November 07, 2009
Klady's Friday Estimates - Scrooged
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November 06, 2009
BYOB Friday
There is a certain joy in a week like this. Mortensen, Herzog, Harrelson, Ben Foster, Amy Gilliam, and Eva Mendes were just some of the very talented group I got to spend time with and chat.
The only problem with that is, I don't get to spend much time doing the blog.
My apologies.
And now, you'll have to excuse me again as I head off to speak to a first time filmmaker, a veteran documentarian, and Ms. Michelle Monaghan. And there's more tomorrow, including a living legend. Yay.
I will be around more over the weekend.
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November 05, 2009
Review-ish - Precious
I really had no intention of returning to Precious in a review of any kind. I saw the film for the first time since Sundance recently and did a couple of interviews with the film’s director and one of its stars. I enjoyed both, felt they were very forthcoming and honest, and I appreciate Lee Daniels’ intentions with the film.
And to be honest, during the awards season, the media monkeys have an irritating habit of taking my opinions about films and beating them into the ground as a reference point for my work in analyzing the season. They are wrong about how I process my thoughts, but if you repeat an inanity often enough, some will come to believe it is true. And I find it galling… even more so to feel compelled to explain myself over and over and over again to people who have already made up their mind about things they can’t really know.
But then I read Scott Fondas’ LA Weekly review of Precious and I was inspired to discuss it… so this is not a real review, but a reflective think piece… but some will see it as a review..
Anyway…
Foundas hits exactly what is wrong about so much of the response to Precious. Or to be clearer, he is shockingly clear on why his review is an intellectual pretzel.
The basic premise is that Precious, although he finds very little good to say about it, is worthy because it is not a Spielberg movie… which is to say that it is raw and angry and not sentimental at all. For him, Speilberg’s sentimentality, as defined in this review by The Color Purple, is a manipulative lie.
But he is dead wrong.
Spielberg’s sentimentalism is completely honest. It is not real, as though a documentary. But the emotional manipulation is not coy or tricky. It is a freight train. (And yes, I feel that way about Schindler’s List as well… a movie of which I have never been a huge fan, other than as an admirer of the craft involved.)
Lee Daniels’ Precious is about as manipulative a movie as you will ever see. And for me, this kind of movie and this movie specifically, is exactly what guys like Foundas are always trying to pin on Spielberg. This is a movie about a deeply broken person who can be patched up a bit, but is on a straight line to a living and dying horror. Daniels, who shows real skill, does not leave the audience with that feeling.
Simply, I feel that the film is a less entertaining, less skillful version of Silence of The Lambs, with Mo’Nique as Hannibal Lechter, Clarice “Precious” Jones as Clarice and the girl in the pit with a touch of both characters from Leaving Las Vegas added in. But the key to the reaction… you get to walk away from the film clean as a jaybird.
No question, there are people who will walk away with real and lasting emotional connections to this material. But for the white, middle class film critic… Precious Jones and her life is so far away from any reality that 99.9% of film critics have ever experienced in real life, she naturally morphs into an object. And because the movie does not insist that we honestly face the full ugliness and hopelessness of her story, that is leaves us feeling bad for her, feeling good for her, and going “ooooh” when she gets hit in the head not once, but twice, by heavy objects being thrown by the parent that didn’t rape her innumerable times and impregnate her twice, we are able to leave the theater feeling like we experienced something that makes us better people without carrying the painful emotion of being members of society who did not have to suffer this way or having to do anything about those who suffer this way every single day while living within 10 miles of us.
In the end, Foundas’ review, which is hardly a rave, reads like he faced the choice – is this edgy or is it a hot mess or something in between? – and decided to forgive the movie all of its trespasses because of its alleged realness. He swings from, "In her broad outlines, the character of Claireece Precious Jones risks sounding like the epitome of ghetto cliché," to "we understand how Precious’ story is, for all its commonalities with other abused black women, uniquely her own," all in the same paragraph. It's soooo unflinching!
He has that right. And so do you.
Precious is going to be discussed a lot over the next few months. So if you care about that discussion, you must see the film and you must decide for yourself. And even with my words in your head, if they are sticky, I am confident that you will decide for yourself based on pure emotion, which Daniels does know how to deliver. Perhaps you will be smitten. Perhaps you will be repulsed. But you are quite likely to feel strongly.
And there is something to be said for that, whichever way you feel. That is the inherent joy of cinema roulette, no?
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The Numbers On Ho Ho Dough
Only 14 Christmas movies in history have grossed more than $50 million domestic. Only one (Christmas Vacation) opened in December... and that was December 1. One other, The Nightmare Before Christmas, opened in October, presumably selling "nightmare" before "Christmas."
The first film to successfully break the "open it the week before Thanksgiving" rule to great success was Disney's The Santa Clause, which opened on November 11 to $19.3 million and did 7.5 times that number ($144.8m) by the time it died shortly after New Years, as all these movies do. That result had a lot to do with how well-liked that particular movie was... but there was also an understanding that Christmas titles could start early than previously traditional.
Santa Clause 2 opened on November 1, push this even further, and did 4.8x opening. Santa Clause 3 opened Nov 3 and did 4.33x opening. Elf opened on Nov 7 and did 5.57x opening. The Polar Express opened Nov 10 and did 7.75x opening.
There are still some success stories opening later. Bad Santa, Christmas With The Cranks, and last year's Four Christmases all opened right on top of Thanksgiving and did well. But all three films also skewed a bit older than most other X-mas films.
Interestingly, the worst multiple for a Christmas film that would gross over $50 million domestic was Four Christmases' 3.87x... maybe they would have liked to have opened earlier, in retrospect.
So whatever does happen with A Christmas Carol this weekend, it's not too early to open it. And you can bet on the final domestic gross being somewhere between 4x opening and 6x opening.
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Press Release - Giving Fans A Perso-normal Reason To Buy The DVD
Be a part of the phenomenon by getting YOUR NAME featured in the credits on the DVD!
Register your name HERE before Monday 11/9 at 12 Noon Pacific and your name will be featured on the DVD!
The release date of the DVD has not currently been set.
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Cinema Eye Doc Award Nominations
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DP/30 - Precious' Paula Patton
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Press Release - DK LA Upped At Sony
DAVID KAMINOW NAMED SONY PICTURES’
PRESIDENT, WORLDWIDE STRATEGIC MARKETING
CULVER CITY, Calif., November 5, 2009 – David Kaminow has been named president, Worldwide Strategic Marketing, it was announced today by Marc Weinstock, president, Sony Pictures Worldwide Marketing.
Kaminow will report to Weinstock and continue to oversee all worldwide theatrical market research efforts for the studio. In this newly created position, Kaminow will be integral in helping to create and implement a film's worldwide marketing platform and message for all divisions of the department. Additionally, Kaminow will work on film brand management and franchise evaluation for the worldwide marketing group.
Continue reading "Press Release - DK LA Upped At Sony"
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What Does The MPAA Waiver Request Really Mean?
Okay... hate this... but once again, a hysterical headline/post by Rushi Finkebaugh is so out of touch with reality or logic that I have to do an explainer.
Yesterday, the MPAA put out a release about a FCC filing they made about "SOC," which is Selectable Output Control. What's that? Basically, it would allow the studios to electronically disable outputs on TVs, DVRs, etc when they stream High Def images into your home. The purpose for this is to make home piracy a lot more difficult. It would also allow the studios - as you already see in many PPV offerings on both cable and satellite - to control the life of any filmed product in this category after it flows into your home.
So... if they decided to try to day-n-date the next Harry Potter, this would allow WB to sell one showing of the film, disallow DVR recording of any kind, as well as to disable the outputs of anything other than a HDMI cable from your cable/satellite box to the TV. Theoretically, it would also allow them to sell you a DVR-able delivery for a different price point... say, $10 to watch the movie once and $30 to DVR it right then and have it to watch whenever you like.
That said, unlike Hysteria Girl's misunderstanding (surely given to her by some other hysteric), this does not appear to be a major step towards day-n-date, but rather, a bit of MPAA bait-n-switch, giving the FCC an excuse to allow SOC, which is clearly not about expanding consumer options, but limiting them.
The thing is, for me, this is not objectionable. I believe that copyright must be protected in any way possible, regardless of the cost to the consumer. The relationship between the studios and the consumer should be determined in the marketplace, not by making studio self-protection illegal on the basis - as Public Knowledge seems to love to argue - of illegal piracy existing on the web, therefore somehow invalidating legitimate copyright standards... as in "Well... it's already out of control... illegal downloads can be found on the web on the day of release... so anarchy seems like the best choice moving forward."
I am no tech prude, but I continue to be stunned by how many smart people don't seem to understand that they are advocating burning down the village because there are homeless people and only by burning down the village can we all be equal.
Public Knowledge also doesn't seem to understand that the future of VOD for independent distributors - who are still just surviving with their VOD efforts and not thriving - is quite a different animal than it is ever likely to be with studios. Revenues from the theatrical release and DVD sell-thru of studio films are, with anything other than the weakest commercial product, many multiples of all but the very strongest independently distributed product. (In other words, there are exceptions on the high and low end, but 90%+ of the time, Indie revenues are a tiny slice of Studio revenues on each film.) So when PK writes, "The MPAA’s members should therefore follow in the footsteps of other studios that make their content available to MVPDs and DVD distributors simultaneously," they are either being disingenuous or ignorant.
Studios are scrambling, as DVD has turned softer, to figure out how to maximize all revenue streams and to understand just how much money is possible in each. The "answer" is whatever combination of delivery systems with whatever kinds of windows will portend the greatest amount of revenue for the majority of studio-level films.
Is it possible that we will see a scenario like the Harry Potter example I suggested above? Absolutely. A studio seeking a cash infusion - think Paramount 2009 or MGM - could find itself compelled to experiment in day-n-date on a wide release, critic unfriendly film - think GI Joe or Fame - on opening weekend, looking to generate potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in one weekend with reduced distribution costs for 3/4 or more of the revenue.
And getting back to Finkebaugh, yes, exhibitors would pass stones if this kind of experiment was coming, most likely considering a boycott of that film's theatrical? Yeah. And they would be making a big mistake, especially if the studio in question went forward anyway and generated multiples of theatrical opening weekend revenues without the 45% cut to exhibitors.
Exhibitors would be much better served to be embracing the idea of experimentation and therefore, positioning themselves to be effective in cooperation with the studios for the long digital future. It used to be that a movie of a stage show marked the end of the stage show's life cycle on stage... but the stage show of Chicago has made revenues that dwarf the grosses of the movie Chicago since the movie came out. Things change and no one really knows how the alchemy will work.
Personally, I think highly selective day-n-date could be workable, for studios and exhibitors. (More than 6 times a year and I think it will cannibalize revenues instead of enhancing them.) But I also think that studios have woken up, in the last couple of years, to the absolute value of theatrical as a major revenue stream and are not looking to "betray" exhibitors or, more importantly, to screw themselves by forgetting just how important theatrical exhibition is to their bottom line. The instinct to throw the baby out with the bathwater was seriously diminished when DVD sales - not rentals - started dropping off.
But again, I don’t think SOC and the excuses MPAA is making for wanting it to be allowed by the FCC have much at all to do with narrowing the theatrical release window. Nor is it about NetFlix. It is about getting firm control on the electronic post-theatrical universe that is filled with potholes, which include piracy, but are not exclusive to piracy by any means.
I have always argued that consumers are getting more used to freedom of use every year, from the VHS to the DVD to the DVR to the iPod and other electronics-to-go tools and that consumers would keep the studios from trying to re-set the pricing on all and any home delivery options to something higher. That effort, not the current state of piracy, is what hangs over the film industry like a music business cloud. This would be suicide, opening the door to a majority of people believing they had a right to steal content rather than to pay reasonable amounts.
But like I said above, this is something for the industry to work out through good old capitalistic instincts. And we see that all the time. I will be writing soon about the new push in Blu-ray for this holiday season as the studios try, aggressively, to push this incrementally more profitable disc delivery system forward. The 3D push is not about seeing movies in a new way – except for many of the artists involved – but about the premium ticket pricing that is the only way studios see to raise ticket prices significantly without getting slapped by the public.
See… they want DVD… they want theatrical… and, indeed, they want home delivery in every way they can make it work. And they may someday experiment on a studio level with day-n-date again.
But if you are falling for the “this is about day-n-date eating theatrical” spin that the MPAA is using as “consumer benefit,” thinking this is the primary issue here, you are falling for a classic MPAA-ism. Look here… while we make real changes over here.
Of course, in 2009, why would we expect people who call themselves journalists to actually understand what they are writing about before they post hysterical headlines?
Here is a pdf of the MPAA press release that went out yesterday, which you have likely seen elsewhere.
Here is the pdf of the actual letter from MPAA, that speaks to Public Knowledge quite a bit and which I have not seen anywhere else.
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Ya Think They Wanna Move Some DVDs?
Here are the details for these Exciting Retail Exclusives
**Hollywood Video - Rent/Buy any Star Trek DVD and be entered to win an autographed poster of Uhura (Zoe Saldana).
**Transworld (FYE/Coconuts/Suncoast) - Collectible Steelbook packaging.
**Best Buy - Collectible Gift Set with four pack of badge pins.
**CVS - Consumer Offer. Buy $15 (or more) in itunes gift cards and get the DVD (single disc) for only $9.99 (First week only).
**Target - Limited Edition Collectible Starship Enterprise Packaging on both 2-Disc DVD and 3-Disc Blu-ray.
**Amazon.com - Star Trek Limited Edition Replica Gift Set (Three-Disc + Digital Copy) [Blu-ray]
CANADA
**Best Buy Canada - 3-Disc Special Edition Blu-Ray Collectible packaging – Easily assembles to become a Star Trek U.S.S. Enterprise DVD Package! (same as Target in the US).
**Future Shop - Exclusive 2 Disc Steelbook Edition and 3-Disc Blu-Ray Steelbook Edition.
**HMV - Limited Edition Blu-Ray Gift Set – includes Star Trek 3-Disc Blu-Ray set with Digital copy and Four Replica Starfleet Division Badges.
**Wal-Mart Canada - Exclusive Lenticular o-sleeve package on the Star Trek 2 disc DVD.
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November 04, 2009
DP/30 - Lee Daniels, director of Precious
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November 03, 2009
BYOB Tuesday, Not Presidential Election Day This Time
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November 02, 2009
Interesting... But WRONG
The ongoing evolution of content delivery churns along and as far as the movie business goes, it is amazing how wrong some otherwise smart people are about the future.
MCN linked to two Business Insider re-prints (apparently agreed to by the authors) that continue to misunderstand the most significant part of the future of delivery for studios... there is no reason for a middleman. Simple, huh?
Netflix? It's been a great run that has offered a paradigm shift that was needed by consumers... just like Blockbuster. But this rather bizarre notion that NetFlix has a big future as a distributor of content (as suggested here).
The first studio owned business to launch into the space is EPIX, which is "Viacom, Paramount, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios and Lionsgate." Right now, they are teamed with Verizon FiOS, but that's just the starter program. And while I do think there will be some teaming of companies in the long run, my guess is that it will be less and less... because the nature of the delivery systems will not require a complex infrastructure.
For the next decade - The Experimental Era - there will be partnerships and exclusives and a lot of dancing around how to maximize the base of potential subscribers. But that is a short-term issue, really. You will get content on all hardware, from cells to iPhones (and iPhone knock-offs) to computers to your very own TV that is internet enabled. It will happen.
And when it does, NetFlix will struggle for its existence in very much the same way Blockbuster does now. In fact, NetFlix's extinction is even more pressing because its concept does, indeed, lead to the next step. And when that next step comes, why would anyone pay NetFlix to manage the funnel... at least after The Experimental Era, during which I would expect at least one studio - perhaps all studios - to use the NetFlix platform for their experimentation.
This brings me to the other wrongheaded piece in Business Insider... The Movie Industry Needs To Stop Whining About Piracy And Embrace Digital.
Now, admittedly, the idiot claim that the studio film business is not more rangy in its tastes is because of piracy is as laughable as Dan Rayburn suggests. But, so is the idea that the film industry would be well served by simply giving consumers what they want when they want it at the price the prefer.
The collapse of release windows IS the collapse of the studio movie business. Period. Exclamation point.
I just can't repeat this often enough or loudly enough.
Studios are not afraid of the digital future primarily because of piracy. Piracy is the public whipping boy. And make no mistake... it is real. It is a big brick wall in the way of the expansion of the business into massively populated countries that have been used to cultural piracy as the norm since the dawn of VHS.
But that is going to be almost impossible to turn around.
What the studios can keep in check - and yes, even turn around a bit - is the system of release windows.
And why should they?
Because the post-theatrical window is heading towards and, as noted elsewhere, cannot be stopped from being defined by the demands of consumers. The Long Tail, in film and tv, means a severe and fiscally painful blurring of all the delivery systems and with it, all of the pricing on those delivery systems.
Technology has destroyed the idea of time itself in how people get filmed entertainment at home. Television seasons start and end whenever. Films are available forever on DVD, whether purchased or rented, streamed or watched on cable/satellite networks.
There are only two moments in which price point can be maintained... and if the industry isn't careful, they will collapse too... theatrical release and first post-theatrical release. $10 per ticket and $15 per disc (approximately).
After that, we ARE heading to a Redbox future. If you want to see something, pay the $1 and see it. Done and done. Even more so, I expect that we will see studios package - as with Epix - unlimited post-theatrical content for a monthly flat rate... $10 - $15.
But getting people to buy tickets to go sit in the dark at $10 a pop or to buy the hard copy of the DVD for $15 a pop... that is still and forever will be the holy grail... as it will forever be the highest per unit sale in the game. Even if it isn't where the largest percentage of income is created, it is a unique kind of income creation, the significance of which is overlooked only at the peril of businesses.
After that, it is an easy business. Any moron can give away content for a price so low that there is no price resistance and people can "have what they want when they want it."
Let's do the math. 30 million families paying $12 a month for all of Studio X's content delivered in every way imaginable is $360 million a month, $4.32 billion a year. And from there, the big issue is how much original content has to be created each year in order to keep the subscription base satisfied.
But there is more...
There is still revenue to be derived from free, ad-driven television delivery. There is still theatrical release. There is still DVD sell-through if that window is maintained. And there is pay-per-view for television and theatrical product on a pay-per-view basis.
It will be a tricky soup, balancing out consumer value versus cost of production. If your post-theatrical company isn't delivering The Dark Knight or Up or Slumdog Millionaire, will your subscribers churn?
Flip side, if you own The Dark Knight and it is available only on WPPTC (Warner Bros Post Theatrical Channel), it leaves a very large audience that, in theory, will be motivated to either buy WBPTC on a monthly basis or to purchase the DVD (which will be Blu-ray, regular DVD, and a download), since they can't see the film in post-theatrical otherwise.
Of course, there are problems. $12 per studio is $72 a month in premium channels (expect HBO to be Warners' channel, Showtime Paramount's, Encore's Disney or Universal, etc). Perhaps that's too pricey.
The upside, however, could be that the next-era American Idol keeps people on FoxNet in spite of a bad year for theatrical movies... and that a great year for movies keeps people on when the TV shows are lagging.
Anyway...
The most dangerous thing that the industry could do is to listen to guys like Rayburn and to crawl along with small and constant responses to technological advances and "what people want." It's not about what people want. That's the kind of thinking that content creators have... but we are all punks, financially. Neither Microsoft or Apple have given people "what they want." They tell us what we want, how we want it, and when we can pay (again) for the next generation.
Yes... the on-demand future is coming. But if you give people "what they want," there will be little new content of value to demand, as the cost of new production will become increasingly illogical. New content competition will drop away. And then, slowly build again.
There is something we can all recognize in our busy adult lives. If we don't find a reason to focus on content, we forget to focus on content. There are only so many hours in a day. Some shows can survive this... like Law & Order. Others cannot... like Heroes. And we know from YouTube what people tend to watch most widely when given a world of choices... bad soft-core porn and cats falling in toilets.
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I Know Johnny Depp And Sir, You Are No...
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10th LA Film Critics Member To Lose Gig In The Last 18 Months
Out of 52 members, the organization now boasts just 11 writers with full-time jobs as film critics.
The "generous offer" note above was made by Fishbowl in response to the Facebook post.
Added Note, 4:47p - Carina Chocano, who joined the group just weeks before being fired by LAT, has apparently given up her slot. Her replacement, Betsey Sharkey, is not on the group's web site list of members and I don't know whether she applied for membership this summer or not. But Carina adds another number to the roster of those in the group who have lost their jobs in the last 18 months.
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Travel Posters c/o Up's DVD Release
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DP/30 - Roger Corman
Producer of the new NetFlix series, Splatter... and Honorary Oscar Winner 2009.
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November 01, 2009
Press Release - Another Great Story Of A Doc Changing Real Lives
10/29/09
GATES DONATES $1 MILLION TO EGYPT’S RECYCLERS
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation awards $1 million to The Spirit of Youth Association, the non-governmental organization profiled in Garbage Dreams.
At the International Sustainability Conference in Cairo from October 27-29, waste recyclers from all over the world worked with members from organizations such as the Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE), the World Bank, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA) to discuss the sustainability issues we are facing in the 21st century.
The conference ended with a screening of the documentary Garbage Dreams, winner of multiple awards including the 2009 Al Gore REEL Current Award at the Nashville Film Festival. (http://www.garbagedreams.com/). This coming of age story follows three teenage boys involved with the Spirit of Youth Association, the community based organization of Zaballeen, (Arabic for “Garbage People”) as they embark on a journey to turn their century old recycling trade into a 21st century job. A heartwarming applause concluded the film when all three boys profiled in the film, Adham, Nabil, Osama and their teacher, Laila stood up with the film’s director, Mai Iskander, to greet the audience and to answer questions.
Melanie Walker, Senior Program Officer for Special Initiatives, Global Development Program of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation joined them at the front of the room and announced a new partnership between the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Spirit of Youth Association (SOY).
“I feel so strange stepping up here with all these amazing, amazing people. We never had a movie screening at the Gates Foundation. . . This year maybe a month and a half ago, we invited Mai [Iskander] to come screen the film [Garbage Dreams] for us at our foundation.” She went on to highlight Special Initiatives’ goal of empowering impoverished peoples of the world by helping to integrate their voices into the city planning process. When speaking of her own reaction to the film, Ms Walker said, “…as you mentioned, it [Garbage Dreams] is very eye opening. Because you can hear about it, but then you see it and it becomes very much more real and you start to think about ways to try to help and be involved. We are privileged to have had that opportunity . . . We have recently come up with a grant that will help support groups like the Zaballeen here in Egypt: a $1 million dollar grant… will help support the work here in Cairo.”
Ezzat Naem Guindy, the executive director of the Spirit of Youth Association responded, “We are honored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for honoring us as Zaballeen. . . We will use these funds to build the capacity of our team, the capacity of our people, and to spread income generating projects and awareness such as the source segregation campaign . . . So that Garbage Dreams becomes a reality.”
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Weekend Estimates by Klady - 11/01/09
Okay... more drama...
In the first 5 days, This Is It blew Hannah/Miley off the map to be the biggest concert film of all time worldwide. Finkebaugh and the others who foolishly bit deeply on the hype around this film - as though this hype was any different than the hype for every other film out there - are still busy trying to sell this as a disappointment.
Do people understand this... because it is not the first time I have brought it up. We are now responding to hype as though it is news and then attacking the news because "we" bought into the hype.
This Is It is now a lock to be the #2 documentary of all time, as it will pass March of The Penguins' $127m worldwide in the next few days. Only Fahrenheit 9/11 will stand in the way of it becoming the biggest documentary of all-time, with the $223 million cume likely too big a hurdle to overcome. Even so, when you start looking at DVD sales, much less record sales, this film is pretty much guaranteed to create more revenue than any documentary in history, probably tripling F/911's DVD sales at minimum.
How very disappointing!
Finkebaugh and others who have given themselves whiplash switching between ecstasy and mockery over the numbers for this film are still trying to cover their own asses. "CON ARTISTS!," is NIkki's headline, even though she and everyone else who covers this stuff had to know that an extension was inevitable... just as it was with the Miley Cyrus movie... and in that case, not very successfully. The domestic box office grew only 18.5% from the extension past the first 10 days.
"But it's not the biggest opening of all-time worldwide!" Waaaaa! "But the concert promoter selling this thing told us that it would have a $250m worldwide first weekend!" Waaaaaaa!
(ADDED 11:27a - A blog commenter smartly pointed out another hypocrisy. Isn't this a close relation to the winning scam that Paramount ran on Paranormal Activity... claiming that audience demand expanded the release when the theaters were booked months in advance? The big difference... the media felt like they were part of the win there and this time, they feel like suckers for having bought into AIG hype.)
And this is not just a single case. Bruno did about $140m worldwide... which was a lot less than Borat's $265m worldwide... but it still covered the $45 million that the movie was purchased for and put $32 million towards the publicity-heavy marketing campaign. A profitable film.
Does anyone talk about The Proposal grossing more and costing significantly less than Inglourious Basterds or Angels & Demons being the #5 worldwide film of the year or Up being touted as the movie that would mark the end of Pixar's hot run or that Confessions of a Shopaholic outgrossed Julie& julia worldwide?
The media isn't doing its job covering the box office, even if they are fighting like dogs in heat to get to the numbers FIRST.
And sadly, this is the canary in the media coal mine.
Anyone still pushing the idea of This Is It as a disappointment should be publicly ridiculed. Aggressively. You know, every movie gets greenlit with the hopes of it being a huge success. If studio executives took every producer/salesman on face value, then 99.9% of all movie are a disappointment. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen hoped to get to the billion dollar mark. Disappointing. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs is the highest grossing animated film in history internationally, but didn't even get to $200 million in America. Disappointing. X-Men Origins: Wolverine grossed $86 million less worldwide than X-Men: The Last Stand and cost about $70 million less. Still... disappointing. And of course, Harry Potter VI started a about 15% faster than any other Potter film but ended up being just the #3 grosser in the series. So very disappointing.
It is still true... hyping up the media sets studios up for harsh press if numbers are not as hyped. But the idea that the media is giving up responsibility for its reporting to publicists... not just accepting information, but choosing not to process the obviously-skewed information with any effort more aggressive than a rewrite of the facts or a little semantic pushback when we are somehow personally disappointed... it's horrible.
And let's not pretend it's innocent. "Projections by the studio were not met" is reporting a fact. "Disappointment" is claiming an emotion that reflects the intent to slap back at the feeling of having been set up for more. Plus, reporting what other studios are saying as though they are impartial observers is another remarkable break in trust with readers.
It is time for journalists - especially on the web, but hardly only online - to stop acting like publicists, so anxious about building audience that we don't act on our responsibility to readers to report and instead, try to serve them what we think they want. More hype.
Posted by dpoland at 10:05 AM | Comments (36) | Retweet
Press Release - NON-EXCLUSIVE
8:27am - Reported by LA Times @ 9:24a as a "First Look"...
This release will be updated within the next 90 minutes with international highlights:
“MICHAEL JACKSON’S THIS IS IT” MAKES MOTION PICTURE HISTORY AS THE HIGHEST-GROSSING CONCERT FILM OF ALL-TIME WORLDWIDE
BEHIND-THE-SCENES LOOK AT LEGENDARY KING OF POP TAKES $101 MILLION IN FIVE DAYS, BREAKING ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE GENRE
--Release Extended Through Thanksgiving in the United States; Canada and Most Territories Around the World to Announce Extensions--
CULVER CITY, Calif., November 1, 2009 – Since Michael Jackson’s THIS IS IT was released October 28 in theaters worldwide, the late performer’s fans everywhere have responded, already making it the highest-grossing concert film of all-time with a worldwide total of $101 million and counting, it was announced today by Jeff Blake, chairman, Sony Pictures Entertainment Worldwide Marketing & Distribution. With an estimated gross of $32.5 million domestically and $68.5 internationally, the film’s worldwide take in just five days of release has surpassed the record previously established by Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds (which had a lifetime worldwide gross of $71.3 million). Michael Jackson's THIS IS IT is directed by Kenny Ortega.
In response to the tremendous interest and desire to see the film around the world, the studio has also announced that it is extending its limited engagement. In the United States, the film will play through Thanksgiving weekend. Canada and most international territories will be announcing extensions of various lengths soon.
Posted by dpoland at 10:01 AM | Comments (4) | Retweet
October 31, 2009
Friday Estimates by Klady - These Is Them
Title - Distrib - Gross * - Theater - % Change – Cume
This is It - Sony - 7.9 - 3481 - New - 19.1
Paranormal Activity - Par - 5.8 - 2404 - 23% - 74
Couples Retreat - Uni - 2.4 - 3026 - 35% - 82.9
Law Abiding Citizen - Overture - 2.3 - 2764 - 43% - 46.4
Where the Wild Things Are - WB - 1.9 - 3645 - 56% - 58.6
Saw VI - Lions Gate - 1.9 - 3036 - 73% - 19.1
The Stepfather - Sony - 1.1 - 2346 - 48% - 22.5
Cirque de Freak: Vampire's Assistant - Uni - 1 - 2754 - 57% - 8.7
Astro Boy - Summit - 0.95 - 3020 - 48% - 8.8
Amelia - Searchlight - 0.9 - 1070 - 29% - 6.2
Also Debuting
The Boondock Saints II - Apparition - 0.27 - 68
London Dreams - Studio 18 - 39,700 - 51
Aladin - Eros - 17,500 - 56
The House of the Devil - Magnolia - 9,400 - 3
Skin - JDF - 6,300 - 4
Gentlemen Broncos - Searchlight - 5,200 - 2
Storm - Film Movement - 2,850 - 2
Looking for Palladin - Wildcat - 1,300 - 1
==========
"it is certainly not the posthumous blockbuster that the Jackson estate had anticipated."
Oy.
"My $90M all-in number looks like a pipe dream," one rival studio exec told me after the pic's weak bow.
Are you f-ing kidding me????
Are we going to start judging sporting events based on what Don King or Vince McMahon tell us they anticipate?
What delusional planet do people come from when they think that this movie was going to be so much bigger than it is? Instead of looking at the facts of what is, there is this crazy need to make it all about some people's wild fantasy of what it could be.
It is, by this hour, the second biggest first-run concert film of ALL TIME. Concert films - and almost every other one involves the actual concert experience and not bits and pieces slickly thrown together to offer an incomplete glimpse at what might have been - are not a huge box office business. Never have been. The reason I included the phrase "first run" is that Woodstock is thought to have grossed over $50 million after a decade plus of playing around the world in revival house after revival house. Of course, in this era, most of that gross is replaced by DVD sales and rentals, which will dwarf the $50 million figure, even in this DVD economy. If you want to use the other crazy stat of the week - the one that makes Paranormal Activity the most profitable movie ever - Woodstock is easy the most profitable concert film against costs in history.
Anyway...
This Is it is benefiting from a market that is afraid to release a movie over Halloween weekend, so there is no other wide release. (And indeed, it will pay a price tonight, as most other films will.) It is also being slowed a bit by not being able to expand its event feel with more IMAX screens, as only limited screens have been released to the film and in most cases, only after 9pm. And, of course, it is fighting the biggest problem there is for a film like this... everyone knows the DVD is coming and coming soon and that there is very little new material in this film... one song... which is already on the radio.
My guess is that this movie stops at $40m/$50m domestic... and that is a massive success. But then again, listen to Disney, which did $19m with the Jonas Bros phenomenon, or Paramount, which did less than $19 million domestic with U2 (back in the day), The Rolling Stones by Scorsese, and Neil Young COMBINED, or listen to The Weinsteins, who can tell you about doing less than $19 million with Madonna at the height of her music career and controversy career.
Yeah... This Is It is soooooo disappointing!
And this is from someone who, I'll remind, would not have seen the film were I not overnighted tickets from IMAX, thought the film was modestly enjoyable, and wouldn't push anyone to spend the time and money to go see the thing when there are quality small films out there to see in any major city.
I just hate the lie - and it is a lie, whether intentionally so or not... repeating someone else's falsehoods is not a form of truth telling - that this film is disappointing at the box office. It is going to do about twice what was a reasonable expectation. It will be the biggest documentary of the year by 3 or 4 times and the #3 doc of all time worldwide behind F/911 and March of The Penguins, having crushed Miley Cyrus' total international gross in its very first day.
This is truly a sickness. It is right along side, for me, attacking Obama less than a month after he got into office for failing to change the economy and now, less than a year into his presidency, trying to paint him as a failure for not already passing the most significant American legislation - health care - since LBJ.
Meanwhile...
We all must continue to applaud Paranormal Activity, which continues to outperform my expectations week after week.
I am still frustrated by the overhype, but in this case, it has pushed the ball up the hill to remarkable results. Does this kind of surprise success make it harder form something like This Is It? Obviously so. And as Drew McWeeny points out in SMF 7, Paramount did a great job of selling their marketing hook, that the film was driven by demand... when in fact, it was planned to go wide with theaters booked and ads bought, from the beginning.
But PA is not a new paradigm for marketing. It is a classic paradigm... well, "classic" when it works. And it has worked here, well executed, well timed, and kept far away from its true birthing room as an idea, Steven Spielberg's screening room.
Both of these films are remarkable successes based on high quality hype. But one has hyped its hype better than the other. The biggest difference in perception of the bottom line is that, not reality.
Posted by dpoland at 09:15 AM | Comments (11) | Retweet
October 30, 2009
Super Movie Friends 7
SMF is SUPER-SIZED this week... over an hour on three segments with HitFix's Drew McWeeny, Jen Yamato, and Cinematical's Todd Gilchrist on HORROR. All three segments link to the others and there are mp3s for the whole thing. Enjoy!
Posted by dpoland at 08:29 PM | Comments (25) | Retweet
20 Weeks To Oscar - 20 Weeks To Go
Quietly – amazingly quietly – Avatar is becoming a serious Best Picture player. Fox isn’t pushing it. They aren’t advertising it. They are doing what they have done for years… sell the movie and if awards come, so be it. And no matter the media response to the teaser trailer, you can feel the ground rumbling under the earth’s crust for this one now. The movie is going to be very, very big.
Even if it fails by some standards, it is almost impossible to imagine the film grossing less than $500 million worldwide. That would put it with Potter 6, Ice Age 3, and Trannies 2 (in that order… do people realize that IA3 has outgrossed Tr2 worldwide?) in that financial category. This is very rarified air for a title that is neither a sequel, animated or based on a major literary work… you know, what grandpa used to call “an original.”
There are sixty-seven $500m worldwide grossers in history and only Ghost, The Day After Tomorrow, Forrest Gump, Armageddon, Night At The Museum, I Am Legend, Hancock, The Sixth Sense, Star Wars, ET, and Jurassic Park qualify in that rarified grouping. Five of the eleven were Best Picture nominated. Only one won. But still…
Posted by dpoland at 08:24 PM | Comments (39) | Retweet
Battsek Out At Miramax
Daniel was well liked and rather effective.
I don't know. The New Disney is really, really not going to be The Old Disney... not even The New Old Disney.
It as though Bob Iger, who for years has seemed to be playing a very, very smart game of chess in reestablishing what Eisner and Katzenberg had built after they had allowed it to overmature and ripen into too many personal vendettas and self-reflections, has suddenly gotten God and is going to try to turn Disney 3.0 into a hard-driving future-focused leader instead of being a solid, sleepy, history-considering village.
There is something honorable about Iger and his new right-hand, Rich Ross, knowing their intent well enough to not bother keeping Miramax alive as anything much more than a non-theatrical brand. (That's what Battsek's exit suggests... and it also suggests more to come.) But there is also something a little bit scary about a company like this galloping so intensely and almost without any restraint towards an uncertain future.
I've been watching the well-curated, tremendous 4-disc Blu-ray packages of Up and Monsters. Inc. and it struck me yesterday just how different the Disney brand may be soon... how many more icons will be placed in the background of The Castle in years to come.
The only good thing about this news is that it will create an even greater vacuum in the art house distribution world... and no matter how tough things are, nature abhors a vacuum. But as small as a Miramax business should be at a company like D3.0, not having one is just not smart. The future of the film business is the ability to play to ALL fields, as the revenues for all filmed entertainment gets smaller. Studios that throw away $10 million a year here and $10 million a year there are setting themselves up for dangerous waters ahead. Take a look at the history of the 1960s in the business. Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
Posted by dpoland at 01:09 PM | Comments (6) | Retweet
October 29, 2009
Circle Of Jerk du Jour
Gawker made a big deal out of catching Nikki Finke re-spinning her ignorance, but they make it seem like a unique event and not the daily reality of Hollywood's answer to Rush Limbaugh... all self-promotion, all talking points fed to her by others, all rage and unearned arrogance over insight and knowledge, all the time.
But the idiocy around anyone calling This Is It "disappointing" is a classic and epic form of insider masturbation... all insiders... most journalists.
On Tuesday night - Thursday, the film will come close to matching the 3-day weekend opening of The Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience. Before this weekend is over, it will be the second highest grossing concert film in movie history with only the $65 million run of the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour ahead of it domestically.
A $30 million domestic gross for this piece of kitsch history will be a massive success. It likely means $70m+ worldwide, which puts the film about $45 million away from profitability. The big question for Sony, in terms of profitability, will be DVD sales and record sales. And that DVD is more likely than most to sell strongly... at least in the 6 or 7 million range, which would put Sony well into the black before the record sales.
Who set this up to be a perceived failure? An overzealous press - which yes, includes Rush Finkebaugh - hyping this thing into the stratosphere... overconsidering the information offered by the electronic ticker sellers... trying to draw eyeballs to their various blogs instead of thinking.
And to be fair to Darling Nikki, it is not she who needs to be smacked for listening to Sony insiders who were mouth breathing about this film last week... even if she needs to go back to Journalism 101: Don't Be A Laydown, Use Your Brain. It is whoever at Sony told her that they were expecting the film to do better than the tracking and pre-sale based estimates. Dumb.
This is the opposite number to Paranormal Activities, where the media has tripped over its own feet to praise the grosses of the film. And indeed, a $15,00 production plus another minimum of $500,000 in finishing costs, millions spent to make prints, etc, is more impressive against a gross of over $50 million than this $60m investment in a concert film, album, and DVD. But it will still work out to be a good piece of business for Sony.
I guess that's not enough.
Posted by dpoland at 09:26 PM | Comments (15) | Retweet
