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I'm seeing Crash tomorrow night and I can't wait. I think it looks excellent. I will pay to see Kingdom of Heaven and House of Wax this weekend, with the hope that one is a good movie while the other is silly fun.

I saw some story recently that asked the question will Kingdom of Heaven revive the epic? And my reaction was NO. Is there an audience for a movie about the crusades? There certainly wasn't for Alexander or Troy.

TROY did 500m theatrical alone and kazillions more on homevid. ya reckon people could stop referring to this film as a bomb now! Once again, I see the world revolves around the USA.

WAX would have greatly benefitted from those 1000 polarised screens going up at year end. The only wax that scares Paris is a bad brazilian one.

Yeah you do have to wonder how a movie that makes $500 million is considered a bomb.

I didnt hear anyone calling it a bomb, just a disappointment. When a film costs $200 mill and makes $130 in the US, it has to at least be considered an underperformer, no matter how much it makes outside this country.

I agree, it did underperform domestically. But clearly there was a massive audience for Troy. Did it really cost $200 million? I never came across a figure higher than $150 million when discussing its budget.

I saw 'Crash' last weekend at a sneak peak. Overally I thought it was really well done, although it lacked the emotional punch that it needed to really send the message home.
The performances were really good, and I was pleasantly surprised by Sandra Bullock (for whom I have not much love for). Also Ludacris revealed a side that hints at even better things to come.
Paul Haggis is caught in a bit of a weird position though, because of 'Million Dollar Baby'. People will probably be expecting great things but this just isn't M$B - which can be a good or a bad thing depending on how you liked M$B.
'Crash' has a lot going for it, but I don't think it'll find an audience until DVD. I hope I'm proven wrong though.
I did write a review of it which I sent out to friends. If you're interested in reading it, drop me a line.

Excuse the Overally overall typo. Clearly I've been out in the sun too long.

Anything like the Cronenberg movie?

No Hitchhikers or Revenge, but the House of FUCKING
WAX? Man, that's as confusing as Doc Rivers' coaching
style. Boam, dense, of course a domestically released
film will be viewed as a bomb. If it fails to succeed
HERE. Of course, Warners are very happy with the
end result. Yet, they would have been much happier
if Troy did more of that cash in the US and not
overseas. Troy could be viewed as a modest success
in the US, but a fucking blockbuster overseas. Where
they love the white stars of the US.

Kingdom should do between 30 and 50. IT's R, but
it appears to be quality. If it gets decent reviews,
then it should have a solid weekend. If it's another
stinker. Hey, it should make Matchstick Men money
here, and Troy money abroad. Where they loves our
white people! HOO YEAH!

Different strokes for different folks, right?

Filmmakers beware of Mike Broder and Small Planet Pictures. They have been in breach of contract Ie they havent paid for the film Rockets Redglare and have ignored their contractual obligations since November of 2004. Small Planet Pictures are financed in part by Palasades Pictures. Mike Broder is a liar and a thief, period.

I'm all over Kingdom of Heaven, but I'll steer as far from House of Wax as humanly possible in perpetuity.

Ridley Scott is on somewhat of a roll. Hopefully his streak won't end as quickly as Soderberg's did when I went nuts for him around the time of Out of Sight and The Limey. Though I am strangely curious about this HDNet deal that was announced last week.

Lazy dumb bastard - between 30-50.. why not really go out on a limb and say it'll do between 20-70...

Jeff: I feel it's safe to say "Kingdom of Heaven" will do between 10 and 90 million opening weekend. Spam Dooley told me so.

i'm getting a sneak at SITH in 3 days.. is this when they're showing all media?

I saw Crash last week and it IS good and I hope people can find a cinema it's at and see it. I really thought Thandie Newton was great in it and Sandra Bullock (despite having a relatively small role) was excellent. Solid work by everyone else who isn't Brendan Fraser also.

The cinematography recalled Collateral (which is a good thing) and the music was just sublime. Screenplay was a little off at times, but i'll forgive that. I really liked it. B+.

Onto next weekend (I love how this weekend hasn't even finished yet and we're talking about next w/e.)

I reckon Kingdom of Heaven could do around $35mil (Gladiator type opening) but hold pretty well through the month. House of Wax I am still adament will be a modest hit. If it flops then I'll gladly say I was wrong but I have a feeling here. This one looks FUN, silly and actually kinda creepy (unlike, say, White Noise and Boogeymen). I know some friends who HATE horror movies and never see them but are actually interested in seeing this one.

Plus, it co-stars the president of the world: Paris Hilton.

oh, and btw, it's not only "urban-based" critics who like Crash. I've read a lot of reviews praising it.

I will play "lazy dumb bastard" boam. You will play
"arrogant piece of shit!" HOYEAH! Dude, did you
not notice the variables? It should do 30 easy, but
if it gets the DAP from the critics or generally
has some good early word of mouth. This flick could
come close to 50. But here, on Monday morning, I
will guess around 42.5 million. Choke on that like
Joe Pilato, bitch.

I haven't seen the Cronenberg 'Crash'. Never really appealed to me. Should it?

You guys have a hell of a lot more faith in "Kingdom of Heaven" than I do. Honestly, I hope you're right. Still, considering no wide-release movie has had a really huge opening since "Hitch," I will be completely astonished if the R-rated, seemingly somber and high-minded KOH reaches $35 million on opening weekend. For that to happen, I think the reviews absolutely must compare the film quite favorably and prominently to "Gladiator." If not, KOH may be DOA.

By the way, am I the only one who thinks the title "Kingdom of Heaven" itself may be a turn-off? Doesn't get your imagination or heart racing on its own like the title "Gladiator" did. Or is that just an example of my blue-state values showing through?

I had KINGDOM pegged at 28m until that second trailer came out with that wah-wah hotlicks-hair tossin-rawk-song attached. Jesus H Christ, what coke fueled creative came up with that sell !?!

every horror movies does alright week one. she made a good choice doing a horror movie for her first starring role.

I'm looking forward to "Crash" since the trailer hit the web. It's one of those trailers that gives you shivers :) It looks like a new "Magnolia" (which I loved) also with an outstanding cast. Don Caedle, Thandie Newton, Brendan Fraser, Jennifer Esposito & Sandra Bullock and many more - there isn't one actor/actress I don't like. And judging by the trailer they are doing a fine job.
I also like the story/metaphor since I think it isn't far from the truth - not only in L.A. ...

After ROTS, the biggest May opener will be Madagascar. KOH will have respectable b.o., but will do well overseas just like Troy did.

Why will House of Wax bomb?????

Because we have to pay to see it. Anyone who actually likes Paris Hilton and want to watch her can simply turn on the E! channel.

Remember that stupid "reality movie"...Forever Cancun, Forever Eden, whatever, that no one saw. Same thing. If it's for free on TV, no one will shill to see it in a theatre.

I think "Heaven" will do upper 20's to low 30's. But the reviews better be good, a friend of mine works at Fox and she's told me that the marketing department has been working all weekend to plug new TV spots because the current ones aren't cutting it. I can't wait to see it.

Anyone else out there amused/amazed by the cros-promotional spots TNT and Fox have prepared for "Kingdom of Heaven" and the NBA playoffs? No, I'm not kidding. Jeremy Irons AND Charles Barkley in the SAME 30-sceond spot. Sweet.

Considering what it cost to make (including the additional $ needed after the set burned down), it would be pretty difficult for House of Wax to bomb. And it won't. Look at the genre's track record in 2005 alone. Why would this one be any different? People will be more than happy to pay to see Paris Hilton die, and the trailer gets the job done, much like the trailers for the TCM remake, Amityville Horror, etc.

Stella, different strokes indeed, but House of Wax
should be the first of the NEW GENRE films to go
up against some real competition. In the first
weekend, if I remember correctly. So House will
either get waxed, fuck puns, or it will have a decent
to nice opening. Something in the teens, but this
is the weekend. Summer starts this weekend. Let
the endless slamming and praising of Summer films;
BEGIN!

You think Kingdom of Heaven is serious competition for House of Wax (I realize the former is going to be #1 this weekend)? I don't think so. Should be two R's that find their audience without hurting each other much. Speaking of that, does that happen much, two R-rated movies that open on the same weekend and do strong box office?

Kingdom of Heaven seems to be getting good pre-release buzz in the mainstream media (e.g., thumbs up from E&R), it has a massive publicity push this week, with specials on half a dozen channels and the actors on every outlet imaginable, and it has Orlando Bloom's huge fanbase, many of whom are under 17 and will need to drag mom or dad along to see the film. If the reviews continue to be decent, a $35-$40 million opening isn't a silly proposition. If it gets panned or mixed, more like $25 -- Orlando's girls would go see him read the phone book, for crying out loud.

Lynnie, I have just one word for you:

"Hidalgo."

Remember how everyone was saying Viggo Mortensen's "girls would go see him read the phone book" too?

And where were all of your Orlando Bloom girl groupies when "Ned Kelly" came out?

This guy has not shown any box-office muscle so far. Yes, this may turn his career around. But I still have very strong doubts.

"Crash" is reminiscent of "Magnolia" in the interconnected way...but it's not on that level that PTA took "Magnolia" to. Of course that's just my personal preference. If I were to grade "Crash" I'd give it a B+.

Chester -- Viggo's crowd is, on the whole, older and not nearly as big.

Ned Kelly? It had a tiny, tiny release -- was it even on 30 screens nationwide? I don't think it had any promotion at all, and I think a lot of Orlando's fans missed it until it hit DVD.

You may be right, but I guess we'll see this weekend :)

Rotten Tomatoes hasn't posted an official Tomatometer yet for "Kingdom of Heaven," but it does list four reviews. For what it's worth at this point, the film is at 50% right now and the praise it's gotten on the RT postings has been unmistakably restrained. If that keeps up, it'll be dead and buried after its second weekend.

I don't really think you can put much, if any, faith into those whole four reviews that are currently posted at rottentomatoes.

Four reviews is your sample? Thats weak. Give it some time and relax.

SB and Mark, we are all just trying to read the tea leaves here, so why not put stock in those four informed opinions? They are from fairly solid sources. One of them is among the most respected critics writing today, Anthony Lane of The New Yorker. And IMHO Emmanuel Levy is no slouch either.

Moreover, if you took the time to read the four reviews, you saw that they were all pretty uniform in their assessments, if not necessarily in their emphases: "Kingdom of Heaven" deserves at best a grade of "B"; it's a run-of-the-mill historical spectacle, nowhere near great: and Orlando Bloom proves he cannot carry a film. Sure, that's the word from only four reviews out of several hundred to come, and those four are not anywhere near the most widely read critics. But I suspect they are indicative of what we will see as the general consensus.

Anthony Lane, while an amusing writer, is a crappy critic. He's more interested in coming up with quips and puns than real critical observations.

There are now seven reviews...still too few to gauge box office by. Wait until we hear from the Orlando Sentinels and Minneapolis Star-Tribunes.

God, I totally wrote everything out and then for some reason the post didn't go through. Fuckers.

Brief summary of what I originally wrote.

1. Kingdom of Heaven should succeed due to it's appeal to older audiences and that it looks like another Gladiator and the people who like to feel good about themselves might see it and be all "I think it will win Best Picture at the Oscars" and then they can feel smart.

2. KoH and House of Wax appeal to completely different crowds. I'm sure these two R rated movies can survive alongside each other.

3. House of Wax's trailer WAS a killer (pun not intended).

4. If this weeks new movies perform anything like last weekends then... get ready for the bloodbath of movies to begin.

5. I still remain adament that the Texas Chainsaw Massacre trailer is the greatest trailer ever created. It's an extremely rare occurance when a trailer actually scares me... extremely rare because it's only happened once. With Texas. Funny that.

I already knew Orlando Bloom couldn't carry a movie. Really can't stand him. He's horrible in Troy. Hey, maybe you're right Chester. We'll find out soon. I just don't put much faith into four reviews. The first six or seven reviews that a recent movie received on rottentomatoes, I believe it was Amityville Horror, were positive. Look how that turned out.

how can anyone put stock in four opinions? u have to be kidding. unless u really hate orlando bloom and have an axe to grind. at least wait for some major reviewers first.

Great sample size for a defense of an arguement Chester. Why make it four? Stop at one.

Gee, Mark, then I guess we should ask Dave Poland to just delete this page. After all, if you don't think we can make predictions based on the scarce evidence that is available, and if the opinions of the few people who've actually seen the movie count for so little, then I assume you mean we shouldn't be making predictions at all - which is what this entire thread is about.

dave probably should delete this with all ur dumb comments on here chester. great point saying a sample size of four is a legit sample. ur really on the ball guy

Come on bi-bob. Why must you always resort to this childish garbage? You claim Chester's comments are dumb. Go back and read every post you have around here. Then tell me who's comments are dumb. Seriously.

Stella's Boy, we all know you love to get your hits in at Bike Bob. Its funny when you two go back and forth. But how can you bash him on this point? Even you can say he has a point. Its not hard to agree with people sometimes even if you enjoy arguing. Especially when they are right.

Terence, you're actually defending bob? Did you read his post? Was it truly necessary? Even if he does have a point, was that the best way to make it?

Now its about how you present a point, Stella? His point is exactly what everyone else has stated and what you said to. Four reviews does not constitute large enough sample size and proves nothing especially when the movie hasn't even opened yet. Unless you think it does. Do you?

Uh, did you guys read my earlier comment about "just trying to read the tea leaves"? Or the one about how this entire thread is devoted to predictions based on scarce evidence? I think it's fair to conclude that Stella's Boy did and, while he still doesn't necessarily want to arrive at any premature conclusions, he comprehends the purely conversational nature of my comments. As usual, the three Republican rottweilers do not.

Well, "Kingdom of Heaven" now has 19 reviews listed on Rotten Tomatoes and it's still at only 53%. (SPLAT!) At the same time, even the unsplattered reviews for the most part seem to be unmistakably critical of the film. For example, Entertainment Weekly's review is listed on Rotten Tomatoes as ripe, but if you read it you'll see EW gave the movie a grade of "B-". That kind of mediocre grade looks to be the growing general consensus. (Exactly as I predicted earlier. Hmmm...)

Assuming that trend continues, it's now just a matter of whether the movie is reviewproof. But IMHO anyone who still thinks this troubled film is going to crack $200 million domestically is out of his/her mind.

who said it was going to make $200mil?

That sounds a bit over estimated.

I know I read a $200 million prediction somewhere. It may have been here, but I've got better things to do than review every posting for the past few weeks. But I definitely saw it in print here or elsewhere.

its ok chester. u have an axe to grind with orlando bloom. maybe u have dreams about him and hate yourself for it. who knows. but when u make a point please try to back it up instead of using obscure facts to cloud it.

"Kingdom of Heaven" now has 33 reviews and is at 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. Per sexually disoriented bi-bob, I guess that means 58% of the critics so far have some Freudian axe to grind...

Interestingly, the film has been holding steady at about 70% with RT's "Cream of the Crop" critics. Interpret that as you will. But if that trend holds up, it may bolster the film's openings in the larger markets.

Still, I'm beginning to think there's a small chance that "House of Wax" will outperform KOH this weekend. (Before the attacks begin, read what I said: "SMALL chance.")

Looks like you were right Chester. I definitely thought it would do better than that with critics. I'm still really looking forward to seeing it. I agree that it's a small chance, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if HOW pulled an upset this weekend. Horror is so hot right now.

That's right, SB. Horror is hot, Elisha Cuthbert is hot, and Paris Hilton has heat (I can't bring myself to say she's hot).

If you waited til the 100 got in and said your peace instead of running your mouth off after 4 reviews, most of us would take you more seriously.

45 RT reviews and "Kingdom of Heaven" remains at 42% ripe. The news is that most of the big guns have weighed in (e.g., NY Times, Roger Ebert, LA Times) and the "Cream of the Crop" rating is down to 56%.

I am Chester and I feed the kitty!

Yeah, Mark, the way everyone around here takes you seriously, because you're so rational and civil. Good one buddy. You're a funny guy. Anyway, right now KOH is at 38% overall and 58% cream of the crop. I never expected that. Has to be even worse than Troy right? Only 10% separates it from House of Wax. Not too good.

hey mark watch out. stellas girl has her claws out for u. shes coming for ya! its funny how stella just joins whatever side is hot at the moment. ur opinion changes everyday. what do u expect from a blue blood lib anyway?

I'll see Kingdom of Heaven. Regardless of what critics say. I don't know many people who actually listen to critics anyway. Especially on week one.

Stella, have you ever posted something that doesn't try to cut someone down or bash someone? Every post references either me or Bobby or Chester or anyone else that doesn't agree with your lefty sensibilities. Do you even watch movies?

Um, Chester and I have had many good discussions around here. I don't think you speak for Chester. Considering all you do around here is call people names and throw around insults, I could not possibly care less what you think about me Mark. Seriously, what do you contribute around here Mark? Don't turn it around on me. Just answer the question. I'd like to know.

Stella's Boy and I have conversed, debated, and certainly taken a few nasty swings at each other in this public arena. But I totally respect the guy and am always glad to see his postings.

Thank you Chester. Feeling is mutual.

Not quite on this subject, but wanted to discuss it: regarding the story from Variety on Movie City News about "the first openly gay director to make superhero films"...
1. Is Bryan Singer out?
2. Is Joel Schumacher closeted?
3. This is happening after Superman, right? Seems like an odd career move.

I see that Dave (or whoever) has fixed the front page...
I still didn't think that Singer was out. He spoke at my college a few years back and had some female eye candy on his arm at that time.

I don't know about the female eye candy you saw him with, but I believe Singer has always been out. He's even been scandalized and harassed because of it. Among the out events in his professional background, many of you may recall that several years ago he was named in a gay youth pornography scandal relating to the filming of "Apt Pupil." He vigorously denied the charges, which I believe were later completely discredited, but I recall he was also very open and candid throughout the scandal about being gay.

Friday's Estimates:

KINGDOM OF HEAVEN - $7.3 million
HOUSE OF WAX - $5 million
CRASH - $2.9 million
HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE TO THE GALAXY - $2.9 million
INTERPRETER - $2.3 million
XXX: STATE OF THE UNION - $1.8 million
AMITYVILLE HORROR - $1.1 million
LOT LIKE LOVE - $1 million
SAHARA - $900,000
FEVER PITCH - $900,000

Brian Singer is very out. He is also very proud.

just saying hi

Just spreading the word, thanks and hang in there.

http://whores2christians.blog-city.com/

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