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Here's an interesting question--what's the bigger bomb? Stealth or The Island? While The Island is likely going to lose more money based on domestic release, I think expectations-wise, Stealth was expected to do big business given the simple, gimmicky premise, and the fact that Cohen's been able to spin shit into box office gold of late.

Island cost more - bigger bomb. I think Stealth was always a little iffy, Island was supposed to be a tentpole, didn't happen. And Cohen's had his own trainwrecks like Daylight, Dragonheart, etc. in the past, unlike Bay.

I think there's a difference between the reasons WHY they bombed though. The Island simply wasn't sold properly. The central concept of originals in conflict with their escaped clones was financially viable, but it was sold without relaying that concept and focused on the most generic and uninteresting elements (escape from clone prison).

Stealth was sold as is, marketing got everything across, military AI plane goes bad. People just had no interest in it. I don't think even robot-warrior Will Smith could have saved what was an extremely simple and dull looking plotline.

The question is... which will return more money overseas and in DVD. Domestic box office is only a part of the equation.

I went to the Friday 6:40 performance of "Dukes of Hazzard" and it was quickly sold out. Although the movie skews very dumb and is sloppily made, the audience ate up every bit of it. This was in Virginia Beach and the audience was 18-35 and mostly male. It was the usual shallow dumb summer popcorn movie, but I was surprised by how much I laughed. Bad movie but a good time.

I think the Island will because at the end of the day, unlike Stealth the movie is not a bad movie and worth seeing in some form.

I think it's debatable, Island would seem to be the logical BO winner after all's in, but Stealth is just the sort of genre trash that tends to pick up on DVD, and internationally since it barely needs subtitles.

BTW Is anyone else starting to have a bad feeling about 40YV? After DOH this week and Deuce two next weekend people might be burn out.

pretty sure stealth was more costly than the island but i could be wrong...seem to hear numbers like $125 mill for Island and $150 mill (and up) for Stealth...either way, they are both total disasters. both, however, i would bet, will make some coin overseas and certinly on dvd...i am just in shock over how poorly Dworks marketed The island, considering it was a lot of fun...can't speak for Stealth because I havent seen it yet...it just looked too moronic to be taken seriously. i am kind of shocked at how well Dukes did considering the reviews and lack of real star power but it just goes to show that having a built-in audience is almost critical for most big summer movies nowadays. unless the subject matter is instantly marketable (come see new lovers Pitt/Jolie in Smith, SW Ep3, aliens/cruise/speilberg, craptastic 4, "hide your bridesmaids") people seem to ignore most others. what happened to the action crowds though...the failure of some of this summers movies (Kingdom of Heaven, Stealth, Sahara, The Island,) is sort of head-scatching in a way and must concern the studios...william goldman never said it better: "nobody knows anything"

With the exception of DRAGON, every theatrical feature Cohen has directed has been a huge trainwreck. Some of them have just made money but they've all been godawful.

Was RAT PACK on HBO any better?

If the theory that popular movies generate more box office for the films that follow, I think the next few weeks (and DB2 and40YV) should perform very well. Instead of the big budget films generating the anticipated box office in June, it is these smaller, comedies that are filling the bill. Admit it, movie going is adictive and if there are similar movies being released that will sooth the jones, people will go.

I think people will make a choice though, and the audience will be segmented. $100 mill. for Dukes, $60 mill. for Bigalow and $50 mill. for 50YV seems about right, and profitwise I'm sure those numbers will be fine. Comedies seem to be the toast of the season, which means 2 summers from now there will be a shitload more, made for alot more money, and there will be a few major bombs.

Tracking on 40YOV has stalled... but it will easily have the best word of mouth of this month's comedies... it will be interesting...

David - If you don't mind sharing - How exactly is box office "tracking" done?

Tracking is a survey of about 400 people who are - in theory, at least - statistically sound, made by phone each week.

They survey for awareness and then for the degree of "want to see" on all the titles currently being tracked.

Generally, it is bad at teens, children and ethnic America.

They also do title testing by phone, though usually it is done seperately from the tracking surveys. So when you see a terrible movie name, it is often because it "tested better" than 4 or 5 other titles.

Saw Dukes last night at the Graumans in Hollywood and the ten o'clock show was about three quarters full, prtty good since I believe the theater seats 1162. Everyone seemed to really enjoy it. I found it to be exactly what I wanted a car chase movie with little or no plot. So I liked it.

Ugh for Dukes. Sky High was so much better and a lot more thought went into making it a fun family film than expected.

Jerri: I'm glad to see "Sky High" holding well. May be the pleasantest surprise of the summer. Just like "Four Brothers" is the best Saturday night movie I've seen in a while.

This Summer has been the most retarded, in the true definition of the word, Summer to my recollection. It's, as if, it fizzled out right when Charlie and the Chocolate Factory hit theatres. Look at the numbers, for every other film, since that weekend of release. They are far from interstellar for August. Which leaves me worried about the 40 Year-Old Virgin for one simple reason: the ads do not seem to be working this Summer. Will the people actually want to venture to the theatre to see this film? Especially, for that demo, of people that saw the Wedding Crashers, and have had their comedy fill for a while. Will they want to venture back? A lot of speculation, but this Summer has led to just that.

Leading me with two last thoughts: 1) If Deuce makes anyhwere near 16 million dollars next weekend. I will be shocked. 2) I never thought I would type this, but can Fall hurry up and get here? I have not longer for a Fall movie season since 2000. This Summer has been so utterly dreadful. It has driven me to Fall movies.

I guess...I am waiting for them...to try and take the sky away from me. You cant stop the signal.

with regard to the island, awareness here in england seems to be running pretty high. you cant walk a block or take the tube without seeing an ad for it (it will be released next weekend). i saw wedding crashers last weekend and the trailer for it was pretty well received. i was able to hear people talking about it once it was over and it seemed like they were excited. i saw a trailer while i was in the states and it just did not seem to be that interesting, but the one here in england has been reworked to highlight what the story is actually about (there is a double mirror in the monument tube station, i think, which says something to the effect of 'meet your clone' and the release dates) and the supporting cast as well as scarlett and ewan. the fact that the movie is about clones is actually a selling point in both the print and tele ads ive seen. of course theres no telling how well it wll do once released, but i think it wont do as badly as in the states.

I dunno if the movie is any good, but I'm already amused by the fact that the director of Deuce 2 is "Mike Bigelow". Is this Mike Mitchell under a pseudonym? According to IMDB, this is "Mike Bigelow"'s first film.

Stealth cost approx. $130 mil, Island $122. Domestically AND internationally I expect Island to win out. Think of American sensibilities: We don't want a stupid machine-with-a-brain filling our time, especially an airplane. War Games, yes. 2001, yes. But a stealth jet? Nuh-uh.

Think of European and miscellaneous foreign sensibilities in calculating international tallies: Who wants a Pinocchio plane giving them CGI and bad Biel acting? Who, if given the choice, would not prefer a movie about clones breaking free to search for their originals? Both constitute additions to the "creature-with-a-brain-that's-not-supposed-to-have-one" genre, but a story involving clones affords us the opportunity to wonder about OUR clones and what we would do if ever met with one of them (save for SW:AOTC; that just made me lose faith in Lucas).

When it comes to enlightened international mindsets this one is almost a no-brainer (pardon the pun).

>>> I found it to be exactly what I wanted a car chase movie with little or no plot.

And thus they will just keep turning out the dreck.

We get the movies we deserve.

You don't have to say it if you don't want to. If you have a problem with quality then pay the money and support the quality flicks. The more money dreck makes, the more the studios will make them.

I think it's interesting that this movie had no competition in terms of new releases and it only did $30 mill. I thought it could have done American Pie 2 numbers. But all the movie's credited sucess will go to Ms. Simpson. The Wedding Crashers has had some serious legs b.o. wise. It might out gross Charlie

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