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September 04, 2005
Early Box Office Analysis
Not a lot of time between movies, but here are a few random thoughts....
The good news this weekend is that The Constant Gardener is about 64% ahead of last year's Focus release on the same date, Vanity Fair.
The bad news is that the number still tops this absolutely brilliant film out at around $27 million. Let's hope not.
The Transporter 2 opened nicely, almost doubling the original's $3 million opening Friday. For a film that is mostly a passing interest with big interest in the rest of the world, a $50 million gross here is a happy, happy result for Fox.
Four Brothers keeps coming and will pass $60 million today and March of the Penguins should hit that milestone by the ned of the weekend as well.
Red Eye will pass $40 million, though it will be the first time it passes Skeleton Key's very quiet $40m.
And the Virgin better keep banging if he wants to get to $100 million. Another nice drop this weekend, but bigger competition is just around the corner.
Posted by poland at September 4, 2005 03:28 AM
Comments
I hope the Constant Gardener can get to at least 40$. Would make it a little more impressive for the award voters. And its that good a film.
Posted by: joefitz84
at September 4, 2005 03:40 AM
They're making a sequel to the 40 Year Virgin. Called the 41 Year Old Whore.
Posted by: Sanchez
at September 4, 2005 04:07 AM
I knew it would happen...The Constant Gardener was the best movie of the year and nobody is going to see it...fucking crime. it was so damn well done and thoroughly engrossing and smart and OF COURSE, nobody bothers to see it...but I knew that would be the case.
I went to see The Transporter 2 and for what it was, it delivers. High art it aint...but it kick some low-budget ass pretty often and the fight scenes are superbly choreographed (the bit with the fire hose was nifty) and there is some great action cinematography with a nice Ferrari car chase and other assorted mayhem...it was Michael Bay-lite and for those of us who enjoy a brainless action flick, it will get the job done. Louis Letterrier (the director) has done some good, stylish work with this, transporter 1, and the underrated Unleashed, which was hard-core to the max. Luc Besson is really churning 'em out.
Posted by: cullen
at September 4, 2005 05:51 AM
Can it be that "Sound of Thunder" really won't even finish in the Top Ten? Is this the poorest opening weekend for a major studio wide release this year?
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at September 4, 2005 06:07 AM
To not make the Top Ten would be beyond a bomb. That movie is going to lose a ton of money. It had a budget of 80$ million. Not making the Top Ten it is looking at a total gross of about 10$ million.
Posted by: Mark Ziegler
at September 4, 2005 06:10 AM
Cullen, settle down. OF COURSE it isn't grossing upwards of $10mil because it's not that well known, doesn't have big stars and wasn't on that many screens. OF COURSE it isn't grossing so much because it's target audience (adults) might actually have other stuff on their mind.
There are tonnes of great movies that don't catch on, and I don't think The Constant Gardener will be one. It's word of mouth will probably be really good, unlike Focus' Vanity Fair that David mentioned.
Sound of Thunder will turn into a bigger flop than The Island. This one will go direct-to-video everywhere I reckon.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 4, 2005 06:45 AM
The Transporter is turning into a legit franchise for Jason Statham. Who would have thought?
Posted by: PandaBear
at September 4, 2005 06:52 AM
Maybe The Constant Gardener will have some legs and surprise everyone. I hope so.
Posted by: Angelus21
at September 4, 2005 07:44 AM
I think it will. It should get to at least $30mil.
I should clarify: When I said A Sound of Thunder will be a bigger flop than The Island, I meant to also say that neither will be worse than Stealth.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 4, 2005 08:03 AM
People need to calm down. The Constant Gardner will do surprisingly well. It'll definitely do better than Quiz Show and The Insider. Now, if we can get people to take a chance on Clooney's b&w stunner.
Posted by: HenryHill
at September 4, 2005 08:35 AM
It's 64% ahead of Vanity Fair now, but let's remember that film got pretty mixed reception, while Constant is very well-liked. I'd say it will probably go around 35m without much trouble, which is enough for it to be a player in awards time (specially with the later Focus titles don't deliver).
A Sound of Thunder is in only 800 screens. It was not expected to be in the Top 10, Warner is only dumpuing it so wen the DVD release happens people can't call it a straight to video title.
Posted by: Filipe
at September 4, 2005 08:48 AM
Looking ahead, I went to a sneak preview tonight of "An Unfinished Life." ("The Constant Gardener" was sold out.) I'm not a Lasse Hallstrom fan and I walked in expecting very little, but I must admit that I was most pleasantly surprised (yet not entirely blown away). The direction and all of the performances are extremely good (including a solid one by Jennifer Lopez), and I think it may be Robert Redford's best acting work since the 1970s. It has some beautifully scenic cinematography, and the familial story works despite some familiar, cloying aspects. Overall, it's a small, precious little thing that's probably not exactly going to rock anybody's world, but it ain't half bad at that.
Posted by: Chester
at September 4, 2005 08:59 AM
Chester says something reasonable? Go figure.
Posted by: HenryHill
at September 4, 2005 09:28 AM
Virgin has the comedy field to themselves and should not have much competition for screens until the 23rd when Corpse Bride and Flight Plan take the field. Just Like Heaven will make a dent by taking theaters but should not have impact against their audience.
Posted by: RogerThat
at September 4, 2005 10:04 AM
i know the reasons why the constant gardener is going to have a tougher time than most at the BO...doesn't mean I have to like it.
brilliant filmmaking deserves to find an audience in a movie theater...but sadly it doesn't work out that way.
I'm glad for Jason Statham...he's totally cool and obvioulsy has a blast with this role in the transporter flicks.
Posted by: cullen
at September 4, 2005 12:46 PM
Constant Gardener will end up with close to $12 million in its first six days...which is about $5 million more than City of God made in 16 months of play in theatres. I think that's damn good, and I expect it to expand in the next week or so to get that total closer to $30 million...and of course, Focus will be wise to rerelease closer to the holidays to try to get some Oscar nominations and business from those who may have missed it the first time. Hopefully, they'll do that rather than try to rush-release the DVD.
Posted by: EDouglas
at September 4, 2005 01:05 PM
And Sound of Thunder was a bomb even before the weekend began. There was just no way it could make the Top 10 opening in only 816 theatres and it had no advertising (not even online ads which are relatively cheap!)...I'm kind of surprised that it's going to average more this weekend then Undiscovered, to be honest, because awareness of the film seemed to be sh*t..maybe the Ray Bradbury fans got out to see it opening day...but it will be making only a million opening weekend and probably less than $3 million total in theatres. Now *that* is a bomb.
Posted by: EDouglas
at September 4, 2005 01:07 PM
I highly doubt Constant Gardener would even make it to DVD before Christmas. It'll play in cinemas for at least a couple of months and if Focus took any clue from Miramax (with City of God) they will keep it playing for as long as possible.
Cullen, I think you need to realise that movies like The Constant Gardener will NEVER be the ones to make hundreds of millions of dollars and win 10 Oscars and take over the world. It's not worth getting upset about. Now a movie like Eternal Sunshine could really have done better (with it's pedigree, story etc) but it didn't. But as a fan of the film you should be extremely happy that it made what it did which will almost definitely inspire Focus to keep with it.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 4, 2005 02:28 PM
Sound of Thunder should really have went direct to dvd. This can't be good for the movie.
Posted by: joefitz84
at September 4, 2005 02:59 PM
Huge thing you're forgetting.
City of God's budget. 3 million.
Sound of Thunder's budget. 80 million.
If that isn't a big difference I don't know what is.
Posted by: Sanchez
at September 4, 2005 03:06 PM
Never compare City of God to Sound of Thunder.
Posted by: Bruce
at September 4, 2005 03:27 PM
"A Sound of Thunder" is from the now-bankrupt Franchise Pictures; WB is releasing it (semi-wide) to satisfy a distribution deal.
Also, did anyone notice Miramax screwing up again? "An Unfinished Life" has a sneak preview in 741 theaters but will open next week in only 400.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at September 4, 2005 07:09 PM
Does Transporter 2 really have a shot at making $50 million? I seriously doubt it. It may open at $15 million, but I imagine large drops in the weeks ahead and a final tally of $40 million.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at September 4, 2005 07:15 PM
I enjoyed "An Unfinished Life," even though I, too, went in with low expectations. Which only serves to raise the question: Why were those expectations low in the first place? I mean, what had I heard or read to make me aware of bad buzz? (The delayed release dates, etc.) And then it hit me: Well, I'd read blogs like this one, and postings by gossipy folks like -- well, me. Sometimes I wonder if we as moviegoers know too much about movies -- or, more likely, if we THINK we know too much --before we see them.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at September 4, 2005 07:37 PM
Maybe the director caused expectations to be low. And the involvement of J-Lo. When's the last time she was in a good movie? 1998?
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at September 4, 2005 07:44 PM
I'd have seen The Constant Gardner if it was showing at a theater nearby, but it isn't much to my disappointment. I don't want drive half and hour to see it (well, I would if gasoline wasn't $1.20 a litre).
I hope it expands into a few more theaters next weekend...
I finally saw The Longest Yard at the 2nd run theaters though, and I was very surprised how much I enjoyed it. Definitely on the DVD to buy list.
Posted by: sky_capitan
at September 4, 2005 11:04 PM
>>>Definitely on the DVD to buy list.
You're going to watch it twice????
Posted by: grandcosmo
at September 5, 2005 03:46 AM
Unfinished Life is like every Miramax movie this year. An utter disappointment.
Posted by: Josh
at September 5, 2005 04:01 AM
Franchise Pictures may be the worst production company. Ever.
Posted by: Angelus21
at September 5, 2005 04:30 AM
Sandlers Yard wasn't half as good as Reynolds' Yard. That is a classic. Beyond comparison.
Posted by: PandaBear
at September 5, 2005 05:14 AM
Elie Samaha is an ass-clown. Truly. Just look at his producing credits...they're amazing.
Posted by: cullen
at September 5, 2005 06:34 AM
J Lo (aka Jennifer Lopez) peaked with Out of Sight. She should have never have left the stable of Soderbergh.
Posted by: Sanchez
at September 5, 2005 06:47 AM
oh my freakin god. We are NOT having the Jennifer Lopez conversation AGAIN are we? Didn't we have this just four months ago with Monster-in-Law.
For petes sake. Get over it. She makes movies. Some are good. Some are not. Learn to deal (it's really quite easy)
(Josh, why do you think Miramax didn't release them? They probably knew they were shit and wouldn't be worth the time releasing. Films like An Unfinished Life and Proof however I think they held onto a bit because they had 2 films for Oscar last year and while this year's 2 Miramax movies may not be the best and probably won't get much Oscar love if any it would've been a big juggle to manage four campaigns.)
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 5, 2005 08:21 AM
Some are good? Which ones? Seriously name two in the past ten years. Dare you.
Posted by: joefitz84
at September 5, 2005 06:05 PM
Out of Sight her best movie. But thats easy. Anyone who works with Steven Sodebergh does their best work. I don't like her romantic comedies.
Posted by: Terence D
at September 5, 2005 06:37 PM
Why did they release The Constant Gardener now? Why not wait til October or even later? Get better Oscar coverage and less competition. Seems strange to me.
Posted by: Bruce
at September 5, 2005 07:02 PM
october they would've hit much more competition, esp awards compeition. i think they timed it just right, $13 mill. 4 day is a success for that film, let's be honest. it got people in theaters, now the question is whether word of mouth will get it to a good number.
Posted by: martin
at September 5, 2005 10:49 PM
If they can get Constant Gardener growing with word of mouth and push the number to 40million then it can gather some awards momentum. Going to be hard to do. But it can be done. They could use some more theatres though.
Posted by: Angelus21
at September 6, 2005 12:57 AM
A movie like this, no matter how great it is, can't do boffo box office. The subject matter isn't box office. They'll be over joyed with 30$ mill.
Posted by: Sanchez
at September 6, 2005 02:20 AM
how is red eye behind skeleton key? is kate hudson that much bigger of a star than rachel mcadams to pull a terrible movie up like that?
Posted by: bicycle bob
at September 6, 2005 02:30 PM
Maybe more people want to see Louisiana voodoo than a thriller about an assassin on an airplane.
However great Red Eye may be. It'll eventually beat Skeleton Key though.
And Joe, I'm not even going to attempt to discuss Jennifer Lopez with you - especially considering I already have only four months ago. Crikies.
I think Constant Gardener was released just at the right time. Before the bigger Oscar releases are out but at a time when that audience is getting restless for something good. Broken Flowers never really got traction and Crash was four months back.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 6, 2005 02:56 PM
It remains to be seen if releaseing Constant Gardener now was the right move. You will see when the nominations are announced.
J Lo needs a better film and theatrical agent because her roles have been terrible recently. She was going well when she was choosing projects based on characters and directors.
Posted by: Bruce
at September 6, 2005 02:59 PM
Jennifer Lopez. She'd be an interesting study if we were going over the overhyped and tabloid fodder types. She is just not much of an actress. Maybe she could have been and could still be but she's not at the moment.
Posted by: Josh
at September 6, 2005 03:31 PM
She was too good too early. A lot of early promise when she didn't have to carry movies or be the #1 star. Then she tried to be a star. You can't force it especially in the movies.
Posted by: PandaBear
at September 6, 2005 05:18 PM
J Lo may not pick the best scripts but she'll always be a star. She just has that "it" thing going for her.
Posted by: BluStealer
at September 6, 2005 06:19 PM
A movie like Constant Gardener will make its money but it will never breakout. No stars. The subject matter is not breakout worthy. Needs to hope for an Oscar push to give it that boost.
Maybe it needed J Lo.
Posted by: Terence D
at September 6, 2005 08:08 PM
Jennifer Lopez's best work recently was on South Park. Acting against Cartmans hand was extraordinary.
Posted by: Mark Ziegler
at September 6, 2005 10:17 PM
Ralph Fiennes definitely puts my butt in a seat. He's just such a frickin' great actor. He may not be a star to the general but he's a star to me. I'm pretty fond of Rachel Weisz too.
Posted by: Krazy Eyes
at September 6, 2005 11:40 PM
I must say I've only seen Rachel Weisz in The Mummy movies and that horrible Heavenly Creatures movie or whatever it was called. Not the best...
And while J.Lo's movies may be bad (well, Monster-in-Law wasn't AS bad as some were saying and An Unfinished Life seems like at least a good decision for actings sake) for as long as she is in the spotlight she will keep making them. She has even commented herself on the fact that she used to get offered much better scripts with better directors before she was "Jennifer Lopez. Star."
It's hard to not agree with her. Anyone who has seen Selena, Out of Sight and U-Turn would no doubt agree.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 7, 2005 10:59 AM
one thing ralph fiennes doesn't do is put asses in the seats. hes not a box office draw. unfortunately.
Posted by: bicycle bob
at September 7, 2005 02:19 PM
Selena might not be the best way to defend J Lo's acting talent.
Posted by: Josh
at September 7, 2005 04:00 PM
Oh well, that's your deal. I'm over this.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 8, 2005 09:44 AM
over what? i didn't realize the debate over j lo's acting is so fierce.
Posted by: bicycle bob
at September 8, 2005 02:18 PM
Can't defend J Lo's acting talent? That's too tough for you? I would agree after watching the Wedding Planner. I'm with you. Done with it.
Posted by: Josh
at September 8, 2005 04:23 PM
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