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September 18, 2005
Early (& Minor) Box Office Analysis
The opening day for Just Like Heaven is about two and a half times smaller that the opening day for her September smash hit, Sweet Home Alabama, three years ago. The film will be #1 for the weekend, but it’s not a thrill for DreamWorks, especially in light of The Exorcism of Emily Rose last weekend, which will draw comparisons… even though it is utterly irrelevant.
Emily Rose has a brilliant ad campaign that spoke, like White Noise - which opened to $24 million in January and has since been forgotten as journalists lick “The Slump” like the best lollypop ever – hit on the idea that this horror movie is based on reality and equally importantly and completely forgotten by a media now distracted by Christian-relevance silliness, is that the film was sold like an R and was rated PG-13.
Lord of War’s $3.2 million is both a pleasant surprise (for a film with no public profile) and a major disappointment (for a Nic Cage film). A similar thing can be said of Cry Wolf, which had no profile, but a campaign that I found fascinating. Of course, I also never saw the film. One has to wonder just how much Emily Rose haunted this film.
The 40 Year Old Virgin should hit $90 million this weekend.
Early Friday Numbers
1. Just Like Heaven - $5.6m
2. Exorcism Of Emily Rose - $4.9m
3. Lord Of War - $3.2m
4. 40 Year Old Virgin - $1.9m
5. Cry Wolf - $1.6m
6. Transporter 2 - $1.2m
7. Constant Gardener - $1.2m
8. Red Eye - $.9m
Posted by poland at September 18, 2005 07:39 AM
Comments
I'm a bit surprised at Heaven's smaller take, but this is just blah fodder until Reese gets to strut her stuff in Walk The Line, which I'm pumped about.
An Unfinished Life could end up in the Top 10. Interesting (but it will go nowhere).
And, yes, The Man is nowhere to be seen. Hurray!
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 18, 2005 09:34 AM
What made anyone think that a high concept comedy like "Just Like Heaven" (oh that title!) would do any real business? There was nothing good in the trailer and the way they sold Jon Heder was just plain cynical. Another "Bewitched."
Posted by: Crow T Robot
at September 18, 2005 10:08 AM
What's going to be interesting is the limited numbers. There are four major limiteds this weekend--Illuminated, Proof, Corpse Bride, and Thumbsucker. I think Corpse Bride is almost certain to do a 10K plus PSA, with Illuminated having the power to put up good numbers as well. Proof is supposed to expand next week, though if it utterly craters that may wind up going nowhere.
Posted by: MattM
at September 18, 2005 02:04 PM
Actually, Corpse Bride is looking to average about $75k per theatre this weekend and it will end up making almost twice what Big Fish did in 6 theatres when it opened back in '03. It might be making a play for Exorcism type numbers when it goes wide next week, too.
Posted by: EDouglas
at September 18, 2005 04:04 PM
"Proof" may work in NYC/LA ($201K opening from 8 theaters) but will get killed nationwide due to product flow. A lot of studios are pumping out arty stuff now to send a message to the Weinstein brothers before they leave Miramax on 9/30.
"An Unfinished Life" missed the national top 10. Where I live "The Thing About My Folks" played in many of the same theaters, thus the Peter Falk movie took a hurtin' to the latest Miramax J.Lo epic.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at September 18, 2005 06:28 PM
I know no one is interested but here you go.
Toronto Wrap-Up.
Overall Festival Rating (B-) since 1992
Ratings (A+) :: (F)
Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (B)
Les Saignantes (F)
Working Mans Death (B-)
Life and Hard Times of Guy Terrifico (C)
Shadowboxer (D)
Piano Tuner of Earthquakes (C+)
Evil Aliens (C)
Worlds Fastest Indian (C+)
Winter Passing (B)
Capote (A)
Elizabethtown (D)
History of Violence (B+)
Lucid (C+)
Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada - new cut (B)
Neverwas (C-)
Mary (D)
Revolver (F)
C.R.A.Z.Y (A)
The Quiet (B+)
Heart of the Game (C+)
Brothers of the Head (B)
Duelist (C+)
The Proposition (C-)
North Country (B-)
The Notorious Betty Page (B)
Diameter of the Bomb (B)
Harsh Times (A+)
American Gun (C+)
Twelve and Holding (A-)
Sympathy for Lady Vengeance (B)
Beowulf and Grendel (C+)
The GRonholm Method (B)
Metal: A Headbangers Journey (C)
River Queen (C-)
Runaway (C+)
Lie With Me (B+)
The Great Yokai War (B-)
Walk the Line (A-)
SLP (B-)
Brokeback Mountain (C+)
Thank you for not Smoking (B)
Totsi (A-)
Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor
at September 18, 2005 07:11 PM
Only a D for Elizabethtown? Please elaborate as i love all Crowe films with the exception of Vanilla Sky
Posted by: Dr Wally
at September 18, 2005 07:27 PM
Just check out his review of Elizabethtown. Explains it all.
Posted by: PandaBear
at September 18, 2005 07:49 PM
Maybe Just Like Heaven will have some legs and get going. It is getting great reviews and the word of mouth has been good.
Posted by: Angelus21
at September 18, 2005 08:21 PM
Great reviews for Just Like Heaven? You sure? RT rating is only 51%. Not exactly great.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at September 18, 2005 08:31 PM
Heaven has gotten mixed reviews at best. I'm not sure what's up on the calendar for the next few weeks, it may have decent legs. But $16 mill. for this film is a disappointment, no matter what anyone at dreamworks says. It's not Island-bad, but JLH finishing up with $45 mill. domestic is $$ down the drain.
The Lord of War #'s are also a little disappointing, but apparently it didn't get much in the way of advertising. A late october launch for LoW and Cry Wolf may have led to better numbers, but they probably didn't want it to compete with Weather Man, which probably will do good $$.
Posted by: martin
at September 18, 2005 08:45 PM
According to boxofficemojo, Just Like Heaven cost $58 million. I'd say its opening is definitely a disappointment.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at September 18, 2005 08:48 PM
I read a bunch of papers last week and they all gave it 3 plus stars. Obviously I didn't take a poll of a every reviewer.
The word of mouth I've been hearing has been great too. I expected more of a splash opening up here but it can still get to 60-70.
Posted by: Angelus21
at September 18, 2005 09:30 PM
Actually, I think Proof could hold well, handled well. Substantial star names, good reviews, and a play that's becoming a favorite in local reperatory because of a small cast. It's unquestionably a better and better-reviewed movie than Unfinished Life, and straight drama is not exactly hugely crowded right now.
Posted by: MattM
at September 18, 2005 10:57 PM
"Just check out his review of Elizabethtown. Explains it all."
Who's review of Elizabethtown? Jeffery Boams doctor?
Posted by: knowitall
at September 18, 2005 11:59 PM
aah, I need The Notorious Bettie Page now! I love me some Mary Harron.
And I don't think anybody expects Proof to play well outside of the major markets.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 19, 2005 09:46 AM
Oh, and yeah, Corpse Bride made more than $10K/screen on Friday alone. It's going to do quite well I think.
The Nightmare Before Christmas is SUCH a huge cult movie that has gotten a lot of fans over the years. I know I've introduced it to a whole bunch who are excited about Corpse Bride.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at September 19, 2005 09:47 AM
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