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Toronto seems to have a nice selection of films going right now.

Looking forward to David Ayers Harsh Times. I like Bale and I like Ayers writing.

This week autumn came to LA... everything is 60 degrees again. Even the 101! The agents are chirping... the long unemployment lines (read: Pinks on La Brea) have made way for pilot season... Britney Spears is in blossom...

I love this town.

No one has ever fallen faster or harder than Miss Spears. It is a tragedy to watch it happen.

From the hottest thing on the planet to a white trash wife with no career prospects save Playboy.

That isn't a tragedy. It's a fun trainwreck to watch. I think of that Jack Johnson song "Gone" with lyrics like "look at you, out to make a deal, You try to be appealing, but you lose your appeal."
She wasn't that good of a lip-syncher either.

betting on this weekend's box office
Just Like Heaven, 10million max.

You're underestimating the appeal of Reese W.

I say 20 mill.

i can see Reese pulling in $20-25 million.

anyone else pumped for LORD OF WAR? the marketing has been kick ass and the people who like it REALLY like it. Cage looks great. And Andrew Niccol can be pretty stylish.

If Emily Rose can do 30M, Just Like Heaven should do at least that--Sweet Home Alabama, with a less effective campaign and pre-superstar Reese, did 35M.

Corpse Bride and Everything is Illuminated will both do HUGE PSAs this weekend, and Corpse Bride will hold up very nicely the following weekend (Illuminated will crater), with Thumbsucker having the potential to do big.

Proof is a wildcard. Best new play I've seen in years, but Gwyneth's star is tarnished and faded, and the general view seems to be that it was more effective on the stage.

It's actually a crowded weekend in terms of interesting fare, with two teen horror flicks, three "arty" flicks to go after that audience, and Reese. I expect Lord of War to get lost unless reviews are ECSTATIC.

Don't worry about Proof. It is going to get blown out early.

Reese will do 25 plus.

Lord of War will do 15-20. I will see it.

R.I.P. Robert Wise.

Yet one more of the truly great ones is gone.

Gotta quote Dr. Mark Hall from Andromeda Strain: "Most of them died instantly. A few had time to go quietly nuts."

Shit!

AICN used words "truly great" too. Well, Wise was.

Sorry anyway.

Two things: Wise was a very good director who will be missed.
Toshi McWeeney is an incredibly dumb name for a kid.

did u expect mcweeny to not pick a name that gets his nerd son picked on for 15 years? i feel bad for the kid.

I've never really liked David Ayer. His work comes off like he's James Ellroy's little brother. Much as I like Training Day, it's pretty mediocre, along with most of Ayer's works...

I'll take anything that even resembles James Ellroy. One of my favorite writers out there.

Lord of War is in a tough spot. Needs a big first weekend to get it started. I think theres a really chance for a surprise on it.

True about Ellroy, but I'd rather see something by him than a clone. I can't comment on Dark Blue and U-571 since I haven't seen them, but S.W.A.T., The Fast and the Furious, Taking Lives and the aforementioned Training Day are terrible and disappointing. I hope Harsh Times is different...

And McWeeny should've named his son Maugham.

Training Day was really good. My boy Denzel brought the fire. Even Ethan Hawke stepped up to the plate.

McWeeny has now doomed that poor kid to a life of bullying and saddness.

The kid's doomed anyway because of his last name. "Toshiro" ain't what he's gonna get picked on for.

It's funny how "McWeeney" is so close to "McQueen". One represents the essence of cool, and the other one...doesn't.

To be fair, I know Moriarty has talked about how he always had contemplated changing his name, but has too much respect for his father, who I think was a Vietnam Vet, to do so.

As for Lord of War, I'm marginally interested because of Andrew Niccol (who I was hoping was working on something more OUT THERE), but there's no way this film is making money. What girl would even want to be treated to this film by her date? Despite Jared Leto and Ethan Hawke being in it. I still think the promotion started way too late for this to have captured the audience's interest already.

"Toshiro" huh? This name might not be as pretentious if the baby's mother is of Asian descent.

Speaking of, have you ever been to The Grove on the weekends? It's like nothing but white guys and Asian girls coupled up. They should pipe Nancy Sinatra songs instead of Muzak.

why doesn't he just change it to moriarty? 100 times better than mcweeny. this kid is gonna be on so many meds.

Hey, I like Training Day, but only for what it is. Denzel and Hawke made the film enjoyable and Fuqua is a bland Tony Scott clone.

Anyway, Michael Mann had an arms-dealer movie in the works. I'd much rather see his than Niccol's...

I'd see Michael Mann's anything over any other director out there. If he made a live action Rugrats I'd be there.

David, PLEASE stop comparing every movie you see to "Brokeback Mountain". You really have to get over it. Most people love it, you don't. What's the big deal?

Who's most people? I'm reading a lot of reviews like Dave's.

But I was going into Toshi Station to pick up some power converters!!

How about that Goblet of Fire trailer? I thought it was hot.

^ Warners always makes kick-ass trailers for their franchise pics.

Poor little McWeeny. Wow. That boy is done for.

The Goblet of Fire trailer? Kick ass.

Josh, how about Variety, the Hollywood Reporter, Roger Ebert, the Wall Street Journal, etc.? I could go on, but I don't want it to feel like a pile-on. Poland's totally entitled to his opinion and I'm sure he's just beginning to dig in his heels about it, but when he keeps bringing it up in every review, it's reminiscent of Jeff Wells (who, incidentally, liked the film as well) and the way he'll slam certain directors or films over and over and OVER. Enough already, you're a martyr, the last sane man in an insane world, we get it. Move on.

Anyone catch Poland on Air America (the Morning Sedition show I think, but not sure) earlier in the week? Nice snarky little update from the festival although it came dangerously close to being Jeff Wells bitchy at times.

Michael Mann is the shit and his arms dealer movie would have been brilliant more-than-likely.
Still, LORD OF WAR looks like it will be fun. The marketing is very very stylish...I love the title graphic with the blazing guns and bullet hits.
There's lots from Toronto that sounds excellent...Harsh Times sounds great and Thank You For Smoking sounds very interesting as well...not sure how I feel about seeing Brokeback but a movie like that in this day and age deserves to be seen by any serious film lover. At least it'll be different and challenging and (I'm assuming), smart and literate. I think it's gonna bomb at the US box office though.

I loved Thank You For Smoking. Sat right next to Maria Bello at the screening. Spent three wonderful days in Toronto at the fest and saw 10 movies.

1. It's an unusual name for a baby, but give the man a break... it's his child and he loves it and it's not really our issue to dissect.

2. Where are all these reviews refering to Brokeback Mountain? I did think of it when reviewing a movie about a gay man who was hiding his emotions from the world. Is that not relevant enough? And btw, I didn't pick the pull quote on the fest page.

3. My heels need no further digging. I want to see Brokeback again, but my position is hardly radical. It is very possible to disagree with me, but no one film review defines me or anyone else.

James Leer? Someone liked Wonder Boys that much???

Blows my mind.

And ever review I have read of Brokeback has said it isn't as good as it thinks. Where are the good reviews? I'd love to read them. Seriously.

Well Rex Reed loved BBM so I guess that means it can't be too gay. That guy just hates homosexuals!

http://www.observer.com/culture_rexreed.asp

Joe, there's aren't a lot of reviews at the moment because the film itself isn't actually released until December. Come then there will be a lot of these positive reviews, you'll see (yes, there will be negative ones too)

Who was it that thought Just Like Heaven would make $10mil total? I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it made that on Friday. But I'm guessing it'll make around a similar number to "Monster-in-Law" and "Lord Of War" will make a similar number to "Matchstick Men".

Audiences love commercial Nic Cage but when he steps out of there's only a certain amount who will follow.

I hope "Proof" does some decent business this weekend.

Robert Wise was a great man. "West Side Story" is out and out all-time classic. But one thing I didn't know about him was that he started as an editor for Orson Welles' "Citizen Kane" and "The Magnificent Ambersons".

It's sort of sad that Kane constantly gets names the greatest film ever made when the Ambersons is, for me, the undisputed classic of the two.

Speaking of Reese, I think she'll start getting a lot more respect and will find a much wider audience after Walk the Line. I haven't liked much that she's been in since Election, but I just thought she and Joaquin really made that a lovely film. But I say it now and I'll be saying it in a few months...Charlize is getting the Oscar again this year (and no, not for Aeon Flux! )

I'm surprised by some conservative predictions for Just Like Heaven! Even Box Office Guru was saying just 20 mill. I agree with MattM and Angelus -- 25-30, guys! Perfect release date, good marketing, high concept, low competition, one big star in her big-star genre, recognizable supporting players... less than $25 million would be a surprise for me, and I wouldn't be shocked by any number in the 30's.

EDouglas, I don't think Charlize is going to rack up another one so soon -- Hilary Swank had a six-year gap and appeared in a beloved movie with Best Picture support to get her two so close together. The Best Actress competition sounds stiffer than in years, so it's premature to count anyone in for a definite win, much less a repeat, for a movie that looks a little boilerplate. But tehn, I haven't seen the movie -- maybe you have.

I think it will be an easy 25 million for Just Like Heaven. I've been thinking about it. Wracking this old head and realizing there hasn't been a romantic comedy in like months. Girls are desperate. They're going to support in droves.

There was Must Love Dogs in late July, but that doesn't have much young-date appeal (and still made 40some million, with mostly bad reviews).

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN: The movie that gives new meaning to the word "cowpoke." Ba-DUM-bum!

I'm not literally counting Dave, but you brought up Brokeback Mountain when talking about Breakfast on Pluto, North Country, Imagine Me & You and Le Temps Qui Reste, if I recall correctly. And it's not a big deal, but you certainly have that movie stuck in your head. At least these days...

Joe and Josh, Brokeback Mountain has not gotten that many full reviews, but critics and journalists are writing reports about film festivals and most (but definitely not all) are saying great things about the movie (Roger Ebert, Jeff Wells, Manohla Dargis, Jack Matthews, Ray Bennett, Rex Reed, Todd McCarthy, to name a few). It even won at Venice. Now, I haven't seen the pic and maybe I'll hate it, but fact is the movie is getting a generally good response so far...

Just Like Heaven... I'll go out on a limb and say $30 mil... just on Friday!

"Respect the c0ck!" - Tom Cruise

My wife and daughters just went to see it. Just adding to why I don't get the female species. But then again I'm not alone.

Brokeback I expect to garner good reviews. It has the pedigree. Good director. Popular source material. But the general public? Thats the big test. Whens it opening?

It's opening very limited in early December, somewhat wider at the end of the month, and then wide in January. The usual Oscar platform.

I think it will be successful in a reasonable way. This isn't meant to be a huge blockbuster, it's a low-budget specialty release. I think at least $30 mil is the goal here and it's definitely attainable based on that pattern, and here's why:

1. The initial limited release is definitely going to have a huge per-screen average. There's a lot of pent-up interest in this movie in LA/NY and you'd better believe everyone's going to see it opening weekend. This, in turn, is going to draw some more headlines and at least give the movie perceived momentum as it goes into its wider release pattern.

2. This movie is going to be a conversation piece. Hell, it already is in these parts, but imagine when the broader media has their go at it. I think the literate filmgoer is going to feel like this is one of the season's must-sees.

3. The movie is already attracting some serious awards buzz, and will definitely have a fervent contingent of voters on its side going into awards season. Assuming that it picks up some Oscar noms (cinematography, screenplay, Ledger), that should at least keep it going for a while. And if it does manage to snag a Best Pic nom, that will be an enormous boost to the B.O. Most comparable cases are other Best Pic noms with limited release but much-talked about star turns, like "The Pianist" and "The Hours," that have done in the $30-$50 mil range.

>

That's what others have said...but mostly those who haven't seen this movie. Hilary Swank wasn't in anything even remotely Oscar worthy in between "Boys Don't Cry" and "Million Dollar Baby". I really think this role is a shoe-in for Theron, because I think she's actually better in North Country than she was in Monster (and it's all about her weight or make-up)

You mean Theron won't win for Aeon Flux?

Actually, based on my moviegoing in NY tonight--Just Like Heaven may underperform--while the theatre was 90% full, big 20-30M movies normally sell out an hour or so beforehand. That said, NY is not the ultra-key market for it--it's squarely shot at middle America.

Emily Rose was continuing to sell out, though not as rapidly as it was last weekend.

And Brokeback will be huge in limited release, but will crater thereafter--the people who want to see will rush to see it, and then after that, nada.

That brings up a good question, Matt... name some of the "blue state" (read: artsy fartsy) movies that have end up doing well in middle America? Pulp Fiction? American Beauty?

(I'm talking the $100 mil club here)

One thing Pulp Fiction isn't is artsy fartsy. It is hugely entertaining and well pulpy. Nice combo to have to make 100 plus.

What was the last limited release artsy fartsy that did well? None. Theres a reason why they're limited releases. Because they don't have box office appeal.

I don't think anybody assosciating with the movie (Brokeback Mountain) is expecting $100mil gross. In fact there really hasn't a movie like this before so you can't really tell at all how it's going to go.

Sure, big actors have "gone gay" before but none have in gay romance movies.

I think it's opening week though will have a scorching screen average. Huge.

But, still, I don't think it'll reach anything extremely high, but it doesn't need to. It's a small budget movie. It's not one of these big-budget prestige movies starting small to get press, it's actually low-budget (granted, not miniscule like some) and doesn't need to break box-office records to be a success.

However, it is one of those movies that, if it is good, will definitely get some repeat business. I'm one that thinks people overestimate repeat business too much (most people don't go to see anything twice at the cinema) but this movie (like most ROMANCE movies) will get some I believe. It's what made Titanic such a hit. it's what made Ghost such a hit. etc

None of that romantic comedy bull, this is epic romance and if ever there's a genre that is born for repeat viewings it's the romance genre (and musicals of course).

Ledger is definitely on the up-and-up in terms of Oscar potential. And those that immediately disparage him, consider this: Adrian Brody.

The President of the Heath Ledger Fan Club!

$5.6 million on Friday for Just Like Heaven. $3.2 million for Lord of War.

Brokeback has almost no chance of crossing over unless its a terrific film. And some of the reviews aren't saying that. Maybe I missed it but when has Jake G or Heath L ever drawn a crowd to a movie?

Kind of goes without saying that a specialty release needs to be good to cross over, doesn't it?

As far as Jake and Heath fanbases, I think that misses the point. This isn't a movie going wide into 3,000 theaters to make a huge opening weekend. You don't need a Tom Hanks.

I think My Big Fat Greek Wedding conclusively disproves the postulate that a speciality release must be good to cross over. And those Friday grosses will make no one happy. 60% week to week drop for Emily Rose, and Just Like Heaven underperforming.

Did Unfinished Life go wider? Because it seems to be doing surprisingly well.

I saw Lord of War. It's pretty entertaining overall. It's a dark comedy for sure...but it has a valid point about the way the world works...anyhow...worth the matinee price at the very least.

I saw it too and was disappointed. I feel bad knocking a smart movie that has a lot to say but it was dramatically inert to me, a story that would have played a lot better as a book than a film.

I will always give Andrew Niccol a free pass because of "Gattaca," but his weakness for writing on-the-nose dialogue is really glaring here. The movie repeatedly underlines and highlights every point at the expense of subtlety -- to wit, playing Eric Clapton's "Cocaine" during a montage about cocaine. Thanks, Andrew. I get it.

seeing it tomorrow...can't wait...love cage and really enjoy Niccol's work thus far.

Nice one Sanchez. Just because I stick up for the guy and he's an Aussie (like myself) so I actually want him to succeed.

And, huh?

"Brokeback has almost no chance of crossing over unless its a terrific film. And some of the reviews aren't saying that. Maybe I missed it but when has Jake G or Heath L ever drawn a crowd to a movie? "

Okay, as people have already said - being good goes without saying. And oh, "some reviews" don't say it's good. Like David? I'll hazard a guess and say that WHEN THE MOVIE IS ACTUALLY RELEASED (which is nearly 2 months away) it'll have a nice Rotten Tomatoes rating.

But that's sort of like saying that every movie that has "crossed over" has had 100% positive reception. No movie gets that unless you're Clint or someone like that and even his last movie had it's staunch naysayers.

Yes, Brokeback will probably not blow the box-office away (er, no pun if you took as one) but it should at least do respectable business for gay-themed romance starring a bunch of people that, apparently, nobody even likes.

(Jake has never "opened" a film because he's never been in a film that needed him to "open" it.)

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