« Jeff Wells Loses His Shit | Main | Cruise Changing Publicist »

November 06, 2005

Sunday Estimates - 11/6

Not a lot of new info.

Chicken Little is estimating even higher than Klady's numbers below. That studio number will probably come back to Klady, but still, a strong show on Saturday after an okay Friday. Disney went out of its way to call Reuters to tell them that the reviews and Friday open weren't upsetting.

Jarhead didn't have the big Saturday leap, but still, $28.8 for a movie that skews old, R, and poorly reviewed is a happy weekend for Universal. Thank you, Kanye West!

Good Night, And Good Luck, Shopgirl and Capote all still show a lot of interest in limited release.

Chicken Little - $39.6 (10,830) - 3654 - New - 39.6
Jarhead - $28.8 (11,960) - 2411 - New - 28.8
Saw II - $17.1 (5,810) - 2949 -46% - 60.4
Legend of Zorro $10.1 (2,860) - 3520 -38% - 30.4
Prime - $5.4 (2,940) - 1837 -13% - 13.6
Dreamer - $4.7 (1,810) - 2617 -23% - 23.8
Good Night,GL - $3.1 (4,670) - +657% - +153 - 11.0 -
Weather Man - $2.8 (1,890) - 1510 -33% - 8.6
Shopgirl - $2.5 (5,140) - 459 - +445% - 2.5 -
Flightplan - $2.3 (1,590) - 1445 -16% - 84.4

Capote - $.88 (4,710) - 187 -20% - 4.8

Posted by poland at November 6, 2005 10:19 AM

Comments

A great weekend. Good openings...great holds. No complaints from me.

It's amazing to see Flightplan still in the top ten. It has no chance of 100m, but 90+ isn't out of reach.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 10:42 AM

grotesque that a great little movie like the weather man will end up with less than $20 million domestic. but good to see that people are going back to the theater a bit more. nice opening for Jarhead, though I think that it will drop in the weeks to come, considering the lack of action/violence that people were probably expecting. i thought it was great personally.

Posted by: cullen [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 10:51 AM

jarhead may turn out to be one of those rare dramas to may big $ in spite of so-so reviews, r-rating, no major awards push, etc. Timely subject matter, good ads, and a good cast may overcome the lack of awards consideration.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 10:59 AM

The Newark Star-Ledger gave "Jarhead" a rave review. Every big-city daily newspaper is propping up support for an increasingly unpopular war abroad -- just like the trailer for "Jarhead".

Cullen is right: "Jarhead" will drop as other upmarket titles open, notably "Pride & Prejudice" and "Rent".

Don't expect "Capote" to make a bigger splash. Sony Pictures Classics is ass-backwards when it comes to distribution.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 11:07 AM

I saw Jarhead, Capote and Shopgirl over the weekend. Easily one of the best movie going weekends I've had this year. And how about that hold for Prime? Pretty impressive.

Posted by: Stella's Boy [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 11:17 AM

GN, GL expansion was just ok. Now, Capote isn't going well at all, less than 5000 per screen below 200 screens is bad for a film hoping for a best pic nom, looks pretty hard to get to 20m.

Posted by: Filipe [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 11:24 AM

"Thank you, Kanye West!"


True that, DP, true fucking that. Having the exact opposite effect of Iggy Pop and The Weather Man campaign.

Posted by: Crow T Robot [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 11:56 AM

28$ for Jarhead is a huge number for them. I'm impressed. 8 bucks of that is mine.

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 12:04 PM

Is "Jesus Walks" in the movie? I didn't get having that song in the ads. I'm pretty sure it was not around back then, at least not in the 1991 I lived through.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 12:33 PM

End credits only, I believe.

The biggest box-office surprise for me is that Saw II dropped by less than 50%.

Chucky, did you see Jarhead and is it still your
belief as per Jonathan Rosenbaum that the movie is 'pro-war'?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 01:16 PM

Saw 2 has to be a huge moneymaker. It couldn't have cost them more than 10 bucks for that.

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 01:19 PM

It cost $4m for production and will gross $80+, I don't think it has a lot of competition in upcoming weeks for the youth market.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 01:27 PM

It's an instrumental version of "Jesus Walks" over the end credits--basically, take out Kanye's rap.

And I don't think Jarhead is either prowar or anti-war. It's just "war is." (Which is one of its problems as a film--it doesn't go much of anywhere.)

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 01:41 PM

i still think Saw 1 underperformed theatrically. It was released amongst a number of BIG horror/genre movies like Blade 3, Resident Evil 2, The Grudge, and still opened big and did over $50. Saw 1 in an empty market would have done something similar to what Saw 2 is doing. Which is probably going to be about $100 mill.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 01:49 PM

I think that's more a sign that the horror market was underserved and looking for anything that wasn't totally horrible (aka The Fog and Doom). If there had been another Grudge-type movie out with a name star to compete, it would have cleaned up.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 02:05 PM

I think you mean a horror movie that doesn't APPEAR to be totally horrible, because The Grudge was BAD. Even Feardotcom held tension better than that movie. It just didn't appear that way from the ads, and it hit the mainstream as well as the horror fans who apparantly show up at almost every horror movie, so it made some cash. You get horror movies to the mainstream, you'll make money no matter how bad they are.

Posted by: Joe Straat [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 04:30 PM

Marketing and a star like Sarah Michelle Gellar got butts in seats, but it's no worse a movie than Saw II, and it was VASTLY better than The Fog, which was a real snoozer. (never saw Doom).

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 04:33 PM

The Kanye West song in the end credits really takes you out of the movie and the time period it was set (early '90s)

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 04:48 PM

Weaving Kanye West's song into a kind of "hi-ho, here we go" theme for the soldiers was brilliant. It sets a real mood (something trailers struggle to do well now) and gets the attention of youngsters in an almost Pavlovian way. Who cares if the actual song doesn't have much to do with the film itself. This is savvy marketing and it hit better than anyone could expect.

Also: The movie features a Nirvana song that wasn't released until the fall of '91. One can always nitpick but I'm willing to let it slide. It's not exactly "A Knight's Tale."

Posted by: Crow T Robot [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 04:56 PM

I may be really out of the loop but I've never even heard a song from this West guy.

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 05:12 PM

Saw 1 underperformed? Did it have any expectations?

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 05:19 PM

Like it or not, we're guaranteed a few more Saw sequels.

Posted by: PandaBear [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 05:53 PM

kanye west would bug me more than nirvana. it could be argued that some of the tracks like nirvana's and some of the rap tracks came out months or so after the gulf war, but they were probably being mixed or written while the war was going on.. so not really unfair to put them in the movie. But the only legit place to put "Jesus Walks" in the film would have been the end credits, so that's where it went (end creds are more timeless).

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 06:07 PM

"And I don't think Jarhead is either prowar or anti-war. It's just "war is." (Which is one of its problems as a film--it doesn't go much of anywhere.)"

Actually this was Jonathan's argument. He never called it pro-war, just pointed that it can be read as such by someone who wants it (pretty much the same thing Mendes does with Apocalypse Now in it).

Posted by: Filipe [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 07:21 PM

If you want to badly enough, anyone can read what they want into a movie. That's hardly the movie's fault, although obviously some movies are clearer than others as to their intentions.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2005 08:39 PM

i didn't get an anti war vibe from it. i got a "swofford is a tortured and confused guy" vibe.

Posted by: bicycle bob [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 09:01 AM

I think guys in their mid-20's will love this film and turn it into a huge hit.

I was mixed on it. I mean I knew there'd be SOME similarities to Full Metal Jacket...but for the love of God!!!

Posted by: Hopscotch [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 10:28 AM

Saw 2 lost only 46%. I would have guessed it would have lost plus 60%. It is holding on strong.

Posted by: Terence D [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 10:33 AM

I went to see The Weather Man. Not as bad as some were saying. Not a great showing but it kept me busy for a time.

Posted by: BluStealer [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 01:43 PM

The Weather Man was a waste of time. Who has been giving Nic Cage advice? His kid is going to really resent him in a few years. He better be tough.

Posted by: Mark Ziegler [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 02:26 PM

When I think early 90's I think grunge. Nirvana is grunge.

Posted by: Sanchez [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2005 05:55 PM

Jarhead's use of an instrumental version of 'Jesus Walks' sounds fine enough. The person creating the score didn't make it in 1990, but it's still there I'm sure.

I think Jarhead will far next weekend because I think some people expected a Black Hawk Down type of movie (they did have similar openings) but Jarhead is definitely not like Black Hawk Down. But you guys should take your Jarhead discussion to the Jarhead thread David started up.

Saw IIs hold is extremely impressive. The Fog also had a similar hold a few weeks back.

Prime's GREAT hold would be considered much greater if it the fall was from a number much more impressive than $6mil or whatever it opened to last week. It's still only at $12mil!

The Weather Man is, I suppose, what happens when you advertise a depressing movie as a depressing movie with nothing else to it.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2005 12:02 AM

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Remember me?