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November 27, 2005
Sunday Estimates/Analysis 11/27/05
Using BoxOfficeMojo, it is impossible to be sure, since their in-depth numbers only go a few years back, but it looks like this 5-day Thanksgiving may break the record set in 2000 when the second weekend of The Grinch combined with $80 million combined launch of Unbreakable and 102 Dalmations.
For clarity, the $162.1 million 3-day is second to the 2000 record-holding Grinch weekend. But the 5-day may be the best ever, given that Rent, Just Friends and others were a bit front-loaded at the box office.
If indeed this is the second straight record-breaking weekend at the box office, what angle will the boo birds use to keep the dream of a box office apocalypse going? Bet on a lot of chatter about ticket prices being higher than ever and a focus on approximated numbers of ticket sold (since there are no public reports on the actual numbers of tickets sold, expect for the MPAA’s annual address at ShoWest).
As for Potter, the biggest surprise is not its success, but rather how similar it is to Harry Potter & The Chamber of Secrets, the last Potter movie to arrive in November. Potter 2 opened a week early than IV, but still, by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend, they are neck & neck in box office total. Of course, the extra week means something. But as we head into December – particularly starting the second weekend – the competition is more important than the time. Also, the front-loading of box office has continued apace since November 2002, as the massive opening weekend last week suggests. I would expect Goblet of Fire to become the second highest grossing Potter film… but to come up a little short of $300 million.
Walk The Line… solid… ‘nuff said.
Rent did more than a quarter of its 5-day total on Wednesday. As I’ve said… $50 million is a long way off.
Len Klady points out that Syriana did huge business in just 5 theaters, with a $77,600 per screen average, which may be a record.
Pride & Prejudice expanded decently though its per-screen was not overwhelming, slightly lower than for Yours, Mine & Ours. And a note... Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason grossed $6.2 million last year on the Thanksgiving 3-day weekend.
The Polar Express added another $1.2 million to its domestic total with a holiday re-run on 66 IMAX screens. I saw the film again last week and it really is a singular cinema experience on IMAX. If you love film, you have to go if you haven’t already experienced this.
Jarhead is now looking like it will gross just a little more domestically as, surprise!, Cinderella Man. Soon we will be asked to rediscover Jarhead, right? (I am actually quite curious about seeing that film again.)
Title / Distributor / Gross (average) / % change / Theaters / Cume
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire / WB / 55.2 (14,300) / -46% / 3858 / 201.4
Walk the Line / Fox / 19.5 (6,200) / -13% / 3138 / 54.5
Yours, Mine and Ours / Par / 17.3 (5,400) / / 3206 / 24.3
Chicken Little / BV / 12.8 (3,670) / -13% / 3475 / 118.6
Rent / Sony / 10.5 (4,300) / / 2433 / 17.7
Just Friends / New Line / 9.3 (3,720) / / 2505 / 13.6
Pride and Prejudice / Focus / 6.9 (5,300) / 221% / 1299 / 15.6
Derailed / Weinstein Co / 4.6 (2,250) / -29% / 2061 / 29.3
In the Mix / Lions Gate / 4.5 (2,820) / / 1608 / 6.3
The Ice Harvest / Focus / 3.7 (2,360) / / 1550 / 5.1
Zathura / Sony / 3.6 (1,110) / -30% / 3232 / 25.9
Jarhead / Uni / 2.9 (1,800) / -39% / 1601 / 59.4
Saw II / Lions Gate / 2.2 (1,670) / -44% / 1326 / 84
Get Rich or Die Tryin' / Par / 2.1 (1,760) / -52% / 1213 / 28.4
Good Night, and Good Luck / WIP / 1.8 (2,980) / 10% / 617 / 19.5
The Polar Express Imax (reissue) / WB / 1.2 (18,360) / / 66 / 1.4
Maurice Richard / Alliance / .94 (7,010) / / 134 / 0.94
Capote / Sony Classics / .92 (3,610) / 9% / 255 / 9.1
The Legend of Zorro / Sony / .87 (1,130) / -63% / 767 / 44.5
Shopgirl / BV / .75 (2,180) / -27% / 344 / 8.8
Dreamer / DreamWorks / .52 (900) / -57% / 579 / 31.7
Posted by poland at November 27, 2005 11:38 AM
Comments
I've seen JARHEAD twice, and that second viewing was downright interminable. There's just no meat on the bone. Like Mendes's past two films, it's a simple tale feigning depth.
CINDERELLA MAN is a very simple movie, too, but at least it's honest about its ambitions, and, on a classical storytelling level, succeeds rousingly. It would've been a contender had it been released this month - and made things very difficult for Universal what with KING KONG and MUNICH crowding the inside track.
Posted by: Jeremy Smith ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at November 27, 2005 04:29 PM
You mean, Mendes' only two films.
I thought The Polar Express in Imax was not much more than a big amusement park ride.
It strikes me that tickets sold is a much more important number than unadjusted grosses.
Posted by: jeffmcm at November 27, 2005 04:42 PM
Tickets sold are just one variable. More importantly, none of us have real statistics on this. Per screen average is inaccurate as it goes, since theater count is not a firm stat, and numbers of shows is also variable.
It would be great to have stats like seats available, seats sold, city by city breakouts, etc. That is not available to us. And ticket sales are nothing but an estimate.
The only stat that is remotely confirmable outside of the studio accounting offfice is the gross.
Additionally, a legitimate analysis of the health of the industry would involve foreign and home entertainment, plus other ancillaries, every time.
The idea that domestic theatrical is happening in a vacuum is false. Studio-financed films are all taking all markets into account when budgeting. So The Island is not close to being the disaster worldwide that we see it as here. But at the same time, we don't know exactly what the deal between WB and DW is on the film, so we all tend ot be shooting in the dark a bit.
Posted by: David Poland at November 27, 2005 05:12 PM
Actually, the estimated Top 10 for the 3-day weekend was about a million less than the Top 10 during the 3 day last Thanksgiving....
SLUMP!!!!!!!!! :)
It's going to be a shame when January comes around and we won't be able to incite David so easily. :)
Posted by: EDouglas at November 27, 2005 05:14 PM
Next year I'll be pissed off about the false "up" trend. Or alternately, the lack of any focus on choices that are made by the studios since they are not as easily thrown into the "it all sucks... better watch Tv on an IPod" pot.
Posted by: David Poland at November 27, 2005 06:01 PM
Can you explain that last sentence, DP? Too many clauses.
Posted by: jeffmcm at November 27, 2005 06:42 PM
The "slump," which only became a story in the summer, even though the first quarter was waaaaay off, has become an easy target. When the target is more complex, it becomes uninteresting to those who are just trend hoppers.
So, if next year we start to see certain kinds of erosion that are not as easily quantified, I suspect that there will be very little mainstream coverage. And that will piss me off too, as it has for years. The horrid irony of all this "moving to new technology" trend hopping is the alleged probelms with the business were caused by the shortened window... which no one bothers to think about as they suggest an even shorter window = salvation.
Posted by: David Poland at November 27, 2005 06:50 PM
Thanks, makes sense.
Posted by: jeffmcm at November 27, 2005 06:58 PM
We have to start giving Walk the Line it's due as an award contender with the box office it is doing now.
Posted by: Angelus21 at November 27, 2005 07:46 PM
Actually, I wouldn't expect January to be much better, since this past January seemed like one of the strongest ones in years, and the line-up so far looks pathetic at best. At least I remember having more $20 million openers this past January than we did in October, and remembering what an oddity that was.
Posted by: EDouglas at November 27, 2005 08:32 PM
Angelus, I've had the firm belief that Walk The Line was the strongest contender for BP out of all of them. Munich and Brokeback Mountain and Memoirs of a Geisha and all the others all have big IFs hanging over them. And now that will reach $100mil and, hell, it could do A Beautiful Mind business and reach $160mil, it's in its best position yet. It's good to see a movie that was critically liked get the corrosponsive box-office.
And, Douglas, I do remember how everyone was so shocked at how well 2005's January went. Multiple $20mil openings. And for silly lame movies like Boogeymen that if it had opened now would probably get around $5mil and a quick exit to DVD.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at November 28, 2005 06:46 AM
The most sold out movie I saw an my hometown cineplex was Pride and Prejudice, the early afternoon showings were selling out. I think that it'll be the big sleeper hit this month.
I'd say Walk the Line is definitely now a serious Awards Contender on all fronts. It's a crowd pleaser for sure.
Posted by: Hopscotch at November 28, 2005 11:07 AM
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