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everyone I know read LW&W when they were ten--don't know why so many naysayers on the board assuming it would bomb--whether it is good or not it will be big simply becasue so many will want to see a favorite childhood read. i am not religious, and even if the movie is heavy heanded with the allegory, I'd still go pay to see it.

my goodness Syriana seems to be doing well. George seems to be involved in two decent movies this year.

Well, the other thing this weekend does is basically lock up the actress win for Witherspoon, right? "Mrs. Henderson" is a disaster, and that's going to kill Judi Dench, and the bitter taste of box office failure is likely to hurt Charlize (though, honestly, "Aeon Flux" is not that bad). Can Huffman give Witherspoon a run for her money?

"Brokeback" will get to a 100K PSA almost assuredly, which is impressive, but the question mark is does it have a broader audience, because "Geisha" almost certainly will.

Box Office Mojo is saying the estimate for Narnia is $23.9 - is he lowballing the figure because his weekend prediction (53.9) was uhhhh.... low?

That figure might be for Friday alone. Just a guess.

The Narnia numbers will be all over the map due not only to midnight screenings, but also special churchgroup screenings all over the country on Thursday (which, I believe, will be added to the weekend gross).

Ruchard Pryor died! Boy, that sucks.

^ Richard, obviously. Wish this had an edit feature.

RIP Mr Pryor.

not sure why P&P and Rent are comparable. P&P is some arty, modestly-budgeted, dull-looking costume affair that got ok reviews and had very little heat. $30 mill finish seems good to me. Rent cost a ton, major director, lots of awards heat, supposed teen appeal, and will finish with same. Rent - loser. P&P - winner. Plus Pride did a ton overseas which Rent is unlikely to do.

henderson looked awful from the trailers and dench is hardly box office, why would anyone expect it to make money?

A british, costume-drammy looking tranny movie? Did I miss the groundswell for these sorts of things?

a poorly-reviewed movie about old-style japanese whores making money? since when?

Wow, never underestimate the power of the family audience. This definitely wipes away the failure of Walden's Around the World remake.

Around the World was a head scratcher. Why Anschulz and Granat thought that would sell (at a $100m budget) will remain a mystery.

One thing Judi Dench is not is Box Office.

They could have made some money if Mrs. Henderson was more of a Full Monty-style crowdpleaser, but it's not...fairly rambling and pointless and only mildly entertaining.

For some reason that box office declaration about Judi Dench is making me laugh.

I don't think anyone thought Judi had the pulling power of, say, Tom Cruise, but I'm sure the Weinsteins counted on the total package of an older-skewing, veddy English comedy being somewhat potent. And maybe they'll be able to salvage that ship, but they didn't send it out very auspiciously.

Wow, if Mrs. Henderson tanks, does that rule out any chance of it getting into the Best Picture race?

I'm not convinced it had a strong shot at that in the first place. Best Actress, yes -- it's a thin year, and a small earner didn't stop Dench when she picked up a nomination for "Mrs. Brown," which played well to the Academy.

Don't underestimate Harvey's ability to get Dame Judi on the final ballot.

"A british, costume-drammy looking tranny movie? Did I miss the groundswell for these sorts of things?"

This really is hysterically funny. I'd love to live in a world where granny trannies are in high demand. Actually, no.

Granny tanny's. Just eat my own puke. Gross.

Narnia's success just goes to show how many people either read the book or had it read to them in elementary school. I never found the series that special, but when you get it out to a mass audience you find a lot of people who do see it that way. A brilliant showing for a film with no major stars except Neeson's voice.

I really never even heard of the books til the movie. And I read a lot. Maybe not enough. I thought the movie was good so I'm going to read the collection.

Henderson is playing in the Laemmle Sunset (by the director's guild) and another Laemmle's Royal in LA.

That's it.

Really incredibly terrible booking job by the Weinstein company.

Brokeback Mountain went on three screens at the Grove for all of LA and is pulling in massive money.

I think the lesson here is open your exclusive engagement at the Grove or at the Arclight if you want to make any money.

charming movie, one of my favorites of the year, shame to see it so mishandled.

Dave, no comments on this ridiculous box office analysis of Kong, etc.?

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/12/10/051210172832.h0mbgvu2.html

The fact that they think Waterworld came out in 1999, and not 1995, is enough to make it suspect. I also find it incredibly hard to believe that the original Kong only cost $10m in 2005 dollars.

basically all the #'s in that article are wrong. Makes you almost wonder - is the story a plant? One thing that story does directly is state that, contrary to popular opinion, Kong is not the biggest budget of all time. Which for some in the studio might be a good idea to get out in the press in case it underperforms.

the original Kong film was made fairly cheaply, they shot it simultaneously with The Most Dangerous Game to save money. Same sets and some of the cast.

Isn't King Kong the 6th most expensive? That's what my MSN Today is telling me for some reason (apparently it's news?)

Anyway. Damn shame about Mrs Henderson Presents - another movie that could so easily have been an Oscar favourite going down the tube.

Dench and Hoskins will get in the race of virtue of their stature alone, but now it has just gotten much much harder to get anything else. Sigh.

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