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January 14, 2006

Friday Estimates By Klady

Not a lot to say. Glory Road and Last Holiday are both movies aimed at specific niches and should remain strong in those niches. Even off 58%, Hostel has done fine for Lions Gate and continues to do okay with its niche. And Hoodwinked, which has barely been advertised or touted, could do $9 million in its niche market, which while even behind the $12.2 million weekend for Derailed, has to be considered the Weinstein Company’s best opening so far, given the costs involved and the lack of Ms. Aniston’s cover grabbing skills.

Fun With Dick & Jane is stumbling to that $100 million mark, but anyone who tells you that it’s okay is full of it. The movie was very, very expensive for a comedy and it will be Carrey’s lowest comedy gross since 1996’s The Cable Guy except for Me, Myself & Irene, which was a hard R and cost half as much to make.

I am a bit impressed with Tristan & Isolde opening at all… even $7 million. I mean, oy.

The Chronic-What-Cles Of Narnia passed $250 million this week and King Kong should hit $200 million domestic this weekend. Kong’s gross will easily pass $500 million worldwide, which should make it profitable in DVD. That said, Kong is the fourth film to be part of a new landmark: movies considered disappointments with more than $500 million gross worldwide. Terminator III and War of the Worlds are two of them, both under $600 million worldwide. But of course, the stupidest of these is The Matrix Reloaded, which $739 million worldwide later is still called “a flop.” (And then there is Matrix Revolutions, a “disaster” to many with only $425 million worldwide.)

Then again, what will wags say when Narnia tops out at $150 million less than any Harry Potter movie and $200 million less than any Rings film? Whatever they will say, they should say nothing and get a handle on reality.

Brokeback Mountain, expanding to 683 screens, is still doing very well in still limited release, though it is still behind movies like Hostel, Memoirs of a Geisha, Rent and The Ringer in total gross… so is “the cultural phenomenon” people reading about it in the newspaper and on the web or people actually seeing it in the theater? It may be a provocative question, but someone has to have the guts to ask it. Twice as many people have seen The Family Stone as Brokeback Mountain. So how do those who keep saying that there is a major crossover cultural event happening measure that impact? (And if you can spare the bile while explaining, it will keep the blog from pitting.)

Munich remains pretty unimpressive at the box office.

Title / Distributor / Gross* / Theaters / % Change / Cume
Glory Road / BV / 4.4 / 2222 / New / 4.4
Last Holiday / Par / 3.8 / 2514 / New / 3.8
Hostel / Lions Gate / 3.2 / 2337 / -58% / 28.4
Hoodwinked / Weinstein Co. / 2.7 / 2394 / New / 2.7
Fun with Dick and Jane / Sony / 2.6 / 3239 / -32% / 86.5
Tristan & Isolde / Fox / 2.5 / 1845 / New / 2.5
The Chronicles of Narnia / BV / 2.4 / 3224 / -41% / 253.6
King Kong / Uni / 2 / 2814 / -43% / 197.3
Brokeback Mountain / Focus / 1.5 / 683 / -11% / 26.6
Munich / Uni / 1.4 / 1498 / -40% / 29.3
Memoirs of a Geisha / Sony / 1.3 / 1654 / -31% / 41.1

Posted by poland at January 14, 2006 01:16 PM

Comments

I think it's mostly about expectations. "Brokeback Mountain" and "Narnia" are outperforming their original expectations, "King Kong" and "Munich" are not. So the former are heralded as hits and the latter are touted as disappointments.

Posted by: James Leer [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:12 PM

What counts as a 'cultural phenomenon' anyway? Do you need Forrest Gump level grosses or are Napoleon Dynamite figures enough?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:18 PM

I think it's interesting that the "entrance fee" into the Top 10 this weekend is going to increse to $5 million from $4.5 million last week. I remember weekends where limited releases could get in with $2 to 3 million. Not sure what exactly that says about the box office, if anything...maybe that business is being spread out more among new and returning movies than it being all about the best marketed new movies? (All four new movies this weekend are spreading out the business pretty evenly even if Glory Road is getting the advantage)

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:22 PM

i thought kong would hold up better, looks like its about to drop off the charts and finish with $210 or so, which is about what austin powers 2 and armageddon made. Not bad, but people thought Kong would be a record-setter. Perception is still with domestic #'s, since these are also the numbers that power domestic rentals and sales. So the fact that Kong will do solid international markets is beside the point in perception. Island made a ton of money overseas, you hear anyone calling that movie a hit?

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:23 PM

Family Stone has played in 2,000 more theatres than Brokeback Mountain (which is in its most theatres to date this weekend) and the latter still seems to be spending more time in the Top 10. I think once BBM wins the Golden Globe on Monday, it's going to start its move towards the $50 million mark. I have a feeling that Focus is just waiting for a couple more high profile awards before putting it into more rural areas.

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:26 PM

I think the key term here is "relatively speaking", isn't it Dave? Not that I’m a fan of trickle down economics, but there is a kind of "trickle down" effect with things like BBM, where just having the film talked about in the media, on Jay Leno, at the Golden Globes, etc., has a positive impact. As of yesterday, "Brokeback Mountain" is playing in Provo, Utah, where I’ve spent some time. It’s perhaps one of the most conservative cities in the country. A while back people were picketing a mall there for daring to stay open on Sundays, breaking the Sabbath day and all. Just having that film’s title on a marquee as people drive past the theater, will have a cultural impact on the people that city in terms of asserting the cultural legitimacy of gay issues.

The question of the film’s artistic worthiness, is, of course, a completely different one and has nothing to do with its initial box office success. To me, the best gay film released in the US last year was Sébastien Lifshitz’s "Wild Side", and I think it played theatrically in four cities or something. The best film, to m (and I still haven’t seen all of the 05 releases) was "Syriana." Do I wish it was doing better? Sure. But films affect societies in many different ways, and the way in which BBM will effect American culture is still to be determined, but so far, I think every honest person would have to say it’s having a positive effect in terms of straights understanding what gays are going through, just as "Crash" is having a positive effect in terms of thinking about racism.

Not to get too personal, again, but you honestly don’t think Spielberg will have failed if BBM outgrosses "Munich," will you. I’ll bet you’ll more likely feel that filmgoers failed to rally around a great film. Many will say the same thing about the fact that BBM isn’t doing as well as "Hostel" or "The Family Stone." Have a good time in Park City.

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:28 PM

I don't judge creative success or failure by box office and I don't just financial success or failure based on aesthetics. So your comment about Munich and BBM is completely correct to me, D-Boy.

How do I judge Sideways as a cultural phenomenon? By its effect on the Merlot business. But it is still a narrow part of the culture.

And sorry, but I don’t think the 8 million people who saw Crash are being changed in their perception of racism. I think people who chose to see the movie were already the choir. I don’t think Million Dollar Baby has changed many minds on euthanasia. And I don’t think BBM has changed much for gay people in America.

And how do I measure that effect? Is the market better for black actors since Denzel and Halle?

Do you really believe a single gay-bashing right-winger is going to BBM and seeing the light?

I wish you were right. I hope you are right. But I don’t believe it.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:50 PM

I didn't think Sideways had any pretension to become a cultural phenomenon. I do believe that Brokeback is having a positive impact and I think your above statement is just plain stubborn at this point. I guess you just shrugged off your thread where people posted what they loved about the film. But that's just my opinion.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 02:52 PM

Can a movie be a "cultural phenomenon" without generating big box office numbers? I think that it is a legitimate question. But I think that the answer has to be that, in this day and age, when a love story between two men has won most of the major critics awards and is seriously contending for the best picture oscar, then that movie meets the definition of a "cultural phenomenon". I also seem to remember reading on this blog that Mr. Poland made a bet that the grosses for BBM would not exceed $20 million--a bet that he will now have to make good on. So the box office numbers for BBM have exceeded even Mr. Poland's miserly expectations.

Many theater people consider Angels in America to be a landmark play--it won the Putlizer prize and two Tonys. And yet the grosses for the two parts of Angels have to be a tiny fraction of the grosses for one of the big musicals.

It is simply a fact that a book, play or movie can have an cultural impact that is disproportionate to its profitability.

Posted by: steve4992 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 03:01 PM

I think "Family Stone" has been seen by twice as many people because they've had access to it. There are many "Brokeback Mountain" boards where people have commented that they can't wait to see, it's only showing a hundred miles away and they might have to wait for DVD, things like that. Money-wise, it will catch up with and likely surpass movies like "The Ringer" and "Memoirs Of A Geisha" (which is done, kaput, finished). And depending on the next couple weeks, I can see BBM outgrossing "Hostel" in the long run.

As far as cultural phenom goes, I don't know. I've never really heard it described as such outside of this forum. I actually don't want it to be a cultural phenom because the impact I want it to have is on other filmmaker/producers who will see that smart, small budget films can succeed in the marketplace if handled well. If people look at its success and say, "Well, yes, but that was a unique situation because of the subject matter", they might not take the risk. I wish they could have found a way to market "The Squid And The Whale" along the lines of BBM so it could have earned more.

I'm surprised at the lack of response to "Munich". I haven't seen it, but it looks like such a smart, adult film, I thought it would definitely find a bigger audience. But now I ask myself, if I'm a smart adult, why haven't I gone to see it? Hmm...I have to chew on that one.

One last quick thought -- as much as I want BBM to win Best Pic at the Globes, I wouldn't give it the trophy yet, EDouglas. Those awards are, if anything, highly unpredictable (but I promise to celebrate any awards it gets).

Posted by: hepwa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 03:04 PM

We just opened BBM last night. It was sold out for both shows. I saw the later show. It was packed with gay people. So, I don't know that it is changing minds. I am sure it did the best business of any movie in that theater because I didn't see anyone going into any other theater but BBM and no other movie was sold out (and this wasn't a small auditorium). David, you have to know that BBM is playing in about 60% fewer screens than any of those movies you mentioned, so when BBM gets to that level of screen count, your assertions may be justified. However, I really doubt that. BBM has the highest per screen in the top 10. The fact that it opened well in this conservative town that I live in is a testament to its success. I believe that you will see success on DVD where people will see it in there own homes who might be embarrassed to be seen at the multiplex purchasing a ticket (again about the changing minds thing, not so sure).

I would be interested in seeing a gay love story between two men who don't have to get married and meet ever so often to get their rocks off. Then, if it were a success, we could say minds have been changed somewhat. I guess we have to be satisfied with baby steps, though.

I still think Crash is the best movie of the year and deserves the Oscar for best picture. It was entertaining from beginning to end and was an eye-opener. Ever since I have seen that movie, I try to see if my words or actions are racist because that movie dared to point out that we all have some racism inside us, at least a little. I feel that movie made me a better person that the one who went into that movie. BBM did not change me all that much, although it was a beautiful story and was well told.

By the way, why is Anne Hathaway being overlooked for awards? She made just as much an impression on me in her short screen time as anyone else, if not more.

Posted by: JohnBritt [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 03:10 PM

Sideways was a cultural phenomenon in terms of actually affecting the wine business. BBM is even more of a cultural phenomenon because while its box office has not been huge, it has people debating and talking about homosexuality and gay marriage. To me, that's an even more significant phenomenon than a spike in wine sale.

People may not have seen BBM or even plan to see it, they still talk about it. They can't help it. It's everywhere: newspapers, magazine, SNL, talk shows, blogs, etc.

While I don't really care for the fact that you don't like the film, and your reasons to dislike it are sensible enough, I don't like how stubborn you are in refusing to admit that this movie is important to American culture right now.

Posted by: waterbucket [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 03:59 PM

"Do you really believe a single gay-bashing right-winger is going to BBM and seeing the light?"

Not necessarily, but what about the fairly average conservative person (and I've known several) who has seen the movie and thought more about gay people than they ever had before?

It doesn't even have to be conservative people. I've known plenty of liberal people for whom it's adjusted their way of thinking. I'm not saying that the movie has to do that -- I think it works on its own terms -- but it has been.

I understand your belief that a movie like Crash (which I didn't like, but which has undeniably had a cultural impact) was only "preaching to the choir," but it seems short-sighted not to acknowledge that its choir, for all its tolerant leanings, still could have prejudices of its own. And maybe those were questioned after they saw the movie.

So, in a nutshell, are Ku Klux Klansmen rushing out to see either one of these movies? Probably not. But many of the people who do go, as progressive as they may think themselves to be, are finding their worldview expanded. Not such a bad thing.

Posted by: James Leer [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 04:29 PM

no ones going to see Munich because it looks boring. And I agree with the guy up above, cultural impact for a film cannot entirely be judged by box office. All the media attention to BBM and its issues makes it a cultural phenomenon. Perhaps only a small percentage of this cultural resonance will pay off at theaters. But it's being talked about and issues are being raised, u can't discout that. And based on what I've read (haven't seen the movie) you may not leave the movie with much more to think about than these articles.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 04:30 PM

also, I'd like to point out that it is odd that we're calling it BBM. Shouldn't it be BM? It's not Broke Back Mountain. Who decided at what point that BM is offensive? Are we that immature that everyone will associate BM with toilet humor?

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 04:32 PM

Heh, heh, heh! He said BM! Heh, heh, heh!

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 04:52 PM

BTW: Just curious, Dave -- what specific "niche" do you think "Glory Road" has been pitched to? Seriously.

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 05:30 PM

**************POSSIBLE SPOILER*****************


*****POSSIBLE SPOILER*******POSSIBLE SPOILER******


I don't see cultural impact of Crash or Brokeback Mountain. People who wanted to see them will see them. I saw them both. I think the cultural impact for gay men is big, becasue yes--there are themes that normally get ignored in the vast majority of movies--and it is the main story--unfulfilled lives of two men one of which at least is in love with the other. But cultural impact on everyone and all else? I would hardly say impressing critics means the USA is impressed as a movie-going public (maybe they should be but critic love doesn't translate directly to public love). Critics were impressed by American Splendor and how many Americans saw it?

I think Grand Canyon and Philadelphia provided for bigger milestones in similar respective categories as Crash and BM.

I also think Grand Canyon, and Philadelphia were better movies for causing some type of perturbations of the cultural pond. There were famed & or decent actors/actresses and bland actors/actresses in stories taking place in big cities in both white and blue color areas of many races and backgrounds in Both movies.

Many people were dying of AIDS in the early 90s too like my cousin, so Philadelphia had more urgency re. gay themes and "ignoring" gays as the public was doing then, bigtime. Many people were dying in drive bys and drug related murders in LA and other big cities in late 80s/1990 so Grand Canyon had more urgency than Crash has now.

I don;t think BM is a bad movie at all, it is a good movie, but I don;t see any cultural urgency that will make it an important piece in getting close-minded people any more likely to pay attention to their own bigotries. It is actually too bad and something to be sad about.

One thing it might do is get longtime closeted men or women in loveless heterosexual relationships to "come out" if they see themselves on that big screen.

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 07:19 PM

There are fallacies as to what constitutes a cultural phenomenon. One is that a film needs to be watched. It could merely be the cause of debate, which I think BM certainly has. But it didn't bring up the subject on its own and has certainly fed off of the gay marriage debate. But BM has taken on a life of its own and become a one-word talking point, like Sideways or Britney Spears.

Another fallacy is that the film needs to be loved by the mainstream. Again, not really necessary. It can preach to the choir, because often times the choir's tunes aren't sung very loudly (sorry for that extended analogy). A film can be loved by its core audience and become an example of the type of film they'd like to represent themselves to the larger world. Certain films hold this position in the African American, Latino, and Asian American communities. Or to professional communities. Why not for the homosexual one?

The third fallacy is that the film has to change people's minds. I don't think a film needs to change someone's ideas. If anything, a person's life has prepared them one way or another to enjoy or dislike a certain film. For example, I might not have drunk wine regularly before watching Sideways, but just because I do now doesn't mean that it was the sole factor even though it put it on my mind. I don't think people's hearts and minds stop on a dime after they see a movie, no matter how well made. Of course, examples of minds changing do exist and it could happen. But it could still be a phenom without it.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 08:06 PM

Crash clearly owes a lot to Grand Canyon (and to Short Cuts and Magnolia), but connected with the public on a greater level than any of those. (Grand Canyon did 33M, Magnolia 22.4M, and Short Cuts 6M, to Crash's 53M, plus massive media exposure).

More and more, it looks to me like a two-horse race for Best Picture between Crash and Brokeback. If Brokeback can get to 40M by ballot submission time, it'll almost certainly have a clear advantage, especially if the "massive success" angle keeps getting pumped.

Interestingly, Crash's production budget was about a third of Brokeback's, so even if they wind up at the same gross number, Crash is substantially more profitable (assuming no major gross-sharing deals). Indeed, Crash may wind up being the highest percentage returner of the year on theatrical grosses.

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 08:15 PM

Lota, you make some good points, but I don't see Grand Canyon having much of an impact. Maybe it did when it was released, but I don't think the years have been kind to it. Philadelphia seems rather antiquated as well, but at least it has to good lead performances and a really good director.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 08:37 PM

I think a movie like Brokeback Mountain can be called a cultural phenomenon or whatever because it has become to ingrained into a large amount of society. A lot of people know about "the gay cowboy movie". Went to tea last night with some friends, all of whom want to see it and one of my friends even said her dad was really interested in seeing it.

Just like Crash became a title everyone knew (in America moreso, it would seem). Just like Napoleon Dynamite - everyone's (or, everyone in the 15-25 age demo) heard of it. Everyone knows "Vote For Pedro". Even if they don't like it.

And as others have said, as the film expands and it wins Globes and Oscars (it will win SOMETHING we can take that to the bank) it will go on to outgross movies that Dave mentioned such as "Rent" and "The Ringer". Hell, BBM will outgross those two next weekend. Aren't those two just at $30mil? Where it's natural end point is we can't quite figure out right now. It could reach $50mil as the Oscars role around and keep going or it could petre out. Or, it could steamroll further and reach $100mil+. Who knows. I think it's silly for any of us (Dave Poland included) to predict where it will end.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 10:45 PM

I'm sorry, is it just me, or does anyone else understand why Mr. Poland keeps referring to those who champion BBM as being full of "bile" or "rage" (the blog post above this one). I've read almost every response on this blog over the last few months, and with a couple of exceptions, those who like BBM are usually well reasoned and fairly nice. In fact, my perceptions have been that those who don't like BBM are usually a bit more angry and bitter in their responses.

I'm also not sure why David is asking us to explain the obvious here, but here goes. Obviously, the big question around BBM has been will it cross over and play to mainstream auidences in heartland America. So far, the answer has been yes. BBM is now playing in many red states, and it still has the highest per screen average of any movie (including The Family Stone). Every week, it slowly expands to where people are saying it will never play, and every week more people see BBM at the theaters where it is playing than any other movie. This is the definition of crossover success.

This is the first weekend BBM has shown at more than 500 sites (680 this weekend). After this weekend, the movie will have earned close to 33 million before it opens wide. The Family Stone is near the end of its short run. BBM has just started its long run (Oscar nominated films usually run into April and Oscar Best Pic winners run even longer--assuming BBM will be nominated and assuming it has some small chance of winning). Let's talk in May about which film has the better box office, national exposure, and place in film and cultural history. Is there ANYONE here who will place their bets on The Family Stone?

You know, I don't hear any Leno or Letterman jokes about The Family Stone. I don't see any critic's awards for it. I don't hear any major awards buzz about the movie. I don't see daily articles about it in major newspapers and all over the web. I don't hear from its legions of fans. I don't think it has been pulled from any theaters. I haven't heard any water cooler discussions about the importance of the movie. I don't see the Hot Blog continuing to mention The Family Stone in almost every post. I've seen all of the above for BBM. So, which is supossed to be the phenomenom? Go figure.

Now we all know David asked us to post our thoughts on this subject to this thread. So, here we are. Polite. Well mannered. Not frothing at the mouth. No bile or rage. Bully on us, eh?

Posted by: peteinportland [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 10:47 PM

The niche for Glory Road is "all audiences."

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 10:56 PM

Carrey expected a lot more from his movie. A LOT.

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2006 11:25 PM

I think Glory Road as a sports film will do significantly better with men than with women. I don't remember any strong female character from the trailer. The Bruckheimer brand enforces the male cachet as well. Timing is not bad as business could possibly pick up a little when March Madness hits. Again, a male demo. But having said that, it looks like a decent film that could do well with most audiences if they gave it a try.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:31 AM

Matt M if Grand Canyon did 33M then it did do better than Crash (calculate prod cost and P&A). It also was a good deal more natural re. acting and themes. The music dates it a bit, but it is an accurate time capsule.

I still don't see any cultural impact of BM, even though it would be nice if it would do so, if for no other reason to get people to live more honestly.

Glory Road. God Josh Lucas has no charisma...and him cast as a motivational coach? The only surprising performance I have ever seen him give was in Session 9. Players = pretty good & the coach is a pickle. Those who love the NCAA games (I do) will watch it, but it is a tad boring due to JL being the star.

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:53 AM

josh lucas was perhaps one of bruckheimer's worst $$ decisions. A legit, known actor could have brought true success to that film. Now it will have trouble making $50 mill. (which profit-wise might be OK, but not great)

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 08:24 AM

"The Chronic-What-Cles of Narnia". I didn't know DP was illin'!

When the DVD drops maybe we can all head to his pad with a box of blunts and see this flick all toked up.

As to why "Brokeback Mountain" has gone semi-wide? Focus Features wants to pre-empt any further attack on the movie by religious zealots and pro-censorship groups. The Utah theater's ban on "Brokeback" made the AP wire.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:14 AM

Lucas wasn't the first choice. Affleck was all set to star before dropping out.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:16 AM

"Do you really believe a single gay-bashing right-winger is going to BBM and seeing the light?"

Dave P,

Sir, this comment is beneath you. It is something that Jeff Wells would write.

Do you really believe all right-wingers are gay bashers?

Are you inferring that all conservatives want to 'bash' and hence cause physical, pain and harm to gays?

Do you really beleive that someone's 'enlightenment' is defined by whether or not they see BBM, a film which the overwhelming majority of left-wingers have yet to see?

I do not think you agree with any of these statments, which is why I read you. I do think you are feeling heat over your own very moderate and rational critique of BBM and are trying to go to the other extreme to prove you are not a 'rightie'.

I just say, have faith in your own views, man. Anyone who would attack you over not liking BBM is not worth your time.

Again, that comment was beneath you.

Best.

Posted by: Nicol D [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:17 AM

The Left doesn't have gay bashers???

I forgot they're all perfect and loving and nice and peaceful and fantastic. Give me a break already.

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:40 AM

Seems like a lot of people here can spin BBM into a monster hit.

Posted by: PandaBear [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 11:06 AM

My 78 year old dad went to see “Brokeback Mountain” last week all on his own: his first "gay film" ever, unless you count "Mountains of the Moon" or "Cabaret". That, to me, means something. I think it makes him understand me more as a gay person, and for that, I'm greatful.

I also see it as having another kind of indirect impact. A friend who saw it on Friday, at a sold out show in a 300 seat auditorium, said most of the audience was made up of women, many younger women. I would think that the film might cause them to challenge their boyfriends when they hear them making homophobic statements in their company, which might cause those guys to realize that it isn't making them seem more "manly," rather it makes them seem more insecure and thus less "manly" to talk like that. Therefore, if those guys want to "be popular with the girls" they'd better stop acting like such jerks about gays—just a conjecture.

And what was valuable to me about “Crash” was that it showed some understanding of how and why people can harbor racist attitudes (Matt Dillon and his father's story), and it shows how much un-exorcized racism still exists among the "good liberals" (Sandra Bullock's character). That's something that even the "choir" can learn from. It made me think about those things.
.

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 11:11 AM

i think when people go to see ""Oscar movies" they expect a little boredom and will oftentimes put on their thinking caps. Oscar movies that are too entertaining may actually turn off some viewers. So Ang Lee's BM may well continue to get good word of mouth. Michael Bay's BM, even if it got good reviews, and was perhaps more entertaining, would have turned off the pretentious viewers that are into this pap. Although personally I'd love to see Jack and Ennis do it with bombs exploding outside there tent.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 11:25 AM

I really don't understand why you keep makeing such silly statements Mr.Poland. I think your smarter than that.

The movies you listed are in more THEATERS! Which means more OPPORTUNITY to be seen! Besides the movies you listed are on there way out, while BBM is opening in more theaters. Let's see what the final gross is before we compare.

"phenomenon: an observable fact or event."

"culture: the customary beliefs, social forms, and material traits of a racial, religious, or social group.

Your question again? I think BBM has done just that no matter how you look at it. It's definitely made an impact on you.

I find it amusing that you spend so much of your time defaming BBM.

I feel no matter what happens at the Oscars BBM and Munich are both outstanding movies in there own right. I know that doesn't make for an interesting blog, but there it is.

Posted by: Tcolors [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 12:28 PM

i think part of the problem with these discussions is that everyone these days feels like they need to back up their opinions with "facts", like box office, awards, etc. Ultimately, it comes down to did u like the movie, why did you like it, etc. But those conversations are apparetnly too dull for watercooler discourse, so the level of filmic conversation is on a very simplistic level.

BM may make a ton of money, it may not. May win awards, may not. But it really annoys me that everyone feels like the quality of it will be determined by the marketplace. Not true. The best movies of 2006 will be known 5 yrs from now. All this other stuff is just BS.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 01:02 PM

Do you think we'd agree on the best movie from five years back, 2000? I doubt it.

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 01:49 PM

The only impact BBM will have is if it wins the Oscar because its not going to make much of an impact at the box office.

Posted by: joefitz84 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 02:20 PM

"The best movies of 2006 will be known 5 yrs from now. All this other stuff is just BS."

An excellent statement. Most people do not even remeber what Oscar winners were a year ago. Time is the true test of greatness for art.

Posted by: Nicol D [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 02:22 PM

That should be the Family Stone's new ad campaign. "Twice as many like us than Brokeback Mountain and we have gays in our movie too"

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 02:25 PM

I hate to rub it in, but predictions that Hostel would have a record-setting drop turned out to be wrong. It seems to have fallen as much as any other similar horror movie, showing that people aren't totally bored and repelled by it.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 02:58 PM

Hostel dropped 60%. What were you looking for? A drop of 80% for a number one movie? That just doesn't happen. 60 is a huge drop.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:02 PM

Is Eli Roth the next Polanski?

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:03 PM

If you mean is he going to drug and rape 13 yr old girls and then chicken out and flee to France? I'd say hopefully not.

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:04 PM

60% is a very normal drop for a youth-oriented horror movie. Dave was indeed expecting an 80% drop or more. Look up some statistics if you don't believe me.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:17 PM

There have been a few 70%+ drops here and there. Don't off-hand remember an 80% drop, though.

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:25 PM

80% is very exceptional. But Dave Poland said he was expecting a 'near-record' drop for the movie.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:30 PM

I wonder what the record is for a second week, wide release drop: How much and what film....

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:34 PM

Boxofficemojo lists Undiscovered as having an 86% drop but it was only in 754 theaters. But in 2215 theaters, with an 82% drop...Gigli.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:38 PM

Since 1982, four films ("Undiscovered," "Gigli," "Bad Moon," and "Return to the Blue Lagoon" have dropped 80+% in weekend 2. 34 more have dropped 70% or more. The record is "Undiscovered" last year with an 86.4% weekend-to-weekend drop.

"Hostel" looks like about 50% drop, which doesn't even place it in the top 200 droppers of all time.

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 03:39 PM

You don't want to be in the "Gigli" category in anything.

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:26 PM

Some people can't wait more than a few minutes to take a shot at Dave Poland huh? Wipe the foam from your mouth jeffmcm.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:34 PM

With all the talk of how successful BBM is it is good to get perspective on it and realize it trails movies like The Ringer, Family Stone, and Rent.

Now will it open nationally wide yet or is it chicken?

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:38 PM

Actually, the story of this weekend could well be "Hoodwinked." That was a MONSTER Friday-Saturday jump, which was just smart releasing--a holiday weekend with nothing animated in the marketplace.

Also, "Last Holiday" had a substantial Fri-Sat jump, which strikes me as a bit odd.

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:47 PM

Rufus, I waited all weekend to point out Hostel's normal boxoffice drop. I have a lot of respect for Dave Poland, which you obviously don't for me.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:51 PM

Who are the people who pay to see Hostel on opening weekend?

Posted by: LesterFreed [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 04:58 PM

You need a kleenex, jeffmcm? Some here just can't wait to get in a few digs at Dave Poland. Your comment struck me as just that.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:00 PM

The bigger quandary is who are the people who supported Tristan & Isolde???

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:04 PM

Lester, I don't know what you define as a 'dig'. I consider that what I wrote was merely to politely point out a prediction that turned out to be incorrect.
I would say that 'wipe the foam off your mouth' is a much more aggressive, impolite, and pointless 'dig'. If you're interested in discussing box-office declines, so be it. But I think you just enjoy tossing mud.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:06 PM

Now I've heard it all. Jeff complaining about something. What has the world come to????

I picture Jeff with a large amount of foam usually before dinner. He needs his food.

Posted by: Sanchez [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:08 PM

If I said that to you Jeff I would take full credit but it wasn't me. So get your facts straight before you go accusing people of saying things. Now that is what I call low f-ing class.

Posted by: LesterFreed [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:10 PM

Sanchez, do you want to discuss movies or do you just follow me around and name-call?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:10 PM

What name did I call you? You are "Jeff" aren't you? The only time you talk about movies is to take shots at people and argue. I enjoy your game. I find it funny.

Posted by: Sanchez [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:12 PM

Jeff causing trouble and starting fights with people that didn't even do anything. Shocker!!!

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:13 PM

Keep laughing.

Lester, sorry. I confused you with Rufus. I have no possible idea how that could have happened except that you seem to agree on everything and are often on the blog at the exact same time.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:14 PM

Josh, I have never STARTED a fight on this blog.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:21 PM

Yes. I have now heard EVEYTHING.

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:31 PM

What do they say?

Death, taxes, and jeffmcm arguing and moaning.

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:32 PM

Fine. You guys are entitled to your perceptions. Enjoy.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:33 PM

How odd that Rufus and Lester both disappeared at the same time. I must have separately and uniquely pissed both of them off.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 05:47 PM

And you're upset... Why? =)

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:08 PM

Who disappeared? Did I die or something because I don't feel the need to engage in petty arguments like you obviously do? You're a lowlife.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:09 PM

Typical Jeffrey. Just typical. A leopard can't change its spots.

Glory Road was a pretty good flick. Should continue to do well.

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:11 PM

I'd say Jeff gets off on it but I wouldn't want to get him excited or anything.

Posted by: joefitz84 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:13 PM

Cut it out guys. Let's focus on real problems here. A NASA probe arrived back on earth today with comet dust. And nobody (NOBODY!) has talked about the killer zombies on their way.

Seriously... how can Poland say that Fun With Dick & Jane is doing badly. That was a tank if I ever saw one. $100 mil there is amazing.

Posted by: Crow T Robot [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:15 PM

He's a good guy, right? And he waited all weekend to tell Dave he was wrong about Hostels 50% drop. And he doesn't want to be accused of taking low digs at people. Sure thing.

Posted by: Rufus Masters [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:16 PM

I didn't think Dick and Jane would make 50 let alone 100. I thought huge bomb there.

Posted by: Sanchez [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:17 PM

Rufus, everything you said there is correct.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:20 PM

Except the 50% thing, don't know where you got that.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:25 PM

The Jan box office. Such dreck and uggh type movies. Doesn't get better til March hits. I always wonder why they use this period as a dumping period. It's like giving up. You should never do that in business.

Posted by: PandaBear [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:39 PM

You're not excited at the prospect of movies like Underworld and Big Momma's House 2??

Posted by: LesterFreed [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 06:50 PM

Martin Lawrence. I thought he was going to evolve. And now he's doing Big Momma's House 2. Poor guy.

Posted by: Josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 07:23 PM

Hostel dropped 60%. Saying 50 is just flat out wrong.

Posted by: Angelus21 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 07:40 PM

January and February is a notorious dumping time for movies. They just hope to make a quick buck and get out. Like Hostel. Like Freedomland hopes to do. There are no real movie holiday weekends. Football is in playoff season. Schools are back in session. Tough to release wannabe blockbusters in that time.

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 08:59 PM

WHo likes Tristan and Iseult/Isolde? The GOTHS. They seem to like it real lot in my city.

I saw a Japanese movie premiere tonight and only 8 people were there. Too bad. was good.

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 09:19 PM

They should have made that Japanese movie about homosexuals than you would have had a soldout theatre and fan sites dedicated to it and 500 people here defending and calling it a success and people that would attack the jugular if you said different.

Posted by: Bruce [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:05 PM

LOL.

Posted by: PandaBear [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:13 PM

"Now will it open nationally wide yet or is it chicken?" - I don't remember anyone saying Sideways was chicken for staying in limited release for three months! You just want it to open wide so you can feel justified in slamming the bloody movie.

I personally love it that people are making jokes that any movie with gay characters is now guaranteed box office like Brokeback. Please, give us SOME credit. It's not like movies such as "All Over The Guy" or "Trick" were box office successes. They were bad movies. Brokeback just happens to be a great movie. What's so bad about a movie that critics like, audiences like (for the most part, respectively) making money.

People are constantly complaining that shit movies make money and great ones get left in the dust - well here is a movie that a lot of people would describe as an arthouse indie, but it's making money. What's wrong with that? God, it's pathetic - REALLY PATHETIC.

It's really bad seeing perfectly intelligent sounding people actually wanting movies such as Brokeback to fail. As lovers of film I would've thought we'd all want it to succeed, if for no other reason than it will tell some studios that they CAN make different movies and people will still see them if they're good.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2006 10:43 PM

how is brokeback an arthouse indie with two a list stars and an a list director?

Posted by: bicycle bob [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 16, 2006 05:59 AM

Glory Road was well made. I liked it. Just a decent little film. Nothing too special. But I'm a sucker for sport movies of any kind especially basketball.

Posted by: Terence D [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 16, 2006 06:05 AM

Bob, because it's a low-budget movie distributed by the arthouse arm of a studio from an arthouse director about gay cowboys. Ang Lee has made one non-indie movie and it was a flop. Granted. there is some fluidity between arthouse and mainstream. But your question seems pretty obvious.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 16, 2006 09:41 AM

"Now will it open nationally wide yet or is it chicken?"

"Brokeback" has gone wider faster than "Million Dollar Baby." Course it's a better movie.

Posted by: DannyBoy [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 16, 2006 11:01 AM

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