« Ring? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Ring! | Main | More Trouble For Traditional Media »
March 25, 2006
Klady's Friday Estimates - 3/25/06
Okay... get this... the Friday estimate for Spike Lee’s Inside Man is more than any of his openings over an entire weekend, except Malcolm X ($9.87m) and The Original Kings of Comedy ($11.1m). Of course, this time he has real crossover with a story that doesn’t appear to be themed around being black, co-stars Jodie Foster and Clive Owens, and still, Denzel in the kind of role people always seem to want to see. By the end of its first weekend, Inside Man will probably be Spike’s fourth highest grossing film of his 17 film career. A win for everyone.
This looks to be the best ever opening for Denzel, even though he has had major co-stars before in films like The Pelican Brief, Philadelphia (which did open exclusive, but never had a weekend over $14 million), and in films with Gene Hackman, Whitney Houston (in her The Bodyguard follow-up), Meg Ryan (still unlip-puffed), young Angelina Jolie and Bruce Willis.
Stay Alive, Disney’s first real hard core sell of a horror film (they learned that Dark Water lesson), could get to $13 million if it peaks up on Saturday. Not terrible. ($4m more than Dark Water... and cheaper in both production and ads.)
V for Vendetta had a not-shocking, but not upticking Friday. We’ll see if Saturday jumps the way it did last weekend for this one. But $100 million seems well out of reach and the film was clearly outmuscled by Inside Man.
Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector will do minimally better than Waiting..., a title that didn’t have the media bump that Larry gets with his various outlets. Not bad. Not good. Disney had the Ernest franchise consistently delivering in the mid-20s over a decade ago. Perhaps Lions Gate needs Larry to be a bit more family friendly to match that kind of success.
Eight Below cracks $75 million. Impressive.
Title / Distributor / Gross* / Theaters / % Change / Cume
Inside Man / Uni / 9.8 / 2818 / New / 9.8
Stay Alive / BV / 4.1 / 2009 / New / 4.1
V for Vendetta / WB / 4 / 3365 / -54% / 37.9
Failure to Launch / Par / 3.6 / 3202 / -23% / 56.7
She's the Man / Par / 2.3 / 2631 / -37% / 15.4
Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector / Lions Gate / 2.2 / 1710 / New /
The Shaggy Dog / BV / 2.2 / 3421 / -36% / 41
The Hills Have Eyes / Fox Searchlight / 1.3 / 2461 / -42% / 32.7
Eight Below / BV / 0.75 / 2101 / -35% / 75.1
16 Blocks / WB / 0.65 / 2066 / -51% / 32.5
Posted by poland at March 25, 2006 11:08 AM
Comments
I'm assuming those dogs must have more personality than Paul Walker (because they'd have to).
I don't expect V for Vendetta to uptick much...seems like it'll top out around $60?
And as David Spade said, shouldn't they have called it "Larry the Health Inspector"?
Posted by: jeffmcm ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 25, 2006 01:06 PM
Pretty much a given that Inside Man was going to open higher than Vendetta. Vendetta hopefully upticks to a 40-something% drop. $70 million is the likely landing point here.
I'm actually on the team that thinks Disney didn't expose Eight Below enough. Like any Miyazaki movie, it just could've found even more of an audience but Disney doesn't take the bait.
The question now is if Vendetta or Stay Alive will be #2. I'm siding with Vendetta because of last week's Saturday rise, Horror movies going all over the place on Saturday's, and personal bias. Hehehehe.
Posted by: Tofu at March 25, 2006 01:23 PM
Mr. Poland,
Which'll be remembered in a decade, Vendetta or Brokeback? Thought I'd just stir up some debate.
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent at March 25, 2006 04:25 PM
Oh, no. Can't they both be?
There's plenty of other debate in the thread "The First Gay Superhero Movie," Jimmy. Sink your teeth into it.
Posted by: James Leer at March 25, 2006 04:45 PM
agreed, 8 Below did a lot of money with very little advertising support outside the core demo. That was $125-150 money maker that they took the quick and cheap approach with. THe film never had much buzz and still made a ton of cash.
Posted by: martin at March 25, 2006 04:49 PM
probably neither, the public seems to be over the love affair with Brokeback and Vendetta just hasn't caught on outside the trades.
Posted by: martin at March 25, 2006 04:50 PM
(sigh)
What makes you say the public seems to be over Brokeback? Just because it's not in the headlines anymore?
Posted by: jeffmcm at March 25, 2006 04:57 PM
i think the ugly oscar loss confirmed what a lot of the public thought about brokeback - that it was overrated. Between the two though, I'd say Brokeback has a better shot at being remembered in 10 yrs. "Gay cowboy movie" is going to be harder to get out of public conciousness than "fey anarchy flick".
Posted by: martin at March 25, 2006 05:47 PM
And what is your source for your notion that the public thought it was overrated? It's in the top 250 on IMDB (granted, just barely, but still).
Posted by: jeffmcm at March 25, 2006 05:59 PM
Go Spike!
Posted by: Crow T Robot at March 25, 2006 07:04 PM
Yeesh, I didn't realize that Malcolm X was his highest-grossing movie ever, with $48m...Inside Man will easily pass that after next weekend or so.
Posted by: jeffmcm at March 25, 2006 07:23 PM
R.I.P. Richard Fleischer at age 89. I know he'll likely be remembered best for "20,000 Leagues Under the Sea" and "Fantastic Voyage," but I must admit that "The Last Run" will always have a more important place in my heart. If you've ever seen it, you'll know what I mean. Especially when George C. Scott tells Trish Van Devere, after she tells him she won't run off with him: "Well, I never really thought you were going to..."
Posted by: Joe Leydon at March 25, 2006 10:08 PM
Clive Owen is plural now?
Posted by: Sam at March 26, 2006 07:40 AM
wow. nice one, Spike.
Posted by: Lota at March 26, 2006 01:49 PM
Yeah, that movie totally worked and was also a continuation of Spike's cultural explorations. Hope he does more great stuff now that he has some more box office validity.
Posted by: palmtree at March 26, 2006 11:51 PM
I agree. Inside Man is genetically as much of a Spike Lee film as Do The Right Thing, and even when character motivations fly off the tracks, there's never an uninteresting moment in the film. The whole way through I got the sense my theater's intelligence levels were being met and challenged.
When his indulgences are put in check, Lee can work wonders.
Posted by: Crow T Robot at March 27, 2006 12:48 AM
How many people, though, do you think saw "Directed by Spike Lee" in the opening credits and were surprised? The ads ran like hell from promoting the fact Lee was behind it.
Posted by: Josh Massey at March 27, 2006 02:57 PM
A brilliant move on their part. Does anyone really think it would've opened to 29 mill with Spike's name plastered all over the ads? (And props to Spike for recognizing that fact and agreeing to it.)
Posted by: Cadavra at March 29, 2006 10:31 AM
The fact that Denzel and Jodie were in it practically sealed it's fate no matter who directed it. Add in Clive Owen and, yes, Spike Lee and you got success. Seriously, I love that Jodie Foster is still one of the movie-worlds most consisted draws.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at March 31, 2006 12:27 AM
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)