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May 31, 2006

Deconstructing New Mythology

Studios drop big hints if a film is a potential bomb
Updated 5/30/2006 10:11 PM ET
By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY

LOS ANGELES — The ads say it's the "must-see film of the year!"
Critics say it's a dog.
Whom do you believe?

DP – Well, to start with, in all but the rarest cases, ad pull quotes are from people that are considered critics. Peter Travers is more likely to be used than any other major outlet critic to prop up a movie that others hate… but don’t count two thumbs out when others are using them to hitchhike.

Amid Hollywood hype, Internet marketing and the tastes of film reviewers, the truth is out there.

DP – Uh, there is no truth, except in the rarest of occasions. The truth is, some people like what other people think is brown and runny.

Experts say that the way a film is marketed and sold can indicate not only what a studio really thinks about its fare, but also whether the movie is stellar or a stinker.
"There's body language" to every movie, says Senh Duong, founder of rottentomatoes.com, which culls the reviews of film critics nationwide.
"If a movie gets screened (for critics), if a star will talk, if there are sneak previews, they all tell you something about the movie," Duong says. "There are things to look for."

DP – I love Senh and all… great guy… useful site… but real sneak previews are rare and nowadays are a sign of desperation. 90% of movies still screen for critics and 75% of them still stink. Very few stars refuse to talk, as 95% are contractually obligated and will threaten future jobs if they do not. Think of any dud you can and you are likely to find a load of stories about how great the actors were at the junket.

Here, then, are a few clues that critics, studio executives and analysts say to look for when considering a movie:
•Was it screened for critics? If it isn't, the movie is usually a dud.
Most films that aren't screened for critics are horror flicks and goofball comedies — movies like Silent Hill and The Benchwarmers that are geared for teenagers who don't pay attention to reviews.
The movie "is probably bad, and it probably doesn't matter," says Duong. "Horror movies are usually cheap, and they can easily take in $20 million on their opening weekend. Why risk getting the bad press if the fans are going to come out, anyway?"

DP – Wrong! Of course, we are talking genre here. And most movies that don’t screen are genre. And most of those are not made for middle-aged critics and most middle-aged critics are not forgiving of them, as I think they should not be. But “probably bad” is not even the issue anymore. I can tell you that Sony decisionmakers liked The Benchwarmers. They also knew that critics would piss all over anything with Rob Schneider and David Spade. So why go there? Still, the $19.7 million opening was not easy and not unearned. Kids wanted to see this silly movie and they did… and they kept coming back in weeks to come to the tune of $57.7 million to date.

Critics liked Eight Below… and guess what? Almost the same multiple as The Pink Panther, which was not screened.

Senh is correct that there is no reason to risk bad press. He is dead wrong that it is easy to take in $20 million on opening weekend. Scott had it right at the top… these are movies for people who don’t read reviews, so why bother courting reviewers?

•When is the movie being released? The dead of winter and late summer and early fall are traditionally considered dumping grounds for bad films.

DP – This is no longer true. Hitch opened last year on February 11 and did $179 million domestic. 40 Year Old Virgin opened August 19 and did $109 million. Are We There Yet, Constantine, Coach Carter, Red Eye… all “off-season” hits. Open space is valuable now and studios are being more aggressive in a tougher market.

But the specific weekend of release can be telling, too. Unless a movie is beaten to the scheduling punch by another major release, a film that has the confidence of the studio typically opens the weekend before the holiday, not the holiday weekend itself.
"If you've got the goods, and the schedule allows it, you want to open the weekend before the holiday to get kids talking," says Don Harris, an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures. "That way, when schools let out, word-of-mouth has given you the must-see film of the holiday."

DP – True, but a mark of positivity, not negativity. And this is a change in recent years. Until Star Wars, four summers ago, it was all about Memorial Day weekend. Now it’s about the weekend before. And as Scott says, the position of other movies is more important than anything other than the movie you have to sell.

•Is the star talking? Actors who don't support their films usually know something you don't.
"Actors work long and hard on their movies, and they know that doing press for them is part of the job," Duong says. "If they aren't talking, they probably don't believe in it, and the movie is a stinker."

DP – Rarely happens. And sometimes, it happens for odd reasons. Scott Bowles himself didn’t get the facetime with Tom Hanks he was expecting on The Da Vinci Code train. But it had nothing to do with the quality of the movie. Others are truly press shy. And for a moment, the press conference style junket was a horrible signal… but now, it’s become ubiquitous.

When a big name doesn’t work, it is usually because of a conflict with another film that the star is in that is opening nearby. And they leverage the threat not to work to get dates changed, regardless of who it hurts.

•Is the movie getting "sneak peeks"? If studios offer early screenings for the public, they believe it will be a hit with audiences, if not critics.
Sony Pictures, for instance, offered "word-of-mouth" screenings at shopping malls in Arizona, Oklahoma and Nebraska for the Robin Williams comedy RV. Madea's Family Reunion offered screenings to church groups nationwide.

DP – Almost every single film does “word of mouth” screenings and radio promotion screenings. In fact, in smaller markets, those screenings are where critics tend to see the movie, unfortunately. As I wrote before, true sneaks tend to be about a failure to get the film any buzz in traditional marketing these days. (And of course, all of this is about wide release studio films… different roles for indies and dependents.)

Despite poor reviews — only about a quarter of critics liked them — both were hits. The $6 million Reunion took in $63 million, while RV has done $57 million and saw ticket sales increase this weekend after five weeks in theaters.
"I'm not sure what the critics see that the audiences don't," says Rory Bruer, Sony's distribution chief. "But ultimately, the audience is the final critic."

DP – It’s not quite that complex, which of course, Mr. Bruer can not say out loud. Critics are white and urbane (or at least we think we are) and movies for black, churchy audiences will never be well reviewed. Nor will mediocre family comedies. Exceptional family comedies with strong audience appeal will be, like Click, opened mid-season and be considered critic-proof.

But check this out… the highest Tomato-metered Adam Sandler movie of all time (with the exception of the PT Anderson pretentious critics wet dream and audience nightmare, Punch-Drunk Love) is Wedding Singer… at 56%. This is a film that is well remembered and currently, the Broadway musical from it is Tony nominated. 56%. Expect Click to rise to 60% - still a rotten tomato – and to do close to $200 million at the box office without the film being “hidden” from anyone.

There are a lot more movies that have done everything that Scott says you need to not to be suspect and are still poorly reviewed.

And how about this? Of films currently in cinemas, 20 are rated at over 80% on RT. A total of 4 have grossed more than $2 million in cinemas.

Oh those evil marketing people!!!

Posted by poland at May 31, 2006 05:59 PM

Comments

I don't understand your overall point...is it 'nobody knows anything'? I especially don't understand your final exclamation.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 07:08 PM

I think this is in keeping with David's view that "it's all about the movie(s), stupid." That is, in the end marketing will only do so much for a movie, and the rest is up to the movie itself. Although I get the impression that Bowles --or David thinks Bowles is doing this--both overstates and understates the effect of marketing.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 07:19 PM

I don't know, it feels to me that marketing is all that matters anymore. You can pretty much buy a big opening weekend if you have a presold concept, star, and big enough marketing budget for your movie. Like Click, as he says: it'll make a ton of money, but probably won't be very good.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 07:24 PM

You can't buy any opening you want... look at all the movies that don't do it, no matter how much they spend.

Click is a movie that regular people will really like. Period. Good and bad is opinion. If you like spinach, it's good. If you don't, it's bad.

And the points are laid out along the way... details, not a theme.

The bottom line is, people want to believe there is a chemistry to all of this. But there isn't. Bad movies aren't from carelessness. Good movies aren't always from the smartest, most talented people.

What we do know is that 90% of the films released by studios will be bad movies by the standards of most critics. And 50% will be bad by the standards of most audiences.

But you can have a $100 million gross based on a narrow swath of people who genuinely like what you hate. And as we saw in the last 10 days, over 50 million people went to go see The Da Vinci Code, no matter what "we" said. And no doubt, at least 20% LOVED it.

What can ya do?

My sense is that Bowles and many others are trying to quantify the current sense of critics being irrelevant so that it can be dealt with reasonably. But my bigger point is that in niche world, all things have their place.

What is there to suggest that studios should offer movies they expect to be smacked to critics? Tradition. What suggests that studios should let all outlets have early access to every movie? Tradition.

And what is the future of criticism? Why should studios respect us if our outlets and editors do not?

What keeps it from being a complete free for all? Studios still want feature stories from majors. And if they want to keep the NYT happy, they won't hide a lot more movies. And if they let the NYT see it, it only makes sense to let others see it to, theoretically, counterbalance Manohla's pan.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 08:28 PM

Fine, but what's the bigger picture? When I watched The Da Vinci Code, was I supposed to be placated by thoughts of "well, plenty of other people like it so I guess it's okay if it sucks"? Are we just supposed to roll over and let mediocrity prosper? Your (DP) attitude is laissez-faire almost to the point of nihilism, it seems.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 08:32 PM

Poland are you saying that Click is an exceptional family comedy with strong audience appeal? Pretty strong statement, if so.

Bowles' piece is pretty shoddy, IMO, and does nothing more than add to the recent spate of articles about the slump, how bad movies are and how awful the theatrical experience has become. As I've mentioned before, what NATO needs to do is start a campaign to remind people how great and fun it is to go to the movies. And negative stories like Bowles', which do nothing but play up Hollywood's woes without offering anything interesting and new, need to stop.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 08:57 PM

Oy.

Business is business. Art is art. They don't mix in any logical way.

Get it?

You know full well that I have strong a pronounced opinions abount movies. But you (nor anyone else reading me) are not my bitch. You get to have an opinion. I get to agree or disagree.

And if you are so respectful of the opinions of good and bad, what the fuck were you doing at DVC? Are you a masochist?

Or do you just want everything in the world to be in black and white? Because if you do, I don't see how you can stand reading me for even one day, much less every day.

I don't mean to be insulting, but I don't get what you want.

"Roll over and let mediocrity propser?" What are you, the Aesthetically Correct Policeman? Do you have a big "A" on front of your uniform? Are you going to start killing bad directors in the style of their worst films?

Medicority has ALWAYS prospered. Most people are in the middle. Middle = mediocre. If you can't life with it, you can't live.

Even the smallest studio crap costs more than $50 million to put out. That is not art. That is business. And if we expect that $50 million - $400 million to be about pleasing the best expectations of every film, than we are idiots. If we can get a handful of wins a year, we should be thrilled. And the truth is, the small percentage of the public that cares barely supports those few great films that get squeezed past the sell-it-wide police. So we in media should probably focus of getting people to the films they resist but shouldn't. But with due love to Manohla, she is busy comparing V For Vendetta to Claire Denis and insulting anyone who might like V.... that's not helpful. I respect that she would prefer that people skip V AND Pink Panther, but if there is a choice,it is between them and Claire Denis is not involved....

To me, being angry about The Benchwarmers on any level is an idiotic waste of energy. And frankly, if you or anyone else is such an enemy of mediocrity and want to take up the cudgel, find something more important to fight... like network news!

You can't win by fighting against mediocrity. You can only win - and in small ways - by fighting for something you believe in. How about more space in the New Times/Village Voice papers for smaller movies? (Am I crazy or did they really pay for 3 people to go to Cannes?)

If USA Today really wants to help, push The Propositon or B13. Stop going to junkets. Run features with more serious discussions of the form.

Personally, I see as many films as I always have, but I as simply skpping more and more crap and investing in seeing more docs and world cinema. There is no joy for me in ripping junk. And if I am to have any effect, it will be as an advocate of quality films that you may not see at your multiplex. So when people bitch about my festival coverage, I appreciate that they are bored... and I simply move on, doing work that can actually have an effect.

If I went back to the traditional, all I would be is another fucking whiner, forever complaining about how great the good old days were and being only as meaningful to movies as the outlet that employs me. I am the farthest thing from laissez-faire. I put my shit on the table and work it as best I can.

But again, please tell me what you really want, J Mc?

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:05 PM

When critics approach a Sandler movie or some such film, there is little sense that they even respect what is being shown. What I admire about someone like Pauline Kael is that she gleans interesting things from movies that are not meant to be great, meanwhile trashing movies that are sanctimonious. The reviewer should be figuring out what an audience will or should notice in movie, not premeditated opinions.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:07 PM

I am saying Click will be a winnner, Wreck. Premise is a winner. Sandler is a winner.

And I don't know whether I will find it joyous or irritating. I do know it's not Little Nicky. Whether it's 50 First Dates (good and popular with women) or Big Daddy (not good and still poplular across the board), I don't know.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:09 PM

More than ever, Palm, I believe there is room for every kind of critic, as there is for every kind of movie.

The tyranny of the local paper is over. Audiences need to take responsibility to find the people that speak well to them. But with a little effort, it can be done. If your taste is Jon Rosenbaum, go for it. Jeffrey Lyons... I hate you... but go for it.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:11 PM

Wow, you're angry these days, DP.
I just don't see the point of this commentary. It's a fairly harmless, uninteresting guide to tell people how to spot stinkers, that you felt the need to deconstruct. But why? What message are you trying to send? All I can get is 'there is no truth'.

How does this commentary make the world a better place? I know that sounds hopelessly naive and idealistic, but is there an answer?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:22 PM

Not angry, J Mc... just not in the mood for negative, unfocused bullshit.

Sorry you don't get it. Guess not everyone is meant to get everything I write. Life goes on.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:30 PM

Well, I don't see how Bowles was negative. But thanks for trying.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:32 PM

Although to be truly honest: if you can't explain why a piece of writing is good for people, it begs the question of why write it at all.
I'd love it if someone else was willing to explain it to me, in short, one-syllable words if necessary.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 09:34 PM

Jeff, it is good because it is the way it works. I gather you read Mr. P to find out how this business operates from the inside, because aside from his reviews, content here is mainly movie marketing, movie distribution patterns, shortening windows, executive musical chairs, etc. It's not real cinephile stuff...it's much more realkinema. Judging something without understanding it is far more naive. That is Mr. Poland's message.

Btw, Rosenbaum is one of my favorite critics...but it's precisely his ability to treat "crap" with respect. I mean, the guy put Small Soldiers in his top ten of that year and compares it favorably against Saving Private Ryan.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 10:36 PM

Rosenbaum views movies through a particular set of political filters, which is great in some cases (like appreciating Small Soldiers) but very predictable in other cases (like calling The World the best film of last year).

You're right, Palmtree, that DP's approach is very business-oriented. My complaint, which I know he disagrees with, is that I've been reading him for seven years now and over that time he's gradually spent more and more time covering box-office and business and less and less time writing reviews and discussing movies themselves. And I am finally finding that boring enough that I'll probably move on. Life's too short.

(By the war, just because something is 'the way it works' is never justification for calling it 'good'. Quite the opposite, most of the time.)

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 10:48 PM

'the way it works' is never justification for calling it 'good'

Personally, I come here for the business stuff. It's detailed, it's opinionated, and it's relatively user friendly.

Your typo "war" is apropo...filmmaking is a battle between artists and commerce, but just because history writes about great artists doesn't mean that they can do it alone.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 11:17 PM

Spielberg does okay doing both, and I am not opposed to 'commerce' per se. It just seems like there is no sense of communal support in Poland's attitude any more...crap will come and audiences will take it and there's nothing to be done about it. More and more often, DP's pieces are less about helping ordinary people avoid bad stuff (why bother if they're going to lap it up anyway?) and more and more about him proving himself to be smarter and mre savvy than other writers out there.

(DP, please spare me the inevitable outrage...it's pre-undersstood).

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 31, 2006 11:50 PM

Peter Travers is ___________.
a. a film critic
b. a movie reviewer

Please answer and discuss.

Posted by: adorian [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 07:17 AM

While I understand and agree with a lot of Dave's comments to the article, I think in some cases he's talking about exceptions rather than the rules (which seems to be what this article was going for).

It's okay to say that the studio was high on Benchwarmers, but what niche audience were they thinking the movie would play with? Not the one that reviews are written for. Nor for the one that would read an article like this (which, I would argue are one and the same - the audience that actually reads newspapers). I think it is fair to say that for the audience of this article, if a movie isn't screened for reviewers, most likely, it isn't going to be received well.

As Dave likes to say, it's all about niche.

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 07:18 AM

PT is c. A whore who has lowered the level of discourse.

And Me, if the media had a 15-year-old critics crew, I can guarentee you that 90% of these unscreened movies would screen.

Yes, everyting is an exception to the rule. It is too easy to forget that every day, people are at these studios challenging themselves to find the "right" answers to every movie they release, not just the "good" ones.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 09:26 AM

"while RV has done $57 million and saw ticket sales increase this weekend after five weeks in theaters."

er, that's a complete lie.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 10:51 AM

"Are you going to start killing bad directors in the style of their worst films?"

That's not a bad idea for a movie

Posted by: Brett B [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 11:37 AM

See Theater of Blood, Brett... a classic.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 11:43 AM

Crazily, the RV figure is true for 4 days... vs last weekend's 3 day... if you count in Monday from the weekend before, it still wasn't up.

There was also a false RV blowjob in Variety earlier this week... guess they are feeling Da Vinci guilt... or they can't/chose-not-to count.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 11:46 AM

Perhaps the real question is can film, a still young medium in the course of human history, be art when there is so much commerce involved?

Of course there are exceptions, but it seems like film is entering into another phase.

Can something that costs so much money, with all that that entails reflect one persons true vision so that it is art.

Again, Kubrick could do it, as can Spielberg or Bergman etc...

But it does seem to look for 'art' in the standard Hollywood studio release is to look for a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow...or bottom of a well.

Craftsmanship perhaps, but art?

Posted by: Nicol D [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 03:58 PM

KC, they are talking about the four-day weekend... Which is bending the truth, but RV was the only one in the top ten to go up (9%) over the 4-day compared to last 3-day weekend. The rest dropped at least 20%, except for Ice Age... Which dropped .2% compared to last weekend.

Posted by: Tofu [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 04:33 PM

To sort of return to the original topic, I note that Rex Reed is linked on Matt Drudge's page. So Drudge has pretty low, weird standards for who qualifies.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 1, 2006 08:23 PM

Okay, I wasn't looking at the four-day numbers when I looked them up.

That's still sneaky writing.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 2, 2006 12:41 AM

RV's legs are strong because there haven't been any other family comedies of late (except HEDGE, which skews too young for most teens). A perfect example of why release dates can be so important.

Posted by: Cadavra [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 2, 2006 10:48 AM

At least one Gannett-owned paper in my state has picked up that story from USA Today.

These same Gannett papers write breathlessly about a film festival at Rutgers University with the premise "All movies in theaters, bad; all movies in film festivals, good." The film festival is really a second-run theater -- and the festival's director is a thug who doesn't want the local megaplexes running arty stuff.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 3, 2006 08:37 AM

Interesting thing I noticed the other day. On an ad for Poseidon the voiceover man said "The first blockbuster of the year from Warner Brothers"

...?

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 4, 2006 07:10 AM

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