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May 26, 2006
Don't Trip On The Hype
I like Anne Thompson a lot, but I found myself snickering through here latest – and most appropriately titled – Risky Business column, headed “To studios in Cannes: Don't trip on red carpet.”
Anne tells the story of perceived success and failure of American films in Cannes this year and gives you a combination of the party line, the filmmaker’s line and in particular, the press’ line. But the big picture suffers. And her biggest problem is in believing that Cannes means anything in America and that it or anything is somehow bigger than the movies themselves.
First, she fetes Paramount’s success in Cannes. Well… they did good. But what did they really do? An Inconvenient Truth has been put through the paces for five months now. Going to Cannes was costly and pretty much unnecessary. Unlike The Da Vinci Code, the film had big premieres in L.A., N.Y. and Washington already. It’s not like the bases weren’t covered. To my eye, going to Cannes, where they got little coverage in the crowded media room, was just another few hundred grand against the film’s bottom line.
DreamWorks’ Dreamgirls did great… because the materials are great. And now, the movie will go into lockdown for the summer, without pushing out similar events to the Cannes event in N.Y. and L.A. because even though Terry Press & Co are surely happy to get Oscar buzz, they don’t want to be the front runner during the summer. Note that Clint Eastwood’s Flags Of Our Fathers, which is the putative frontrunner and is pretty much in the can now, went nowhere near Cannes.
This brings us to Babel, a film that might have made a mistake by going to Cannes at all, longterm. It is a film that absolutely, positively needs to have a festival launch. It’s a big festival movie, with box office prospects of less than $50 million domestic and thanks to Brad Pitt, the potential to do over $100 million in the rest of the world, regardless of quality. (In fact, with Pitt we have learned, the worse the movie, the better it plays overseas.) But while I’m sure Paramount Van Classics has sore shoulders from patting themselves on the back as the idea of pulling a Mystic River, which is Cannes to NY Film Fest opening night, getting the media all worked up now tends to cause a premature ejaculation, not a sustained level of pleasure, which this film desperately needs in order to have box office success, regardless of quality. Inarritu and Arriaga are brilliant… but not pop. And as lovely as dreams of Academy campaigns are right now, they better ay some bills because Academy members have proven, to date, to be a little less urbane than the dynamic duo.
World Trade Center, whose first 26 minute played – a very different kind of presentation than Dreamgirls, though similar in length - got more mixed reviews, but didn’t actually do much to change the balance of where the film will go in August. The film should be locked late in June and when it screens from start to finish, its future will be clearer. Cannes gave people a sweet taste, but it will not linger.
We’re a long way from seeing whether Paramount did well at Cannes or not. Of course, one more dynamic is that if Babel wins the Palm d’Or, it will be one more reason for Oscar voters, but not audiences, to pay attention. On the flip side, winning may keep it out of that NY Film Fest opening slot, which is not neccessarily bad since that fest has been an awards dead zone for a while, though it has launched Mystic River and last year's Good Night, And Good Luck.
As for Sony, who Anne pities for their alleged foibles in France, you have to look beyond the sting in the Croisette. The Da Vinci Code managed to screen for the first time for almost anyone three days before release… and side from a meaningless, unnecessary slap in the NY Times, paid no price for it. In fact, the opposite. My only negative on the Cannes screening was that most of the Sony crew was still on The Train when it happened and some of the negativity could, perhaps, have been ameliorated by their comforting presence. But you know, the movie is the movie is the movie. The reviews were not going to be markedly better than they were. And indeed, the harshness coming out of Cannes did more to make the movie a major event.
So where is the evidence of loss… except for Ron Howard not getting kissed by Giles Jacob… boo hoo… Ron Howard was 100 times more powerful than Giles Jacob before Da Vinci and is 200 times more powerful than Giles Jacob after Da Vinci. The only negative of his apparent snub is that he will discourage filmmakers from coming out to Cannes to allow Cannes to whore itself, as it so dearly wants to, in future. (Here’s an open secret… that won’t matter either… even at Columbia, where the sting will be gone before you can say Click… next time they have the right film at the right time, the same cost/value analysis will be made and another director will want his/her ego stroked.)
As for Sofia Coppola’s Marie Antoinette, here’s the thing… you actually had to show the movie sometime. And Cannes was more likely to bite on it than, say Toronto, where it wouldn’t have been booed, but also would not have stood out much, based on the massive number of films in play and the comments I have heard from all countries, not just French hissers. Moreover, Columbia can now spend the summer resetting the film even more clearly as a romp. Bring It On meets An Interview With The Vampire. Expect a big emphasis on the soundtrack and a lot of MTV action. And if they turn the corner, they turn it. The Cannes experience will empower Sony’s marketers to control the marketing by giving Ms. Coppola an object lesson, however unwished for. And if they don’t get there, it was never going to get any better than this.
Southland Tales, which has cost more than double the figure that Anne has been quoted and swallowed, has been in production for a year. If Richard Kelly wasn’t ready, he shouldn’t have brought the movie. Moreover, the film already has a long tradition of not being done. The production has been a disaster and as with Marie Antoinette, it served as a firm target and not a hindrance. Now, Kelly & Crew can push out this blather about the film being rushed and hope to pull a Brown Bunny of their own, though the actual financial upside of that “turnaround” was still not enough to get it out of the red… and it only cost $3.5 million, not more than 10 times that.
The bottom line is, you have to show your movie. Why didn’t Down In the Valley do better at Cannes? No one wanted to see it then. No one wants to see it now. Why did Brown Bunny turn around? It didn’t. Roger Ebert played/got played Vinnie Gallo and for all the hooplah, the total US gross didn’t pay for the billboard on Sunset that got so much attention.
Cannes is just one marketing tool for English-language movies that go there. Like any other tool, it can fail or succeed. And then, you use your other tools.
And for journalists? A nice week at the beach parties… exhausting… but so is home… and as we know, all politics are local. Cannes is important to those who are there. For those who still have to work to make something positive of these films, it’s already in the rear view mirror.
Posted by poland at May 26, 2006 10:54 AM
Comments
This is the kind of analysis that keeps me coming back to the Hot Blog/Hot Button day after day. Not to sound like a complete kiss-ass or anything (too late!), but I really appreciate the work, Dave.
Posted by: grrbear
at May 26, 2006 12:33 PM
Ron Howard may be more powerful than Gilles Jacob, but I know which one I'd rather share a glass of wine with (even if I don't speak French).
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 26, 2006 12:33 PM
I know one thing going to Cannes did for Truth. Gore got to burn some more jet fuel on the trip and inch the planet's impending doom ever closer.
Posted by: SaveFarris
at May 26, 2006 12:46 PM
Farris, if Gore's movie paves the way for the sort of global concern he hopes it will, then the jet fuel will be a small price paid for a big gain.
Try to get your talking points from a little more sophisticated source than Drudge next time.
Posted by: Eric
at May 26, 2006 01:42 PM
I too appreciate the thought you've put in here, DP...thanks!
But...
Dude, quit trying to pump up DREAMGIRLS. Ever since it was first announced you've been pimping it to no end and it's reminding me of your PHANTOM OF THE OPERA pimping. DREAMGIRLS doesn't interest or disinterest me, especially at this early a point. But man, you're all over this film in Aint It Cool-like proportions. Settle down big fella.
Posted by: PetalumaFilms
at May 26, 2006 01:55 PM
Seems like you are the one who is a bit obsessed there, Pet.
I'm writing about what AT wrote, including Dreamgirls... for two whole sentences.
Do you have some interest in pigeon-holing me? Do you not want to know what the strategy is because that's what I offered. And have you read anyone saying the footage didn't kill?
Oops... written more in response to you than I did to get your oddly myopic spin on that whole piece...
And about Phantom, you are making shit up. I didn't push Phantom any harder than everyone else until November... and then for two weeks. What do you have to do with a film that wants to be an Oscar movie this year, cause you sure are acting like you're trying to position something by pushing an anti-DG agenda. Seriously.
Posted by: David Poland
at May 26, 2006 02:22 PM
I could go either way on Dreamgirls. I'm not terribly excited about it, but I know people who are (it'll do well with African American and gay audiences). I don't know that Beyonce and Jennifer Hudson can act but I know that Eddie Murphy, Jamie Foxx, Danny Glover, etc. can. I don't know that Condon can pull off a movie this big, but then again he's an excellent director of smaller movies and made Chicago better than it should have been.
Posted by: palmtree
at May 26, 2006 02:47 PM
Mrrawr.
Posted by: qwiggles
at May 26, 2006 02:52 PM
Finally saw The Brown Bunny about 6 months ago and damned if I didn't like it.
I saw the post Cannes edit of course and I can totally see how the long version annoyed people.
But, it did play to what Gallo wanted; a film in the spirit of the 70's disillusioned young man genre. I thought it's mood was quite affecting.
As for Cannes itself, I think for the average film goer it is neither fish not fowl. A good run at Cannes does not guarantee respect or box office and neither does a bad run guarantee bad reviews and BO.
More and more, Cannes seems to be its own breed entirely...of more note for the industry chatter and hype than having any bearing on the average film itself.
As for Gore's film, I would be very interested in reading what someone like Patrick Moore thought of it.
Posted by: Nicol D
at May 26, 2006 02:56 PM
I've been away from the blog for a while and missed everyone getting on your case a few entries back for what I basically said above...sorry for bringing up something that has been brought up before. However...
I'm not obsessed about anything. The second DREAMGIRLS went into production, you were all over it and it seemed odd then. Maybe you read the script or knew alot more about the project then you let on, but still. Now, you're the journalist who's getting known on the web as "the guy who's saying DREAMGIRLS is an Oscar contender." Or, "that guy at moviecitynews who thinks Dreamgirls is the one to beat."
As was said previously, you have every right to be excited about a movie and I definitely like a journalist who gets excited rather than one who's just burnt out and cynical. Plus, I really like you and although I don't always agree with you, I appreciate the interesting conversations. I have no desire in pigeon-holing you. But I still don't understand the excitement over DREAMGIRLS.
Plus, your wording in this blog post about DREAMGIRLS tips your hand that you're pushing the film for whatever reason. Granted, I don't scour every blog to see what the buzz is on certain projects, but I do enjoy your site and have noticed how much you're excited for DREAMGIRLS. I'm not the only one...
Posted by: PetalumaFilms
at May 26, 2006 03:34 PM
Stop with the Dreamgirls! We'll have enough pimping of it from Poland in the months to come without having to bring it up ourselves! ;)
Back to the article...why did Paramount/Dreamworks have so much product at Cannes? That seems pretty unusual for a major.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at May 26, 2006 05:17 PM
I'm really tired of the "Cannes means nothing in the US" crap. Of course it means something, but only to the industry. The same as Sundance, Toronto and any other festival you can name. Go out and ask any non-industry person to name one film that played Sundance this year. Or ever for that matter. Most people don't even know the Oscar winners.
Film festivals are by-and-large about the press/critics and raising profiles of projects for the sake of the industry, and industry sure as hell pays attention. Even if the film goes into hibernation for several months, critics and industry will remember it when it resurfaces, and it will inform how they talk about it. How much it all matters is dependently unpredictable--it's a gamble, and one of the few gambles this industry seems to take anymore.
As for "Inconvenient Truth", I'm not sure but I imagine it went to Cannes to spur international sales. To say it's been through it's paces for 5 months, or to discount any film that appears at Cannes, blindly ignores the fact that it is first-and-foremost a market.
Posted by: champura
at May 26, 2006 05:33 PM
All this Dreamgirls stuff would have fizzed out and died if Poland would just respond "I think it looks good" instead of getting defensive and insinuating that others on the blog are working for rival productions in a paranoid way.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 26, 2006 06:15 PM
Jeff,
Are you serious when you say you'd rather talk to Giles Jacob than Ron Howard? I think you're talking out your ass. Have you listened to Howard on Elvis Mitchell's radio program. The man has a thousand interesting stories. The man's been in the business for almost 50 years! He worked with Andy Griffith, John Wayne, and Roger Corman. Besides Burton, he's the only director to "get" Michael Keaton's talent. He directed Henry Winkler's only memorable screen performance.
Think before you write Jeff.
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent
at May 26, 2006 07:22 PM
Cannes means nothing in the US.
Posted by: Blackcloud
at May 26, 2006 08:32 PM
Jimmy: you'd think a guy with that much experience and knowledge would know not to make a movie as cruddy as The Da Vinci Code. The man is a hack.
To his credit though, he did help give us Arrested Development.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 26, 2006 08:44 PM
David, can you, maybe, post a reminder that the director's cut of Kingdom of Heaven came out this week? Because people should be reminded. Also then I'd have a thread in which to gush over it, which I really feel the need to do.
For now I'll just say that it's a sad, sad thing that this wasn't released as the theatrical version.
Posted by: Lynn
at May 26, 2006 09:29 PM
Jeff,
Does DaVinci Code erase the fact that he made Night Shift, Splash, Parenthood, Backdraft, The Paper, Apollo 13, Ransom, A Beautiful Mimd, and Cinderella Man? I mean, even Spielberg made Hook.
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent
at May 26, 2006 10:26 PM
Poland,
What do you think about the idea of Paramount moving World Trade Center out of August and try getting it into the NY Film Fest. This hasn't been brought up, but I think it sounds like a no-brainer. United 93 had Tribecca. Why not NYFF for WTC?
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent
at May 26, 2006 10:30 PM
Great article there Dave.
You're right about Marie-Antoinette though. I wonder if they'll be able to get the teenage audience that became such a big part of Lost in Translation's success.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at May 26, 2006 10:53 PM
Jimmy, I only think three those nine movies are good.
You're right, though. If he was interested in producing something I had written/wanted to direct, I'd listen to him talk all day about how Andy Griffith is a saint (a saint!).
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 27, 2006 12:33 AM
Gent - I would hate to see it happen. I haven't seen the whole film yet... it's not locked... but if it works for real people, the audience, August will be the right place for it. To take it to the NY FIlm Festival would make it a politcal football, which is not in its favor... unless it wants to do U93 numbers.
The film was described to me by someone who saw a rough cut as inredibly emotional and jarring, which the first segment they showed in Cannes only does a little it of. My take is that audiences love to feel and that was the weakess of U93. If this does it, sell it like a movie. (And shake it like a Polaroid picture.)
Posted by: David Poland
at May 27, 2006 12:35 AM
This will get old by the time August comes around, but United 93 was the most emotionally affecting film I've seen this year. Too bad for its box-office that it was a film and not a movie.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 27, 2006 12:55 AM
A couple of things...
1. Don't care how "some people on the web" perceive me. If i start worrying abou that, I am dead.
2. I was onto Dreamgirls well before production started. I know the show and I know where Condon was taking it. That said, this entry is the seventh entry in which I have mentioned the film in the last year. Seven.
And why is this more interesting tham me putting The History Boys in the Top Five?
3. If you read my Oscar piece, the film is behind the Eastwood film(s) as "the one to beat" and that is, as always, subject to change.
None of us have seen all the films. Many of us in the media have now seen more of Dreamgirls than any of the other holiday season films. Just wait for the moment when I am convinced that World Trade Center might be a serious contender!!!
4. I have no idea how repeating pretty much what Anne Thomson said "tips my hand" toward anything. That is the kind of thinking I find so offensive. Am I disallowed from saying what everyone in Cannes said? Am I fighting the tide? Or is everyone pushing an agenda?
This is not a game to me. I observe. I report. Yes, there has been more available on Dreamgirls than other awards season films. Yes, if I thought Babel or Marie Antoinette or anything at Cannes this year was a serious Oscar contender (Babel is a lock for a special award at the Indie Spirits), I would be writing more about them.
What frustrates me so is this idea that I am marked with as scarlet letter (in this case "D") and somehow, my opinion is tainted. I like the guys from Capote, but back when I was one of the only people predicting a Best Picture nomination for that film, it too had nothing to do with anything but the context of the season... Capote was strong and accessible. On the flip side, I have no vendetta against George Clooney. I just had a hard time buying GN&GL as a Best Picture nominee.
I am not shy about my feelings about movies I love or hate. But I can't have them before there is a movie. Every year, there are movies I believe in and am then crushed when they are clearly not good enough or the studio mishandles them. I still believe that had Fox pushed a bit more effectively, Walk The Line would have been nominated and would have stood a good chance of winning once the five were set. But we’ll never know, will we? And yet, the film was not in my Top Ten for the year. Why? Just somewhere my gut took me. I almost want to apologize to James Mangold for that, but you know, that is the nature of this beast.
I appreciate that you offer your time and interest here and don’t mind disagreement. What gets me pissed is crap like this where there is no good answer. Arguing makes me look more guilty of something I am not at all guilty of. I am a failure in the arena of inaction. So I offer this again, against my better instinct and don’t plan on fighting this fight again. It’s a little like someone calling you a racist or sexist or something. Hard to deal with in any way.
Posted by: David Poland
at May 27, 2006 01:08 AM
DP...on subjects like this, the less you say, the more convincing you are. The basic problem is that you often try to straddle the line between objective authority on all things business and industry, and yet have very strong, opinionated feelings about certain films and filmmakers. It's not an easy balance to strike. So therefore, please don't get so defensive when some of us think that we're seeing an imbalance. Ultimately, a shrug will do where a rant will not.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 27, 2006 01:30 AM
Yeah, a shrug would go a lot further than comparing yourself to a victim of racism or sexism. Being accused of liking a movie is a loooong way from what you act like the posters on this board are accusing you of.
To quote my favorite tv show, "It's because I love you that I can tell you that no rich white kid ever got anywhere with me comparing himself to Rosa Parks."
Posted by: Me
at May 27, 2006 08:35 AM
Ignorance is bliss. That the message?
I consider that disresepctful of you. But if that's what floats your boat...
Posted by: David Poland
at May 27, 2006 12:38 PM
Who said that?
The message is, getting all riled up is the best way to get other people all riled up.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 27, 2006 01:31 PM
jeff, who gives a shit what you think? It's Polands site, certainly his prerogative if not his imperative to defend his commentaries. Lighten up.
Posted by: martin
at May 29, 2006 01:35 PM
It's funny because that's the exact same thing I'm telling Poland to do is lighten up. Drinks all around!
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 29, 2006 01:58 PM
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