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Anything under $20M is unmitigated disaster.

I'm going with $45M for the weekend, and it'll be a good 50% drop next weekend, which will about tie it with Poseidon.

$45 Million

Hopscotch, I went away from the page, then came back to enter my number. Didn't see yours. Too funny.

The matinee I went to was half empty, if that means anything... I'm not sensing a frenzy... Plus the word of mouth will be soft, at least mine will be - liked, didn't love it.

So let's say $M40. This will definitely be considered a disappointment, and Cruise will be blamed. Which might be a good thing - I'd rather see him make more MAGNOLIAs and EYES WIDE SHUT than M:I-4.

Argh, what happened to my comment?

Under 45m would be considered disappointing. I'm guessing this will do better than 55 million in it's opening weekend and take do more than 500m in world-wide BO.

Are you guys working for Paramount or are your expectations really that low?

It's ok with me... I'm just a little surprised. You think Van Helsing numbers wouldn't be a dissapointment?

I think anything under $50 has to be considered a disappointment.
$50-60 would be considered reasonable.
$60+ is a success.

This doesn't strike me as a film with a ton of fans panting to catch the midnight screenings or the early first-day shows. The whole franchise has never been like that; the earlier ones did solid, but not unbelievable numbers (though I don't feel like going to BoxOffice Mojo to figure out the adjusted figures for them).

I think MI3 should get to $180-200 domestic pretty comfortably, and upwards of $450 total WW (though I'm usually worse at predicting WW than domestic).

I still think around $65 to 70 million... and I agree..anything under $50 million is a disappointment.

The last Mission Impossible opened with $58 m, but that was with a Memorial Day boost. Anything below that is bad, but not fatal. Unlike Van Helsing, MI3 will sell overseas regardless of how it does domestic.

The Friday mats have been soft, but I expect a rebound tomorrow (the film skews older) and it'll end up pulling in $60-65. Below my $75m prediction yesterday but still pretty great.

Okay, the closest bidder, with out going over, wins. I say $38 million.

That's happened to me to Aladdin. too funny. I still think the worldwide gross of this movie will be huge, like every Tom Cruise movie, but domestically not so much.

MI3 feels like WAR OF THE WORLDS, box-office-wise. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it follows a similar trajectory.

War of the Worlds had a six-day holiday opening gross of $77m...I would guess that MI3's three-day non-holiday opening weekend will be less than that, like around 50-55, not awful, not great. It'll fall hard enough for Poseidon to take #1 next weekend with an opening of around 35-40.

So why do you think Poseidon does any business? Nobody worth seeing is in the thing. The stunts and special effects from the original look at least as good as the stuff I've seen in the trailer. Everything in the new version seems like a 1/3 scale model. The film just looks and feels less grand. The ship seems smaller, the ballroom less elegant, the cast less exceptional, the stunts less...well...less stunning. The trailer leaves me completely cold.

I think it sinks like a rock.

If Van Helsing can make nearly $52 million, can't Cruise and an MI movie make at least that much? I say at least $55 million.

I think even WB is done with Poseidon. Their focus now is opening Superman as big as possible.

MI3 is at least $10M bigger than $50m.

I think it will do well 50-55 milllion,it will get to about 480-500WW. It won't beat Ice Age 2 worldwide, but it will keep lining money in Tom cruise's pockets.

The matinee I went to in Plano, Texas was pretty close to packed.

I think $60 mill will keep that crazy smile on Cruise's face, even if it feels a little soft because of all the publicity. Under $60 mill a legit disappointment, over 60 mill an ok hit. Over 70 mill a legit massive opener. (not likely).

Whoever was putting those under $20 mill numbers is retarded and should not be commenting on box office discussions.

And Van Helsing genuinely stiffed. Movies like VH, MI3, etc. are so hyped through the roof that middling 50's openings are not good.

However, I believe MI3 will have decent legs, no matter what it does this weekend, it will finish with at least $150 domestic.

I don't know about the numbers getting a huge bump on saturday.

Game 7: Lakers vs. Suns.

Screw the Lakers.

Go Spurs Go!

"So why do you think Poseidon does any business? Nobody worth seeing is in the thing"

You are thinking like a shallow movie agent or lowly movie executive. No one is worth seeing in this thing??

Dude, I'll take Kurt Russell and Richard Dreyfuss etc over Tom fucking Cruise any day. And the film will cut through more demographics than MI3 - women, teens, older men, younger men, -- the spectacle and action will sell the film.

The ROLLING STONE review was very positive as well as the Jeffrey Wells one. The 8 clips they showed online looked impressive and darker than expected for a film of this nature.

The only thing that worries me is the supposed 95-100 running time on the flick - I wonder why so short.

Anyone care to wager?

Poseidon looks like the generic genre crap (think Day after Tomorrow) that will make a lot of money and still have no respect. Petersen gave up on making good movies a couple decades ago, but this is the summer, and quality has nothing to do with box office.

A post-Oprah year of ultrascans, threatening to eat placentas, silent births, psychiatry rantings, etc is not gonna help Cruise...

Trust me, considering what Paramount spent on the flick, the film will dissapoint.

Also, am I the only one kinda disgusted with all the PT Barnum MI3 publicity bullshit - talk about OVERKILL. That turns peeps off.

One interesting thing tho, and this is unlike years past - no woman I know wants to see MI3 or remotely interested in watching Cruise (these women used to force me to go watch EYES WIDE SHUT and COCKTAIL etc) ...

Early word isn't good... if it doesn't make at least $20 million for Friday, then it's not doing $60 million for the weekend.

"The only thing that worries me is the supposed 95-100 running time on the flick - I wonder why so short."

It's 126 minutes -- actually, it's one of the few action films in recent years that doesn't try to overlast its welcome by an extra 20 minutes. Give me a well-paced 2 hr action film over a bloated 2 hr 20 min one any day.

Given how it's tracking, I think it will most definitely not come anywhere close to $20 million on Friday. $15 million, tops... thus leaving its weekend up to whatever Saturday boost it can get.

Oh, just for the heck of it, I'll say $47 mill.

When he said 95-100 minute running time, he was talking about Poseidon.

Between 65 and 75 seems healthy.

MI3 will not have good legs (other than Maggie Q's of course). The Van Helsing model seems likely for domestic, but foreign should push it over the top.

My favorite shot in MI3, just coming out of it: when Cruise and Monaghan are walking on the street in Shanghai near the end, they get far enough away from camera that you can see that Cruise is wearing shoes with huuge lifts on them, like 2 inches.

Put me in for 60...

$17 million on Friday according to Klady.

I see this reported elsewhere. A 17m dollar Friday opening does not bode well. Saturdays typically do slightly better (especially if this has good word of mouth. But 17M - Fri, 19M - Sat, and 13-14 - Sun = ~50.

Bourne Supremacy opened 18.4, 19.5, 14.5 (52.5) for its three-day weekend. However, it also opened in late July, which means many more teenagers had the day off.

Looks like Van Helsing type numbers, but with longer legs. Should top out at $150 mil.

well, damn - I had avoided looking at the Friday numbers to put in my two cents and then someone had to post the fucker anyway.

I think the film is going to end up a disappointment no matter what it does this weekend compared to what Paramount thought it would do when they greenlite it. This is THE movie for them this year and as such a blockbuster they obviously expected it to start generating profit in North America alone. Unlike Warner Bros., which would have to be a den of crack whores to think that POSEIDON would see profit at $160M without overseas money.

But, my "disappointment" target for Paramount for M:i:III has always been $75M. This is a "TOM CRUISE!!!" movie and as such raises expectations, especially when you factor in the genre and the season. I agree, I too have heard many women saying Cruise now joins Tears for Fears albums and the cast poster for "Saved By the Bell" as infatuations from their youths.

If this was a boxing match, then you have to assume that DA VINCI CODE is going to be at least a big body blow to its box office take and X-MEN 3 is going to be a round house that will send it onto the ropes if not the canvas. Which means POSEIDON is the big question mark, a jab that might turn into a devastating right hook as it drains away that core audience of young males who decide to ditch pretty, weird boy Cruise and take their friends/dates to watch the boat sink.

In which case, the weekends starting at $70M will drop like this - $35M, $20M, $10M. Which means it barely limps to $175M and never makes it past $200 which would seem to be the new "$100M" blockbuster stage.

(NOTE TO POLAND: did you mean to write "...before you STOP calling..." or perhaps "...you start calling it a HIT?" Otherwise it doesn't make sense.)

You know, my heart goes out to Cruise... this was supposed to be the summer of recovery from the publicity apocalypse of 2005. A big movie. A new kid. And here he is... even worse off than last year.

He seems like a good, decent man (and one of the most underrated actors of the past twenty years) but it's obvious something is welling up in this man on a volcanic level. Like I said, the Letterman appearance was painful to watch... You could see the muscles twitch in his smile.

Even weirder is that apparently in his religion, Cruise is considered "clear"... calm and at peace with the world!

I think people give cruise a lot of shit for religious beliefs that are frankly no odder than any of the major religions in this country like catholicism or judaism. I don't hear of any scientologists bombing civilians or any other bullshit like that. They're weirdos, but that can be said about any religious fanatics.

As far as disappointment for cruise, this will still make 3-400 mill worldwide. For him those are fine numbers, for paramount, not as great. But how often are the 3rd movies in a franchise super successful? usually by 3 they start losing steam unless they're pure-product like a star wars movie. Cruise will still be seen as a good money choice after this is all over and will get to make some more hits down the road. He should chill out on the publicity circuit, the public is very forgiving for odd behavior down the road, look at Mariah Carey.

Trust me guys I've been telling you for ages, don't dismiss POSEIDON - it's the dark horse in the race among DA VINCI, X-MEN 3 (which is looking worse and worse the more footage it shows) bow that MI3 is regarded as a dissapointment (people have simply had enough of Tom Cruise *and* Tom Cruise heroics).

POSEIDON next week grosses 40+ million - it will be #1 and will do around $160 domestic or more. You heard it here first - if I'm wrong I'll send Waterbucket a DVD of any 'male bonding' film he wants.

Roy Batty, how dare you drag down Tears For Fears with Tom Cruise and SAVED BY THE BELL!

It's a shame when a $50 million movie is a disappointment, but it's going to open softer than MI 1 in 1,000 more theatres and softer than MI2 in 400 more theatres. (Granted, it's also not Memorial Day Weekend.) I think WOM will help and it will have better legs than a movie going up against the likes of Poseidon, Da Vinci and X-Men should have. I expect it ends the summer around $170 to 180 still.

"Roy Batty, how dare you drag down Tears For Fears with Tom Cruise and SAVED BY THE BELL!"

Amen, brother.

So who else has actually seen the movie and what did they think of it?

spacesheik, I'm going to remember what you've said.

Overall, it wasn't impressive as all the edges you could sense JJ was trying to bring were mostly smoothed out. I'm surprised that the MacGuffin wasn't even treated like it was a real threat, making the action feel even more limp. That's why I don't believe this will have legs...there's not enough to warrant repeat viewings (except to see Cruise being dwarfed by Monaghan).

Yeah, all of the 'spy activity' was a total pretext for what Cruise seems to be really interested in, proving himself as an able husband/protector/stunt guy, and working at all costs to keep his girlfriend from finding out about his 'secret lifestyle' that includes him doing things like meeting Billy Crudup in 7-11s in the middle of the night.

"...how dare you drag down Tears For Fears with Tom Cruise and SAVED BY THE BELL!"

Jack Morrissey and Blackcloud - I was picking two pop culture icons from the 80's (Tears for Fears - especially the connection to BREAKFAST CLUB) and 90's (Saved by the Bell) as something that girls of those eras would cherish but probably aren't daily presences in their lives anymore. I wanted to suggest that Cruise's antics and questionable sexuality have finally removed him as a fantasy object for women now in their late 20's to 40's which was his core fan base.

Rest assured, as music seems to bond with us Tears For Fears is still safe for enjoyment. For me, not only do they remind me of my youth & BREAKFAST CLUB, but "the hurting" was the soundtrack for the summer I spent in England.

Not that this is a scientific study, but I think Cruise's image is hurting his box office. I couldn't find anyone to go see this with me. The lady friend scoffed at the suggestion. My family members turned me down. Friends did the same. Each person went out of their way to express their disgust with Cruise and said they have no interest in seeing his movies. Granted, that's not a whole lot of people, but I was surprised at how strongly they reacted to my invitation to see MI3. Oh, I thought it was OK. Decent midsection but an awful ending.

"I don't hear of any scientologists bombing civilians or any other bullshit like that."

No, they just cause them to die under mysterious circumstances in Florida hotels.

Actually, what they do is worse than bombing, as the actions of any cult take away people's freedome of choice.

I have to give props to Tom Cruise: Not many other male action stars are suficiently self-assured to allow a female co-star to do the heavy lifting in the final shootout, the way Cruise does at the end of "MI3."

That scene is idiotic.

How is it more so than anything else that happens in the movie? I rather enjoyed his electrical improvisations.

I enjoyed the film a lot (up to and including the ending). Hoffman, Crudup and Fishburne were all excellent and the missions of the IMF team were great fun (especially the Vatican).

And I'm in love with Michelle Monahagn ever since Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

I'll definitely be recommending this to people.

I realize what kind of movie this is, but when the nurse suddenly becomes an action hero with expert aim, well, I thought that was pretty lame.

"The stunts and special effects from the original look at least as good as the stuff I've seen in the trailer."

Fact, Poseidon's main target audience hasn't seen the original. Hell, they probably don't even know it's a remake.

I've always felt that Poseidon reminded me of Fantastic 4. It won't be good, but it's SO neutral that people will see it. Audiences who are turned off by Tom Cruise and Tom Hanks' hair will see it. Plus, if they've read the book (which a lot of young people have) and didn't like it then they won't wanna see that. And a lot of young people think Cruise is batshit crazy. I can easily see Poseidon getting to $175mil.

As I mentioned on the other entry about MI3's Friday performance, it'll have to be seen as a disappointment. With three big pictures coming up in the next three weeks it should've made more. But as I said in the other entry, the marketing for this film was all wrong at times.

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