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I think MV will do more than $30M, but that should be about that. I actually think John Tucker Must Die will do better than some think, high teens. Girls in my office (who are all above 25) say they can't wait to see it. Which I thought was interesting. I mentioned MV and they all shrugged with "not for me" expression.

And just one final kick to the beaten up artist. What's Lady In the Water's drop going to be? 60%? 70%?

My wife has also been interested in "John Tucker Must Die", and she's presumably outside the target demographic, as well (at age 30).

JTMD also has the gay male contingent locked up. The trailer kills for some reason. I think it's going to surprise.

No, all the girls want to see JTMD because of THAT guy who plays him - Jesse Metcalf! He was Eva Longoria's teenage lover in Desperate Housewives and got plenty of exposure in more ways than one.

Damn. Good day for celebrity gossip. Mel Gibson gets a DUI and James G. Robinson sends a letter to Lindsey Lohan stating that her partying is causing problems and that she better get her shit together.

That explains the over-30 appeal. Plus it has teenage guys wearing women's underwear, which also appeals to multiple segments of the audience.

Mel Gibson! That's a stunner, since he had a high-profile battle with alcohol in the 1980s and has supposedly abstained every since.
This is more sad than anything. Lindsay Lohan's problems are merely stupid.

well, at least Mel now has something to talk about during his Apocalypto promotion. Lets hope he doesn't go all "Paparazzi" on em.

The matinees are running MIAMI, TUCKER, MONSTERS, PIRATES, ANT, LADY and PRADA in that order.

Monster Pirate Ant Lady, coming Summer 2007.

...Attacks Miami?

I too think John Tucker will do decent numbers. I think Dave has the right number, looking at the table. I'm shocked about the fact that ASHANTI is in it playing a high school student. They have GOT to be kidding, with that one.

Ant Bully... wow, does anyone care about this movie?

I predict about $33mil for Miami. It's multi-ethnic cast could certainly help it.

Hey, David, just so you know, I update on Thursday nights once I have actual screen counts. It's not that different except I'm slightly higher on John Tucker Must Die. Early word seems to point to Miami Vice not making $20 million this weekend, which means it might be fighting for #1 with PIrates. Also John TUcker is going to make more than Ant BUlly unless it's really frontloaded or the latter really makes up the difference on Sunday. This has not been a good summer for Warner Bros.

As a matter of fact, here are my final #s:

New Miami Vice $28.8
1 Pirates: Dead Man's Chest $19.4
New The Ant Bully $14.3
2 Monster House $13.8
New John Tucker Must Die $12.7
3 The Lady in the Water $9.2

Even better than the DUI... this is interesting (don't know anything about this site):

http://www.tmz.com/2006/07/28/gibsons-anti-semitic-tirade-alleged-cover-up/

To top it all off Focus seems to be silent on "Scoop". That's what happens when you have a new Woody Allen picture and promote it as "from the director of 'Match Point'." LAME!

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