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July 29, 2006

Friday Estimates by Klady

The sturm & drang by the Axis Of Idiots over the opening of Miami Vice is silly. It will be Mann's best opening ever and no doubt, Universal hopes it is his best international performer ever. Does anyone out there really think that Universal green lit the film without being aware of Mann’s track record at the box office? Is anyone out there claiming to be interested in box office (as opposed to the many long-time, if web launched, analysts) think at all anymore? (The Race For Drudge continues…)

The budget excess is a problem. But oddly, as much as we discuss these issues, people don’t watch budgets on screen. They watch movies. I downgraded by Vice expectations three weeks ago and though it will not be great for the Universal bottom line, their expectations have long been more in line with my projections than the fantasy lives of some others out there. No one on Planet Reality was expecting a $40 million opening and a $150 million domestic gross.

The FGME remains in that slot, but it is slowly coming back to the current #2 all-time domestic grosser, Shrek 2. (#3 if you include the Star Wars re-release, which I’m not going to for the purposes of this discussion.) If this weekend follow’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest 's history so far, the weekend is still looking at something around $21 million. P2 will have only, roughly, a $5 million lead after 4 weekends at that point, though 24 days vs 24 days, P2 will still be up on S2 by more than $20 million… if that really matters nearly a month in. Still, look for the record setting total of $358 million (and change) after four weekends. And look for POTC:DMC to become the sixth $400 million domestic grosser (in initital release) ever and to have to fight to crack the $431 million required to be Top Five all time.

Looks like I was a little low on John Tucker Must Die even though I seem to have been projecting it higher than anyone else. Teen girls don’t track well. Look for a Saturday dip, unless it somehow becomes a Date Night movie for the teens. My guess is that a lot of those dollars, even for the under-17s, will go to Miami Vice this weekend and then will turn up for Tucker next weekend.

Friday-to-Friday for Monster House looks bad, but expect a Saturday recovery, a 38% drop for the weekend and about $13 million.

The Ant Bully's start asks the musical question, “Who’s getting fired at Warner Bros?” (It also makes the timing of the NYT's Sunday smooch of Playtone appear rather ill-timed.) When The Lake House doing just over $50 million is your only success of the summer and you lose money on Superman, Petersen, Shyamalan, and animation that looks a lot like Antz did 8 long CG years ago… someone’s gotta go. More on this to come… and go.

Lady In The Water will balance out through the weekend, so the big Friday drop will not be the weekend drop, but still, getting to $60 million domestic will be a challenge. The film still has a chance to hit black ink, thanks to its $70 million budget, depending on Shyamalan’s gross points deal. But there is nothing pretty about this kind of flop. Maybe Manoj can direct Transformers 2.

bo072906b.jpg
(Size reduced to avoid jokes and to torture grandmothers... to see jokes, see blog comments)

Posted by poland at July 29, 2006 11:39 AM

Comments

Thanks for the upscaling. My grandmother was having difficulty reading the charts.

Posted by: mutinyco [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 11:42 AM

"Thanks for the upscaling. My grandmother was having difficulty reading the charts".

hahahaha cheeky bastard

Posted by: Spacesheik [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 11:52 AM

Surprise, surprise. Yet another underperformer from WB (Ant Bully). Oh well. If Sony can recover from a disasterous last year, then I suppose WB can do the same next year.

Posted by: martindale [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 11:53 AM

I really did want to see "Clerks 2," but at this point, I guess I should just wait for the DVD. I mean, what's three weeks gonna hurt?

Posted by: Josh Massey [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 11:54 AM

wow. Lady in the water is all dried out now. Ant Bully really bombed. my neighbor's kids liked it but looks like most kids are in pools this weekend.

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 11:57 AM

I can honestly say it's not too many times I have to back up 20 feet to read a chart ;)

Anyone else surprised at Miami Vice's opening day gross? Uni beter hope that it's not all front loaded gross.

Talladega is coming!!

Posted by: abba_70s [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:03 PM

Has anyone heard of those five limited-release movies at the bottom of the list? Any of them any good?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:03 PM

I think that "Freedom to Fascism" one is Chucky on the Moon's manifesto against contemporary America.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:11 PM

Could the "Ant Bully" under-performnace be blamed on toon overload? I mean, think about it: "Monster House" last week, "Barnyard" next week.... Don't you think some parents (maybe MOST parents) have only so much money than can budget for movie tickets?

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:14 PM

It's also worth noticing that Superman Returns is now out of the top ten.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:16 PM

Brothers of the Head is interesting, if flawed. It's the narrative (though done as a faux-documentary) feature debut from Pepe and Fulton who have made a bunch of "making of" featurettes and the documentary Lost in La Mancha.

Posted by: djk813 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:20 PM

And, Joe, by the end of the year all will be on DVD, and parents can pick up all three and the kids can watch over and over and over again for the price of taking four or five kids (plus parent) to only one of them in the theater.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:20 PM

The graphics gave me a flashback to Win95 and Netscape 3. The horror!!!

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:21 PM

Scoop's doing about what I thought (2.6 for weekend)... Little MIss Sunshine isn't doing bad and that's pretty good for an expansion or two.

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:23 PM

"Could the "Ant Bully" under-performnace be blamed on toon overload?"

Of course it is. If I was a studio holding on to a computer-animated feature, I'd delay it until at least next March - or maybe even later, with the exception of "Shrek the Third." The folks behind "Barnyard" are in for a long weekend.

Posted by: Josh Massey [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:24 PM

I think computer animation is common enough now that it isn't a draw in and of itself. There's no gee-whiz factor, so something like Ant Bully sinks because it looks like it offers nothing that twenty films before it did not.

I wish Monster House had found a larger audience-- I really loved it.

Shouldn't be surprised about the Clerks drop, but damn. I hope Kevin Smith has realized that the well has run dry for the Askewniverse.

Posted by: Eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:26 PM

I think if you're the third ant CG movie, you've got to offer something really new and/or different. Instead they appeared to offer Over the Hedge meets Honey I Shrunk the Kids meets Antz meets A Bug's Life. It feels too home video. There's so much more potential with CG animation that when someone does something truly new and different, it will excite at the B.O. as well.

Posted by: palmtree [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:30 PM

Yikes - as Josh implied, Barnyard is pretty much guaranteed to do even worse than Ant Bully.

I wish Miami Vice had opened better. It needs Collateral-like legs.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:36 PM

"Freedom to Fascism" is a nut-job treatise on why no one has to pay the income tax. I'm surprised it's doing as well as it is.

And "Sunshine" isn't just "not doing bad." 103K on 7 screens? That's a Friday only PSA of 14K. It's doing phenomonally.

The true story of the weekend? "John Tucker Must Die" could do 18M this weekend, and may well be one of the most profitable major releases of the summer.

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 12:59 PM

'"Freedom to Fascism" is a nut-job treatise on why no one has to pay the income tax. I'm surprised it's doing as well as it is.'

I think you explained why people might be into it in your first sentence.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 01:03 PM

Here's the other thing that killed Ant Bully--I think they were counting on Imax to help drive the gross (as 3D helped drive Monster House and Imax drove Polar Express). Because Superman is doing so well and because Ant Bully had lack of attraction to adults, looks like a lot of Imax screens aren't giving Ant Bully full days of shows. (E.g., Loews Lincoln Square in NYC is running only one showing of Ant Bully and 3 of Superman.)

Posted by: MattM [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 01:03 PM

Nice job on John Tucker, David. On the contrary, I think teen girls are hard to track because they're so fickle because they always see thngs and immediately say "I want to see that" and then don't. That's the problem I see with teen girl tracking. This was one of the cases where they delivered, but I'd have to compare tracking to other movies to see if this was a fluke or not. I do know that it wasn't tracking at all in any other quadrant... but still, Fox should make the money they would have made with Super ExGF last week on this one for a budget that's probably a third the amount. It all evens out... well, at Fox anyway.

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 01:28 PM

"Maybe Manoj can direct Transformers 2".

Ouch!

I don't know who said this - maybe it was Poland - but I think Shyamalan would make a perfect Rod Serling type for the new millenium - maybe have his own anthology show.

Posted by: Spacesheik [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 01:33 PM

Who are the Axis of Idiots?

Shyamalan is going to have to rein in his need to provide 'lessons' to the audience if he wants to continue with his career. To be fair, the preachier Twilight Zones were also the weakest for Serling, too.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 01:53 PM

agreed, using a term like "axis of idiots" without context or reference is bad journalism.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 02:48 PM

"bad journalism?"

Oy.

It was not a MCN headline. It was a blog note.

It's an attempt not to end up in endless flame wars with fools. Buck up... you can all figure it out easily enough.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 03:36 PM

So the answer to my question "who are the Axis of Idiots" is 'figure it out for yourself'?
I don't mind if that's what you're saying, it doesn't seem to be very imporant at all. I just want to make sure.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 03:45 PM

Although calling martin and myself 'fools' is not endearing.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 03:47 PM

No one called you "fools." Unless you think you are part of the Axis of Idiots. I don't.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 04:11 PM

Thanks.
But I don't know who the Axis of Idiots are so I'm hyperventilating in terror that the unthinkable could be true!!!
(is Wells one?)

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 04:12 PM

Dave, i imagined you meant finke, wells, friedman, and/or drudge (3 out of 4 haters). But uh Finke and Drudge both are saying Vice did well... so I'm at a loss. What other box office commenters are saying vice bombed. Gitesh Pandya was pro on it. The Mojo guy doesn't comment on fridays afaik, um... Yeah, no effin clue.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 04:17 PM

Finke is definately one of the Axis of Idiots....this is taken from her post today.

That would make this Michael Mann's biggest movie opening of his directorial career as Vice took in $8.8 mil Friday for what will probably be a $27 mil finish. (Mann's last big film, Collateral, starring Tom Cruise in his first villain role, opened at $24 mil.) That's hardly blockbuster status, especially considering the $150+ mil cost, because Mann movies tend to be better received among critics than at box offices. (Which still doesn't explain why studios make movies with Mann...)

She's what referred to in the Latin.....a dorkus malorkus. I think thats Latin.

Posted by: the keoki [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 04:53 PM

They make movies with Mann because he gets it done! Dammit Nikki Finke!

Posted by: the keoki [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 05:01 PM

ah, that's what I get for glancing through her article quickly. FYI, Drudge's link calls the film a hit... So is he part of the Axis of Idiots simply for linking?

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 05:14 PM

They make movies with Mann so at the end of the year they can say, "Look, we did at least one adult theme movie by an adult director, what more do you want?"

Posted by: Aladdin Sane [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 06:27 PM

he keeps getting budgets because one way or another his films generally hit the black and get good or great reviews. He's been on the "cusp" for awhile where they think yeah, this is the time for his huge break-out box office success, plus we know he'll get good reviews too. Let's be realistic here, Vice will probably do about $90 domestic another $150 foreign then $80 on DVD and 20 on tv deals and what have you. It will make a modest profit. Not as much as Collateral, but ok money. And it looks good on the balance sheet. It may be a bit harder for Mann to get another $150 budget anytime soon, but he's still strongly in the game after this one and may do more next time. When the studio hired mann and gave him this budget, these are the numbers they expected. They were aiming for more, certainly, but these numbers are neither a surprise nor a disappointment to them.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 08:12 PM

"Yikes - as Josh implied, Barnyard is pretty much guaranteed to do even worse than Ant Bully."

You never know, Barnyard is really being aimed at young kids like Curious George. It could easily do around $12mil, but agreed, it could die at the box-office too.

I always thought John Tucker could do decent business. There hasn't really been a movie for teen girls in a while. Anywhere between $15-$20mil is a triumph.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 01:06 AM

Barnyard freaks me out. Why does the lead character, a male cow(ie bull) have an udder? WTF? It makes my brain want to crawl out of my head and jump in front of a train.

Posted by: PastePotPete [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 03:03 AM

^^^The Gay Mafia, or if you prefer, The Liberal Media, trying to confuse our kids.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 04:51 AM

"Why does the lead character, a male cow(ie bull) have an udder?"

You never heard of cow trannies?

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 07:12 AM

"You never heard of cow trannies?"

(Puts down the glass of milk)

Posted by: Spacesheik [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 09:10 AM

I guess crazy Nikke was right and Kevin Smith was wrong. Even with a much lower P&A budget than the usual flick, Clerks 2 is a pretty big disappointment. The dropoff was huge. It's going to top out at a much lower number than even Kevin predicted.

And the thing is, it's his best film in a while. I guess most people just don't care about the View Askew universe.

Posted by: MASON [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 09:11 AM

I guess crazy Nikke was right and Kevin Smith was wrong. Even with a much lower P&A budget than the usual flick, Clerks 2 is a pretty big disappointment. The dropoff was huge. It's going to top out at a much lower number than even Kevin predicted.

And the thing is, it's his best film in a while. I guess most people just don't care about the View Askew universe.

Posted by: MASON [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 09:16 AM

Pirates always goes up tremendously on Saturday...it has legs to run through the end of summer and beyond if theaters keep it on the screens. I went to an almost sold out show Friday night, lots of people were seeing it for the first time and enjoying it, so the WOM has been great.

Posted by: Sandy [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 09:38 AM

Nikki was wrong. In spite of the drop, Clerks II will be a major moneymaker. Tens of millions.

Kevin was a little disnigenuous, in that Weinstein put out about $10 million in P&A. Not anything near the average, but a lot more than nothing. Still... the film will do almost $25 million domestic, which will return almost $14 million, which will put the movie nearly into the black in theatrical alone.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 10:10 AM

It's not that the cows have udders, it's that the cows have male voices.

I love that the zombie sheep movie is screening in Toronto. ZOMBIE SHEEP, PEOPLE!

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 11:18 AM

"From Paramount and Nickelodeon, the companies so stupid they think cows are male..."

Posted by: Cadavra [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 30, 2006 04:30 PM

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