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July 16, 2006
Sunday Estimates by Klady
After 10 days, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest is the fastest grossing film ever by an estimated $21.5 million.
And, it is likely once again, that Disney has done its best to estimate low to get another success story on Monday afternoon, when “finals” come out.
For the upcoming second set of weekdays, the gold record standard is Shrek 2’s $23.4m, $5.8m, $5.4m, $5.1m. The reason the Monday number is so big is that it hit the Memorial Day holiday.
Current second fastest grosser, Star Wars: Episode Three – Return of the Sith, can’t catch up tomorrow. It’s Second-Monday-Memorial-Day gross was only $14.8, so P2 could gross nothing and still be in the lead.
That said, things start to equalize out, as the box office has a short memory about whether movies opened on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. At the end of the second Monday in release, Sith is the leader with $270.5 million on Day 12. Pirates Deux hits Day 12 on Tuesday and likely will fall behind Sith that day.
The high for a non-holiday second Monday seems to be Spider-Man’s $5.25m, followed by The Passion of the Christ’s $5 million. I can’t find any other titles that hit the $5 million mark that day… a few 4s and lots of 3s.
Based on Klady’s estimates, Pirates needs to gross $12.1 million on Monday and Tuesday to match Sith's 12-day record. It’s possible, but unlikely.
We still have no guidance about whether P2 will end up with $370 million domestic or $470 domestic. Next landmark, $300 million (see yesterday’s entry for more on that.)
Now… after getting that out of the way…
Little Man and You, Me & Dupree will continue to duke it out tomorrow. Expect “finals” to be slow in coming as Sony and Universal do the dance of #2 death. Both Klady and Mojo have the separation of the two at $400,000, going Little Man's way and given Date Night being the potential separator, the number should stick.
You can tell Warner Bros is tired of getting slammed on Sunday night on Superman Returns. Last weekend, the film’s Sunday number was 9% off of the Friday number. This weekend, Mojo is reporting an estimate of a Sunday slightly higher than Friday. That probably explains why Mojo's number for the weekend is $400,000 over Klady’s, who seems to have accounted for matching those Friday vs Sunday numbers while Mojo did not.
It’s still the worse drop (Mojo's 46.7% v Klady's 49.9%) in the Top Eight (Nacho Libre, losing a third of its screens, dropped 54.4% to top the 10). Even if the films slows its weekend drops (59% and 49% so far) to an average 35%, the film would have to play into mid-September to hit $200 million domestic, at least 6 more weeks.
Meanwhile, The Devil Wears Prada continues to hold nicely and appears to be about two or three weeks from hitting $100 million.
Cars effort to become the #2 for the summer, domestically, will be determined in a big way by Monster House, opening next weekend. If Monster House becomes a dominant kids title, Cars could be thwarted… or at least slowed from getting passed X3 until squeezing it into September. If not, Cars will get there in a few weeks.
A Scanner Darkly’s $5460 per screen on 216 screens is not going to inspire a lot of exhibitors to book it into a lot more screens. On the other hand, An Inconvenient Truth continues to chug along, off just 7% as it continues to slowly expand.
=========================================
Title | Distributor | Gross (average) | % change | Theaters | Cume
POTC: Dead Man's Chest | BV | 62.3 (15,080) | -54% | 4133 | 258.4
Little Man | Sony | 21.8 (8,610) | | 2533 | 21.8
You, Me and Dupree | Uni | 21.4 (6,824) | | 3131 | 21.4
Superman Returns | WB | 11.2 (2,970) | -49% | 3765 | 163.2
The Devil Wears Prada | Fox | 10.1 (3,600) | -33% | 2810 | 83.2
Cars | BV | 7.2 (2,400) | -33% | 3003 | 219.4
Click | Sony | 6.7 (2,030) | -44% | 3296 | 119.4
The Lake House | WB | 1.6 (920) | -45% | 1710 | 48.9
Nacho Libre | Par | 1.5 (1,000) | -55% | 1501 | 77.1
A Scanner Darkly | WIP | 1.2 (5,460) | 201% | 216 | 1.8
An Inconvenient Truth | Par Classics | 1.1 (1,910) | -7% | 570 | 17
Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drifr | Uni | 1.0 (890) | -60% | 1140 | 59.7
Posted by poland at July 16, 2006 10:32 AM
Comments
Cars recovered nicely on Sat-Sun for a -33%. FIgure it adds another $4 million before it loses screens next weekend. I still think it will get to DP's $235.
Pretty good biz for both LM and Dupree. Those Wayans have an audience that will come out the first weekend. Beating Dupree on so many fewer theatres/screens is impressive. I doubt either will have any legs given all the openings next week.
POTC seems fine for $400 but I guess the coming weekdays and weekends will finally give us a sense of how it will burn down. I guess it will go over $300 on Friday? Saturday?
Got to think if POTC can hold to a 50% declien next weekend that the comparison will be up again. Top 2 films last year did $54 million. With Monster House potentially going to #1 that would put the top 2 next weekend at over $60 million.
ANybody got a guess on where MH opens?
Posted by: Direwolf ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at July 16, 2006 10:59 AM
Is Monster House really getting that much buzz? I know it's a film for kids, but I can't see it making loads of money - it doesn't even look that fun to me.
Posted by: Aladdin Sane at July 16, 2006 11:19 AM
Opinions I've heard are mixed on Monster House... heard some raves but there is a bit of criticism that it's way too scary for younger children, which is not something parents will like when they have to take their kids out. I haven't seen it yet unfortunately, but I'm thinking it will do closer to Polar Express than Cars opening weekend.
Posted by: EDouglas at July 16, 2006 11:44 AM
Up until this past week's media blitz, Monster House was tracking quite poorly. But remember, tracking figures for kiddie films are always too low and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Posted by: Wrecktum at July 16, 2006 11:50 AM
Kids love to be scared, and they're always more resilient than we give them credit for. If a movie like Monster House is scary but not gruesome, it'll play well.
I just saw Superman yesterday and am left with very ambivalent feelings. It feels like it was made by a non-believer-- that Singer just wasn't confident of which notes to hit. I'm not convinced that a sequel would be better.
Posted by: Eric at July 16, 2006 11:59 AM
Got to love how Disney tries to control the spin. Tis quote appears in a Reuters article on the weekend box office:
"Disney officials declined to predict the film's eventual total, but observers expect a possible third weekend at No. 1 as it nears $300 million. Some targets include $340 million, the studio record set by "Finding Nemo," and $380 million, the sum earned by last year's biggest movie, "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith."
Way to cool those expectations and set up PR down the road.
Posted by: Direwolf at July 16, 2006 01:22 PM
Actually, I think P2 should have no problem easily grabbing well over $6 million Monday -- that'd be roughly a 65% drop from Sunday (and it managed a sub-50% last Sunday/Monday). Even assuming a worse Sun/Mon drop this time around (55-60%), it should get around a $7.5-$8 million Monday. A small drop on Tuesday (say 5%) brings the Mon-Tues gross easily over $12 million.
PRADA should outgross SUPERMAN during these weekdays...
Posted by: Telemachos at July 16, 2006 01:27 PM
I saw Monster House last night at a sneak preview and it was sold out, the audience responded fantastically to it. The movie is the best thing I've seen this year, actually probably the most fun I've had at the movies since The Incredibles. I wouldn't be surprised if it's number one next weekend. Kids have been waiting for something new and animated since Cars, about a month and half ago.
Posted by: the keoki at July 16, 2006 03:21 PM
Taken from BO MOjo....
On Saturday, Sony ran 702 sneak previews of Monster House and reported attendance at two thirds capacity, 80 percent of which families. Bruer noted that the computer-animated feature will be released at about 3,300 theaters next weekend, including over 160 three-dimensional presentations. "I think we'll open in the mid-$20 million range, hopefully," Bruer said.
I think 20 mil is a loooooow number.
Posted by: the keoki at July 16, 2006 04:26 PM
i believe monster house is quite expensive, so mid 20 opening would be seen as low. Maybe it will stick around for awhile like Polar Express and slide into 150 mill range.
Posted by: martin at July 16, 2006 04:34 PM
Dave, bring back the BO predictions that you used to do on Fridays. The blog is a perfect place for it. C'moooonnnnnn. C'monnnnnnn. i'll keep going if you don't start doing em again! You could do a little talking head feature every friday on that myspace for movies or whatever it's called. C'mooooooonnnnnnn! I want to know what you think Monster House is going bring in next weekend. C'mooooon!
Posted by: the keoki at July 16, 2006 05:15 PM
Only 160 3D locations? I heard early estimates a lot higher than that. Clearly Sony had some problems converting screens.
Posted by: Wrecktum at July 16, 2006 07:41 PM
I GOT IT! I finally realised what Monster House keeps reminding me of. ..."Goosebumps"! The "Goosebumps" books by RL Stine. Totally. Why didn't I see that before?
So funny seeing that Prada will overtake Superman next weekend (and during the week probably).
Interesting to think what Little Man or You, Me and Dupree could've made without the other one in cinemas. How bizarre though to think that Little Man made more money than White Chicks. And while Chicks was absolutely awful, it at least had a funny premise (BECAUSE THEY'RE BLACK! AND NOW THEY'RE WHITE! And white people are stupid, you see) Little Man just looked horrible.
Nice to see Cars still hanging around in it's sixth weekend. How come nobody mentioned that it overtook The Da Vinci Code this weekend? Also, this was at Box Office Guru "Cars is running 6% behind the pace of Pixar's last film The Incredibles after the same amount of time, but is 3% ahead of the company's Monsters, Inc. Those pics ended up with $261.4M and $255.3M, respectively." interesting.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at July 17, 2006 01:07 AM
Disney's gonna grab the #1 and #2 spots this summer. Not too shabby.
Posted by: Telemachos at July 17, 2006 10:49 AM
A Scanner Darkly’s $5460 per screen on 216 screens is not going to inspire a lot of exhibitors to book it into a lot more screens.
#10 nationally for the weekend, $5863 per-theater average. AMC and Regal will play "Scanner" wherever they can -- I guess Mr. K forgot about AMC's new arthouse-friendly policy.
An Inconvenient Truth continues to chug along . . . as it continues to slowly expand.
"Truth" is playing in smaller markets now that it's coming off screens in bigger cities/suburbs. The UA East Hampton dropped "Truth" to pick up "A Scanner Darkly".
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey at July 17, 2006 03:27 PM
"#10 nationally for the weekend, $5863 per-theater average. AMC and Regal will play 'Scanner' wherever they can -- I guess Mr. K forgot about AMC's new arthouse-friendly policy."
How many of those AMC locations playing "Scanner" are ex-Loews theaters? The two places around me playing it are ex-Loews houses, and art houses to boot.
Posted by: Blackcloud at July 17, 2006 04:49 PM
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