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Is a $200 million opening weekend within the grasp of the third film? With the way this one ends, I can only see it generating even more excitement than this one.

Is it physically possible to have a $200 million weekend? It doesn't seem like you could get enough screens in the crowded late May of 2007.

There is no doubt in my mind, now, that Dreamamount is now going to move that Shrek 3 release date, to avoid the Pirate rush on its second weekend.

The film has an outside shot of breaking $400 million, since the upcoming competition isn't really that tough.

No one seems to be noticing, but Cars seems to be holding pretty well. Hell, it looks like it could have a shot of getting an upset for #2 movie of the summer, slightly passing the fading X3. $235 mill sure looks like a possibility, right now.

unless they had a shitload more screens, i can't see a movie hitting 200 million in 3 days.

Word of mouth has been really good on this. Once again, showing that critics and mainstream audiences are so out of sync it isn't even funny.

Say what you will about critical response, most people found Superman Returns really boring, and i havent heard anything other than 'good to great' from moviegoers on Pirates. No one felt let down by it.

Previous $100 million openings had total gross ranging from 2.3 times their opening weekend (X3) to 3.5 times (Spiderman). That would create a range of $300 million to $462 million for POTC2.

Of all the rest the top 10 this weekend, only SR fell more than 50%. Very good. And as Geoff noted, Cars has good legs. Still 12 days until another animated film comes along. Enough time for Cars to get over $220 million. I've got to think it will hang around long enough to pass X3 which seems headed to $235 million or so.

What? There was a movie about pirates that opened this weekend?

The last time we saw a May like 2007's scheduled to be...

X2: X-Men United | $85.6m | $214.9m | 5/2
Matrix Reloaded | $91.8m | $281.6m | 5/15
Bruce Almighty | $68m | $242.8m | 5/23
Finding Nemo | $70.3m | $339.7m | 5/30

That's $315m in openings and 1 billion, 79 million dollars in grosses. Split that 3 ways instead of 4 ways and add 10% for evolution and all three films can come ouy happy. But if I were Pirates, I'd be looking at June 15, unworried about Fantastic 42.

When you say evolution do you mean 'inflation' or 'increased front-loading'?

If I were Pirates I would stay at the Memorial Day slot. If it is ready I would move Shrek 3 to the Ice Age March/April slot. Ice did 68 mil and Shrek would do at least 20 mil more than that. I wonder when will it get to the point when studios realize that there is a year long market and they are just cannabilizing themselves.

Also, I would move Oceans 13 to the Shrek slot. It skews older than Pirates or Spidey, it has longer legs than most sequels, it would benefit from all the pub it would get during the May sweeps television period.

Also, Has there been a better teaser trailer than Spider-Man 3? Of course, you could say that Pirates 2 was just a teaser for 3

More the latter than the former, but the evolution is more than that. Exhibition has also changed to make these mega-numbers more and more possible. People have gotten used to that first weekend push. Etc.

Shrek 3 will likely break the opening day record. Remember that Shrek 2 did $108 million.

If Shrek 3 beats Pirates 2 then it will get beaten by Pirates 3 the following week. I just don't think that there is much buzz about another Shrek. A teaser for Shrek 3(maybe an exclusive before over the hedge......might have added some coin to that flick) this summer would have kept it in the minds of the short attention span fan.

Remember that Shrek 3 opened on a Wednesday and pulled in that $108 million on its first weekend after getting $21 million on its first two days. As of now, it looks 3 will open on a Friday. DP had an intersting post theother day about how 4 of theprevious 5 $100 million openers came in May. More incentive for kids to pile in theatres since shcool nights during the next week are out. Also, less alternative entertainement options, vacations, etc in May.

I don't remember there being any buzz for Shrek 2, either. You don't always hear the buzz when it's coming primarily from the kiddies.

I don't think Spidey 3, Shrek 3, or Pirates 3 will movie. They are three of the biggest, swingiest dicks of all time. I do think Sony would be wise to not expect Spidey 1 numbers. I think they'll be happiest if they concentrate in getting something between Spidey 1 and 2.

Why would Shrek 3 move to the Ice Age 2 March/April slot? Do people still forget that Shrek 2 is the second-biggest grossing movie of all time?

I must admit it would be nice if Pirates 3 went up against Fantastic Four 2 and crushed it. Then again, Fox would probably blink and move it.

Ocean's 13 needs to be moved to late summer. It needs the Seabiscuit date. Or it should go back to its Christmas slot.

I was first stunned when I saw the weekend number this morning and then doubly stunned by Zinedine Zidane's red-card in the WC final. Wrecktum has been struck dumb by today's events.

Has any great player's career ended on a more shameful, inglorious, appalling, disgraceful, unexpected, and shocking note? Maybe Shoeless Joe Jackson's, but you're going back 90 years for that. Truly an act that will live in infamy. And to think people were comparing him to Pele and Beckenbauer as one of the all-time greats.

No essay, just random thoughts, almost free association...

Wow, Disney found an extra $3 million in relation to ShowbizData's Saturday estimate and Box Office Mojo's Saturday estimate... just enough for Pirates to cross $100 million in two days... imagine that.

All kidding aside, I'm curious as to what the numbers of tickets sold and the like are in relation to Spider-Man and Star Wars III. The $115 million Spider-Man number, adjusted for inflation, comes out to about $127 million, which is pretty darn close to the new number (although I agree with others above who think that Disney intentionally low-balled the Sunday numbers to make themselves look better later).

As some have said here (also), there is a ceiling in terms of tickets sold and seats filled. I'm also curious if anyone has capacity levels for Pirates 2. Despite the similar per-screen averages and inflation-related numbers in regards to Star Wars III and Spider-Man, I read and heard of far more reports of mass-sellouts all around the country. I have a friend who spent an hour on Friday in line to buy tickets for Sunday. Point being, I haven't read about this level of sellouts in a long, long time.

As for Shrek 2, there was so little buzz that I almost thought that the film was going to flop. Especially after it earned a mere $11 million on its opening day (about on par with Pokemon The Movie). Of course, most of the country didn't know it was out on Wednesday, forever screwing up pattern analysis for Wendesday openings for everyone.

The amazing thing is, despite these giant numbers, in all liklihood, the film won't surpass the four day total of $159 million of Star Wars III (it'll have to set a Monday record of $27 million to do it).

The real long-term test will be next weekend (in an equally shocking story, happy people smile more). Word of mouth hasn't been very useful as the word is all around. No one really hates it, but a lot of mild satisfaction (or mild dislike). Of note is the effectiveness of the last 10 minutes (SPOILERS AHOY!)...

Even people who were less than pleased with the whole film were completely riveted by the last 10 minutes, concluding with rapturous applause when Barbosa showed up (which I found odd... I didn't think he was that memorable to a teenage audience and I can't imagine anyone was clapping for 'that guy from Shine!').

Point being, people left the theatre revved up which could cloud their judgement of the rest of the film. It was certainly a more satisfying cliffhanger than The Matrix Reloaded (although I found that to be a better film), even if it falls short of my all-time favorite cliffhanger: Back To The Future 2 (also a lesser film, but I still get chills when the delivery guy shows up in the rain).

I'm curious as to what word of mouth of fellow readers and their peers have been. I'll save my thoughts for another post as this is already too long.

Scott Mendelson

Zidane is the best player i've seen in my lifetime. Be a shame if that headbutt is what he's remembered for.....

Exit polling has been about the same as the original, with 92 percent giving it "Excellent" or "Very Good."

Cinescore has it with an A- rating.

Box Office Mojo has those numbers, by the way.

Scott, that same report I quoted says it had just "a hair" more admissions than Spider-man did (about 20 million) so even adjusted for inflation Pirates beats it a little.

Too bad about Zidane. Really dumb move. I recall he has a hot temper from the last World Cup. Got to be happy for the Italians though. Their society has such flair. It is nice to see them get to enjoy themselves. The partying in Italy will be much better than it would have been in France, Germany, or Portugal.

Using Mojo's average ticket price inflation adjuster of $6.40 for 2005, $5.81 for 2002, and assuming for 2006 the average ticket price is $6.60, POTC sold 20.0 million tickets vs. 19.8 million for Spiderman, so at least in the current era, this is an all-time opening weekend adjusted for inflation. Sith would be about 19.4 million tickets sold.

Pirates word of mouth being positive must be related to the fun-ness aspect. Did I think it was a 'good' (i.e. sensible plot etc) movie?...not really. but fun? Yes. Love Depp? Yes! Yes! On the FUN basis it will make a fortune. I didn;t pre buy and I got in. Yeah it was full.

Stranger with Candy was the 'better quality' script of the weekend with garage sale grade production costs (compared to pirates) which added to its charm. Actually the best bit was the filming done inside the Bronx jail. But one does have to be a fan of Sedaris & co to really love it I spose, since it's nuts.

Don;t get me started on Zidane. he may have well lost the match for France that buté imbécile.

Having partied in all those aforementioned countries direwolf, the Italians aren't better at it than any other country--they all have fun parties post-match play sometimes even if they lose.

You got me there, Lota, because I have never partied in any of those countries. Just going by reputation. My son did get a call from a good friend who happens to be in Italy at the moment and he said, "the ground is shaking."

The ground is always shaking dude. Italy is one of the very few countries in Europe that has active volcanoes!

Man I hope they don;t set them off with the seismic concussions of partying.

That could be Michael Bay's next stoopid blow-em-up movie...PARTY VOLCANO..a Michael Bay film. [as long as I get 10% of post talent-ripped budget]

tagline # 1 "whoops, there goes Naples!"

It's the disaster you'll lava.

I really hate you right now Palmtree.

The crazy thing that got me both times I saw POTC thur night and today was the reaction to the Tranformers Teaser

in that both audiences went crazier for it then the Spidey 3 trailer, not to mention lots of people eyeing the poster in the lobby

and the "a michael bay film" emblazed below the text seemed to make them giddier

so look out sequel city

Bay needs Transformers to be a hit or his A-list career would definitely be in jeopardy.

An audience more excited about Transformers than Spider-Man 3 is counterintuitive to me. Was this a theater in a comic-book store?

lol

jeff I find it very hard to believe. I don't buy it. And who still gets excited when they see "A Michael Bay Film?"

I still don't buy the fact that audiences react SO MUCH that people can get even a decent read out.

"in that both audiences went crazier for it then the Spidey 3 trailer," to me, that sounds like the whole cinema went "OMGWEHAVETOSEETHAT"*orgasm*, instead of a few people around you going "hmmm, that could be good" which is what most normal people do after seeing a good trailer. And the fact that it was to the Transformers teaser which has about 1 frame of footage, makes me even more skeptical.

Soccer - Italy are ridiculous. I can't believe more people were upset over their wins (not the final, but the games throughout) as pretty much all of them (including their laughably refereed game against Australia) were won because an Italian fell happened to fall over if someone so much as breathed in their vicinity.

And don't even get me started on the umpiring of the World Cup. They'll give a foul to anything if your country is in Europe/South America. Anywhere else you don't belong there and you could get run down with a falklift and you still wouldn't get a free shot.

What was the Zenedine guy thinking when he headbutted that Italian in the chest? That didn't seem thought out at all.

And on Pirates of the Caribbean - Well done, is basically all that can be said. The largest opening weekend of all time belongs to the sequel of a film based on a Disney theme park ride starring Johnny Depp as a fey pirate. Whod've thunk it after Spiderman 2's opening that THAT would be the one to beat it. Crazy.

People laughed when they saw the Transformers title unfold during the teaser. This was followed by a second one when it revealed that it was directed by Michael Bay.

I bet it's a Godzilla-level disappointment.

I don't understand how in the world Transformers managed to stake out the July 4th weekend during a summer with tons of blockbuster sequels. It's a film with a VERY heavily male-skewed target audience (what girl will want to see this film?), and I'm not even sure it has any sort of lock on teens, either (as a teenager, would you get excited about a movie that's essentially bringing a toy line to life?) So it is a film that will be missing women and young adults in its audience make-up, in all probability. I think Disney may do some reshaping and reshuffling of their release plan for Ratatouille and Pirates 3 to where At World's End usurps the Independence Day weekend. Transformers is just [i]screaming[/i] August release to me at the moment. What's worse is that they're not making this film for kids, who are probably the #1 audience for something like this. I just think this film is a marketing disaster waiting to happen, unfortunately. I loved the Transformers when I was a kid, but only a miracle by Bay could save this one, in my opinion. I hope he pulls it off, but I have huge doubts.

It's giant robots fighting each other, and Michael Bay might have found the one movie for which his particular "talents" are suited. Count me in!

Did anyone else notice the sky on Mars was blue in the trailer?

David -

Today Scott Bowles has a sidebar on Pirate's success -

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2006-07-09-pirates-sidebar_x.htm

"Analysts say that one of the keys to Pirates' success was that, in a summer rife with over-hype and blitzkrieg marketing, the Johnny Depp adventure had a comparatively understated campaign."

Depp was on the cover of several major magazines, as was Keira Knightley. Does that count as a part a studio's marketing campaign? Depp is usually press shy, but he's been out there a lot, on the talk-show circuit etc.

In my Sunday paper last week, there was a poster inserted for PotC:DMC that was like a mini-one sheet. There was not one for SR the weekend before.

Anyway, just curious about your thoughts, unless you're burned out on this topic.

The Pirates campaign was much more understated than say, Superman Returns or X3.

Pirates and Da Vinci Code had a very similar campaign. You were aware it was coming, but you didn't feel weighted down by it. Because the campaign hinged on Captain Jack, and revealed very little of the story, viewers felt as though they were experiencing something new, rather than seeing a rehashed piece of shit like SR.

perception is everything. Just look at Kong. Underplay your hand, you can take the whole pot, show your hand too early, and chances are you won't end up with enough chips to win.

Dude, if M. Bay is directing TRANSFORMERS, then his A-list career is ALREADY over.

Maybe they could work Zidane into TRANSFORMERS. Now THAT would be a fight!

Wolfie -

It's absurd.

Star Wars had a relatively "low key" campaign, but was still EVERYWHERE.

Pirates is a franchise that sells itself. All marketers can do is to fuck it up. And as you can see from the materials, all Disney did was get out of the way and run almost the same exact campaign as the first film.

But the idea that Disney didn't spend and promote as aggressively as on any film they have ever had is silly. Cars was more low key.

Ang -
Pirates and Superman really benefitted from Kong because journalists felt burnt on that when they got caught grossly overstating.

And even today, you'll notice a distinct lack of talk about Titanic numbers for this movie. It's not because journos got smart. It's because once bitten, twice shy.

P.S. The Bowles story did hit on something I was going to write about in THB today, though I got sidetracked by Shyamalan.

The marketing strategies have changed a lot lately. More on Wednesday.

Record for single Day gross:

*Pirates of Caribbean: Dean Man's Chest.

*includes $9M from shows that were actually shown at one minute past midnight the previous night. Previous record holder Revenge of the Sith also cheated by including $16M from midnight screenings.

If these midnight screenings count towards the next day's total, how come they only count for that one opening day? All other screenings after midnight will count on the previous days in later box office tallies.

Sorry, just a big pet peeve of mine.

Entourage Fans:

Anyone else think this is one of the shortest times a TV show has become dated by real world events? Wonder if they might go back and dub in the actors saying "DEADMAN'S CHEST" (can't do the whole thing - have to match the three syllables of "SPIDER-MAN")?

For those who don't watch, the second episode of the this current season (which aired only 3 weeks ago) called "One Day In The Valley" revolves around whether the fictional characters new movie of AQUAMAN will beat the $114M of SPIDER-MAN to set the new record.

Which it does, which leads to him getting onto the A-list.

"Entourage" episodes have a shelf-life of approximately nine seconds, since they're comprised almost solely of "inside" Hollywood references and tits. They're gonna age worse than "Will & Grace" reruns.

It's funny if the rest of Entourage's season is about what happens after Aquaman broke Spidey's record and now Vince has to go do a sequel.

It's a shame you don't enjoy the show, James. But then again, I did preface my post with "Entourage Fans."

It's alot more than inside baseball references and nudity (thought the sex has gotten more graphic this year - writing which probably sent a few readers off to order HBO); Jeremy Piven is pure fucking gold. It was never meant to be more than an amusing triffle.

And part of the attraction for it I think is that it is so topical. Even the restaurants they go to are probably going to be dated within a year or two.

Just got the actuals in for DMC: $ 135,634,554 - absolutely amazing.

But I just heard last night that Michael Bay is directing Aquaman 2...

*cough*

Entourage is enjoyable as "Men as boys" type story. But let's be honest, real guys like this aren't "fun" or "amusing", they're obnxious jerks. I've met a few in my short time out in LA...and frankly, the show is the male version of "sex in the city". kinda-sorta reality based. But it's more of a fantasy.

they do have some funny zingers though.

"Pirates 2" opened in the UK day-and-date with US/Canada despite the World Cup final. That means 6 territories opened day-and-date -- 3 English-speaking and 3 Pacific Rim.

The Devil Wears Prada remains interesting. A lot of urban multiplexes seem to have the movie on two screens this weekend.

Just go to Manhattan: "Prada" is on 3 screens at the AMC Empire, 3 screens at the Regal Union Square and 2 screens at the Loews Lincoln Square. Only appropriate as that pic leans upmarket.

Don't forget "Clerks 2" on 7/21; the Angelika in NYC played the first one in '94 and is scheduled to open the second one.

Also of note: "A Scanner Darkly" starts its national release Friday -- it opened strong opposite the World Cup and "Pirates 2".

"Maybe they could work Zidane into TRANSFORMERS. Now THAT would be a fight!

ROFLMAO Cadavra!

Do Transformers have yellow and red cards?

In a former life did you know that Zidane was an Australian locksmith?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3RYHKWXIwI

Actually, he used to play Homer Simpson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q73Cdmdpb8E

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