The Hot Blog

OT, but over $3 million for Borat on Monday. That is very good.

This is a weird year. I'm not getting a vibe from any single movie as being "the one" -- something that stands head and shoulders above the crowd as a movie primed for the Best Picture crown. "The one" may not always be the best movie (obviously), but it's something that's Academyesque enough that its crowning seems inevitable.

American Beauty had that air about it. Chicago had that air about it. So did Return of the King. For the last two years running, we had two that gave off that "the one" aura.

This year, is there anything? If Dreamgirls is as good as the hype, it'll have retroactively been "the one" all year. But both this year and last year, we saw pre-release "the ones" fall by the wayside, one after another, after opening weekends.

If Dreamgirls follows suit, that leaves, to my mind, zero "the ones" for this year. The Departed or The Queen or something will win seemingly by default. Does any 2006 movie besides the still-unknown Dreamgirls have the same feel as any of the last five Best Pictures did? Strange year.

Gotta agree with Sam on this year's race lacking, "the one". It seems like Flags of Our Fathers is hanging around simply because no one has any clue as to what else to put in its place.

And if Cars wins Best Animated Film, then I'll stick a fork in my eye. Okay, that's too extreme, but I'd be disappointed. I'd rather see A Scanner Darkly win, flaws and all. Of course, it'd be a miracle for it to be nominated.

Let's have a Monster House victory over the tired Cars, the first Pixar to disappoint me. Still, Brad Bird's Ratatouille is going to blow the house down, believe me.

Yeah, unless Dreamgirls is a lot better than its trailer makes it out to be, I'm not sure anything will have a "the one" feel to it. Then again, if the critics awards all start falling on one film (for The Queen would be my guess), that'll end up being "the one," the way Sideways and Brokeback were. Doesn't say much about a win, though.

I liked Over the Hedge better than Monster House, but they were both better than (yawn) Cars.

And, it looks like this will be one more year where the film I think should win (United 93) won't even get nominated for BP (like Eternal Sunshine and In America in previous years).

It helps the weak contenders that it's been a lackluster year in general.

Isn't Happy Feet going to go up in the polling once it comes out? But yeah, I'll take Monster House or Over the Hedge any time over Cars.

FLAGS will fade away pretty quickly. It is highly forgettable. Better off reading the much better book it is based on.

My guess is Little Miss Sunshine will rise in the Top 5. Very likable and, though seen as an "indie", it's just as mainstream as most comedies. Children of Men or United 93 I think could take it. Maybe WTC could surprise us all. The Good German I'm seeing this Sunday.

If Scorses wins for "The Departed" it will get rid of all doubt of just how silly and irrelevant this award show is.

I wouldn't write off GOOD GERMAN just yet. You can usually expect Clooney and Soderbergh to come through, and this has the look and feel of something special.

OVER THE HEDGE is better than CARS? Please send me a couple ounces of whatever you're smoking.

Anyone who saw Happy Feet knows that it's almost guaranteed to win the animated Oscar. It's like night and day. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see George Miller get nominated for his direction because it's an amazing achievement.

I can think of plenty of things to put into Flags' place... The Good Shepherd, Blood Diamond, Happy Feet, Little Miss Sunshine... of course, I've only seen the latter two, but I have a feeling the first two are strong, too.

Cars is unappealing to sad, cynical coasters, but it has a lot of resonance in the heartland. Doesn't bode well for oscar though.

Over the Hedge was so dull and disappointing. The caffeine bit with Steve Carrell was the only bit of the movie that was really memorable.

Monster House, while having a plethora of ten year old humor, was brilliant at being what it was, a pure jolt of family focused entertainment in the manner of Walt and classic fairy tales, meaning a lot of parents were pissed because it wasn't safe for five year olds.

Hopscotch, Children of Men isn't getting anywhere near Best Picture. For me it's the third best movie of the year so far (after Jindabyne and United 93) but in terms of Best Picture. Nope. Best Director? That's actually feasible. It's hopes lie in the techs - mostly cinematography. It doesn't have a traditional score either so it's not gonna hit there.

My predix for BP atm are Dreamgirls, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen and... I dunno. I'm thinking The Pursuit of Happyness, but I'm not sure. That one relies entirely on box office if you ask me. Babel doesn't seem well loved enough and I feel it's slipping, but we'll see in the next few weeks. Then there's the two Good films (A Good Year is null and void in my mind) or, quite possibly, Almodovar's Volver.

Flags of Our Fathers? I saw it last night. Jesus. That's quite possibly the worst editing job I've seen in a long time. Firstly, the whole structure is just confusing and unspectacular (we know who will and won't die) and it's just all over the place. And the ending is just like Return of the King. Everytime I thought it was going to end, that man who sat in the shadows a lot (why?) would start narrating some more. The scenes back in America were all boring. Lecture. Men introduced. Raise flag. Speech. Dude gets drunk. War scene. Yawn. And that ending was some of the most ridiculous over-the-top sentimantal pap I've seen in a long time. "You're the best father a man could ever have." I actually laughed at that bit. Sigh. I'm still very interested in Iwo Jima though, funnily enough.

I actually consider the structural problems of Flags to be the fault of the screenplay (but the editor should have been firmer with Clint for the movie's sake). But I liked the homefront stuff more than the battle stuff - it was more interesting.

Regardless of the name-calling, Cars was probably Pixar's weakest movie ever, or at least since A Bug's Life - poor characterization and story arc. Fried twinkies have resonance in the heartland as well, but they aren't good for you.

By the sound of the comments on this blog, it seems like no one has seen Dreamgirls. Why, then, is it being touted as a BP nominee? I didn't like the trailer at all.

oh for the last freakin' time - IT'S TOUTED AS AN OSCAR CONTENDER BECAUSE OF ITS PEDIGREE. ONCE IT'S SCREENED IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE CRAP, BUT THE OSCAR PREDICTION GAME IS BASED ON PERCEPTIONS, THEORIES AND GUESSES. IF EVERYONE KNEW WHAT EVERY MOVIE WOULD BE LIKE AND WHAT WOULD GET NOMINATED THEN THERE'D BE NO POINT GUESSING THE PREDICTIONS, WOULD THERE?!

Sorry bout that, but for christ's sake, we've gone though this enough times.

I think Cars will win by virtue of giving John Lasseter his due.

I also wouldn't write off CARS because its nostalgic subtext will ring true to the Academy's older voters. And no matter how good HAPPY FEET turns out to be, it's still a cute, wise-cracking animal tale, whereas CARS is sui generis.

Lasseter already won a special Oscar for Toy Story and an Animated Short Oscar for another film. It's not like he's the Martin Scorsese of animation.

Is it wrong to hope "Dreamgirls" bombs? The trailer makes the prospect of having to see this film feel like a chore. How about "The Departed" picking up steam as "the one?" It's a crowd favorite, a critics' favorite, has a revered director, and has shown great legs at the box office. It might even help us forget the injustice of what happened to "GoodFellas" at the Academy Awards. Overlooking "United 93" for a best picture nomination would be an injustice as well.

^^^That's kind of what I'm hoping, Jonj. Months of hype not apparently backed up by anything, coupled with stars I don't really care about (except maybe Foxx), coupled by Condon's okay-but-don't-care-if-he-ever-makes-another-movie directing record = big fat so what from me.

"It's not like he's the Martin Scorsese of animation."

That's true. Lasseter is an even larger figure in the CG animation world than Scorsese is in his domain.

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