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Those are all five day predictions for CS... and I can tell you now based on Weds estimates that I'm high on all of the new movies, especially Fountain and Tenacious D, but low on all the returning movies. Will probably be closer to $60 million five-day for Happy Feet which shows huge legs based on opening weekend WOM. Really bummed about The Fountain. I think it'll be lucky to end up with $6 million in its first five days.

HF and CR combined are matching last year's Potter film on a daily basis the last two days. Looks like we could get an up weekend due to breadth of product despite a tough comp.

You know, i've thought that given the lack of a truly massive Rings / Kong / Potter size event blockbuster this Christmas, that Disney have missed a trick in not making more of an effort to open Pirates 3 in the third week of december. They would have cleaned up. As it stands, Pirates 3 will open in May, not long after the new helpings of Spider-Man and Shrek, and there's going to be a bloodbath. I can't see at least one of those movies not underperforming, and i think it will probably be Pirates 3. The fastest-grossing movie ever it may be, but I and many others found Dead Man's Chest to be draggy, overlong and feeble, and it could be that audience goodwill is dented enough so that the third movie suffers commercially (both the third Back to the Future and third Matrix movies were, on reflection, better than the second but underperformed after mixed word-of-mouth on the second). So why Disney didn't push pedal to the metal in taking advantage of a wide-open field this Christmas for Pirates 3 is beyond me.

Wally, Pirates for Xmas might have been an OK idea, but recent back to back sequels like Matrixes and BTTF lost quite a bit on #3 when opening less than a yr later. You can be Disney analyzed these and others and decided another summer opening would bring in the bigger payload.

As far as the wed chart, my only analysis is that Deja Vu feels a bit on the low side, and Borat holding very strong.

Fountain is an art film with mixed at best reviews - real bad for box office.

Martin, also Pirates stands third and has Memorial Day weekend. So by not rushing and therefore hopefully producing a better movie maybe Disney feels it will be Shrek and Spidey that suffer as they burn out much of their business before Pirates appears. Then Pirates runs strongly until July 4th weekend and gets a final kick that holiday.

All speculation. We will nefer know what the right release strategy is for any of next May's big 3.

I think the summer release is probably the smarter choice. And since Pirates 2 made something like 1.1 bill WW, I don't think they're exactly shitting their pants (ala nikki finke) over this film. Even if its a modest disappointment in the US, it will do at least 3-400 int'l, so they're gonna be wallowing in cash no matter what.

Maybe not Bruckheimer & Co., but I'm sure more than one of the studios is wishing they had one of their big summer movies ready now to capitalize on the relative lack of competition next month.

The market will still be packed with many flicks fighting for screens this December, and Pirates is a pure Summer franchise.

We're all better for Disney holding off nearly a year. An after July 4th release would have worked again next year... If not for a angry teenager by the name of Harry.

I think people may be underestimating Eragon. Sure, it looks like shit, has an uncanny resemblance to Dungeons and Dragons, but there is still a strong fanbase built by the novel. Which isn't enough on its own, but should help push it.

It doesn't hurt that the plot is an almost exact ripoff of Star Wars ep 4, from what I can tell.

I know a couple of people who are really into Eragon and they are convinced the movie will do very well. I guess the books have a very large following.

Separately, I was looking at next June and it looks pretty crowded but I guess it is a always like that. Oceans 13, Evan Almighty, Ratatouille. I guess a lot is getting packed in ahead of Harry 5 which comes the after the 4th ofr July.

I love Dr Wally's concern that Pirates 3 is positioned improperly next year. He seems so worried, and then the other shoe drops: he disliked Pirates 2 quite a lot, so he secretly wants Pirates 3 to fail. Elsewhere on the internets this is called being a "concern troll."

The simple answer is that Pirates 3 wasn't finished in time for December. Hell, it'll barely be finished in time for May.

God, could I be any more excited for Happy Feet? Way to go George Miller and co.

As I mentioned on my blog, Deck the Halls is essentially for people who liked the Christmas episodes of Home Improvement so much that they wanted to see it for 90 minutes.

http://www.tv.com/home-improvement/bright-christmas/episode/23130/summary.html?tag=ep_list;title;10
http://www.tv.com/home-improvement/twas-the-flight-before-christmas/episode/23081/summary.html?tag=ep_list;title;11
http://www.tv.com/home-improvement/twas-the-night-before-chaos/episode/23056/summary.html?tag=ep_list;title;11
http://www.tv.com/home-improvement/twas-the-blight-before-christmas/episode/23031/summary.html?tag=ep_list;title;11

I've had a delightful movie week (another thing to be thankful for: independant/artsy cinemas which show movies in their original language!)! Saw Scoop on Saturday, Little Miss Sunshine Tuesday and The Queen Wednesday... (and almost went to see Bond yesterday but decided it wasn't worth going out in the rain to see it in French)

I'm fully converted to the Little Miss Sunshine for Best Picture nod way of thinking... and I now see how Helen Mirren could beat Meryl Streep (unfortunately)... but I still don't get what's the big deal behind the Queen? Other than a few of the actors... sure the editing of original footage (that brought back memories!) with that filmed for the movie was very weel done... but unless you're into the British Royal Family in a BIG way I don't see that this is that great a movie... Of the 6 of us who went to see it 2 disliked it and the others were indifferent (but admired the acting).
As for Scoop... anyone else get the feeling they were trying too hard to be funny?

As for Pirates 3... it will be a blockbuster no matter what (or at least until Potter 5 starts up). Even the people who were disappointed in the 2nd will want to go to find out how Jack gets out of that mess and how the hell Barbossa survived being shot through the heart in the first movie...

I went to The Fountain tonight. I thought it was great. The Clint Mansell score was beautiful. Definitely one of the best I've heard all year. Hopefully he receives an Oscar nom for it. And hopefully it's less than 6 years before the next Darren Aronofsky film.

The couple in front of me got up and left after the opening sequence...sorta left me wondering if they actually watched the trailers, cos what were they expecting? Anyhow, I loved it. I can't wait to view it again sometime. Probably DVD, but it's worth the wait.

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