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January 13, 2007
Klady's Friday Estimates
I need to leave the computer right now, but I wanted to make this comment before leaving….
Today is the first truly bad day for Dreamgirls in terms of the movie’s box office and the awards race. To expand by 1000 or so screens and still be off from last Friday is not a great thing for the film. One could argue that it dropped a lot less than the other holdovers. But still, it can not be said that this is a banner day for the film. That said, it may recover over the 4-day weekend to do a reasonable amount of business.
As I have written for a while now in discussions about the box office and release pattern, the box office life of Dreamgirls is a big part of what will or will not make it win Best Picture. (And yes, I have always believed in the “win.”) And if the film does not continue to perform at a very high level, then it does become a multi-horse race and the dynamic changes… which is not to say that it won’t win in that dynamic. But quite a different kettle of fish.
On the other hand, if the film picks up this weekend and gets stronger in the next expansion, it should still win easily.
I didn’t want to leave it hanging out there all afternoon, lest I be accused of campaigning. And for those of you sick of the Oscar related discussion, sorry. Too bad it can't go on for another month! (ha ha)
Meanwhile, Stomp The Yard is looking a little softer than Coach Carter, but yes, another cheap cash cow for Screen Gems.

Posted by poland at January 13, 2007 11:17 AM
Comments
Anyone notice the screw up on the chart? I didn't know Happyness just came out yesterday.
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent
at January 13, 2007 11:20 AM
Wow, you just can't go wrong with those urban hip hop movies can you? And I'll bet they don't cost a fortune either.
Posted by: abba_70s
at January 13, 2007 11:21 AM
I thought Primeval might do better. I guess they kinda snuck it in there though.
Posted by: Eddie
at January 13, 2007 11:47 AM
I work in the biz and I've never heard of Stomp the Yard. Am I just getting old or is this weekend that pathetic?
Posted by: Wrecktum
at January 13, 2007 12:16 PM
"Am I just getting old or is this weekend that pathetic?"
Both? :)
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 13, 2007 12:25 PM
You're old, Wreck! They've spent millions and millions on TV buys, the ads have flooded the TV. All over ESPN, MTV, etc. You must live in a closet! (Or a theatre!)
Posted by: The Carpetmuncher
at January 13, 2007 12:51 PM
DG is going to depend a lot on the supporting actor awards and technicals...as for why the count was so low - almost everyone has seen it...I've seen it twice, I talked to a bus driver who's seen it twice and may see it a third time...so it's still in a "niche" market. The gays, African-Americans, black women are the niche market and almost everyone in that market has seen it. There's a lot of product out there competing and Notes on a Scandal, Children of Men are getting good buzz. That feel-good Holiday season is over.
DG will depend heavily as it always has on the 'buzz' about Eddie and Jennifer's performance.
is Monday a "day-off" holiday? I have to work. And what is frontloading? Thanks all.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 01:07 PM
Dreamgirls is already playing in its best theaters and clearly did not expand well.The film also should have expanded last weekend rather then wait for this weekend. Forget about Chicago. Dreamgirls is not going to catch The Departed (which returns to theaters this month).
Posted by: Roxane
at January 13, 2007 01:10 PM
"Stomp the Yard" is huge exactly where it needs to be. I teach 5th grade, and my kids have not stopped talking about that film since the new year. (I work in a minority area, it should be said).
Posted by: Josh Massey
at January 13, 2007 01:24 PM
I agree about the expansion, should have been last week. What to watchout for - does it have "legs" like the Pursuit of Happyness, which I'm surprised nobody is talking about. Got very long legs.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 01:33 PM
I really liked "Children of Men." It increased 300 theaters but fell almost 50 percent. With the buzz and all the talk surrounding the movie, I thought it would do a little better than that.
Posted by: Jonj
at January 13, 2007 01:35 PM
Sorry for the double post - but it seems that DG still has a high theatre per screening amount...that's encouraging. I'm a DG supporter, next the Departed, the others I'm not aware of.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 01:36 PM
Any chance Stomp the Yard cut into Dreamgirls' audience?...
Posted by: ivymike
at January 13, 2007 01:44 PM
Sorry for the double post - but it seems that DG still has a high theatre per screening amount...that's encouraging. I'm a DG supporter, next the Departed, the others I'm not aware of.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 01:45 PM
I wouldn't worry about Dreamgirls too much. It just got hurt by Stomp the Yard's opening in most of the same markets, and it's likely to hold up well next week after winning the GG for Musical/Comedy (of course, if it doesn't win that it's *really* in trouble).
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 13, 2007 01:46 PM
Ivymike - Good guess! I thought Primeval or Freedom Writers (a very good movie BTW) would cut into DG audience.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 01:47 PM
Hmmm, no Curse of the Golden Flower?
Theaters are packed with features at the moment. These flicks are fighting for every last screen.
Posted by: Tofu
at January 13, 2007 03:02 PM
I read somewhere that Curse ended up with around $500-600k for the day, so it will probably make around $2.4 million for the weekend, pretty much doubles its box office, but not great. Might do better if it gets the Oscar foreign language nod.
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 13, 2007 03:13 PM
Re. Curse: After The house of flying daggers and crouching tiger, do you really think there's much of an audience for those type of movies?
IMO, the general public feels - seen one seen them all.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 13, 2007 03:29 PM
"You're old, Wreck! They've spent millions and millions on TV buys, the ads have flooded the TV. All over ESPN, MTV, etc. You must live in a closet! (Or a theatre!)"
My primary excuse is that I haven't seen many TV ads at all since I got Tivo three years ago. And I haven't watched MTV since the early '90s.
Plus I live in a theatre. And I'm old.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at January 13, 2007 03:34 PM
I swear I'm not on a STUDIO 60 crusade, but has anyone seen even one review or piece of publicity for STOMP mentioning that Columbus Short is a regular on S-60 in a completely different type of role (low-key intellectual on the writing staff)?
Posted by: Cadavra
at January 13, 2007 03:46 PM
geez wrecktum, get out do some dancin' an steppin' with those calves of yours (isn;t wrecktum the one with calves?)
Stomp wasn't so bad, actually not bad for a dancin movie, most of which I dislike. It was cliche and been done before but it wasn;t too cloying and way better than You got served.
Posted by: Lota
at January 13, 2007 04:12 PM
well Studio 60 would might not draw the same crowd as Stomp, since Matthew Perry's Friends-ness might be held against him. I hold it against him, heh heh.
Posted by: Lota
at January 13, 2007 04:18 PM
Alpha Dog getting an unfair response by critics and the public. It's a surprisingly gripping telling of senseless crime that happened in braod daylight. I'm a fan of this subgenre. Call it Suburban Kids Gone Psycho. Movies like Bully, Better Luck Tomorrow and Alpha Dog show great skill in their examinations of stupidity. It's very tricky to show stupid behavior that casually leads to murder. Foster, Hirsch, and especially Timberlake give potent performaces. The scene of the actual murder has real power. It doesn't play for laughs or exploitation. Critics can be real smug when they try to show they're intellectually superior to the people portrayed on screen. Just because the characters do horrific and stupid things doesn't deny them their humanity.
Posted by: Jimmy the Gent
at January 13, 2007 05:57 PM
Stomp the Yard's performance is about a surprising as Scorsese receiving an Oscar nomination this year. These movies always do well.
Dreamgirls should perform strong throughout the weekend I think, especially MLK day.
Primevil has pissed me off. Because of it, Greg McLean's Rogue has apparently been pulled from it's release schedule. I'd much rather see Rogue (one of my most anticipated titles of 2007) than this dumbass crocodile movie.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at January 13, 2007 07:21 PM
"Primevil has pissed me off. Because of it, Greg McLean's Rogue has apparently been pulled from it's release schedule. I'd much rather see Rogue (one of my most anticipated titles of 2007) than this dumbass crocodile movie."
There's some weird irony about Disney rushing to get their crocodile movie out first, even though Rogue didn't even have a trailer, so it was kind of doubtful that it was coming out next month.
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 13, 2007 07:35 PM
I saw Pan's Labyrinth last night. Beautiful film.
That's all.
Posted by: Aladdin Sane
at January 13, 2007 08:25 PM
LOL! I hope y'all are watching Jake Gyllenhaal's monologue on SNL...there's some special irony for this blog. :)
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 13, 2007 08:38 PM
well Jimmy, I don;t know if it's smugness picking on alpha Dog. It seems to be a loosely "organized" movie based on disorganized people, all done in a very Serious way.
"Just because the characters do horrific and stupid things doesn't deny them their humanity." wouldn;t be easy for me to agree with. That is exactly the kind of people I wouldn;t mind denying humanity to. They waste themselves and drag too many with them the longer they live. I never felt enough character dev to care.
I remember there was a Detroit police chief who used to see "I'm always happy when assholes and bullets meet"
A fine sentiment.
I like Alpha males not Alpha Dogs. I couldn't warm to them or the movie style.
Posted by: Lota
at January 13, 2007 08:39 PM
I can't recall a more rancid and noxious time for movies than the one this Oscar season has inspired: "Dreamgirls" is only a movie for gays and black people; "Little Miss Sunshine" just rips off "Vacation" and if it wins it'll be the worst Best Picture of all time; "The Queen" doesn't belong in theaters cause its an uppidy TV movie; "Children of Men" doesn't have any depth and people are just creaming their jeans over camera tricks; Scorsese sucks worse than "The Aviator"; Eastwood's an asshole for posing a threat to Scorsese's Oscar; Helen Mirren's a bitch for winning everything; the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they're black; Peter O'Toole is getting screwed because he can't campaign; Peter O'Toole is getting an unfair advantage because he's too sick to campaign; "Babel" isn't worth nominating and it's stealing space from "Pan's Labyrinth" and "Children of Men" because the Academy doesn't want to nominate more than one mexican at a time.
And on and on this tabloid-style bullshit rolls until every movie-lover on earth has formed the most perfect circular firing squad. The Oscars have always been dumb, but this must the first year their existance was actually HARMFUL to the enjoyment of movies.
Posted by: Hallick
at January 13, 2007 09:10 PM
I think it's a pretty safe bet to say The Departed will win Best Picture. The dust is settling here on the Dreamgirls hype (as B.O. displays). When all the hype has died, The Departed will be all that's left, no matter how bloody.
The Globes will reinvigorate the blandtastic Dreamgirls, and much to the supposed "gurus" surprise Babel will not win Best Picture - Drama. Though these same gurus are saying the same thing I have since mid-September, THE DEPARTED WILL WIN BEST PICTURE. The 8th or 9th best Scorsese picture will triump!
Posted by: JeffGP
at January 13, 2007 09:14 PM
I've been watching the Oscars for a long time, and I just don't see Departed getting the big win. Dreamgirls is the clearest "Academy" movie, with Queen, Babel, and LMS a few steps behind. Departed perhaps even behind those. It will pick up Director likely and possibles like Actor, and Editing. If Departed wins, it's because the field of choices is so b-level competitive that votes will be very thin.
Posted by: martin
at January 13, 2007 09:26 PM
How many people are aware of this:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PCxQVMVX_y0
Very strange indeed.
I'm actually predicting The Queen to take BPD at the Globes, just like The Hours. Scorsese will take Director and Dreamgirls BPMC.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at January 13, 2007 10:11 PM
"If Departed wins, it's because the field of choices is so b-level competitive that votes will be very thin."
You hit the nail on the head there. That is the motive behind my words. I think The Queen is more than b-level, but too small... and British.
Posted by: JeffGP
at January 13, 2007 10:26 PM
IMO, the general public feels - seen one seen them all.
Posted by: Chicago48
Oh, if the only general public ever felt that way.
Was anyone surprised that Children of Men was more uplifting than Curse of the Golden Flower?
Posted by: Tofu
at January 14, 2007 12:08 AM
A question for KamikazeCamelV2.0: What was on that youtube posting? When I went to check it out it had already been removed at the request of Paramount. I'm curious.
Posted by: Jonj
at January 14, 2007 03:29 AM
"You hit the nail on the head there. That is the motive behind my words. I think The Queen is more than b-level, but too small... and British."
Moreso than Shakespeare in Love? Now who was the studio who released that one again?
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 14, 2007 04:50 AM
I just wanted to express my happiness with Casino Royale finally surpassing Die Another Day on Friday as the biggest Bond ever domestically.
Now one of the best Bond movies has finally surpassed the absolute WORST Bond movie ever on all fronts (no words can truly express my loathing and hatred for DAD).
Posted by: ThriceDamned
at January 14, 2007 05:50 AM
To Hallick: "the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they're black" -- NOT FAIR. J-Hud gave a fabulous breakout performance considering she'd never done film before and Eddie Murphy was the scene stealer.
"Peter O'Toole is getting screwed because he can't campaign" - I never liked Peter O'Toole. In fact a lot of these Brit actors are overrated, including Richard Burton and Lawrence Olivier.
"Peter O'Toole is getting an unfair advantage because he's too sick to campaign" please god, don't let Peter O'toole be a nom.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 14, 2007 06:09 AM
What's hurting DG boxo: Bootleg copies are everywhere. I'm telling you I've met more people who tell me they have either a studio copy or a home-made copy. If you go to Youtube you can see practically the complete pic...too bad that the studios can't put a stop to bootleg.
I just think this is a slow season and in Chgo/midwest, we have a storm coming, so people are going to stay home. We've been blessed with good weather until today. The whole boxo will be down because of weather.
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 14, 2007 06:12 AM
Chicago: You may have a point. I am in Dallas this weekend, and they're worried about ice storms here. I can only imagine what the weather is like north of here.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at January 14, 2007 06:41 AM
As for Peter O'toole and his campaign - isn't it a little late, the nom ballots went out last week and he just now decides to campaign?
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 14, 2007 07:21 AM
I was aware of Stomp the Yard until I saw the chart and I'm not old. I need to watch TV.
Posted by: ployp
at January 14, 2007 07:23 AM
Me too.
Posted by: Direwolf
at January 14, 2007 07:38 AM
I meant to say...
I saw Pan's Labryinth last night. Beautiful film.
---Aladdin Sane
Me too.
Posted by: Direwolf
at January 14, 2007 07:40 AM
A Strictly Subjective Question:
Would you say Pan's is better than The Devil's Backbone?
Why?
Posted by: Ju-osh
at January 14, 2007 08:39 AM
I finally saw Pan's last night as well, and it's a fucking masterpiece. Ju-osh, it's silly to compare the two films, but I think it's safe to say that The Devil's Backbone was a warm-up for this, which is easily del Toro's most completely realized vision. I've never been fully on the del Toro bandwagon - it always seemed like his imagination and storytelling skills were fighting for supremacy. But here he's finally found a way to seamlessly weave the two, and it's akin to watching a young, talented baseball pitcher, who you always knew would accomplish great things at some point, finally emerge and and toss a perfect game. Beautiful, beautiful film - best of the year as far as I'm concerned.
Posted by: MarkVH
at January 14, 2007 08:50 AM
I like The Devil's Backbone better... Pan's Labyrinth looks better and is a better production, but I like the story and characters better in DB. It really feels as if it's set during the times whereas Pan's really feels like a movie.. both are great, but DB is one of my all-time faves and Pan's is just an amazing achievment in terms of the filmmaking. (I think DB made me a fan of Del Toro, either that or Blade 2)
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 14, 2007 09:11 AM
Adding to the above statement, the first time I went to see DB, I had almost no expectations except from the trailer, while I had HUGE expectations for PL and though I've seen it three times, it's still not my favorite movie...just too dark and too many unoriginal ideas in terms of the fantasy.
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 14, 2007 09:12 AM
I think that The Devil's Backbone is a wonderful film, and I've seen it a few times. I've only seen Pan's Labyrinth once, and I'm feeling that I prefer it to DB. Of course, we'll see what repeat viewings are like.
I was worried when I saw Pan's, because of the months of hype since Cannes. I knew what happened, thanks to some jerks online who didn't put up any spoiler warnings in comment sections on blogs (it was probably here), so I was worried the overall impact may be lessened. It wasn't.
Not sure how many original ideas are left for fantasy Edouglas. There are usually only new ideas for telling old stories...Del Toro breathes new life into them.
I'm gonna try to see it again next weekend though. It definitely is something I want to catch at least once more on the big screen. Can't say that about most films these days.
Posted by: Aladdin Sane
at January 14, 2007 09:48 AM
"To Hallick: "the black actors might win a bunch of Oscars just because they're black" -- NOT FAIR. J-Hud gave a fabulous breakout performance considering she'd never done film before and Eddie Murphy was the scene stealer."
Totally not fair, but it was in the air for a while. I was just listing a sample of the carnage in this "my film's the best and all of yours SUCK" season. But it was probably still unfair for me to throw that one out there since I haven't heard anything that over the top for a few months (now it's just "Dreamgirls is only making money off black and gay people").
Posted by: Hallick
at January 14, 2007 12:20 PM
"Not sure how many original ideas are left for fantasy Edouglas."
True. I felt the same way when I read the first Harry Potter book and saw the movie, so it's a tough sell for me. A good ghost story on the other hand.. I'm there.
Posted by: EDouglas
at January 14, 2007 12:49 PM
"And if the film does not continue to perform at a very high level, then it does become a multi-horse race and the dynamic changes… which is not to say that it won’t win in that dynamic. But quite a different kettle of fish."
Kudos to you, Dave, for emphasizing the degree to which the race is decided by shifting dynamics more than anything.
Posted by: qwiggles
at January 14, 2007 08:26 PM
Jonj, it was the "And I Am Telling You" sequence from Dreamgirls. There was also "Dreamgirls", "Listen" and "One Night Only" that I could see on there, but I'm sure there were others. They were from a DIVX copy of the movie because it had the little logo in the corner.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at January 15, 2007 05:01 AM
Someone's still making DivX discs?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at January 15, 2007 12:18 PM
"Someone's still making DivX discs?"
I dunno, but that logo is in the corner of all the best pirated(?) Korean movies on YouTube.
Posted by: Hallick
at January 15, 2007 12:52 PM
Jeff, you might be thinking of the Circuit City-backed DIVX format that died a quick, deserved death. Those were the discs that you bought for four or five bucks that could only be watched for a certain amount of time.
I suspect Camel was talking about the DivX video codec, which seems to be the format of choice for the BitTorrent-using pirate crowd.
Posted by: Eric
at January 15, 2007 01:03 PM
Somebody just posted on IMDB boards that they asked for DG tickets and were given Stomp the Yard tix. They reported it to the Usher and had the tix rewritten.
Conspiracy?
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 15, 2007 01:16 PM
Hmm..sorry if this is a double post --
On the IMDB boards someone just reported they and a group asked for DG tickets and were given Stomp the Yard tix.
Conspiracy?
Posted by: Chicago48
at January 15, 2007 01:18 PM
LOL.
And, yes, Eric is right about DivX
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at January 15, 2007 07:36 PM
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