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February 26, 2007
Just One Guess
I really don't want to get into next year's awards yet. (This has not stopped me from talking to some reporters about it.) At some point, one has to stop complaining and just hold back.
Also, next year is no clear read. Movies like Che' (Episode One) could arrive... or not. Movies like Sweeney Todd could deliver... or not. Strong foreign directors like Suzanne Bier could become strong US-studio film directors... or not. And veterans like Mike Nichols could be unstoppable... or not.
So...
Just this.
I believe now that Johnny Depp is a 95% bet to be nominated for Best Actor as the title character in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street in a very, very crowded field of 2007 male movie performances… and an 80% chance to win.
Word from the set about his performance - from multiple sources - is excellent. He was nominated in the last two years before missing this year with the Pirates sequel. But the Pirates threequel is actually more a help than a hindrance. Huge box office power followed by an unexpected (though people have come to expect the unexpected from Depp) performance as the lead of a Grand Guignol opera… manna from heaven to Academy voters who are more than ready to deliver this guy an Oscar.
Leo will get one eventually for the right role. Mark Wahlberg is probably the next guy to become an “actor’s favorite” regular in races, even for less than Oscar-y roles. Ryan Gosling can probably have whatever he wants to have in this regard.
But Depp is like an aesthetic zit that actors are drooling to pop. To paraphrase what someone said, actors want to be him and actresses want to be with him, on screen and off. We’re a long, long way from The Ninth Gate and The Astronaut’s Wife.
The film can miss and Depp will still be nominated if he is any good at all. And it seems unlikely that he will be anything less than fantastic… which makes him the one clear frontrunner for 2007/8’s award season.
14% of the 20% of not winning is that there will be a film that comes along – none is clearly in sight right now – that will be overwhelming, have an overwhelming lead male performance, and will become unstoppable, turning Depp’s work into a “stunt” that can be overlooked in the finals. 1% is that Depp just isn’t that good. And 5% is just plain “other.”
Edie Murphy as James “Thunder” Early did stink of Oscar. And so does Depp as Sweeney Todd. The biggest question is whether he could sing the role. But everyone from Sondheim, who auditioned him, to everyone who I know of who has heard him sing this role, is “thumbs up.”
The reasons Depp is far more of a probable to win than Murphy are, a) it will be his third nomination, b) he is seen as an artist by almost everyone, c) he doesn’t carry any of Murphy’s baggage of being black, a comedian, 99.9% unavailable (Depp is at about 85%, though he is good at hiding in Europe and not making the press hate him for being unavailable), or a wearer of fat suits, and d) he is the lead, not a supporting actor, where quirky performances are more common.
And so, that is my one deeply believed projection into next year’s race. The rest, I would truly be guessing… even more than in year’s past. Even from this distance, you can see that the studios are not even making the big, obvious Oscar films for this fall. Perhaps the surprise appearance of one will be, like The Departed, a feature of next year’s race. Maybe not.
But for now, time to shut down my Oscar brain for a while. Time to consider what to do next season and not just how quickly it can be done.
Posted by poland at February 26, 2007 07:38 PM
Comments
Jeez, Dave, didn't you learn anything from the "Dreamgirls" fiasco? And yes...it became a fiasco. You helped turn it into as much by making baseless, too-much claims like this entire post.
But let's see:
"14% of the 20% of not winning is that there will be a film that comes along – none is clearly in sight right now – that will be overwhelming, have an overwhelming lead male performance, and will become unstoppable, turning Depp’s work into a “stunt” that can be overlooked in the finals."
Leaving out the absurdity of the percentages, the research this claim is lacking is staggering. "The Kite Runner," springing to mind first and foremost, could be one hell of a topical endeavor next year. This would especially be the case if things heat up regarding the situation in Iran, and sitting right there in the lead with a fine part is Khalid Abdallah, who got a lot of nice notices this year alone for the film you loved to hate: "United 93."
Beyond that, what about Joaquin Ohoenix in "Reservation Road?" This is a film that could be smallish enough to make a Best Picture play, and considering Phoenix was likely *this* close to a win just last year, it might be his day to shine. Perhaps the film itself won't match your definition of "overwhelming," but the film could do the job.
Regardless of that, why does the film have to be as "overwhelming" to take the lead actor Oscar away from somone like Depp? I don't recall "The Last King of Scotland" claiming nominations across the board this year...
Ironically, I'm predicting Depp for a snub in my year in advance article today, though I am barely predicting his film to slip into the big category. There really isn't a lot we can talk about, but the point is, posts like this prove that you just can't...call...things...locked. And if you proved you couldn't do that in DECEMBER of all months, you should at least understand you can't do it in FEBRUARY.
In any case, last note on "Che." Last I heard the film was called "Guerilla" and won't make it to release this year. Even if it did, calling Del Toro a "lock" as you did in the NY Post article is about as clumsy as calling the race Depp's to lose eleven months out.
Happy Oscar vacation.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley
at February 26, 2007 09:37 PM
I would certainly love to see Burton get a nomination.
Posted by: Brett B
at February 26, 2007 09:59 PM
Tim Burton's hair is looking very strong.
Posted by: prideray
at February 27, 2007 12:17 AM
DP, Sitekey sucks. Can you use someone else?
Kris, asking DP to stop prognosticating is like asking birds to stop singing. Plus, I like this idea because I love Depp. I don't see any Tim Burton movie being a real Best Picture contender, but Depp is certainly worthy of a statue.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 12:26 AM
Well, Kris... starting with “Ironically, I'm predicting Depp for a snub in my year in advance article today, though I am barely predicting his film to slip into the big category” kind of makes any argument here moot. How can you rage at me when you are predicting the entire field and I dared to make one call? And specifically, our takes may be opposing, but yours is certainly as extreme as mine. And far less based in any reality.
I will reiterate. The issue is not whether Sweeney Todd wins or is even nominated. The issue is Johnny Depp. No one else could have been nominated for Pirates. No one else – except a Hanks level Oscar bait star – could have gotten nominated for Finding Neverland. Johnny Depp just being Johnny Depp is a HUGE player in Oscar season. Please… research that.
Posted by: David Poland
at February 27, 2007 12:41 AM
Dave, Kris is merely predicting he'll be nominated but you're making it sound like you're going on the record and saying he WILL get nominated and that he's the best bet to win.
It's freakin' February!
As Kris said, one would think you'd hold off on the grand Oscar statements.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 27, 2007 01:13 AM
I meant he's predicting the FILM will be nominated.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 27, 2007 01:16 AM
"far less based in any reality"
I don't even know what that means.
In any case, my point isn't that one shouldn't predict from afar. How could it? I do a year in advance column every year. My point is chalking something up with a 95% "certainty," or worse, proclaiming "locks" this far out, as you did four-fold in that NY Post piece.
And Depp has two nominations. Two. Where was "Johnny Depp being Johnny Depp is a HUGE player during Oscar season" for the fifteen plus years prior? You make him out to be weaving roles into film awards gold like he's hitting double digits or something.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley
at February 27, 2007 02:20 AM
Way too early dave...critics are already talking Chris Cooper for an Oscar in Breach...way too early dude...BTW, did anyone know about this? I'm astonished!
"The bad news is you can lose the presidency of the united States even when you win the popular vote. But the good news is you can get an Oscar with fewer people than fit on a subway train.
"There are three categories in the Oscar voting that require a special ballot," says an insider. "To vote for foreign, short film or documentary, you have to sign an affidavit that you have seen all the nominees." it's not enough to watch them at home on a dVd - Academy members have to attend an official screening.
The snitch said fewer than 300 people requested the special ballot in the documentary category, which was won by Al Gore's "An inconvenient Truth" Sunday. But even that number is about 100 more than usual. An Academy rep confirms that of its 5,800 voting members, only about 200 typically file a ballot in the category." After reading this, I have no faith in the Academy Awards voting process - ever again.
Posted by: Chicago48
at February 27, 2007 03:25 AM
I really think there should be a mandatory universal hiatus on talking about next year's Oscars until October of this year. Most of the reason why so many journalists are burnt out on the whole thing is because of those who decided to spend the entire year going on about so-and-so or such-and-such being a frontrunner, which is why when so many categories were locked months in advance, it wasn't nearly as exciting when they won. 20 Weeks to Oscar is reasonable, 51 Weeks to Oscar is not. (Of course, some exceptions are The Envelope and Oscarwatch, which are all about the awards, but if bloggers can't figure out what else to wrie about, maybe they should take a week off)
Posted by: EDouglas
at February 27, 2007 04:07 AM
"Kris, asking DP to stop prognosticating is like asking birds to stop singing. "
It's more like birds asking *other* birds to stop singing. I'm starting to think that journalists should be forced to actually SEE a movie before they can declare its Oscar worthiness. There's a novel idea.
Posted by: EDouglas
at February 27, 2007 04:18 AM
Wait, I thought Meryl Streep isn't doing Sweeney Todd anymore. You confused me, Dave.
Posted by: waterbucket
at February 27, 2007 04:39 AM
Wow! I thought everyone was going to take an Oscar-obsessing break (weren't you supposed to be off on vacation Kris?) and disappear / calm down for a while! What's the point getting riled up again just days after the Oscars???!!!
I agree with EDouglas "I'm starting to think that journalists should be forced to actually SEE a movie before they can declare its Oscar worthiness."
Here's another novel thought: people, just go out and ENJOY the movies!!! You'll get more out of them than wracking (not sure how to spell that, sorry!) your brains about their "oscar-worthiness" before they've even hit the screens!
And a question for any of you who check in before 2:30pm ET ('cause I'll be heading out of here then): my local movie theatre is doing a preview tonight of 5 films in original version (i.e. English) and I still haven't decided which one to see!!! (there's a high probability that I'll be stuck seeing the others in French, if at all). Only two of special interest: The Fountain and The Painted Veil... Opinions / reccommendations are appreciated!!! (since I've come to respect the opinion of most of the posters here over the past year) ;o)
Posted by: crazycris
at February 27, 2007 05:23 AM
And I tend to agree with Dave that Johnny Depp looks like a highly probable candidate this year... add to the Sweeny Todd role another fabulous and fun turn as Captain Jack Sparrow (without whom those movies would have just fallen flat)... if the Academy still works in "his turn", then it's Depp's!
Of course all this is highly speculative... hopefully there will be dozens of fabulous performances to choose from! May we be so lucky! ;o)
Posted by: crazycris
at February 27, 2007 05:27 AM
I've always thought the year-in-advance speculation is kind of fun--and it is also a way of putting some movies on the radar, that would otherwise not be talked about. Hot Fuzz for best picture!
Posted by: Kambei
at February 27, 2007 06:38 AM
Daniel Day-Lewis is playing a turn of the century oil tycoon, and you're still riding the popular musical-to-big screen equals Oscar train? That's so 2002. The Producers for Best Picture, right? Oh, and Tim Burton hasn't made anything close to great in a very, very long time. In fact he has made a bunch of boring bullshit, and has never been an Oscar draw in any way. Planet of the Apes, Big Fish, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Oh, gee, wait, he was nominated for an Oscar for Best Animated Picture with Corpse Bride. La di da. It has been over 10 years since he made Ed Wood, and rehashing some sillybeans musical is not going to win him or his cast anything.
Posted by: JeffGP
at February 27, 2007 06:54 AM
Depp hasn't done anything notable and edgy since Donnie Brasco...Leo DiCaprio (smart cookie) is taking over where Depp should be and getting the Oscar nods and working with killer Directors. Depp and Tim Burton - again! Weirdness - again!
Posted by: Chicago48
at February 27, 2007 07:39 AM
Burton gets WAY more credit than he is due on a number of his films which I think are good, but not GREAT. But I can't wait to see it. If Sacha Baron Cohen is good, expect a Supporting Actor nod.
There are two for this year I think has the bait.
Charlie Wilson's War - Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in a Mike Nichols film, co-starring Amy Adams and Phillip Seymor Hoffman. Written by Aaron Sorkin based on a great book. I'll place bets on that.
American Gangster - Denzel and Russell Crowe in a Ridley Scott film, also based on true story, written by Steven Zaillian. I bet it'll rock.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 09:51 AM
Hopscotch, do you remember last year? Do you remember the Fountain (Oscar!), do you remember Running with Scissors (Oscar!)...this is just too much my friend. Don't even think about anything until Cannes...however, I'm going to see 300, which is getting 100% critics ratings...I can't wait! Anticipation!
Posted by: Chicago48
at February 27, 2007 10:15 AM
e) Depp is generally well-liked. Murphy is loathed. Everyone was stunned when "shoo-in" Lauren Bacall lost Supporting Actress for MIRROR HAS TWO FACES, but she almost goes out of her way to alienate people, and thus it came back to bite her on the ass.
Posted by: Cadavra
at February 27, 2007 10:17 AM
Denzel Washington is playing the African-American version of The Godfather (more or less). That's about as juicy as oscarbait roles get, imho. Unless Ridley Scott somehow makes one jumbled mess of a film (which I doubt he will), Washington is going to be gunning for Oscar number 3. Washington never drops the ball in an oscar calibre role (hell, he can even make roles that look less than oscar calibre on paper, into oscarbait--ie Training Day), so if Steven Zaillian's script for American Gangster is as good as I've been led to believe, Washington should easily give one of his more iconic performances. I think Crowe will also be outstanding (and may be put in supporting to avoid vote splitting with his co-star), but Washington's character is more fascinating for Oscar purposes.
At this moment in time, sight unseen, I think Best Actor '08 will be between Day-Lewis and Washington. These guys never get "filler" nominations (ie Depp in Finding Neverland, who stood zero chance of actually winning). Whenever Day-Lewis or Washington get nominated, they tend to be frontrunners good enough for the win.
There are too many variables against Depp for him to be such an early "lock", for even a nomination. For one, many consider him miscast as Todd, and he might prove to be. Secondly, his singing might not impress critics. Thirdly (and most likely), Burton will make a botch job of the film, and Depp's performance, good bad or average, will go down with the movie. Sweeney Todd could easily be another The Libertine.
Posted by: houmas
at February 27, 2007 10:28 AM
Denzel Washington is playing the African-American version of The Godfather (more or less). That's about as juicy as oscarbait roles get, imho. Unless Ridley Scott somehow makes one jumbled mess of a film (which I doubt he will), Washington is going to be gunning for Oscar number 3. Washington never drops the ball in an oscar calibre role (hell, he can even make roles that look less than oscar calibre on paper, into oscarbait--ie Training Day), so if Steven Zaillian's script for American Gangster is as good as I've been led to believe, Washington should easily give one of his more iconic performances. I think Crowe will also be outstanding (and may be put in supporting to avoid vote splitting with his co-star), but Washington's character is more fascinating for Oscar purposes.
At this moment in time, sight unseen, I think Best Actor '08 will be between Day-Lewis and Washington. These guys never get "filler" nominations (ie Depp in Finding Neverland, who stood zero chance of actually winning). Whenever Day-Lewis or Washington get nominated, they tend to be frontrunners good enough for the win.
There are too many variables against Depp for him to be such an early "lock", for even a nomination. For one, many consider him miscast as Todd, and he might prove to be. Secondly, his singing might not impress critics. Thirdly (and most likely), Burton will make a botch job of the film, and Depp's performance, good bad or average, will go down with the movie. Sweeney Todd could easily be another The Libertine.
Posted by: houmas
at February 27, 2007 10:29 AM
Denzel Washington is playing the African-American version of The Godfather (more or less). That's about as juicy as oscarbait roles get, imho. Unless Ridley Scott somehow makes one jumbled mess of a film (which I doubt he will), Washington is going to be gunning for Oscar number 3. Washington never drops the ball in an oscar calibre role (hell, he can even make roles that look less than oscar calibre on paper, into oscarbait--ie Training Day), so if Steven Zaillian's script for American Gangster is as good as I've been led to believe, Washington should easily give one of his more iconic performances. I think Crowe will also be outstanding (and may be put in supporting to avoid vote splitting with his co-star), but Washington's character is more fascinating for Oscar purposes.
At this moment in time, sight unseen, I think Best Actor '08 will be between Day-Lewis and Washington. These guys never get "filler" nominations (ie Depp in Finding Neverland, who stood zero chance of actually winning). Whenever Day-Lewis or Washington get nominated, they tend to be frontrunners good enough for the win.
There are too many variables against Depp for him to be such an early "lock", for even a nomination. For one, many consider him miscast as Todd, and he might prove to be. Secondly, his singing might not impress critics. Thirdly (and most likely), Burton will make a botch job of the film, and Depp's performance, good bad or average, will go down with the movie. Sweeney Todd could easily be another The Libertine.
Posted by: houmas
at February 27, 2007 10:29 AM
For whoever asked, I saw Painted Veil and thought it was pretty average. The Chnese countryside is the star of the movie. Amazing to look at but I didn't care for the love story all that much and didn't see anything special from Norton. He is good as always but not at the next level. The score is good.
Posted by: Direwolf
at February 27, 2007 10:38 AM
Apologies for the triple posting. My computer must be schizo or something.
Posted by: houmas
at February 27, 2007 10:42 AM
I predict that Brad Pitt has an 81% chance of winning for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford... but that judgment is based solely on actually having seen the film.
Posted by: Edward Havens
at February 27, 2007 10:55 AM
How is it Edward? I can't wait.
Having spoken to some co-workers who work in production, Brad Pitt will have a long ways to go to win an Oscar. He has the worst repuation about being difficult on the set. Other actors like him, but all the other professionals hate the man. He is loathed.
I've read the screenplays for CW'sW and American Gangster and they were both good reads, capable of being very good movies. I agree with David that the script and the film are two entirely different things. All I'm saying is there is definite potential for them to be great.
and Youth without Youth could be great too.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 11:21 AM
I predict that Jesse James has a 127% chance of getting shot in the back by that Coward Robert Ford...
Wow, people are already hyped for next years Oscars!?!?!
I haven't even spent my Oscar pool winnings yet!
Posted by: The Carpetmuncher
at February 27, 2007 11:43 AM
"Depp hasn't done anything notable and edgy since Donnie Brasco."
In this period Depp has made Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, Sleepy Hollow, Before Night Falls, Blow, Pirates of the Caribbean, Finding Neverland and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Not all four-star masterpieces, but all good and interesting performances from him.
"It has been over 10 years since he made Ed Wood, and rehashing some sillybeans musical is not going to win him or his cast anything."
Obviously you don't know much about Sweeney Todd. This is to musicals what Macbeth is to dramas - something intense, bloody, tragic, and deranged. I don't know if Burton will be able to make it as darkly adult as it needs to be, but he has a pretty good shot at it, even if Planet of the Apes sucked and Big Fish was overrated.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 11:48 AM
Kris - I can't vouch for the quotes in Lou's piece, really. Every once in a while a 30 minute conversation gets edited into some line said in the most casual context that is somewhat misleading.
He also has me saying that Meryl Streep is playing Mrs. Lovett, which I may well have said amongst the half dozen times that I said, "Mrs. Burton"... a slip of the tongue ends up being what is printed.
I have to own that fuck up, even if it wasn't what I meant.
But again, the point of the NYP conversation... the center of it... is that it is way too early to look at Best Picture for next year. And that the one thing I feel definitively, based on on-set reports, the role, and his status in town, is that Johnny Depp is going to be very, very hard to beat next year. And I am comfortable standing by that. And there are 7 or 8 major candidates for Best Actor that you can already list pretty definitively – some of whom will fall by the wayside with others likely to be added - whereas all the other categories are major question marks.
To be clear… I haven’t said that Sweeney Todd or Helena Bonham Carter will be nominated. This Hot Blog piece was about Johnny Depp. I haven’t said that Charlie Wilson’s War will be nominated. I haven’t made charts of any of the categories. I have in the past and made a conscious decision not to do so this year. Not only do I think that this is a very rough year for projections, but I think that, as I stated earlier, if one wants to stop the madness, one has to show some restraint. My first charts will probably hit post-Cannes... and as always, they will be sketchy.
It’s all very nice to say, “Wait until you see the film,” Ed, but the machinery starts long before we will see the fall movies. And as I note quite specifically each year, there are posts on this track. The end of Cannes marks the end of the first eighth mile. Toronto gets us to the quarter mile. First week of November is the half mile. December 12 or so will be the three-quarter mile marker. Nomination morning is the mile. And the finish line is just a quarter mile from there.
At least one studio is already telling everyone what they have and how they see the race. And at least a few consultants have already been signed for next fall’s films. There will always be Rents (candidates that turn crap) and there will always be A History of Violences (candidates that aren’t well positioned), but the business of those movies being positioned is real – much more so than the aesthetic judgment of them – and covering that process is a part of my work.
Finally… There is a huge difference between talking about The Fountain, which was always dicey and had a star who has never been nominated or even been in a film that had been nominated for anything but effects, and talking about Tom Hanks in a Mike Nichols film.
Posted by: David Poland
at February 27, 2007 11:53 AM
"“Wait until you see the film,”
Considering that plenty of the Oscar voters don't why should we?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 12:00 PM
a more topical thread would be how much 300 makes next weekend, or Zodiac this weekend? Because I don't have a frickin' clue on either. sure both look like they have a key dem sizeable audience, but how much more. Sin City had a known director and actors. 300 has neither and looks pretty gay. Fincher's movies have always had stars in them, but not Zodiac (Gylenhall is in that vague area of "recognizable actor" but not really a star yet, or do we disagree on that?).
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 12:13 PM
Jarhead opened fairly well, but should Gyllenhaal get any credit for that? As much as I loved the books and am looking forward to the movie, I can't imagine Zodiac packing them in this weekend. I think Wild Hogs is going to be big. Recognizable stars and a trailer that seems to be really pleasing the masses.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at February 27, 2007 12:22 PM
A Chorus Line?
Phantom of the Opera?
Rent?
The Producers?
I think there will be a big backlash against "Sweeney Todd" because Depp and Bonham Carter will be viewed as too young for the roles, and that huge area between the two coasts is not as crazy over Sondheim as some would think. (Have we forgotten Elizabeth Taylor in "A Little Night Music"?)
If they had gone with Kingsley and Streep, I would be eager to see it "Sweeney Todd."
Too many of us suffer from the "Because It Could Happen, Then It Obviously Will Happen."
How many of us felt certain that there would be lots of nominations for "All the King's Men," "The Human Stain," "Jarhead," "Sylvia," and so many others? What looks great on paper and in a 2007 prediction list doesn't always look good on the screen.
Right now, I'm thinking about Michael Caine in "Sleuth" and Marian Collilard as Edith Piaf.
Posted by: adorian
at February 27, 2007 12:55 PM
"The end of Cannes marks the end of the first eighth mile. "
I'd really be curious for someone to write a piece looking at the Best Picture and acting races from the last few years to see how much of this is really true. I think Toronto's a pretty good indicator as is the NY Film Festival (The Queen, Little Children, Babel, Pan's Labyrinth and Volver all played a one or both)... but Cannes? That's in the middle of May and there's been so little to play there that really popped. If anything, that's been the place where the snobbish French critics have trashed many chances by booing perfectly decent films.
Posted by: EDouglas
at February 27, 2007 12:57 PM
Jesse James is a near-perfect movie, but I was only being sarcastic about my earlier post. The film is actually Casey Affleck's, and there is a decent chance people will start knowing who he actually is once this thing comes out. There were a few walkouts at the screening I went to last night, people probably frustrated with the exacting pace of the film (note I didn't say slow or boring, which Jesse James is most certainly not), but this film deserves to be at the top of the list for anyone's consideration. I don't do Oscar predictions and I hate critics who use that type of lazy shorthand to get their feelings across. I don't know how "done" the film is, but the film I saw last night will likely stay on the top of my personal Best of 2007 list for the rest of the year.
Posted by: Edward Havens
at February 27, 2007 01:31 PM
Oh, and to answer EDouglas... I did look at the winners at Cannes and how they fared at the Oscars. The number of Cannes winners to get even a nomination at the Academy Awards in any category was so negligible that I had to also search Toronto and Venice to see how Foreign Language films fared just to make the time I wasted looking at Cannes worth some of the effort.
Posted by: Edward Havens
at February 27, 2007 01:37 PM
Thanks, Ed.
I do think we should learn something from "For Your Consideration"... well except that having a script before shooting a movie is often better than just winging it.
Posted by: EDouglas
at February 27, 2007 01:58 PM
Considering how Burton allowed Depp to totally misplay and misinterpret his Willy Wonka a few years back, I have no confidence that the director will be able to reign in the quirky actor's tendency to alienate himself from audiences.
Unless Burton's Sweeney Todd is magic (which I doubt it will be...Burton tends to flub projects that don't come originate in his own imagination) I doubt we'll see Depp's name mentioned as Oscar bait.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at February 27, 2007 02:06 PM
^^^Mostly disagree with this point, Depp's performance in Charlie was clearly a collaboration between Depp and Burton and not a director unable to 'reign in' his actor - Depp's Willy is another of Burton's many lost man-children. Disagree with the choice if you will, but recognize that that's what it was.
And:
'Have we forgotten Elizabeth Taylor in "A Little Night Music"?'
Is it possible to forget something you were never aware of?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 02:24 PM
The cutest thing about DP is what a sucker he is for musicals. Who knew?
I agree it's way too early, unless of course you have plans on sinking that ship.
Posted by: bipedalist
at February 27, 2007 03:25 PM
Sweeney Todd kicks ass. Best musical ever. Can't wait.
Posted by: The Carpetmuncher
at February 27, 2007 03:32 PM
The marketing behind "Wild Hogs" has been very effective. I'm a film snob, and I kinda wanta see it. I remember when I first saw the trailer, my friend sitting next to me (who's a bigger snob than I am) said, "I think I just laughed four times, I might have to see that."
After Saving Private Ryan and Catch Me if You Can, I was 100% positive a Hanks/Spielberg film could do no wrong. Yikes!
Depp/Burton has had some hits...and some misses, you never know. I just pray for better movies this year than last year.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 03:33 PM
I got news for you, Hopscotch. If you and your friend laughed four times during the trailer for Wild Hogs, you ain't a film snob anymore. Welcome to the masses, my friend!
Posted by: MASON
at February 27, 2007 03:48 PM
you've got a point there Mason. and my response to that is:
Maybe.
Maybe not.
Maybe fuck yourself.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 04:21 PM
Easy. I'm part of the masses as well. I love a good commerical flick.
Still didn't laugh during the Wild Hogs Trailer though.
Posted by: MASON
at February 27, 2007 04:30 PM
I just saw 'Company' the other night here in New York, and I gotta say...Sondheim is tricky. He's not for everyone. It's not accessible pop music that you can't get out of your head a la Lloyd Webber or Moulin Rouge. I've never seen Sweeney Todd but I hear it's great. We'll see. (Not a Burton fan at all either - love Depp but very skeptical of Burton).
Posted by: Breedlove
at February 27, 2007 05:09 PM
Oh my god, there are people on this board actually going to see Wild Hogs. Haha.
Posted by: waterbucket
at February 27, 2007 05:13 PM
I don't mind the dumb fun every once in awhile either, Mason. As long as it has some laughs that's fine with me...which leads me to "Clerks II", which I recently watched. WOW!!! Even on the dumbest scale possible this movie is just awful. I maybe smirked a laugh once. I just couldn't beleive how unfunny it was.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 05:18 PM
I didn't say I was going to see it, I said the "marketing was effective". on a plane maybe, on my couch if I'm beyond bored, possibly. but not in a theater.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at February 27, 2007 05:20 PM
^^That was my reaction to Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, aka the movie that made me realize it wasn't my fault that I didn't like Chasing Amy.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 05:22 PM
This is the start of the spin, BiP... has NOTHING to do with liking musicals. But if you need to play it that way, let the game begin.
Mostly, I consider your comment a very clever way of throwing out all the other arguments - which you can't argue against - and to diminish the idea without actually making any argument at all... just another cheap shot at me.
God help us all when Scorsese makes a/another musical.
Posted by: David Poland
at February 27, 2007 05:32 PM
Clerks 2 was really bad. Kevin Smith apparently would rather spend his time dissing or praising other movies than sitting down and really spending the time to write a solid script. You know, something that appeals to folks outside the View Askew universe. On one hand, I can understand why: what he's doing now, just being "Kevin Smith" is much easier and he'd be the first to admit how lazy he is. But on the other hand... well it's just disappointing becasue I thought he might have a couple good movies in him.
Posted by: MASON
at February 27, 2007 05:44 PM
DP, what Bip. said was hardly 'a cheap shot' unless you're expecting such. You, alone among the Oscar forecasters, have had a sweet spot for Phantom of the Opera, The Producers, Dreamgirls, and now Sweeney Todd. What do those all have in common?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 05:53 PM
Wow. Not only is nothing learned from the overdose of Oscar coverage which led to a "who really cares anymore" climax Sunday night, but Dave wants to start up again right now, in February, with movies that aren't even finished.
Clerks II is one of the best sequels ever made. I was gobsmacked.
I laughed three or four times at the trailer for "Wild Hogs" too. People seem to forget how great silly Hollywood movies like this can be (when they work). A good one is long overdue.
Posted by: Hallick
at February 27, 2007 06:38 PM
What, David, you didn't like NEW YORK, NEW YORK? One of Marty's most underrated achievements, even acknowledging that DeNiro was less than comfortable playing the light-comedy stuff.
I saw SWEENEY TODD in both of its Broadway runs (1979 and last year) and I believe that there is no better director for this material than Burton. And since Depp and Carter are both in their 40s, they are hardly "too young" for their roles. I don't know if it's going to be Oscar bait, but I'll be really shocked if it isn't tremendous.
Posted by: Cadavra
at February 27, 2007 07:05 PM
Just adding another voice to the chorus of people who were amused by the Wild Hogs trailer. There were more misses in it than hits, but nevertheless I laughed twice: when they cut to the kid raking Travolta's lawn, and when we see that Ray Liotta is apparently the leader of the rival biker gang.
I hope the movie itself has the same silly charm.
Posted by: Eric
at February 27, 2007 07:20 PM
I think I will see Reno 911: Miami and Blades of Glory and skip over Wild Hogs.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 27, 2007 09:51 PM
Could someone explain to me how Alexandre Desplat could have been nominated for the soundtrack on The Queen (which I didn't even notice during the movie, made absolutely 0 impression on me) instead of that fabulous score for The Painted Veil?!?! sheesh!!!
I seem to remember quite a few people raving about the Painted Veil a few months ago... I don't get what the big deal was! Yes, beautiful countrysides, lovely soundtrack, "serious" theme... but the love story didn't quite click (Norton was much more convincing in the Illusionist)... and that ending!!! :o( This is one story I think would have done better with a "happy" ending... Oh well! Still glad I got to see it in English instead of French! Here's to hoping the Fountain comes out in my local "arts" theatre (and therefore also in VO) instead of the commercial one.
To whoever was looking forward to Marion Cotillard in "La Mome", I'm getting quite a few excellent echoes over here about her performance! I hope to go see it sometime this weekend.
Posted by: crazycris
at February 28, 2007 12:27 AM
That was out of the blue. Anyway.
"After reading this, I have no faith in the Academy Awards voting process - ever again."
LOL. There are always people saying that (or a variation on it. "I'm never watching again because Best Sound Editing didn't go to the right movie!"lol)
Jeff, I thought I was the only one who didn't like Chasing Amy!
On the matter of Sweeney Todd. Burton can definitely work the goth-horror stuff (his last great movie was Sleepy Hollow), but I'm just not sure of his capabilities with the MUSICAL genre. They're a completely different beast. The main problem with Dreamgirls was the silly decisions made by Condon. And the fact that it's Burton + Depp + Carter again..? oy. He needs to start casting other people for a change.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 28, 2007 05:56 AM
Isn't that like Louis B. Mayer saying, "Cukor + Tracy + Hepburn again...? Oy!"
Posted by: Cadavra
at February 28, 2007 06:09 PM
Crazycris, I have no opinion on The Painted Veil since I skipped it, but the score to The Queen is excellent and should have won the Oscar this year.
Do people need to be reminded that Tim Burton produced The Nightmare Before Christmas and co-directed Corpse Bride, both musicals?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 28, 2007 06:22 PM
Cadavra, I don't exactly think Burton, Depp and Carter are quite Cukor, Tracy and Hepburn.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at March 1, 2007 04:32 AM
Cadavra, I don't exactly think Burton, Depp and Carter are quite Cukor, Tracy and Hepburn.
(I just saw what Jeff said and wanted to reply, so there'll probably be two replies from me. sorry)
I would hardly use those two films as demonstrations of Burton's ability. Just because someone directs (or in Nightmare's case, produces!) an animated movie, doesn't exactly mean they have the ability to direct a live action one.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at March 1, 2007 04:34 AM
Perhaps not, but that was just a random example of a director and two stars who made multiple films together with satisfying to excellent results. (I could just as easily have said Ford/Wayne/O'Hara or Wilder/Lemmon/MacLaine.) If the Burton/Depp/Carter combo is a winning one and the actors suitably fit the roles, why not?
Posted by: Cadavra
at March 1, 2007 03:32 PM
KCamel, you asked "I'm not sure of his capabilities with the musical genre" and I provided two musicals, one excellent, one pretty good, that he was involved with, to point out that he's not completely foreign to the genre.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at March 1, 2007 03:45 PM
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