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February 11, 2007
Sunday Estimates by Klady
Wow… haven’t actually paid attention to box office in any depth for weeks… fresh like daisy… well, almost…
Some of you will remember The Green Lantern, a DC superhero who charged his ring with a green light. The light would then give him his powers, but would also often form into a shape, like a sledgehammer, to crush his adversaries. And so, Norbit is Eddie Murphy’s green money lantern, as he responds to a recent wave by the lunatic fringe, journalists who attacked him personally for not giving them access to him personally, with his second best opening ever, second only to the Nutty Professor sequel. (Add the 2 Shreks if you must… but animation is in an odd side category to me… they count, especially when they sell the voice talent, but they count differently.)
This does not, however, mean that Norbit will not turn some Academy members off to a degree that will hurt his chances at winning the Oscar. It may mean that, indeed, with great success, the reminder of his bankability may enhance some voting interest in these waning days of voting.
Regardless, Murphy’s trifecta of Dreamgirls, Norbit, and Shrek The Third, which will mark three $100 million movies in six months, is a unique event. Ben Stiller did a somewhat more muscular version – albeit over a few months longer time frame and in more of a cameo in one - of it with Dodgeball, Meet The Fockers, and Madagascar in 2004/05. Will Smith did it with I, Robot, Shark Tale and Hitch in 2004/05. And Tom Hanks did it in about a year with Toy Story 2, The Green Mile, and Cast Away in 1999/2000.
This is, of course, when the bashers change the rules and start saying that box office doesn’t matter. These are the same people, mind you, who want to tell you that Dreamgirls - which is the fourth highest grossing musical in history in its first run, looking to surpass the combined grosses of The Phantom of the Opera, Rent, and The Producers in the next few weeks - has underperformed at the box office.
Any excuse to engage in self-aggrandizing personal attacks and make them seem “journalistic,” right?
I paid to see Norbit yesterday. And while it is not a great movie by any means, it is a lot more complex and comically traditional than the ads or the critics have suggested. More on that in a post later today.
Hannibal Rising proved, once again, that the new MGM has a hard time opening their fly to pee, much less a movie. Throw out the issue of whether the movie is good. Opening weekend has nothing to do with quality, now in the text message age, same as ever. But whatever they were going for – a sexy young Hannibal? – was not sold very well. It was as though they just threw it out there, expecting the character to sell the movie for them.
Word has it that MGM is about to make some big changes to their so-far unevolved marketing system. Right now, it’s neither fish nor foul, throwing (in a mix of clichés) good money after bad.
The $10 million opening of Clerks II was, until this weekend, the highpoint for Weisntein/MGM releasing… not just in spirit, but in actual dollars. $3 million more for the expensive (in rights dollars and opportunity) Hannibal is a bit of a disaster. Aside from that, NewGen MGM’s top opening to date was Rocky Balboa – the only one over $6m and change – with just $12.2 million. And that film got to a distributor-high $69 million. I believe that with enough interest to generate more than 5 times opening, any other distributor would have gotten the film to over $100 million.
There are some good people involved over there, but they need more muscle and some more experience in the trenches. The next challenge is the excellent, but hard to sell, Rescue Dawn, at the end of March. Then there is a weak Canadian comedy. And for some reason, the studio is throwing 3 films into the summer maelstrom: one a no-name romantic comedy with Robert Downey, one a Frank-Oz-with-no-name-actors comedy, and one a small Kevin Costner thriller, going out the week after Pirates of the Caribbean 3. Good luck there. (Baby needs a new write down.)
Anyway…
Because I Said So is a classic example of an underserved audience grasping at straws. The movie is said to be hideous, but women in search of something to see at the movies are going anyway and the movie is on track to crack $40 million, maybe $50 million, before it’s all over.
Pan’s Labyrinth is continuing to gather steam, as the audience expands past the normal foreign language base. By the end of Oscar weekend, there is a real chance that the film will pass Babel’s domestic gross. It’s already at almost two-and-a-half times Volver.
The Pursuit of Happyness may be the quietest $160 million in movie history. It’s already the tenth highest grosser of 2006 and is going to pass Casino Royale in the next few weeks. This little two-man movie has outgrossed all of the Oscar movies, including The Departed, by a significant amount as well as The Devil Wears Prada, Borat, and Talladega Nights. It’s not that Will Smith’s position as The Biggest Movie Star In The World is not an advantage, but the lack of respect shown this feat is similar to the lack of respect shown Tom Hanks’ Cast Away, which grossed $234 million in 2000 and is not remembered as the mega-hit it was, especially in light of the silent movie, adult-minded nature of the film. As so often happens, critics found themselves dabbing tears, which means that, somehow, the movie was tawdry, leading to the lack of media respect.
The Oscar BP nominees are bunched up in slots 11, 13, 15, and 17. None have found manna from heaven, but they have all done nicely for themselves, with Little Miss Sunshine the only one not in a real theatrical run right now.
The Queen is finally ready to crack $50 million, which is a huge success for that film in this country.
Letters From Iwo Jima continues to do the shite business that Warners always knew it would. Great arthouse movie. It would have done more if sold like The Queen, but the only reason to put the film in December was Oscar and Oscar they got nodded by. Watch the prognosticator inner wheels whirr into a comic blur if it wins the Oscar with under $20 million in the bank.
Babel cracked $30 million this week and will need to win Best Picture to crack $40 million… which might come close to covering 60% or so of the awards season budget.
The Departed has managed about $9 million in its 17 day re-expansion. And really, that’s pretty good considering they are advertising the DVD. And, children, here is more proof of the power of the theatrical experience. The economies of scale make the choice by Warners to use the DVD marketing budget as part of the Best Picture push makes perfect sense. On the other hand, they probably are throwing away another $20 million or so in theatrical revenues - $40 million in they win Best Picture – by pushing into DVD right now.
Searchlight continues to prove that acting nominations are not worth much at the box office, with Last King of Scotland and Notes on A Scandal combined still at less than half the gross of LMS.
Likewise, the creative and commercial car wreck that is Blood Diamond won’t hit $60 million, easily DiCaprio’s worst commercial outing since his return-from-titanic misstep in The Beach in 2000… again, in spite of two acting nods.
For all the media hype around Children of Men, the gross is still fighting to get to $35 million, proving again the impotency and contrarian nature of the movie media. Universal saw this coming and played the shot accordingly. I’m not sure that they didn’t make a mistake, however, by not pushing it out in October, where there was more room to breath. But in the end, it doesn’t look like it would have ever been a big grosser.
The question of why The Painted Veil didn’t find legs as an awards movies is easily answered by its $6.4 million gross. No one cared. And they continue not to care.
Likewise, Venus has found little traction. We all love Peter O’Toole. But to spin on the legendary Cary Grant quote, “How Old Peter O’Toole?” “Old Peter O’Toole Not Well.” No one really wants to witness that in a theater.
At the end of all of this, I look back at my box office writing and it makes me a little antsy. Money isn’t everything. But neither is it nothing. Ironically, The Academy Awards this year didn’t overlook the commercial options. They simply weren’t good enough. Really, Dreamgirls was the only commercial movie that came close and could have ridden the Best Picture wave to some greater success. The Pursuit of Happyness was the commercial movie that might have had a chance with some more time to settle in and Will Smith would be a much more serious candidate to win Best Actor with time and some more time from his schedule to appear here in L.A.
Is there a really good movie in the Top Five this weekend? No. But Pursuit, at six times opening, and Dreamgirls at seven times its best weekend, have audiences that have stuck with the films and kept coming. I guess one can also make the argument that Night At The Museum, closing in on 8 times opening, breaks that spell. But kids films… different animal.
And grosses by the Oscar paraders...
Title | Gross (average) | % change | Theaters | Cume
The Queen | 2.4 (1,550) | -7% | 1564 | 48.9
Letter from Iwo Jima | 1.7 (2,210) | 2% | 781 | 9.9
Babel | 1.7 (1,830) | 1% | 919 | 32
Notes on a Scandal | 1.5 (2,340) | -7% | 649 | 13.9
The Departed | 1.4 (1,790) | -40% | 766 | 130.8
The Last King of Scotland | 1.3 (2,440) | 2% | 540 | 11.4
Children of Men | .84 (1,720) | -29% | 489 | 33.9
Blood Diamond | .79 (1,750) | -12% | 451 | 55.1
Volver | .66 (1,260) | -12% | 525 | 11.8
The Painted Veil | .53 (1,9300 | 7% | 275 | 6.4
Happy Feet | .51 (1,060) | -10% | 483 | 193.3
Venus | .48 (3,610) | 27% | 132 | 1.9
The Lives of Others | .21 (16,380) | | 13 | 0.21
Posted by poland at February 11, 2007 12:13 PM
Comments
[Wow! am I first?]
"Letters From Iwo Jima continues to do the shite business that Warners always knew it would. Great arthouse movie. It would have done more if sold like The Queen, but the only reason to put the film in December was Oscar and Oscar they got nodded by."
Because of letters, which should have been released in 2007 it's regular schedule, DG was shut out of best picture. and Letters has won NADA, NOTHING! exc. the Globe award. I see Clint all over late night trying to drum up business and buzz, but it aint happening this year Clint.
Boo!
POH is the sleeper...and it should have garnered a best supporting for Jaden Smith - BTW, I'm on a campaign to have a "Breakthrough Best Child Actor" category at the Oscars. Don't put child against adult Oscar - don't!
Posted by: Chicago48 ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at February 11, 2007 02:07 PM
While you're at it, give us a "Best Ensemble" award so we don't have to get drowned in all of these ME ME ME showboating features in December.
And kill the best short ANYTHING awards.
Nice to see most of the contenders holding their own this season.
Posted by: Tofu at February 11, 2007 02:28 PM
This is wrong.
We can't blame MGM for the opening of "Hannibal Rising"
1. MGM only releases this movie in theaters. But this movie is marketed/promoted by Weinstein Co., not MGM, so Weinstein Co. can only blame themselves for the failure of "Hannibal Rising"
At least, MGM can still get 3003 theates to show this movie; they did well job to release this movie.
2. "Opening weekend has nothing to do with quality, now in the text message age, same as ever"
No for any movies.
For "Norbit", its target audience wouldn't be likely to read movie reviews. For "Hannibal Rising", its target audience do read the movie reviews.
Posted by: marychan at February 11, 2007 03:58 PM
I find my self agreeing with David today, which I'm perfectly fine with. I really don't think that the stupidity of Norbit is going to have much of an effect on Eddie's Oscar chances though, because I'm sure every single member of the Academy has at one point done something to earn a buck or because they knew it would make money. It just keeps Eddie in the limelight for two more weeks as they try to figure out who to vote for.
Heck, the fact that Helen Mirren is a frontrunner less than a year after having sex with Cuba Gooding Jr. in Shadowboxer shows how forgiving and forgetful awards can be.
Posted by: EDouglas at February 11, 2007 03:59 PM
Puh-leeze, Marychan... no one went to Hannibal (the last one) because of reviews. 37% on the Tomato Rating. $58 million opening.
Yes, there are other variables there. But HR was a straight horror/thriller sell... same as any Screen Gems movie, but with more history. And on that basis, this was a failure.
If they were making Hannibal Rising relying on critics, they wouldn't have made it at all.
Posted by: David Poland at February 11, 2007 04:02 PM
The only reason anyone is saying that Dreamgirls is 'underperforming' at the box office is because of how overhyped it was for months and months especially in terms of awards consideration. Take all of that away and it has done perfectly well for itself.
Hannibal Rising couldn't have cost too much - this opening seems on par with other horror/thrillers with no stars in it, I can't imagine they really expected it to do Hannibal '01 business.
Who's the second man in the 'two man show' that is Pursuit of Happyness, Jaden?
Posted by: jeffmcm at February 11, 2007 04:28 PM
Yes.
"For all the media hype around Children of Men, the gross is still fighting to get to $35 million, proving again the impotency and contrarian nature of the movie media"...so you're saying that the movie media's endorsement of "Children of Men" is a contrarian fraud? Couldn't just be because they liked the movie, could it?
"Rescue Dawn" got bumped. It's coming out at the end of summer.
Posted by: James Leer at February 11, 2007 05:22 PM
Dreamgirls opened with numbers that suggested more than it is likely to finish with. Yet if you said a yr ago that Dreamgirls would get 8 Oscar noms and make $110 mill, I suspect most would consider that good.
Posted by: martin at February 11, 2007 05:23 PM
The Weinstein Co. paid $0 to acquire "Hannibal Rising", so The Weinstein Co. will make profit on this movie.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i9c93a087253bf968176527d7994d786e
[The film was produced by Dino De Laurentiis and marketed heavily in the U.S. by the Weinsteins. Harvey Weinstein maintained the film, for which his company paid nothing upfront, will be profitable for the indie concern. "We are pleased with the release strategy for 'Hannibal Rising,' which will be a profitable film for TWC," he said.]
Posted by: marychan at February 11, 2007 06:48 PM
Doesn't part of the international sales go to Paramount?
Posted by: alero at February 11, 2007 07:00 PM
I think an underreported story recently has been how much power the African-American audience has in the film industry and how many of this year's succesful (in terms of bo) films target an urban audience...
*The biggest film of the year right now is Stomp the Yard which has exceeded expectations wildly with $60 million
*Norbit will likely knock Stomp from its perch, and could very well top $100 million(!)
*Dreamgirls is approaching $100 million
*Freedom Writers, a film about urban innery city youth has taken in $35 million, well above expectations
*Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls is tracking very well this week, especially since it has direct comp. in both Norbit and Music and Lyrics
Just thought Id throw all that out there....
Also Pan's Labyrinth may be able to top Amelie at the rate it is going. That would make it the 2nd biggest non-martial arts foreign language movie ever. (not counting Gibson's American flicks)
Posted by: EthanG at February 11, 2007 08:56 PM
Never said anything about fraud, Leer. Nor did I suggest that critical feelings were untrue in any way.
But the density and intensity of the wave was, yes, likely increased by the sense that it was a movie in commercial trouble. And you pulled one thing out of the context of the sentence. Impotency first... contrarian nature second.
But if you feel compelled to turn that into "fraud," I suppose it makes it clearer why you get so angry with me. You need to buy some gray, Leer. If I want to say "fraud," I am perfectly capable of writing, "fraud."
Posted by: David Poland at February 11, 2007 08:57 PM
Hang on, hopefully without getting drawn into this discussion, what does this mean"
"You need to buy some gray"
is this something the kids are saying? Like Ghost Riding the Whip?
Posted by: jeffmcm at February 11, 2007 09:17 PM
"And kill the best short ANYTHING awards."
Ugh. That's stupid. Why should they do that?
Hannibal Rising probably failed for a number of reasons. There's no Anthony Hopkins (despite what the advertising suggested), nobody's read the book, it looked like a silly teen slasher flick, it was a PREQUEL (why do they still make prequels? Nobody seems to go to them!) etc. Plus, was anybody else wondering why young Hannibal was french?
Didn't Blood Diamond open to, like, $8mil? If it did then $55mil is pretty darn good. It could have easily died after $30mil or less. I'm not defending the movie, but I bet the studio is happier with that total and five oscar nods. DVD awaits.
I saw The Last King of Scotland today. I was surprised to find myself actually really disliking it by the end. I just wanted everybody to stop screaming and to stop the editor from cutting so much and stop the camera was moving everywhere. Maybe it was the cinema I was in but god that score was so extremely overbearing. And the scenes at the end were just not pleasant. The whole experience wasn't pleasant. Whitaker was great though.
Strangely, I saw Breaking and Entering today as well and liked it much much more than I anticipated. It's a shame that movie's release was murdered. Law was the best he's ever been and it was a pleasure to see Minghella direct so intimately. Oh well.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at February 12, 2007 03:53 AM
I wasn't crazy about Scotland as a whole either, but Whitaker's performance is undeniably stirring and mezmerizing to watch.
The continue business of "Night at the Museum" is really amazing, I've heard it's awful, but man that is some cume.
I first saw the "Norbit" trailer in front of "Borat" and literally half the audience was laughing, the other half queezing. It's one of those movies I guess. And I'm sure teens thought it'd be funny. I'd rather gouge my eyes out.
Because I Said So, for even a dopey, stupid romantic comedy, was dreadful. I felt depressed leaving the theater.
Posted by: Hopscotch at February 12, 2007 12:22 PM
Yes, the box office leg of BLOOD DIAMOND is excellent. With foreign box-office and worldwide DVD sales, Warner should make profit on this movie.
Here is what boxofficemojo.com talks about it.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2248&p=.htm
[Meanwhile, the Academy Award-nominated pictures generally had minimal drop-offs, maintaining the same low levels as last weekend. Underrated among this bunch is Blood Diamond. After a soft $8.6 million opening last December, it's hung around despite severe theater losses and its total inched past $55 million, which is higher than the movie that nearly doubled its debut on the same weekend, Apocalypto. ]
Posted by: marychan at February 12, 2007 12:35 PM
Camel: Best Documentary Short Subject? Best Animated Short Film? Best Live Action Short Film?
Time and effort that could be used on other awards like ensemble, more animation nominations, more, makeup nominations, and more visual effects nominations. Three nominations per category in any of these fields is the real joke here.
If one is to praise Blood Diamond for legs, than one needs to praise Good Shepherd as well. Both averaged $4000+ per theater opening weekend, and both opening weekends only accounted for 14-16% of the final domestic gross.
Posted by: Tofu at February 12, 2007 02:58 PM
"Last King of Scotland" and "Notes on a Scandal" are playing megaplex/arthouse/upmarket, thus Fox has its bases covered. Same for "Iwo Jima" and WB.
Speaking of WB they are definitely throwing away theatrical revenue by taking "The Departed" to DVD so early. Regal Cinemas -- the largest US theater operator -- pulled the film chainwide this week because of the early DVD release.
As for "Venus"? It just opened in my area but I passed when I saw that the poster was name-checking a Julia Roberts movie.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey at February 12, 2007 02:59 PM
Chucky, you're a day behind schedule. What happened?
Venus is a pretty good movie and well worth seeing for Peter O'Toole's performance. Your insistence on judging movies by their marketing campaigns (or rather, by a single marketing trait) is lame-brained.
Posted by: jeffmcm at February 12, 2007 03:29 PM
"Time and effort that could be used on other awards like ensemble, more animation nominations, more, makeup nominations, and more visual effects nominations. Three nominations per category in any of these fields is the real joke here."
Make-Up - For this they need to realise that it's not just prosthetics, but actual make-up as well as hair. Why weren't The Devil Wears Prada, Marie Antoinette and The Queen amongst the semi-finalist?
Visual Effects - Three is sufficient. I mean, do we really want more movies like Poseidon to be known as Academy Award Nominees.
Animation - Okay, so this year there were fifteen Animated films released. Do one third really need to be nominated? No. Not at all. I mean, stuff like Shark Tale?! Ugh. This year there were probably four worthy of being an Oscar nominee (the three that were nommed and Over the Hedge). But if a field of 300 titles must be wittled down to five, why should a field of 15 too? That's crazy.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at February 12, 2007 11:38 PM
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