« End Of An Era? | Main | Greetings From Seattle »
August 25, 2007
Friday Estimates by Klady - 8/25
Not a very exciting weekend at the box office.
Superbad is holding ok, considering the First-Friday-to-Second phenomenon. Sony can be as precious as they like with this weekend’s spin, but the second weekend record for a movie opening the third weekend of August or later OR after August 15 is The 40 Year Old Virgin’s $16.3 million, which ever way you cut it. Given how Superbad played last weekend, maybe it will beat Apatow’s breakout film. Or maybe not.
The Bourne Ultimatum’s hold may be a sign of an otherwise weak action market and the adult audience just getting around to see one of the best films of the summer… or maybe Universal is making a run for the $200 million mark.
Mr. Bean’s Holiday, by the way, is around $200 million at the non-American box office, so let’s not shed a tear as Universal tips their hat to their partners at Working Title and releases the film here, knowing that there is a limited audience, much as there was for Wallace & Gromit.
War… what is it good for? Not absolutely nothing, but not enough to pull Lionsgate out of their tailspin that started in earnest with Eli Roth’s Hostel II. Don’t expect that 3:10 From Yuma is going to do the trick either. There are some ecstatic reviews for the film out there, but westerns are always tough sells and Crowe/Bale don’t exactly stink of box office at the moment.
Rod Lurie’s Resurrecting The Champ deserves better than to be nearly matched by a Universal dump of Illegal Tender. The Yari Group had a great success with The Illusionist last summer and they seemed sure they could do it again. Perhaps if Jessica Biel was in a corset in Denver, they’d have had a better shot. Of course, The Nanny Diaries had Scarlet Johansson and that didn’t take either… the scene of her vacuuming in a corset was desperately missing from the ad campaign.
The Invasion is making a late season run at being the biggest flop of the entire summer. Very impressive.

Posted by poland at August 25, 2007 11:38 AM
Comments
What a stinker of a weekend.
FYI, Ratatouille crossed $198m yesterday. It'll be at $200m by next weekend. Finally.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at August 25, 2007 12:18 PM
i'm still impressed with the performance of HAIRSPRAY. only down %22? and it constantly jumps up to the #5 position during the week...besting STARDUST, grossing more per screen than SIMPSONS, outpacing POTTER, CHUCK/LARRY, INVASION, etc. etc.
Posted by: seattlemoviegoer
at August 25, 2007 01:15 PM
I'm really puzzled why Yari didn't do with Resurrecting the Champ what they did with The Illusionist last year by opening it in limited/platform last weekend or this one and then open it wider next week over Labor Day, when there are a lot more people in theatres looking for something to see. Surely it would have built up enough word-of-mouth. I figured that $4 million for the weekend would be its ceiling but $1.5 million is embarassing, especially considering how much better it is than every other release this weekend (and yes, I've seen them all including War, Illegal Tender, etc)
I think $200 million is a given for Bourne unless it kills by the upcoming guy flicks (Halloween, 3:10 and Shoot 'Em Up). Pretty amazing summer for Universal, Evan Almighty aside, and I think they h ave the strongest fall line-up of any studio as well, at least in terms of quality films. (And if you combine them with Focus releases, it's pretty damn killer.)
Posted by: EDouglas
at August 25, 2007 01:37 PM
Yes, Dave... Universal HAS forced people to go see Bourne. They're "making a run for it." Or it could near-unamious critical praise and excellent word of mouth.
This movie will easily make over 200 million. "It's math."
Posted by: fnt
at August 25, 2007 02:16 PM
Apparently, Lionsgate looks to push Yuma with 9/2 sneaks. Doubt it'll do well, but at least it's a flick worthy of a push.
Posted by: William Goss
at August 25, 2007 03:33 PM
Yes, I remember this argument.
"It's math, fnt...
This weekend, $160m... next weekend, $175m... the next weekend, $183m."
When in fact it was &165...this weekend, $185...next weekend, $195....and then, $200 and still going.
And no pushing involved. It's just a great movie, and it's sticking around with no special treatment. It'll probably drop only about 30-32% this weekend.
Glad to see that Ratatouille will finally cross $200 by next weekend. A truly wonderful film
Posted by: ThriceDamned
at August 25, 2007 06:18 PM
The Nanny Diaries still doesn't have a date set for a release in Bangkok. I'll just have to wait. On the brighter side, there is a date for Atonement, albeit one in December. So, I'm waiting for Stardust (Oct. 4th), Becoming Jane (Sept. 27), and the Golden Compass (Dec. 6th). I envy people in the US!!
Posted by: ployp
at August 25, 2007 06:25 PM
Ployp - see Stardust. I haven't seen the other two, but that one is definitely worth the wait.
Posted by: Me
at August 25, 2007 07:58 PM
Why do people continue to expect good box office from Scarlett Johansson? What has she done to deserve that A-list status? Whoever managing her career is doing a bad job to position her as a sex symbol without any real role that might appeal to women. While she struts on the red carpet and tries to look sexy, it's women like Julia Roberts and Reese who really rule Hollywood. This is why I think Anne Hathaway is the true star in the making: harmless beauty in roles that women really love.
Posted by: waterbucket
at August 25, 2007 09:34 PM
Well, I think Nanny Diaries was supposed to appeal to women.
Posted by: Rob
at August 25, 2007 09:50 PM
I "predict" RTC could have been a Golden Globe type nominated made for tv film produced by a Von Zerneck Sertner type production company, or a profitable direct to dvd film.
Here's a coolsville review:
http://www.thereeler.com/reviews/resurrecting_the_champ.php#comment-170864
Posted by: T. Holly
at August 25, 2007 10:34 PM
I don't quite understand why the drama about a movie I raved and am happy to see succeed. Am I allowed to be wrong by $15 million on a movie without it being fetishized?
Posted by: David Poland
at August 26, 2007 01:04 AM
Waterbucket, I agree with you concerning Johansson, I don't understand why she keeps getting free passes all the time: PRESTIGE, BLACK DAHLIA, THE ISLAND, etc, as well as starring in three Woody Allen films, including an upcoming one (she's his new Diane Keaton/protege) *and* she gets cast in two high profile flicks as well: Polanski's POMPEII and THE SPIRIT.
Are there no more actresses left in Hollywood? She's like the female Josh Hartnett, no matter how many flops, she keeps getting work.
Speaking of Hartnett, did anyone think CHAMP wouldnt flop, irrespective of all the internet ads? The marketing was wrong for that flick, they should've sold it as a newsroom story a la ABSENCE OF MALICE and highlighted more of the supporting cast like Alan Alda in the ads, maybe then some of us adults would've showed up.
Posted by: Spacesheik
at August 26, 2007 02:05 AM
My apologies David, if it came across from my part as if I were making drama or rubbing your face in. Not my intention at all. The intent was to highlight how much better the film has been holding than most people expected, nothing more.
As for Johansson, I predict she's about two movies away from doing a much publicized nude scene in a heavy, unsexy drama to resuscitate her flagging career, ala Halle Berry/Monster's Ball. You read it here first folks!
Posted by: ThriceDamned
at August 26, 2007 04:02 AM
I think The Nanny Diaries was, in Scarlett's mind, the film that would push her into "she's a lovely gal" territory but something went awfully wrong. Plus, being distributed by the Weinstein's didn't help. They couldn't open an envelope at this stage unless it's scary (or scary movie). And even then...
The numbers for Bean's Holiday are, quite literally, just extra gravy for Uni to swim around in.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at August 26, 2007 07:04 AM
the numbers for Bean's holiday, to me, are spectacular for a movie with little marketing, a character whose popularity in the U.S. is nominal at best, and released in a weekend with a lot of other product. it's kind of funny how it all played out in terms of spreading out the demo.
War - Action Film
Bean - Harmless Comedy
Nanny Diaries - Chick Flick
And they all pulled in about the same numbers. Yet, i don't think any of the numbers would have improved if any of the others hadn't opened.
Posted by: anghus
at August 26, 2007 09:24 AM
Until the inevitable "Tsk Tsk, naysayers" piece that Dave writes every year when the box office is not praised enough, I will point this out here: again the actual tickets sold dropped this year. Only INCREASED TICKET PRICES is pushing that $4B milestone.
In other words, another what has become typical disappointing summer season, when the studios can't even release a slate of films that are supposed to be their mainstay (summer popcorn blockbusters).
Posted by: RoyBatty
at August 27, 2007 11:52 PM
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)