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September 01, 2007

Friday Estimates by Klady - 8/31

Halloween is doing well, though it is a little behind industry expectations based on tracking this last week (except at the studio advising one drudgey blogger what to think). As of Wednesday, the buzz around town was of a $30 million 3-day and a $37 million 4-day. Given that horror films often lead off strong on Friday and drop on Saturday, as date night overwhelms boys night out, the numbers should be more like $26m/$31m. But still... excellent for a film that was mostly written off earlier this summer. I would imagine that this remake of a classic will turn out have had a much higher interest from young women than would seem fitting for a Rob Zombie film.

Balls of Fury will open to an "a least it opened to something" number, but no surprise power play there. And Death Sentence is about... anyone... anyone? Hard to find an audience without really selling the movie. And though I haven't seen the film, my understanding is that a lot of people think it deserved better.

And yes, for those who seem to think that my earlier comments were equal to a nuclear disaster of some kind, it is clear that The Bourne Ultimatum, which continues to hold remarkably well, is going to hit $200 million, getting to about $198 million by Monday night.

fri0831.jpg

Posted by poland at September 1, 2007 09:17 AM

Comments

Sorry... There is some mistake in Klady's box office chart....

"Exiled" opened in two theaters(Lincoln Plaza Cinemas and Angelika Film Center), not one theaters...

http://www.nypost.com/entertainment/movies/mlistings/m57127.htm

Posted by: marychan [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 10:03 AM

I don't really understand box office analysis...
and I don't know if it means anything...
and I am probably just cheerleading because I love the film...
but Stardust seems to be holding pretty well. Having forced a bunch of people to go see it (all of whom liked it quite a bit), maybe word-of-mouth is helping this little film out.

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 01:19 PM

Stardust is holding about as well as any other late summer movie. It really doesn't matter in terms of its final gross...as Cyrano Jones would say, "Twice nothing is still nothing."

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 02:11 PM

I don't know about you, but I'd rather have $35 million than $30 million. It'll find its audience on video.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 02:24 PM

Well, $30 is only about half of its budget. Though, didn't Dave say something about it being made for overseas markets and dumped in the U.S.?

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 02:46 PM

That's my understanding.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 03:51 PM

It was certainly underpublicized.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 04:10 PM

Ratatouille crossed the $200 million mark!!!! I am certainly celebrating the occasion. As for the remark that Stardust is made for international audiences, I don't know about that. I haven't seen a single ads for it in Thailand. It does have a release date, October 4th.

Posted by: ployp [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 10:50 PM

For the remark that Stardust is made for international audiences, I don't know about that. I haven't seen a single ads for it in Thailand. It does have a release date, October 4th.

Posted by: ployp [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 1, 2007 10:51 PM

Wasn't the word on Halloween a $20mil opening? What with the odd release date and the fact that horror films have been dying brutal (one might say, tortorous) deaths at the box office.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 2, 2007 12:13 AM

On the contrary, late August is a traditional time to release a horror movie to a relatively big opening. Halloween is opening to a bigger number than comparable movies from the last few years (the two Jeepers Creepers, Wicker Man) which is a sign of the franchise name and of an underserved audience.
Early or mid-summer is when you release horror movies to poor openings, as we saw this year.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 2, 2007 01:12 AM

"And yes, for those who seem to think that my earlier comments were equal to a nuclear disaster of some kind, it is clear that The Bourne Ultimatum, which continues to hold remarkably well, is going to hit $200 million, getting to about $198 million by Monday night."

Thin skin much? I had already explained to you that my comment was meant only to point out that the film was holding better than most had thought it would, including you. Now get over it.

Btw, according to BOM 3-day estimates, it will have 199.6m as of Sunday night. It's looking like it'll hit 220-230 by the end of the run.

Ployp: ditto on the happiness for Ratatouille hitting 200m! Brilliant and deserving film.

Posted by: ThriceDamned [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 2, 2007 11:06 AM

I just can't help but think that if they released Halloween closer to, oh let's say, Halloween it could have done even better. Perhaps even knocked Saw 4 down a peg or two.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2007 01:27 AM

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