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September 22, 2007

Friday Estimate by Klady

As is so often the case, both tracking and box office weight guessers underestimate the junk and overestimate the quality stuff. If there is anything consistent about tracking and its misuse, it is this.

Look for the Resident Evil sequel to open a bit better than the last sequel, assuring – you guessed it! – a fourth RE film in the Milo Jovovich franchise that has been in profit before DVD each time out and will be again here.

I’m not a great believer in either Jessica Alba or Dane Cook as box office draws, but a mid-teens opening for Good Luck Chuck (specifically, anything over $12 million) would make this film a Top-Five-for-September opening in any year this millennium. For example, the clear box office power of Reese Witherspoon has lead to a $16.4 million opening (Just Like Heaven) and a $6.3 million 4-day (Vanity Fair) after her career defining $35.6 million opening of Sweet Home Alabama in 2002. Anyone actually expecting more out of these two or Lionsgate with a romantic comedy would be your basic b.o. fool.

Lionsgate’s history of comedies released in this quarter in recent years consists of Employee Of The Month with $11.4 million and Waiting with $6 million… both seen as positive surprises and part of defining Lionsgate’s mainstream comedic effort, which is Dane Cook, Ryan Reynolds, and/or Larry The Cable Guy combined with an actress that boys want to have sex with. And as far as Ms Alba, she has had two openings driven by her in her entire career before this weekend. Honey opened to a remarkable $12.8 million and made her bankable. Into The Blue was dumped and opened to $7 million, which made her questionable. And this opening reminds us that actresses who become best known for being eye candy and very rarely worth much at the box office, though they look great on wild postings with vanilla ice cream dripping on their chins and about to take another lick of the cone. So subtle.

Apaprently, Focus Features decided that they would be pleased to recreate the $31 million domestic gross of Cronenberg’s A History of Violence, using pretty much the same release pattern as that film. Unfortunately, their Cronenberg film, Eastern Promises, will be about $3 million or about a third behind AHOV’s first thousand-and-a-half screen release weekend. Could the movie be heading to a $20 million total? Very possibly. And maybe that’s all there is in a film about moral complexity and the Russian mob. And really, looking at Viggo’s career, aside from Hildago, which was sold very effectively as a family film, these numbers are about right… the exception, 33% better, being AHOV.

Superbad will pass Hairspray on the summer box office charts this weekend and is on its way to passing Adam Sandler’s Chuck & Larry to be the Lucky 13 for the summer.

Finally, Sony is reporting $650k on 276 screens for Across The Universe... which is... decent, but not encouraging. The hope is for word of mouth. Unfortuately, the best word of mouth they have is from the over-50 set. Good luck to them and here's hoping Julie Taymor finds a producer they trust one of these years... her genius needs trustworthy reins in a big way.

fribo0921.jpg

Posted by poland at September 22, 2007 12:52 PM

Comments

Wow...looks like Across the Universe went with the right expansion idea...not Eastern Promises=( Too bad, because though I like both, "Eastern" is far better.

The real stunner, however, has to be the killing Into the Wild made yesterday. Are we looking at a $40,000 per theatre average?! And what the hell happened to Jesse James.

Posted by: EthanG [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 12:57 PM

"Jesse James" is heavy. The images are heavy. The acting is heavy. The pacing is heavy. And that would all be fine if the material wasn't so light. But there's not a lot going on here... at least not enough for three hours. Even the "visual poetry" wears thin after 90 minutes ("Days of Heaven" was very short film for a reason).

Anyway, the heavy-handedness reminded me more of post-Sixth Sense Shyamalan than Malick. The movie establishes a comfort zone and stays right in it to the end.

Posted by: Crow T Robot [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 01:34 PM

I wish the best for Into The Wild, but don't go too crazy about a 4 screen opening. The film is terrific and could become a $100 million plus phenom. But the coasts have been carpetbombed with good word for weeks now and what else could a film lover looking for something that isn't a downer go see right now? Getting "the kids" to take this ride is the real challenge and Vantage should be using the MTV relationship for all its worth for a wider launch. This movie is The Real Road Rules, writ huge.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 01:45 PM

Wait, was Jesse James on 15 screens or 5? Nikki Finke and Boxofficemojo are both saying 5, which give sit a per screen average of around $8,800 for Friday alone.

Also, at least in NY, Into the Wild is playing at the Landmark Sunshine, while Jesse James is playing at the Angelika, so the size of the theaters, as well as the relative lengths of the films (not sure how long Into the Wild is) may be skewing things a bit. Both films are playing at Lincoln Square as well in large theaters.

Posted by: BNick [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 02:07 PM

Julie Taymor could also use a screenplay that's better than either Frida or Across the Universe.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 03:01 PM

Across the Universe had a screenplay? :evil:

Posted by: psf [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 03:13 PM

Sean Penn was in Oprah promoting "Into the Wild" on Friday....just sayin'...

Posted by: PetalumaFilms [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 04:09 PM

According to Len, JJ is on 10 Canadian screens... he is one of the few to properly count Canada... and of course, those numbers do turn up in the "finals."

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2007 11:01 PM

More screens in Canada than in the U.S.?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 12:09 AM

I would think a gross of about $2.5mil and an average of just under $10k is pretty good for the sort of movie Across the Universe is. It certainly ain't made for mass consumption that's for sure.

Other sites are recording a debut of $9.3mil for Resident Evil, which is the exact same number that the second Resident film opened to and only something like 400 more screens. Of all the franchises from this year (bar Bourne) I never thought that Resident Evil would be the one to keep it's audience so well.

And Jane Austen Book Club makes the second 2007 film after Windchill to star Emily Blunt that has gone down the odd limited release path when it seems like it was made for multiplexs. Does that confuse anyone else?

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 12:39 AM

Oh, and also, they're apparently developing the fourth Resident Evil film around the Ali Larter character. At Moviehole she's quoted as saying "we'll see come Monday, right"...

http://www.moviehole.net/news/20070921_a_hero_for_resident_evil_4.html

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 01:24 AM

It's a bad sign when Milla Jovovich decides a franchise might be beneath her talents.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 03:03 AM

KamikazeCamel: you got it backwards. This third Resident Evil is opening on 400 fewer screens than the second one, not 400 more (2800 now compared to 3200 then). Hence, it's actually doing a bit better so far than the second one and will post a higher per screen average.

Although I actually thought the second one was quite a bit better than the first, I never would have guessed that this franchise had so much life in it (boxoffice wise).

Posted by: ThriceDamned [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 03:18 AM

I liked the Resident Evil franchise. I can't exactly say why, but there's something about seeing zombies (they're not actually called that in the first two) shot dead and hacked to pieces without any political subtext. Also. without Jovovich, it wouldn't be Resident Evil.

It's opening in Thailand next week I think. Can't wait...

Posted by: ployp [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 05:05 AM

Thrice, that's exactly what I was saying. I was saying that the two movies opened to the same amount despite the second one opening on 400 more screens. But I can see where the confusion came from.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 06:31 AM

Ok, I guess I just misunderstood you then. My apologies.

Posted by: ThriceDamned [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 07:14 AM

Jesse James is playing on two screen in the same theatre in Toronto...and thats it for Canada.

Posted by: themutilator [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 09:11 AM

The weekend estimates put a smile on my face.

"Eastern Promises" > name-checking > stiff.

"In the Valley of Elah" > name-checking + Oscar-whoring > bigger stiff.

"The Hunting Party" > name-checking > flop.

"Across the Universe" > no name-checking > better PTA than any of the above.

"Jesse James" > no name-checking > legit arthouse pic for regular WB.

"Into the Wild" > no name-checking > huge opening, portends well for national release?

"Jane Austen Book Club" > no name-checking > less than boffo opening > national release cut back?

And I feel like a bullet in the gun of Roh-bert Ford ...

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 10:58 AM

So the fact that several of those movies not doing well are, in fact, quite good while some of the movies doing well are confused and bad is meaningless to you?

Really?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2007 01:26 PM

"It's a bad sign when Milla Jovovich decides a franchise might be beneath her talents."

Anyone who's seen the movie knows that it's set up for another movie with Milla.. although that original Ali Larter quote came from our sister horror site (as credited on moviehole), I think it's just an actress trying to insure her place in the sequel. Anyone who saw Extinction knows that the franchise is all about Milla/Alice and that they'd be nuts to try to do one without her.

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2007 04:42 AM

I would suggest to Ali Larter that if she is wanting to take her newly rediscovered fame and run with it that the fourth film in the Resident Evil franchise isn't the best way to go. As we know all too well, the geek crowd (and Heroes is of a decidedly more upper class of geeks) can only get you so far in this world.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2007 07:30 AM

For some reason, I have been avoiding HEROES. Knowing now that Ali Larter is in it has cemented the deal. HOUSE ON HAUNTED HILL and FINAL DESTINATION were both ripe with terrible performances, and she led the way in both of those pictures.

Posted by: bmcintire [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2007 03:34 PM

Trust me, if you didn't watch the first season then Ali Larter or not, you'd be a knob to even attempt watching the second.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 25, 2007 12:46 AM

Ali Larter is one of the best parts of HEROES, and she's saddled with one of the oddest HEROES. So... do not avoid it on her part.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 25, 2007 10:15 AM

She is quite good in Heroes, although I find her ability quite confusing. Is it technically even an ability? Seems more like a mental instability if you ask me. But, with that show you never can tell, I guess.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 25, 2007 07:17 PM

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