The Hot Blog

I'm quite happy to see that Rush Hour 3 hasn't make a ton of cash (relatively at least). And Superbad tops out at what? $90 million? That wouldn't be a bad haul for it.

Whoops. Misread the chart. I'd revise my Superbad prediction to somewhere closer to another $20-30 mill on - so in the neighbourhood of $120 mill.

Superbad's cume's off. It's actually made over $92mil so far. Should be good for $110-120 depending on how it drops next week.

Superbad will probably top out right before 100 million. That's pretty damn good for a raunchy R-rated flick. Nice of Bourne to make some cash, and Rush Hour's grosses may get Tucker to work more than once every 4 years.

Okay; if it's already that close to 100 million. If it grosses close it gets to 110 or 120, that's still pretty fucking impressive for an R-rated teen comedy.

So between this opening for Halloween and the cheers that the trailer for Saw IV was met with, I guess horror's dead, right?

(For the record, I do not share in that audience's enthusiasm for Saw IV.)

Jeff; Horrour had a good come back this week, or was it NAME RECOGNITION? Hmmmmmmmmmmm. Nevertheless; Saw is a brand name at this point. So it will do good business next month. Let us just see if a horrour movie can come out of the blue and make 30 million in a weekend if it's not named SAW or WAL-MART.

Probably it was both plus heavy marketing.

The problem w/ Rush Hour's number is it cost too much to make - $150Mil is obscene for a comedy. Absolutely obscene....but with Rattner at the helm what did the studio expect? If it had cost half that amount it would be profit territory...I laughed when I saw it, now shoot me.

It seems to me that some of these movies are having a distribution problem. For example, Talk to Me, never expanded beyond about 500 theatres...I just wonder, are there fewer theatres or something? I see a lot of neighborhood theatres closing....this is definitely going to cause a problem if the product is being produced but doesn't have an outlet....I see more movies starring B-list actors going straight to video....I know sometimes there's a finance & marketing problem, but -- I also think there are fewer movies to send the movies to.

Superbad still continues to suprise me with its resilience at the BO. Consider this, most had this movie pegged at doing 40YOV numbers. Its now at 92.4M after 18 days. Knocked up, which had great legs, was at 92.2M after 18 days. I think Superbad could just limp to 135m, based on not having the benefit of summer weekday business to rely on the way Knocked Up did.

Also, I pegged Bourne early on as doing +200M, like many others also on this blog except Dave, as I was tracking its progress as being extremely similiar to 300, which opened in the same territory, and then Bourne just continued to surge ahead of it. Dave you're getting to be extremly safeguarded in your predictions. Is it apprehension from overestimating Dreamgirls and Hairspray?

Also, celebrating that Transformers is past Pirates, and wish it could catch Spidey 3. I have no guauge on what the planned re-release will do, but I hope that goes well.

Now that summer is in the can, and we look to the rest of the year,what movies are jumping out at you guys as blockbusters for the +100M club? Maybe Beowulf and I am Legend. Anything else?

I think this fall is going to be pretty blah - probably $100 million grossers include The Heartbreak Kid, Bee Movie, Fred Claus, The Golden Compass, I Am Legend, and National Treasure 2. The only ones I could see having the legs to do $200 million are Bee Movie, Golden Compass, and National Treasure.

I would not be surprised if "3:10 to Yuma" hit $100 million. Mind you, it would take a long, leggy run for it to do so. Still, I think it's possible.

Here are my list of possible candidates to the +100m club for the rest of 2007. (I had some idle time on my hands)

September:Difficult month to join the club.
Top Opening: Sweet Home Alabama: 35m.
Top Grosser: Rush Hour 3 : 143M.
2006's Top Grosser: Open Season: 84M
My Pics: None
I think 3:10 & Kingdom will top out at 90M, Jesse james & Brave One @ 80M.

October:
Top Opening Scary Movie 3:48M.
Top Grosser Meet The Parents:166M.
2006's top grosser:The Departed:132M
My 2007 Pics:
Elizabeth (Oscar Bait)
The Heartbreak Kid (Ben Stiller)
Could Break out: The Dark is Rising(If it isn't like Eragon)
Things we lost in the fire. (Oscar Bait and Dreamworks is on roll this year.)

November:
Top Opener: Harry Potter GOF.102M
Top Grosser:Harry Potter TSS. 317M
2006's Top Grosser:Happy Feet. 198M
My 2007 Pics: American Gangstar (Oscar Bait, already buzzworthy with general public.)
Bee Movie (Is it Happy Feet or Shark Tales?)
Fred Claus (Vince Vaughn has tremendous good will).
Lions for Lambs. (Cruise is still a reliable BO draw).
Beowulf (Original enough to get attention)
Could Break Out:
Enchanted (Disney marketing machine).
Magoriums Emporium: (Could do a Polar Express)

December
Top Opening:Lord of the Rings: 72M
Top Grosser: (yeah we all know)
2006's top grosser:Night at the Museum: 250M
My 2007 Pics:
I am Legend (Money in the bank),
Golden Compass (Wont be the next Narnia, and they'll have to wash off The Invasion stink. Sweeny Todd (Can't wait for dave's rave review and subsequent oscar shoo-in proclamation). Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts)
National Treasure: (Maybe 120M tops)
Could Break Out:
Alvin & The Chipmunks(Outside of Golden Compass, seems like the only kid friendly title. Thats weird.)

No way Things We Lost in the Fire is getting to $100mil unless it wins Best Picture and gets rereleased. Unless you were stating something else? I also can't see Jesse James getting to $80mil. Three hour contemplative western?

Damn Bulldog; you may have pegged this year's HEAT MAN-CRUSH OSCAR FILM with Sweeney Todd. It seems so obvious now while make a lot of sense this far out. Nevertheless; Chi-town, in my town the main art-house turns into a regular theatre over the Summer. If this trend is spread out over 30 percent of the country. I could see this possibly effecting a roll-out as well as screen count. Also... RH3 cost that much money to make? DAMN. I hope the international audience likes Jackie to see that flick. If not; New Line has turned Peter Jackson into their very own GOAT.

To KCV2.0: My thinking was if Brokeback could get to 83M, then an obvious Oscarbait like Jesse James could get there as well. And Brad is a darling of all and sundry these days, (gay & straight), and who knows, him and Angelina may be the Oscar It Couple, with her possible nomination for Mighty Heart.Plus he's also had a strong run at the BO since Troy(2004), and this may get that Unforgiven type of hype.

Also, I included Things/Fire because nothing else is really jumping out at me. Dreamworks seems to be hitting the right notes this year, and though they may have to counteract some Halle Berry backlash, (like did she really deserve that oscar, look at the shit she's done afterward), it could suprise if it is really good. I did put it in my 'could break out category'.

If I recall correctly KC, you're from Australia. Did Invasion open there yet, and if so, how did it do?

bulldog68 - Invasion has opened in Thailand on the 23rd, in case you wanted to know. It's being sold as a Nicole Kidman movie here.

As for Rush Hour 3, it's doing extremely well here. Chan is a huge name. Plus, it's slapstick comedy. Thais seem to love it.

Brokeback was riding (no pun) on the wave of awards it was getting and such. A lot of gay men and women may find Brad Pitt attractive (not me, he's bland as vanilla) but that's not enough to get them all to see a three hour contemplative western.

The Invasion opens here next week, but it'll probably die a quick death like it did in America. I haven't seen any marketing at all, which is odd because we've got far less area to cover (we don't have 5000 channels on tv)

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

URL:
Remember me? YesNo

Comments: