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September 09, 2007

Sunday Estimates by Klady - Sept 9

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Posted by poland at September 9, 2007 07:44 AM

Comments

What happened to Russell Crowe? Isn't he a bigger star than 13.5 mil?

Posted by: waterbucket [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 10:50 AM

What happened to Russell Crowe? He threw a phone at a minimum wage earner just doing his job.

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 10:58 AM

I can't imagine that people still care about that phone-throwing incident, especially since I didn't even care at the time. Also, that guy was definitely not a minimum wage-earner, he worked at the Mercer!

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 11:26 AM

when a celeb has legal troubles/or other troubles that may affect availability for work, they don;t signed up to much stuff. and it takes a couple years for projects to get going, get finished so there would be a slowdown for Crowe regardless and being out for even a short time might affect perceived bankability. Maybe that didn;t happen to him, yet it seems like he, maybe Tom Cruise (but not anything judicial) and now Lindsay Lohan might take awhile to regain their earlier steam.

How many Hotel workers do you know Noah? The "hospitality" industry doesn;t pay anyone well unless an employee is making strides up the management hill. Doesn;t matter if they work in an expensive hotel or not. I was a union rep for many job types for over a decade--they get paid squat and it lowers my opinion of celebs when they abuse these people who have to cater to their every trantrum-filled whim (esp when they 'forget' to tip the grunts).

Posted by: Lota [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 11:47 AM

Well, Crowe hasn't had a problem getting signed up for work at all and I don't understand why anyone would care about what an actor or filmmaker does off the screen as long as they put up a good performance on screen. I can understand Lindsay Lohan's life being splattered across the tabloids affecting how a person might not be able to accept her pretending to be another person on screen, but Crowe's private life for the most part has been quiet. And even when he was having an affair with Meg Ryan, people didn't seem to stop going to his movies (except for that one).

And, Lota, I've had a few friends work at the Mercer and they were quite well taken care of. Also, we're speculating about what may or may not have happened there. Nobody knows the real specifics other tyhan the people who were there. The real point is that he might be the biggest asshole in the world, but why would anyone care as long as he was giving great performances?

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 12:15 PM

I suppose I just can't imagine that there are people sitting there, watching the ads for 3:10 to Yuma and saying, "Wow, that looks so great. I wish I could go, but that fucking phone-thrower Russell Crowe is in it!"

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 12:18 PM

Hhahaha, minimum wage? Now THAT is comedy.

This has nothing to do with Crowe/Bale, and more to do with LGF's sorry excuse for an awareness campaign. This is the same problem that has haunted Bale for years now. The man is cursed.

Posted by: Tofu [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 12:49 PM

What was the last Western to open above 13.5? That's the reality of it, forget Crowe.

Posted by: Jerry Colvin [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 01:07 PM

Open Range opened to $14m and was considered a hit. The biggest opening for a western is apparently Maverick with $17m.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 01:12 PM

Wow, real sad that Hatchet's per screen is so terrible. Now THAT is a fun horror movie that isn't very scary.

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 02:46 PM

Who did Will Arnet throw a phone at? $730 per screen for "Brother's Solomon". Ouch. Even though it looks dumb, I thought it would have had some sort of audience.

Posted by: tjfar67 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 03:04 PM

Looking back at his numbers, aside from A Beautiful Mind and Gladiator you can't really say that he had too many hits that were on his shoulders. The rest Cinderalla Man, The Insider, Master and Commander were all disappointments.

Posted by: tfresca [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 04:41 PM

Good to see SHOOT EM UP underperform. They must have nearly spent more than that gross on Spike advertising alone. Another geekasm put firmly in its place. This mess should have been a PG13.

Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 05:17 PM

Several of those Crowe movies are only disappointments based on how high the budgets were. $94 million for a slow, character-based movie about the British Navy in the Napoleonic Wars is pretty good.

It took Crowe quite a while to get a hit, with Gladiator, and after it and A Beautiful Mind he's never had something that big, which basically means he was overvalued for a while and is now adjusting to his proper market value, which is something lower than a Tom Hanks but higher than a Clive Owen.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 05:31 PM

"What happened to Russell Crowe?" seems a less pressing question than, "Will Clive Owen EVER happen?"

Is he just too British? Too brutish? When he does acclaimed movies, like CLOSER or CHILDREN OF MEN, people stay away in droves. When he does would-be popcorn movies like DERAILED or KING ARTHUR, the same thing. His best bet would seem to be second banana in edgy crime movies (SIN CITY, INSIDE MAN)... But if Gerard Butler can bounce back from a decade of duds to become a 20-million dollar man, can't there ever be a role for the awesome Clive Owen that clicks with the mainstream?

"Who's Clive Owen????" is a refrain I hear time and again from people who don't follow the biz and don't make a living off this stuff-- you know, uncles and aunts and in-laws and receptionist types, with the only flicker of recognition coming when I work my way down to, "You know, the guy that shot at Matt Damon in the field in the first BOURNE movie."

"Ohhhhh... Yeah, I think I remember him."

Too bad. And not that I thought SHOOT 'EM UP would be the smash to launch his Hollywood career after over a decade of trying... but it's interesting to note that basically the same movie-- SMOKIN' ACES-- opened at 15 MILLION in January.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 05:53 PM

"Shoot Em Up" is a surprisingly joyless piece of trash. It puts so much hot sauce on its burger that we can no longer taste the burger. Earns the title of Least Subtle Movie Of The Year.

The real deal for gourmet junk food is still Death Proof and its great Kurt Russell performance. I wonder if any critics groups will have the balls to award him a best supporting actor prize at year's end.

Posted by: Crow T Robot [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 06:13 PM

Any executive who pays Gerard Butler 20 million for a movie is a moron. No one, other than film geeks, knows who he is. Zero draw.

Clive Owen doesn't need to "open" a movie. He's a great, intelligent actor and the less pressure on him to open a film, the better. A piece of shit like Shoot Em Up wouldn't open if Scorsese directed it. Isn't this genre beyond dead?

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 06:49 PM

I don't think you can say for certain how much of a draw Gerard Butler is or isn't at this point until his post-300 projects start to come out.

Posted by: CaptainZahn [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 06:59 PM

Still dont see how he's a draw. The uniqueness and SFX of 300 was the draw to that movie, period. Along with the Frank Miller geek squad. Neither I, nor any of my friends, were aware of who Butler was before that film, and I'm not sure we were in the minority on that. If Butler comes out with a rom-com, you think he'll draw what 300 did?

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 07:39 PM

Clive Owen decided not to have a high B.O. career when he took himself out of the Bond running. Now Daniel Craig has the career Owen should have had, while Owen is heading the Jude Law route of a fine British actor who is never going to be a Michael Caine or Sean Connery.

I agree about Russell Crowe being overvalued. He's a prestige player who got too big for his britches. But people know him and are waiting for him to show up in something like a 300 or American Gangster.

Christian Bale is taking the Johnny Depp route to stardom by doing oddball performances tht people don't necessarily gravitate to. At some point, though, I predict he's going to hit in a big way. But until then he needs to stick to the Batmans, so the public at least knows who he is. Let's just hope he doesn't burn out like Michael Keaton or Val Kilmer.

Gerald Butler remains to be seen. What's he doing next?

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 08:34 PM

Who on earth cares if Clive Owen or Christian Bale or Russell Crowe can "open" a movie? I for one would hate to see them toiling in the kind of dreck that "opens" for the rest of their careers.

Seriously, we don't need any more Nicolas Cages.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 09:05 PM

Clive Owen maintains he was never offered Bond, and he seems to be fine with doing stuff he wants to do, regardless of whether or not it's going to be "hit" material. He's a fascinating actor, even if he can't "open" a film.

Posted by: Aladdin Sane [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2007 09:40 PM

Let's wait and see what happens to 3:10 to Yuma, shall we? Seems like an ideal title to get good legs. A male-oriented western debuting on the first week of American football season (or whatever it was that I read)? $14mil (the number being reported elsewhere) seems like a pretty darn good number.

Strange fact: Crowe has only ever had two movies on over 3000 screens. Master & Commander (his best work in my mind) and Gladiator.

And as Rob said, I hope Crowe doesn't feel the need to become another Nicolas Cage. I much prefer him laying low and releasing one or maybe two movies a year.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2007 12:19 AM

Crowe is bigger than a 13.5 mil opening but -- if yesterday was an indication the public stayed home - football, tennis, baseball...plus remember the kiddies are back in school. The better time to open would have been Labor Day weekend.

But let's admit it - Crowe is better than a $13mil opening but not THAT much better. I saw Yuma, I liked it, the aud I sat with liked it....it has legs based on word of mouth.

Posted by: Chicago48 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2007 04:32 AM

The Western issue can't be underestimated - it's simply a genre that never provides huge box office.

And it was the return of the NFL, back to school, all this stuff...

And as much as I like him, I don't think Christian Bale is a draw AT ALL. If he was, somebody would have went to see his fine work in the Herzog film.

Anyway, before you throw Mr. Crowe into the has-been pile, let's see how Brad Pitt's western opens. I'd be surprised if it did any better.

Posted by: The Carpetmuncher [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2007 08:53 AM

Indeed, Assassination of Jesse James looks like the kind of film that will be lucky to make $14 mil total.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 10, 2007 04:33 PM

How is Jesse James being released? Wide first week or starting with limited engagements? Seems like they should get a huge cinema average from a couple of cinemas to get some buzz?

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 08:09 AM

"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" opens limited on 9/21. Think it's esoteric? Elton John had a song 30-some years ago that refers to this piece of history. If WB doesn't resort to name-checking and/or Oscar-whoring I'll go.

Also, the latest "3:10 to Yuma" would have opened in single digits without name-checking.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 09:54 AM

So this was the one occasion in all the months you've posted here that name-checking was actually a good and useful thing?

What is your deal, Chucky? Why do you hate this practice so? The quality of Jesse James is going to have absolutely nothing to do with how well-run its marketing campaign is.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 10:15 AM

So jeffmcm wants the Summer of Pre-Sold Pictures to continue forever -- nothing but franchises, remakes, sequels, name-checking and Oscar-whoring.

Franchises, remakes and sequels = Hollywood on crack. Name-checking = Hollywood on meth. The high is brief but the comedown is a killer.

Last time I looked, Oscar-whoring spelled Box Office Disaster -- and it's only gonna get worse.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 11:25 AM

You completely misunderstand what I'm asking.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 12:30 PM

Let me repeat: the quality of a movie has nothing to do with the quality of its advertising, and many good movies have been turned into Oscar whore movies. These factors are not inextricably bound together.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 11, 2007 03:33 PM

I enjoyed Shoot 'Em Up. More entertaining in 100 minutes than Transformers managed in over 2 hours.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 14, 2007 09:26 PM

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