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October 18, 2007
20 Weeks To Oscar - 20 Wks To Go
I will tell you right here and right now… I am completely confident that every single one of my Top Five this week could end up not making the cut in the end. It’s that kind of year. It’s going to be a battle royale and from start to finish, it will be about the movies first and everything else second. A movie like Lars & The Real Girl or Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead will be at a serious disadvantage in the Best Picture race because the distributors don’t have the money or the experience to push through the big nomination… and they will be battling every experienced player in the game.
Yet… anything could happen.

Posted by poland at October 18, 2007 09:06 PM
Comments
Cheers for the callout to BEOWULF which has the potential to be the one picture than might reduce all of the others to the status of also-rans. It could be a phenomenon and the true revolution in movie-watching that makes IMAX 3D the preferred way to see a picture.
Jeers for the omissions of THE GOLDEN COMPASS and LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA. Both are based on very popular and respected novels and if they find their audiences they could do very well. As far as I know nobody has seen COMPASS yet but the recent final trailer is very strong. The young lead, Dakota Blue Richards, looks like an amazing find, and we know from ABOUT A BOY how skilfull Chris Weitz is with child actors.
Oh, and ENCHANTED should be on the longshot list.
Posted by: Ian Sinclair
at October 18, 2007 09:23 PM
With due respect... if you can find anyone who has anything to do with any of those three films who really thinks there is an opportunity there, please send them my way.
Enchanted is going to have its hands full simply trying to be a $120 million holiday hit. It's not close to BP quality.
Posted by: David Poland
at October 18, 2007 09:56 PM
And I think people will soon be buzzing about Susan Sarandon getting a Supporting actress nom for playing the ultimate disney villainous. But picture? no way.
Golden Compass without the emotional ending and inherent sacrifices and deaths has absolutely no chance whatsoever, and it had a snowball's chance in hell to begin with, but moving those out killed (haha) any possibility of adults enjoying the film more than children (which with the material was a definite possibility), but this makes sure noone cries at the theatre, so that's got to be good, right?
Intriguing ordering on the BP landscape, any reason why you're not putting together other charts yet? is everything just too scattershot and fluctuating day to day this year?
I don't really see Into the Wild enjoying BP love, the central character is a romantic figure/journier but terribly annoying--sort of the male version of the fourteen year old girl besotted with puppy love (I'm thinking Bianca in Taming of the Shrew here). And I think it's hard for the film to overcome the guy's shortcomings as a human being (I kept getting frustrated at how deliberately he kept hurting every person he came in contact with without giving a damn about them at all). And I'm the sort predisposed to like films like this.
Likewise it's hard for me to motivate myself to see Lars and the Real Girl because of the ick factor. It sort of looks sweet but it looks more like it's really really painful, a comedy of mockery and hurt and at-least-I'm-not-that-bad freakiness. Not for me.
Posted by: movielocke
at October 18, 2007 11:34 PM
Atonement in fourth? Hmmm.
I'm getting a strong feeling that Julian Schnabel will be this year's Almodovar and snag surprise - but deserving (apparently) - big category nominations. And then throw in a Max Von Sydow supporting actor nom for good measure.
Do you have pages for the other categories or just best picture?
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at October 18, 2007 11:48 PM
I hope I am wrong, but nothing in the trailer for CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR indicates quality on ANY level.
And movielocke, your insticts on LARS AND THE REAL GIRL, though expected and understandable, are a complete 180 degrees off what the movie actually delivers. Most peoples' problem with it is that they find it almost too sweet. Definitely worth a shot.
Posted by: bmcintire
at October 19, 2007 01:37 AM
Ugh; That CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR trailer is terrrrrible. Is it wrong to opine that "American Pie" is the most annoying, depressing, awful song of all time? They'd have lost me at that for good, had I not already been put off by this media blitz that we're all supposed to give a shit about the BIG SCREEN RETURN OF JULIA ROBERTS!!!!
Who fucking cares?
And as always, I know many of you guys CAN'T offer opinions on this sort of thing due to industry decorum, but is it too much to ask that Tom Hanks LOSE SOME FUCKING WEIGHT? You're a MOVIE STAR, fat-ass. Also, is he wearing a rug nowadays?
Posted by: LexG
at October 19, 2007 02:22 AM
Cut him some slack, Tom Hanks is 51 years old and he's playing a character who was not svelte himself.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at October 19, 2007 02:35 AM
Did that Hanks/Van Sant adaptation of that barista novel fall through? (Pardon me, I'm too lazy to click over to IMDB, which for some reason takes 45 minutes to load on my home 56k connection...)
That would've been kind of awesome. Obviously Hanks kinda rules and is definitely Hollywood royalty, but for one of our "greatest actors," he never does "edgy."
And don't gimme etched-in-granite prestige flick "Road to Perdition" as a comeback. I wanna see Hanks sporting shadow and spouting F-bombs while infiltrating a neon-hued grimy porn/drug underworld in some scuzzy, hardcore "8MM"-style crime/revenge flick.
Posted by: LexG
at October 19, 2007 02:43 AM
Yes, but is there anybody you don't want to see doing that?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at October 19, 2007 03:06 AM
LexG: Settle down. Julia Roberts is popular. SHOCK!
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at October 19, 2007 05:56 AM
I like Julia Roberts, and I think she's a very good actress. I'm not sure but I think that's grounds for being banned from the internet, so I probably shouldn't have said that.
As for Lars and the Real Girl. I know quite well and rationally that there's no ick factor involved other than in the concept of a real girl. But this is sort of like the 40 year old virgin, the title just suggests that it's about poking fun at someone else's misery. of course like 40 yo Virgin Lars is probably also completely different than what its title suggests. I'll still wait til DVD.
Posted by: movielocke
at October 19, 2007 08:03 AM
Hairspray was well-done and entertaining...
... but come on, Dave, it is on no one's Oscar radar.
Posted by: MASON
at October 19, 2007 09:19 AM
Right. Because one has to be in good shape to be an actor.
Frankly I think it's part of Hanks' appeal. He's never been the handsome, sexy, makes-women-scream star. That's not how he puts buts in seats. And frankly 50 year olds trying to look buff gets kinda creepy. He's older, a little heavier, I don't see what the problem is.
I just can't wait to watch him hold his own to Philip Seymor Hoffman.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at October 19, 2007 09:45 AM
I'm going to try to see some of these "contenders" this weekend.
Gone, Baby, Gone is one of my favorite books in the last ten years I hope the movie holds a candle to it.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at October 19, 2007 09:48 AM
LexG, did you really watch the Charlie Wilson's War trailer and only come out with two superficial responses, A) you hate American Pie and B) Tom Hanks should lose some weight? Gee, how bright and insightful of you.
Posted by: bipedalist
at October 19, 2007 12:53 PM
It seems that the best strategy for Oscars is to wait as long as possible before releasing your movie. It keeps your name in the race for so long that all you have to do is release a movie that is halfway decent and it'll get nominated. That seems to be the thinking for Charlie Wilson's War, not showing the film to anybody and knowing that the cast and filmmakers will keep it relevant until its release. But, I have a feeling this might result in another Dreamgirls if the movie isn't absolutely brilliant. It's giving other films a chance to gain momentum (Michael Clayton, Before the Devil...).
I think Charlie Wilson's War looks like it could be good, but the trailer is very cookie-cutter with the music choices. Still, I think the subject matter is so compelling and I can't imagine that that cast and that director could deliver a mediocre film. It'll be either brilliant or awful.
Posted by: Noah
at October 19, 2007 01:42 PM
I am really in love with Tilda Swinton's Michael Clayton performance. I would love to see her get nominated and win. I am also hoping that it will be Johnny's year.
Posted by: Monco
at October 20, 2007 05:25 PM
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