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October 05, 2007

Another Moment Of Hysteria

Crazy Nikki Finke has come back from his illness with a vengeance… full of piss, vinegar, and as usual, a total lack of interest in the facts.

Her latest rant is against Warner’s Jeff Robinov, who has all kinds of problems as a head of production… but whose should-never-have-been-said-out-loud call not to make pricey films driven by female leads is hardly a shocker. And of course, the first thing Nikki fails to notice is that her pal Amy Pascal made this decision for Sony a few years ago and has had two great box office years since… with only one title, the underperforming The Holiday, driven by female stars in those last two years.

But let’s stop talking about gossip and look at the facts. In the last two years, by my count, of the top 100 domestic grossers, there have only been 14 films in 2006 and 18 in 2007 that qualify as “driven by a female star” in the most generous of definitions. So, for instance, that would include the Pirates of The Caribbean films, which are obviously driven by Johnny Depp, but feature Keira Knightley in near equal status in the marketing.

When you get down to films that are actually fronted by actresses, not driven by boy-girl pairings (like Failure to Launch or Hairspray, where the boy-girl pair was all in one performance), I count 7 of the top 100 domestic grossers in 2006 and 10 this year. The bump in titles and the grosses this year are likely driven by The Devil Wears Prada, a surprise smash last summer.

This top-100-gross list, however, includes the films that Mr. Robinov allegedly has said, “No more” to… The Invasion, The Brave One, Nancy Drew, and No Reservations. (Again, Robinov might get a little credit for being the only studio head who greenlit more than one of these films… putting him in much the same position as it did Pascal in 2000.)

The actual numbers:

2006
Place – Title – Studio - Gross
17 - The Devil Wears Prada - Fox - $124,740,460
45 - The Holiday - Sony - $63,224,849
62 - The Lake House - WB - $52,330,111
66 - When a Stranger Calls - SGem - $47,860,214
68 - Nanny McPhee - Uni. - $47,144,110
80 - Last Holiday - Par. - $38,399,961
93 - She's the Man - P/DW - $33,741,133

2007
Place – Title – Studio - Gross
38 - Because I Said So - Uni. - $42,674,040
39 - No Reservations - WB - $42,508,781
44 - Freedom Writers - Par. - $36,605,602
52 - The Brave One - WB - $31,763,669
58 - The Nanny Diaries - MGM/W - $25,636,484
59 - Nancy Drew - WB - $25,612,520
75 - Waitress - FoxS - $19,040,418
77 - Georgia Rule - Uni. - $18,920,455
78 - Becoming Jane - Mira. - $18,495,762
86 - The Invasion - WB - $15,058,969

Notice, while there were 3 $50 million-plus grossers last year, there are none this year.

But it’s worse than that. 21 major studio releases (not including MGM at this point) have grossed under $20 million domestic this year. 6 of those titles were female lead films… adding 1 more dud to Warners’ list.

77 - Georgia Rule - Uni. - $18,920,455
78 - Becoming Jane - Mira. - $18,495,762
86 - The Invasion - WB - $15,058,969
107 - Sydney White - Uni. - $8,765,475
113 - I Know Who Killed Me - Sony - $7,233,485
120 - Lucky You - WB - $5,758,950

In the four years before Prada, there was also a dearth of $100 million-plus movies with women in front: Mr. & Mrs. Smith and King Kong in 2005 (both of which co-starred major attention-drawing monkeys), The Grudge in 2004, Bringing Down The House, Something’s Gotta Give, and Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle in 2003, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Chicago, Sweet Home Alabama in 2002.

Now, I’m not saying that closing off a demographic completely isn’t stupid. Robinov’s alleged rule is already apparent in WB’s 2008 schedule, on which the only female-driven title is sequel to The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, bolstered by the emergence of America Ferarra. But wouldn’t bombing with Jodie Foster (the most bankable of these actresses), Nicole Kidman, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Drew Barrymore (plus Julia Roberts’ niece) in one year put anyone off? Certainly, at least three of the five films had quality issues. But only 2 of the films opened to more than $10 million.

The correct answer is like all of Hollywood’s greenlighting issues. Judge the material first. Make good choices. But yes, also take the genre, the sex, the race, etc into business account. Some stars in some roles are an 85% guarantee of a level of success, but not always and more importantly, not all stars in all roles.

Jodie Foster draws adult women for sure… and somehow, on The Brave One, that audience was left out. Nicole Kidman fronting an expensive movie is probably a very dangerous choice. I have said from the start that Catherine Zeta-Jones, who did okay but not great with No Reservations, is a firebrand actress and was miscast as the shy one who needs to be brought out of her shell… and the limited imagination of the producers and studio on that one missed that the chef role is, a) the money, and b) a better role.

Meryl Streep’s box office value, bolstered so much by Prada last year, is back in line this year. But that doesn’t mean that she cannot be used as a box office driver. Queen Latifah, aside from supporting big movies, should make $20 million budget films only, with a cut of the gross, and could be a franchise for a decade. By non-butch Hilary Swank history, she overperformed nicely in Freedom Writers.

As in all things, it’s the movie, stupid.

Let’s not pretend that four older, slowly fading stars made Wild Hogs a massive hit, meaning both John Travolta movies this year passed $100 million domestic. And that four of the top five highest grossers were not star driven at all (the fifth being Depp in Pirates) and that of the next five, only Bourne and the Hogs had star power and that Knocked Up was sold on Seth Rogen’s mug, but that yes, Katherine Heigl was absolutely critical to drawing women… but was it her star power (or Seth’s) or just the likeability of the film amongst a very human-irrelevant run of summer films?

It’s not a Hollywood conspiracy against women. It’s a Hollywood conspiracy FOR money.

(The borderline women-driven films are listed after the jump.)

Posted by poland at October 5, 2007 01:27 PM

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Posted by: Andrew at October 5, 2007 02:52 PM

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