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All of you are really underestimating Lars and the Real Girl. So many people I talk to have fallen in love with this film. Ryan Gosling's performance is amazing. When I was in the theater you could hear people just weeping. And the film got the best reception from any other screening I've attended so far...maybe tieing with Into The Wild.

I've got a feeling In the Valley of Elah will just get acting nods. Jones in particular. But not best Pic.

Fair to say that Atonement is the clear front-runner by everyone. Yet doesn't seem to be the lead topic in any blog thread anywhere. A friend of mine recently saw "Into the Wild" and couldn't stop singing it's praises.

Atonement won't be a lead topic until it actually gets released.

Lars and Gosling is in my Top 5... but people are still resisting, mostly because they haven't seen it... it's Litle Miss Sunshine, but even warmer.

Is there truly no populist early-year flick that somehow makes an out-of-nowhere push? Not saying I can really think of one, but we usually get at least one candidate that's re-energized by DVD and/or re-release, be it "Braveheart" or "Sixth Sense" or "Crash" or "Little Miss Sunshine," all of which came out in spring or summer, and none of which even REMOTELY seemed like a viable Oscar contender during their initial run.

David, what a complete and utter waste of time. You would be better off going to some bar and asking for a show of hands. Those people's opinions mean nothing to me: they will mean even less to an Academy voter.

Ian,

All Academy talk is a waste of time right now. All opinions are equal in that they all know nothing. If we're going to engage in this fool's errand (and people wish to), then this is as good of a spark for the debate as any.

Noted, Ian.

I think you are exaggerating, but that's fine.

There are layers to everything. I don't expect everyone to be interested in all of them.

I think this is fascinating, at least in academic way. It's always interesting to see how the race slowly changes and shapes itself based on all the PR campaigns and how good the films are. It's not what film is supposed to be about (which is why you hear so many directors and actors complain about being placed in competition with each other as they graciously walk away with their statue), but it is a part of the business that I'm learning to enjoy for what it is. Everyone enjoys a horse race, so why not just sit back and see what everyone thinks and if you want to call them silly for their choices, then isn't that the whole point? At least we're talking about movies.

is there a page or anything? I couldn't find a link.

Sight unseen Oscar predictions are just for fun and curiosity's sake anyway, just a way to check in to what people were thinking at specific time of the year.

Nevermind, I see it now!

P.P.S. I actually think this is a great group of folks - very very cool. Nice to see them there.

Seriously, do people really think Atonement will win the Oscar? It's a small movie, with no huge stars, not American, and not about any important social issues or a war. Really good but small British movies are to be nominated at best.

Tell that to Chariots of Fire.

Isn't the biggest difference between Little Miss Sunshine and Lars and the Real Girl that the former was released by Fox Searchlight and the latter is being released by MGM?

David, these are my early choices for Oscar nods. Please send me a set of brass scales for my balls, as I seem to have outgrown mine.

best picture
1. BEOWULF
2. ATONEMENT
3. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
4. ENCHANTED
5. 3:10 TO YUMA

best actor
1. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, There Will Be Blood
2. JAVIER BARDEM, Love in the Time of Cholera
3. RUSSELL CROWE, 3:10 to Yuma
4. JAMES McAVOY, Atonement
5. JACK NICHOLSON, The Bucket List

best actress
1. AMY ADAMS, Enchanted
2. CATE BLANCHETT, The Golden Age
3. MARION COTILLARD, Piaf
4. DAKOTA BLUE RICHARDS, The Golden Compass
5. KEIRA KNIGHTLY, Atonement

best director
1. ROBERT ZEMECKIS, Beowulf
2. PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, There Will Be Blood
3. MIKE NEWELL, Love in the Time of Cholera
4. JAMES MANGOLD, 3:10 TO YUMA
5. JOE WRIGHT, Atonement

supporting actor
1. Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. Sam Elliott, THE GOLDEN COMPASS
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
4. Ben Foster, 3:10 TO YUMA
5. Tommy Lee Jones, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

supporting actress
1. VANESSA REDGRAVE, Atonement
2. SUSAN SARANDON, Enchanted
3. SAMANTHA MORTON, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
4. ROMOLA GARAI, Atonement
5. CATE BLANCHETT, I'm Not There

I don't think there's anything worse on the planet than someone who wants to brag about the mass of his balls.

Oh no, jeffmcm? What about people like yourself who brag on movie messageboards of masturbating to torture porn? I would have thought that was far worse. Still, each to their own.

May 2nd, 2008.

I'm shocked that Atonement is still seem as a front runner after being widely seen. It'll not be a hit, it gonna get solid but not great reviews, it has little shot of do much on the critics awards, and I'd bet it get only the tech guilds and a SAG for MacVoy; It does have a bigger shot getting a GG and BFCA noms given how those guys nominated what they believe the academy will go for. Still it does feel for me far more like a weak 5th place nominee without a director nod (and a lot of Universal help to get there) than a serious front runner.

Beowulf? Someone's whacking off to too many fantasy movies.

Acting noms for The Golden Compass? Riiiiiight. Sam Elliott nommed for playing another cowboy? Dakota Blue? No.

Yuma noms: No.

BP noms for Love in the Time of Cholera and Beowulf: No.

Finally just saw Into the Wild, and to me it definitely feels like there's a Best Picture nomination in there, and big potential for Hal Holbrook.

Filipe, have you seen Atonement?

It's a fantastic film. Easily the best of the year for me. It'll do some good business. It's a solid adaption of a much loved book. I think it'll do just fine.

The top contenders for Oscars are always the pictures you haven't seen yet. It's a testament to the power of the myth-making apparatus of Hollywood filmmaking - our eternal, unshakable belief that the NEXT one will be the most important film ever, and will change our lives. Even after a million let-downs, we still believe it. That's Hollywood!

Whenever someone says "Do people really think" I gotta laugh because, quite obviously, people do. And considering the curveballs the Academy has thrown us occasionally - no Dreamgirls, etc - it is surely within the bounds of reality that a prestigious British movie (which is about a war, sort of) with a talented cast and (seemingly) top notch production values could win Best Picture. Especially when the other contenders are dark-as-night or light and quirky flicks, which I would think have less of a chance at Oscar gold than something like Atonement.

And I think the lack of "Atonement will win Best Picture and there's no chance it won't" speak is what's keeping it at the top. I think Focus are playing this one very well.

Sam Elliott rocks.

If you think DreamWorks ever said that about dreamgirls, kami, you are listening to falsehoods.

And believe me, focus ain't thrilled to be this week's frontrunner. They are, however, thrilled to have the only serious period movie in the race and to get the benefit of all the people who were wild for Pride & Prejudice.

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