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October 21, 2007
Strikingly Wrongheaded
Without the real threat of SAG and or DGA refusing to cross WGA picket lines, there is no chance of WGA “winning” a strike… moreover, the union could do a pretty good job of dragging down the SAG strike that is much more dangerous for the studios come next spring.
It’s really simple. The WGA can cause losses and some damage by walking out now. But simply by force of circumstance aka the date, the WGA would floating out on a raft on its own, with the studios virtually forced to hold their firmest positions, since whatever they negotiate might the WGA would be used as a template for the other two unions that threaten to go out next year. As a result, any deal the studios would be willing to make would have to be a deal that they would happily offer all around… in other words, a weak deal.
Excuses and rationalizations mean nothing to the future of these negotiations. No one wants a strike. It’s not very good business, aside from creating the opportunity to dump some bad contracts. But overall, it’s not good. The more micro you try to get in your conception of it, the more lost in a sea of mental diarrhea you become.
The unions want more money for their efforts. The studios would be happy to keep paying the same amount they are now, threaten with less, and don’t want to be partners with anyone looking closely over their shoulders.
That’s the whole thing, in a nutshell.
Journalists play an interesting role in all of this for the first time in memory. The media has become both more pliable and better at pretending to be independent-minded than ever. If Barry Meyer wants to signal to the WGA that the studios mean business, he phones his threats in to The New York Times, which runs it without analysis. If Ron Meyer, Brad Grey or Amy Pascal want to take a position, Nikki Finke is there to do the dirty work. If Nikki is snapping at you, call Anne Thompson or someone at the New York Times to try to clean up the mess.
Nikki’s latest on the potential strike is just loaded with goodies. Pascal v Lynton, Grey v Moonves, Meyer v Zucker, Pete Chernin and Bob Iger completely uninterested in playing bullshit games in the media because they don’t have to, and Jeffrey Katzenberg, getting pissed on from all over, as he so often does.
But none of the chatter really matters. There is no “fixing” this, because the WGA hasn’t “won” a strike in anyone’s memory… least of all the 1988 strike, which ended because the writers wanted to go back to work, not getting much more than they would have out of negotiations had they never struck. Five months made the writers a lot hungrier than the studios for a settlement.
Moreover, looking back on the longest WGA strike ever, there was no significant loss in box office in the next year after the settlement. Moreover, the television season showed little damage from the strike ending in August, aside from some shows rolling out as much as two months after expected. Roseanne, Murphy Brown, and Empty Nest were amongst the fall hits launching out of the strike period. Many are talking about the amount of reality programming that’s out there, but equally if not more significant is the change in how people program and watch television. The idea of a season is not what it used to be. If people want to watch a show, shutting it down for four months will not keep them from coming back. Moreover, with the system as it is, a four-month strike, for instance, could easily lead to the current TV year ending in July instead of May. Neilsen will adjust, thanks.
Another piece of history from the 1988-89 strike. Eight months after the WGA was out for five months, SAG settled on a deal months in advance of the end of their contract. SAG got some movement on cable residuals in that deal, but the need to avoid another work shortage overwhelmed the potential of a more aggressive move by SAG.
Eighteen years later, it’s déjà vu all over again.
Want to read the WGA quote when the strike ended? ''After a long and difficult strike, we now have an agreement that provides significant improvements for writers, and we have fought back attempts to permanently undo past gains.''
In other words, they didn’t get stuck doing givebacks (which the studios never expected to get) and got a few modest increases. A third of the WGA board rejected the proposal that turned out to be the end of the strike because the offer was essentially the same as one that had been on the table and rejected two months earlier.
The impetus for the WGA to hold its water is greater this time, as they have six months to wait before the other unions can also be in play and not fourteen.
The only way for the WGA to have real power in shutting down Hollywood is to go out in tandem with SAG and/or DGA. At that point, down is down, not semi-shut down. And both unions have to be willing to sit for six months to get what they want long term. The likely scenario if they do not is a weak deal for both that will look worse and worse as new delivery systems start generating more money.
And all the gossip about who thinks what and why… just a distraction from the real issues, which are not sexy or all that interesting… unless you are a working member of a Hollywood union and you want to be able to pay your rent. (The members who don’t have to worry about their rent really don’t ever need to strike… until they do have to worry about their rent years from now.)
Personally, I support the unions against the studios on principle. I think that some expectations are too demanding, but the basics should be addressed and the unions have enormous potential power on issues from residuals to gross points players to runaway production, much of which could actually help the studios in their goals. There is plenty of money for everyone. Actors should be able to make a living from a reasonable amount of work. Writers should be compensated and respected in numbers close to their other key talent players on films. Directors should... well, they should be pretty happy... things seem to be going their way most of the time.
But right now, a WGA strike is not a gun to Hollywood's head... unless it's that gun from the circus that has a flag with "Bang!" written on it that pops out when you shoot it. And strategically, they have the most to lose from walking out now... at least unless they are ready to wait six months to start serious negotiations. And what sense would that make?
Posted by poland at October 21, 2007 06:27 PM
Comments
Heat; let me make it real easy for you. FOX... DISNEY... CBS... WARNERS (to an extent but they produce most of the quality shows on TV) and NBC/UNIVERSAL OWN TV NETWORKS. You are missing the whole point of the WGA STRIKE. IT'S NOT ABOUT MOVIES. IT'S ABOUT TV! In this day and age; where TV networks are own and operated by many of the movie studios. Your myopic view on this strike continues to be rather FILM-CENTRED. When movies do not propel writers to walk at the the start of Sweeps.
Posted by: IOIOIOI
at October 21, 2007 11:28 PM
IOI, I'm no expert in any of this, but I do know that every scripted show that will be airing in November has already been written.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at October 22, 2007 01:40 AM
I have taken my new position on the strike from noted German Philosopher Hans Schultz.
"I KNOW NOTHING....."
someone wake me up when it's over.
Posted by: anghus
at October 22, 2007 04:19 AM
anghus; nice position that your brother must truly appreciate ;). Jeff; you are either responding like a dick or responding honestly. I simply do not know. So I will clarify for my special hombre out there in the L of A. If the writers strike in November. They have the potential of screwing up the second-half of the TV season. A TV season that produces TV boxsets that represent a tidy profit for the studios, and would be lacking in material that would lead to be costing 40 bucks DOR.
Posted by: IOIOIOI
at October 22, 2007 04:58 AM
I support the writers and believe in strength in numbers with actors and directors. Be realistic, if the DGA contract were the first of the 3 to be expiring, it would probably be settled right now. The proverbial knife in the back is not far from the invisible hand that guides large masses. IOIOIOI, the studios can proportionately save much more money than the writers can lose while the strikes merge and force majeure may be a last resort.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 07:45 AM
I meant the invisible hand that guides market forces, but masses works too.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 07:49 AM
Nikki F is so... well, usable. Her latest posting is just hilarious. Here's my favorite part --
-- I understand the studio and network bigwigs thought their renouncement of residual rollbacks was a "really big deal" concession that would get the writers in a positive frame of mind. I'm told the moguls were genuinely shocked at the WGA spin to members that it wasn't much of a concession since it never should have been on the table in the first place -- and there are dozens and dozens of other AMPTP-proposed rollbacks for the guild to still worry about. "Right now, the attitude is that we made a major move, and they're kicking sand in our face," a mogul told me. --
LMAO. I mean, say what you want about the WGA, but the AMPTP can't be surprised about this. Come on, it would be like someone stealing your wallet, then you thanking them and agreeing to be best buds when they gave it back a month later.
I look forward to her next ridiculously positive WGA article after her call with Patric Verrone and company. Nikki writes what you tell her too.
Posted by: MASON
at October 22, 2007 08:50 AM
Shockingly simplistic and full of holes, David. I really expected better.
The '88 writer's strike which ended in August started in March. It couldn't effect the television season, as it was already written for that season. They could push back production on fall television season. The AMPTP had 3 months worth of hiatus to really make writer's hurt. To strike in November, means half the scripts of the current season will be incomplete. Contrary to Jeff's assertion, Novembers scripts are not written. The "Heroes" script that starts shooting in two days, isn't written. Most sitcom scripts are actually written after the table read.
SAG & DGA are not refusing to cross picket lines. They are forbidden from honoring other unions strikes. It's in their deals with the AMPTP.
Before making these blanket statements, look at the DGA & SAG. SAG is rife with infighting and going to war with AFTRA. The DGA is not just directors. It's majority is ADs, members that don't get residuals for their work. They make sweetheart deals because they don't have anything to gain. Maybe the DGA makes a deal in November, maybe it refuses to in solidarity. In either case, it's foolish to compare '88 to now, when what you are proposing more fits the schedule of the '88 strike.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 02:17 PM
I vaguely recall that during the last WGA strike, ABC "remade" episodes of Mission: Impossible using old scripts from the original CBS series. (The segments were shot in Australia, I believe.) I wonder -- seriously -- if something like that could happen again.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at October 22, 2007 03:18 PM
Yes, they did, Joe. Did you watch those episodes though? Horrible!
The second thing to keep in mind, is that the latest trend is reinventing old shows like "Battlestar Galactica" and "The Bionic Woman." It would deeply hurt future development of those types of shows if the audience got dated scripts on old concepts.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 03:39 PM
Mason, Hendhogan, who will help the directors do on-set rewrites? Wouldn't changing the shooting script constitute crossing a picket line?
There may be validity to what Nikki was told about pilot season being caput right now, because it's development season for scripts that would normally be picked up in January.
Who cares if the WGA rides into renegotiation on the coattails of the DGA? Labor is labor, let the big dogs loose.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 04:09 PM
T. Holly,
Depends on who does it. Obviously, a writer can't. But I haven't met a producer who didn't think he couldn't make a script better on his own. And, in the case of "Mission Impossible," they used scab writers around the fourth month of the strike to make changes to the old scripts.
And yes, a strike in November would dampen pilot season. If the strike is short, the season can be saved.
Labor is not labor. A major contention for the WGA is that residuals are threatened by broadcast over the internet. The majority of members in the DGA are not directors. 1st & 2nd ADs outnumber them, and they don't (for the most part) get residuals. The DGA doesn't have as much to lose if the AMPTP gets its way.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 04:31 PM
Don't shooting scripts get filed with the WGA? Isn't the WGA going to fine productions if they alter scripts during a strike? Call me unrealistic, but can't the WGA monitor script pages that are used on-set? If not, the NLRB should hear about it.
It wouldn't surprise me if there's a defacto strike impacting pilot scripts right now.
It doesn't weaken the WGA to let the DGA get their licks in. The more cards face up, the better. March to August is the dumbest time to strike, but any other time will be plenty bloody.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 05:03 PM
http://artfulwriter.com/archives/wga_issues/
Oh, just see the 10/20 entry.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 05:30 PM
After October 31st, there will be no deal between AMPTP and WGA unless both sides agree to extend the current deal. If WGA decides to strike, the AMPTP is not beholden to the WGA. NLRB has no stake in this. All the WGA can do is fine their own members who cross the line and deny entry to guild after strike to those non-members that crossed the line.
If the DGA negotiates a deal, that will become the template used for all other guilds. That the DGA isn't as concerned about residuals is cause for concern.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 05:40 PM
Good blog. Been reading it.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 05:41 PM
IO... I know! I get that. And what I am saying is that the deal will not be made based on that... because in the end, it is about EVERYTHING. Like I keep saying... it's not micro, it's macro.
And Hendhogen... I remember the 88 strike... I lost my TV production job because of it. It's not an abstraction to me. (My guess is that it isn't for you either.)
Do we both agree that SAG is not a non-issue? Do we both agree that SAG is a bigger problem for the producers? Do you think SAG isn't willing to strike?
If you think SAG is just going to wilt anyway, then you have a point and it doesn't matter when WGA strikes in that regard. You are right. But SAG needs significant deal changes more so than WGA. (Agree or disagree?)
And while a March start to the '88 strike was kinda dumb, the last two months of the strike, writers and others would have been working, no?
So what is you theory? That if the WGA goes out on Nov 1 that the studios cave by the new year?
And that DGA will sell everyone else out and that WGA will have to abide by the DGA deal?
Just trying to figure out what you think here...
Posted by: David Poland
at October 22, 2007 06:16 PM
Having no ability to enforce the integrity of a shooting script, during a writers' strike, is quite a handicap.
Is it crossing the picket line if a director makes script changes during a writers' strike? How about if the director accepts changes to the script that the producer makes for the director --is that crossing the picket line? If the answers are no, even if the producer is also the writer, then that's a problem, and the studios should be stockpiling finished scripts that productions can have directors and producers rewrite without penalty.
If a DGA rep can walk into my editing room and order me not to touch a director's cut, then the WGA can walk onto a set and protect a shooting script during a strike.
The 1st and 2nd A.D.'s may not care about anything other than their payscale, but I can assure you that the DGA negotiating team does.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 06:27 PM
It doesn't even have to be a shooting script, it can be the last script turned in by the writer.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 06:31 PM
Yes, the first one to deal sets the contract. I think the DGA's position on negotiating a deal or not is crucial.
No, the WGA needs the same changes as SAG. SAG is a little ahead in that they have had jurisdiction over animation and have done deals for internet content. SAG also doesn't have to worry about unionizing reality performers.
That said, it all boils down to new media. All unions need a good residual base for new media. In 1985, when the guilds agreed to small residuals while the AMPTP sees where videotape market was, the expectation was that the rate would be negotiated up. That did not happen. The rate has stayed the same for 20 years. To expect a different outcome from the same series of events is the definition of insanity.
I think if the WGA has any chance of attaining its goals, they must strike now. Remember, conventional wisdom had them waiting to get closer to SAG negotiations. A strike only works when the other side isn't prepared for it. They have stockpiled some material, but not enough. And certainly, not enough television scripts.
I think SAG picking a fight with AFTRA is potentially disastrous, especially if AFTRA succeeds in becoming a part of the AFL-CIO. Then there will be duo negotiations going on with the AMPTP, which will allow the studios to play one off the other.
As far as, the last two months of '88, you are correct, but the three previous months just took the fight out of everybody. By that time, it was just a matter of figuring out how to get out and try to save face.
This is already a long post, so I'll save my thoughts of what happens should the strike hit til later, if you're still curious to know.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 06:44 PM
T Holly:
The only one crossing the picket line is a writer. DGA and SAG cannot strike Nov. 1. It is a part of the deals they struck in the past. They can only strike after June 30th. A director or actor can choose to honor the strike, but they leave themselves open to a law suit and they would lose.
Again, the WGA has no control over production, just it's own members. No guild does.
The strike rules are posted on the WGA site if you want to know what can and cannot be done during a strike.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 06:50 PM
Hendhogan, I was just trying to say that the WGA should collect the last steps on scripts that are turned in before a strike, if there is a strike, and make sure no director or producer works on the scripts, even if that person is also the writer. I'm sorry, you've been very kind, but I just need to measure power that way.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 22, 2007 07:15 PM
Yes, but the guild has no standing in whether a director or producer writes, unless they are a member of WGA. A non-member director or producer writing is the same as a scab writing. Can't stop it. Can just make life difficult for scab after it all settles out.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 22, 2007 07:41 PM
I contend it's more than scab writing, I'm saying the SIGNATORIES would be treading and trading in worse things -- illegal (anti-trust) activities, AFL-CIO (labor) violations, being cited and fined.
If paralysis has already set in for pilot season, then striking now won't make it worse. And if not, and the WGA strikes in January, who will hone the pilot scripts before they go *before camera* in February?
If cameras are rolling now in large numbers, and the studios are rushing to get scripts *finished* (a false concept), let them, because there's no way for the studio to prepare for a strike, even *finished scripts* won't reach *go picture* status and some that do will use force majeure to shut and everything holds, waiting for rewrites.
Hitting a tv season in progress can't be enough, so bide your time.
I'll try to *ask* Craig Mazin later, and I'm sure *Dave* thinks I'm crazy!
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 23, 2007 09:06 AM
T. Holly:
I don't think you're getting it. The agreement that requires AMPTP members to use union writers is the agreement that expires October 31. If there is no deal in place to continue that agreement, you can't accuse the AMPTP to be in violation of it.
Paralysis has not set in on writing pilot scripts yet. Producers are pushing for all outstanding scripts to be turned in by Oct. 31 or writer won't get paid. Tweaking on those scripts (if they choose to do so, would have to be done by scabs). And there will be scabs.
Television is the writer's medium. They have more control there than in films. Their only shot is to affect television shows. Several new shows will get cancelled as soon as that last script is shot.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 23, 2007 10:10 AM
Also, there's no requirement in the agreement that AMPTP members hire only WGA writers. It's not an illegal closed shop, it's a union shop. Those employed by signatory companies are required to either join or become Financial Core non-members within 30 days after employment. FiCore non-members are not WGA members, but they can be hired by signatory companies at any time (even during a strike).
There are also the so-called A-H exceptions which are supposed to be minor writing tweaks that are not covered by the MBA and are often performed by directors, producers or actors and others (our strike rules prohibit members of the WGA who are also directors or producers from making such A-H tweaks, but those who aren't WGA members are free to do so).
Posted by: RDP
at October 23, 2007 01:33 PM
Hyphenates have more power. I guess those A-H exceptions were in play when Josh Harnett and the director rewrote his 30 Days part and Sidney Lumet never met his Before the Devil screenwriter, Kelly Masterson, mistaking him for a woman, in an interview.
Shooting scripts don't get sent to the WGA until after principle photography, when the signatory files the tentative writing credits. And scripts can't be turned in by the writer because they are signatory property and, writer beware, confidential material.
hendhogan, I've been looking *non-stop* for unfair labor violations vis-a-vis a simple contract expiration vs. a labor strike and, pathetically, the best I can find is, from a message board no less, "WGA signatories aren't doing business during a WGA strike"... the rest:
Understand -- non-WGA writers are actually free to sell projects to non-signatory companies. Even during a strike. The world of moviemaking that takes place outside of the WGA goes on during a strike.
Be clear: That's non-WGA members, selling to non-WGA signatory parties.
WGA members can't sell to those companies, with or without a strike.
Another thing: During a strike, the WGA signatory companies aren't out there looking to buy from non-WGA writers.
WGA strikes aren't like supermarket strikes. The studios that are WGA signatories don't try to keep buying from scabs. They shut down that side of their business. Executives get laid off, agents get laid off.
So, the notion that you'll get your big break from a WGA company during a strike is illusory.
The ONLY writers working during a WGA strike are non-WGA members involved in non-WGA indie films and other non-WGA stuff.
And yet, when the strike is over, if they sell to a WGA signatory, they can join the WGA and reap the benefits gained by people who had to fight for them, and in the case of a strike risk their careers for them.
What a non-WGA member cannot do is work for a WGA signatory during a strike, and then later join the WGA.
But like I said, that almost never comes up. Since the WGA signatories aren't doing business during a WGA strike.
And one last thing: To join the WGA, all you need to be is employed by a WGA signatory.
You don't have to already be in the WGA in order to get a job with a WGA company. If that were the case, you could argue that the WGA "keeps people out." But it doesn't. Get hired, and you're in.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 24, 2007 08:38 AM
"What a non-WGA member cannot do is work for a WGA signatory during a strike, and then later join the WGA."
This is always the threat, but I can't imagine the Guild ever following through with it as it wouldn't prevent the writer from working for signatory companies after a strike but would prevent the WGA from collecting dues on that writer's future employment.
But, like you said, there's probably not going to be large-scale writing and rewriting going on by non-member writers during a strike anyway (directors and producers might give it a shot, but probably not the ones who are also WGA member writers).
But your earlier posting seemed to be of the notion that the studios would shut down feature film production come November 1st rather than just go with what they have and let the directors/producers/actors/whoever do on-set tweaks. That's not going to be the case.
They're not going to be commissioning new writing, but they've got enough already on the feature film side to keep production going through the end of the DGA and SAG contracts and have plenty of product for 2009. They're not going to shut them down and hold.
Some projects, obviously, aren't going to make it and get put on hold or otherwise delayed or canceled, but there's enough that's ready enough to fill the pipeline for 2009.
TV is a different animal, of course, but the networks aren't going to go dark or anything like that. They'll put something up there. A bunch of new reality shows, reruns, foreign stuff, news programs (though there's potentially some issues there, too). We're not going to tune in and see a test pattern.
"I've been looking *non-stop* for unfair labor violations"
I wouldn't bother looking. If there are any, the Guild's lawyers know about them, just as the AMPTP is already talking about part of our strike rules potentially being in violation of labor laws.
Posted by: RDP
at October 24, 2007 09:29 AM
hendhogan, before you tell me WGA signatories aren't doing business during a WGA strike because the guild forbids them to work, I know. The arguments for and against a strike sooner than later, have not changed. Just another day of caucuses and round the clock sweatshop writing for union represented laborers at U.S. companies.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 24, 2007 09:31 AM
hendhogan, I thought you'd appreciate this comment:
#36:
I understand the bargaining strength of a combined WGA-SAG strike threat, and of the mutual and overlapping interests both union have regarding some issues. But what I haven’t seen is anyone acknowledging that many of the WGA’s proposals mean diddly squat to SAG.
There’s only power in a combined front if it is, indeed, a combined front. Will SAG care about going to the mat on, say, animation jurisdiction? (That’s an easy one — the answer is a flat no.) Can Craig or Ted point out the areas where the two unions demands are in sync, besides the obvious areas of New Media (“the real battle”) and DVD residuals (“the lost cause”)?
Posted by: Interested at October 24, 2007 4:27 PM
http://artfulwriter.com/archives/2007/10/sag_on_a_possib.html#comments
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 24, 2007 04:56 PM
i do. i actually have craig's site up on a separate tab (like this one). i refresh throughout the day to see what people are saying.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 25, 2007 11:40 AM
Me too. Someone tossed around force majeure in there. I'll have to straighten them out later.
Posted by: T. Holly
at October 26, 2007 02:09 PM
i read that too. but straighten out in what way? the force majeure clause in contracts includes work stoppages.
Posted by: hendhogan
at October 26, 2007 02:31 PM
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