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Your comment regarding Daniel Day-Lewis' performance is so silly, David. We know you feel like Danny Huston would have somehow been better in the role, but to indicate that Day-Lewis' turn was the slightest bit derivative is to have seen something in your head that wasn't on screen.

And since when (and how) is Michael Clayton the Best Picture frontrunner? I know it's a weird year, but there ARE some tea leaves out there.

Otherwise, good column, and I agree. The acceptability of films in play this year is vast and, therefore, intriguing. I like a lot of stuff this season.

If I could vote, I would vote for Marion Cotillard. Hers is a truly magnificent, blazing performance.

I think he was suggesting that Day-Lewis is reminiscent of John Huston's character in Chinatown, no?

Kris - DDL has admitted it. So silly of me to notice it before he started doing interviews. (And I am hardly alone. Maybe you should check out Todd's review in your paper.)

No Rob... I am suggesting that DDL is channeling Huston. I would never have thought of Danny Huston were it not for it being so clearly Huston's voice and mannerisms.

It is, in many ways, a brilliant performance. But it is, in many ways, an imitation.

Granted I haven't seen TWBB yet, but I'm having a hard time believing that DDL fails to give more than an imitation. So what if he uses Huston as a jumping-off point?

Kris, are you saying that Michael Clayton won't get a BP nomination? Perhaps there are tea leaves and I'm sure you talk to a lot of Academy members, but it's November and aren't these all essentially just guesses? Well-informed guesses, to be sure, but guesses none the less. It's seems odd to take David to task on that when you know just as little about what is actually going to get nominated as he does.

I haven't seen TWBB yet, but I would find it hard to believe that Danny Huston is capable of delivering a performance as accomplished as anything DDL has done and I certainly don't think Danny Huston is capable of giving a deep, subtle performance like I know that DDL is capable. Again, I'll have to reserve judgment until I actually see the film, but there just seems something off about comparing one of the greatest actors ever to a guy who was in 30 Days of Night (although I love Danny Huston in The Constant Gardener and Children of Men, not to mention the Proposition).

Let's not get hysterical. I didn't say it was just an imitation.

And Noah... oy. You know Danny Huston's limits based on a bad movie he did? Are back to judging Ridley Scott without seeing the Duelists when you judge DH without seeing Ivansxtc?

Do you really think that, say, Dustin Hoffman can't be outacted by Ben Whishlaw in Perfume because Hoffman is Hoffman?

But mostly... have you really decided that you know what an actor is capable of before you have seen the work... especially when they have a limited history? What is that?

Would you think that Chewetel Elijafor was much of an actor based on American Gangster? Did you write off Mark Wahlberg at Rock Star? Have you seen Jessica Lange in King Kong?

Arguing for Daniel Day Lewis in the affirmative is one thing, but "I know what that actor can and cannot do based on supporting roles in half a dozen films" is pretty shitty stuff... almost as bad as someone "disqualifying" your opinion because of one column or a few blog comments.

^^^Which it sounds like you're encouraging.

David, you're overstating, that's the point,. Judging by what you wrote, you think Day-Lewis is ripping Huston off, that the performance is "nothing we haven't seen" elsewhere. Silly. Revealing of your personal distaste rather than any sort of level-headed assessment.

Noah, I don't personally think Clayton will be a Best Pic nominee. That is correct. But even if I did, to call it the frontrunner is pretty baseless.

And FTR, I;ve seen every Huston performance and every Day-Lewis performance. The latter acts circles around the former. Character acting brilliance is one thing. Commanding the screen is another.

Danny has some ways to go.

David, I am a big fan of Danny Huston. I've absolutely adored him in Ivansxtc and thought he was one of the best things about Birth.

I already said before that I have to reserve judgment until I see Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood and perhaps your judgment will be right on. It's just that for someone who hasn't seen it, it's a big stretch and I can't see it because I haven't seen it.

I definitely would never write off Danny Huston and I didn't do that. I just don't think that Daniel Day Lewis would ever act in a movie like 30 Days of Night, which I think brings up a difference in the kinds of actors they are and the work that they hope to do. Yes, Danny Huston might be the only thing in 30 Days of Night that is worthwhile, but for me it is unfathomable to think that the man who was so brilliant in Age of Innocence, My Left Food, In the Name of the Father, etc. would take cues from Danny Huston.

Again, I think Huston is a great actor, but I don't put him in the same league as Lewis and if DDL's performance is really an imitation of Huston, then it sounds like a step back for DDL.

It wasn't about what I think Danny Huston is capable of, it's about what I know that Daniel Day Lewis is capable of. And I have yet to see a performance by Huston (even in Ivansxtc) that has matched the subtlety and humanity that Day-Lewis has brought to roles as varied as Last of the Mohicans and The Ballad of Jack and Rose.

"I just don't think that Daniel Day Lewis would ever act in a movie like 30 Days of Night, which I think brings up a difference in the kinds of actors they are and the work that they hope to do."

Or maybe Danny Huston has to take what he can get sometimes, like a lot of perfectly fine actors.

"I just don't think that Daniel Day Lewis would ever act in a movie like 30 Days of Night, which I think brings up a difference in the kinds of actors they are and the work that they hope to do."

Or maybe Danny Huston has to take what he can get sometimes, like a lot of perfectly fine actors.

it did seem, at times, that ddl was doing a john houston impersonation.....not unlike john malkovich in 'beowulf' doing his bette davis impersonation....i found it all pretty amusing.....

Posting on here really sucks sometimes, wtf!!!

Dear God, please let Danny Huston continue acting, and not return to directing. And if he must direct, please keep him away from great books like Thornton Wilder's Theophilus North.

Of course, Brack...most actors have to take what they get offered. Or they could exercise patience, like Mr. Day-Lewis has, and only act in films they are truly passionate about. Danny Huston has built up a solid resume and I'm sure he has enough money, so I don't quite understand the choice of doing a film like 30 Days of Night when he could have easily just waited until something better had come along. But your point is well taken.

I don't think it works that way for everybody. There's only so many actors in film, and not everyone has the ego to think "I'm just going to wait for the perfect movie to fall on my lap." Daniel Day-Lewis been around a lot longer than Danny Huston career wise, and has an Oscar as well as multiple nominations. Yeah, the Academy Awards aren't everything, but if you get one, you're guaranteed to have your choice of decent scripts, as well as be the "star" like Daniel Day-Lewis is in almost all of his films now. I haven't seen any movies that say DANNY HUSTON over them. That's the point I'm trying to make. Wait till he at least wins an Oscar.

Well, Daniel Day Lewis wasn't ALWAYS an Oscar winner. But he still waiting patiently after getting a break in My Beautiful Laundrette. Not to say he always chose the greatest of projects, but he didn't seem moved to act unless he had something to say, which seems like a true artist to me. I think Danny Huston is a fantastic actor, who definitely had a leg up on most actors by virtue of being the son of John Huston and the half-sister of Anjelica and the one-time husband of Virginia Madsen.

Perhaps it all boils down to this: Danny Huston is not as good looking as Daniel Day Lewis and as a result will not be offered the same roles? I still think DDL is a much more accomplished artist, but perhaps we just need to see Danny Huston get a role like In the Name of the Father.

Yeah no way is Clayton the frontrunner... if there is one it's Atonement.

BTW, is there really any other prognosticators besides Poland who are calling Hairspray as a Best Picture nominee? Michael Clayton I seriously doubt though it wouldn't be shocking if it made the cut, though shocking would be the word if Hairspray did.

It's not that I think it's a bad movie, but it's disappointing to me that Poland lets his own personal taste so heavily dictate what is supposedly his objective take on the field. I mean, I'd love to believe Before The Devil Knows You're Dead is at this point really in the running, but the quite frankly ludicrous placement of Hairspray makes the entire list worthless.

Or have I been reading these lists the wrong way? Is it meant to be Poland's personal taste or something objective?

PPP, please feel free to disagree, but this crap about it being muy personal opinion first is bull.

As I keep saying, nominations and winning are different issues. I have zero sense of any film being likely to be a winner now, much less a front runner.

Atonement has been sliding without support from talent, which has meant a distinct lack of screenings. Its status is 100% media at this point... not that it won't get in.

The Hairspray thing - which I am guessing is more YOUR bias issue than mine - is simple. There is almost always a light film. Lars is dead. Juno plays very young. That leaves Hairspray, a hit with a big star who is likely to be nominated. If Sweeney is in, that makes it much harder for Hairspray and things get weird... with Savages - another title the media doesn't want to get behind - as more likely.

Hairspray won't be in my Top Five for this year.

And Michael Clayton is where it is because it is the ONLY film to have earned that position. Everything else, though No Country seems to be on track for now, is just hype at this point... particularly Juno and There Will Be Blood. American Gangster is already slowing as a contender. Clayton can fall to #4 or lower in a second if Sweeney and Charlie Wilson work. Other films can also get stronger. There may be a late, hard push for Kite Runner or Devil or Into The Wild or a unanimity of feeling behind Atonement when voting audience finally get to it.

But none of that has happened yet. What has happened is Clayton getting spectacular reviews, it being a movie for adults, doing very strong box office for the genre, and starring a guy who The Academy loves.

Anne Thompson got it right today... it's DGA in the 5 slot and DDL for Blood... that is about it. Anyone who talks to Academy types who have seen it knows that. And Anne is a supporter of that film.

Hairspray is the kind of film that happens when the other films shake out. It can't win. But it can get nominated. Were Pride & Prejudice in this season instead of the one it was in, it would be pushing Hairspray out. But there is not film like that out there to grab that slot. Juno might, but it is a longshot... even though it could well gross $50 million.

I'm curious why on an already anemic list, Amy Ryan from Gone Baby Gone isn't ranking in the best supporting actress category. She's admittedly not a "name" but she's received quite a bit of praise, is in strong position to pick up a critic's award and will have Miramax behind her.

I'm not saying she's guaranteed, but how about a mention on a list that's already padded with an Ashley Judd performance for a film that will likely be bumped into next year.

You know what... she should be on there, ASD. My bad. Correcting that now.

And I took the McAdams thing off also, which is not going to happen (a 2007 release) at this point.

Because David doesn't think it's an awards film. It's not, but the performance is a contender. It'll probably end up biting him on the butt, but we all have our vices.

Dave, here's a question - if Sweeney Todd is good enough for the final does that mean that Hairspray is as good as gone from the best picture lineup? Two musicals seems unlikely.

Oh, I must say - I generally don't know anything about the race so I really can't comment about who deserves to be where, but Joe Wright for Atonement at #11?

I too think Joe Wright should be rated higher up on the list of director hopefuls.

And no disrespect to the five performances in lead actor (the only two I haven't seen being Depp and DDL), but I think James McAvoy's gonna knock one of them out of there.

I liked Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, but I don't think it's as awards worthy as a lot of people are thinking it is. But I've been wrong before.

No love for Brad Pitt's Jesse James' performance? It was truly remarkable. I really hope the Academy doesn't completely dismiss the film.

I don't know what is more ridiculous, saying Michael Clayton is the frontrunner (LOL) or saying that DDL does not do John Huston. Of course is channeling Noah Cross, quite deliberately. But the truth is that performance is not any more brilliant than anything else he's ever done.

I do think there's a good chance Clayton will be nominated - to call it the frontrunner is either bad predicting or else a ruse to disguise the film you really think is the frontrunner. If the movie had captivated the box office, perhaps. Right now it's in the luck-to-be-nominated slot.

Atonement
No Country
(the locks)

Then:
gangster or Charlie Wilson's (or something else)
Clayton or Kite Runner
Into the Wild (it's the one I hear most people saying they saw and loved)

Those are mine for now. not that it means anything. Noah is right when he says these are just dumb guesses that should have no meaning beyond that.

You know, BiP... I keep on saying it... THERE IS NO FRONTRUNNER.

Someone has to be on the top of the list. And there is perfectly reasonable logic for Clayton being there. But it isn't even a lock to be nominated, much less win.

Everyone gets so weird this time of year.

Don't say Atonement is a lock at least until it has opened in America. Weren't people calling Dreamgirls a lock last year too before it even opened.

David, please reconcile these two statements: "THERE IS NO FRONTRUNNER" (here) "The understated frontrunner" (your charts).

I mean, what do you expect people to think?

Yeah, I see what you're saying, DP. But no, Kamikaze, unlike Dreamgirls Atonement has been seen by many many people. Dreamgirls appears to be the catch-all for every movie people call a frontrunner when the fact is, Dreamgirls was a very specific type of film and was shut out for very specific reasons. For every Dreamgirls there are films that were considered one of the strongest contenders early on. Finding your winner is tougher when it's the defacto frontrunner too early (Saving Private Ryan, for instance) - which is why there is NO WAY to call a winner right now or even a frontrunner. Why Atonement keeps topping the list is because it is the one that, right now, seems to have the most potential at getting a BP nod.

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