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November 03, 2007

Friday Estimates by Klady - 11/3

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Posted by poland at November 3, 2007 07:55 AM

Comments

American Gangstger is probably going to do close to $50 million, this weekend. Great campaign by Universal and the rest of the studio's should thank them - even I got to see the film, earlier this week on DVD. The piracy debate is officially OVER. Now stop running those obnoxious ads in movie theaters.

Bee Movie underperformed a bit, but that had to be the most obnoxious ad campaign I had ever seen. This is coming from some who loved Seinfeld, the show. I have to wonder if a lot or parents were just sick of seeing him and decided NOT to take their kids.

Posted by: Geoff [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 08:22 AM

Wow! That's a disappointing opening day figure for "Bee Movie," especially considering the blitzkrieg of hype and (overall) decent reviews.
DW had better hope that it gets the usual 'toon pick-me-up on Saturday and Sunday because all they basically have is three days.
"Fred Claus" will gobble up the "family" audience--and several other key demographics as well--next weekend, and "Mr. Magorium" and "Enchanted" immediately follow in its heels.
I still say that "Bee" should have opened in the same early October slot as DW's "Shark Tale" three years ago.
This is likely to go down as another bone-headed '07 studio scheduling blunder (e.g., opening "Spider-Man 3," "Shrek 3" and "Pirates 3" in the same month, thereby guaranteeing that none of them truly live up to their b.o. potential).
Hat's off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie that we've all seen countless times before (and better). They really did turn it into an "event" by emphasizing the film's delusions of epic grandeur.
Even with a steep decline in weekend two, it'll be sitting pretty through Thanksgiving since it's the only big new "adult" movie in the marketplace. ("Lions for Lambs" is going to be a complete non-starter, trust me.) Unlike DW and "Bee Movie," Universal was very shrewd in their choice of an opening date.
I knew there was a tremendous "wanna see" for "AG," but I still think that boffo Friday figure is going to surprise a lot of people.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 08:35 AM

What is the big deal with "Enchanted". I've been seeing that same trailer over and over and it just gets lamer each time. Wouldn't it have gone straight to DVD just a few years ago?

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 08:45 AM

"Enchanted" has Mouse House muscle behind it: never underestimate their ability to turn a rock into a cash cow.
Hell, they were even able to milk $40-million-plus out of straight-to-video-worthy dreck like "Underdog" last summer.
And don't get me started on "The Game Plan."
Whether it's good, bad or simply mediocre, "Enchanted"--simply by virtue of the Disney imprimatur--is guaranteed to at least "open" during the Thanksgiving weekend. And it'll probably do a lot more than just "open."

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:15 AM

Bee Movie's 52% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes decent? Too much Seinfeld and not enough movie ads. But the movie just looks awful, and the scene Jerry showed on last night's Conan was ridiculous and not funny.

I think American Gangster getting leaked did nothing but build up the hype, as anyone who pays attention to the entertainment media knew this happened. Free press.

Posted by: brack [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:19 AM

Enchanted looks a wonderful movie that may deliver what Stardust did not.

Posted by: brack [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:20 AM

And that $1.1-million Friday estimate for "Martian Child" should be an embarrassment for New Line.
You can be sure that if it was "Disney's 'Martin Child'" it would have opened at a more opportune time of the year and been properly marketed.
Apparently NL can only handle the p.r. campaign of one release at a time: and right now it's all-"Golden Compass"-all-the-time.
I wish I could offer some first-hand pro or con commentary on "Enchanted," but Disney has strictly forbidden Northeastern Ohio press from seeing the film (despite a plethora of w.o.m. "promo" screenings).
Not sure when they're going to grant us "permission:" possibly not until Monday evening the 19th if tradition holds.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:29 AM

"Bee Movie" got extremely enthusiastic reviews in the New York Times (Scott), EW (Gleiberman), the New York Observer (Reed), and most of the reviews that I've seen (excepting that buffoon in USA Today) have been quite positive.
I only gave "BM" a 2 1/2 star rating, so I'm obviously on the lower end of the grading scale. I thought it was OK, but nothing special.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:40 AM

Hat's off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie ...

The sales job is not at all brilliant, it is boneheaded. Look at the banner ads running online.

From ... Academy Award Winner Brian Grazer

Strike One.

Academy Award Winner Denzel Washington

Strike Two.

Academy Award Winner Russell Crowe

Strike Three -- yerrrrrrr OUT!

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 09:54 AM

Hmm. I'm not sure I see what's boneheaded about trumpeting the participation of three Oscar winners in a movie's ads.
It just plays along with that whole "event" aura of (self) importance which has made "AG" a "must-see" among adult moviegoers.
Seems to me that they did their job well. And they definitely picked a great opening date.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:16 AM

Not sure what the pre-emptive "Enchanted" hating is about. It's not bad, and Amy Adams is spectacular in it. Like, should-get-an-Oscar-nomination-even-though-she-won't spectacular.

Posted by: chris [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:24 AM

In what capacity did you see "Enchanted," Chris?
As a working critic, or as someone who got a free ticket to a promo screening?
Disney's northeastern Ohio flunkies have expressly forbidden press from seeing the film yet.
I'd be curious to hear if Disney's "rules" of "Enchantment" are different in other markets.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:31 AM

Chucky: Wrong, sports fan. The ad department hit a grand slam with the very sort of name-checking you love to despise. Look at the scoreboard, Chuckster. Then go back to the minors.

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:37 AM

Hey, Joe: I checked out the "Wendell Baker" dvd box at Best Buy yesterday while hunting for Peter Bogdanovich's Tom Petty doc (which took me forever to find: it was in the music department instead of the movie dept., grrrrrrrrrrrr!), and got a little chuckle when I saw your quote. Very sweet!

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:44 AM

"Look at the scoreboard, Chuckster. Then go back to the minors."

Joe, how can he go back if he never left?

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:58 AM

And for God's sake make sure he doesn't see the trailer for "Charlie Wilson's War." His head will explode.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:59 AM

Didn't pretty much everyone around here think SAW 4 was going to open at 20+ ? I remember the discussions after HOSTEL 2 from many saying "all those death of horror naysayers will be eating their stats when SAW 4 opens to huge numbers"... well guess what? we can now make an official statement - torture porn is DOA at the Boxoffice.

With the American remakes of excellent spanish spookers The Orphanage and [REC] coming next year though, US fans sure won't be missing the ever dwindling thrills of watching victims be tortured.

Terrific opening for GANGSTER but it was a no brainer really. Epic storytelling, A list actors doing their period thang, and it 'looked' like quality adult entertainment. So yhou'd think LAMBS which has similar pedigree should open big but it won't cos its all about perception. And LAMBS is heading for a slaughter.

Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 11:56 AM

43.7 million is considered DOA at the box office?

That said, SAW is more about franchise recognizability than an affirmation of audience bloodlust.

Posted by: ManWithNoName [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 12:34 PM

See, that's the problem with the vivisection subgenre-no legs.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 12:42 PM

Doug r. - somewhere, somehow, Jack Benny owes you a cigar.

Posted by: SJRubinstein [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 01:11 PM

saw 'enchanted' last evening at the el cap and was completely charmed..... not sure amy adams quite qualifies for an oscar nom but at least one song will make the cut....and btw--if this had been released a month ago i'm guessin' every queen in weho would have been susan sarandon for halloween...jus' sayin'....

Posted by: scooterzz [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 01:28 PM

For some medical hiccup I had SAW at 23 cume BO. Dr needs a rest. Ignore previous post

Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 02:12 PM

I'm testing a theory. Does anyone here who thinks that the Bee Movie advertising was excessive and annoying NOT watch NBC's Thursday night block?

Because the only show I ever saw Bee Movies ads with that called attention to themselves was the Office, the only NBC Thursday show I watch. Maybe I tivoed through the ads in Heroes and Bionic Woman but I didn't notice anything unusual in those.

Posted by: PastePotPete [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 03:19 PM

Chucky, best to have not posted today. American Gangster's $40+ opening is exactly what they had in mind. You cannot honestly claim that the campaign was 'boneheaded' unless you are judging it on some aesthetic criteria of your own devising (please share it with us sometime).

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 03:19 PM

man, i saw AG last night in a sold out theatre in Toronto, but the AC wasn't working so they were giving people free tickets on the way out. guess that theatre won't make too much money on that one. Also, if the marketing campaign was "boneheaded", then how did "Under the Tuscan 2" (A Good Year) fail so poorly this time last year?

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 06:31 PM

Chucky needs to just shut up and realise his silly formula means nothing. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Moving on.

Great numbers for Gangster although it meant Michael Clayton and Gone Baby Gone got hit down a peg or two.

Martian Child can join the list of other New Line kids train wrecks - How to Eat Fried Worms, Hoot, etc etc

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 07:00 PM

"Hat's off to Universal, though, for brilliantly selling a mediocre movie"
In a way you're right because starting with the French Connection to Donnie Brasco, to New Jack City, AG seemed the same story....the difference is they are based on REAL LIFE CHARACTERS AND EVENTS, and the star power of AG.
You could call that for a number of movies out there, they're all repeated stories that the public still wants to see again and again.
Thank the appearance of the rappers in AG and JayZ's AG album for getting the kid set out. It has legs for at least another 3-4 weeks. Will it break even? Don't know, because I read that the movie cost $100M the first time and $100M the second time = $200M, add in the actor's salaries; pretty expensive movie isn't it?

This bunching of movies within a limited time frame is going to kill the movie industry and relegate more and more to straight to DVD status.

Posted by: Chicago48 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 07:42 PM

"This bunching of movies within a limited time frame is going to kill the movie industry and relegate more and more to straight to DVD status."

this isn't exactly new.

Posted by: brack [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 08:50 PM

The bunching of movies continues to happen, but less movies are coming out this month and next. So there should be room in the theatres. Nevertheless; Seinfeld got a little cumupence this weekend. Yay!

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 3, 2007 10:05 PM

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Posted by: Gabriel Christou [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 03:11 AM

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you will see PHOTOS of WHO and WHERE Bin Laden and his NETWORKS ARE….

URGENT…PLEASE HELP…. I CANNOT FROM HERE….. I AM BLOCKED ALL AROUND
FORWARD THIS INFORMATION TO THE FBI.

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Posted by: Gabriel Christou [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 03:11 AM


please visit
www.gabrielchristou.blogspot.com

you will see PHOTOS of WHO and WHERE Bin Laden and his NETWORKS ARE….

URGENT…PLEASE HELP…. I CANNOT FROM HERE….. I AM BLOCKED ALL AROUND
FORWARD THIS INFORMATION TO THE FBI.

gavriild@gmail.com

Posted by: Gabriel Christou [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 03:12 AM

people say that Bee Movie's marketing was excessive, but in an era where commercials get fast forwarded, and audiences are fragmenting into smaller groups, it's not going to change.

Back in the day, they used to say you had to market to 100 people to get 1 to be interested. Then it was 1000 to get 1.

Now they say 10,000.

But American Gangster's marketing defies that logic. The marketing felt almost surgical in it's efficiency, and everyone was geared up for it.

maybe less is more in marketing.

Posted by: anghus [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 08:22 AM

I keep thinking about the download factor. On another board, they stated AG was the most downloaded (free) on the internet, which means the studio is missing money. Regardless of the legit box office.
Why dont' the studios take their movies to the internet? put a 10 minute clip online for people to watch to see if they want to continue seeing the movie in the theatre -- or a pay now button (like the WSJ does) so the viewer can download the movie for $4-5??? Is that so impossible?

Posted by: Chicago48 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 09:13 AM

Anghus,
Your remarks on marketing ratios make a lot of sense, especially given the manner in which the entertainment dollar continues to divide itself. I think perhaps a key for people to note would be to remember what Karl Rove did with the Republican campaigns. Don't worry about getting the wider constituents. Just go after your core base and mine the vein ever deeper. I do not live in the US, so I can only remark on the advertising from afar, but it would appear to me that they targeted the core audience through and through and through.
Of course, it will be interesting to see how AG holds up next weekend, when the advertising will then have to contend with that far more powerful tool, the word of mouth. AG does not begin its European roll out until the 16th. From the reactions to the trailer, I think the film will do very well here.

Posted by: The Pope [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 10:10 AM

Anghus,
Your remarks on marketing ratios make a lot of sense, especially given the manner in which the entertainment dollar continues to divide itself. I think perhaps a key for people to note would be to remember what Karl Rove did with the Republican campaigns. Don't worry about getting the wider constituents. Just go after your core base and mine the vein ever deeper. I do not live in the US, so I can only remark on the advertising from afar, but it would appear to me that they targeted the core audience through and through and through.
Of course, it will be interesting to see how AG holds up next weekend, when the advertising will then have to contend with that far more powerful tool, the word of mouth. AG does not begin its European roll out until the 16th. From the reactions to the trailer, I think the film will do very well here.
I just saw on Box-Office Mojo that it hit $46m.
Wow!

Posted by: The Pope [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 10:10 AM

Is it too soon to begin eulogizing "Bee Movie"?
I'm getting "Cat in the Hat" vibes, and that ain't pretty.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 4, 2007 10:40 AM

Get over it movieman.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 5, 2007 05:26 AM

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