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November 13, 2007

Gurus of Gold - 16 Weeks To Go

gurusunderdogs.jpg
The chart above lists all the films and talent that got multiple votes from the Gurus on the films and people we are personally wishing might be nominated... even though they seem to be underdogs now.

Of course, this begs the question... who are your favorite underdogs?

Here's the whole chart, plus the Best Picture chart with everyone's projected, not personal, Top Ten.

Posted by poland at November 13, 2007 02:54 PM

Comments

I vote for WAITRESS - director and screenplay for Adrienne Shelly, Best Actress for Kerry Russell.

Director of course will never happen, but there is a good case for Waitress as original screenplay and an even better case for Kerry Russell as Best Actress, mostly because I don't think another actress gave as moving a performance all year.

I know Katherine Heigl has more pub, but in terms of chops and performance, it's not even close, Kerry Russell was just so much more fabulous.

Posted by: The Carpetmuncher [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 03:13 PM

I think it would be great if Away from Her and specifically Gordon Pinsent could get some recognition.

Two of my other favorite movies from this year are The Host and Black Book and they're so far off the radar that 'underdog' doesn't even describe them.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 04:19 PM

Jeff, I know it didn't get a U.S. release till March or April 07, but I seem to think that BLACK BOOK was actually elligible LAST YEAR, and not this year. Like it was submitted last year (or was at least discussed as a possibility for Foreign candidate) but didn't make the cut.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 04:38 PM

Nice to see DP throwing his weight behind underdog Todd Haynes. I'm Not There is the most breathtaking, inventive, and resonating film I've seen this year, and Blanchett shouldn't be the only nom.

Posted by: lazarus [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 04:46 PM

I am a big fan of AWAY FROM HER as well, love to see it get some recognition. Best chance would seem to be Julie Christie as Supporting?

Posted by: The Carpetmuncher [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 05:10 PM

Amen on Chris Cooper.

The film is good, not great. But Cooper is magnificent in it. Manic, compulsive, egotistical, terse. Amazing performance for a well-established actor.

I'm not holding my breath, again, I wish the film was better.

Posted by: Hopscotch [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 05:22 PM

Anyway catch Dave Karger's crazy-ass awards take in last week's Entertainment Weekly? The long shots on this chart aren't much crazier than his SHOO-INS, which included Tommy Lee Jones for Best Actor in "In the Valley of Elah," Blancett for actress for "Elizabeth II," and "Charlie Wilson's War" and "American Gangster" as Best Pic sure things. Yet he somehow relegated seeming sure things like the "Atonement" actors to the long-shot category off to the side.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 05:25 PM

Just want to clarify the Black Book issue which was raised a few posts above. The film was submitted for the foreign language Oscar last year (and obviously wasn't picked as one of the final 5) but as it didn't open in LA till 2007, so it's eligible for all non-foreign language award categories this year. A couple of examples of this are City of God and Y tu Mama Tambien, both which failed to make the foreign language cut only to be nominated the next year in other categories.

The Lives of Others however was eligible for all categories last year as they foolishly played it in a theater in LA for a week, thus is out of the running for this year.

Posted by: ASD [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 05:54 PM

I can totally get behind Downey Jr. and Zodiac being nominated. Fincher too of course.

I might also include Anna Sophia Robb for supporting actress for Bridge to Terabithia - she was particularly good.

I would also throw in Sam Jackson and Christina Ricci for Black Snake Moan even though I know the film was very divisive. Two difficult roles to do.

Knocked Up should also definitely get a best screenplay nod as well as major kudos for 3:10 To Yuma.

Posted by: Nicol D [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 06:45 PM

I could definitely get behind Zodiac for Best Picture and both Robert Downey Jr and John Carroll Lynch for Best Supporting Actor.

I'd also single out Darjeeling Limited and the script for Best Original Screenplay.

Nicol, I too would love it if Anna Sophia Robb got a push for her very moving performance in Bridge to Terabithia.

Also, Christian Bale really should be nominated for Best Actor for Rescue Dawn, which I finally caught up with and it is without a doubt one of the best performances I've seen all year. Forget the weight gain, the dude puts on a convincing "semi-German" accent for the whole movie. He's a German dude who was raised in the US, so he has a slight German accent and I can't imagine how difficult that is to pull off. It's not a full-blown accent, just the hint of German ancestry in a little twinge in his voice. It's really remarkable. Plus, the scene where he's describing the refrigerator alone should get him nominated.

I also think Julie Delpy deserves a screenplay nomination for 2 Days in Paris. And The Devil Came on Horseback should win Best Documentary.

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:05 PM

Zodiac, Fincher and Downey for sure - also - so loved I'm Not There - simply for its nerve - how about Bale and Ledger from that film?

Posted by: cobhome [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:11 PM

Didn't LIVES OF OTHERS win the Best Foreign Oscar last year or am I having a HEROES style freakout?

Posted by: PetalumaFilms [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:34 PM

Best Picture: Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Best Actor: Gordon Pinsett for Away From Her.
Best Actress: Naomi Watts, Eastern Promises
Best supporting actor: Ben Foster from 3:10 to Yuma.
Best supporting Actress: catherin Keener, Into the Wild
Best Director: Julie Taymor, Across the Universe

Posted by: willoneill [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:34 PM

Eastern Promises is the best film I've seen this year. It would be great for David Cronenberg to get shown some Academy love. I would love to see Viggo get nominated too.

Posted by: Monco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:41 PM

Julie Kavner best actress for The Simpsons Movie.
Also best adapted screenplay and best picture.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 07:51 PM

Petaluma:

Lives of course won best foreign language last year. My point in mentioning it was that since SPC was half-assed in its release last year (they didn't even open it in NYC so it would be eligible for the NYFCC award) it didn't generate enough attention to crack any of the major categories. Specifically Original Screenplay.

Posted by: ASD [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 08:05 PM

Was I hallucinating or did I see 'Bianca' from Lars as a best actress nominee? ;)

Posted by: ployp [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2007 09:22 PM

Some of the comments on this entry are baffling. Not in the content, but how they're written. Oh well.

If Casey Affleck must commit major category fraud to get a nom for Jesse James then so be it. I thought he was amazing. Out of the other longshots I'd be able to get behind Fincher for Directing, Polley for screenplay (I'd be predicting it actually alongside Atonement, No Country, There Will Be Blood and Gone Baby Gone. Away and Gone just two surprises).

I was surprised (pleasantly so) to see three people put down Blonsky for Hairspray.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 04:54 AM

Some longshots I'd like to see:

Ratatouille for Best Picture
Katherine Heigl for Best Actress
Michael Cera for Best Supporting Actor
Carice van Houten for Best Actress

Posted by: Melquiades [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 06:13 AM

"Persepolis" for Best Animated Film; I like it even more than "Ratatouille."
"Lake of Fire" for Best Documentary: an amazing film that no one (literally NO ONE) went to see. Not even the crowd at NYC's Film Forum who routinely turn out in droves for docs on Pakistan farming subsidies and transgendered Malaysian podiatrists showed up for this one.
Kurt Russell, (Best Supporting Actor), "Death Proof."
Samantha Morton, (Best S. Actress), "Control."
Jason Bateman, (Best S. Actor), "Juno."
Molly Shannon, (Best Actress), "Year of the Dog."

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 07:59 AM

Michelle Pfeiffer for B. Supporting Actress in either "Hairspray" or "Stardust." (It's great to have you back, Mich!)
And the dude most likely to be overlooked from "No Country for Old Men" because he has the least showy role: the superb Josh Brolin for Best Actor.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 08:03 AM

Zodiac, Fincher, Downey jr. and Sarah Polley. All deserve recognition.

Posted by: romeoisbleeding [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 08:06 AM

A surprising amount of love for "Away from Her."
I thought it was too echt-Canadian by half, but a Best Actress nod for Julie Christie would be okay in my book.
And while we're resuscitating great British divas from the '60s, how about Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement"? All she has to do is breathe on screen and I'm utterly transfixed.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 08:17 AM

I would love to see Away From Her get some recognition. Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director and Best Actress awards would all be great.

Posted by: montrealkid [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 09:32 AM

I know it won't, but I'd love to see best adapted screenplay for Stardust. It was far and away better than the book it was based upon.

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 09:46 AM

Leslie Mann for Supporting Actress.

Posted by: William Goss [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 11:39 AM

Year of the Dog's Molly Shannon for Best Actress and Control's Sam Riley for Best Actor.

And I'm not going to shut up about Leslie Mann and Amy Ryan for supporting actress.

Affleck was fantastic in Jesse James but I almost perferred his work in Gone Baby Gone. It cut a little deeper than the usual world-weary PI gambit.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 11:44 AM

Maybe I'm just a moron, but I don't understand the voting system here. Can someone explain?

Posted by: brack [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 12:06 PM

I second Van Houten for Actress, and toss in Imelda Staunton (PHOENIX) for Supporting Actress and RATATOUILLE for Original Screenplay.

Posted by: Cadavra [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 12:19 PM

You're only seeing the top of each list, Brack.

Every Guru had one pick in each of the eight categories. The only tally is how many voted for each one.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 04:45 PM

Thanks.

Posted by: brack [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 04:51 PM

If the actual work could exist apart from the film, which in a case this extreme it could not, Tobin Bell would be nominat-able for "Saw IV."

Obviously that's a ludicrous stretch, but in the midst of such a disreputable (but entertaining) series lies a great villainous performance for the ages.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2007 05:59 PM

I know the Weinsteins are a bunch of hopeless gits when it comes to campaining and advertising but, jesus christ, Samantha Morton should be right at the top of everyone's supporting actress list for Control. Whether she deserves it is neither here nor there, it is a very Oscar-friendly (long-suffering wife, plain, lots of screaming) yet barely a whisper.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2007 03:19 AM

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