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November 06, 2007
Why I Now Think This Strike Ends On December 1
Of course, my position on this can change, as always. Things shift. But right now, the equation is getting pretty clear.
1. The Strike has been responded to with a combination of yawns and a significant sense that the strike was premature.
+2. Unlike the DVD Strike of 1988, internet downloading and viewing is in its infancy. While clearly a significant part of the future, writers giving up week after week of work over the notion of how much money they might lose in the future will be hard to keep selling.
+3. Listening to the mantra of the writers on the picket line – “They Won’t Pay Us” – one realizes that if you took a poll on that line and asked how many of those people would be happy to remain on strike over a 10% increase in their annual income, say $20,000 a year, you would see 90% of working writers scurrying back to the computer in a hurry.
The only writers who stand to make more than that made-up, but probably high, $20,000 per person a year, are the writers who make deals above and beyond the guild infrastructure. They are the ones who stand to make real money if the internet delivery blockade can be broken. They are the ones who are not fighting for percentages of pennies.
+4. Studios will have had time to clear out deals they want to clear out, reorganize their infrastructures, and will be anxious to get writers working, with scripts ready for production on January 7.
= My suggestion to the WGA right now is to end the strike, but not to do the new deal. Go back to work, continue negotiations, and as I have been saying for far too long, get closer to SAG and the threat of a true shutdown of the industry. DGA may, indeed, take a deal that doesn’t support WGA’s goals. But grow some balls and stop complaining that what DGA does has to define what the other unions do. It’s like claiming the union deals for truckers and for hotel workers are tied at the hip. Different needs, different unions, fight the affirmative fight.
Unfortunately, the most likely scenario today is that the studios will give a little on the back end, come up with a deal for internet delivery that is exactly like DVD for downloads, a 15% increase in the DVD residual rate, a deal based on at some five-years-from-now amount of revenue for on-line viewing, a 10% increase in minimums, a deal to cover reality programming at significantly lower minimums than network television, no animation, another delay on the deal to raise CW/MyNetwork to network status, and 50% of the requested increases in Pension and Health. WGA will take that deal and go back to work, followed by a DGA deal, putting real pressure on SAG to settle for too little yet again.
Don’t do it. Stop the strike. Reload. Consider striking again in April. Keep in mind that the instability inside the studios based on not knowing if a strike is coming is actually more damaging and better for writers than a strike itself.
Posted by poland at November 6, 2007 12:40 PM
Comments
So, how did the 1988 strike become the "home video" strike. I just got done reading a bunch of coverage of the '88 negotiations and strike from the LA Times, Hollywood Reporter, NY Times and others and home video is never really even touched on.
Mentioned a lot in 1985, though.
Posted by: RDP
at November 6, 2007 12:58 PM
It wasn't about DVD residuals or even VHS (since DVDs weren't around in '88). It was about foreign residuals of television shows.
And, David, do you not understand the concept of "Lock Out" or do you just think it won't happen? And, if so, why not?
Posted by: hendhogan
at November 6, 2007 01:03 PM
Like I said, I just got done reading the old articles so I know what it was about, but for some reason I've seen a bunch of people referring to 1988 as the "home video" strike.
Just wondering if there was a reason for that other than a simple mistake.
Posted by: RDP
at November 6, 2007 01:07 PM
Good, Dec 1 is my birthday.
But isn't it a bit premature to say "yawn"?
And why are you so anxious to demean this strike?
Posted by: christian
at November 6, 2007 03:06 PM
I'm not anxious to do anything but to consider and report on what is happening, Christian. My personal interest in the strike is utterly irrelevant. But having lived through a few of these, I can offer my sense of what the vibe is... and the vibe right now is already softening... that is my sense of it.
The removal of the DVD demand from the table and the yawn it produced on the other side of the table will go down in history as one of the ugliest moments in union negotiations.
As for "lock out," being locked out changes the whole tenor of the situation. Ultimately the side that forces the work stoppage is at a political disadvantage. "We'll strike before they lock out" isn't much of a strategy.
Posted by: David Poland
at November 6, 2007 03:52 PM
Strike when there is a chance of doing harm to the other side OR wait til March to get locked out and guarantee no damage done for at least 3 months.
Your suggestion, David, is basically follow the pattern of the '88 strike. We both know that didn't work out too well. I would argue that that strategy isn't compelling either.
And the removal of DVD got no reaction the same way the residuals after profit removal got no reaction. AMPTP was never going to budge on that item, so to them it was equally as ridiculous.
That they consider downloads and DVDs the same thing is telling. IMO, I think they are expecting one medium to replace the other. They want the stream of income they have come to rely on, rather unhealthilly, instead of finding a new business plan that compensates for the loss.
Posted by: hendhogan
at November 6, 2007 04:18 PM
I would go with a few weeks into the New Year and just past the holidays, thus playing the Grinch with end of the year bonuses, parties and maybe some canceled vacations. When the writers kids start bitching about getting socks and underwear instead of Guitar Hero 3, the complaining will get so bad, it will force the writers to settle and go back to listening to the bitching of studio execs, which will be better than what is going on at home.
Posted by: 4nkate
at November 6, 2007 07:44 PM
Yes! Let's strike in... April!? The writers would be an army of skeletons by the time a successful strike ended under that plan.
The trigger has been pulled. There is no going back.
10% = $20,000? The median WGA income is $87,000 not $200,000, which is a number I've grown tired of hearing these past few days.
Posted by: Tofu
at November 6, 2007 09:05 PM
I wish I made $87,000 a year.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at November 6, 2007 09:08 PM
Considering that only half of the WGA is employed at any given time, I bet many of them wish the same.
Posted by: Tofu
at November 6, 2007 09:12 PM
Sounds like you are tired of a lot of things, Tofu.
The key to a 2008 strike is SAG. And the "no going back attitude" is what makes for strikes that don't work. Too much testosterone, not enough strategy.
Posted by: David Poland
at November 6, 2007 10:38 PM
DP,
The strike is a big deal every place I go. And I think Tuesday is a little early to declare it a failure. I know you say you're sympathetic to the writers, but every blog or column comes off as very hostile (though I am definitely biased).
The writers have waited for the other guilds before and suffered because of it. If they waited until June, they would (as usual) be the last to settle and would be screwed anyway. I don't know if the strike will work, but going your route has been proven not to.
Posted by: sloanish
at November 6, 2007 11:08 PM
"I know you say you're sympathetic to the writers, but every blog or column comes off as very hostile"
I have to say I've felt this vibe as well from all of Poland's pieces about the strike. He constantly says he supports the writers but also keeps finding reasons they're wrong about almost everything. I thought he was merely walking the line(the site IS kept alive from advertising by studios, after all).
Incidentally I'm not a member of any union or guild.
Posted by: PastePotPete
at November 6, 2007 11:34 PM
"I know you say you're sympathetic to the writers, but every blog or column comes off as very hostile"
To this point, there are plenty of writers - PLENTY - I have spoken to who have nothing but vitriol over how both sides have played through the negotiation. While yes, I think David is giving an even hand to the strike, criticizing the way some things have gone and been handled doesn't brand him "unsympathetic to writers."
Posted by: SJRubinstein
at November 7, 2007 12:00 AM
Incidentally, I'm a member of the WGAw.
And perhaps "doesn't" in the above post should read "shouldn't."
Posted by: SJRubinstein
at November 7, 2007 12:02 AM
Stopping now would be ridiculous unless they actually got what they wanted.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at November 7, 2007 12:21 AM
David, "No Going Back" isn't an attitude, it's the truth of situation. Are you actually going to sit there and write that if the WGA screams out "DO OVER!" that they'll have even a fraction of the same support six months from now?
They've already bled some respect from their Sunday bungling. Your scenario would be their killing blow.
Posted by: Tofu
at November 7, 2007 08:26 AM
David, throughout the run-up to the strike you have insisted that it was ill-timed (as if we could just choose a time like making a dinner reservation). Day Two and what do you observe? "A significant sense that the strike was premature." It is very difficult for anyone to be truly objective, I admit, but perhaps one in your position should work harder in the attempt.
Posted by: WinslowLeachtheComposer
at November 7, 2007 10:47 AM
Trying listening to outlets like KCRW and find the person who will argue that striking now was a good idea. I'm not hearing from them.
Posted by: David Poland
at November 7, 2007 11:50 AM
You know, Winslow, it's not a sporting match to me. I know it is to others, but if the Guild folds here, I will be much more dissapointed than many of the people who are raising the flag high today.
Posted by: David Poland
at November 7, 2007 11:52 AM
Because KCRW is the place to go for Opinion?
NPR is a shill for corporations, hardly the lefty bastion people claim. They did zero stories on Kucnich and his HR333 resolution to impeach Cheney, but at least five stories on Rosie coming to MSNBC.
You decide.
Posted by: christian
at November 7, 2007 04:18 PM
Yeah, but Kucinich has seen a UFO. Not as many UFOs as Reagan, but still I don't think there's much point in reporting on pointless resolutions that aren't going anywhere.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at November 7, 2007 07:33 PM
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