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December 31, 2007

BYO New Year

Happy New Year to all of you.

2007 was full of adventure, mostly for better in my personal camp. I hope it was for all of you too.

May the writer's strike soon end... may movies be surprising in the best ways... and may we all indulge our passions and our empathy for the passions of others in the year to come.

Posted by poland at 07:09 PM | Comments (42)

No Hi-Def Discs, Thanks

I adore having my Blu-ray and HD players. I have a 1080 set and the image is beautiful, more so than any other delivery, including high-def satellite.

But this NYT story on the ongoing failure of the formats is pretty much on target, with one exception... upscaling DVD players, which has become one of the top threats to the new formats. No one wants to replace their collection of DVDs. And while some discs don't upscale so well - I really don't know what makes the difference, but it is noticeable - once you see how most of your discs can, the need to own a Blu-ray or HD player is diminished.

Another interesting point is that Blu-ray owners are buying more discs than HD buyers. I have had the good fortune of two of the Blu-ray driven companies putting me on their publicity lists. And I haven't really bothered the others about it. But I bought the HD player and have been buying discs in both formats, trying to figure this all out for myself. And it seems, as a consumer, that there are a lot more titles that are exclusively Blu-ray than exclusively HD. This is changing with Paramount content. But there was a 3-for-2 HD deal at a retailer recently and I had a hard time picking three films in the format that I really wanted. (I went ahead and bought Boorman's Excalibur by itself on Amazon for almost the same price after accounting for no sales tax and free shipping.)

Also, there is the problem that if you are into Blu-ray or HD, you need to have players on all your HD TVs if you are buying only those formats. (Nor can you bring it to a friend's home, even if they have an HDTV but no player.) I am still a one-HDTV household, so watching a DVD in the bedroom or guestroom in hi-def is not an option at all. I'll buy a second screen eventually... and when I do, the additional costs of a HD DVR, an additional hard drive to make it capable of holding hundreds of hours of hi-def programming and not just 30, the added program fees to DirecTV, and at least one hi-def player will probably cost more than the 42" LCD or plasma TV... and that is assuming that I won't want to bother with surround sound.

I love the formats and especially some of the stuff that artists have done, pushing the technoology. But it is harder and harder to foresee a future that will not be driven by hi-def coming into homes by cable, satellite and, for a bit, internet. As most of you might have noticed, WalMart quietly got out of the download business this last week.

The key to the entertainment is not quality... it is, as it always was, delivery.

Posted by poland at 12:10 AM | Comments (15)

December 30, 2007

The Writers Strike Back

Posted by poland at 11:54 AM | Comments (22)

Sunday Estimates by Klady - Dec 30

Posted by poland at 10:52 AM | Comments (42)

December 29, 2007

Friday Estimates by Klady - 12/29

Posted by poland at 10:55 AM | Comments (47)

December 28, 2007

Holiday & Award Film Spoiler Thread

A couple of funky little things occured to me in recent days... neither is spoiler material, but it made me think that we should have a place to discuss all these films.

First, I finally saw Hellboy 2 trailer on DVD instead of Quicktime and the difference is of note, considering how visually dark the footage is. Much better on a bigger screen. Also, Del Toro offers an homage to John Landis in the trailer footage. Have you noticed?

Second, watching Sweeney Todd, which finally arrived on DVD (it's been landing all over town and beyond since last Friday), I was reminded that one of Depp's last beats in the film the film - which I will not mention in any detail here - but which you can in comments, where SPOILERS will be the order of the day - shares an idea with a Daniel Day Lewis moment in Gangs of New York... more so in the earlier cut. And now, they are duking it out for awards.

If you haven't caught it - THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS SECTION IS FOR SPOILERS!!!

Since it's not just one movie, please NAME THE FILM at the top of your comment, skip a line, and then start commenting. I know it's a hassle, but others will appreciate it.

So...

"HAIRSPRAY

When Edna Turnblad has sex with Velma Van Tussle..."

And so on...

Posted by poland at 07:44 PM | Comments (34)

Top Ten List at 155 - Pre-Publication Preview

(This entry was corrected at 2:40p on Saturday... more explanation below.)

The Top 20, and particularly the Top 10, is getting pretty well cemented in.

Sweeney Todd and Michael Clayton keep going back and forth in the 9 and 10 spots. Juno keeps moving up. The Lives of Others could be knocked out of the 20 by The Savages, which is just a half-point behind. (Lives had 74 points last year. If added, the total would put the film in the current Top 15.)

No Country For Old Men no longer has a twice-the-next-highest-point-and-list-total status… but a 44% lead of #2 ain’t shabby. In fact, it looks like all three of the top films will remain in position and order, too far ahead to be overcome and too far separate to push one another with about 50 more lists to come… though anything is always possible.

ADDED - 2:40p Saturday - After a complaint in the first comment on this entry, I pulled the entry and started looking for corrections. I found a few more than the commenter suggested. The chart was pulled here and on the front of MCN and is now back up here, corrected, as it soon will be on MCN's homepage. Also, in the process of creating some checks and balances for the future, we've added another step to assure accuracy. Feel free to check our math in this pop-up view of the excel workbook", which also makes for an interesting perspective on how voting works. Sorry for any confusion or aggravation that might have been caused.)

Posted by poland at 07:15 PM | Comments (5)

The WGA On The Letterman Deal

To Our Fellow Members,

We are writing to let you know that have reached a contract with David Letterman's Worldwide Pants production company that puts his show and The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson back on the air with Guild writers. This agreement is a positive step forward in our effort to reach an industry-wide contract. While we know that these deals put only a small number of writers back to work, three strategic imperatives have led us to conclude that this deal, and similar potential deals, are beneficial to our overall negotiating efforts.

First, the AMPTP has not yet been a productive avenue for an agreement. As a result, we are seeking deals with individual signatories. The Worldwide Pants deal is the first. We hope it will encourage other companies, especially large employers, to seek and reach agreements with us. Companies who have a WGA deal and Guild writers will have a clear advantage. Companies that do not will increasingly find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. Indeed, such a disadvantage could cost competing networks tens of millions in refunds to advertisers.

Second, this is a full and binding agreement. Worldwide Pants is agreeing to the full MBA, including the new media proposals we have been unable to make progress on at the big bargaining table. This demonstrates the integrity and affordability of our proposals. There are no shortcuts in this deal. Worldwide Pants has accepted the very same proposals that the Guild was prepared to present to the media conglomerates when they walked out of negotiations on December 7.

Finally, while our preference is an industry-wide deal, we will take partial steps if those will lead to the complete deal. We regret that all of us cannot yet return to work. We especially regret that other late night writers cannot return to work along with the Worldwide Pants employees. But the conclusion of your leadership is that getting some writers back to work under the Guild’s proposed terms speeds up the return to work of all writers.

Side-by-side with this agreement, and any others that we reach, are our ongoing strike strategies. In the case of late-night shows, our strike pressure will be intense and essential in directing political and SAG-member guests to Letterman and Ferguson rather than to struck talk shows. At this time, picket lines at venues such as NBC (both Burbank and Rockefeller Center), The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, and the Golden Globes are essential. Outreach to advertisers and investors will intensify in the days ahead and writers will continue to develop new media content itself to advance our position.

We must continue to push on all fronts to remind the conglomerates each and every day that we are committed to a fair deal for writers and the industry.

Best,
Patric M. Verrone
President, WGAW

Michael Winship
President, WGAE

Posted by poland at 06:49 PM | Comments (5)

BYOB Weekend

Posted by poland at 02:27 PM | Comments (22)

Writers On A Plane

Bill Carter breaks the news... WGA will give a waiver to Worldwide Pants - and whether they like it or not - Viacom/CBS to employ WGA writers.

If this was a response to the growing crowd of people arguing that the strike will go well into the summer or the float of same on Nikki Finke's gossip blog, it may go down as one of the worst moves ever by a union.

We are now beginning to see a theme from union leadership of picking favorites in every fight. Yes to Time-Warner’s SAG Awards and Comcast’s Indy Spirits, no to NBC’s The Golden Globes and Viacom’s The People’s Choice Awards. Yes to CBS Latenight, no to NBC and ABC. And of course, Nikki Finke has become the near-official media mouthpiece for the Guild, linked to every bit of media hype the Guild hopes to propagate.

But the one-two punch of Letterman and The Globes could be devastating internally. For one thing, the problem with The Globes is not that they won’t allow writers – that is a different and more easily, unfortunately, addressed issue – but the threat of pickets, which will keep talent from turning up. The worst possible thing for the Guild would be that somehow a show is done and is as good or better than usual… and The Globes has always been successful for being he “loose” awards show, not the best writer. What message does that send?

Letterman is an even bigger problem, with some writers working and others not… with the blessing of the union. When did the WGA get into the business of making these calls for their members?

And the greatest pressure is yet to come, as the networks start to convert to more and more reality programming, the threat of union decertification of the union as WGA oversight on less than 30% of programming could come to pass is no joke. Personally, I don’t think that the industry wants WGA to be broken. But the working writers of the WGA – the ones not allowed to return to their $200,000+ a year salaries (and I am not saying that is the average, just what Letterman's top guys make) because some of the leadership is willing to rationalize that Letterman’s deal is “different” than letting writers work for networks directly – may not care at that point. And don’t forget that the film writers, for the most part, are being dragged through this entire thing by the TV counterparts who have much more at stake here.

Anyway… all of this, I know, sounds very anti-WGA. And I am not anti-WGA. I am pro-WGA. I believe – and always have – that they always let the producers off too easy. But these events are not rhetorical to me. I have been arguing, endlessly, over this holiday that there is a deal to make in the next six weeks – in spite of DGA… in spite of SAG… in spite of the rancor – but moves like this Letterman thing, in combination with shutting down a popular, if idiotic, Globes show, seem like the acts of angry teens who are flailing around trying to draw attention.

And really, 60% support for WGA in a national poll! Is that GOOD? There is no real argument on the other side, except that streaming video is not as well funded as the WGA suggests right now. But that is an argument of degree, not yea or nay.

We’re just about to come back from the holiday and all of us who have been screaming about force majeur periods, followed by the holiday break - assuring no deal anytime before Jan 3 - are finished with that argument. Why the strike started when it did and whether it was a smart choice is no longer relevant. Now, it is about a solution.

Unless all of this noise leads to a late reprieve for the Golden Globes, which would actually suggest that someone at WGA is strategizing and not just reacting… a tacit statement that WGA is trying to make positive steps… it is all about splitting people, not bringing them together, both inside and outside of the union.

Yes, shutting down The Golden Globes is a show of power. But what is the purpose? How does it serve the goal… which for all the anger, is to get a deal done and for the writers to get back to work?

Nearly every writer I spoke to about the Letterman situation seemed relieved that it seemed to have passed without happening. I’d be very curious to see if the WGA could have a vote over that waiver and get more than 20% approval internally.

I guess this all now goes under, “We’ll see.” If there is a quick deal, these things will play as successful strategy. If there is not a quick deal, there will be a lot of anger over those working, pressure to grant more waivers will come, networks deals will be reformulated in some cases to try to get a “Letterman deal,” and we are in for a long, unhappy spring. And if there is no deal… if the union falls apart… this group will not have “lost the internet,” they will have lost the union. Horrible.

If there is anything I see in this business, over and over, it is people who obsessively serve a certain constituency. Sometimes they pick the right one. Sometimes they don’t. But nothing is uglier than when a specific group’s opinion is served relentlessly, doggedly, slavishly… and it’s the wrong one. That’s when people lose careers. I hope this doesn’t turn into one of those situations. It rally doesn’t have to. But then again, I never thought George Bush would actually go into Iraq until a few days before he actually pulled the trigger. Sometimes I really hate being wrong.

Posted by poland at 01:30 PM | Comments (35)

Box Office Hell - Pre-New Years

Posted by poland at 01:25 PM | Comments (14)

December 26, 2007

Holiday BYOB

Wed 12 noon - This thread has, apparently, turned into a discussion of what movie-related stuff people got for the holiday... some electronics... some DVDs... some with High School Musical stuck in the sleeve...

Posted by poland at 01:10 AM | Comments (86)

The Night After Christmas

'Twas the night after Christmas', when all through the town,
Not a writer was writing, not even scabs ‘round;
The force majeurs hung all the weak deals with care,
In hopes that reduced costs soon would be there;
The industry nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of smug execs danced in their heads;
And Will Smith in his cash cow, and Nic’s Treasure deuce,
Had just settled in to shake kids’ dollars loose,

When out on the world there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from boredom to see what was the matter.
Away to the web page I flew like a flash,
Tore open the bookmark and went through the trash.

The light on the crest of the new-unspun news
Gave pause when considering which side one might choose,
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature Benz, and eight tiny men feared,

With a little old driver, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment it must be Strike Nick.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:

"Now, Rupert! now, Sumner! now, Pascal and Lynton!
On, Chernin! on Mayer! on, Iger and Meyer!
To the top of the game! From the top you could fall!
Now shred away! Shred away! Shred away all!"

As dry rot that before new-age delivery flies,
When they balance sheet looks like shit, a victim they spy,
So with DVD flailing, raising the fear,
Will the unions bend over, kiss Strike Nicholas’ rear?

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the street
The nickel and diming of each balance sheet.
As the gross points were paid, and marketing unreal,
Down the street Nicholas came with nary a deal.

He was undressed completely, the emperor nude,
And the writers spent Christmas, thinking, “presents” or “food?”
A bundle of promises flung on his back,
and sounded like George Bush just before The Iraq.

His eyes -- how they twinkled! His dimples how merry!
His threats were like Kruschev’s, truth levels did vary!
The struck writers were drawn as quick as a breath,
And soon their rational thinking had left;

The stump of their hist’ry clenched tight in their teeth,
And the smoke it encircled their head like a wreath;
They had broad minds but had often been reamed,
But hoped, this one time, not to bleed when shows streamed.

They screamed power and pride, threatening the Golden Globes,
And I laughed when I saw this, in spite of the dough;
A cry for attention and a twist of his knife,
Would the loss of that evening change anyone’s life?

The sides spoke no words, with many more out of work,
Did they pick the wrong strike date? Doesn’t make bosses less jerks.
The studio web offer would offend any nose,
But as weeks passed, Guild hope up the chimney rose;

It’s time to rule slay, to the teams give a whistle,
Before egos turn small arms fire into missiles.
It is time to exclaim, as the year fades from sight,
"Happy Christmas to all, and to all, back to work."

Posted by poland at 01:02 AM | Comments (1)

December 24, 2007

Strike!

Posted by poland at 02:00 PM | Comments (8)

Odd Promo For TWBB National Sneak

Looks viral... comes from our friends at Par Vantage... interesting...

Posted by poland at 01:05 PM | Comments (7)

December 23, 2007

Oscar Competitor Perspective

It's a funny thing... we all want to believe that awards season has a basic legitimacy of "you vote for what you like," but it just isn't that way. It's like finding someone you're attracted to... it doesn't always make so much sense on paper, but it is what it is.

The two $100 million movies in the race, American Gangster and Hairspray, are well liked by many, but as the critics' top tens are showing - placing them, so far, at 28 and 39 - respect is a different achievement. Instinctively, it sometimes seems to me like both are still right in the middle of the race, but objectively, nope.

There is nothing wrong with Sweeney Todd's opening weekend or Atonement's limited release. But suddenly, Atonement is being passed by Juno (albeit on more screens) and one wonders whether they have been a little too precious with their high-toned movie. Sweeney is well off the Dreamgirls opening pace and with two holiday weekends, $40 million is about the top the film can hope for by the start of the new year. Will that be read as a solid start or a dangerous middle road, with any hopes for a $100 million gross completely dependent on Oscar?

The big advantage that Atonement still holds is that it is getting the critical support (#7 on the current Top Ten chart). Sweeney isn't doing bad there either (#13).

But we are still swimming in the same big pool. There Will Be Blood continues to have an odd advantage by not being seen. The Diving Bell & The Butterfly, Into The Wild, and Juno remain in the "right" position to grab somewhat unexpected BP slots, as No Country For Old Men and Michael Clayton go into Christmas as the two most locked-in films... with Atonement and Sweeney Todd a little bit weaker than before.

The thing about Now is that there is almost nothing that really can be done about any of it. The movies are in charge now. Perception of things like box office wil be noticed, but primarily as a confirmation of viability.

There are two objctive standards that seem to hold at this time of the year. The first is that the film needs to be over $15 million gross if it was released before December and needs to appear on its way to success if released slowly in December. The second is that all five films are likely to be in the Top Ten chart's top 21. We have seen films from outside that group move in as more lists are compiled. But we have never gone outside of the Top 21 for a nominee since we've been doing the charts. And the range has become smaller in the last couple of years. American Gangster and 3:10 To Yuma both have the potential to still crack the Top 20. We'll see.

In the meanwhile, Gurus o' Gold's Top 5 are in the Top Tens' top 13... a few in that group are likely to be fiscally blocked - Diving Bell is a problem that way - and things will change as the next 100+ charts come in... and as the grosses roll in over the next week.

In other words, the season remains the same...

Posted by poland at 04:56 PM | Comments (13)

Sunday Estimates by Klady - Dec 23

Posted by poland at 10:34 AM | Comments (16)

December 22, 2007

Surprise

I picked up the kinda surprisingly not-high def DVD of Death Proof last night. I have been very curious about what the extended version would play like.

As with the movie - and not everyone agreed - I was fine with more chatter between "the girls." The more there was, the more naturalistic, the more it feels like what Tarantino was after. There is a greater level of boredom with themselves here. The downside is that the menace of Stuntman Mike is not quite as great.

Someone write, back at Cannes, that the previously "scene missing"ed lapdance was "worth the wait." It was not. In fact, even in the uncut version, it is truncated by Tarantino, obviously aware that it wasn't doing much for anyone. The woman is sexy… but the dance is impotent. Once again, Tarantino shows that he has a great eye for the ladies, but trouble with anything intimate.

The sex in the kitchen scene between DeNiro and Bridget Fonda in Jackie Brown also showed this. It was incredibly brilliant on paper, but didn't translate because it was disconnected from the tactile reality of sex.

As a result, even with the lapdance, Tarantino misses the dramatic weight of an idea he clearly intends to get across... that Stuntman Mike gets aroused, gets rejected, and then kills what he can't have. This is his form of rape. And when the women fight back in the second half of the film, it is a fight against objectification and abuse... though ironically, many feel that Tarantino lingers in there somewhere.

That line that Tarantino walks is an odd one. On one hand, you have female empowerment. On the other hand, you have a camera that objectifies women fiercely, almost always shows great beauties - even when they are "dressed down," like Rosanna Arquette as an addict in Pulp Fiction - and while acknowledging that women can and do talk about sex in raw ways, tends to write them as manipulative, selfish, and withholding. In the case of Death Proof, the girls swing from indiscriminate to teasing to unkind to predatory... but their smiles seem to say it's okay.

Perhaps that is why the most natural extension of the humor of the second half - Mary Elizabeth Winstead and her cheerleader outfit getting into a sexual situation with the deep-voiced, car-owning creepy hick played by Jonathan Loughran... and liking it... which is set up by previous conversations about her sex life - is never explored. Of course, it could have gone the other way, horribly, with a rape situation. There could have been a stand-off. But as is, there is nothing but the set-up and no pay off.

And the final beat of the film - as in the film - SPOILER WANRING - is Rosario Dawson murdering Stuntman Mike with a boot heel crushing in the front of his face. Hee hee! Girl Power!

In any case...

I didn't start this entry to write about this film again, but to point out that it had never occurred to me that this film on DVD would have a major problem... the whole idea of the film being a mess and marked up and being the grindhouse experience makes absolutely no sense on DVD. Intellectually, I can understand and even be enthusiastic about it. Obviously, on some level I was... I bought the DVD last night and watched it immediately instead of watching the shelf-full of films that are very much of the moment.

What worked in the theater plays like a cartoon, emotionally, in DVD. It is a visceral, unavoidable problem, at least for me.

Of course, Tarantino abandons the grindhouse gimmick entirely for the second half of his film. So that all works pretty much as it did in the theater.

Who knew that the rough-hewn experience of grindhouses, so lovingly recreated in the theatrical release of this film, would just be irritating on DVD? It's almost like they needed to rethink it all and create the similar experience for the format... like having to fast forward at a slow rate like VHS with no DVD stops to jump to or marking it all with "Courtesy Of Bob Weinstein" or other such distractions that spoke to the home viewing formats. Just a thought...

Posted by poland at 02:50 PM | Comments (12)

Friday Estimates by Klady

Ya wins some… ya loses some…

National Treasure 2: Book Of Treasures ticked up an estimated 50% from the first film’s release. There is a sense that the quality of this sequel and the release date that doesn’t take advantage of both Thanksgiving and Christmas will keep that first day increase from being consistent with the life of the original film. The first one was shockingly leggy.

Still, as opening days in December go, only the Rings films, Narnia, and I Am Legend started better. We'll see. This is the idea that helped put Oren Aviv in the captain's chair at Disney's movie camp, so...

Let’s flip to the most painful opening day this weekend, for Walk Hard.

It just goes to show that all the Aptow magic in the world and all the marketing genius of Sony in recent years cannot overcome, 1) biopic, 2) a fake celebrity in a biopic, 3) a parody of a biopic, 4) a very well liked and accomplished actor who has never been asked to open a movie before, especially a movie with an unclear focus, unlike 40 Year Old Virgin, 5) a brutally ambitious release date for a film without a built-in constituency, and 6) a running series of “Cox” jokes that were barely funny the first time, much less the 3000th time… unless third graders are suddenly in the market for mock biopics.

This number puts the movie in the company of films like The Ringer and Black Christmas… not pretty. And you have to know, Sony has been working its collective ass off to make this movie happen. John Reilly too, who actually toured the country and did concerts to build the Cox brand.

I feel terrible for them today. You can be sure that they spent more money on selling the film this Thursday alone than the studio will see back in rentals this weekend.

The really sad part is that Mr. Apatow should be deeply appreciative of all the effort that was made to try to launch a concept that just couldn’t find box office wings… and while he will surely be that this week, what historically happens in these situations is that the talent smiles and thanks everyone and takes the condolences well, and then carries resentment and disappointment and a pointed lack of trust with him/her from then on. I hope Apatow is a bigger, smarter guy than that. He has had his disappointments before and he will have them again… and I have never seen a studio quite so much behind a movie that they had to know via tracking was just not going to happen the way they wanted it to.

Sometimes it just doesn’t work.

The passion for P.S. I Love You was not quite as dramatic. But it has a much clearer niche and Warner Bros should send a “thank you” basket to Focus for keeping Atonement on just 300 screens. I keep dancing with Focus on some of their release choices and Atonement is one where they are playing it conservative, in search of the big Oscar payoff. The studio released Pride & Prejudice in November 2005 and had $31 million in the bank by now… but no Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Even in this crowded field, Atonement could be in the mid-teens going wide this weekend. But this film is going 100% Brokeback. Maybe that will work for them… maybe not. I think that it just isn’t the same thing as either Brokeback or Pride and they should be showing an ability to be a hit now… but it’s their movie and they are still quite likely to get their BP nom… but not the $83 million gross of Brokeback under any circumstance.

Charlie Wilson’s War is also behind even the most conservative (real) projections. The thing about the magic of Tom and Julia is that “the magic” happens when they are on one of their smash hit runs and then they make a small film that they bring an audience to unexpectedly. The problem for this film, for Universal, is trying to sell the fun of the film while walking the tightrope of the drama in the film. It is also what breaks the film, which is entertaining enough to be worth the time but comes up short with the nearly impossible task of finding a unified tone that really works. Hanks has been out of the marketplace for 18 months and his last film was a smash, The Da Vinci Code, but not really loved. And it’s been a full three years since Ms. Roberts was with us in a full-fledged role. Tough to sell.

Sweeney Todd was right about where it wanted and needed to be… given the release pattern. But I have to say, while I do believe the film will be Oscar nominated, it is certainly possible for it to miss in a season of a lot of favorites. And DreamWorks/Paramount is taking a big chance by starting on just 1249 screens. Dreamgirls widened to 852 screens last December 25 and their first Friday did $1 million more than Sweeney. Of course, this is not an exact comparison in many ways. But the marketing strategy has been wide-release all the way, hiding the music and selling the teen boys the gore and black comedy. And this release pattern is Oscar-chasing. They are selling A Tim Burton Film and Tim Burton has never had a big success going this way. And even Mr. Depp has never been sold this way… unless they’re after a $60 million total gross. These, too, are smart people… but I don’t get this choice. At all.

Posted by poland at 11:23 AM | Comments (20)

December 21, 2007

Wrath

I'm not sure that I have made this point clearly...

The WGA will not shut down the Oscars.

There is a world of difference between fucking with a 100 “foreigners” with the collective journalistic weight of a sitcom sidekick’s blog and taking on 6000 of the town’s most powerful people.

Gil Cates is already perceived as an anti-WGA guy. But an organization that refused to delay their TV show by a week or two as America went to war five years ago is not going to let a bunch of writers (including the 400 that are in the AMPAS branch) get in their way. If the AMPAS does sit down with WGA, seeking a waiver, you can be sure that the subtext will be thicker and darker than any scene in There Will Be Blood. (Note: Don’t hold the sit down in a bowling alley.)

But besides the brutality that Academy leaders will bring to the table, consider this bigger issue… the AMPAS is more than 65% funded by this annual TV show. The money goes to fund film festivals, to educate, to preserve Hollywood’s legacy, to celebrate the art form, to other charitable efforts, and of course, to give out the Nicholls screenwriting fellowship

The TV show generates about a $30 million net towards The Academy’s annual revenues. Annual Academy administration costs and the upkeep of the library alone cost more than the total of the rest of the revenue coming into the organization. In other words, kill the show and AMPAS has to start firing people and/or cutting back on their most basic services.

The Academy is planning on breaking ground on a $200 million movie museum at Fountain and Vine in 2009… which could be threatened by a major shortfall this year.

And while The Oscars are no longer the cash creator for films that it once was – except for the Best Picture winner, almost exclusively in DVD sales – it is a reach out by the industry to the world, promoting the health of an industry that the WGA seeks to earn its keep from and more.

There will be discomfort if the WGA action shuts down The Golden Globes. But if the union tries to shut down Oscar, they will be messing with something more than money. WGA would really will be tapping into the mass ego of the industry. And however much some writers have convinced themselves that AMPTP is dealing from some angry, emotional place… however much there are mixed feelings in some non-union quarters about whether WGA is handling the strike well… however ambivalent some members are about the strike right now… however some might delude themselves into believing that the earnest support of some actors means that most staying away from The Globes would be about unity and not fear of being branded a scab… the WGA has not been subject to wrath before.

Maybe they don’t fear wrath.

But as the David Letterman talks falling through – as they absolutely had to – show, they probably do. These are not dumb people.

Posted by poland at 07:17 PM | Comments (4)

20 Weeks... Year Ender

Well, we're down to where we were a month ago!

Back on November 15, I wrote: "It's also an unusual year because so many of these films are so good. Everyone has personal favorites and films they just don't like, but if you run down the list of the dozen or so films still in play, it seems like you are going to find almost everyone giving a "thumbs up" (quarter to Roger) to at least two-thirds of the titles. That is remarkable, really."

Has that changed?

The rest...

The Charts...

Posted by poland at 05:22 PM | Comments (3)

Bring Your Own Blog, Christmas Pre-Game

Ho, Ho, How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm when they have their own space to argue amongst themselves?

Posted by poland at 12:57 PM | Comments (25)

Not Sure How Well Reported This AMPAS Response Was

Message regarding the Academy and the WGA
(posted 12/18/07, 11 a.m. PT):

To the members of the Academy:

Some reports in the press have stated that the Academy had been denied a waiver by the WGA that would have allowed Guild writers to work on the telecast of the 80th Annual Academy Awards. In fact, the Academy has not requested such a waiver, nor has the Guild told the Academy whether such a request would or wouldn't be viewed favorably.

As it does each year, the Academy recently requested from the WGA a waiver in connection with any film clips and excerpts from past Oscar telecasts that might be shown on the upcoming Academy Awards telecast. The Academy was informed last night that the Guild would not grant that waiver, stating that to do so would not advance the Guild's goals in its current efforts to achieve a collective bargaining agreement. This decision affects only the conditions under which we may use such material, not our ability to do so.

The Academy remains committed to presenting its Awards on February 24, and will continue to work with all parties to achieve that goal.

Posted by poland at 01:29 AM | Comments (1)

December 20, 2007

Late Night At The Movies

At The Grove, here in L.A., four of this weekend's new films are launching just after midnight tonight: National Treasure 2, Sweeney Todd, Walk Hard, and Charlie Wilson's War.

The only film at over 50% capacity was Sweeney Todd... and it was at about 80% capacity in a 300+ seat theater. Not bad, but not overwhelming. And how was it for the rest? Ow.

Posted by poland at 11:56 PM | Comments (5)

Oops, They Did It Again

WGA West Statement on Film Independent Spirit Awards

LOS ANGELES -- The Writers Guild of America, West (WGAW) has issued the following statement regarding the Independent Spirit Awards:
“Film Independent came to us before the strike, and the WGAW Board decided to grant an interim agreement allowing for writing services for the Spirit Awards. The best way to get the awards season back on track is for the AMPTP to return to the bargaining table to negotiate a fair deal with the Writers Guild to get this town back to work.”

More writers working while others picket...

Posted by poland at 10:27 PM | Comments (0)

Box Office Hell - 5 Major Releases

Updated on Friday, 12:55p

Posted by poland at 08:55 PM | Comments (10)

Do You Take This Standee...

This stunt by Fox for 27 Dresses, putitng human standees in 27 theaters across the country when sneaking the film on the 27th of December, is sure to have one clear effect... to get guys excited for the promotion for the sequel, 27 Negligees.

Posted by poland at 06:40 PM | Comments (6)

Lighter...

A rather brilliant move, I think, by Miramax today, sending out hardback copies of No Country For Old Men. It's not a movie-themed cover. It's not the cheaper quality paperback that would have cost them at least a few bucks less per unit to send out. It is a move that says, this is a serious book... a film of literary weight... and not just some movie with a lot of killing.

It is also a tacit call for us to read. Dear God! Read!!!

Then there was the odd delivery of the day. Shipped by Techincolor, Warners delivered the 2-disc "Special Edition" of Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix. There were Warning letters from both WB and WIP about the responsibility of getting screeners... but what we got was the same DVD that is every story in America... even the grocery stores!

Even wilder, this disc has a digital copy included. It's actually quite smart, though the download doesn't work on Apple or, naturally, on iPods. I think this is a part of the future of DVD sales... including a digital version of the film, but specifically for your iPod or iPhone or whatever portable device you own.

But the screener warning letter tickled me as I got, very pleasantly, a shipment that could just as easily come from Amazon.com.

Also landing today... The Golden Compass. Still pending... There WIll Be Blood, Sweeney Todd, and I Am Legend

Posted by poland at 04:43 PM | Comments (14)

An Impossible Story To Report

Oy... gossip...

Truth telling in Hollywood is not an easy thing. There are truths that chafe, but that people who are fair-minded get used to hearing. There are truths that open small wounds that fester and never quite heal. And then, there are truths that have real danger attached to them.

I, like many others in this town, carry around a lot of secrets. Some of them are not true... but people have convinced themselves. Some of them are true. In our small town, the upheaval that can be caused by one secret, especially when true, can change many, many lives in a hurry.

When someone I like and respect and trust tells me not to tell the truth, I take it very seriously... because I know they have my interest in mind – as well as their’s sometimes – and they usually know just how ugly it could get.

So today, I will not speak truth.

There is an element of self-preservation... not a small one.

It's a large burden placed on the shoulders of a journalist and already, there are well-established organizations much bigger than MCN tip-toeing around the truth – even if that truth turns out to be a rumor that cannot be proved or disproved, only sourced - as many of us have been for six months now. But not only are careers at stake... not only is the future of certain businesses at stake... but it seems a life could be at stake as well, under the circumstances.

And that’s kind of a crazy amount of power for what comes down to being a piece of personal gossip.

As things are batted around on this blog, I am often asked to defend my editorial choices. What I am offering you here is some insight into how difficult what should be a minor decision can be. This is when the line between gossip and news gets blurry and troubling. This is when you civilians out there think that tabloid gossips and self-proclaimed truth-tellers will belly up to the bar and engage you with Hollywood’s darkest secrets. (They will not, because their truth-telling is almost always self-serving manipulation.) This is when editors make decisions that will alter the future of their careers.

And sadly, I can tell you now that the story – the “truth” - will break in some media outlet exactly .3 seconds after one of my brother jackals feels – and it is amazing how natural that sense comes to some of us – that the threat of telling is less than the upside of “breaking” the news. In other words, when the hunter is weakened and becomes the pray.

In the meanwhile, we will watch things spin. And pine for the times when We thought it was all so straight forward.

Posted by poland at 03:47 PM | Comments (40)

The Great Guillermo Takes Us Back To Hell, Boy

Posted by poland at 02:22 PM | Comments (9)

My Countdown Clock

Posted by poland at 01:35 PM | Comments (6)

SAGinations

What to make of the SAG nominations?

Airplanes? Origami? Another Yuletide log on the fire?

Kidding… but only kinda. It’s not that I don’t respect the SAG Nominating Committee, which is actually more committed to seeing movies and loving actors than any of the other groups, I think. Their screenings are consistently more energetic and full for a wider array of films than any other.

But as I keep saying… saying… saying… we are all fishing out of the same pond and these nominations are much the same.

Of course, Lionsgate wants you to know that getting a Best Ensemble nod is just like Crash, which was written off for dead and then came back after that nomination and eventual win. They will be sending 100,000 discs shortly.

New Line wants you to know that Hairspray got Ensemble and Sweeney Todd didn’t… though they are probably not so excited about John Travolta being ignored just as Johnny Depp was… and unlike Johnny, John did the Nom Com screening rounds.

Ironically, it was SAG’s Depp surge that did actually push the idea that he was Oscar nominate-able for Pirates just a few years ago. And indeed, Lionsgate did get another wind when everyone was reminded how much support in the very large actors’ branch the film had… and yes, they will be shipping 3:10 To Yuma to the 100,000 SAG members now.

SAG is one of the awarding groups that does overlap with actual Academy members, unlike critics groups or pseudo-journalists. But SAG Nom Com, which leads the nomination process, can be less reflective than the final votes, which are more like an Oscar poll, with such a wide spread of votes. Still, these nominations bear closer watching than most.

But there is also this worth noting… in a year with a number of foreign language films made by American companies, there was only one nomination for any film or performance in a foreign language… Marion Cotillard, who is considered by many to be the front-runner to win the Oscar. In fact, the only nominations for any performances shot outside of North America are Cotillard, Jolie, and Blanchett. This reminds us… this is a union voting. And all politics are local.

And it is not irrelevant than Mr. Depp “snubbed” Nom Com this year… or that the film was filled with British talent and shot in England.

It is not irrelevant than while the Atonement team did show up for Nom Com, they didn’t show up until late, which is always a problem, as people in groups like this tend to make up their minds before Thanksgiving and then have to really have their heads turned in order to move off of what they think. This makes things very dangerous for late-comers, since with built up expectation often comes overthinking when They finally see the film. And for SAG Nom Com, that means waiting until talent lands to talk after the film. (This is not to overlook a general mistake in Focus’ strategy on this film, which was to hold it like they did Brokeback, after screening at September fests. Brokeback got a lot of blowback and lost The Oscar, but was locked in for noms because its core was rabid and of some size… Atonement not so much.) Of course, SAG also passed on Keira for Zhang Ziyi a couple years back and Oscar flipped that.

And we should remember that Bobby got both HFPA and SAG noms last year. (And not for nothing, The Great Debaters, another latecomer, Got nothing from SAG this year while getting HFPA love. And no Denzel for Gangster either.)

It is easy to argue circles around these nominations. Ellen Page got a nomination, but Juno did not get ensemble… and in this group, more than AMPAS, television stars like JK Simmons and Alison Janney and Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner mean a lot as beloved members of the community. Cate Blanchett went “both ways” with a lead and a supporting nod… pushing past a half dozen names expected to be Oscar-nom’ed at this point in Lead. No Denzel in Lead or Russell in Support, but Gangster gets Ruby Dee and Ensemble? Michael Clayton gets noms in 3 of 4 acting categories, but not Ensemble?

Really, the only things you can glean for sure from this list of nominations are, 1. Familiarity, and 2. No Country For Old Men is set for the next round.

And for everyone else… the fight rages on…

Posted by poland at 11:52 AM | Comments (17)

December 19, 2007

Dueling Clocks

United Hollywood

AMPTP

And while I am here... a response to the AMPTP "Dollars & Sense" silliness...

Dollars & Sense
• The writer gets paid a residual from New Media usage when the consumer pays to view a TV program or a feature film for a limited period of time and when a consumer downloads a permanent copy of a TV program or film (electronic sell-through).

But the residual proposal for free streaming currently on the table is irrationally small… and the rate for permanent downloading is at the absurd – in context of other contractual rates – rate of DVD sales.

• As agreed to in past negotiations, the writer gets paid (plus gets pension and health contributions) for projects made specifically for New Media. The amount of the compensation is not a fixed amount, but negotiated by the writer (and/or his/her representative) with the producer.

As is at the foundation of what a union is for, a reasonable minimum must be set and maintained so that well-intended, friendly expansions of writers’ job responsibilities do not become an onerous requirement of employment.

• The falsely maligned home video residual formula is not a discounted formula. On a standard 1 million unit sale of a DVD, a writer garners at least an additional $64,800 beyond initial compensation (on 5 million units at least $324,000; on 10 million units $648,000, etc.).

Falsely maligned, my ass. A studio net, before paying participants, of about $9 million on a “standard 1 million unit sale of a DVD” resulting in $64,800 to the writer is silly. And to push this to permanent downloading, a much cheaper form of distribution is even more so.

• Over the past 10 years, Producers paid in excess of $10 billion in residuals, including at least $1 billion to WGA members.

Big whoop. $100 million a year in a $175 billion business? Wow!

• In 2006, the average MPAA film cost over $100 million to produce, market and distribute in the domestic market, and approximately another $40 million if released overseas.

True. And likely low. But not the responsibility of the writers… especially as they are not paid more if more is spent.

• Six out of 10 movies never recoup their original investment (from all windows).

A lie… or myth of accounting. Your call.

I do not believe the position of some that ALL movies make money and that the studios are massively profitable. But the studios cannot win an argument about accounting creativity. Silly.

• In television, some 85 - 90% of series fail before they can be syndicated. The average deficit (production costs less license fee) for the first season of a one-hour series is $26.4 - $33 million and is $8.8 - $15.4 million for a half-hour series.

And yet, the new technology has turned these formulas on their head in the last couple of years. No longer is syndication the only form of ancillary revenue that matters and shows that do not reach the classic 100 episode plateau can now generate a lot of revenue on DVD and download.

• For the 2006/07 television season, the top-rated broadcast network averaged 4.4% of the total viewing audience, which means on average it captured 12.5 million viewers out of an estimated 285.5 million total viewers.

Okay.

• For the 2006/07 television season, 6 of the TOP 10 series were non-scripted programming.

Yes. And remarkably, these profit centers are not under WGA jurisdiction.

• For the 2007/08 television season, scripted series hit an all-time low of 67% down from 81% just two seasons ago (that represents 64 of 96 series on five networks).

Yeah.

• Per the MPAA, member studios lost $6.1 billion to worldwide piracy in 2005, around $2.4 billion to bootlegging, $1.4 billion to illegal copying and $2.3 billion to Internet piracy. This also means a loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in residual payments. And, the figure jumps to an estimated $20 billion when factoring in the cascading effect of losses to other industries directly tied into the entertainment industry, such as film equipment manufacturers, ad agencies and caterers.

Yes… and during the bootlegging era – the vast percentage of which is revenue that the MPAA never possessed to “lose” in the first place – the overall revenues have more than tripled thanks to DVD.

• According to a 2006 MPAA nationwide study: the motion picture and television production industry is responsible for 1.3 million U.S. jobs, generates $30.24 billion in annual wages, funnels $10 billion in taxes each year to federal and state governments and contributes more than $30 billion annually into the local Los Angeles-area economy.

You go, girl!

• According to WGAw, 4,434 of its working film and television members earned a combined $905.8 million in 2006. The average member earned $204,295 and over half earned at least $104,750. The WGA noted that these numbers are based on earnings reported for dues purposes and thus do not fully reflect above-scale payments. According to studies, workers in the media business earned on average just under $70,000 per year and the average Angeleno earned just over $46,000.

Yes, writing is a very well-paid job. It is also treacherous to enter and unlike most jobs, severe in cutting ties with working writers when they are deemed to be “past their prime.”

• Revenues obtained in the initial market of release no longer cover the costs of production, much less distribution and marketing. There is no such thing as supplemental or ancillary or secondary market any longer and hasn’t been for years. All windows and media are needed for the vast majority of productions just to recoup initial costs, much less break even or make a profit.

Yes. By the design of the studios and particularly, the agents.

But if AMPAS is sincere in this being an issue, they should be begging WGA to overhaul the entire system, making minimums much, much higher and varying in the different budget ranges.

For instance, it is true that very few screenwriters of movies that cost over $100 million to produce are not making seven figures and that the residuals are not the most significant part of their paydays. But if the AMPTP is serious about finding a way to make this all viable, let's put in that $1 million minimum for budgets over $100 million, $900,000 for $90m, $800,000 for $80 million and down to $100,000 for $10 million, with whatever the minimum is now for whatever is under that. And let's make the residuals on that system transparent, so writers are paid, say, 5% on any gross revenue totals over 5 times cost, which gives plenty of room for paying the costs off.

Too much, they say? Ah, so they want it both ways.

And that is okay too. It's business.

Residuals for writers, a truly minor expense line in the big picture, cannot be held captive to expenditures that writers have no control over. That is unfair on the face of it. And let's not even go down the road of a studio dealing squarely with their movies when it is now a standard procedure to make a significant portion of the profit on a film through charging distribution expenses that are not directly related to a film's cost or how it was financed.

Likewise, writers cannot insist that the studios are just out to get them and that every movie is a cash cow.

Yes, the film business is not in the best shape ever right now. Costs are way too high for a stratifying business... and some will be hurt when those costs de-escalate. But trying to make this The Writers’ issue is penny wise and pound foolish.

Posted by poland at 02:28 PM | Comments (11)

BYOB - 'Twas The Week Before Christmas

Posted by poland at 12:23 PM | Comments (14)

New Line Vs The Pope

It's quite remarkable how New Line can't stay out of Jesus trouble. Last year, it was a teen pregnancy for their Mary in The Nativity Story, which went on to do less over its run than The Passion of The Christ did in its first two days. Now, after endlessly inflammatory bad press over the Godlessness of The Golden Compass, The Vatican felt compelled to actively go after the film.

Ouch.

Maybe they can do a Vampire Christ movie for next Christmas and push Christians to burn down the studio’s offices once and for all.

In the meanwhile, Fox is not shy about capitalizing on the Midnight Mass-acre! Show up and get a t-shirt...

Posted by poland at 12:07 PM | Comments (17)

December 18, 2007

THB - Strike Hard

I pray that I am wrong about the future of this strike, because my fear that the WGA is now moving towards creating enough internal dissension that the union will be forced to settle unfavorably around March, if not earlier. That would be tragic. And even more so because it will make it very hard for SAG to hold firm… which is clearly why Alan Rosenberg is so aggressively being in-house counsel to the WGA.

I am okay with the idea of StrikeTV.com… but the big problem is that if it is a financial failure – and a lot of people with the money to make it even modestly successful have a stake in its failure – it becomes another yoke around the WGA’s negotiating neck.

And that, again, is the trouble with all this showboating is that it is – as any cocaine addicted celebrity can explain – very, very hard to keep going. And when the noise lowers, the perception is that a lull is occurring, whether it is or is not. It doesn’t requite an AMPTP conspiracy.

Most importantly, the only significant threat WGA has over AMPTP remains the one it had from the start… not working. As disinterested as the AMPTP appears, as others have pointed out, a lot of the force majeur issues are six weeks, not four … which means that there was NEVER any chance of this strike ending – after starting Nov 1 – before the end of the holidays.

So this is my new guess. The deal that will end up being signed, unless the WGA strike ends up being in tandem with a SAG summer strike, will be on the table from the AMPTP by January 18. And they will not move off of that offer without a combined strike.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 04:51 PM | Comments (7)

Happy

Posted by poland at 12:45 PM | Comments (8)

Hairy Feet

No... it's not a George Miller prequel about dancing cro-magnons.

The Hobbit walked back into The Shire Of Moviedom this morning, as OneRing.net (Jackson’s media wench) got the news out first online (at 8:30a pst) as the studio scrambled to try to get the news on the morning shows on the east coast, missing by a few minutes.

So what’s the deal? Or The Deal?

MGM desperately needed cover as the clock starts running out on their Showtime deal and most of their output deals with independent producers in step with that. New Line had a little problem finding the direction from which they could sell The Golden Compass, a movie that has been weighed down to excess with media grief. And Wingnut (Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh)? They just want what they feel they have coming to them… and for their accountants to be able to confirm the same… which they apparently now have, as the lawsuit over the trilogy has been yanked.

Shaye has been working towards reviving his working relationship with Wingnut since the summer. And while most of the media/gossip speculation will hang this deal squarely on the box office result of The Golden Compass and Shaye’s upcoming negotiations with Time-Warner, the reality is that while the trigger (aka The Dollar Amount) may have been pulled this week, the deal to settle has obviously been in the works for a while.

The other pressure point is the end of rights in 2010. There is little chance the film can start shooting before this time next year. With two films to make, a year of production takes them right up to the rights line. So it was time for everyone to excrete or to get off the pot.

And there is still a loud noise to be expected from the Saul Zaentz camp. Zaentz was not mentioned in the studio press release.

So now the bigger questions. Will Jackson decide to direct? If he doesn’t, Sam Raimi would be an interesting choice, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to someone like Frank Darabont, who is just at about the right place in his career for The Hobbit to be a boost and to have the skills to deliver a quality level that Jackson & Walsh will be pleased with.

But personally, I think Peter will end up doing it, for love and money. (Expect Weta to see tens of millions in new equipment on New Line’s tab, in addition to fees, profits, etc.) It would be too ugly to announce the movie and Peter “he’ll never direct in this studio again” Jackson directing all at once. And it is possible that he has already decided not to do it. We’ll know by summer, no doubt. The nice thing about him being Exec Producer is that production can ramp up in New Zealand with Peter and Fran and Philippa Boyens without anyone being able to assume anything until an announcement is made.

And one sober note. As huge as The Rings films were, they didn’t move Time-Warner stock one point. I never believed that New Line was going to be Shaye/Lynne-less before the guys decided to go out on their own schedule. For all the angst over some tough years, the company has been quite profitable under their 40 year long regime. The current state of Fox Atomic, Lionsgate’s reliance on horror porn, and the miss of savior Grindhouse at Weinstein/Dimension is enough to make Time-Warner appreciate what New Line does have set up and working.

But this deal changes only one thing. It means two profitable years (likely 2010 and 2011) for the company, under any circumstances. Everything else is perception. Does it make Shaye and Lynne any smarter? Well, beyond checking the ego at the door and making a must-make deal when they had to, no. (But they were already pretty damned smart, even with Hoot on their resumes.) Does it make New Line a better buy for an outside company? Maybe… but not for any logical reason. Anyone buying the company from Time-Warner would have to pay the premium in anticipation of the films.

After a day of sighing by the media, the hype will rise to the heavens for the couple of years before the first movie lands in theaters. And once again, Hollywood will enjoy wallowing in the power of perception.

PS - New Line already has two Hobbit sites set up, where, in fact, the news was broken....
www.TheHobbitBlog.com and http://community.thehobbitsite.com.

Posted by poland at 10:50 AM | Comments (32)

Why Does This Feel Like I Am Posting A Hollywood Tuna Entry?

There is something lovely and odd about that moment when the media has a crush on an actress like the media is now crushing on Amy Adams. The most lovely part is that Amy still seems to be keeping her head about her.

The images are from Focus' Miss Pettigrew Lives For A Day, due next March.

Posted by poland at 10:30 AM | Comments (13)

December 17, 2007

Did...

... Anthony Lane write this review before seeing the film?

It's not that a pan of Sweeney Todd is impossible or even improbable for some. It's that with the exception of a notice of Edward Sanders as Toby, this "review" mostly seems like a pre-screening musing on Burton's carer limitations as Mr. Lane sees them, is really not much about the film.

Odd.

Posted by poland at 04:54 PM | Comments (5)

Summer With The Warner Bros

May

June

July

Posted by poland at 04:38 PM | Comments (22)

BYOB - Pre-Christmas Week

Ho ho... anyone left in town?

Posted by poland at 10:09 AM | Comments (28)

December 16, 2007

Charting The Top Tens

We are in the early stages of compiling our fifth annual list of critics' Top 10 lists - only 33 lists in - and I thought I would point out an interesting awards element that seems to becoming narrower over the years.

Our first list, 2003, ended up with Oscar's Best Picture nominees in slots 1-3, 8, and 19 (Seabiscuit). In 2004, it was 1, 3, 4, 13 (Finding Neverland), and 16 (Ray).

But in 2005 and 2006, all of the BP nominees came from the Top 8 films.

Does this mean that campaigning is giving way to quality? Does it mean that critics are more susceptible to having their heads turned by the awards season?

And does it mean that the Top 8 will contain all 5 nominees this year?

I just noticed that we posted the first chart with the hierarchy based on # of votes and not points... so here is the Top 18 by points...

Posted by poland at 03:18 PM | Comments (7)

Sunday Estimates by Klady - 12/16

Only Harry Potter and Christ have had bigger openings than Will Smith outside of the summer months. Does that make Will bigger than The Beatles?

Potter I, II & IV, The Passion of The Christ… the only bigger non-summer 3-day weekend openings in movie history. Not bad.

It’s bigger than any of the 3 Lord of the Rings openings. And in fact, even with summer movies being added to the comparison, the movies, aside from The Passion, that are ahead of #20 – the 20th best opening ever – are all franchise pictures - Spidey, Pirates, Shrek, Star Wars, X-Men, Potter – plus The Passion and DaVinci Code.

And shockingly, Alvin & The Chipmunks is/are right up behind the Meet The Fockers number in second place.

Another winning stat – At an estimated $121.9 million, this weekend is the fourth best 1-2 opening punch in movie history. The top two weekends were driven by single films that grossed more than $122 million (Spidey 3, Pirates 2), then there is the Harry Potter/Walk The Line duet in 2005 for $125 million combined. Then, this.

The #5 combo is more like this one, in May 2006, The Da Vinci Code and Over The Edge opened as an adult/kid combo to just under $116 million.

Posted by poland at 10:05 AM | Comments (61)

December 15, 2007

The Beginning Of The End?

I have been sitting on an entry that I wrote on Tuesday… I will print it here now…

I reluctantly read Variety's story, Awards Show Brace For Strike," on the principle of "been there, done that."

But the note, which might have escaped my notice before, about WGA giving the SAG Awards a waiver for writing and pickets really hit me like a ton of bricks.

Put down your pens!!!

It's so basic... either you are going to let all the awards shows pass... or not! Giving your pals a pass is so profoundly wrongheaded I can't believe that so many smart people are doing something so dumb!

Let me understand... it's ok for WGA members to write the very best show they can and garner a ton of attention so Time-Warner can make the maximum amount of money for this TNT program? Can't wait to watch the show streamed on the internet for free!!!

Maybe the WGA shouild give a waiver to The Daily Show and Late Night with David Letterman. The guys fronting those shows have been mensches. I'm sure they'll do a strike segment bashing the AMPTP each night in exchange.

Do you think there is a little ambivalence out there now about the strike? How about when WGA causes a hassle at BFCA, then HFPA, then gives SAG a free ride? Do you think the actors involved are going to feel happy about being challenged to cross a picket line to receive an award from a show that isn't employing writers against the strike rules?

And let me put my money where my mouth is.

If WGA is picketing the Critics' Choice Awards with the intent of forcing people to cross a picket line to attend an award show – as opposed to just putting on a show for the cameras - I will not cross.

I won’t be happy. It’s shitty for business. It’s not terribly helpful to the BFCA, of which I am a member. And I really want to be part of honoring the many fine films, the people who are in them, and the people who crafted them.

Of course, I think it is about as reasonable for the WGA to picket in front of the Critics’ Choice Awards as it would post a picketer in front of my door to keep me from crossing the line to get the DVDs that were sent to me so I cold vote for the awards.

What kept me from publishing this piece is that I really wanted to consider what I was saying. Was I really prepared to walk away from the Critics' Choice Awards, amongst others, if there was a WGA picket line?

In the days since, I have asked questions and considered my position. And the answer is, "yes." I will not cross a seriously intended picket line - not just a protest scene for the cameras - just to go to an awards show... any awards show.

It lowers the bar a bit that BFCA does not expect to be picketed, being that it is on a non-union network, in a non-union auditorium, with no writers being hired to work on the show.

But my greatest concern, then as now, is the idea that WGA is undercutting its effort by picking and choosing who can give out awards without the talent being challenged. This is not a social action, it is a labor action.

And now, what inspired me to grab the earlier piece and post it today is the rumor – you never know with Nikki – that WGA is seriously considering giving Letterman a waiver to go back to work with his writing crew. The bullshit twist is that the waiver is for Worldwide Pants, not CBS.

WHAT?!?!?!

I was kidding!!!

You cannot start making choices about who is being struck and who is not! That is the beginning of the end of a union. When “no” means “sometimes,” you’re ability to hold the line is finished. “Under the bra but over the panties” may work – for a couple of weeks – in the backseat of a car, but not in a union battle.

But I guess I have forgotten that pivotal moment in Barbara Kopple’s Oscar-winning doc, American Dream, where the union decides that Hormel can makes round sausage patties, but not square ones or bacon or hot dogs, because the foreman of the round sausage patty section was on their side.

Oy!

This comes hot on the heels of the rather desperate – and I don’t care if the AMPTP has used the word in its effort to spin the situation – idea of separately negotiating with each studio/network/producer.

Let me get this right… the union that has been screaming that the AMPTP is union-busting (absurd on its face… WGA and the other talent unions are critical to stability in this industry now… AMPTP just wants to molest the writers, not bust their yoke) is trying to guild-bust? And because they know that there are some more militant studio execs and more reasonable studio execs, they really think that The Money in this town is going to crack? Does the WGA realize that there are FOUR major television networks and they control the flow of product with massive marketing and that none of those four is Warners, where the most militant exec is said to be? The integration of these four companies with four studios may be a monopoly in this industry – one that serves the writers rather well, all things considered, since no matter how shitty the deal, it is the writers’ interest for profit to be the #1 motive of producers and distributors – makes such a rift all but impossible.

And then there is this…

2007 in Hollywood is over.

Done.

There will be no substantive negotiations before January 2 unless the union shuts down the airports in all the high end resort towns on the planet.

Maybe all these maneuvers are being made to keep the membership from revolting… the next two weeks may be the most divisive non-bloody period in the middle of a strike in the history of movie industry unions. So the best the union can really do is to try litigation, try dividing the studios, try threatening award season… anything to prove that they are taking action and not just sitting, waiting for The Bosses to “graciously” allow them to start talking again.

In any case… most of these moves seem dangerously vague and almost built to create dissention in the ranks.

My position hasn’t changed. I wish they had held back in striking until March or so, hopefully making steps towards not striking in the meanwhile, building the SAG alliance further, and making the case for public opinion much as they have in the last 6 weeks… but before being on strike.

That said, once in the strike, I am a hard liner. It’s not about feelings or respect… it’s about money. And if the union feels forced to go out, the upside has to be at least as big as the pain of a strike… more than they were asking for 6 weeks ago. Or what’s the point?

Please… make these bad ideas stop!

Posted by poland at 04:55 PM | Comments (10)

Friday Estimates by Klady

Well.

No precedent for this one.

The only other $30 million-plus opening day in December was Lord of The Rings: Return of The King, third of a massively successful trilogy… and on a Wednesday. It turned into a record $124 million 5-day and $72.6 3-day.

The biggest non-Rings opening day in December was Narnia… $23 million, leading to a $65.6 million 3-day.

Can I Am Legend hit $75 million this weekend? $80 million? More?

It is a gaudy show of power by Will Smith. And it is a show of remarkable smarts by Warner Bros, keeping the film, which is much smaller than the ads and trailer would indicate, close to the vest.

It was also a remarkable start for Alvin & The Chipmunks, generating almost as much on Friday as was estimated by most for the entire weekend. And Saturday should be up, not down, as the film plays so young.

Once again this weekend proves that tracking is as often as not crap at estimating openings, especially for family films. I Am Legend did 60% of the high weekend estimates on Friday and Alvin did more on Friday the most tracking-tethered weekend estimates and did about 63% of the high estimates in that one day.

And… the rest of the field was crushed by the newcomers eating everything in sight. These two should smash the previous 1-2 punch record of $84 million that Rings/King and Mona Lisa Smile did in tandem in 2003.

Posted by poland at 10:47 AM | Comments (18)

Box Office Hell

Posted by poland at 12:11 AM | Comments (11)

December 14, 2007

Lunch With... James McAvoy

James McAvoy sat down to talk about Atonement the day before his Golden Globe nomination. We discuss his work on stage and scree, the joy of working blue screen, the stylistic choices in the film, and the power and danger of both the "C" and the "N' words.

The interview

Posted by poland at 09:34 PM | Comments (3)

BYOB - 12/14

It's your world... I'm just he guy with the hors devours...

Posted by poland at 03:35 PM | Comments (28)

Selling Cloverfield

Posted by poland at 01:50 PM | Comments (31)

A Commenter Graduates

It's always nice to celebrate happy occasions. This week, Joe Leydon...

The last time I received a diploma, Richard Nixon was in the White House. More than 33 years later, I am, as of today, a Master of Arts, thanks to my incredibly patient mentors at the University of Houston's School of Communication. Let there be dancing in the streets, drinking in the saloons and necking in the park. Feel free to have a glass or two of Beaujolais Nouveau in my name, if not on my bill, and share wine kisses with the one(s) you love.

Of course, all of you lesser mortals now will have to address me as "Master Leydon." (Well, OK, at least for the next day or two.) And just to please me, the college's latest celebrity alumnus, the mighty UH Cougars will smite the lowly TCU Hornfrogs in the Dec. 28 Texas Bowl. Go Coogs!

Posted by poland at 11:50 AM | Comments (30)

December 13, 2007

LWD - Viggo

Viggo Mortensen, who just got Golden Globe nominated for Eastern Promises, sits down to talk about his work with David Cronenberg and the work of getting into his character as a Russian mob thug with style and pathos.

The interview...

Posted by poland at 05:22 PM | Comments (3)

Lunch With David - Julie Taymor

Julie Taymor, one of the cinema world's great visual directors, on her latest work, Across The Universe, which was nominated for Best Musical/Comedy today by the Golden Globes.

The interview...

Posted by poland at 05:18 PM | Comments (1)

Lunch With David #50

I couldn't be happier to have this duo as our 50th LWD episode. Two brilliant actors, each with very different styles in their work and lives. Michael Clayton's award nominated duo of Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson hadn't met before this interview, having had no scenes together in the film. They talk acting philosophy, the film, Tony Gilroy, George Clooney, and whether exposing yourself on screen is really all that daring.

The interview...

Posted by poland at 04:56 PM | Comments (2)

Lunch With David #49 - Nancy Oliver

The screenwriter of Lars & The Real Girl talkas about creating this challenging, sweet, remarkable screenplay.

The interview...

Posted by poland at 04:54 PM | Comments (0)

20 Weeks - Damaged Frontal Globe

I’m here to talk about The Ghoulish Globes…

This season, it really is like picking sides for a kickball match at summer camp. There are a finite number of kids on the field and everyone has to pick their team. Some feelings will be hurt. Some will be elated. But the range of distinction is quite narrow.

”I’ll take Keira!”

”I’ll take the Coens!”

”Give me Clooney, as long as he isn’t riding his cycle to the game!”

Are there any surprises?

Yeah… that Harvey put a gun to Nadia Bronson’s head... who put a French tickler to 30 of the most susceptible HFPA members... who voted for movie so straight-forward that Harvey wouldn’t have anything to do with a film like that five years ago... while all the time he has a masterpiece like I’m Not There in the stable that really needed the help since it doesn’t have Oprah selling it.

Yeah… that Tony Angelotti wasn’t able to get Russell Crowe the Supporting Actor nomination that he didn’t deserve and wouldn’t support.

Yeah… that the Globes didn’t go for Knocked Up as their thirteenth nominee.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 02:13 PM | Comments (6)

The Quick Version

The Globes, as usual, found a way to discount their significance.

Not only did they choose 7 dramas to reward with nominations, they didn’t give a Best Drama nod to The Diving Bell & The Butterfly after rewarding it in the far more competitive – 5 nods instead of 12 – categories of writing and directing. (See: Munich)

ADD - But wait!!! As noted below... and completely forgotten by me at 5:30a... Diving Bell and Kite weren't eligible for Best Picture. Which makes that better... and the choice of 7 even more stupid.

Also oddly missing from the top slot were Into The Wild and The Kite Runner, while Tony Angelotti and Nadia Bronson once again showed that they can feed foreigners like no one else! (Karen Fried had a great morning too, as she got all she could ask for from Atonement and Eastern Promises to boot.)

On a personal level, the group made some choices that made me smile and made the Lunch With David batting average even better – watch for the James McAvoy chat later today or tomorrow. But nice as that is, in spite of some whiners, I don’t think that any of this has anything to do with feeding my ego or pleasure centers.

Nominees list

PS 6:50a - Nearly 90 minutes after the announcements, the HFPA website still has not loaded a complete list of nominees... so that the song nominees are nowhere to be found on the web.

AND PSS - USA Today gets up the songs and full list first... ahead of trades, HFPA, or any websites.

EDITED: 6:27a

Posted by poland at 06:06 AM | Comments (37)

December 12, 2007

There Will Be Fighting

I guess I will throw my twenty cents into the tempest in this week’s teapot… the self-consciousness with which critics groups give out awards.

I’ve had a private dialogue all week with the great Bob Koehler, whom I keep reminding that he is Pope pure as critics go. He really is the kind of guy who says things like, “They gave the award to Amy Ryan for the wrong picture… she’s much better in Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead.” God bless him for that. It makes talking to him about movies both absolutely thrilling and inevitably frustrating every time.

Scott Foundas is also a serious guy… but not quite in the Pope class. At a relatively young age, Scott has managed to move into position as one of the leaders of the Serious Next Gen of film critics. I feel he has earned everything he has, and I suspect, that he will get in the future.

But Scott’s defense of how LAFCA behaves is both completely fair… and quite instructive in explaining why there is not an assumption of purity when it comes to critics giving awards.

Trying to predict the LAFCA and NYFCC awards is idiotic on its face. These groups do meet in a room and discuss/fight over the winners. They have different voting procedures, but year after year, people go in thinking one thing and something altogether other comes out. And really, great! I honor Jack Mathews resigning from NYFCC because he is offended by the voting system. But whatever these groups want to do, so be it. It is theirs to give, however they decide to make their decisions.

But… the groups are made up of human beings. And human beings have human natures. And critics have critics’ natures.

The conversation I had last week in private a half dozen times about the two major early-voting critics groups was, “It’s No Country and Blood… both could go for Blood… no chance both will go for No Country… if one does, the other will go the other way, with the outside chance that NY will go for a local oddity like Lumet’s Devil or Schnabel’s Diving Bell.”

It’s not that complicated a game. I am not claiming some superhuman insight… and you will note, I did not publish any prediction in anticipation. As much as I am tagged as a prognosticator, I have always said, it is not a carny game. I am not guessing. I am attempting to report where things are at a given moment, through the season. And it changes. Every week, I see some of our Gurus and others swaying with the wind of the moment… and most of those winds are real. Attention can be bought with ads. Importance can be taken on for a moment when a group hands you and award. But in the end – and I think this is the genius of the now-shortened Oscar season – the 6000 who vote in the big show can be told to watch a movie, but they will decide whether they love the movie… or not.

And to some degree, the same is true with critics’ groups. Critics think “award” by embracing the palette narrowed by a long season the same as everyone else, whether they want to acknowledge it or not. And that critics’ group palette has been down to No Country, Blood, Zodiac, Diving Bell, Devil, Into The Wild, and I’m Not There for a while now. So is it hard to figure that the big groups will end up going for the one that seems sure to be Best-Picture-nominated and the one that some people still think can be BP nominated because it is SO GOOD even though even its biggest fans seem to acknowledge, goes off the rails so hard in the end that it has only the smallest chance (which is still more than some). The only outside shot that really threatened was Zodiac… and the feel of a wasted vote, which also is a major issue in Academy voting, overwhelmed early passion.

But back to Foundas…

First, I am not saying that the unmitigated passion – however misguided, in terms of lack of mitigation – for There Will Be Blood is false. I believe that Scott really thinks that Blood, “send(s) shock waves through the very landscape of cinema, that instantly stake(s) a claim on a place in the canon. Often, such vanguard works fail to be fully understood or appreciated at the moment they first appear, as some of the initial reviews that greeted Psycho, 2001 and Bonnie and Clyde attest. There Will Be Blood belongs in their company, and I consider myself fortunate to belong to a group with the foresight to recognize it in its own moment.”

It is that peculiar form of ego that makes There Will Be Blood a critic’s wet dream. There is some brilliant filmmaking in the movie, moving the language forward, as it is completely derivative, but completely fresh in how it brings modern tools to those images and ideas. But the “underdog that we can put in the canon” schtick is raw meat to underfed jackals.

But it’s not just that. It is also clear, clean love.

I guess it might be like really loving your wife and really being hot for her at the same time. Sometimes you want to share important and intimate things. Sometimes, you look at her and just want to objectify her brain out… even if you love that synapse-heavy brain. These are not mutually exclusive feelings.

The same kind of issue can be attached to the awards for 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days, which is a great film, acclaimed for month after month. There is no denying that it is deserving. But there is a certain joy for a critic to “going off the reservation” and embracing films that no one else will love quite the right way.

It’s not one or the other.

The seduction, for people who care about awards season, to start getting so myopic that the forest is not only unseen, but burned to the ground so they can get a better look at the trees, is also human nature. I can tell you, with 99% certainty, 7 of the HFPA’s 10 Best Picture picks tomorrow… and the other 3 are like 30% certainty.

But WHO CARES?

I don’t. I will report on the nominations. And I will try to put them in the perspective they deserve. It will be a lovely honor if Knocked Up gets a Best Comedy nomination… and it will have no chance of winning or being Oscar nominated for Best Picture. The beginning and the end. There Will Be Blood has a chance of being a Globes nominee… but it will likely get pushed out by The Great Debaters. Talk about shockways for Scott! So is one film better for having been nominated? And does the fact that neither could win HFPA make them inferior to the eventual Drama winner?

There is nothing wrong with enjoying a good wank or a passionate debate about serious films that your group wants to honor. Vanilla, chocolate, and Antiguan Passionfruit Mosquito Flan… the film world is expansive.

Scott says in a comment on his piece, “The awards handed out by the members of LAFCA serve a single and solitary purpose, which is to recognize those achievements that our members deem to be the most significant in cinema in the previous 12 months. We are doing, I think, a good service to those films.”

But “doing a good service to those films” IS another motive. It’s a good motive, I think. But it is an additional motive to the “single and solitary” one. That’s just human nature.

One of my “sins” in covering all this is that I questioned whether NYFCC was doing the right thing by awarding a film that is well into its DVD life for Best Foreign Language for a second straight year. I do understand that they have the right to do as they like. But Foreign Language and Documentary are really the two areas where critics still have the chance to have a major function in changing the box office fates of films… particularly locally. A foreign language film that will be released in NY in the next six months would be truly advantaged by a NYFCC citation. All it will be for the great The Lives of Others is another trip to NY for Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck on Sony Classics’s tab (if they’ll pay for it). I will always find that unfortunate. Sorry.

One thing is true of the entire season – right after the reality many of us have accepted for decades, that Oscar is not a real definition of “best,” but only of “best for that unique 6000 people, who have very strong age and taste boundaries” – is that it is all taste and it is very, very rare that one movie MUST be the movie for any critic or any group. Maybe Scott and others feel that way about TWBB this year. But like a Top 10 or a favorite film list, moods change, it’s hard to compare films that are so different in tone, and there are hundreds of shades of gray in every opinion not involving Michael Bay.

Human nature. Catch it!

Posted by poland at 04:36 PM | Comments (3)

December 11, 2007

Lunch With... Leslie Mann

The much buzzed Leslie Mann of Knocked Up chats about her career, life, and being "the girl" in show business.

The interview

Posted by poland at 11:41 PM | Comments (2)

Lunch With Adam Shankman

Adam Shankman, director of Hairspray, as well as Bringing Down The House and The Pacifier, talks about his career, his road to success, Travolta, and more...

The interview

Posted by poland at 11:09 PM | Comments (5)

Loud Mary

Radar's gossip blog ran this stupid piece in the great tradition of Nikki Finke... clearly one source... clearly with an agenda... clearly will get people talking before they find a more significant distraction, like the weather.

No one is firing Steven Spielberg. The idea that Spielberg is going and Geffen is staying is, simply, not gonna happen... certainly never at anyone's behest but their own.

That said, here is what might have actually been floated - Spielberg, Geffen, and Katzenberg are on 3 year contracts which end next year. What is not 100% clear - opinions differ - is whether they can leave Paramount with Stacey Snider before 2010 and how easily they can leave with the DreamWorks name.

Sumner could absolutely try to position the debacle of the exit of SKG after 3 years and as 90% of the flailing studio's revenue creation - the only way it won't happen is if SKG bought the studio from Viacom outright, though it is more likely that Spielberg would prefer a red carpet housekeeping/co-funding deal at Universal - just as he spun the exit of Tom Cruise as a firing. But this time, he's f-ing with the wrong guys. Cruise was vulnerable when that went down. David Geffen will have Redstone's Viagra replaced with cyanide while he sleeps.

Yes, there could be a fight over the studio name. Yes, Paramount has a longer deal to distribute DreamWorks Animation than for the people who make it, which complicates things. Most complex is pulling out all the top shelf DreamWorks talent that is now employed directly by Paramount. This can, as Tina Turner might say, could go down rough... or easy.

But the idea that Sumner is going to "fire" Steven is the kind of PR spin that will push Viacom B into some trouble. Phillipe Dauman already has a major problem coming in the exit of SKG and they still have no answer to offer the Wall Street community. Brad Grey is likely to go down in history as the Jerry Levin of the movie business, his moves, including bringing in DreamWorks at a massive cost, forcing Viacom to divest itself of its movie studio and at least some cable nets. Trading publicty jabs with Geffen is not going to work for them... as we all thought they already learned from the last publicity debacle.

Really, how will they explain that over 80% of their distribution gross is walking out the door?

There are more charitable ways of parsing the numbers. DreamWorks Animation is really not part of the equation, for either company. It is, technically, an independent company and Paramount only has a distribution deal with them, for which it paid an additional $75 million when the big deal happened. They are in profit on that deal after this year and can expect net revenues of about $40 million a year in future.

On just live action, DreamWorks product grossed $454 million so far this year with Paramount product making $263 million. So DreamWorks live action is only responsible for 63% of their gross domestic revenue.

Still not a great story... especially when only one film from Paramount proper cracked $50 million all year.

The truth is, SKG would be doing Redstone a favor by taking Viacom B off of his hands. If they won’t, the only question is whether Wall Street will be less kind to a company that keeps Brad Grey in charge of a sinking ship or one that dumps him. And if they dump him and lose SKG as well, who takes over? Joe Roth? Bill Mechanic? I don’t see Peter Rice being willing. Who the hell else is there, who could step up not into the production role, but the big boss role?

Without a hero, the stock will plummet and Redstone will push the eject button by 2010... assuming that it is still up to him by that point.

But nice try...

Posted by poland at 10:39 AM | Comments (3)

BFCA Piles On

I don’t ever remember Gurus o’ Gold matching anyone’s 10 Best Picture nominations exactly before… but that is pretty much where the season is. 10 movies… maybe 12… all still alive… with 3 or 4 basically locked in and the other 6 or 8 fighting for one spot… or not.

BFCA gave the most nods to Into The Wild. Yet there was not a single nod to the film from LAFCA, NYFCC or any of the five other groups that have announced.

There are six categories with more than five nominees from the generously flexible group (of which I am a member).

Surprises? Viggo Mortensen, Ryan Gosling, and (in a minor key) Amy Adams and Emile Hirsch. Ah, the power of Lunch With David. (Kidding! Really.)

There are minor missing nods, like either Best Actor slot for Phil Hoffman, more than picture/writer/actress for the popular Juno, no Tommy Lee Jones or Josh Brolin, no Helena Bonham Carter, no Travolta, and no McAvoy, screenplay or Saoirse Ronan for Atonement… but Vanessa Redgrave for her 8 minute cameo is in.

The most competitive category in the bunch is Best Comedy, where Hairspray, Juno, Knocked Up, and Superbad will fight so hard that Dan In Real Life could win.

I got a note from one Guru who wanted to change votes this morning after the announcement, but I am wondering why. 123 of 140 possible BO votes this week went for the BFCA’s Top 10. Only 2 Gurus has Into The Wild in their Top 5 this week… maybe that will change. But somehow, I don’t think that these nominations are indicative of a sea change of any kind… any more than LAFCA or NYFCC… or any Gurus vote, for that matter.

I expect more of the same from HFPA on Thursday. With Diving Bell and Kite Runner stuck in Foreign, that leaves five dramas from the BFCA 10, plus Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead, with the HFPA 5 pretty much guaranteed to be from that group of 6 and, like Crash, the 1 left out not remotely dead for Oscar, albeit not helped. And the 2 Comedy/Musicals that BFCA nodded, Juno and Sweeney Todd, surely in with three more, none of which – no matter what they are – likely to have Oscar impact in Best Picture.

Posted by poland at 07:11 AM | Comments (41)

December 10, 2007

Sweeney Sampling

If you want to have a sampling of the entire Sweeney Todd soundtrack, 30 seconds per song, you can find it on the Amazon.com page, where the pre-order for the Dec 18 release of the album is up and running.

Posted by poland at 09:28 PM | Comments (1)

Funny Until Stupid

You know, it's this kind of thing that makes it all seem futile.

Someone had a great idea. The AMPTP stupidly left the .com URL of their initials available instead of buying it when they built their real website, amptp.org. And someone made a mock site, right out of the great movie, The Yes Men. It appeared on Nikki Finke's site a couple of hours ago. We linked to it. It's funny.

But then, the WGA decides to send it out to its mailing list, which takes it from being funny and mischievous to something sanctioned by a striking union… which is not really funny.

There is nothing illegal about the site. Tactical Edge Group, owned by prop master Bill Davis, who has a lot of credits on network shows, has been squatting on the URL since 2004. I’m not outing the guy… his name is all over the “whois” page for his URL registration.

But there is something vaguely unsportsmanlike about WGA actually referring people to the site directly, not just posting it on UnitedHollywood.com or C. Nikki’s page. It’s like when you are in a fight with a loved one and you feel it slipping away, so you make some nasty reference to an old hurt because a cheap shot makes you feel better for a second. The standard, to me, is, “Would the WGA openly sponsor this site?” And I don’t think they would… unless it was right after one of the negotiating team lit a fart in the general direction of Nick Counter at the table.

And by the way, the power of these guerilla moves by The Yes Men was people not knowing the difference until well after the joke played out.

Posted by poland at 09:12 PM | Comments (15)

Is NBC/DreamIversal Too Small A Deal To Fly?

A fascinating opinion and news story in the WSJ today about tomorrow’s unveiling, by Jeffrey Immelt, of the conglomerate's outlook for 2008. The point of the story is that Vivendi, which still owns 20% of NBC/Universal, doing a deal with Activision to merge with Vivendi’s videogame company, making a company with more upside.

Regarding the Vivendi deal – “The transaction brought many benefits. It gives a market value to a business previously lodged inside the sarcophagus of a conglomerate. Second, Activision's strengths in creating games for consoles like the Nintendo Wii fill gaps Vivendi had in its product pipeline. Third, there will be synergies from crunching the two firms together.”

The suggestion in the piece is that GE look at NBC/Universal with a similar eye. The merger candidate brought up is Yahoo!, calling out the division - “NBC, (whose) 2008 revenue Lehman Brothers estimates will rise more slowly than that of any other division apart from GE's mature industrial arm.”

This all suggests that a deal to partner up with DreamWorks is too simple a deal to make any impact on Wall Street… making the division – which WSJ calls “a middling U.S. media company” – better may not be enough to make it worth the effort for GE.

Posted by poland at 06:22 PM | Comments (2)

Whose Story Is It?

I know many of you are sick to death of strike stories... and I have found the whole thing much more interesting this week... so here is one more...

When stories that say the exact same thing in a combative situation, I start to wonder, who is telling this story and telling it well? It is even more perplexing when smart, experienced writers like Michael Cieply and Merissa Marr seem to be way too close to being on the same page.

That was the déjà vu feeling I had when reading Cieply’s “News Analysis” and then Marr – with Peter Sanders and Sam Schechner – on the WGA strike now being a long-term industry shut-down in the making. Add to that, a ridiculous report from Roger R. Smith, comedically and myopically suggesting that the studios lose billions each year (and the guy apparently had never heard of agents or the manipulation of pricing for a limited resource) , being highlighted on Claude Akner’s The Business on KCRW, and what do you get?

You seem to get Fabiani & Lehane and Mercury Public Affairs delivering big for their client, the AMPTP, in less than a week.

It’s funny, because I have been engaged in a private argument all day today about whether critics groups are swayed by the overall shape of the awards season. While I respect individuals, I can also see that year after year, there is a subtext to how these groups behave, like it or not. The same is true with reporters who I respect.

It’s not like there aren’t plenty of people who think this strike is going to go on through next summer. That story is not new. But the timing of multiple stories, all hitting the same note… well, it turns your head.

And I do think that the AMPTP side is entering the period of their best public relations op