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December 22, 2007
Friday Estimates by Klady

Ya wins some… ya loses some…
National Treasure 2: Book Of Treasures ticked up an estimated 50% from the first film’s release. There is a sense that the quality of this sequel and the release date that doesn’t take advantage of both Thanksgiving and Christmas will keep that first day increase from being consistent with the life of the original film. The first one was shockingly leggy.
Still, as opening days in December go, only the Rings films, Narnia, and I Am Legend started better. We'll see. This is the idea that helped put Oren Aviv in the captain's chair at Disney's movie camp, so...
Let’s flip to the most painful opening day this weekend, for Walk Hard.
It just goes to show that all the Aptow magic in the world and all the marketing genius of Sony in recent years cannot overcome, 1) biopic, 2) a fake celebrity in a biopic, 3) a parody of a biopic, 4) a very well liked and accomplished actor who has never been asked to open a movie before, especially a movie with an unclear focus, unlike 40 Year Old Virgin, 5) a brutally ambitious release date for a film without a built-in constituency, and 6) a running series of “Cox” jokes that were barely funny the first time, much less the 3000th time… unless third graders are suddenly in the market for mock biopics.
This number puts the movie in the company of films like The Ringer and Black Christmas… not pretty. And you have to know, Sony has been working its collective ass off to make this movie happen. John Reilly too, who actually toured the country and did concerts to build the Cox brand.
I feel terrible for them today. You can be sure that they spent more money on selling the film this Thursday alone than the studio will see back in rentals this weekend.
The really sad part is that Mr. Apatow should be deeply appreciative of all the effort that was made to try to launch a concept that just couldn’t find box office wings… and while he will surely be that this week, what historically happens in these situations is that the talent smiles and thanks everyone and takes the condolences well, and then carries resentment and disappointment and a pointed lack of trust with him/her from then on. I hope Apatow is a bigger, smarter guy than that. He has had his disappointments before and he will have them again… and I have never seen a studio quite so much behind a movie that they had to know via tracking was just not going to happen the way they wanted it to.
Sometimes it just doesn’t work.
The passion for P.S. I Love You was not quite as dramatic. But it has a much clearer niche and Warner Bros should send a “thank you” basket to Focus for keeping Atonement on just 300 screens. I keep dancing with Focus on some of their release choices and Atonement is one where they are playing it conservative, in search of the big Oscar payoff. The studio released Pride & Prejudice in November 2005 and had $31 million in the bank by now… but no Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Even in this crowded field, Atonement could be in the mid-teens going wide this weekend. But this film is going 100% Brokeback. Maybe that will work for them… maybe not. I think that it just isn’t the same thing as either Brokeback or Pride and they should be showing an ability to be a hit now… but it’s their movie and they are still quite likely to get their BP nom… but not the $83 million gross of Brokeback under any circumstance.
Charlie Wilson’s War is also behind even the most conservative (real) projections. The thing about the magic of Tom and Julia is that “the magic” happens when they are on one of their smash hit runs and then they make a small film that they bring an audience to unexpectedly. The problem for this film, for Universal, is trying to sell the fun of the film while walking the tightrope of the drama in the film. It is also what breaks the film, which is entertaining enough to be worth the time but comes up short with the nearly impossible task of finding a unified tone that really works. Hanks has been out of the marketplace for 18 months and his last film was a smash, The Da Vinci Code, but not really loved. And it’s been a full three years since Ms. Roberts was with us in a full-fledged role. Tough to sell.
Sweeney Todd was right about where it wanted and needed to be… given the release pattern. But I have to say, while I do believe the film will be Oscar nominated, it is certainly possible for it to miss in a season of a lot of favorites. And DreamWorks/Paramount is taking a big chance by starting on just 1249 screens. Dreamgirls widened to 852 screens last December 25 and their first Friday did $1 million more than Sweeney. Of course, this is not an exact comparison in many ways. But the marketing strategy has been wide-release all the way, hiding the music and selling the teen boys the gore and black comedy. And this release pattern is Oscar-chasing. They are selling A Tim Burton Film and Tim Burton has never had a big success going this way. And even Mr. Depp has never been sold this way… unless they’re after a $60 million total gross. These, too, are smart people… but I don’t get this choice. At all.
Posted by poland at December 22, 2007 11:23 AM
Comments
Wow...what a bomb for the Apatow factory, and a slap in the face for John C. Reilly as a leading man. Seems to be general indifference so most of the week's releases, but it is good news that Sweeney Todd will be around a $10,000 per theatre average...all those worries that it couldn't be marketed properly should have been redirected toward Tom and Julia.
Who would think Sweeney Todd would be so popular around the holidays? Makes me wonder if AVP2 will crush the competition on Christmas.
Posted by: EthanG
at December 22, 2007 12:01 PM
Yeah, that's a pretty dire opening for "Walk Hard" allright.
Not sure what went wrong there: the marketing, the lack of marquee players, the (relatively) esoteric subject matter?
Everything else went pretty much as expected.
"AVP2" will be an eight-day wonder.
Is anyone REALLY chomping at the bits to see this thing? The first one blew chunks, and this looks like the direct-to-video sequel.
"Sweeney" should have no trouble sticking around through Oscar season.
Posted by: movieman
at December 22, 2007 12:24 PM
WALK SOFT - Ouch - Apatow just found a giant turd in his xmas stocking.
A kick in the nuts is the best thing that could have happened to the Apatow factory. They do their best work as underdogs - when lightweight fluff like SUPERBAD gets likened to seminal coming-of-age films, you know they needed a good kneecapping to bring them down a peg or two. Maybe some vulnerability and humility will force them to produce genuine greatness in the future.
Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor
at December 22, 2007 01:37 PM
i liked Walk Hard. Not the funniest film ever made but good for a few laughs. I agree it was probably a hard film to market, but it's still a lot of fun.
Posted by: anghus
at December 22, 2007 02:27 PM
Hey, Walk Hard has made about one third of the total gross for Bob Roberts.
Maybe audiences don't have quite that taste for Cox?
Posted by: doug r
at December 22, 2007 02:32 PM
I saw "Walk Hard" yesterday in the early evening. My heart sank when my girlfriend and I walked into the auditorium, ten minutes before it was to start, and found we were the first ones in. Luckily we didn't end up alone--a good dozen or so strolled in, and all seemed to really, really enjoy it. Nobody left until the ending credits were done (I guess they all wanted to listen to Dewey).
I really, really liked it. I thought it was very funny. My only negative was that I would have loved to have seen all the bits in the trailer incorporated into the film, seeing them played out in the context of story. I'm sure like all Apatow-produced films it'll have a fantastic DVD with all those goodies.
But like it has been stated time and time again the sad, scary thing about the film business is is that nobody is bulletproof. As David wrote this film was a tough sell (which has been also stated elsewhere in the press time and time again). While I found the trailer of the film to be funny, maybe because I read into the film far in advance and therefor I was reacting to it in anticipation rather than trying to be sold on it, all the times I saw the trailer in the theater (starting with "Superbad") it barely got a chuckle out of those in the audience. "Give him a minute, son. Dewey Cox has to think about his entire life before he play." Does anybody other than a few remember that that was the hook of "Walk the Line"? Heck, it took me several viewings of the trailer before I got the joke "Have you met my wife, Cheryl Cox-Tiegs?"
Because this is a spoof that doesn't depend up on sight gag after sight gag (and those scenes that have them aren't appropriate for a green-band trailer) it's just too hard a sell. Plus the genius of the film is that as irreverent as it is it's really sincere, which can only confuse people if expressed in the marketing.
(Why wasn't a red-band trailer made of this film? Or was there one and I just didn't know about it?)
I've honestly been a fan of Apatow since "The Ben Stiller Show" (which I watched when it first aired) and have been thankful that the man has finally been able the achieve the financial and popular success that he deserves. He's had to fight for much of his work to be made. "Superbad" was something that took years to get produced, and thanks to "Talladega Nights" Sony gave him a shot. It's not as if Apatow has produced safe-bet films and that's why he's such a success. He produces what he finds funny, and he wins some opening weekend and he wins some on video. Sure, "Walk Hard" has a long, hard walk ahead but it will...walk hard.
Posted by: Joseph
at December 22, 2007 02:56 PM
Jeffrey Boan: By any chance, are you one of the apparently many folks here who's either in the industry, or wants to be?
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 22, 2007 05:16 PM
Everytime I think of Walk Hard I think of that episode of Just Shoot Me was like an documentary of Nina Van Horn. Not sure why. But then I remember that episode of Just Shoot Me is one of the funniest episodes of any tv show ever. Stranger, considering the show normally wasn't that good.
Wow. That was off topic.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 22, 2007 06:25 PM
Universal should have changed the title of CWW back in August to just Charlie Wilson. At the very least that should have been obvious after Michael Clayton's performance. I think they could have doubled their opening if they'd just done that.
Here's your average movie goer. "what should we see, that movie Charlie Wilson has Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, probably worth a shot."
versus what's actually happening.
"what should we see, not Charlie Wilson's War, that's about Iraq (and choose one of the following options), damn liberal-hollywood and their ignorant agenda pushing/God, I hate BushRoveCheney."
Posted by: movielocke
at December 22, 2007 10:54 PM
Apatow has corned the market on sincerity. Cameron Crowe does not come across as sincere as Apatow lately. Nevertheless; Walk Hard should have been released a couple of months ago. This release date simply did not work for this film.
Of course it's the 21st century, the DVD will be huge, and people will see it that way. Sure the first weekend sucked. Yet I could have sworn that some guy once said that; "The first weekend does not represent the quality of thge film." This seems apt in the case of DEWEY COX!
Posted by: IOIOIOI
at December 22, 2007 11:04 PM
Wasn't it Stanley Kubrick that told Neil Jordon that movies with allusions to war and soldiers in the title inevitibly fail.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 23, 2007 12:31 AM
We need someone to compile Kubrick's advice to his fellow filmmakers. Seriously. I reread Frederic Raphael's book on Eyes Wide Shut last week and as much as Raphael tries to one-up him Kubrick's words just seem like plain unvarnished truth.
Posted by: PastePotPete
at December 23, 2007 01:43 AM
The marketing for Walk Hard was one of the worst I have ever seen. Horrible poster. Horrible. I had a pass to see a screening of this a few weeks ago and even though I love Apatow, love Jack White and like Reilly, the huge pass with that poster turned me off.
Everywhere; on bus shelters and sides of buildings all I have seen for a month was that God awful image of Reilly with his shirt off and a space cadet look on his face as his fleshy, pasty white body took up a third of the frame. Not funny at all. Actually, once you see it enough times it is borderline gross and grating.
And also: the film is a parody of Walk the Line; why in hell are the selling it as a spoof of The Doors? The image of Reilly is inspired by a classic Jim Morrison image that the majority of teens will have no idea about. Because of Walk the Line, they may know Johnny Cash. Bad decisions all around.
As for CWW war...before Sweeney Todd there was a preview for some new Ryan Phillipe film called Redacted from the Rendition of Charlie Elah. You could feel the audience's non-interest in another liberal preach-a-thon. It will bomb and I suspect there are more on the way. Sad to see one of my favourite audience pleasing childhood actors, Tom Hanks going down this sad, facile politics before craft and audience, road.
Posted by: Nicol D
at December 23, 2007 06:40 AM
This might fall under the heading of urban legend, but... I vaguely remember reading somewhere that George Lucas was told Star Wars would be a really, really bad title for a movie.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 23, 2007 09:42 AM
Joe - yes.
Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor
at December 23, 2007 01:01 PM
Nicol, how is Charlie Wilson 'poorly crafted'? Or is that just something you're assuming without having seen it, and without defining your terms?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 23, 2007 02:08 PM
Jeffrey Boan: Figures. Sorry, but when I read something like "you know they needed a good kneecapping to bring them down a peg or two," it confirms my worst suspicions that the level of unbridled professional jealousy on this blog (and HE) is reaching toxic levels. You are by no means the worst offender in that regard. Indeed, compared to many, you are restrained in your schadenfreude. But I wonder if some of you insiders (or wanna-be insiders) ever wonder how you come across to some of us outsiders.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 23, 2007 02:50 PM
Joe, you write for Variety. You're not an outsider.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 23, 2007 07:37 PM
The best part of the [i]Stop Loss[/i] trailer was when Joseph Gordon-Levitt puts the bottle of beer through the window.
Other than that...
...meh.
Posted by: JBM...
at December 23, 2007 09:13 PM
"You could feel the audience's non-interest in another liberal preach-a-thon."
Is this some kind of sixth sense that people are supposed to have, or is Nicol just blowing smoke up his own ass again?
Posted by: Tofu
at December 25, 2007 05:25 PM
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