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With No Country the seeming frontrunner, the question becomes does it have the legs to make it all the way, or is there a dark horse that can overtake it when people start to fall out of love with it? And what could that dark horse be? So far, it doesn't seem too clear on what could overtake it. Sweeny Todd? Atonement? Into the Wild? Juno?

In a cool way, this seems like another year where anything in play could pull out the win. Fortunately, the movies seem stronger this year to justify their being in contention (a problem with the last couple of years).

What a strange list. Not bad exactly, but strange.

Fearless (and probably foolish) early Oscar predix:
"No Country" for picture, director, adapted screenplay and Bardem
(it's the Coens' year just like last year was Scorsese's-think of it as a premature lifetime achievement award)
Depp (SAG be damned) for actor (he's due)
Page (feel that "Juno" love)
Amy Ryan (residual Affleck love)
"Juno," original script (but will Diablo burn out as quickly as Callie Khouri, Hollywood's last femme scripter du jour? To show how far Khouri's star has fallen, her latest credit is the mortifying-looking "Mad Money" opening next month)
"Ratatouille" (duh)
foreign language is a total wild card; the best subtitled flick of the year ("Diving Bell") isn't even eligible.

See, this is what I don't get about this whole process for the last few years: every post DP makes on the subject of awards groups like this seems to consist of the same two thoughts:
"What does this mean for the Oscars?" which is then answered, "This doesn't mean anything."
It feels like a refrain.

Thank the maker. Now hopefully Depp won't be in the way of Daniel Day-Lewis picking up another Oscar.

Although it's possible Clooney could win here? SAG already awarded DDL recently for Gangs of New York.

Either way, not good news for Depp, even if he has the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe in the bag. Or does he?

J-Mc... do you want me to lie to you?

This stuff about "why do you bring up the Oscars" is like asking why I relate marketing to the box office success of a movie. NO ONE with a stake in a movie cares much whether the art is beautiful or ugly, smart or dumb, arresting or numbing, so long as it generates box office.

People who say that all these awards so will not be seen, in the end, almost exclusively in the context of Oscar are either ignorant or self-delusional. Sorry... that is reality.

I am happy to celebrate the achievements of artists along the way. They should be proud of every honor. And I have encouraged many filmmakers to be happy with what they get from groups other than The Academy, knowing full well that in the end, they will probably not win there. But no matter how disconnected people claim to be from that event... when it comes down to it, they all care A LOT. The journey can be sweet, but no one wants to come in #2, even if being #2 means being ahead of hundreds of other quality films and performances.

This is the nature of a beat I cover.

And sorry, Laz... Depp is still in the way at Oscar and yes, you are right in being concerned that Charming George will walk past Method Daniel at SAG.

Why is no one comparing INTO THE WILD with CRASH? Neither got much love from HFPA but got it from SAG. And industry types love this film. Keener was almost absent from all critics list for both CAPOTE and MALKOVICH, so I thinks she is a def. nominee. I'm hoping for an INTO THE WILD upset.

TRASH. TRASH. TRASH. Must it be brought up again and again?

DP, my point is that what you see as reporting the truth, I'm seeing as familiar schtick. I feel like you could copy the same articles you wrote a year ago merely by cutting and pasting names and movie titles out.

Jeff, I think these articles have a similar feel to them because this year is similar to the last couple. No one is able to discern the tea leaves, because the tea leaves are all over the place. This isn't a Chicago or Gladiator year, where one movie seems to be a foregone conclusion. So Golden Globes, SAG, etc., don't really tell us anything foregone, only that there are a lot of films and performances in play. I wonder if we go back and look at Dave's writings from a Gladiator or Chicago year if they wouldn't be quite different.

I'm sorry to tax your brain, J-Mc.

I suggest that you look to detail for meaning and not to themes. The awards season doesn't change from year to year, only the players and the details. This is true of most things in life.

There are minor chords that change - for instance, the darkness of the films this season and a lack of biopics - but part of my role is to make clear these greater, repeating truths and not to entertain you by pretending that there is a revaltion to be found in SAG nominations this year.

Of course, when I do get excited, the same people who piss on me for repeating themes crap on me for being too excited. As much as I love being our laxative, it gets boring.

The difference between us in that regard is that you have not only the right, but the instinct of self-preservation that suggests that if you feel that way you should stop reading the site... whereas I am simply your host, trying to keep the welcome mat clean.

And Umbacka... I think the reason is that they are too busy looking at Crash distributor Lionsgate and their 3:10 To Yuma aspirations.

But the point that Into The Wild is alive, alive should be made... and I made it last week.

DP, my point is that you don't tax my brain enough.

"Self-preservation"? Don't get it.

Depp not getting nominated is pretty shocking. The man is loved by his actor brethren. Loved.

Denzel not getting nominated is showing more people are seeing the movie.

No Philip Seymor Hoffman, bummer man.

If I had to make one for sure-pick come Oscar time: Javier Bardem.

Nice to know they actually took "best ensemble cast" to heart and nominated the likes of Hairspray - a true ensemble piece.

The lack of Atonement nods isn't very surprising if you've actually seen the film. Keira and James aren't your typical lead performances, Saiorse isn't likable in the way Dakota Fanning, Jamie Bell and Abigail Breslin were when they were nominated, and the "ensemble" isn't filled with famous people (ala American Gangster). I still assumed it'd be nommed here and there though.

Kamikaze, the one thing I've been shocked by this season is the lack of attention for McAvoy. I thought he stole the show in Atonement, and what worked for that film worked largely because of his terrific performance. I think it's a real shame he's getting overlooked.

Ideally either 3:10 or HAIRSPRAY win the ensemble award WITHOUT a BP nom from the academy. Would finally put some suspense back in the race for the 4 dozen of us that might still care.

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