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I sincerely hope that Best Pic chart is out of date because you have to be cracked in the head to have Atonement in front of Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood, not to mention Diving Bell. Into the Wild has now a CAS, a WGA, leads the SAGS and most importantly, a DGA. That is wide ranging support. Atonement has zip. NOTHING. Not a single thing.

Put Atonement and Juno below the other four and you have something. This is truly mind-boggling, sorry. WAY WAY WAY off where the race is headed. Your own prediction, perhaps, but in now way an accurate indicator.

I think DP did this list before the WGA noms, but you're right, Sasha. He should have had them both in front anyway. And I love how Hairspray is still floating above the "slim chance" group, in Picture and Actress. Old delusions die hard, apparently.

I still think Atonement will get the nod. It got a script, directing and drama nomination from the Golden Globes. I know the HFPA is not always the most reliable indicator, but I think a lot of folks in the Academy might opt for the flick that seems most Best Picturey. It would be insane if No Country, Blood, Into the Wild, Clayton and Diving Bell were the top five. Not that I would be complaining, but I just don't see it.

Obviously, I bow to your expertise Sasha, but I still think the race is wide open and Atonement could easily slip in there.

What Atonement has is that it looks like an Academy Award nominee, with its Britishness and costumes and wartime setting and pedigree. I know that sounds simplistic and reductive but hey, this is the Academy.

Diving Bell seems like the biggest longshot to me, personally. For one, we forget that even though all the main actors have done English Language roles before, this is a foreign language film. That's a big impediment. Also, it's a visually gimmicky film that might appeal to a smaller percentage of Academy members, regardless of how moving the film is. It's still somewhat experimental.

I think you're more likely to see Atonement in a BP slot, with Joe Wright's directing nom going to Schnabel. Focus is pretty good at getting their favorites recognized, and they don't have anything else to push besides Atonement, other than Viggo and some techs for Lust, Caution.

Noah, I don't think it won't for sure be nominated but right now it is in the long shot category. It's possible but there are so many movies trying to push through that fifth slot...I don't know how he can have There Will Be Blood and Into the Wild dropped down with the other long shots. I know nothing is ever for sure but to put Sweeney Todd and Atonement, two films that have been shut out everywhere for everything (except the Globes) on equal footing with those two movies is just plain nuts. And you know how much I hated There Will Be Blood.

Haha, I know. But as you are well aware, "nobody knows anything" so David's guesses may well turn out to be prescient. I think, based on the track record of the Academy, it's not far from the realm of possibilities that TWBB gets snubbed (despite the critical support) and Atonement gets the nom. It's such a wide open race this year that literally nothing would surprise me (okay, maybe if Zodiac got a nomination I'd be a bit surprised).

If anything on that last 2 slot "candidates" list is a shoe-in, it's THERE WILL BE BLOOD.

I hate to engage in schadenfreund, but ATONEMENT seems to have it's true colors showing with the WGA leaving them out. Bummer.

So I guess Lars and Juno wouldn't qualify for best Foreign picture?

Can people stop talking about Atonement as if it's just an accepted fact that the movie is shit. Cause it's not. Okay? it's fine for people to dislike it, but the way people are coming out of the woodwork all but going "duh!" is just really irritating.

anyway, Into the Wild is surely a lock by now, right? I'd count on it more than freakin' Michael Clayton and Juno!

Oh, and on the best director chart:

"A complete, powerful, classic movie with a real sense of directorial style"

REALLY? Honestly. Hmm, oh well.

Also, Tim Burton would be the "Scorsese of 2019" if they would ever nominate him.

As if Burton is anywhere near as important or accomplished as Scorsese is. I don't get that one at all.

Classic. WGA will not effect the Academy nods at all and are wrong in at least 3 cases pretty much every year.

I don't think Atonement is anyone's juggernaut at the moment, but it does have a hard core of support that likely voted before the media turned on the movie. It could certainly miss, but it could also get in. I have always said that it could never win.

As for Into The Wild, I hope it gets in over either Atonement or Blood... but it is way to easy to over-read precursors.

No doubt, it could be Wild and Blood. But this blood-curdling scream over Atonement is way too shrill. And you're after Juno too?

Talk to Academy voters. They are not the same as the media. Precursor obsession is overrated. That said, Atonement is in trouble. But neither YOU nor I know how much, really.

"Plain nuts?" Perspective, please.

I played the "something's gotta give" game. Here are the ones that lost: "Sweeney Todd", "Attonement" and "Michael Clayton". Then I repeated it again on this list and got "Michael Clayton". Draw your own conclusions.

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