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January 14, 2008

Major Force

So the axe fell at CBS/Paramount today, following last week's ABC/Disney bludgeoning. Expect the others to follow, as a deal with DGA gets closer.

Meanwhile, WGA is cutting more deals with The Minors, adding a web-based production company, MRC, and major producer/funder, Spyglass. Soon to join United Artists and The Weinstein Company appear to be Overture (another company with not an inch of skin in the game) and Lionsgate, which will probably hold off signing until after next Tuesday, when Saw IV comes out on DVD.

Meanwhile, the DGA deal remains a potentially big moment in breaking the WGA deadlock, but not so much the way people seem to think. If DGA makes a bad deal overall, by WGA’s reckoning, they will resist conforming. But there is a real chance that DGA will make a small inroad on the DVD deal that was taken off the table by WGA six weeks ago, this could lead to WGA getting the same, devaluing the internet obsession, and break the logjam. (Yes, the AMPTP has not been at the table. But it is clear that DGA is meant to be leverage and positive concessions by DGA mean something, just as negative ones. Negotiations of subtext have been going on the entire time that AMPTP has stayed home… as the HFPA learned so painfully last night.)

Even if DGA signs a weak deal, at least it is a distinct starting point for the others… as opposed to the ongoing “nothing is on the table” argument.

Hope for the best… expect the worst.

Posted by poland at January 14, 2008 06:52 PM

Comments

"But there is a real chance that DGA will make a small inroad on the DVD deal that was taken off the table by WGA six weeks ago, this could lead to WGA getting the same, devaluing the internet obsession, and break the logjam."

Obsession? That sounds negative. More like necessity. Isn't the internet issue basically why they're on strike in the first place? If they agree to some lesser (or non-existent) internet deal because they're getting a few more scraps from a slowly dying format (DVD), then they really deserve the pain they're going through. I can't believe their "leaders" (as misguided and lost as they are) would agree to any deal that replaces DVD residuals with potential internet residuals.

Then again, like you said, expect the worse. Nuts.

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2008 07:30 PM

The rest of the indusry who are losing their jobs are getting more and more pissed off every day, unfortunately.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2008 09:40 PM

Yeah, it was cute for a while, but people are out of work and need to start making money soon. My friends in IATSE do not get residuals.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2008 10:26 PM

Aris - By taking DVD off the table - for now - and focusing mostly on internet, they have quite clearly positioned potential internet residuals over DVD residuals... since the much bigger money is still in DVD, even as it declines.

A .1 percent increase in the DVD residual is clearly worth a lot more cash money that the entirety of what is being asked for on the web. And that increase should naturally go to internet downloads as well, since the DVD rate has been applied to purchased internet downloads by AMPTP companies already.

But the guild should get both... some movement on DVD/paid downloads and some reasonable rate for free streaming repeats.

Logically, there will never be a deal where the residual for a downloaded movie is 8x the residual for a DVD. How could that happen? It would be as silly for AMPTP as it has been for WGA for more than a decade.

There is no chance that internet will match DVD in the next five years. In my opinion, the failure of the union's position would be to bargain as though they can never strike again.

Yes, there should be an internet deal... and DGA has claimed that the will not sign without one. But the money is still in DVD by 20x to 30x revenues right now and will be for years to come.

More importantly, where does the guild go if the AMPTP companies come up with an alternate delivery system that is also not covered under this deal in clear terms. The biggest question is how they will deal with self-dealing, which is the biggest problem of the moment.

Yes, I think the internet drum has been overbeaten. It is the thing "we're not going to lose," but in being that, it is the too narrow long-view danger.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 14, 2008 10:51 PM

David I agree with you about sacrificing the DVD money for hoped for Internet money.

The contract is only for three years. I think it would have been better to really push for a better DVD cut now while there is still some life left in the medium and look to settle for a more modest gain in Internet residuals. Even if the Internet money takes off in unforeseen ways and becomes much larger than anticipated the contract will be over in three years and there will be room to negotiate next time.

Posted by: Sunday Silence [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2008 10:26 AM

"Yeah, it was cute for a while, but people are out of work and need to start making money soon. My friends in IATSE do not get residuals."

No, but their pension and health is paid for through a residual-like structure that's based on the residual rate that the WGA, DGA and SAG get.

Posted by: RDP [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 15, 2008 11:06 AM

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