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February 28, 2008

BYOB Mazatlan

The boat cruises along...

How floats your boat?

Posted by poland at 10:31 AM | Comments (34)

February 27, 2008

Is There Something Wrong With Oscar?

Bad ratings once again has brought a plethora of reactive, silly pieces about "what's wrong?"

As you know, I am on a boat, but this morning, it was Old Man Goldstein busy, as he so often does, mistaking his home for a place of importance in the scheme of things. Wrong!

There's nothing more pathetic than Traditional Media, unable to figure out the current marketplace, explaining to others how the current marketplace should work.

What happened to the ratings? It's not complicated. The expected acting winners and the ones who won in upsets were all, pretty much, unknown outside of the arthouse world. Juno was the one major box office hit in the group... but as excellent as Ellen Page is, she was the only acting nominee from the film and has not proved to be a "we have to tune in to see what she says" kind of public personality. The f-ing songs nominated from Enchanted... a movie most loved by the already committed Oscar viewers.

But this is the micro view... not very meaningful.

Paradigm shifts in media are most often driven by micro choices, but those choices are based on the macro view.

James Bond has had three major successful transitions in its 40 year (or so) history. From the serious Connery to the charmingly quippy Roger Moore to the Bond-as-many-think-of-him Brosnan to the rough and tumble hard edge of Daniel Craig. Yes, the actor matters. But the bigger idea of what a Bond is defines the change.

But The Academy Awards is NOT a movie. It is television. Deal with it.

And television is, like most media, narrowing. For everyone, except the Super Bowl, which is a four-quadrant event like Christmas, regardless of who is playing the game. Up a little for NY teams... down a little for small market teams. But the machine is much bigger than the game. And if it stops being that, that event too will become marginalized.

So the question can not be, "How can The Oscars be returned to its glory?" That is a disaster in the making.

The questions can only be, "What is it that makes this idea appealing to people?" and "How do we best design a show to fit that appeal?"

The answer is NOT The Rock... with due respect to the delightful scent of what he is cooking. it' also not loading up the show with every presented under 40 they could scrape up.

None of us know the answer for sure. But my sense is that there are two ways to go... toney or intimate. The Golden Globes was "the intimate choice," but has gotten less so over time. The toney choice is Steve Martin or the like hosting, cool enough to be smart, dry enough to never let them see him sweat... a show of utter elegance and produced in near black & white.

I kinda would like to see them try that multi-headed host thing again... go cross-generational. I mean, would you like to see up there? Let's not see a Judd Apatow Oscars. How about Amanda Bynes, Matt Damon, Sean Penn, and Meryl Streep? Or Amy Adams, Steve Carrell, George Clooney, and Kathy Bates? Or Luke Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Billy Bob Thornton, and Bruce Willis? Or Ian McKellen, Josh Brolin, Helena Bonham Carter, and Jennifer Garner?

Do the musical numbers as covers... serious covers... but serious names... that can seriously be sold after the show.

Add a category or two, like stunts.

And remember why people watch... to see emotion and glamor and the unexpected from people who they only know through their performances.

Or not.

All I am saying is that it might be more fun for Oscar to feel more like that ballroom at the Hollywood Roosevelt again.

Regardless, the ratings are likely to continue dropping until they reach the next natural plateau. It is the nature of the medium. You can make that plateau a little higher or lower, but you can't make this show the massive hit it once was again. It is the nature of niche.

And picking apart silly details - which The Academy itself was nervously doing even before the show this year - is not going to change that.

Posted by poland at 08:31 AM | Comments (33)

February 25, 2008

BYO Bon Voyage

We're pulling out of dock... The 10th Floating Film Festival is on its way.

I will be doing some writing as the cruise goes along. They have wi-fi this time. But mostly, it's up to you guys for a while.

Have fun without me... Just not too much!!!

Posted by poland at 05:16 PM | Comments (46)

Lunch With... The Oscar Winners

Javier Bardem
Marion Cotillard
Tilda Swinton
Alex Gibney

Posted by poland at 12:07 AM | Comments (23)

February 24, 2008

52 Weeks To Oscar aka My Oscar Yammering

Okay… that did have some surprises… and some good ones… and still, not all that exciting. (The winners)

I thought Jon Stewart was pretty good and the packages pretty mediocre at best. Whoever picked clips was having an odd night, sometimes picking the right scenes, but inevitably, the wrong moments.

The surprises I was most pleased with were Marion Cotillard, who actually deserved the win for La Vie en Rose and Tilda Swinton, whose performance I think was second to Blanchett’s, but who is an actor I have been touting for years, has never given a bad performance, and is daring in ways that are beyond compare. (If you want a Tilda primer, pick up The War Zone, The Deep End, and the last 20 minutes of Constantine, amongst her most mainstream work. And if you want to get why Bardem should already have two more of these on his mantle, check out Before Night Falls, The Sea Inside, and for a wild change of pace, check out Perdita Durango, Alex de la Inglesia’s one film in English and hair even wilder than Anton’s.)

It was also a very international Oscars, with 11 awards going to folks from other countries, including all four acting winners, art direction, costume, make-up, score, and song.

This is only the third time a French actress has won the Best Actress Oscar for and the first time winning for a role in French. (Simone Signoret won for Room At The Top in 1958 and Lila Kedrova in 1964 for Zorba The Greek.)

Cotillard is the 14th non-America to win Best Actress.
Daniel-Day Lewis represents the 18th win in Best Actor for a non-American.
Bardem is the 16th non-American to win Supporting Actor.
Swinton is the 18th non-American to win Supporting Actress.

This is the 19th time that more than one of the acting winners was not America... but only the second time in history that all four were not America. The last time was in 1964 when Peter Ustinov, Lila Kedrova, Rex Harrison, and Julie Andrews all won.

I was also quite pleased for Robert Elswit, though he and Deakins deserve worldwide acclaim as Co-Cinematographers of The Year. Both did magnificent work. And for that matter, Janusz Kaminski deserved to win too. Seamus McGarvey is a very good D.P., but Atonement wasn’t particularly special. The other efforts were.

People shocked by Transformers not bringing home The Gold are focusing, at least partially, on the wrong issue. Early word was that ILM would get behind Transformers and not Pirates… but apparently, there was some split and the single focus Rhythm & Hues vote pushed Golden Compass to the win. Also… I think general Oscar voters just didn’t want to vote for the big, dumb summer movie… which is not how the earlier Pirates and Rings films were seen. They are not analyzing effects.

Alex Gibney, who also produced the expected winner, No End In Sight, while being all things to his Taxi To The Darkside, which won, was eloquent and quite deserving, having been the dominant voice in the category this year. (Still, the most important doc of the year was still Lake Of Fire.) Gibney, who also co-directed Enron: The Smartest Guys In the Room, is the very real thing.

Amy Adams made a misstep by doing "Happy Working Song" without animated animals. It is such a broad piece that she seemed over the top, not like an Oscar nominee, while Kristen Chenoweth got the better of it with a full production number around "So Close."

Speeches were pretty good across the board, including Scott Rudin, who was utterly sweet and charming and clearly moved.

No Country’s 4 wins led the way. Bourne had 3, and La Vie en Rose and There Will Be Blood has 2 each. The other three BP nominees had 1 win apiece.

We also got a glimpse of Roderick Jaynes, though he didn’t seem to be in the room. And when The Coens won the first award, the announcer mentioned that they were nominated for two others… not three.

Overall, a decent night… a good group of winners…

P.S. 12:57 am - People are wondering out there... why no goodbye to Brad Renfro in the obit section?

Posted by poland at 10:37 PM | Comments (76)

Bring Your Own Oscar Yammering

Liveblogging died today... as every monkey with a keyboard, Traditional Media or New, feels a need to comment minute-by-minute on a show that everyone gets to see live. It seems to me to be about the equivalent of reading a column about sex during sex. Methinks your "partner" would be better served by a little concentration.

The day of verbal diarrhea as a communications medium is coming to an end.

I don’t blame most of the people doing these live blogs. They are either paid for the effort or trying to get attention that will get them paid… and there is nothing wrong with that. But if a single one of the liveblogging sites has as many as 1500 people reading at any given moment during the show, I will eat my friggin’ hat.

My personal rule – and perhaps a good rule for Money Media’s perspective on the web - is that when the number of words I write is greater than the number of people reading them, I need to be doing something else with my time.

Please do use this space to share with other blog readers and commenters. But I have a feeling that you all can wait until late tonight or tomorrow to gather my “insights” about the fourth joke in Jon Stewart’s monologue.

Posted by poland at 03:23 PM | Comments (96)

Gurus o' Change

We gave a chance for all 30 Gurus, Gold & 2.0 to offer last minute changes. As of this posting (1:11p pst), 3 have offered changes.

Ironically, a lot of the hubbub this weekend about an upset came from Pete Hammond, who was wondering aloud, in room after room, whether Marion Cotillard had closed the gap on Julie Christie. But no last minute request of a change for Pete.

Here are the trio. Others will be added if they turn up in the next couple of hours.

Susan Wloszczyna
Tilda Swinton for Supporting Actress
Transformers for Visual Effects

Mark Bakalor
Supporting Actor
2. Hal Holbrook Into The Wild

Supporting Actress
2. Tilda Swinton Michael Clayton

Art Direction
1. There Will Be Blood
2. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street

Costumes
2. Sweeney Todd

Animated Short
1. I Met The Walrus

Live Action Short
1. At Night
2. Le Mozart Des Pickpockets

Oscar Frenzy
Costumes
1. Sweeney Todd
2. Atonement

Supporting Actress
1. Amy Ryan
2. Tilda Swinton

Original Song
1. Falling Slowly
2. Raise It Up

Art Direction
1. There Will Be Blood
2. Sweeney Todd

Posted by poland at 01:05 PM | Comments (1)

Shame On Whom?

I was quite shocked when I read a Reuters report of Hillary Clinton claiming that Barack Obama was using tactics "right out of Karl Rove's playbook" and calling "Shame" on him regarding a claim that she would perhaps garnish wages to force Americans to pay for their universal health care.

I was more shocked when I read that she was accusing him and his campaign of lying about it when he has been saying this for weeks, including in the middle of the debate last Thursday... when she responded that he was also suggesting penalties, though his were only for parents who were not covering their children. She compared the need for every single person to be covered, by whatever means neccessary, to Social Security and Medicare.

The Reuters story noted: "Shame on you, Barack Obama," Clinton said, speaking to reporters after a rally in Ohio, a state that is key to her struggling campaign.

Brandishing a copy of the leaflet, Clinton said the Obama campaign was spreading "false, misleading, discredited information" about her health-care plan.

"Senator Obama knows it is not true that my plan forces people to buy insurance even if they can't afford it," Clinton said. "It is blatantly false and yet he continues to spend millions of dollars perpetuating falsehoods. It is not hopeful. It is destructive, particularly for a Democrat to be discrediting universal health care."

This accusation continued on her website.

From Hillary Clinton's website (2/23):
Fact Check: False and Misleading Comments from the Obama Campaign About Hillary’s Health Care Plan
Today an Obama spokesperson released the following statement: "And [Hillary Clinton] herself has said that under the Clinton health care plan, she would consider "going after the wages" of Americans who don't purchase health insurance, whether they can afford it or not."

This is false and misleading. Hillary has never said she would make Americans purchase health insurance they can't afford -- The Obama campaign is taking her words out of context in an effort to mislead voters and the press.

Now, there is plenty about this issue, in anti-Hillary propoganda, on right wing sites. But then I saw this...

From The ABC News site (2/3):
Sen. Clinton Weighs Garnishing Wages to Pay for Universal Health Care
Obama's Critique of Clinton's Mandate is "Absolutely Untrue," She Says
By MARY BRUCE
Feb. 3, 2008
Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., this morning left open the possibility that, if elected, her government would garnish the wages of people who didn't comply with her health care plan. "We will have an enforcement mechanism, whether it's that or it's some other mechanism through the tax system or automatic enrollments," Clinton said in an appearance on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos".

Clinton went on to say, though, that such mechanisms would not include penalties. "They don't have to pay fines … We want them to have insurance. We want it to be affordable. And what I have said is that there are a number of ways of doing that. Now, there's not just one way of getting to that."

For me, this is the biggest story of this campaign yet... since it is the first time that either Clinton is lying right to our faces about what she has said in the past or both the Obama campaign and ABC News are lying about her.

Either way, I think the biggest question is why this "lie," which was being discussed 3 weeks ago in public, was not addressed in debate - as opposed to taking shots in the media - when the person she is accusing was right in front of her and would be forced to answer for it in a public forum just three days ago.

Posted by poland at 12:30 PM | Comments (1)

SNL Oscar Parody

SNL did "I Drink Your Milkshake!" as a Food Network show, also parodying No Country and Juno in the process.

For some reason, I can't get YouTube this morning... so here is another site with the piece.

What struck me, however, was that the Oscar satire, the night before, was in the third half hour of the show... the half hour of the dregs. How little interest is there in The Oscars this year?

Posted by poland at 12:12 PM | Comments (9)

Weekend Estimates by Klady - Oscar Sunday '08

The only thing I can offer of any interest to these numbers this week is that it now looks like we will have the second February in five years - the exception being 2006 - without a single $100 million domestic grosser. And I forget each year that January has successful films... but all grossing under $100 million, a detail that remained true to form this year.

What really distinguishes this year's lack of 9-figure gold is how many films aspiring to that goal the studios threw at the first two months of the year. Cloverfield and 27 Dresses in January and Jumper and The Spiderwick Chronicles in February all revved the engines and then came up short... with four very different marketing strategies. Geek Love, Women, 4-Quadrant (leaning young), and Kids all failed to deliver the home run, the last two films being by far the most expensive risks. In the past, one or two such films were launched and once, three... never four.

The "year-is-down"/"theatrical is dead" stories should start soon. And it is unlikely the gross numbers will catch up much over the course of the year. The biggest year ever will not be duplicated. And the sky is not falling. This is not a business of selling toilet paper or razor blades. It's about the movies and the marketing opportunities that those films allow. And you're just not going to have three $300 million movies in May, a fourth in July, and three more $200 million-plus films in most summers. It's never happened before... and it won't happen again for a while.

Holiday 2008 could be up, with a Bond, a Madagascar sequel, a Harry Potter, The Day The Earth Stood Still, and a Jim Carrey comedy that may harken back to his good ol' days. But the year could easily be down by double digits by November 1. We'll see.

But for now, March...

Next week, New Line is hoping that a leap year Feb 29 date will be like last year's March date for Will Ferrell, who scored $119 million with Blades of Glory. Warners' 300 wannabe, 10,000 BC, opens dead on the $211 million hit's date. Horton Hears A Who is in the very successful Ice Age and Ice Age 2 slot. And God knows what Par is chasing with Drillbit Taylor, which seems like a summer movie being dumped in spring. And Sony's 21 hopes to be the second launch of Jim Sturgis, who built a base with teen girls in Across The Universe and looks to win over the boys here, supported by Kevin Spacey, Laurence Fishburne, and the threat of a tryst with Kate Bosworth.

FINALLY... The Oscar bump stories... mythology.

The last time we saw a bump like this - and it was significantly bigger - was 2004. Why? Because it happened to be the last year where the nominees and the release strategies matched like this. Juno had a minor bump after nominations, but the near $45 million "bump" for the film was really the pretty much expectable continuation of a very strong commercial run.

There Will Be Blood’s near $30 million was a rather obvious strategic expansion, as the film never had as many as 400 screens before nomination morning. There certainly was a big benefit to a nomination, but holding the film back was the key… and perhaps the key a nomination.

The “bumps” for Atonement, Michael Clayton, and No Country For Old Men are not anything out of the annual ordinary bump.

Posted by poland at 10:47 AM | Comments (8)

February 23, 2008

I've Got Indie Spirit, How About You?

The Spirit Awards are the best they have been in years, in great part because they are the most produced ISAs in years. Someone who is written for and is really a performer is just a better host of a looser show than a comic. And Rainn Wilson has been sublime.

More on the troubles of this being The Searchlight Awards later...

It's not that I don't think this movie, Juno, doesnt deserve the love. It just kinda sucks when one film that already has so much eats all indie films.

(The winners...)

Posted by poland at 03:01 PM | Comments (14)

Friday Estimates by Klady

Wow... look at that line-up!!!!

Posted by poland at 11:39 AM | Comments (21)

February 22, 2008

BYOscarB

It's the Friday before Oscar... three new wide releases (over 1000 screens) and I can only hope that Vantage Point doesn't suck relentlessly. Proud moments!

Is there anything left to say about Oscar (or anything else)?

You tell me.

Posted by poland at 08:59 AM | Comments (38)

Brother, Can You Spare 350 Dimes?

Nikki Finke has, once again, swept the LA Press Club awards with little or no apparent competition.

She is now being given awards for being the best online film critic... without any indication that she has even seen a movie this year. (Moreover, she has always mocked me for writing criticism... she the real journalist, above that lowly form... until it came to sending in an entry form.)

With due respect to Alex Ben Block & Co, these awards are a complete joke and they need to look at the world in a way that actually considers modern journalism.

It's not so much that Nikki won something. I can understand that. The Strike Queen did something unique this season and showed us how things can be online, for better or worse. The problem is that in two of the three categories of online, it appears that there was not a single person up against her (nominations are not offered on the LAPC site), as she not only won, but there was no 2nd place, as there were in all other categories.

Alex Ben Block, admittedly, made a point of reminding me that entering the awards was happening and that I should nominate myself. But as all of us who have been online for long enough to deal with "The Webbys" experienced, self-nomination for a fee ($35 an entry at LA Press Club) is not a happy road.

It is notable that every single winner and runner up in every category is from a nationally represented news organization, used to chasing Pulitzers, etc, in the pay-n-nominate process. This is not how the web thinks.

And the ego of it... do I really want an award I had to ask for? Should anyone?

Someone pointed out a while back that The Oscars required self-nomination. And I get that. But it's different. No one is NOT nominated by their companies if there is a ghost of a chance of a nomination. But at companies like The New York Times and Tribune Co, who is nominated and for what is the subject of all kinds of internal wrangling. Do we really aspire to the web joining that ungracious tradition... much as the winners are deserving of praise?

If LA Press Club is serious about being taken seriously (this is billed, humorously, as "1st ANNUAL NATIONAL ENTERTAINMENT JOURNALISM AWARDS"), they should get some nominating committees together, pick 20 or so nominees in each category, and break it down from there. List the 20... then the 10... then the 5... then the winner. Then, if there are people who feel left out of the 20, a method for allowing submissions can be created.

And a little transparency wouldn't hurt. Who are the candidates? And are we really expected to take any award bestowed by 3 people seriously? "National Journalism Award" voted on by a committee of 3? I mean...

This could all come under yesterday's theme in the Patrick Goldstein entry... maybe we just don't think alike. That's ok.

It would be nice to have a serious and respected award out there that breaks the narrow, political mold of The Pulitzers... but this clearly is not it... at least not as it is currently conceived.

Posted by poland at 08:22 AM | Comments (9)

February 21, 2008

20 Weeks... End Of Weeks

So… Money says No Country. Veteran status says No Country. The Editing Stat says No Country. DGA’s 70% picking BP winners, not Directing winners says No Country. The Golden Globes 90% Wrong in Best Picture (and how could they miss Return of the King?) with 10 shots in the last five years says No Country. NY Film Critics (3 matching in the last 10 years), BFCA (6 of 10), and SAG (5 in 10) all say No Country. And more than double the critics awards of any other film and five times the number of Best Picture wins of the next closest titles...

It ALL seems to say No Country.

And there is no reason to really think it won’t win. The people around the film have not strutted around like they already won it. There is no “must love” film sauntering around in the background… just four films with strong constituencies for adult conscience drama, directing, comedy, and period romance. Even its male lead, Tommy Lee Jones, got an Oscar nod… for another picture… but contributing to the ‘feel right” of it all.

It is likely to be as boring and pleasant an Oscar night as any in memory.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 12:04 PM | Comments (23)

Just For Variety

I just want to comment on the rumors that Movie City News is in talks to purchase Variety from Reed Elsevier...

But I have been told not to do so.

All I can say for now is that we have an unshakeable faith in Charlie Koones and appreciate that his exit from the publishing chair of the trade made sense when it became apparent that they were about to hold a fire sale rather than investing in a more aggressive future.

Posted by poland at 12:00 PM | Comments (13)

Patrick's From Venus...

I don't read The Envelope. With due respect to some writers there I admire, the quality of the product is not good and the print version stands as a weekly testament to why print media is having such a hard time versus the web.

But I did look at the thing this morning, waiting on a director for an interview... and I saw this in Patrick Goldstein's "Winners & Losers" piece...

The Big Eight studios: Never has there been a greater gulf between the popcorn sensibility of the major studios and the quality consciousness of critics and academy members. With the exception of "Michael Clayton," none of the best picture nominees was released by a major studio. The only studio that still consistently hits home runs with both critics and consumers is Pixar, which should get an Oscar for sustained excellence.

At first, I shortcutted a, "Wha?" But then I really gave it some thought. Patrick Goldstein is not stupid. He is not ignorant. He is not crazy. The piece suggests that he may be lazy, but...

First... what "big eight" studios? I count 6 majors (Disney, Fox, Par/DreamWorks, Sony, Universal, Warner Bros), MGM (which isn't making movies on its own), and what, Lionsgate as #8? Weinstein Co? DreamWorks? Is that how he counts?

There are six "big" studios... period. Everyone else is an IPO waiting to happen.

Second, on what planet does he still delude himself into thinking that "the big six" are not in the Oscar game with their indie-minded Dependents? Has he noticed that three of the four Best Picture nominees "not from the big eight" are too expensive to qualify for The Independent Spirit Awards, whose price range has been overinflated for years? (And the one that did qualify, Juno, will win most of what it’s nominated for this Saturday.)

Did he notice that "big" Fox and Disney and Sony and Paramount didn't even field serious candidates for awards this year?

How can you lose if you choose not to play? And hasn't Patrick seen Tom R. & Jim G. at Juno functions as they were at Sideways functions, appearing even more often than Peter Rice? Didn't he hear about John Lesher "moving up" at Paramount?

But then I thought… we’re just speaking in two different dialects? Maybe he thinks I am off my game as well. Maybe he is steeped in ideas that I simply don’t consider valid anymore. Maybe new ideas seem like they haven’t been proven out yet.

I don’t know. But it is surreal to me some days.

Posted by poland at 11:16 AM | Comments (7)

February 20, 2008

The Deep New Blu

Both No Country For Old Men and Michael Clayton landed on my doorstep today in Blu-Ray... and all I can say is, "Wow."

Neither is exactly a feast of extras. But the images...

We have seen many of these scene over and over and over again. But the image on Blu-ray is profoundly more beautiful, even on shots like The Coen's simply doing a POV of a car zooming down a road.

Also racing into Blu are Ratatouille, 3:10 To Yuma, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, In The Valley Of Elah, Gone Baby Gone, and La Vie En Rose, but only in France. (Persepolis and Enchanted are soon due in the format from their studios and I'm wondering whether Sweeney Todd will delay for Blu-ray to be a Par/DW option.)

(Transformers, The Bourne Ultimatum, and I think, American Gangster are now available in HD only)

For the first time, The Academy membership could have the opportunity to see the films in contention is a format that is close to the quality of going to the movies. It is still not the same and will never replace it for me. But I think, even as HD died, Sony lost the oportunity this season of creating a block of "super delegates" who would spread the gospel of Blu-ray (the same was true of HD when the season started). The people who get screeners are a group in which a high percentage could afford to buy the hardware... but mostly have not, though I would get a significantly larger group than "overall American TV owners" have bought hi-def sets. With a few of the top titles in their mailbox in this remarkable format, not only could Sony have moved a bunch of Blu-ray players, but they had the chance to inspire bland loyalty and a lot of press around the format in the media... especially in a year with little Oscar news to report.

Would The Diving Bell & The Butterfly have gotten further with Blu-rays to watch? With all the problems I have with the third act of There WIll Be Blood, the Blu-ray will be an absolute must-buy, years beyond the 2-dvds it was sent out on by Paramount Vantage. Same with Michael Clayton's 2-disc send out, which was not very well done, even by straight DVD standards.

Me... I'm just thrilled to be looking at these terrific movies, as I once was just getting tapes and then getting DVDs, in such a wonderful way... while the season is still happening. And I am excited that hi-definition has created a greater interest in my life and work again for home entertainment. The ability to experience the work of our greatest filmmakers is this form, especially the catalog stuff - Kubrick is killin' me - is like going back to the revival houses of my college years. Sensational.

Posted by poland at 03:13 PM | Comments (41)

The Beginning Of The End?

"Now others might be joining a movement. Well, I'm joining you on the night shift, and on the day shift."

Hillary Clinton, slapping at the candidate that is beginning to run away with the race.

Yeah... Hillary is working that night shift... and that day shift. Blue Collar Clinton? Is she kidding?

A big part of her base has been older conservative Democrats, slow to move away from the familiar. But the idea of Hillary Clinton as "one of them" can be seen as nothing less than laughable, even to her most ardent supporters.

(Smartly, she is slowing the anti-rhetoric rhetoric. Her preaching against preaching will never work.)

And now... The Teamsters are going for Obama, all 1.4 million members.

Almost more profoundly, Jimmy Hoffa II is endorsing a black man for the American presidency.

People ask why I have an interest in the Oscar race. It's because it is interesting political theater. But THIS is real political theater and some of the best in my adult lifetime. Whatever side of it you are on, it is really, really exciting.

Posted by poland at 12:42 PM | Comments (4)

February 19, 2008

Where The Wild Rumors Are

From WB -

Below please find a statement from director, Spike Jonze regarding Where The Wild Things Are in response to a clip that is being posted recently online.

“that was a very early test with the sole purpose of just getting some footage to Ben our vfx (visual effects) supervisor to see if our vfx plan for the faces would work. The clip doesn’t look or feel anything like the movie, the Wild Thing suit is a very early cringy prototype, and the boy is a friend of ours Griffin who we had used in a Yeah Yeah Yeahs video we shot a few weeks before. We love him, but he is not in the actually film...Oh and that is not a wolf suit, its a lamb suit we bought on the internet. Talk to you later...“

Posted by poland at 07:29 PM | Comments (15)

Wow-Bama - 2.19.08

Driving around today, I had the chance to listen to the righties on talk radio. All Obama attack, all the time. It's like the race is over in their minds.

After winning Wisconsin, John McCain gave a speech that sounded like a fall campaign stop, attacking Obama about 5 times to every shot at Clinton (both never named).

Then, after losing Wisconsin, Hillary Clinton was mouthing almost the same speech as the Republicans had all day.

It's truly breathtaking. To see both sides of the aisle lining up against this man, spouting almost the same negative rhetoric, just makes him stronger and stronger. He is no longer the underdog, but how can we see him any other way when so much is against him? They keep trying to find the Kryptonite... but more and more, they are becoming the sun that is powering his flight.

What do you do if you are Hillary and have lost 10 states in a row? The tone of her attacks and the failure to stay on point is what made her so vulnerable in the first place. What we are seeing now makes perfect sense.

Meanwhile, Obama is already doing what Republicans have done so well... he is staying on point, no matter what the attacks.

And really, when has the American presidency ever been determined by facts and figures and not the great voice. People talk about the tallest candidate almost always winning, but what about the best orator?

23 states (and DC) to 10. 15 to go.

Remarkable.

Posted by poland at 06:38 PM | Comments (89)

SAG Fight Tonight!

The growing wave of pre-contract civil war at SAG is making the WGA guys look like a bunch of unmitigated geniuses.

There are three fronts in the war.
1. We Don’t Want Another Strike This Year
2. SAG vs AFTRA
3. Qualified Voting

The biggest problem facing SAG leadership right now is trying to separate the three issues… a problem made harder by questions of who might be lurking behind some of the maneuvers.

The Rest...

Posted by poland at 03:33 PM | Comments (1)

BYOB - Tuesday 2/19

Posted by poland at 11:30 AM | Comments (11)

Still Trying To Catch Up...

Posted by poland at 11:13 AM | Comments (3)

I'm Kinda Stunned

It was only a matter of time before Lindsay Lohan offered a direct answer to the most popular request at Mardi Gras. But I have to say... dumb move!

Did someone tell this poor, spiraling actress that she looked like a little naked girl with big breasts, no curves on any other part of her body, and a face that now looks like Marilyn's less sexy sister after 30 years of sitting in the sun in Miami Beach?

I hate to spend time objectifying The Most Overly Objectified Living Woman On The Earth 2007, but it is a sudden nude photo display in New York Magazine (huh?). And aside from having a nice set of mammary glands... and in spite of having a nice set of mammary glands... shark... jump... eat... Fonzie... eat... Lindsay.

About the only thing I am less interested on seeing in Celeb World now is another shot of any part of Ms. Spears: The Elder's anatomy.

Or maybe she is aiming at so low a bottom that we will all have to root for a comeback.

Posted by poland at 01:54 AM | Comments (40)

February 18, 2008

Klady's 4 Day Estimates

Posted by poland at 11:52 AM | Comments (21)

BYOB - President's Day... oy...

David "Not The Bagger Here" Carr kicks out an excellent column about Obama fever and the idea that it may actually be changing news viewing habits of the younger set (and more).

And btw, it finally occurred to me what a nasty spin the whole "Is Obama ready?" scam is... when you realize that Mrs. Clinton should be asked about how her husband had even less experience in international affairs when he took office.

The is that the last 30 years of The Presidency (five presidents) has consisted of 4 governors and one experienced Washington figure... George HW Bush. All governors come up against the question of international experience. And before Carter, you had the very experienced, very ineffective Gerald Ford, political maven Tricky Dick Nixon, smoky room man LBJ, and John F Kennedy… 8 years into is Senate career.

I don’t want to see Obama succeed based on Hillary bashing, but neither do I want to see the legitimate enthusiasm for him tempered by attacks that are so easily put into perspective for the weak slaps they are.

Argue for experience all you like, but if you do, you have to throw cold water on Clinton and Reagan as well as W and Carter.

Happy PD!!!

Posted by poland at 01:40 AM | Comments (29)

When Did Brian Lowry Become An Old Crank?

I clicked on Brian Lowry's Variety column, titled "Strike unleashed Internet ire" and sub-headed, "Mob mentality rules on talkbacks, boards," thinking... hmm... maybe he's walking in the same footprints I set out last week, but ok, maybe he has something interesting to add...

Nope!

Instead, we get what Variety has become the master of lately... vitriolic whining about the internet, no specifics, open acknowledgement that “they” really don’t care much for the web or the idea that anyone not anointed by print is allowed to be given positive credit for any idea at all.

Really, how is anyone supposed to take a writer who offers this combination of comments seriously?

First -
“After a brief experiment with being LinkedIn to colleagues and acquaintances, I found the process to be a time-wasting annoyance with no discernible benefits. Yet social-networking adults continue to emulate teenagers, which seems a dubious goal at best.

Later –
“The Web fosters an unrealistic sense of how widely held their views are. As an example, a woman indignantly responded to a recent review I wrote by emailing that ‘the purpose of your job ... is to relate to viewers like me, the general public. Get to know what we tend to like.’”

Of course, I completely agree with Lowry that a critics’ opinion is not about taking the pulse of the public. That is a fool’s errand.

But in one graph, he dismisses social networking utterly because of his lack of interest in it (one I share) and then in the next, dismisses a (surely online) reader of his for overreaching in their opinion. In other words, if you agree with me, you are the mainstream. And if not, you are a damned web loser, full of yourself.

Again, what so disturbs me about this screed is that I agree in principle with a lot of what Lowry has to say. Yes, minority groups were given way too much cred during the WGA strike via the manipulation of the web… just as the extreme right is by Traditional Media during national election campaigns.

Yes, people tend to turn into raving assholes when they are given the power of anonymity on the web… as are many journalists when given the cover of a “major” media outlet.

Yes, much of the dialogue is coarse. But it is often actual dialogue, for better or for worse, and this is more than you can say about life inside the bubble of Traditional Media.

The most shocking thing about the piece is how it manages to piss willfully over an entire developing medium and shows a profound lack of courage by refusing to engage its subject directly. It is, virtually, the embodiment of what is wrong with Traditional Media in this era. Love her or hate her, doing this story without naming Nikki Finke is cowardly. Equally heinous is indulging in all this name calling without really addressing the real issues of how the most extreme factions took control of the storytelling about this strike by using the web effectively. There is a real story there, not just another opportunity to bore us all with weeping about that out of control internet. (It is, however, a blessed miracle that there was no mention of cats falling in toilets on YouTube in the entire piece!)

Anwyay… as I wrote… I agree with Lowry on much of this, in principle. But I haven’t closed the intellectual drawbridge in my ivory castle with Sir Bart-a lot and Goldstein: Earl of Agent Lunching, unable to defend my position with anything more than insults.

You couldn’t write an argument more coarse and less seriously considered than this one.

The internet era ruffians Stone & Parker mocked this kind of thinking a few years back with an Oscar nominated paean to misguided anger against something that might actually be worth arguing about… “Blame Canada.”

Posted by poland at 12:03 AM | Comments (1)

February 16, 2008

Klady's Friday Estimates - Jumpered the shark

Posted by poland at 08:45 AM | Comments (62)

February 14, 2008

In Toronto

I'm in the great white north to participate in a celebration of the life of my friend, Dusty Cohl. It's tomorrow morning at the Elgin Theater, a big house for a big man.

In the meanwhile, we dined this evening at one of the ultimate Dusty locations, the Spadina Gardens chinese restaurant, which was a "must stop" location every Tuesday night during the Toronto Film Festival... at Dusty's insistence. It was a bit of a secret, as not everyone was invited. But the regulars included critics like Ebert, The Corlisses, Rex Reed, and some Canadian journos as well as a prime selection of execs, local heroes, friends, newbies... everyone that Dusty brought into his ever extending family.

As it turned out, we found this in front of the SG's door tonight...

A trip uptown found this image familiar from annual visits to TIFF... but different...

And finally, as long as I am posting crap iPhone images... this one is from back in L.A... my favorite Oscar billboard ever...

Posted by poland at 09:59 PM | Comments (6)

The One Where Hollywood Shuts Down Without A Strike

Others have spoken to this, but I think it demands a headline...

New film production will stop around Tax Day if productive talks that seem to mean avoiding a strike are not well underway by then. As with so many of the windmills of the WGA strike, it's not personal... It's math.

Many of you know this already, but if you are mid-production with a flawed script, things are not optimal, but you don't shut down either. If the actors walk, however, you do. That minute. Forever.

A SAG strike, even in the last week of production of an 8 week shoot is a disaster.

So, even if there never is a SAG strike, months of work can be lost. This time, it is a movie problem in a real way.

This is not to say that SAG shouldn't strike if they feel they aren't getting a good deal in bargaining. In fact, the ongoing threat of a SAG strike are far more potent than WGA's were, if only because the economies of the WGA strike, for the studios, will not be revisited. A SAG strike would hurt from Day One and never stop hurting. Even reality programs would be hit, with star and host talent unlikely to be willing to cross the lines, even out of jurisdiction (meaning talk shows again).

This may all seem obvious to many of you, but like I said, it needs pointing to. Late June feels far away and people need time to heal. But the clock has started... And we're just 2 months away from the first major shots across the bow.

(podded)

Posted by poland at 08:21 AM | Comments (9)

BYOB - Thursday 2/14

Posted by poland at 12:28 AM | Comments (65)

February 13, 2008

Hot Button - Separating The Blogs From The News

Here is the problem for the TMers ... the spirit of blogging, exposing who they really are and how they really feel is nasty, dangerous stuff for them. You have to wonder whether they can ever go back now that the genie is out of the bottle.

Not every journalist is a born debater ... or creative writer, for that matter. Not every journalist is built to write a blog.

And what Traditional Media should understand better than anyone on the web and doesn't seem to understand at all ... there is a basic law of diminishing returns on the web. The more a paper turns into a series of mediocre blogs by minor personalities, the closer to the end of that paper we get.

Just ask Nick Denton, who humiliatingly has been forced to return to heavy lifting for Gawker Media as the harsh reality of Blogging As Business caught up with him and his business, who has learned that niche really is niche. So will Traditional Media. (After I wrote the foundation of this piece, on Sunday night, Defamer I, Mark Lisanti, announced his exit and word is that Denton is looking for a "name" blogger from outside of the Gawker Media family to replace him ... a first time, desperate act.)

The rest...

Posted by poland at 01:00 AM | Comments (1)

February 12, 2008

The Irresistible Force

We have now won east and west, north and south, and across the heartland of this country we love. We have given young people a reason to believe, and brought folks back to the polls who want to believe again. And we are bringing together Democrats and Independents and Republicans; blacks and whites; Latinos and Asians; small states and big states; Red States and Blue States into a United States of America.

This is the new American majority. This is what change looks like when it happens from the bottom up. And in this election, your voices will be heard.

( The rest of the speech... )

Posted by poland at 11:36 PM | Comments (36)

BYOB - Strike Ends

And so it is done...

Everybody happy?

Posted by poland at 07:08 PM | Comments (38)

Following Julian

I don't quite know where the obsession with beating up on Julian Schnabel started. It kinda pisses me off. The guy has done some very beautiful work, gotten some truly spectacular performances, and is one of the great characters/drama queens of the film world. For me, someone who gets pissed off about a guy who wears pajamas everywhere just has their hat on too tight.

Anyway... it was amusing to me that Page Six was so busy smacking at JS and so uninterested in the story behind the story that they missed the money shot of their piece today. (To be fair, it appears that Schnabel found the book still in galleys, as there is no trace of the book itself on the web.)

Here's the piece...

And here are some images of Rula Jebreal, an Italian immigrant from Palestine, now TV journalist, turned book writer is a thoughtful voice on immigration issues, clearly willing to fight with the men's club in Italy, and simply, one of the most beautiful women I have ever seen in my life. (I had the pleasure of a quick "hello" at a TDB&TB event a few months back.)

I predict international superstardom for a world class beauty with a world class brain with a world class promoter (and talent) like Julian by her side in the fight.

Good for both of them. Of course it is irrelevant on some level that this woman makes mere mortals dumb in her presence... but let's not be naive. If she is everything that has been suggested about her intellectually and she gets to look like a supermodel, she's one in a billion.

Don't be hatin'...

Posted by poland at 02:31 PM | Comments (18)

February 11, 2008

HD Is Dead, Long Live HD

This body blow cannot be underestimated.

As an owner of a Blu-ray and an HD player, I am quite conscious of how retailers are handling the product. One sign of the slow growth has been at retailers who have embraced DVD, but have not stocked hi-def, such as the major bookstores, groceries with larger DVD sections, etc. Even Target and Wal-Mart have minor stock in hi-def. Everyone seems to be waiting, leaving consumers who are not looking for new technology unaware that anything of significance is even out there.

But there have been two places that have consistantly offered prime placement for both formats.

No more.

There was this announcement from Best Buy today that they will give preferential placement to Blu-ray from now on. But this is really the coup de grace... Netflix sent this note out to customers today...

OUCH.

Posted by poland at 02:50 PM | Comments (22)

Why Studios Don't Matter To Marketing

This one is on me, but it makes a bigger point.

I just found an e-postcard from Warner Bros for what I assumed was a Paramount movie... Fool's Gold.

Why did I assume? Because this was a kind of film that Paramount was making over and over.

Of course, Warners made New Line franchise Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Fox style I Am Legend and Music & Lyrics, Universal style License To Wed, etc.

Of course, Paramount's Beowulf was classic WB, Fox's Epic Movie was pure Dimension, Universal's I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry was built for Sony, and Will Ferrell can't seem to work for one studio for more than a few months... but hey, we even have Judd Apatow at Sony doing a Will Ferrell movie with John C Reilly as Will and flopping in December.

Only Disney is DISNEY these days.

Posted by poland at 12:21 PM | Comments (15)

Down The Corridor With Roy

For me, All That Jazz is one of the seminal movies of life.

And for Roy Scheider, it was, as much as Jaws and Marathon Man, his quintessential role. Scheider was a minimalist in front of the camera... so much so that it sometimes seemed like he wasn't working at all.

Schlesinger and Friedkin and others seemed to know this, using him as close-to-the-vest characters, often with some secret waiting to emerge. He was the perfect center to Spielberg’s Jaws, as Dreyfuss and Shaw showed their teeth as much as Bruce, Scheider was the “us,” and all he needed to do to hit the ball out of the park, attacked by Speilberg’s rack focus, was to move emotionally from asleep to wide awake in one beat… not histrionic, not massively emotive… just identifiably real.

All That Jazz was the rare opportunity to play and play and play a character, full, to the brim. And Scheider made it work. In spite of not being a dancer or a singer or a choreographer, he found the physicality needed. And he gives one of the truly great performances of resignation in film history. Scheider was not the natural charismatic that William Holden was, which is why he never became a superstar. But in that role, he made that magic happen. And he never came close again.

(I tend to think that The Men’s Club is a key movie in the history of a number of important actors. Scheider, Craig Wasson, Richard Jordan, and Treat Williams seemed to stop dead after this tribute to male ego. Harvey Keitel and Frank Langella have both found great third acts in the 20 years since then.)

All That Jazz is a straight guy’s guide to the love of the theater. (Richard Pryor’s view of his life and Steve Martin’s recent autobiography are similarly rare and wondrous.) As such, it is also, I suppose, a pretty good representation of what gay men and women love about theater as well. Fosse had his own demons and his own way of treating the women who so obsessed him. But the power of creation. The lies we tell – and believe – under stress, to ourselves and others. The power of affirming life in the process. And the risk… the risk… the risk. Will they love it? Will they hate it? Does it matter? Can an artist ever trust “them,” even when choosing to work in a populist medium?

Scheider brought that love and that hate and that love to life perfectly. And he reminds us of how so many actors with great careers – and Scheider’s was 50+ years in front of the camera – have The Moment… that period of just a few years when the magic comes upon them and the world is theirs. For Scheider, it was nearly a decade, from Klute to The French Connection to The Seven Ups to Jaws to Marathon Man to All That Jazz. And then, poof. It reminds us how amazing a long career in the movies really is. He had his moments… films like Blue Thunder and 2010 and 52 Pick-Up and for some, Seaquest SKG.

But he had that great decade and in it, stamped himself on the history of cinema… more than most can say.

Posted by poland at 11:43 AM | Comments (14)

Hillary Is On Jack's Bucket List

This was waiting for me on my voicemail when I arrived home tonight...

Nicholson for Clinton
(This link should launch a small QT audio file for you.)

Posted by poland at 01:11 AM | Comments (18)

February 10, 2008

Weekend Estimates by Klady - Feb 10

Not all that interesting this week. How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days opened to $23.7 million five years and this opening is almost the same. Women still want to see if two bottle blondies can make it work.

First Sunday opened to $17.7 million... so Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins is in line with that too. People still want to see wacky black families.

Hanna Mon Milley dropped... duh... and boo-hoo, Disney will have to live with just $54 million from a $5 million concert movie that they never really meant for theatrical anyway, now the next giant Home Ent release, as it likely beats the December trio to the DVD store.

Juno chugs along, easily the biggest Fox Searchlight film ever... but still likely to come up short of Knocked Up, though a little ahead of Superbad.

There Will Be Blood will pass $30 million, heading to the mid-30s... a milkshake drinking success for Paramount Vantage, even if the film cost about the same as money-losing Babel, The one advantage, financially, being that this film had two months less advertising money to burn while waiting around not to win the Oscar.

No Country For Old Men and Atonement both keep chugging along with excessively-discussed-by-journos $2m-n-Change weekends. Michael Clayton fell off a little this week to $1.6 million as the DVD release started getting touted heavily. Atonement will end up about $10 million past Pride & Prejudice for its nomination reward... which is probably less than it cost them in ads after being nom'ed... though the Oscar profit tends to be foreign & DVD.

And my personal fave... sometime in the next week, The Bucket List will pass Cloverfield as the old guys with bad reviews push past the young guys with overly generous reviews and we are all reminded yet again that old people and women and every bit as powerful as niche plays as geek boys... they just aren't as easy to suck in on one weekend.

Posted by poland at 10:36 AM | Comments (29)

February 09, 2008

Uhhhh...

Over the transom tonight...

The Envelope | Feb. 9, 2008 | 7:55 PM PT
---

WGA strike not over Monday

Read more: http://link.latimes.com/r/KCUBQP/PRHNI/FISQBX/DWTL/O1F85/VU/t

This link doesn't as of this writing, link to the story.

There is this story.

All of it hinges on an LA Times-er in the hall, who is not supposed to be reporting. Kinda scabby. On the other hand, we are all getting and hearing text messages.

NY went fine. LA is going fine. The strike is over. The only question is what day it ends.

One group of people are pretty sure that the committees voting tomorrow late morning will approve and then suspend the strike. Others are saying that they will wait for a membership vote. But going into the meeting, the expectation was that the vote was 10 days to 2 weeks away, but the strike would be suspended on Sunday afternoon.

Just what working WGA members need... another week off! Genius.

Posted by poland at 10:21 PM | Comments (13)

Friday Estimates by Klady - 1/8

Posted by poland at 09:01 AM | Comments (32)

February 08, 2008

BYOB - Strike Ending Weekend

So... here is some space for you all to stretch out.

The strike is, in effect, over... as it effectively has been since the DGA did their deal.

If, in fact, the Guild got the added bump of a 2% residual on streaming that starts in a couple of years, as the NYT reports in their buried lead, there is REALLY no excuse for even considering a vote against.

Right now, the thing I will most strongly take away from this strike is how the notions of how to work a strike have become terribly outdated and spectacularly irrelevant.

I don't know why they keep reaching for the "it's not over yet" crap, but it really is the last gasp of an aging culture. Settling this strike was never about the Oscars or the Golden Globes or Jay Leno or The Agents... it was, is, and will always be about money, money, ego, and money.

Anyway... there is Hannah Montana, Hudson/McConaughey 2, and "urban" comedy to discuss. The beat goes on...

Posted by poland at 11:29 AM | Comments (45)

Hysterical

I got a big laugh out of the New York Times anointing a new Strike Queen in Laeta Kalogridis, who runs, with others, UnitedHollywood.com.

When there is nothing left to write about there is always an agent out there creating a legend. Back in November, it was Nikki Finke deifying Bryan Lourd, who was going to save the industry with back channel aplomb. This time, it's Michael Cieply selling Endeavor's Rick Rosen's scam that his client ended the strike. Good gosh a mighty!

I actually respect Laeta's work during this strike. The site has been a hotbed of hyper-drooling excess at times, but unlike Crazy Nikki, she never claimed to be acting as a journalist. And even in the face of this silly NYT lede, she shows modesty and grace.

But her agent does not.

Long live the queen.

Posted by poland at 11:17 AM | Comments (0)

20 Weeks To Oscar - 17 Days To Go

The Ten Rules Of The Season
Don't Be The Frontrunner ... Unless You Can't Lose
Don't Start Late ... Unless You Have The Nuts
Being The Underdog Requires Illusion
Every Scheme Works ... Every Scheme Fails
Critics Only Matter When Unanimous

Posted by poland at 10:16 AM | Comments (15)

Who's Selling This Stuff?

It's one thing when Crazy Nikki Finke gets obsessed with tearing Bob Shaye a new one because one of her dark masters tells her too... God knows who that one is. But now Business Week's uber-hack Ron Grover, who gets it wrong endlessly and has become exposed since the web gave anyone out of the magazine's small circle a chance to read him, is pushing a WB absorption of New Line also...

For all the problems New Line has had… are these monkeys out of their minds???

The easy part of this is the biggest question… when has a total absorption of a mini inside a studio worked.

The answer: Never.

Searchlight marketing is in-house. Par Vantage marketing is in-house. Miramax marketing is in-house. DreamWorks marketing still has a strong in-house component, though there is a more clear crossover on the bigger, non-award pictures. And Dimension, when it was part of Disney… in-house.

Now you get to the more personal issue, to WB… which makes this suggestion even stupider.

Does Ron Grover know that there is no official marketing chief at Warners right now?

Has Ron Grover noticed that WIP, which has had more direct big WB oversight than New Line does, has been a relative car wreck?

Is Ron Grover really suggesting that the company that brought us Superman Returns, The Ant Bully, Lady In the Water, and the ambitious arthouse flops The Good German and The Fountain, not to mention the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee in recent history, Letters From Iwo Jima all in one year needs more on their plate?,

While Ron Grover is busy in the utterly insane game of mouthing stats about average box office gross between the major (WB) and a studio that releases 3 big films a year and otherwise works in genre (NL) making the comparison insane, has he even considered the budgets (particularly in marketing) that the two different entities use to get to those grosses?

And while we’re at it, maybe I should point out that even the numbers Grover uses are false. Some might suggest, intentional lies to make his case. New Line released 13 films in 2007, not 17, as misleadingly suggested in his piece. The average was $37.9 million, not Grover’s $28.6m. Where did he get this false number? He looked at Box Office Mojo’s calendar gross chart, which includes holdover from the year before’s movies that are grossing something in the new year. And unlike years past, where a Rings film would make that number more impressive, in 2007 that meant counting the last $11,401 of the Texas Chainsaw sequel (week 14) as part of the average for the year. Likewise, the last $22k of Tenacious D and the last $1.4m of The Nativity Story. The only holdover that had a significant percentage (more than 4%) of the total gross was Little Children, the 2006 release that generated just over half its domestic gross in 2007.

How dare he?!?!

You want to take down a company, do it honestly and show the respect of getting the numbers right.

To his credit, in an incredibly bad show of journalistic laziness, he makes the same dumb mistake with Warner Bros, which averaged $61 million per release in 2007, not $40 million.

This is the plight of people who want to shortcut their stories using Box Office Mojo without paying attention to the details.

Does someone really need to point out to Mr. Grover that WB hasn’t had much success in releasing niche pictures because, like all majors, they aren’t built for it. (Sony Screen Gems… in-house.) Or did he not see the numbers for The Astronaut Farmer or The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford or Rails & Ties? Did he not notice that New Line did significantly better with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle franchise, even in its weak third sequel, which in perspective was #34 at the box office in its year of release while this year’s revamp was #46 and had no cultural impact at all.

Absorbing New Line would be an act of unmitigated vanity on the part of WB and on a business level, simply, stupid.

Just last year, WB had perhaps the worst summer of any studio in the modern history of the business… unless you just measured it by grosses and not costs vs revenues... you know, the way you might expect Business Week to do.

Grover, like whoever is pushing this agenda to him and Finke and getting ink for it, is living in a past where people really thought a heavily verticalized studio would work. But the prove is completely clear… it does not.

Now, it would be completely reasonable for Time-Warner to look at their movie properties and to decide what business they most want to be in... or don't want to be in. But the idea that they don’t want to be in the genre business would fly in the face of the rest of the industry.

Essentially, Time-Warner faces the basic issue that Disney faces with The Weinsteins a few years ago. Miramax/Dimension had grown into a problem. The annual budget for the studio was too big, but not because of the genre elements at Dimension, but because Harvey was chasing Oscar each year with expensive art films. Disney offered The Weinsteins a deal with a $400 million a year budget (down from $700m), but it was rejected. And the separation was unstoppable from there.

Should New Line be free to make $250 million movies without corporate oversight? No.

And may I say, “Duh!”

You want to make the case that Lynne & Shaye are over it after 40 years and new blood needs to be brought in? Okay. Find a candidate. I may or may not agree, but it’s a conversation.

You want to bring in some operations of New Line into WB divisions? Makes perfect sense. With due respect to the good people who are about to lose their jobs in the fold-in, the model for all Home Entertainment being under one roof has worked rather well for Sony. Do it.

But marketing? Warners released 23 films last year. And if Grover actually knew anyone in WB marketing, aside from the studio’s corporate publicist, he would know that they were terribly strained just doing that, with three full marketing teams working their asses off. Adding another 10 films would be in-fucking-sane.

So what do you do? Fold in New Line and hire a fourth team? Uh…

And does Robinov oversee the New Line product like he does the WB product? Uh…

Let’s not even point out that Grover doesn’t bother to note that the new head of marketing at New Line has been in place for just 6 months. This doesn't mean he will make it... but it does mean that the company has already begin a transition. Let’s not even point out that the deal for The Hobbit, New Line’s version of Harry Potter, just got done and that if you took “that film” away from any studio, they would look much softer.

And has it occurred to anyone that New Line has its strongest line-up in a few years this year? The Gondry will be a commercial stiff, but a Will Ferrell comedy, Sex & The City, a Harold & Kumar sequel, a Rachel McAdams drama, and a star-studded He’s Just Not That Into You seems like a marketable group of films. Maybe they will all stiff. I don’t know. I haven’t seen the movies.

But in the end, either you are in the genre arm game or you are not… just like WB is either in the art arm game… or not. Half measures and folding marketing in are sure bets for failure. Even the mighty Fox Searchlight quietly failed in doing this with Fox Atomic… and they have the machine to market to teens like no one's business.

How can someone as long in the job as Grover be so fundamentally ignorant of how the industry works in 2008? I wish I knew. But he is yet another example of a last gasp from Old Media for relevance, playing it the old way, assuming they are too important (tee hee) for anyone to challenge them. But if you really want to be in the analysis business, do a little analysis… please! You work for Business Week... you're not supposed to be just another self-promoting, hyped-up blogger with an agenda.

PS - I completely forgot to note... studio stuff hasn't moved a corporate stock price in a decade. Time-Warner didn't get a stock market boost from Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter. So, moving NL into WB is going to get Wall Street's attention? Pul-eeeeze!

Posted by poland at 08:36 AM | Comments (8)

February 07, 2008

New Line/Old Line

Gossips with vendettas against Bob Shaye and who owe favors to Terry Semel aside, the situation at Time-Warner has gone public with the Jeff Bewkes' Wall Street call yesterday.

My current understanding of how the situation will change the movie situation for the company is that WIP is likely to be folded into Picturehouse for reasons of redundancy (with Bob Berney leading) and that Shaye & Lynne will stick around to run a thinner New Line which will move many of the operating segments, like Home Entertainment, fully under the WB divisions.

Head of Production Toby Emmerich is expected to be a casualty, taking the fall for allowing the Golden Compass budget to get so far out of control, as will be about a third of the current staff.

Ironically, the last time Shaye and Lynne attempted a major reduction of size in the New Line operation was after Ted Turner, then muscling things at Time-Warner. had forced the studio into bigger production choices, leading to films like Lost in Space. As they started down that road, a little film called Lord of the Rings came into the studio's life and turned everything upside down.

This time, the film that made things in clear need of a rethink was The Golden Compass, which has now grossed over $325 million worldwide and for which the case will still be strongly made to proceed with sequels. And there is The Hobbit in the wings, awaiting a Guillermo greenlight.

The more things change...

(Clarification - 9p Thurs - I am not saying that New Line or Time-Warner has made any decision about doing a sequel to Golden Compass. If there was a decision at this point, it would probably be not to. However, the Japanese market is still not open on the film and $25 million plus for that territory would not be shocking. But much more importantly, the live of the film on DVD is still an open issue. If there is a substantive boost in DVD from expectations based on the domestic gross, combined with a $350 million worldwide gross, it would not be shocking to see a sequel in the $100 million - $125 million budget range get the go ahead. This phenomenon is also why we are seeing Universal sequelizing films like Hellboy and The Hulk. There is an established audience, but the expectations came up short in theatrical domestic. So taking another shot, at a price, makes sense.

But again... no one at New Line or Time-Warner is saying that a sequel is now likely. )

Posted by poland at 02:44 PM | Comments (19)

BYOB - 2/7/8

Posted by poland at 01:45 PM | Comments (22)

Will They Promote An Apology On ET?

As the story about Heath Ledger's death from combined prescriptions and not illegal drugs, we know that the tabs will exploit the new story for another week. But will they ever apologize for the endless grotesque speculation?

At least one otherwise legitimate writer is still using phrases like "whitewash" to describe the situation, suggesting that there was intent to die in Ledger's actions. And maybe there was. (The argument also suggests that the ET tape was somehow truthful... which it clearly was not, at least as positioned... and should not have been or be shown.)

Did one or two or three doctors prescribe the six drugs? Who gave him what warnings? Does anyone prescribe Valium and Xanax to be taken at the same time? Did he get one drug on one coast, one on the other, one in Chicago, one from a friend, and so on? This is not without precedent.

Anyone who knows people who like to get prescriptions - one of the reasons I have never taken any prescription meds for more than 3 days in a row in my adult life, though some are, obviously, life saving for those who need them - knows that the effects of one drug can wear off or appear to wear down and the next drug is added while the first is not always subtracted.

We really don't know the answers. Ledger would hardly be the first celebrity to be mixing way too many types of pharmaceuticals. You know, when actors say they are going into rehab for prescription meds, it is actually true a lot of the time!!! (And a lot of the time, they have had problems with illegal drugs and drinking in the past as well... and not just being a shot in a video with someone snorting coke at a party.)

I agree, in the end, that if there was a suicide, it should not be played down. And if there was not, Ledger (and his loved ones) should not have the false accusation hung around their necks forever. Losing a loved one at such a young age is more than pain enough.

What I want to see is the same type size and space spent on explaining how wrong the insinuations of illegal drug use were. And what I don't want to see is endless new speculation blaming Michelle Williams for driving him to this end.

Human beings... not pinatas.

Posted by poland at 12:59 PM | Comments (24)

February 05, 2008

The Vanity Fair Curse?

APRIL 2000: "SPLENDOR IN THE GRASS" Penélope Cruz, Wes Bentley, Mena Suvari, Marley Shelton, Chris Klein, Selma Blair, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster, and Sarah Wynter.

Posted by poland at 07:59 PM | Comments (44)

Poli-Why

The most interesting thing about the Super Tuesday results so far is that on the Democratic side in 18 states, only 3 states are split by 10% of the vote or less.

This makes things a lot more comfortable for the network projectors... but what does it say about the voters?

The vote on the Republican side, where McCain has been all but anointed, has 9 states with wins by 10% or less.

Perspective on this will come in time... maybe before morning... but the divide is fascinating to me.

Posted by poland at 07:43 PM | Comments (13)

Milkshake Mania

Posted by poland at 01:26 PM | Comments (1)

BYOB - Super Tuesday

Posted by poland at 10:12 AM | Comments (23)

February 04, 2008

WGA Strike: The Questions

I started to write this as a response to a petulant comment on another entry, but the issue seemed worthy of its own space (even if people in here really don't comment on the strike for whatever reasons).

Figuring out months ago how the strike would play out was not a magic trick. I t was simple logic. The Deal was always going to go onto the table soon after the force majeur period was clear. The start of a strike pretty much assured what many of us thought would be a month, then six weeks, and what turned out to be 2 months and a couple of weeks to negotiate the details.

WGA was so rageful that AMPTP tried to punish them by doing The Deal via DGA and giving them credit instead of WGA. Shitty.

But this is now water under the bridge. It is time for the perspective questions to start being considered.

1. What would have happened had WGA not struck in Nov?

No one knows, except the AMPTP. Would they have dragged their feet until WGA did strike so they could do force majeur, bring in DGA for a deal, and position SAG with 2 setlements so there would be no SAG strike? Could be. It could have been exactly the same scenario delayed a few months. The question then would have been, "If a strike was going to be forced and if the deal was going to be the same in the end, when was the best strategic place for WGA to strike?"

2. What would have happened if WGA waited on SAG's strike date?

Some feel that AMPTP would have locked out the writers at some point. I don't. I think the goal has always been to do the deal "they" were willing to do and to have no more than one strike.

Would we have spent the summer in a strike, talking about the loss of the fall TV season and the threat to Summer 2009's movies?

3. How would the industry have responded to attempts to jam the 2008 fall TV season into the working period that is usually spent wrapping up Spring? Would films meant to shoot next summer or even late spring get aborted in anticipation of a SAG/WGA strike?

Would WGA support have meant much to SAG's leverage or would everyone all just been out of work at the same time, making the whole thing so much more dramatic?

4. Would a strategic offer to work through Feb 15, with the implicit threat to shut down The Oscars and pilot season and 2009 movies if a deal could not be struck in the 3.5 month period of negotiations as the WGA continued to work on good faith have been effective?

I expect the most extreme WGAers to be unhappy with the deal they are offered. How can it not feel like a slap in the face after all that rhetoric? It's not personal... it's math. But all politics are local and it's very personal when you feel you have skin in the game. I get that. I just won't linger in it... which has some people thinking I am anti-WGA in all this. I can only continue to point to what I have written and say, obviously, I am not. I am also not a flame-throwing, unthinking pawn... or, in respect to striking writers, I have no need to lead with my chin as a negotiating tactic. (I would put all the "not so fast" stuff and pickets this week in that category. If anyone really thinks the Negotiating Committee is going to give up points because they think member resolve is slipping, they are deluded. As things go today, negotiating for another month is no worse than settling today if the deal isn't right. The NC has proven their mettle already... perhaps too much so.)

Of course, no one knows what these deals with the three major guilds will mean to the bottom line and won't for years. Will reruns be relegated to the web? Will DVD sales of TV shows remain strong? Will pay-tv networks overwhelm both delivery ideas?

Personally, I don't think these union deals will mean anything to how the studios choose to move forward... just lines on a spread sheet. The money involved is much bigger than residuals for all unions combined. Studios will go where they see the money... period.

This contract may seem great or misbegotten by the end of its run. And that is pretty much overly generous or unfair to the current negotiators as well. The great step forward for the Hollywood guilds would be ongoing negotiations over new technology that allows for annual steps that work for both sides. It is not how it’s been done in the past… but over the next two decades, it would be the way to do it… as in a few of the sports leagues. There is enough to go around. As in the end of all negotiations, there should be a little pain on both sides in the end… just a little… and a sense of comforted resolve as well.

Onward.

Posted by poland at 01:39 PM | Comments (35)

February 03, 2008

Microsoft/Yahoo vs Google

How in God's name can Google claim that Microsoft buying Yahoo! is dangerous after: 1) Google emerged to overtake Yahoo! from nowhere, 2) Google bought YouTube, thus owning the #1 and #1 video free download and delivery systems on the web, 3) Microsoft has failed, over and over, to create a mighty web presence, which is why they are now desperate enough to buy Yahoo!, and 4) This would still leave Microsoft well short of the media integration that, say, NewsCorp has... as we watch MySpace being hocked on the SuperBowl along with Fox TV and movie and even programs they produce for other nets?

The internet and the software business are nearly opposite in their competitive dynamics. The internet is completely open to newcomers... and when a better mousetrap comes to the web, it will surpass Google and Yahoo! and MySpace, etc. The software business is all about compatibility, which Microsoft manipulated relentlessly and abusively. But time after time, the public reminds wannabes that just because they have a marketing advantage, people will use the web opportunities that best serve their needs and not - at least as things have evolved - just use what's in front of them.

Apple outmaneuvered Sony in portable music. The PC beat the Mac, yet IBM still fell. Friendster begat MySpace which begat Facebook and who knows what is going to be begat next.

Microsoft has been evil. But if anything is going to bring that behemoth down, aside from a lot of time, it's trying to treat the web like it's treated the software world. If they try, they will lose it all. And if they don't, they will be a serious competitor to Google.

Google should be nervous... and then see what happens. If it's good, there's no stopping it. And if it's bad, there's no stopping it.

Posted by poland at 11:37 PM | Comments (6)

The End Of The Strike

The stuff as the WGA strike comes to an end is almost as irritatingly dumb as the stuff through much of the strike itself.

First, beware the micro-obsessives. This strike effectively ended the day the DGA got a better deal on many points than WGA was asking for and some reasonable numbers on other areas that WGA had been fighting hard over. I'm not saying DGA deserves to steal WGA thunder. But had the same deal been put on the WGA table directly, there strike would have ended that week or had AMPTP made this offer in October, there would not have been a strike.

Anyone who wasn't paranoid or selling an agenda knew this back on January 16.

Second, the idea that there will be a freeze on writers because of this strike is also nuts. Citing 1988 is particularly stupid, as the massive deals that are now the norm for TV showrunners started in the shadow of that strike. In fact, DreamWorks would likely have never needed a Paramount bail-out had they not lost hundreds of millions in television showrunner deals in the early-mid 90s, when there was no way to avoid not only big back ends, but massive housekeeping deals... tens of millions in cash... really.

The positive story that no one seems to be up to writing yet is that the same DVD phenomenon that has broken down the notion of seasons is likely to lead to a lot of original mainstream programming leaking past May sweeps and into June and even July. If the talent deals don't get in the way, don't be surprised to see more than a few hit primetime shows up and shooting by the end of February/early March, airing by the end of March, and going 4 or 6 or 8 shows into June or July, which has not been done much.

There is no question that "pilot season" will be a frickin' mess. But with established shows able to earn so much for each episode that heads to DVD, there is no reason to shorten things unless forced. Also, there is still some chance of at least a brief SAG work stoppage, so the urge to fill the coffers as much as possible with new product will be there.

This could also be the first major impact on the film side, as tv talent that slots in a summer movie might be unavailable.

Finally, my eyes are rolling at the signing of more "independent" companies to deals that will be void before the month ends and the notion that picketing is needed this next week.

Come on. It's over. If this strike taught us anything, it's that the only real value in picketing these days is to keep the union members active and not brooding in their homes. None of the 'we''ll show them" stuff made the tiniest dent in this labor action. In the end, the power of WGA is to not write... that is what hurts studios. And public opinion means diddly. Even the SAG Awards were gaudily uninterested in the strike, unless you were looking for those few precious moments when the hat was tipped.

With due respect, no one ever wanted to shut down the union... AMPTP was no more evil or insane than normal... studios will, sadly, end up in the black ink for this 110 day (or so) strike... and things went the way they did because it made sense, even if it was unfair - and even if the deal still kinda sucks for writers in all the ways the last deals have.

Time for everyone to start cooling down, getting some perspective, and figuring out whether SAG can muster the energy to push for more than the other got (in principle). And hopefully, we will notice that the micro-analysis of every noise and foot shuffling around the negotiating table did nothing to move things forward, even if it gave many the opportunity to rabble rouse, flex heroic, and stew in the juice of endless paranoia.

Now... let's figure out a way to make arbitration better!

Posted by poland at 10:59 PM | Comments (7)

Supah

Ya gotta love Moe Greene as Jack Woltz in the Audi/Godfather ad...

4:05 - The WGA strike is most apparent at the Super Bowl in the Fox TV promotions, focused on shows that really don't need the help, namely House, Terminator, and American Idol.

4:15 - Iron Man spot... remarkably unimpressive. Comic book movies pass $130 million on character, not CG. This spot didn't seem to get that. This movie will open to no less than $30m in that slot. But they better have more in the tank than that if they plan on surviving Speed Racer, much less Indy 4's opening.

5:41 - The weak run of movie spots continues, along with all the spots, really. A defensive Super Bowl and a defensive set of commercials.

5:44 - Clever to bring in Hanks and Allen to push Wall-E while they were recording for TS3. Very rare version of name-checking.

10:30 - In the end, I thought the best spot of the day - maybe shared with the e-Trade baby - was Bud Light's Semi-Pro ad, which was a pleasure after a lame run of Bud Light ads and an only okay Semi-Pro ad from New Line. Ferrell has done some version of this spot, improvising absurdities in context, for every comedy he's made in the last couple of years. Some have aired... others not. This was odd, in that it was for a beer, yet, fit naturally. Very Funny or Die.

Besides my pleasure at my Dolphins not losing its place as the only undefeated team in NFL history, this was the best game since St Louis vs Tennessee, with the tackle at the one-year-line to save the game on its last play. Great defensive struggle in the first 3 quarters and a tough offensive show in the fourth. Wow. And who doesn't love an upset, other than the team and fans that were upset? Even the bookies had to enjoy it, as the spread was so wide, they had nothing much at stake after it was clear that the Pats wouldn't cover.

Still... overall, not much of a platform for the film business this year. Iron Man has been revving its engine for a while. There was nothing new on Speed Racer, Indiana Jones or the new Hulk, the Love Guru, Hellboy 2, The Dark Knight, Hancock, Pineapple Express, or The Mummy 3... which are (with the exception of HB2) more elusive than the summer stuff that got platformed.

Bur man... what a game!

(mostly via iPhone)

Posted by poland at 03:41 PM | Comments (74)

February 02, 2008

Friday Estimates by Klady - 2/1

Posted by poland at 08:27 AM | Comments (74)

BYOB - Weekend 2/1 - Apolitical

Here's some more space for those who wish to delve into matters without governmental import, as the last entry seemed to become all that and a bag of Barack...

Posted by poland at 08:21 AM | Comments (5)

February 01, 2008

BYOB - Weekend 2/1 - Political

Hannah will earn Montana... yawn.

There must be something worth talking about, but I don't see it.

I was up late watching the rerun of the Democratic debate last night... and suddenly, as reflected in today's Hot Button (I seem to be writing a monthly now), I got the stirrings of the first great election cycle of my adult lifetime. The idea of McCain, a psuedo-centrist Republican representing the military that learned from Vietnam and old white men versus Barack Obama, the first black candidate who is a true charismatic and doesn't have to grin from ear-to-ear while trying to convey warmth... with so few, but such strong distinctions between the side... wow... that would be a race.

But that's not about movies, is it?

Posted by poland at 09:37 AM | Comments (44)