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February 03, 2008

Supah

Ya gotta love Moe Greene as Jack Woltz in the Audi/Godfather ad...

4:05 - The WGA strike is most apparent at the Super Bowl in the Fox TV promotions, focused on shows that really don't need the help, namely House, Terminator, and American Idol.

4:15 - Iron Man spot... remarkably unimpressive. Comic book movies pass $130 million on character, not CG. This spot didn't seem to get that. This movie will open to no less than $30m in that slot. But they better have more in the tank than that if they plan on surviving Speed Racer, much less Indy 4's opening.

5:41 - The weak run of movie spots continues, along with all the spots, really. A defensive Super Bowl and a defensive set of commercials.

5:44 - Clever to bring in Hanks and Allen to push Wall-E while they were recording for TS3. Very rare version of name-checking.

10:30 - In the end, I thought the best spot of the day - maybe shared with the e-Trade baby - was Bud Light's Semi-Pro ad, which was a pleasure after a lame run of Bud Light ads and an only okay Semi-Pro ad from New Line. Ferrell has done some version of this spot, improvising absurdities in context, for every comedy he's made in the last couple of years. Some have aired... others not. This was odd, in that it was for a beer, yet, fit naturally. Very Funny or Die.

Besides my pleasure at my Dolphins not losing its place as the only undefeated team in NFL history, this was the best game since St Louis vs Tennessee, with the tackle at the one-year-line to save the game on its last play. Great defensive struggle in the first 3 quarters and a tough offensive show in the fourth. Wow. And who doesn't love an upset, other than the team and fans that were upset? Even the bookies had to enjoy it, as the spread was so wide, they had nothing much at stake after it was clear that the Pats wouldn't cover.

Still... overall, not much of a platform for the film business this year. Iron Man has been revving its engine for a while. There was nothing new on Speed Racer, Indiana Jones or the new Hulk, the Love Guru, Hellboy 2, The Dark Knight, Hancock, Pineapple Express, or The Mummy 3... which are (with the exception of HB2) more elusive than the summer stuff that got platformed.

Bur man... what a game!

(mostly via iPhone)

Posted by poland at February 3, 2008 03:41 PM

Comments

I don't know what's more random -- the fact that you're analyzing the commercials, or that you're doing it with an iPhone...

Posted by: mutinyco [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 04:44 PM

As I've asked on my own blog: Might the unimpressive Iron Man spot ignite memories of the unfortunate Hulk Super Bowl spot?

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 04:59 PM

I thought the Iron Man spot was really cool. I already rewatched it on the net. Is there something wrong with me?

Posted by: MDOC [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 05:29 PM

IRON MAN
from the director of Zathura

Posted by: Don Murphy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 05:41 PM

Wall*E = win.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 05:45 PM

I don't understand the "Zathura" dis: its feeble box-office performance was enough of a slap in Jon Favreau's face.
But since you brought it up, I've always thought that "Z" was one of the more underrated children's fantasies of recent years. And as far as ersatz Spielberg goes, I liked it better than any of Chris Columbus' Lean Spielberg Cuisine entrees. (Ditto Favreau's terrific "Elf.")
And while I'm on the subject of Spielberg, am I the only one in MCN Land who's actually looking forward to "Iron Man" (and, yes, "Speed Racer") more than "Indy 4"? Of course, I happen to think that Ang Lee's "Hulk" was pretty bitchin', too. Frankly, Universal's five-years-later attempt at a "Hulk" re-do strikes me as a tad pathetic, Ed Norton notwithstanding.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 06:12 PM

No one cares about the actual game?

Not surprisingly, as starting a thread about sports on the Hot Blog is kinda like starting a thread about Jay-Z on a Dittohead Web site.

Anyway, that shit with the PANDAS WITH THE THICK ASIAN ACCENTS? Think any controversy will come of that? Who thought that shit was a good idea?

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 06:36 PM

It's annoying to me that so many of the studios went for 15 or 30 second spots which don't really give you any idea what the movie is about. Because of this, I thought that the Narnia: Prince Caspian one worked the best, followed by Wanted, simply because they showed a lot of quick cut cool action that can get people excited about the movies without really knowing much about them. I'm pretty sure Caspian will be one of the bigger movies of the summer, $250 - 300 million for sure. I think Wanted was helped the most by the Super Bowl, followed by Jumper.

Posted by: EDouglas [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 06:58 PM

EDouglas: I thought the Jumper spot actually made the central conflict (or at least the motive for Sam Jackson's character) a bit clearer than it has seemed in the coming attractions trailers.

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 07:10 PM

Everything seems sweeter after a Patriots loss.

God does exist, and He is good.

Posted by: Josh Massey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 07:15 PM

Oh my sweet lord, the Giants just won the freaking Super Bowl!!!

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 07:16 PM

As a lifelong Dolphins fan and a transplanted New Yorker who always had a soft spot for the G-Men....big smile, baby. And Belichik proves he is the most classless douche in pro football.

On topic: I thought iron man looked fun.

Gotta love Strahan.

Posted by: CleanSteve [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 07:22 PM

I think kind of goes without saying, but Super Bowl spots rarely focus on character and that is rarely a measure of their success.

Who can forget the infamous Gladiator spot that interspersed scenes of Russel Crowe battling with actual football footage - that movie won the Best Picture Oscar.

That said, I found the Iron Man spot a little disappointing, weaker than the trailer. The best spot for a movie was probably Jumper.

I think the Wanted spot was solid, but is Universal really kidding themselves on this one? Is any one buying McAvoy as a comic book hero? Sure looks like Angelina Jolie could kick his ass. The film is actually sandwiched between two other Universal comic book movies just two weeks apart on each side - Hulk and Hellboy. It's coming out just a week before Hancock (Sony needs to get ahead of the curve on marketing that one and should have had a spot) and just three weeks before Dark Knight.

Yes, I know that all comic book movies cannot be lumped together and Hancock certainly seems to be taking a different direction from the genre, but.....this is pure saturation and kind of reminds me of back in summer 2006 when three CGI animated films opened with four weeks and completley cannabilized each other.

I think Universal is really kidding themselves on this one and throwing money away. And besides, they are still going to have a real challenge re-branding Hulk - I am getting the sense they are very nervous on how to market it.

Posted by: Geoff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 07:45 PM

Quote from the NYT 5th Down Blog: "To heck with the Coen brothers. This is your best picture of the year."

Posted by: mutinyco [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:06 PM

The NFL finally succeeded at cheating the Pats. Good on you Roger. Good on you. However, Heat, you once again do not have a clue as to what anyone outside of your demographic wants in a comic book movie. Seriously it's so fucking sad at how out of touch you are when it comes to anything supposedly GEEK, but you at least get the Oscar season in your own way. Good on you for that skill. Nevertheless the Iron Man spot was solid.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:10 PM

Most of the spots were shit. Tying a car starter to your nipples? WTF? Racist pandas? Charles Barkley? People dancing to dance songs from the 90s... how very creative.

That Wall-E spot sure didnt sound like Hanks to me.

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:40 PM

Geoff: That's kind of the point of Wanted. McAvoy's character is a nerdy cubicle worker at the beginning of the movie before he begins his transformation once he learns his true heritage.

And, yeah, it's based on a comic book, but it really shares nothing in common with Hulk or Hellboy. "Comic book" isn't a genre--it's a medium.

Posted by: gradystiles [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:42 PM

"The NFL finally succeeded at cheating the Pats."

Please elaborate.

Posted by: Josh Massey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:54 PM

Looks like it was Eli who drank the milkshake.

Posted by: Bart Smith [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 08:57 PM

Yeah, that Panda spot was awful, but that guy with the 100 free sales leads is an idiot. He's all over the radio around here. His other spot was basically Indian, and I think that's his heritage. Obviously, he's rolling in bucks, but I don't know how that's possible by flogging sales leads.

Posted by: Mr. Muckle [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 09:01 PM

What was with the theme of pain and injury in almost all the Bowl ads? Seemed weird that almost all of them featured someone getting injured....odd.

And I couldn't be happier the Pats lost. I truly hate that team and not because they're really good and I'm jealous. I'm a NY Jets fan and I'm just sick of them.

Posted by: PetalumaFilms [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 09:09 PM

Checking out the Apple Trailer site to check out the new Iron Man trailer-looks like Trailer Park Boys: The Movie finally hits the U.S.
Now there's true Canadian culture.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 09:28 PM

"What was with the theme of pain and injury in almost all the Bowl ads? Seemed weird that almost all of them featured someone getting injured....odd."

This is a trend that's been noticed over the past few years. I dislike it.

I really enjoyed the Iron Man spot. I had no interest in the movie before, and now I do.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 09:42 PM

Wall*E was by far the knock down drag out hit of the commercials for us, nearly got as big a reception as the Giant's last TD. and I was the only one in the room of a dozen or so that had any clue what the movie was. I think Wall*E and Hancock are the top two grossing films of 2008, and Wall*E is the first film I'm penciling in as a possible Best Picture contender.

I thought the Iron Man ad displayed the appropriate level of humor for a short superbowl spot. "Yeah I can fly" You Don't Mess with the Zohan looks like it could be a return to Happy Gilmore form for Sandler.

of actual commercials the favorite was Will Farrell's budlight 'outtakes' Bud Light: Suck on one. Shaq as a jockey--no idea what it was for, but it was funny) and the ETrade webcasting baby (which prompted my roomate to say 'you know ETrade really is a good idea to use to invest' oy. )

Posted by: movielocke [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 09:44 PM

What you don't ever get, IO, is that The Geek Audience doesn't mean shit to movies like Iron Man. They can't make enough on The Geek Audience to make their money back.

The ad was not for The Geek Audience. It was, 100%, for the non-geek audience. That is where Paramount has a challenge. That is where Paramount has to go to get more than the Daredevil/Ghost Rider $125m. And they ain't looking for $125m in that slot. No one has been in over a decade.

AND - Yeah... let's hear about how The Pats got cheated. I do think that the refs were pleased to call those false start penalties against them after BB threw that lame ass 12 men on the field flag and embarrassed them. Thank God the game didn't turn on that ugliness.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 10:23 PM

!!Bitter Pats fan post alert!!

DP, you should stick to movies. BB absolutely should have thrown that flag. That wasn't trying to embarrass the refs. It's easy for a penalty like that to not get seen and flagged. But, when you need 3 yards and a penalty will get you 5 and the first down, you have to throw out the challenge flag.

After complimenting Noah (apparently a Giants fan) on his Woody piece, I would now like to rescind my compliment... :-) 'Grats to the Giants fans and Patriots haters. Eli to Tyree will go down as one of the top 5 plays in SB history.

Posted by: ManWithNoName [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 10:32 PM

Bookies apparently took a bath on this one. 62% of bets were on the Giants, I read. I don't know anything about the business, but I'm guessing that means they'll be paying out a lot more than they took in.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 10:48 PM

If it's any consolation, ManWithNoName, I'm also a fanatical Knicks (and Mets) fan. So, considering you've probably got the Red Sox and Celtics to win championships for the next few years, I think I've earned this one sweet moment!

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 10:48 PM

The Iron Man trailer was terrible. Wanted looks horrible. Leatherheads seems interesting, I can't believe that I want to see Jumper. I'm kind of disappointed we didn't get an Indy 4 trailer. That's my pick to win the summer.

Posted by: Monco [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 11:09 PM

No Name - You should stick with reality (and keep in mind that you have no idea how much I know about this sport).

Have you ever seen ANYONE throw that flag for that penalty before?

And I don't really care whether BB should have thrown the flag or not... my point it, the refs suddenly started calling penalties that could be called on many plays, all against New England. There wasn't a call that was close that didn't go NY's way after that. Do I think it was payback? Yes. Fair? Of course not. How people behave? Of course.

In the end, it all worked out and The Giants deserved the win. But for about a quarter, I felt there was a definite reverb, starting with a false start call that could have easily been no-called. I wasn't expecting that... but it happened. Go to enough live games in any sport and you will see it happen more often than seems reasonable.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 11:34 PM

After the WALL-E trailer, my friend commented "looks like they cut that one for the retarded people." I agreed...really dislike the campaign Pixar has run for this one. The movie deserves better.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2008 11:40 PM

So Wall-E is a remake of Short Circuit, right?

I agree that the ads in general were somewhat uninspiring - only a couple rose to the standard of what I expect from a Super Bowl ad, which to say, a simple, smart concept executed precisely. I mean, what was up with those CGI lizards dancing to "Thriller"? What product was that for again?

And it may have been Tim Allen, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't Tom Hanks.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 12:14 AM

Cut for retarded people? Come on. They used Woody (non Hanks which I found odd) and Buzz to sell a movie, that has yet to have any promotional materials encapsulate what it's all about. If they would have busted out Fred Willard. Motherfuckers would have been confused.

That aside, Heat, you act as if I have not been reading your ass for damn near 10 years (I even remember freakin Rough Cut for Peter Criss' sake). Let me explain to you a little something you love to ignore about geeks: THEY ARE FREAKIN WORDY! They tell their friends, their co-workers, and anyone else about films coming out that geek them out. I could have sworn that word of mouth thing is important?

Nevertheless, that ad was for the geek audience, in order to get them excited enough to TELL EVERYONE ELSE. Everyone else also saw it. So now their geek friends can discuss Iron Monger with them. One last thing on Tony Stark... do not even bring up 125. If you are thinking Van Helsing with this thing. Share with a brother why you are feeling the tinglings of low grosses for Iron-Man.

On to football... THE REFS CHANGED THE COURSE OF THE GAME. This happened to Seahawks, and do you think they have forgotten what happened during XL? The refs pretty much gave this game to the Giants. You could state the Giants better team or you could be realistic. You could be realistic and state that the Giants were only better because the Pats had the refs against them. The Colts almost beat the Pats this way. This also happened in the first Giants game. The league really needs to look at it's officiating in big games, or there will be more people like me. Frustrated at the biggest game of the year coming down to non-calls and bad calls, then the acutal play on the field.

Oh yeah, your 73 Dolphins, would be beaten by almost every other team in the history of the National Football League. It is a joke that these baffoons hold a record due to a year with some of the worst offensive production in the NFL's history. They are not a great team. They are not even a good team. They were simply good enough in a bad year to go 17-0. Too bad there's an 18-1 team out there with a #1 draft pick, that finds itself in a very similar place to those 73 Dolphins.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 12:26 AM

Jeff; let's just state it's a movie about purpose, set in the future, and featuring some live action moments. Much like Ratatouille at this same point last year, what the movie is really about remains in the shadows like a poorly lit monster attacking New York.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 12:32 AM

Marketing to retarded people is what Superbowl ads are all about. Then again, if that is the standard you feel the Wall-E campaign has been on, then you must feel the entire Apple way of advertising is for retarded people as well.

Pixar isn't shying away from their Steve Jobs ties on this one, complete with less is more approach.

Wall-E is going to be the biggest domestic film of the year, no question. I've been certain as such since last Summer.

Posted by: Tofu [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 01:40 AM

As the media did with the Giants...you misscalculated, you missjudged , you get it wrong.

Iron man is going to trash Speed Racer at the Box office. And a 30 million opening? 50+ . Mark my words.

And yeah, i can fly ( there's more character on this line that in all the ominous voices over in the Dark Knight Trailer, even when in the end it would probably be a best movie).

Posted by: tyler666 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 05:29 AM

Bad calls or not; you can't deny that play towards the end where Eli broke the tackle to complete the pass, which gave them the emotional encouragement to keep going and get the eventual TD.

That was brilliant.

Posted by: THX5334 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 07:36 AM

The refs lost the game for the Patriots? BB is not the only sore loser. That man is a classless piece of crap. I sure did love watching them lose.

Posted by: Stella's Boy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 07:40 AM

typer 666 is a FUNNY MONKEY if I am not MISStaken!

IRON MAN
From the director of ZATHURA

Posted by: Don Murphy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 07:58 AM

Don - do you have something coming out that will be competing with Wall-E, or you envious of the eventual mega-success of the film, or do you just have something against Favreau?

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 08:50 AM

I have nothing coming out against Wall -E (what is the point of that question?) the film will not be a mega success and I have never met Favreau.

IRON MAN
from the director of Zathura

Posted by: Don Murphy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 09:14 AM

DP:

Can't remember if it was this season, but I definitely saw a challenge flag thrown on an uncalled penalty. It might have been the Colts. I'm 95% sure it was a 12 men on the field penalty too.

Posted by: ManWithNoName [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 09:47 AM

on the subject of football.

To call that game unfair in any way shows a complete lack of knowledge for the game. The Refs let them play, there were few penalties, and the ones they did call were fairly blatant.

The pass interference call in the end zone.
12 Men on the Field for the Giants.

There was no bias here. Just a good game.

Movielocke, be careful. Declaring Wall-E gets a best pic nomination without having seen it might make you the Ian Sinclair of 2008.

Posted by: anghus [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 10:33 AM

good point anghus, don't want to be him. But I didn't intend to call it as a nominee. to clarify, WallE looks like the only movie between now and September that is a contender for a BP nomination next year. In the same manner I'm sure that Ratatouille and Finding Nemo were in the running (meaning they never really seriously were, but people liked to speculate hopefully, which they will do with Wall E, myself included).

I don't see a problem with Favreau having directed Zathura. it was a well made film, entertaining for children, with a lot of practical and digital effects mixed in. A very good stepping stone to a bigger project. And it's better than Jumanji, it just didn't have any star power to drive it to success.

Posted by: movielocke [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 11:36 AM

Well, mr Murphy, you can laugh about my english ( ok, miscalculated and misjudged, i get it)but i would like to see you speaking in spanish ... but no hard feelings...

Then again...from the director of Zathura...what about...from the Producer of The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen?

Check

And i found pretty sad that after last summer almost everybody here, Poland included, were saying that Transformers would do 100-150 tops, you are playing the same game.

By the way i said that Transformers would do 300 millions easy, and i say that Iron Man would do more than 200.

Posted by: tyler666 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 11:49 AM

On the game, I thought the refs did a good job letting them play (with a few minor things that I don't think affected the outcome), except making a stink about the final second. The Pat's coach came out and congratulated the Giant's coach - can't we call that a concession and get on with it and not waste ten minutes trying to get everyone off the field so Eli can kneel down? Congrats to the Giants for playing excellent defense. It's just a shame that the way the voting goes no defensive player will ever be allowed to win Super Bowl MVP anymore, as just about anyone off the defensive line deserved it more than Eli.

IronMan was a second tier hero in the comics, and he looks like a second tier movie hero (a la Fantastic Four). But it was still one of the few movie ads that made me more likely to see the movie (Prince Caspian being the other).

Wall*E looks like another of the ho-hum Pixar movies (better than cars but worse than Monster's Inc). It's starting to get to the point where unless it's a Brad Bird, I'm content to wait until it shows up at Blockbuster.

And there was no way that was Tom Hanks as Woody.

Posted by: Me [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 11:50 AM

Tyler666 - I must say that LOXG quip you made was perfect.

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 12:27 PM

Me, there is no such thing as a ho-hum Pixar movie. Even the lesser ones (Bug's Life, Cars) are funny, narratively sturdy and great to look out. As for Iron Man, sorry but i'm not buying John Favreau as a blockbuster director. He just doesn't show any hint of visual pizzazz, which is why Iron Man won't break out of the $150 million second-tier-superhero ghetto. Say what you will about Michael Bay, Roland Emmerich et al, but they know how to put on the big show. Favreau as a writer and actor? Fine. But not as a Summer tentpole helmer. did you see Zathura? On a purely visual level, that looked like an early Seventies Disney movie with Kurt Russell in the lead.

Posted by: Dr Wally [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 12:52 PM

"What was with the theme of pain and injury in almost all the Bowl ads? Seemed weird that almost all of them featured someone getting injured....odd."

This has ben going on for a few years now. 80 percent of ads seem to be people getting violently hurt. Most advertisers have total contempt for their consumers. This is how they view people, as meat to be hurt tortured humiliated -- and then much of Jackass America yuks it up over their beer and doritos. Perfect fodder for a counry that elected Bush twice. He of the cruel smirk.

Oh, and what game? There was a game? I was having sex.

Posted by: christian [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 01:03 PM

Tyler666... you may end up being right. You may not.

Speed Racer is likely to outlast Iron Man because it will be likely be the first big family movie of the season, which has always been a summer advantage.

There have been five $50 million openings in that slot in history. Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3, X2, Mummy 2, and Van Helsing. Iron Man could match Van Helsing, but the film had the combo of Stephen "Mummy" Summers and Hugh "Wolverine" Jackman - who had opened that slot huge the year before and 2 years before that - going in, plus the notion of a revived idea of the classic Universal horror characters.

Iron Man was one of my 3 favorite comics growing up, but it's still not on the Spidey or Batman level for non-comics people. It could do $50 million, yeah... that was what I started to write before, but there is a real chance that it won't do that well. And as you know, I get this stuff thrown back in my face once I am on record. Ghost Rider did $45 million in February, so Iron Man beating that would not be a shocker.

I will be happy to wager any amount, however, that worldwide, Speed Racer does significantly more than Iron Man. Assuming that it does play for young(er) audiences, it has nothing but Caspian in its way until Wall-E at the end of June.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 01:20 PM

And that, ladies and gentlemen , is how you argue an opinion. Well done David. I think you have some valid points here, and maybe your predictions are more acuratte than mine ( but i bet you a nickel that Iron Man outgross Speed Racer worldwide).
But the point that almost anybody forgets is that Iron Man is the FIRST big movie of the year, and people are already hungry for something BIG. And this year, no big size appetizer like 300... so we will see :)

And finally...there's something in Speed Racer that makes me think that something's utterly wrong, but i can't explain what it is.

I'm not extremely excited but any of those movies ( i have to recognize that i learned to read with Iron Man Comics and that he's probably one of my favorite heroes, but i lost all hopes of a good adaptation back in 89) so it doesn't mind if im right or wrong, because the only thing i really care this summer is that Indy kick ass.

Posted by: tyler666 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 01:39 PM

I have a hard time seeing Speed Racer as really appealing to a mainstream family audience in the same way that Prince Caspian will - it seems to be too self-consciously mimicking the style of the cartoons, and it doesn't strike me as a property that today's kids are that familiar with. Of course, a Cartoon Network marathon or three could turn that around.

Zathura has a weak script, and obviously Favreau's no Spielberg or Bay, but it worked as a fun adventure movie for me.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 02:10 PM

"I will be happy to wager any amount, however, that worldwide, Speed Racer does significantly more than Iron Man. Assuming that it does play for young(er) audiences, it has nothing but Caspian in its way until Wall-E at the end of June."

Ummmm..............apart from a certain Dr. Jones?

Posted by: Dr Wally [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 02:21 PM

OK, I have to ask this: Is Speed Racer some kind of very age-specific cult thing? I'm 55, and I never watched the cartoons. My son is 21, and he's never freakin' heard of the cartoons. I mean, really, I think Alvin and the Chipmunks had tons more cross-generational appeal/potential.

Of course, the above statement will look pretty dang silly if Speed Racer grosses $300 million domestic. But still...

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 02:54 PM

Holy Pinche Cabron Tyler666. Como estas cabeza de mierda?

They don't usually sell movies saying "From the Producer of" but I guess if they meant "From the Producer of a fantasy film that grossed more than $200m worldwide" they could cite LOEG as a masterful hit.

That said, I am surprised no one smacked you down on your complete bullshit. I never predicted a small hit for TRANSFORMERS. I said it would be #1 for the year and was off by only one or two places.

English isn't your problem. Intelligence is.

----------------
IRON MAN
from the director of ZATHURA

Posted by: Don Murphy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 03:35 PM

i am a lifelong pats fan. very sad today.

but i can say with great conviction that it was not the refs that made the pats lose. the o-line had one of its worst outings. matt light couldn't contain his side. there were no passes to the hot read when the blitzes came in.

the giants played a good game. it is very unfair to take that away from them (which is what blaming the refs would be doing). congrats to the giants organization and their fans. they deserved to win that game.

Posted by: hendhogan [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 03:37 PM

Don, I think you mean

TRANSFORMERS
from Executive Producer Steven Spielberg

I know this is asking for trouble, but why are you going after Favreau if you've never met him?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 04:09 PM

Favreau is currently fatter than Murphy and he's jealous.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 04:32 PM

Actually, Favreau lost all that weight. I don't know how he did it, but on the last ever episode of Dinner For Five, he looked slimmer than he did on Swingers.

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 04:55 PM

"OK, I have to ask this: Is Speed Racer some kind of very age-specific cult thing?"

Joe, I remember watching Speed Racer in the early 1980s, when I was what nowadays would be called a tween. It was shown daily on one of the local UHF stations. (Remember UHF stations?) Apparently it also became popular in the late 1990s when shown on Cartoon Network, but I missed that renascence.

The early to mid-80s is when another Japanese animation was huge in the States. I speak, of course, of none other than "Voltron: Defender of the Universe." I'm holding out for a movie of that, which I hope the W bros. don't come within 1000 miles of.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 05:06 PM

Actually, I'm waiting for Supercar: The Movie.

Uh, Don....?

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 05:29 PM

Jeepers Don, the man does know how to time a scene and how to direct Wil Ferrel.
Zathura is a wonderful kids movie-the practical work WAY outshines a lot of the CGI crap in Jumanji. I also didn't have any conservation of mass/momentum issues, unlike some parts of Transformers.
Good job on Shoot-Em-Up, Don. Paying for real songs made a big difference-great cast too.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 06:56 PM

As for Speed Racer, it looks like some weird train wreck. I'm thinking 35 million Judge Dredd weird.
Iron Man, probably more than Fantastic Four. Think Xmen adjusted for inflation, about 180 million.
Hancock, think MIB 250 million.

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 07:04 PM

I think Iron Man is going to going to open huge and maybe eke over $200 million, just have a feeling. Sorry, but Warners will be happy if Speed Racer breaks $100 million.

Since we are in this speculation mode, why not picks for the biggest films of the summer? Here are mine:

#1 Indiana Jones 4 $325 million
#2 Wall-E $290 mil (Could be higher, but not sure if the female appeal is really there)
#3 Prince Caspian $285 m (Would be much higher if it didn't have the Indy buzzsaw the next week)
#4 Dark Knight $255 m (Ledger curiosity bumps this up a bit and the marketing campaign has been aggressive)
#5 Hancock $220 m (this is a pure reach just based on Smith, but I could easily see it underperforming to Wild West levels if it's actually not funny)
#6 The Mummy 2 $210 m (not getting any buzz, but Universal is going to get this to dominate August)
#7 Iron Man $200 m
#8 The Love Guru $160 m (no footage, yet, but Mike Myers has been holding off for five years for a reason)
#9 Sex & the City $145 m(with Forgetting Sarah Marshall blinking, this is going to open huge with the ladies)
#10 Mama Mia $130 m (Universal is looking for Hairspray numbers, but I can see this actually being bigger due to a bigger brand name)

Really, once you get beyond #6, it is a true muddle of star-driven comedies and comic book actioners that are probably going to cannabalize each other - Sandler, Carell, Ferrell, Speed Racer, Hellboy, Hulk - I can see them most of them squeaking over $100 million, but still technically underperforming.

Posted by: Geoff [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2008 09:31 PM

1 Hancock - 350 (it's Will Smith, it's an action movie, it's a comedy, it's July 4th)

2 Wall E - 320

3 Indiana Jones - 290 (I think a lot of people will be leary of seeing it right away but it will have great legs, just not an insane opening weekend)

4 Chronicles of Narnia - 290 - other than WallE, the big family film of the year

5 The Dark Knight - 250 - will make more because people who didn't see Begins in theatre caught it on video and found out how good the 'new' Batman is.

After that it's a crap shoot. But I can't really imagine Speed Racer being a family film. Will it be rated PG or G? if so it could possibly go that way. I thought the Wachowski attachment instantly meant a certain dark edge and 'maturation' of the material was going to happen, at least PG13, a more tongue in cheek type of film, a sort of Down with Love send up of genre is what it tonally looks like.

Posted by: movielocke [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 01:21 AM

Ok, there we go again, Mr Murphy.

First, you're "trying" to talk in mexican, not spanish.

Second, i never insulted you, and you're calling me fucker and shithead, wow, very mature, dude.

Third, i was saying that almost everybody, except you, was saying that Transformers wouldn't do big money on box office. I know that you said it would be huge, you're the producer, for crying out loud, of course you said that would be huge.

And im not bullshithing you or anybody, i just talked about how much money i think a movie is going to do. No personal attacks.

Then again, they usually say that let the work of a man talk for himself...and i would let it go here.

And yeah, english is not my problem, i think it's yours, maybe you should learn to read, because you're making pretty valid the topic of the Hollywood producer that talks before reading the script.

Have a nice day in your tons of money.

Posted by: tyler666 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 03:47 AM

The reason why Mike Myers has been "holding off" for five years is because the studios know he's a pain in the ass and a giant megalomaniac, and his shtick was over five years ago, and he's pretty much a one-trick-pony. If he didn't have so much money he'd be on Hollywood Squares by now. Honestly, other than a scottish accent and a british accent, what can he do?

Posted by: Aris P [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 08:10 AM

Tyler666
Mexican is not a language. Why do you got to come here and be all racist?
---------

IRON MAN
from the director of ZATHURA

Posted by: Don Murphy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:00 AM

Aris-
he can also do that thing where he says he isn't going to cry and then starts getting teary eyed. He's got depth!

Posted by: PetalumaFilms [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 11:40 AM

Wayne's World was a very good film.

Posted by: Wrecktum [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 12:34 PM

Mike Myers is a control freak and The Love Guru has been "in development" on stage as a character for years.

I think he has been a bit overrated, but I have to give him credit for slowing it all down, dealing with his personal life (which hasn't been pleasant in recent years), and waiting for a character to be ready for prime time... we hope.

Fortunately, I don't have to deal with him. I got my fill on the very first Austin Powers, before it was a hit or even had a studio. But let's not jump on a guy for restraint.

On the other hand, I think that the lack of appreciation for Eddie Murphy's work in Norbit - a movie not as fine as that/those performance(s) - is a shame. I passed by it on cable the other night... man, that was not nothing. It is a tribute to his masterful work that you completely get lost in the fact that you are watching multiple performances for much of that film. And they are not just accents and make-up, like watching Sellers in Fu Manchu. These are wildly distinct characters.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 12:40 PM

DAVE POLAND JUST PRAISED NORBIT

It's been nice knowing you folks, but it appears the apocalypse is nigh.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:33 PM

Someone complimenting Norbit...

...cocaine is a hell of a -- you know what, never mind.

Posted by: JBM... [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2008 10:44 PM

Hang on: if you can look past the horrible script and direction, Eddie Murphy's performances in Norbit are, indeed, impressive.

That said, you still have to notice the awful rest of the movie, and the fact that he did it all better in The Nutty Professor. Give him an Oscar for that one if you must.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2008 12:31 AM

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