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SAG could end all the apprehension by opening talks. Of course, that would require them to have completed their W&W's and have selected their negotiators. The first process is just beginning and the second process hasn't begun yet. It sounds like they're hoping to be ready to be able to talk at the end of next month. In other words, at the very last second possible. (What has been described to me as "crisis negotiating")

Let's just hope that they've actually got a plan for negotiation rather than just the idea of more saber rattling. Their irresponsible statements regarding the DGA/WGA contracts did not show any forethought.

And I'm really hoping they're not going to try to start a battle with the AMPTP at the same time as a battle with AFTRA, and then try to manage a strike without the coordination that the WGA did bring when they went out.

Okay, maybe I'm an idiot, but I see an explanation of how Hollywood shuts down _with_ a SAG strike. How does it shut down without one?

^ I think what Dave means is that if there's any uncertainty at all, productions that would commence before the strike and then get shut down by one however far along they are won't start up at all. In other words, anything that would be expected to wrap up after the contract expires, even if it's only two days after, won't start filming in the first place.

jeff:

the studios won't put anything into production that might be jeopardized by a SAG strike. and bond companies will not bond a film they aren't guaranteed will be able to get completed.

it becomes a de facto strike like when the actors threatened a theatrical strike after their commercial strike. even though the actual strike didn't happen, the stock piling by the studios caused a major slowdown in the second half of that year.

I hope they don't shut down Transformers 2. Otherwise, we might see Bay acting in more commercials:

http://us.tnpv.net/2008/VER200802/Michael_Bay_FiOS_Ad.mpg

Thanks guys, that makes sense, now.

To all... please just keep in mind that even if there's no official word of a SAG strike, none of the bond company re-insurers will issue a completion guarantee for any movies with shooting schedules with the final shooting wrap deadline crossing no later than June 1, at this current moment.

Therefore, if your film project is not going to wrap shooting by May 31st, then, your movie can only be approved for full financial greenlight after a probable post-SAG strike date in the eyes of the completion bonders.

I believe you mean no later than July 1, with projects theoretically to wrap by June 30, when the SAG contract expires.

And if SAG truly intends to walk out, they have a heck of a lot of organizing to do in the next four and a half months. And before that, they hopefully have a heck of a lot of negotiating to do.

It was strange to read some of the hardliners insisting that Hollywood would shut down as of March 1 due to a possible SAG walkout, when it's been clear that television will be going likely right up to the deadline, and it's always possible to schedule a feature so that the project finishes by a certain time. Even a 12 week project could be started by April 1 and be done on time. And all of that assumes that SAG won't simply negotiate a new contract and end all of this speculation until 2011.

Bond company says June 15 wrap date, guys. Get your ADR done, also.

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