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February 04, 2008
WGA Strike: The Questions
I started to write this as a response to a petulant comment on another entry, but the issue seemed worthy of its own space (even if people in here really don't comment on the strike for whatever reasons).
Figuring out months ago how the strike would play out was not a magic trick. I t was simple logic. The Deal was always going to go onto the table soon after the force majeur period was clear. The start of a strike pretty much assured what many of us thought would be a month, then six weeks, and what turned out to be 2 months and a couple of weeks to negotiate the details.
WGA was so rageful that AMPTP tried to punish them by doing The Deal via DGA and giving them credit instead of WGA. Shitty.
But this is now water under the bridge. It is time for the perspective questions to start being considered.
1. What would have happened had WGA not struck in Nov?
No one knows, except the AMPTP. Would they have dragged their feet until WGA did strike so they could do force majeur, bring in DGA for a deal, and position SAG with 2 setlements so there would be no SAG strike? Could be. It could have been exactly the same scenario delayed a few months. The question then would have been, "If a strike was going to be forced and if the deal was going to be the same in the end, when was the best strategic place for WGA to strike?"
2. What would have happened if WGA waited on SAG's strike date?
Some feel that AMPTP would have locked out the writers at some point. I don't. I think the goal has always been to do the deal "they" were willing to do and to have no more than one strike.
Would we have spent the summer in a strike, talking about the loss of the fall TV season and the threat to Summer 2009's movies?
3. How would the industry have responded to attempts to jam the 2008 fall TV season into the working period that is usually spent wrapping up Spring? Would films meant to shoot next summer or even late spring get aborted in anticipation of a SAG/WGA strike?
Would WGA support have meant much to SAG's leverage or would everyone all just been out of work at the same time, making the whole thing so much more dramatic?
4. Would a strategic offer to work through Feb 15, with the implicit threat to shut down The Oscars and pilot season and 2009 movies if a deal could not be struck in the 3.5 month period of negotiations as the WGA continued to work on good faith have been effective?
I expect the most extreme WGAers to be unhappy with the deal they are offered. How can it not feel like a slap in the face after all that rhetoric? It's not personal... it's math. But all politics are local and it's very personal when you feel you have skin in the game. I get that. I just won't linger in it... which has some people thinking I am anti-WGA in all this. I can only continue to point to what I have written and say, obviously, I am not. I am also not a flame-throwing, unthinking pawn... or, in respect to striking writers, I have no need to lead with my chin as a negotiating tactic. (I would put all the "not so fast" stuff and pickets this week in that category. If anyone really thinks the Negotiating Committee is going to give up points because they think member resolve is slipping, they are deluded. As things go today, negotiating for another month is no worse than settling today if the deal isn't right. The NC has proven their mettle already... perhaps too much so.)
Of course, no one knows what these deals with the three major guilds will mean to the bottom line and won't for years. Will reruns be relegated to the web? Will DVD sales of TV shows remain strong? Will pay-tv networks overwhelm both delivery ideas?
Personally, I don't think these union deals will mean anything to how the studios choose to move forward... just lines on a spread sheet. The money involved is much bigger than residuals for all unions combined. Studios will go where they see the money... period.
This contract may seem great or misbegotten by the end of its run. And that is pretty much overly generous or unfair to the current negotiators as well. The great step forward for the Hollywood guilds would be ongoing negotiations over new technology that allows for annual steps that work for both sides. It is not how it’s been done in the past… but over the next two decades, it would be the way to do it… as in a few of the sports leagues. There is enough to go around. As in the end of all negotiations, there should be a little pain on both sides in the end… just a little… and a sense of comforted resolve as well.
Onward.
Posted by poland at February 4, 2008 01:39 PM
Comments
I know this is a tanget, but... who in the world is still buying DVDs of TV shows? I can understand movies, but how many times do you really need to watch an old season of Desperate Housewives? TV shows are why you get Netflix.
Posted by: Eric
at February 4, 2008 02:28 PM
I don't and never will do Netflix, so count me in the 'buying DVDs' contingent.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 02:33 PM
Really? Why not? Moral opposition or collector's impulse?
Posted by: Eric
at February 4, 2008 02:34 PM
Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 02:36 PM
Understood. I was a collector until I realized that over half of my sizable DVD collection is still in its original shrink-wrap.
Posted by: Eric
at February 4, 2008 02:39 PM
Ha, I only have a few like that. Mostly it's that, if I want to watch something, I don't want to have to wait until it arrives in the mail.
It is interesting that nobody on this site wants to ever really discuss the strike, though.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 02:44 PM
I would guess because not many people really have more than a passing knowledge about the issues.
Posted by: Aris P
at February 4, 2008 03:14 PM
I think it's because the people here are often either critics/journalists (not affected) or people on the production end (lips shut).
Posted by: mutinyco
at February 4, 2008 03:36 PM
i buy series (and yes, i have the shrink wrap ones collecting dust). i buy mostly shows from other countries though. and it's fun to watch episodes back to back to back. right now i'm into "davinici's inquest," a canadian show made in the late 90s. and like jeff, i'm obsessive/compulsive. have to watch from beginning to end. i can't just jump into the middle.
as for no strike talk, that's easy. david seemed to brook no deviation from his own opinions (ie he believes writers would not have been locked out, but gives no reason for this and there are a few compelling for the AMPTP to do so after mid-march). i got tired of beating my head against a brick wall a long time ago.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 4, 2008 03:57 PM
I'm too livid to discuss it.
I'm disgusted by the writer's arrogance and the fact that when we'll all go back to work we will step into a decimated industry.
No matter what Working AD says, reality is, whatever the writers (and anybody alse getting residuals) will get more, it will be taken out of the BLT's pockets.
And that's the unfortunate truth that nobody wants to admit.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 4, 2008 04:40 PM
And how do you figure that?
Decimated?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 04:44 PM
although unintentional, that's probably the right word. reduced by one tenth fits the bill.
looking at the network's development chart, we're probably only going to get about a tenth of the pilots that would've been made.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 4, 2008 04:49 PM
hend you are saying two different things, the first paragraphs says that the industry will be reduced by 10% and the second says that pilots will be reduced by 90%.
Posted by: Pat H.
at February 4, 2008 05:10 PM
I've never particularly cared for discussing the strike because a) I'm not that knowledgable about it, b) I'm torn on what I was knowledgeable about and c) I have other things to think about other than the strike, which isn't even in my own country and a strike, which we all knew would be resolved at some point.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 4, 2008 05:35 PM
Oh and on the matter of DVDs of TV shows I buy them from time to time. Mostly it's shows that I know have rewatchability. Sitcoms like Friends, Golden Girls, Futurama, Arrested Development and drama shows that I just love so much I could watch over and over like Twin Peaks and The Closer.
I haven't been buying regular DVDs much at all, lately. Just the occasional one that I know I'm going to watch. Unlike about half of my collection which is filled with completely random stuff that I like well enough but have never had the desire to ever want to watch again.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 4, 2008 05:37 PM
pat:
yup, saying two different things. about two different things. the industry as a whole and the smaller portion of it that is pilot season.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 4, 2008 06:01 PM
Why unintentional? That's exactly what I meant.
There will be less pilots in production, tons of crew jobs will be disappearing; the number of scripted shows, therefore union jobs for crew, will diminish too.
Plus, in features, schedules are going to be shortened, more productions will be out of LA to save money, since profit
participations and residuals to be paid will be grown.
Sure, that was the trend already, but now, because of this bloody strike, it's been accelerated.
So thanks so much writers, the extra crumbs in your pockets are costing our livelihood.
It's easy for outsiders to embrace the rhetoric idea that writers deserve their "fair" share. It's what happens when you don't have the bigger picture.
Do you think the extra money to be paid will come from the studio's pockets? Think again. The pie is what it is. Bigger piece for ATLs, smaller for us.
But who cares, right? We're just road kill.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 4, 2008 06:41 PM
If you want to blame the writers you also have to blame the producers. It's a two-way street.
And you know, IATSE can also strike too.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 06:52 PM
The producers? It's their money. They are expected to do what they are doing.
Some people fail to understand that once entertainment will migrate to the internet there will be the end of big paychecks.
Killing the cow that gives you the milk (in advance) is stupid.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 4, 2008 07:03 PM
So we can blame writers for wanting more money, but we can't blame producers (or ourselves) for the same thing?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 07:08 PM
wanting more money is not wrong.
wanting more money and damaging your brother to get it, it is.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 4, 2008 07:16 PM
I disagree with you.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 4, 2008 07:47 PM
I guess we're not ready for the macro questions quite yet...
Posted by: David Poland
at February 4, 2008 09:55 PM
The sad part of it, David, is that the comments here have actually been quite reserved and polite, particularly when compared to the stuff flying at UH and at Nikki Finke's gossip blog.
I have to again disagree with BTLine in that the additional residuals that come out of this deal will be coming from new revenues, and as the older revenue streams slow down, the newer ones will pick up. But I agree with him/her in that there will be economic consequences in the short and long term for this strike. I just got a call from a friend who works on Heroes, who had just read the item in the Reporter that his/her job may have just disappeared until July, even if the other shows come back right away. And there will certainly be fewer pilots this year and from now on. I've also heard the possibility that the number of staff writers on TV series may get reduced by the studios as well. And I tend to doubt that many of the deals that got cancelled due to force majeure will be brought back.
I continue to hope that the moderate members of the WGA will take an honest look at what gets presented to them this weekend. If it's a fair deal, and it appears to be one, then there really is no advantage to staying out for another five months in the hope of another couple hundred dollars on streaming residuals. Yes, the deal won't have reality or animation, and it won't double the DVD residual rate. Yes, the deal was patterned from the DGA deal. But the bottom line really should be, does the WGA deal as presented work for the moderate majority of its membership?
I also fully expect that several members will take the leadership to task over the health care fiasco. (And that's a source of pressure that's far stronger than anyone is currently admitting.)
Posted by: Working AD
at February 5, 2008 12:44 PM
What's most remarkable to me, WAD, is that when I suggest to working writers I know that the tone at NikkiVille is even the minority position, they continue to deny that this attitude even exists.
I think they are wrong. I think there is a group of hysterics and like the extreme right wing, they are louder than others. But I do think that they are a minority and that this deal, which as you say, will not have a lot of room for positive movement, will get approved.
If it doesn't, somehow, I suspect that there will be no "3 more weeks of negotiation" position. If this effort fails, I would expect AMPTP to retreat again... until SAG.
As I have said for a while now, there is no satisfactory answer for the riled up members after all this endless hate speech about AMPTP. Even getting exactly what they asked for in November would be too little to feel victorious.
Of course, Nikki's "the DGA is a shitty deal" ranting is strategy from the person planting it. And now, as that template becomes the deal, Nikki is backing off and others are writing about how WGA is changing the deal... DUH! It was never going to be the same exact deal. Anyone who had any concept of things knew that before the DGA deal was done.
Anyway... I would love to think that just a little harder push from WGA would change the dynamics of the deal. But that's not reality. Never was.
Moreover, if the membership was to reject a deal offered by the Negotiating Committee, the question would become, "Who is in charge?"
And who is probably least pleased with a deal getting done? Alan Rosenberg, who gets cornered if the WGA and DGA deals are done.
Posted by: David Poland
at February 5, 2008 01:50 PM
Nikki has been downplaying the merits of the deal because she wants the strike to go on forever. It has made her an internet sensation, the queen of the new media Hollywood journalists. But when it's over, she goes back to simply being crazy Nikki.
The "writers" who would vote no on this deal are loud but small in number. They have praised Young and Verrone from day one... and now they want to portray them as surrender monkeys. Give me a break. The deal isn't great but it's the best the guild is going to get unless... well, unless what? They strike forever? They blow up this town and the guild so they can have an identity other than an out of work writer?
Ain't gonna happen.
Posted by: MASON
at February 5, 2008 02:57 PM
i agree. this is the last chance til july and SAG.
that's the problem with demonizing a side. sooner or later, a deal must be struck and then you have to convince your constituents that they may not be so bad.
p.s. still not convinced rosenberg and hollywood board won't push for a strike, even if both WGA and AFTRA settle.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 5, 2008 05:04 PM
I fully agree that Nikki Finke's behavior during this situation has been abominable. I really hope people remember the very negative role she has deliberately played when she attempts to rewrite the history either in her column or in the book she'll eventually peddle. The fact is, she's spent most of the strike posting gossip and rumors, usually intended to embarass and anger the moguls. And the strike has certainly boosted her readership, so I agree that she's not going to be overjoyed to lose the status she thinks she's gained once everyone goes back to work.
And I agree that the consequences of snubbing this offer will be a strike/lockout that extends all the way to the summer, by which point the damage done to all the guilds will be fairly extensive.
I'm not convinced that SAG is prepared to go on a protracted strike. Given that they haven't even prepared for their negotiations, much less begun organizing for pickets, it seems more likely to me that they've been waiting on the sidelines to see what deals the other guilds get before putting forth their own strategy. Rosenberg and Allen's unfortunate comments about the DGA deal only underlined this. And Michael Apted easily batted away their complaints by contrasting their dismissal of the deal with their admission that they didn't really know what was in the deal.
Posted by: Working AD
at February 6, 2008 04:38 AM
Working AD:
you see their lack of preparation as a sign they won't strike. i see the opposite. that they are willing to comment on a deal despite their ignorance of what is in the deal is indicative of acting first, thinking later.
if WGA deal is even slightly better, that sends the signal to SAG that striking will at least getting them moderate gains.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 6, 2008 10:16 AM
"...is indicative of acting first, thinking later.
if WGA deal is even slightly better, that sends the signal to SAG that striking will at least getting them moderate gains."
Absolutely.
Rosenberg seems like a crazy horse fretting behind the gate waiting to open for the race.
Fasten your seatbels, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 6, 2008 10:36 AM
If Rosenberg and Allen take SAG out on strike without any preparation, the result could be as much of a disaster as the Commercial Strike or the infamous 1985 WGA Strike. A good chunk of the SAG membership seems convinced that these guys are totally disorganized, and pulling a move like this would completely backfire on them.
Posted by: Working AD
at February 6, 2008 11:25 AM
i didn't say it wouldn't be a disaster.
and, yes, a good chunk is against the leadership. of course, a good chunk is for them too (hence getting elected and re-elected). the two sides are very polarized against each other.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 6, 2008 11:31 AM
Actors are feeling ansy:
"To: Alan Rosenberg and Doug Allen
Re: Screen Actors Guild Negotiations
Given the hardships that so many people in our
industry have endured over the past several months, it
is my strong belief that the Screen Actors Guild needs
to proceed as soon as possible with the negotiation of
a new agreement with the AMPTP. The employment of any
actor past June 30th is currently non-existent because
no production entity will risk shooting after the
expiration of the current contract. This situation is
preventing potential employment for an exorbitant
number of individuals, not only actors, but the
thousands of others whose livelihoods depend on the
film and television business. We must try to
circumvent this problem and attempt to resolve this
situation sooner rather than later. If an agreement
cannot be made, I can understand the need to support
our union, but why wait? I implore you to start now.
Sincerely,"
Posted by: BTLine
at February 6, 2008 11:45 AM
BTLine:
my understanding is that letter is not coming from SAG membership. it's being sent by people affiliated to the industry to SAG members to try to raise support against a strike. i got a copy this morning urging me to pass along to any SAG members i knew.
Posted by: hendhogan
at February 6, 2008 11:56 AM
you are right.
Posted by: BTLine
at February 6, 2008 12:15 PM
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