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March 04, 2008

Is Focus Dumping The Next Coen Bros Movie?

What appears to be a show of support on the surface is sending up big ol' red flags for me.

Focus announced today that Burn After Reading will be released "wide" on September 12, spun as an expansion of faith in the film's commercial upside.

But the reality is that September is the place where quality movies go to die.

Let's take a look at both angles... box office and awards. First, awards, as it is clearer.

Q: How many movies have opened on over 1000 screens in September and been nominated for a Best Picture Oscar?
A: 1 - Goodfellas, 1990

Q: How many movies have opened to over $5 million in September and been nominated for a Best Picture Oscar?
A: 2 - Goodfellas, with $6.4 million and L.A. Confidential, with $5.2 million

Q: How many Best Picture nominations have come out of September in the last 20 years?
A: 10, 3 of which launched on the last weekend, overlapping into October, including The Queen and Capote, 2 of the 4 September releases to be nominated in the last decade.

In the last three years, 11 films released in September “qualified” for serious Oscar consideration, with $15 million at the domestic box office and the intent to race. The only two that made it to a nomination were The Queen and Capote… both released on the very last day of the month. (3:10 to Yuma, The Brave One, A History of Violence, Across the Universe, Lord of War, The Black Dahlia, Into the Wild, The Last King of Scotland, Eastern Promises all missed… with a wide range of qualities.)

Now...

Focus is surely selling the Lost In Translation run for Best Picture as the template for Burn After Reading. However, Lost never was on more than 882 screens in the entire course of its run and never cracked 500 screens back in September. American Beauty, the only September opener to win the Oscar in the last 20 years-plus, also stayed under 500 screens in September.

Focus also tried a version of this strategy with The Constant Gardener, opening the film on August 31 in 2005... resulting in $35 million and no Best Picture nomination.

So you have to wonder... have The Coens asked to be pulled out of the Oscar race next year? Has the studio seen a first cut of the picture and decided that it wasn't a racer? Or is Focus just going to pull out the stops for Harvey Milk and pushing this high profile distraction out of the way (as in, "Well, we'll get noms for George and Fran and the boys for screenplay and that's enough.")?

Amongst the bloodied in September in recent years: Eastern Promises, The Brave One, All The King’s Men, The Black Dahlia, Hollywoodland, The Illusionist, A History of Violence, Vanity Fair, Matchstick Men, The Four Feathers, City by the Sea, Hearts In Atlantis, Almost Famous, One True Thing, Rounders, Soul Food, In & Out, A Thousand Acres, The Game, The Spitfire Grill, Seven, Clockers, The Usual Suspects, The Last of The Mohicans, Husbands & Wives, Sneakers, and The Fisher King.

And September releases all but disappeared were: The Darjeeling Limited, Lust, Caution, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, An Unfinished Life, Proof, Oliver Twist, A Sound of Thunder, Everything Is Illuminated, and Separate Lies.

On The Financial Side...

Q: How many September wide releases have cracked $50 million domestic?
A: 32... another 18 hit $40m... 20 more when you lower the bar ot $30m.

The Coens had a couple commerical-style releases open to around $12.5 million (The Ladykillers and Intolerable Cruelty) and both passed $35 million at the domestic box office... and the Clooney-fronted film cracked $120 million worldwide. Both films were tagged - to excess - as commercial disappointments.

This last two years, 29 films opened wide in September. Of those, 13 opened to double digits. And 11 of the 29 cracked $35 million total domestic. Still, the only films in the group not looked at askew as "box office dissapointments" are The Illusionist, 3:10 To Yuma, and The Game Plan.

Finally…

Consider this.

In the last decade, only two of the follow-up films from the Best Picture-winning director were NOT seen as disappointments… and that is only because we have not seen another Scorsese film since The Departed or the next Coen Bros film.

Two of the eight films were seriously commercial – Ridley Scott’s Hannibal and Peter Jackson’s King Kong - though both were seen as “not commercial enough.”

The other six were all tagged a self-serious mediocrities that underperformed financially: In The Valley of Elah, Flags of Our Fathers, Memoirs of a Geisha, The Missing, The Road To Perdition, Captain Corelli's Mandolin… though the criticism was excessive and truly unfair in at least a couple of cases.

So perhaps The Coens have just learned the trick of lowering expectations and being satisfied by a decent box office result (likely under $50 million) and less awards pressure.

What this clearly does not represent is anyone’s idea of “going for it” again. And there’s nothing wrong with that… is there?

Posted by poland at March 4, 2008 12:01 PM

Comments

I guarantee you give more of a shit about the Coens chances at an Oscar next year than they do.

BURN AFTER READING was never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, EVER going to be a film that anyone seriously ran for Academy Awards. Even a cursory read of the script makes that apparent. This is the funny Coens this time, and I don't think it matters what month the film comes out... there's a limit to how wide that audience is ever going to be.

Posted by: Drew [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 01:46 PM

Let's see that long list of Focus releases that were not chasing Oscar.

Did a cursory reading of Lost In Translation (not that the script ever locked) suggest an Oscar nod, a race, or even much box office?

Did you read Juno and go, "Oscar!!!"

I didn't write a single word about The Coens wanting or expecting an Oscar run. I'm quite sure they didn't go into No Country looking for one either.

But I guarantee you I give less of a shit about this film's box office and awards chances than Focus does.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 01:54 PM

Dave...

Not a slam. Just an observation. Relax, big guy.

I just think that putting every single picture through the Oscar prism leads to some oddball thinking, and the Coens have rarely been invited to the Oscars in the first place. This is simply them returning to form after an anomaly year.

Posted by: Drew [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:03 PM

All this means it that we have another good movie in what is typically a dead period of the year, instead of the traffic jam of all the 'quality' movies crammed into December and January, which is aok with me.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:14 PM

How did SOUND OF THUNDER get name-checked above? The years-delayed Hyams potboiler which seems to contain actors walking on a treadmill in front of back blue-screen projection? Just seems like an odd, random choice to throw in the mix.

On topic, can't these guys just do awesome crime movies every time? The sepia-toned screwball ones aren't unamusing, and I appreciate their diversity, but compared to Josh Brolin running around with shotguns and OWNING shit in an awesome stache with GIANT-ASS TRUCKS... the thought of more arch irony and antic mugging and bluegrass music just doesn't send the same charge of excitement.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:21 PM

Drew, Mazel Tov on the kid!

Jeff, I think that's a good point. If the Coens or Focus aren't going to be chasing Oscars, then why not put a good movie out in late August or early September? I love when there are actual quality movies released throughout the entire year instead of being happy when I get the odd Paranoid Park or Zodiac in March or Constant Gardener in late August. I wish there would be less catering to the Academy's "short term memory" or trying to fit potential films into little boxes: money-maker or award winner.

Posted by: Noah [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:28 PM

Will the Coens ever make "To the White Sea?"

Personally, i'm a little burnt out on last year's Oscar race to worry about this one. I understand the mechanics, politics, and financials behind academy award nominations, but at some point, at least this early in the year, i have to believe that quality is a priority for the awards.

I realize it's immature to think that quality is more important than release date, financial success, etc. But hell, Juno got nominated, so there goes that theory.

Posted by: anghus [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:38 PM

Before NO COUNTRY, what Coen Bro movie would be considered an Oscar contender? It's not like they have a good track record.

Posted by: Richard Nash [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 02:44 PM

Releasing award films in September a bad idea. Check. Got it. Good.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:01 PM

Didn't they win the Best Screenplay Oscar for Fargo?

And Jeff Bridges and John Goodman should have Oscars for The Big Lebowksi, dammit.

Posted by: Goulet [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:13 PM

Why not put it in August or July?

Why not put it in October, where Clooney has now had a few successes, including Intolerable Cruelty?

September is a box office month of oddities... and September 12 always seems like a burial at sea to me. But maybe it will be lovely.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:31 PM

Richard Nash, the Coens previously got a Best Picture and Director nominations for Fargo, Best Screenplay nomination for O Brother Where Art Thou? Not to mention that they've won or been nominated for BAFTAs, Palmes d'Or, Independent Spirit awards, Golden Globes, etc.

How are Sanchez and Rufus Masters, by the way? We've all been worried.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:34 PM

That's exactly what I thought as soon as I saw a post from Richard.

Posted by: Stella's Boy [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:38 PM

From what I know of this movie, putting it in July or August would result in even greater commercial suicide than putting it in the Fall.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 03:44 PM

What's sexier than Oscar-concern-trolling? Really.

Hey, here's an idea—why doesn't Focus Features just do the right thing, since it's given its hand away, and not release "Burn After Reading" in theaters AT ALL? Focus should just make the film an Easter Egg on the DVD of whatever Oscar-worthy (by David Poland's standards, of course) movie the Coens eventually cough up for Focus, no?

There would be nothing wrong with that, would there? It could be lovely!!!

Posted by: Glenn Kenny [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 04:37 PM

In an effort not to overreact to your odd post, Glenn... are you suggesting that I don't think that the movie (or any) matters if it isn't Oscar bait... or are you suggesting that of Focus?

I seem to recall The Coens confusing you, so I am truly unclear on your intent.

Either answer plays. One gets a big, angry "f-you" response. The other just gets a roll of the eyes. Let me know.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 06:05 PM

Has a black comedy ever won Best Picture? Does ALL ABOUT EVE count? THE APARTMENT? Anyone care to make a case for THE DEPARTED?

BURN AFTER READING is more along the lines of FARGO, but much less reassuring; the script takes an even dimmer view of humanity than NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, if that's possible.

But didn't Focus open THE CONSTANT GARDENER in late August? They got a Best Supporting Actress Oscar out of that. Early September is a dead zone until it isn't.

Posted by: Jeremy Smith [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 06:36 PM

goulet, just wanted to concur about jeff bridges in the big L, one of the single greatest performances of all time, all hail the duder

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 07:01 PM

What, Titanic wasn't a dark comedy?

Posted by: doug r [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 07:15 PM

Crash is a comedy, and it has lots of black people in it...

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 07:17 PM

Come on. A Coen Bros. off-beat comedy contending for anything besides a screenplay nom? I doubt it.

This has about as much chance contending for anything big as Confessions of a Dangerous Mind did. Not much.

Posted by: lazarus [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 07:47 PM

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here, David. Seven ($100 million domestic gross, $327 million worldwide) was "bloodied" in September? How so?

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2008 10:31 PM

You mean, you understand 850 words of it and 1 makes no sense to you?

My apologies.

That would be in the Oscar section of the piece, no?

Of course there are September successes. But like Seven, very few are in any way complex. The eight September releases in history to crack $100 million domestic are Double Jeopardy, Fatal Attraction, The First Wives Club, Remember the Titans, Rush Hour, Seven, Crocodile Dundee, Sweet Home Alabama.

Company you would have the Coens keep?

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 12:20 AM

I know he's the PROGNOSTICATION MASTER and all, and clearly knows his shit when it comes to release dates and history and all... and weekly BO reports all tend to base the weekend's success against the PREVIOUS YEAR'S EXACT DATES...

BUT ISN'T ALL THAT SHIT KINDA ARBITRARY?

Let me assure you, Joe Six-Fuck in rural Pennsylvania isn't like, "Oh, it's September 17th; I don't go to see movies THIS weekend. Hit me back in December."

NOBODY NOTICES THAT SHIT, homes.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 03:10 AM

You are correct that it is, in principle, arbitrary.

And you are wrong if you choose to argue that trends don't exist and have some subtext to them.

Release any movie that people really want to see on any day of the year and they will show up. But releasing a Coen Bros movie is not releasing Spider-Man 4... or even Sweet Home Alabama.

And the ability to open some movies is very seasonally dependent in a real way.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 03:27 AM

As I recall, Fatal Attraction was nominated for six Oscars (including Best Picture), became a genuine pop culture phenomenon, sparked op-ed pieces, and even wound up on the cover of Time magazine. (Or was it Newsweek?) So, yeah, I wouldn't mind that happening to a Coen Brothers movie.

Posted by: Joe Leydon [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 05:45 AM

I personally don't see what all the fuss is about.
If Focus (and the Coens) want to open their new movie--which sounds a lot closer to "The Big Lebowski" or "Intolerable Cruelty" than to "Fargo" or "No Country for Old Men"--the weekend of September 12th, all power to them.
Too bad Focus is still beholden to the whole fall/prestigious movie thing, though. I'd love to see this open in the dog days of summer when we could really use a shot of the Coen's trademark misanthropic anarchy.
I'm guessing they're planning to premiere it in Venice (maybe Teluride), certainly Toronto, no?
And "Milk" looks a lot more like the kind of big, "serious" film that gets a full-throttle awards season push anyway.
Personally I can't wait to see BOTH movies.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 06:09 AM

Focus is the one arty imprint that's gone big on Oscar-whoring year-round. Look at how they're promoting "In Bruges" and "Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day".

BTW, "American Beauty" also went over $100M in the US -- and it opened in September.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 08:43 AM

Please don't get angry on my account, David. Feel free to roll your eyes. And for the record, the Coens have never confused me. There's a difference between confusion and trying to parse ambiguity.

Posted by: Glenn Kenny [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 10:00 AM

Was Road to Perdition really criticised? It snagged 6 Oscar nominations, all well deserved, and topped $100 million at the domestic box office. I suspect it's this film you're thinking of when you say criticism was unjust.

Posted by: adaml [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 12:46 PM

I think we can safely assume that In Bruges and Miss Pettigrew will not be nominated for any major awards, even though I liked Bruges. Chucky, your obsessiveness is tiresome.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 02:58 PM

Not as tiresome as having to put up with "Academy Award Winner" and/or "Academy Award Nominee" in the trailer, poster, print ads or any combination thereof.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 04:04 PM

God forbid! Is there a foundation I can mail a donation to ease the suffering of the victims of this scourge?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 04:17 PM

I kind of hope that Chucky goes into fits of rage/hysterics everytime he goes to the cinema and sees that line on a poster or trailer. It'd be hilarious for anyone watching.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 5, 2008 10:34 PM

Actually I find that a good way to know which films are a Must to Avoid so I don't have to waste my hard-earned money in this economy.

As for the foundation jeffmcm wants to set up? AMPAS must have a slush fund that gets a kickback every time a studio goes Oscar-whoring.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 6, 2008 05:00 PM

Chucky, what you just said is exactly why I think you're insane: since No Country for Old Men is "from Oscar-winners Joel and Ethan Coen", you would therefore decide it's a piece of garbage and choose to see, say, Alvin and the Chipmunks, a film with no Oscar winner or nominee in the cast or major crew role. Can you confirm or deny that this is, in essence, your position? Because that's what you just said, and it's bonkers. The quality of a film has nothing to do with how the marketing people decide to sell it.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 6, 2008 05:23 PM

For the record, Focus opened "Vanity Fair" and "The Constant Gardener" on the Wednesday before a Labor Day. Mainstream theaters often book arty fare for that weekend to get patrons on the last weekend of summer season.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 7, 2008 11:57 AM

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