The Hot Blog

« March 2008 | Main | May 2008 »

April 29, 2008

Interesting Comparison

Posted by poland at 11:36 PM | Comments (30)

BYOB - Hump Day

Posted by poland at 11:24 PM | Comments (31)

Again With The Videogames Vs Theatrical BS???

I don't want to belabor the idiocy of all this... but Financial Times, of all places, is selling this junk about the release of Grand Theft Auto IV damaging Iron Man's opening. (Variety added this goof.)

Last September, when Halo 3 was going to destroy the box office, Peter Berg's The Kingdom opened to $1.4 million less than Peter Berg's The Rundown did on the same date four years earlier. It is possible that Halo 3 geeks staying home and playing all weekend had some minor effect on that opening. But it's a lot more likely that the $23 million opening for The Game Plan was a lot more significant. In the end, the total domestic grosses for the two films were almost identical (under $200k).

Could there be a million dollar hit on the Iron Man opening because GTA4 players stay home all weekend and don't go to see IM until the second weekend? Sure. But with an opening that is likely between $60m and $75m, that million bucks is minor.

And Paramount should be lowering expectations, which have run way out of control based on geek love. The studio knows that their audience is somewhat limited. You can see it in every single ad. That doesn't mean that they won't have a huge number by any fair standard. But this idea that it's a $100 million weekend or bust is just dumb.

I repeat... the best opening for a non-sequel and non-Spider-Man in that slot is still Van Helsing's $52 million. Four years later and much better buzz, one can imagine a 50% increase. But a 100% increase?

Anything is possible. But if it does, it will be a shock, not something you should be expecting.

Posted by poland at 06:05 PM | Comments (41)

No Iron Man Is An Island...

But maybe it's The Island.

Oy.

Iron Man is better than the Mark Steven Johnson comic book movies… but I’m pretty sure that comes under the category of Damning With Faint Praise.

And to answer a number of people who seem to have a problem with Jon Favreau directing this film, the troubles with the movie don’t have much to do with the directing. (Why he needs an extended cameo in the movie, however, is beyond me.)

The problem with Iron Man is the script… or the utter lack thereof.

But the suit is really, really, really cool.

Downey is Downey… forever entertaining, but as so often is the case, left here to improvise what the screenwriters couldn’t deliver… and which too many people at the love-in clearly mistook for brilliance.

The truly desperate performances here belong to Jeff Bridges, who is too good an actor to chew this much scenery and not look like he’s slumming, and Terrence Howard, who took the money to be The Black Best Friend and got a role that wasn’t even that complex. Ms. Paltrow is better off, since her skirts, like the other great costume in the film, gets to do most of the acting for her.

The use of Middle Easterners/Northern Africans as Colorform villains and victims is actually close to offensive if you spend more than a second to think about it. Really, we are at the “wog” level, which I do not forgive in the name of similarly beige people being victimized as well. Obviously, the reference is to the current war, but the flagrant disinterest in these people being anything other than cardboard cutouts is kind of sad… particularly when you get to the third act and realize that it was all a gimmick.

Do we really think the use of the remembered imagery of American businessmen and journalists beheaded by dark skinned men in headdresses is already the kind of kitsch you throw into a comic book movie? I don’t. And I will say, the same kind of imagery used in comic books has not bothered me… because the books seem to actually be trying to use it as more than a stunt.

But hey… I’m just being a nasty old f***, judging a comic book movie like it was actually supposed to work as a regular movie.

Then, I have a hard time… because when you see this film, you will know how closely they followed Batman Begins and X-Men templates (not to mention its pale imitations of the brilliantly satiric RoboCop). So they know you can make an entertaining comic book film with a little edge. The problem is that Batman’s training, via the efforts of David Goyer and Christopher Nolan, actually did feel profound and meaningful, at least on a movie-movie level. A big part of that is that Bruce Wayne was challenged by the people from whom he learned to reach a part of himself that is greater than his personal anger. Here, Tony Stark only learns from Tony Stark’s pain… apparently the first pain in his life. (His dead father is an issue only in the most perfunctory way.) And even when he claims to be turning the corner to The Good, his good actions remain selfish, thoughtless, and without account for anyone else. (This is where his Best Black Friend is supposed to come in… but his main use is to “clear the sky.”)

But the suit is really, really, really cool.

So let’s just look only at the Comic Book Movie of it all…

Five action sequences strung together by talktalktalktalktalktalktalktalk signifying nothing. 1) The dessert attack, 2) The first suit, 3) Building and testing the second suit, 4) Middle East revenge, and 5) the big finale against the bad guy. (Note: I am avoiding any real spoilers here.)

1) Okay… seen this before, done a lot better.
2) Fairly cool, though parts of it are just not thought out, including “what was the good plan for guy without a suit?”
3) Probably the best sequence, though nothing original and not within a mile of “first experience” sequences in Spider-Man, Superman, or any of the non-Schumacher Batman movies.
4) Seems like it will be special, but we spend a lot more time than expected looking as something flashing across the sky that we can’t really make out.
5) A mess on pretty much every level, especially when you realize how the film chooses to be derivative of parts of other, better films that didn’t work.

Of course, geeks will cream over the many inside references in the film. Really, how many times can a movie set up an acronym joke and still get a laugh? 3 or 4 in the room where I saw the film. And still, when the inevitable came, the people who didn’t know the joke when they walked into the room didn’t see the humor when it landed… because the only thing amusing about it is that you know its coming… like Dane Cook.

And geeks will likely LOVE the movie. Five action sequences, three different suits, Downey clowning, Gwynnie’s legs, and lots of cool CG close-ups should do the job.

Not for me.

And not, I suspect, for any category outside of the geeks. There is nothing here for non-geek adults, which there was in the coming-of-age Spider-Man films, the serious-minded Batman films, and the romantic-tinged Superman films. There is nothing here for women, unless they are suckers for the woman-who-obsessively-care-for-the-selfish man schtick. And it really is too dark for the little tykes.

But the suit is really, really, really cool.

All appearances suggest that the film will open to $60m-$70m, which would be a second-best ever record for a non-sequel in this slot in the summer. And somewhere between $175 million and $210 million is likely for the film… more likely on the low end… though if Speed Racer doesn’t pick up a bit, it could be on the higher end. Either way, the movie has 3 weekends, max.

Finally, what will probably cause the most consternation… This appears to be the Pass movie of the early summer for critics. Is it because of Downey or the middle-aged hero or talk about a huge opening or the use of the Middle East and the half-ass political arguments of the film that play out hypocritically but pay active lip service to liberals… I don’t know.

All I do know is that when film critics are the ones identifying with your superhero, you may be being successful with the wrong demo for mega-bucks... which is all the film producers wanted in the first place. Me? I just wanted a character who actually dealt with the obvious demons that he overcomes... and not just another really, really cool suit of CG armor.

Posted by poland at 07:07 AM | Comments (52)

April 28, 2008

BYOB - Return to L.A.

It's yet another travel day... to be followed by another on Wed, heading to the San Francisco International Film Fest...

You're up.

Posted by poland at 11:44 PM | Comments (50)

Hollywood, Ink. - May 28, 2008

I've been wanting MCN to be doing an editorial cartoon for years. I am a huge fan of the form and as far as I know, no one has ever done a regular one for this industry.

You might recall me posting some political cartoons from The NY Observer here a few weeks ago, both of which used movie poster images to make their point. Those were from RJ Matson... and we are thrilled that he has agreed to work with us each week, in addition to his ongoing work with NYO, The St Louis Dispatch (his home paper), and the Capital Hill daily, Roll Call.

Look for a new comic-tary from RJ every Monday.

This week's inspiration... the Spike Lee/Nokia deal.

Here is the first cartoon...

Posted by poland at 11:15 PM | Comments (3)

Lunch With... Tarsem Singh On The Fall

The interview...

(Note: Apologies to Tarsem for the mistaken label on the front of the video... it is being fixed now.)

Posted by poland at 11:07 PM | Comments (1)

The Culture Of The Apolo-Lie

I just saw all this crap about Miley Cyrus and her exposed back and lipstick.

OMFG!

People do know that 15-year-old breasts, while they really have no business being shown in public, do exist, whether covered in a sheet or a t-shirt, right?

Really, bottom line, this tempest in a training bra is nothing but a screw up by a personal publicist who didn't call Disney to get their input on Miley's Annie Lebowitz output before this became an issue... that is, combined with the increasing arrogance of Ms Cyrus, whose urges to go more "adult" have been signaled endlessly, especially in her concert tour.

There is a long, long way between Ms Cyrus getting out of cars without panties or indulging hourly shots of the side of her breast in a bikini or taking video of going to second base or whatever the Scum Pack is doing this week and an Annie Lebowitz shoot that includes a provocative image that smartly addresses the question of selling teen sexuality without really including much of it.

But Disney is pissed. No doubt, Vanity Fair heard about it before they went on the web with it and did it anyway, knowing that they would have a must-discuss-Vanity-Fair moment for the first time in a while, and would still have the open door to publish or not publish the photos. (However, people must realize that the actual magazines are likely in the printing process and unlikely to change, no matter what the furor.) Disney, knowing its been played, is overreaching with near-kiddie-porn accusations. And Miley is playing the role of The Innocent, caught between two companies and between stages of maturity. BLECH!

Of course, this is the same infantile stance that America continues to take about The Rev Wright, Gerry Ferraro, rare slips of the tongue by candidates who are on the trail gabbing for hours a day, etc, etc, etc.

Apologies to placate groups that misunderstand - usually intentionally - are an insult to everyone. They are patronizing to the idiots who "misunderstand" because why should an apology matter if the fact is really that important. And they insult the people who do understand by allowing the rug to be pulled out from under the truth.

I'm not saying that there is a TRUTH, but let's stop being such babies about telling The Truth. Let's get Gallup to poll pedophiles and see whether they would rather satisfy themselves to Miley Cyrus' concert DVD or this rather innocent photo in which Miley's back is exposed. Then, let's have Gallup poll people who claim to be "regular" but who see the photo as some sort of come-hither image that suggests a hard night of sex with the 15-year-old. It's those people who I worry about.

The main thing I noticed was that the girl needs to improve her posture.

Posted by poland at 09:28 AM | Comments (115)

April 26, 2008

Ang In Urbana

Ang Lee is here at EbertFest, presenting Hulk.

I hadn't realized that he was here for his undergrad work, years ago.

He's become a more and more relaxed interview (as we found on his Lust, Caution LWD), the highlight so far being his discussion of The Ice Storm, which he says he should have called "The Fuck You Movie," as the choice to do it was a direct response to having made "nice, heartwarming" films. He said, "A lady would come up to me and say, 'I just loved Sense & Sensibility,' and I'd just want to punch her in the face."

On Hulk, he copped to how much the film was about his problems with his own dad. He also talked a lot about how tough the critical response to the film was in America. Like Lust, Caution, other countries saw the politics of it.

What really struck me sitting here is that Lee makes films that, for Americans, are really for women and for men over 35. The perceived failures of Hulk seems to have come from comicbook fans who wanted the very male testosterone rush. That just wasn't the movie Ang Lee made.

Of course, there was a Heath Ledger question. Ang talked about the work and simply said, "I love him... He carries the movie." (He also said that it was Jake G's role to steal the movie... and he did.)

Posted by poland at 12:17 PM | Comments (93)

BYOBox Office

Can't get a chart posted on the iPhone, but Klady's estimates should be on the MCN front page... have at it.

My short response is that Harold & Kumar 3, which is terrible (especially compared to the glorious original), opened off its DVD love and the number is about right. And a strong campaign by Universal for a not very good movie worked on Baby Mama.

Posted by poland at 12:11 PM | Comments (61)

April 25, 2008

Baby Nah Nah

Sorry... but comedy is harder than it looks... even for pros who are strapping on the directing jodhpurs for the first time.

Forgetting Sarah Marshall was a terrific idea with some interesting talent, desperately in need of a director and a producer. And now, Baby Mama is a terrific idea with two extremely compelling actresses... in desperate need of a producer to tell the writer that, 1) he can't direct and 2) that the script needs work on the story level and 3) just because Mike Myers improved a lot of Wayne's World does not mean that Amy Pohler can save his story problems by making faces, even if she gets laughs.

Universal is smartly selling only the first act of Baby Mama, because if they told you where it was going, you wouldn't show up. People want to see the uptight working woman learn about life from the wild white trash chick. But someone told writer/"director" Mike McCullers that the big heartwarming turn that is an old tradition on these films would be a good idea. But it misses by a mile. The hard part is that fightingthe studio "make the characters more likeable" thing was right too. But the "not obvious" choices must be elegant. It's just that making warmth work from the bones of a farce is a mile tall order... few make it... as is proven again here.

We're getting more and more of these near-miss comedies in light of the Apatow success. And I find it wildly frustrating, as in both of these cases, a better movie was sitting there, waiting for a bright, critical voice pushing the writers and first-time directors to be more demanding of themselves. (There is a reason why Apatow hires unexpected, but experienced and hungry directors for so many of the films he produces.)

Posted by poland at 10:34 AM | Comments (21)

April 24, 2008

Friday, Friday

It's Friday in lovely Champaign, Urbana.

I spent the morning on a panel with the surprising combination of Joey Pants, Barry Avrich, Tarsem, and the legendary Paul Schrader. The panel was on the nature of making personal movies in a business-minded industy, but became mostly about the evolution - or devolution - of distribution for indies. Pantoliano's film here, Canvas, was funded in part by he and his co-star, Marcia Gay Harden, who contributed their fees and more. Tarsem funded his own film, The Fall. Avrich has made tough docs about US subjects out of Canada. And Schrader, obviously, has been through all areas of the biz.

Schrader was particularly vocal about a paradigm shift he feels has already happened, away from the traditional model (a tradition for 30 years, since VHS) and into a whole new set of delivery options dominating.

I disagree.

It's not that the delivery systems won't exist or won't get traction. It is my ongoing belief that there is a huge economic need for theatrical and that one you get to the afterlife of a film, there will be a dozen delivery options... but only one, relatively low, price point that Hollywood will to adjust to in budgeting production and distribution.

As always, a recurrin theme is that people who want more quality film have a responsibilty to spending dollars on better films. And filmmakers, like the ones on the panel, need to put their money where their rhetoric is.

Posted by poland at 05:08 PM | Comments (0)

April 23, 2008

A Fresh BYOB

Expect some spot blogging from here...

Meanwhile, a clean page for you all to play on...

Posted by poland at 10:47 PM | Comments (112)

Sipping Champaign

It was a long trip to Champaign-Urbana from Los Angeles today. But it was too long a trip for Roger Ebert to make, laid up in his hospital room, still pressuring his doctors to give him a greenlight to bring his broken hip to his hometown for even a few hours at his namesake film festival.

It's the 10th anniversary of Ebertfest and while last year felt a bit like a tribute to Roger himself - many of his closest filmmaker friends brought films and his own screenplay effort, Beyond The Valley of the Dolls, was shown - this year feels more like the festival Roger and his top sidekick, Nate Kohn, have programmed for years... films that have very mixed reputations, but play at their best with the warm embrace of Roger to offer this audience the reasons why they should love the films as well.

Roger's wife, Chaz, will serve as lead host, as she did last year with Roger in attendance. Her opening remarks at today's pre-show cocktail were very emotional and sweet and expressed what many of us in town for yet another year felt. Roger's physical absence, combined with the permanent loss of "co-conspirator" Dusty Cohl, just feels odd and, as Chaz said, melancholic.

This is not the first Ebertfest at which I have seen every film programmed. And it's an odd coincidence that I just sat down for a "Lunch" with Tarsem Singh, that one of my favorite "Lunches" of last year was with Ang Lee, who is going to be here with Hulk, and that another was with John Turturro for Romance & Cigarettes.

But coming to Ebertfest long ago stopped being about business for me. It's a trip to Southern Illinois to have an annual reunion with a part of my family. I've never been particularly close with Roger & Chaz... though they have been very generous to me over many years now. I was closer with Dusty... and am thrilled to have a chance to spend some time with his wife, the amazing Joan. But I have not had a lot of mentors in my life's work. Both men have been, when they knew it and when they didn't, filling that slot in various ways. And there are others... friends from here who I see every year... friends that I have traveled with on The Floating Film Festival... friends from the journalistic and industry trenches.

You can be a fan or not a fan of Roger Ebert. But you can't deny, when you are here - even when he is absent physically - his passion and commitment to film. In many ways, his absence, which we all hope will be brief, feels like a call for all of us who might push forward to find ways to bring similar passion to our circles of the world to do so.

To do any less would just be unrogerlike.

Posted by poland at 10:24 PM | Comments (7)

April 22, 2008

For The Valkyrie Record...

I just want to make clear that while this blog is mentioned in the New York Times story on Valkyrie, I have nothing to do with Defamer's further take that UA is dead because of this film or with any of that incompetent, for-sale idiot Roger Friedman's blubbering about the movie.

There is one reason why, in spite of many people wanting me to go negative on the film, I finally wrote that "Valkyrie is dead." Two moves and the date they settled on.

UA will tell you that they love President's Day Weekend and that they have more open space there and that the fall is a graveyard. Great.

Meanwhile, I don't understand how the NYT let them off the hook by using two mid-September releases as "the period" that Valkyrie was scheduled for... because Valkyrie was scheduled for October, not September, which is where Academy Award nominee Michael Clayton was released in 2007 and Oscar winner The Departed was released in 2006.

But I digress...

I don't care whether the footage that's been seen so far look mediocre or even bad. I am happy to let a movie become a movie. Or a studio become a studio.

I have nothing against Cruise (whose nomination for Magnolia I called for immediately and who I have said repeatedly deserved the Oscar for Born on the Fourth of July) or Singer (being a fan of all of his work until Superman Returns) or UA.

And yes, nobody knows anything.

But the fact remains, a move from summer to fall to winter (particularly February) has never boded well. And in recent years, the movies that have "died" under those circumstances include Jumper, The Other Boleyn Girl, Charlie Bartlett, The Astronaut Farmer, and Freedomland.

Moreover, the entire list of $100 million grossers that have opened in February in the last ten years consists of Ghost Rider, Hitch, The Passion of the Christ, 50 First Dates, How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days, Daredevil, and Hannibal. 3 Romantic Comedies, 2 Comic Book movies, a horror sequel, and a once-in-a-20-years-phenom starring Jesus Christ. Do you see anything close to Valkyrie?

But anything can happen. Good luck to them. If the trailer that finally lands is brilliant, the movie will open. And if the movie is great, it will find an audience... even if it is unlikely to find a huge one in that slot.

Early buzz didn't make Snakes on a Plane massive or bury any number of crap films, including the horrible Batman & Robin, which had what was then a sixth-best ever opening with $42.8 million.

I just wanted to say, I would never make any of the silly, lazy reaches that The Inhuman Stain would. They are unfair and uninformed. But then again, what do you expect from a gossip columinst who works for a right-wing organization that stands against much of what he stands for and who "reports" what he is told to report?

PS - Do I need to point out that it was the NYT, not some blog, that "reported" on Tom Cruise's cameo in Tropic Thunder as though it was news?

At least Cieply didn't call me " a blogger."

Posted by poland at 10:09 PM | Comments (39)

BYOB - Just Another Tuesday

It's a funny feeling... up 3 touchdowns with 3 minutes to go... or up 6 runs going into the top of the ninth (knowing that if something bad happens, the bottom of the ninth is still there for your team)... and yet, there is always that queasy feeling.

Six weeks of anticipating this third or fourth "opening weekend" in the Democratic primaries... of course, there is way too much emphasis on this one event... unless it pushes one candidate out... which it won't.... and so, the endlessly asked question of what the numbers will mean in the big picture... to me, it means more negative campaigning by Democrats against one another... no good... this is why so many felt Clinton should have gotten out before PA, not because she should quit, but because exactly what is happening was anticipated... and if she wins by more than 5 points, it will continue, even worse, even if she loses North Carolina by 15 points or more... the Clinton people are already back on the "count Michigan and Florida votes" game after back burnering it for the last few weeks...

Anyway... I look forward to the night being over.... whatever happens... though I worry about early reports of suspiciously broken machines at 7:30 this morning becoming another big story... sigh...

You folks have other stuff on your minds... right?

Posted by poland at 11:26 AM | Comments (69)

April 21, 2008

What Becomes A Studio Most?

Disney had a little shindig on the lot today – its second major event this month – to announce Disneynature, their new distribution label, focusing exclusively on theatrical-release nature films. The label expands on the Disney tradition of nature films that goes back to Uncle Walt himself and his True Life Adventures TV series.

But it’s more than a new distribution arm and more than an aggressive step into a very specialized, but highly profitable area of the film industry that really hasn’t been exploited by the majors very much. It is also another great Disney branding opportunity, much as their animation announcement for the next five years was.

There is no other studio in Hollywood today that is anywhere close to as clear and committed to branding themselves as is Disney these days. One has to give Bob Iger and Dick Cook enormous accolades for making the decision and then using all of the company’s resources – built by Michael Eisner – to make their brand sing.

And it’s not just Disney proper. Iger has to get a lot of credit for branding on other platforms. For instance, the cross-branding of ABC Sports and ESPN is relentless and effective. At first, it just seemed like ESPN was picking up Monday Night Football. But we have seen the growth of the “ESPN on ABC” franchise in the last year and it is rather brilliant. Selling the idea that this one company has a platform that goes across networks and in the case of ESPN, onto multiple channels and platforms is just so smart.

But back to the animals…

Heading things up for Disney is Jean-Francois Camilleri, who has been a Senior VP for Disney Studios in France for years. Disneynature already has seven films in production, a few that have been in production for a while, including their first release, due at year’s end, Crimson Wing: Mystery of The Flamingos. In 2009, there will a theatrical release of a version – with a lot of new footage – of the BBC Planet Earth series, called Earth.

Also on tap are Big Cats, Oceans, Orangutans: One Minute To Midnight, Chimpanzee, and Naked Beauty, a slow-mo micro view of plants and their pollinators.

The plan is to release one film a year, though they may release double dips in 2009 and 2010. Talking to Camilleri, it was clear that he was in no rush. He estimates that there are about 20 serious, top-of-the-line wildlife filmmakers working in the world these days… and Disneynature seems to be working with about half of them right now.

There are no set plans about 3D and these films. They may go that way at some point, but Camilleri seems to be focused exclusively on whatever is the best possible delivery system for these films, which take years to produce, demand lots of innovation in production techniques, and cost less to make that almost anything else on the Disney slate.

I congratulate Disney on a great decision well executed (so far), but I have to wonder whether Disney taking such a strong position in this niche will create a bigger business for everyone or whether, as with the indie and docs businesses, the big company will make it hard for true indies in that arena to operate. We shall see.

The Earth trailer

Posted by poland at 10:10 PM | Comments (12)

20 Wks Of Summer Preview Week

Geeks and Girls have got to be drooling coming into the season. Not only is there an new Indiana Jones, but there is a great comic book hero coming along with some very good buzz, a new Batman from a hero director, a Star Wars that is supposed to look like a cartoon, and the return of two beloved geek colors, green and red. For women, Hollywood responded strongly to some female-driven hits in recent summers with no less than a half-dozen films aimed at them.

The big question mark of this summer is whether Sandler, Ferrell, Stiller, Carrell, Myers, and Pineapple Express is just too much boy comedy for one summer. It’s a lot… and I am not even counting Eddie Murphy, whose film seems to have some of that spirit with snot jokes, etc.

The biggest question mark around a single film is Speed Racer… a movie that delivers on all it wanted to be, but seems to be confusing every demographic with its marketing campaign. This is the great family film of the summer, with lots of unreal action, no deaths, no gun violence in which a bullet hits skin, no sex, lots of positive family messages, and one use of the word “shit.” But that won’t matter if no one knows. The example best pointed to is Tim Burton’s Charlie & The Chocolate Factory, which people were dubious about, but which ended up being a $200 million long-legged beauty. The problem here is that Speed Racer doesn’t have much time to get up to speed.

The rest...

And The Chart...

Posted by poland at 03:45 PM | Comments (91)

Burying The Lead

Claudia Eller ran a story in the LA Times today about how risky the deal for Indiana Jones 4 is for Spielberg/Lucas/Ford.

Ha ha ha.

She buried the lead down on Paragragh 17... and it's a doozy!

After the first $400 million in gross revenue, the S/L/F team get 87.5% of the revenue.

87.5 OMFGing percent!!!!

How about a little math?

Let's look at the last Indiana Jones movie... 19 years ago... which should be about half the gross of this year's film. The film did $474m worldwide. Taking 87.5% of rentals (at a conservative 55%), the S/L/F group is already into a payday of about $36 million.

Now… let’s assume that DVD and other ancillary revenue is being paid out based on net, not gross sales. If a $474 million movie were release in this era (like, say, 300 last year), you’re looking at least $200 million in net returns from on-theatrical. That’s another $175 million for S/L/F.

So… based on the last Indiana Jones movie, S/L/F would make $211 million.

Feeling risky yet?

Now… let’s look at the realistic numbers for this film. The last Indy film was 60/40 international, as this one should be. So let’s say that this one makes $300 million domestic and $450 million international. By Claudia’s numbers, that means that on theatrical alone, S/L/F are looking at $168 million in pocket.

Look at ancillaries of at least (least!) $300 million net, putting another $262 million in their pockets…

That’s $430 million.

The only profit participants who have ever made that kind of money are Lucas, who paid for the second set of Star Wars movies himself, and maybemaybemaybe Jim Cameron, whose Titanic grossed $1.8 billion worldwide, creating an economy of scale unlike any other film.

What’s the math for Paramount?

They spend about $300 million between production and P&A on the film. On the first $400 million, they earn a $50 million distribution fee, which combine with the rentals to get them somewhere near breakeven.

After that, they get 12.5% on everything. So using the same math as I just did, Paramount makes a profit of about $82 million. That’s a 25% return on the investment… on one of the biggest cash cows in movie history.

Now… I want to smack Brad Grey for making this horrible deal. But I can’t. Because there is no way there would be an Indy 4 without Paramount being willing to suck it up big time and to try to put the best face on it.

But let’s not bullshit ourselves. This is a NO RISK deal for Spielberg, Lucas, and Ford… or for Paramount. And it is a crap deal for Paramount, which will not, as with M:I 3, look at a loss while their star dances away with scores of millions, but which will have this huge success without much to show for it if anyone on Wall Street actually pays a little attention.

On top of that, a movie that they could have made a bigger profit on, Iron Man, has been funded by Marvel, according to reports. So there won’t be big profits there either.

The studio will only get their 10% distribution fee on Kung Fu Panda.

And they will share in whatever happens on DreamWorks' Tropic Thunder.

So even though I expect Paramount to compete for the top slot in distribution this summer, there is very little upside for the company financially.

And that, my friends, is a risky quest.

Posted by poland at 03:04 PM | Comments (5)

April 20, 2008

Why Is Paramount So Desperate?

The idea of a studio cable/satellite channel is a good one... I have been proposing it as the future for years now.

Bur reading this press release about Par/MGM/US/Lionsgate doing one channel all together just makes my head spin.

I completely understand by MGM and Lionsgate want to be in bed with Paramount. They have a different level of muscle. But what's in this for Paramount?

Okay, so the two companies have really big libraries... way too big to limit to one channel of programming. But Paramount has a huge library of their own, of both TV and film.

Universal already has the Sleuth Channel, pumping out library mystery and cop shows. They also have Universal High Def Channel, which shows both film and TV in hi-def.

MGM, actually, already launched the MGM HD Channel, showing the studio's library 24/7 in high-def.

Paramount is not only the studio, but a ton of classic TV that the studio made before they owned a network, plus MTV and VH-1 and Nick and other cable outlets that have been producing original product for years. If ever Paramount seemed in need of self-branding, it is now, in the face of the 98%-likely DreamWorks exit.

Variety reads this all as a slap at Showtime, which is owned by competing family company, CBS. (Another reason MGM needs this is that their Showtime pay-cable deal ends at the end of this year.) But while that may be cute and all... that's an awfully petty way to walk the walk.

Maybe the strategy is to lock in the MGM/UA and Liosngate libraries, which are two of the biggest after WB. (Lionsgate's library is huge... only its quality is in doubt... and not based on the Lionsgate release product, but on the kind of libraries the company has acquired over the years.) Maybe 3, 4, 5 or more channels is the longterm goal.

But keep in mind that another pay channel with its exclusives is not any kind of lock to be a hit. Showtime has forever been chasing HBO and others have been chasing Showtime.

What could be a "game changer" is branding The Paramount Channel, where 24/7 great Paramount product plays with a few select slots for originals.

This step feels... oddly careful.

Posted by poland at 04:08 PM | Comments (12)

It’s The Math, Stupid

Once again, I wish to speak to the anti-Obama-supporter rhetoric that seems to be the new favorite rhetoric to say that Obama’s success is somehow not as real as the numbers suggest.

This morning, it was Sam Donaldson, going into his defense of the ABC debate. The line, as it has been for The Clintons, is that Obama and his supporters didn’t like “hard questions.” But what I would say that the problem was not that these were hard questions that voters desperately wanted answers to… they were rehashing of the same side issues that have been chewed over for hour after hour after hour on all the political channels… slightly more by the right-wing channels who so want Hillary to win. (The grace note of the election… extremist right-winger billionaire Richard Mellon Scaife - said to be behind funding “the vast right wing conspiracy”- endorsing Hillary Clinton… need one really say more?)

The mentality that supports the idea that the first 45 minutes of that debate was good - aside from those who have an interest in seeing Obama getting hit with these same attacks over and over - is the same mentality that supported CNN running endless Anna Nicole Smith coverage... "it's what the audience wants"... and "If we don't do it, someone else will." And so it goes with spread legs.

One of Donaldson’s other chestnuts was that Obama supporters are rabid in suggesting that if Clinton was to win, it would be a theft from Obama.

And I am here to say, yet again, that it isn’t hysteria. It’s math.

Simply put, unless some miracle happens, Clinton will be behind in elected delegates, popular vote, and states won by the end of the primaries. So the only way for her to win would be for Superdelegates to decide amongst themselves that they want her to be the nominee instead of Obama.

I don’t much care what the logic is, short of him committing a crime. It this small group of insiders invalidates the primary voting for any reason, there is a good reason to see it as abusive. Period.

It is now like the Clinton idea of having a chance of overcoming the lead that Obama won… won… did not luck into… was not given affirmative action to get… is 100% real to people who just want to pretend that the math does not exist.

How can anyone keep from laughing when they trot out the argument that Obama is outspending Clinton – a known quantity with a history in Pennsylvania, a double-digit lead in polls as of seven weeks ago, and, by her own argument, almost two decades of very public life for this other candidate to overcome – in ad buys means that cutting her lead by more than 2/3 would still be a victory for her.

(poll charts from Pollster.com)

But we already watched people turn Texas, where she actually lost the delegate count because of the caucuses, into a “miraculous” victory, even though she barely won after sporting a 20+ point lead two months before the primary.

And Ohio, which she did win by a 10 point margin, was cut from a 17 point margin less than a month before that election.

It’s funny. “Obama obsessives” were not screaming that the Superdelegates should overturn the election results back on February 10, the last primary day in which Clinton led the results. Yes, folks, it’s been 2 months and 10 days that Clinton has been sniping at the Democratic Party leader from behind.

And here is another little snippet of math… since February 12, Obama has increased his lead on every single primary day, including the one that included Ohio and Texas. How big was Clinton’s lead on Obama, when she had one, after February 5? 5% of total delegates. How big is Obama’s delegate lead today? 4%

You want to look at how dominant Clinton is in the "big states?" The only ones she won with more than 10% of the vote were Ohio, MA, and NY. How about this? Obama has won 16 contests by 25% or more... more contests than Clinton has won, period. Clinton has won just 1 state by that margin... Arkansas.

Math!

I completely understand that journalists want to keep their winning story alive forever. And I understand that when the underdog becomes the frontrunner, there will be pushback from people, just by the nature of humans.

But this crap about Obama’s support being based on fairy dust or obsession or misogyny or magic… it’s enough already.

Yes, there are rabid supporters on both sides. And yes, when Obama doesn't respond, he seems arrogant to many and when he does, he seems to be equally as scummy as Team Clinton, America's favorite playground bullies... the kind of the people who kick you in the balls then mock you for making noise in response.

All I can think of right now is Hillary Clinton as a 90something, recalling her chat with God in recent weeks... "From now on we are enemies, You and I. Because You choose for Your instrument a boastful, lustful, smutty, infantile boy and give me for reward only the ability to recognize the incarnation. Because You are unjust, unfair, unkind, I will block You, I swear it. I will hinder and harm Your creature on earth as far as I am able."

Why are Obama supporters so angry lately? Because there is no rational argument for the behavior of The Clintons since they fell too far behind to be able to win by any means other than the Superdelegates reversing the vote.

You want to argue that Obama isn't that great a candidate? Terrific. Seven-plus years into his administration, people are still arguing about whether Bush was actually elected. Arguing is great. But math is math.

Posted by poland at 03:07 PM | Comments (52)

Weekend Estimates by Klady - April 19

The big story of the weekend is not The Wizards Of Kick Oz or Trying To Forget Segel's Penis, but Expelled being the widest doc opening ever, leading to being the third biggest doc opening ever. Ever.

Yes, all the Michael Moore movies will overshadow whatever the final number on this film is, but they all went into theaters in exclusives or, with Sicko, under 900 screens.

Expelled is pretty much assured of being amongst the Top Ten doc grossers of all-time before it's done... and passing Super Size Me and Winged Migration is not out of the question. Just this weekend's number makes it the #5 doc of the last two years, with Shine A Light and Grizzly Man both likely to be passed this week.

Is this the "Christian Movie" that Hollywood has stumbled chasing since The Passion Of The Christ... meaning more that audience than anything like those numbers? A good question, I think.

Meanwhile, on the Top Two front, neither film had a particularly strong Saturday upturn. Some would argue that Forgetting will outleg Kingdom, but I see no evidence of that, especially with Tribeca opener (snark, snark) Baby Mama and Harold & Kumar 2 landing next weekend, offering comedy options for both women and men. The best shot Sarah Marshall has is to be the date choice somewhere between the two new comedies. Meanwhile, Kingdom has a pretty-much open week until The Man of Iron lands a week later.

Posted by poland at 10:55 AM | Comments (51)

April 19, 2008

Friday Estimates by Klady - 4/19

Well... the good news for Judd Apatow is that Forgetting Sarah Marshall will gross more in its opening week than Walk Hard did in its entire run. The bad news is that aside from that one film, it is his worst opening as a producer since The Cable Guy.

Truth is, seems to me, that people are still ready to buy the Apatow franchises... but without a familiar name in the lead(s) or a clear idea (Universal did a good job of simplifying the film's narrative for the advertising campaign), the potential for misses increases each time out.

With Klady's $1.6 million split, the odds are less... but with the thinner separation in some people's Friday numbers, there is a chance that FSM will pass The Forbidden Kingdom by Sunday night because of a stronger Saturday night market for the romantic comedy vs the notoriously first-nighting action/martial arts crowds. On the other hand, if families decide Forbidden Kingdom is a safe bet for matinees, teh spread will be greater the other way.

The Forbidden Kingdom opening is on the high end of the Jet Li films and looks like it will beat The One to be his best ever start... of course, Jackie Chan ain't cicken feed. Still, this will be by far is biggest chop socky opening in this country, never having cracked a $10m opening without a pairing gimmick (The Tuxedo is on the borderline, but DreamWorks sold that as a family comedy and teamed him strongly with Love.)

This opening also happens to double what Lionsgate mustered for their first Jet Li effort, War. But even more importantly, it will be the company's third best non-Saw, non-Tyler Perry opening ever, behind only Fahrenheit 9/11 and the first Hostel.... and Hostel's $19.6 million is well in shooting range.

I must admit, I didn't see this coming for this film... but I am pleased for all involved.

88 Minutes is opening below even the lowest expectations... which goes to show 'ya that even the best marketing machine can plop out a dud when expectations are so low... aka The MGM Syndrome (pre-new- regime).

And it's hard to read the tea leaves on Where In The World Is Osama bin Laden?. A $1200 or so per-screen for opening weekend isn't a disaster. But it isn't very good under the weight of expectations. Morgan Spurlock clearly carries enough goodwill to get this kind of start, but the per-screen average for Super Size Me didn't dip this low until weekend 5 with twice as many screens. And the SSM opening weekend cracked $500k on just 42 screens.

The door on theatrical for docs has been closing, slowing lately after a swift shut, leaving only a crack open, after last summer. Between this and Young @ Heart, we could see an even tight squeeze to come...

Posted by poland at 01:23 PM | Comments (42)

April 18, 2008

Ebert Recovering From The Hip

Roger Ebert is recovering at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago after surgery to repair a minor hip injury. He tripped and fell at the Pritikin Center in Florida, where he had gone to continue physical therapy in preparation for his film festival. The staff at Pritikin was very helpful in their quick response to the incident.

"The show must go on!" Ebert says. "I am doing fine and if the doctors clear me, I will be there to welcome our guests, including Ang Lee, Paul Schrader, Richard Roeper, Richard Corliss, Sally Potter, Christine Lahti, Rufus Sewell, Timothy Spall, Michael Barker and many others. But whether or not I am there, the audience will see some amazing films."

The Roger Ebert Film Festival (Ebertfest) is sponsored by the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign April 23-27. Roger's wife Chaz says, "Please keep those thumbs up in the hopes that Roger will be there to celebrate the tenth year of his film festival. He has an indomitable spirit."

Posted by poland at 07:41 PM | Comments (7)

Box Office Hell - April 18, 2008

Posted by poland at 04:06 PM | Comments (17)

BYOB - Friday

There will be more to post later today... but here is some room to roam...

Posted by poland at 01:05 PM | Comments (20)

A Little Petty

A lovely friday afternoon addition to the bile... the WGA decide to "out" 21 members who went "financial core" during the WGA Strike. (Not on the list is George Clooney, who reportedly went fi-core before the strike.)

I don't object to the idea of allowing membership to know who went fi-core on an informational level, allowing members to draw their own conclusions. But what struck me about this letter is that is was stunningly self-righteous and shows no interest - as it essentially calls on Guild members to shun these 21 people - in explaining why these 21 people made the choice.

One big clue? The only one on the list who is not a soap writer is John Ridley.

Posted by poland at 01:00 PM | Comments (3)

Delayed Comments

I saw a complaint in Comments about someone's comments being delayed.

Once again, I will point out... all commenters who are "trusted" in the Movable type system are published without any limitations.

As it turns out, there were two commenters who had eight total comments held up by Movable Type. I don't check "unpublished comments" very often, because they are rare. The usual hang-up, when I find them, is what the system decides is too many http links in the comment.

All those comments are now published.

And if anyone EVER has a situation where the system doesn't publish the comment, PLEASE let me know and I will try to correct immediately.

I do not moderate, edit or remove comments. (There have been maybe 3 examples of edits - with a note from me, explaining - and I think 1 or 2 removals - again, with public explanation - over the years.) It is a core principle of doing this blog that the door is wide open to all voices who wish to comment. The only reason we have any limitations at all is that there are blog spammers that are relentless when you let down your digital defenses.

So again... tell me if you have a problem and don't assume you've been banned or are being censored. You are not.

Posted by poland at 12:56 PM | Comments (1)

Producing Sarah Marshall

Or rather, why didn’t someone?

Forgetting Sarah Marshall is not insipid. And it’s not very good, thanks to a conspiracy of poor direction, missed chances for bigger laughs, and what seems to be an increasing sense in ApatowVille that he and anyone around him shits gold.

It is, to cheap it out, forgettable.

What frustrates about this film is that it could have been on the level with some of Apatow’s best work, as director or producer. The premise is solid, even if it feels a bit like a retread of the recently retreaded The Heartbreak Kid. And there is some seriously smart material that would seem to cling naturally to a character of a rock star who is sometimes bright, sometimes as dumb as a rock, sometimes kind, and sometimes an unmitigated asshole. This is the kind of character that makes careers. But not for Russell Brand. Is it his fault or the director’s? We’ll never know.

Kristen Bell plays a simple caricature of a Hollywood actress, but it just sits there and doesn’t really go in any strong comedic direction. She’s not real enough to care about. And she’s not funny enough to care about. Like so much of the film, she is attractive and doesn’t really offend… but is, by the end, a “so what?”.

Mila Kunis is beautiful and feisty and a little sad as the “girl who might.” But there too… there is a backstory that at first seems too simple, then too complex, then a non-issue for the character.

And of course, Jason Segel is not a natural movie star. He is a decent looking guy with a hangdog face and no real reason for us to root for him.

You often hear in improv classes, “heighten it.” And in many improv classes and show, as well as in movies, they heighten it too much. Jokes get too broad and too easy. Ironically, this movie messes it up both ways, using Segel’s penis’ guest appearance 4 or 5 times… with nothing to get out of it other than a shock laugh. Zzzzzz.

But this movie needed a strong producer to say, “Choose subtle or broad… this material is not strong enough to get away with doing it both ways.” This is a movie that delights itself with an oral sex joke on a computer screen (as seen in commercials and the trailer) and then has an actual oral sex sequence (no, we don’t see it) that is so tame that it loses out on the reality of the moment. Really… what is it like for a man to change his mind about oral sex while he is receiving it? What is it like for the woman? If you are going to go there, you must go all the way with it. You don’t need to show it, but the audience needs to feel like they are seeing how real people behave.

The biggest sin is that we never really know why these two women have an interest in this guy. Is it just because he is a good guy? Is he a surprisingly good lay? Do they put up with him being a clumsy lay? Did he and Sarah really grow apart? Is Mila Kunis’ character really looking for a change in the kind of men she likes? Etc, etc, etc.

The genius of Superbad and The 40 Year Old Virgin and to a lesser degree, Knocked Up, is the defined story telling… beginning, middle and end. And like Walk Hard, this one is a bunch of ideas and jokes (many quite good) waiting on a real storyline or, in this case, someone who really knows how to shape them into the simple, bawdy romantic comedy it wants to be.

Finally… about the penis.

Remember American Pie? The breasts that made Shannon Elizabeth a celebrity were not just a boob joke. They were the obsession of the boys. And the twist that raised the joke higher was that she was so willing to offer them up to Jason Biggs. And then, that he had to perform.

The penis here is not an object of desire, repulsion or anything much… just something to be avoided… kinda. Even in the film, the penis gets little real response from the women who see it… and a big gasp and laugh from the audience. It’s nothing but easy. It is such a lame shock gag that it makes Divine eating dog poop seem like the most complex cinematic idea of the last 40 years.

Put it away.

And here is my advice for the very powerful Mr. Apatow… slow it down before you burn it out. Maybe the theory is that you only have so long, so milk it as much as you can now. But it is the people who milk it who lose it first. Put down the teat, let your friends fend for themselves for a while, and just do a couple of movies a year, maybe one with am obvious commercial component and one without.

I, for one, would prefer to enjoy your light for as long as you can deliver it and deliver it well.

Posted by poland at 12:00 AM | Comments (44)

April 17, 2008

They Love Whining In France...

Congratulations to 42West for spinning the ever-spinnable C. Nikki Finke for the second time on the Edward Norton/Hulk non-story in a very slow news week.

Just a couple of quick comments...

1) I defended Edward Norton and Mike DeLuca from attacks by an out-of-control Tony Kaye when the first big buzz about Norton sticking his nose in the editing room started on American History X. The only reason that there was "an Edward Norton cut" is because Tony wasn't happy releasing his first cut, which tested very well.

2) Norton is a wonderful actor.

3) Norton has had "issues" with his director and/or producers on almost every single film he has been in since, leading to a five year break from any studio work other than a supporting role behind a mask in Kingdom of Heaven. (And his performance, ween at greater length in the "director's cut" was as great as his truncated work in the release version was not.)

4) The Incredible Hulk will not sell more than $500,000 worth of tickets on the planet because Edward Norton is the star of the film. He may or may not have improved the film with his input, but as a movie star, he is now a non-starter at the box office.

5) No one who will go see this comic book movie has a major interest in whether it is artful. (Doesn't anyone remember Ang Lee getting slaughtered for bringing his artistic vision to the big green man?) They care if The Hulk is cool and in the spirit of the character they love. Period.

Edward Norton is, no doubt, a talent. But he needs to just put up, shut up, and write and direct his movies himself with small budgets until he earns bigger budgets with financial success as a writer/director. Or he could act like the movie star he could be and do that job instead of endlessly indulging his fantasy of what that job is.

In the meanwhile, by continuing to push out these stories of him being wronged (and really, who the hell else do you think wants you to know about it... unless this is some inverted plot to destroy Norton's studio viability once and for all?), he is doing exactly what studios will not put up with... an insider screwing his own movie that they paid him for before it is release. In other words, exactly what has kept Tony Kaye from working in this town since American History X.

Fortunately for Universal, stories in gossip columns won't have much effect on this film's gross either. But if you're looking forward to his next Universal film... you will likely have a long, long wait.

Posted by poland at 01:51 PM | Comments (23)

Once More... Briefly

I didn't read everything this morning, seeing how the ABC News presidential debate got slammed in the media.

I will not join the fray, though I have to wonder why someone thought it was okay to have a guy who owes his entire public career to The Clintons asking questions.

But what struck me was that with as many attacks as were thrown at Obama - four straight questions about the statistically insignificant Reverend Wright, a dumb question about a flag pin, plus that weak stuff about David Ayers, which sadly to me, forced Obama to point out the Bill Clinton had taken other Weather Underground members OUT OF JAIL with pardons - he just kept moving forward with answers that both made sense and for the most part, were not at all evasive. Half the time, I was watching Hillary with that "I can't believe that we can't hurt this guy" look on her face.

Bring on McCain.

Posted by poland at 01:37 PM | Comments (19)

A "So What" For Adults... But Someone Should Be Fired For Stupidity

I don't know what the national layout on the new Gossip Girl campaign is. I had noticed something online about an "OMFG" ad campaign, but the initial reaction seemed to be about the sexual images, not the phrase.

So as I drove over Barham yesterday, seeing a giant OMFG billboard suddenly hit me... Oh My Fucking God.

Someone at Time-Warner approved the use of anything inferring the word "fucking" next to the word "God?" Are they out of their fucking minds?

I am not language squeamish. In fact, I am a First Amendment absolutist (which is why I am so tough about the morality of publishing choices, as I do not believe in censoring the ideas, I believe in individual responsibility). But even I could see a reasonable person being extremely offended by the use of that phrase in ads… and not only ads, but ads aimed at teens and pre-teens.

I have noticed that everything I have seen on TV or on the ad space on AOL IM, etc, has been OMG, not OMFG… so maybe it is an “urban” campaign. There was the same thing with, I think, a Honda about a year ago, when the campaign called the car “FUGLY” in some markets and some other phrase (which I have completely forgotten) elsewhere.

But at least a car is being sold to adults.

I get where the idea is clever. And I get that teens and younger hear “The F Word” all the time and see R rated movies on cable and DVD too. But like the truly self-indulgent and unfunny (except as a shock laugh) exposure of Jason Segel’s penis FIVE TIMES in his new movie… it’s just unnecessary and childish. It’s not like South Park, where there is a purpose to the profane.

And from the perspective of Time-Warner and CBS stockholders, you have to really wonder what they were thinking. As long as we are in the Bush Administration, this is the kind of thing that draws six or seven figure fines… some examples of which CBS is already trying to fight off.

Posted by poland at 12:15 PM | Comments (39)

April 16, 2008

The Digital Copy Thang

I ran into two firsts this week regarding digital copies made available with DVDs.

First, I got a copy of Sony Home Entertainment's direct-to-DVD title, Diamond Dogs, starring Dolph Lundgren. Prominently placed on the cover, which is also tricked out with a 3D image, it says, "INCLUDES BONUS DIGITAL COPY."

This is, as far as I can tell, a first for Sony. I have seen it, as noted here, with WB in the past, including the last Harry Potter... which didn't work on iPod/Phone/Touch. And of course, Sony is pushing their PSP, so this download, which you can make to your PC, doesn't transfer to Mac, and apparently will not work on iPod/Phone/Touch.

One movie that will absolutely work on your iPod/Phone/Touch is Juno. The Blu-ray copy of the film comes with a second disc expressly intended as a digital download for PC, MAC and specifically, the "i"s.

This is the future... a purchase will be a purchase to all formats, becuase that is what the public wants.

I gather in regular Juno DVDs, there is a premium price to get a download. I think that's fair. $7 is not realistic. But bring it down to the cost of a DVD rental and it becomes a viable premium.

Posted by poland at 11:17 PM | Comments (12)

BYOB Again

Sorry... it's been one of those days.

I did get to make my April Fools joke real... more on that in time.

Here is some space for y'all. I should be posting more later tonight.

Posted by poland at 05:29 PM | Comments (45)

April 15, 2008

Will This Last Gasp Finally Kill Off The Clintons?

The saddest part of the Clinton attacks on Obama is not the damage they will do to the 98%-likely Democratic nominee. So far, the only damage seems to be landing on Hillary Clinton, who last time she threw everything she could against Obama, she lost half of her lead in Ohio and lost the delegate count in Texas, no matter how those primaries have been spun into "surprising success" by her supporters.

The sad part is that Clinton is now burning down her own legacy and her husband's legacy with it... and heeeee helped!

The issue of damage to the Democratic Party in the fall is becoming a secondary issue, to me, as we proceed. In many ways, this is another test of fire that helps Obama learn how to respond... an asset, not a detriment, primarily because of how Obama has responded. He has shown, by his actions, the kind of public man he is and will be. And that continues to work to his benefit.

The "bitter" fight is becoming the "Bosley Crowther" of this election season, long term. You will notice that those who want to attack Obama on this issue not only quote him narrowly (it's interesting that someone offering the ENTIRE context of the evening is getting no attention at all, even on The Huffington Post), but feel the need to tell us all what he "really meant," embroidering the comments with the kind of buzz words that the best liars love to trot out.

He is no messiah... but it becomes clearer and clearer... Obama is the start of The Future.

And if he fails, the sense of loss will be profound. But to me, it is far better to try... especially when the old school's creakiness becomes more and more apparent.

As with an inoculation against disease, Obama grows in stature... and the Clinton campaign becomes more and more the embodiment of a mosquito.... small, nasty, virulent, and ultimately, squashed.

The great story in all of this – and I get more and more enthusiastic about Americans as we proceed – is that people do get it. They do see past the lies and the spin. I hate to think like that considering the horrible choice they made in Bush in the last election. But Kerry was a terrible alternative… and that is what lost that election.

Obama is no Kerry.

Clinton is not bringing a gun to a knife fight… she is bringing a machete to the dinner table. And people are seeing this. They are looking at her, more and more, and wondering, “How are you going to butter that bread with that big thing? Why do you need a machete? Are you actually dangerous to us?”

What’s also sad is that there is a growing hysteria amongst some of the female Clinton supporters that most men who are anti-Clinton are simply anti-woman. And though race is a real issue with Obama, it’s informative that I have never heard an Obama supporter suggesting that a vote for Clinton and not for Obama is inherently anti-Black.

Of course there are misogynists and racists in the world who will not vote for one or both of these candidates on this basis. And yes, Clinton Hatred can be anti-woman. But a whole lot of Clinton Hatred is simply earned. Much of it was earned in the Clinton Administration, in which there were all kinds of bad behaviors that many of us on the left rationalized in the effort to keep their hero and his wife/ally on the pedestal. And the conduct of this primary campaign by Hillary Clinton has been every bit as hate-worthy as anything done by George Bush (his primary victim, McCain) or any of the worst offenders in recent political history.

If Hillary Clinton had any real conflicts with Obama, aside from him taking her nomination away from her, I would consider her actions in a different light. But all this bitter, rageful, misleading, party-back-stabbing crap has only one focus… winning. And simply put, we expect at least the illusion of a higher purpose in our candidates for President.

It is one of the great human tragedies. The things that put us in the position to have our greatest accomplishments are often our ultimate downfalls… especially when you have never had to resort to grace… when the success of a relentless youth becomes the recklessness of a relentless maturity.

Ironically, Hillary Clinton’s best shot at a presidency was to start as a Vice President, where she could learn to show grace. Oh the things she might have been able to do for our country had she ever learned to stop focusing only on herself and her ambition. But the phenomenon of Bill cannot be repeated… except, ironically, by Obama.

It’s been as long a two months as I ever recall experiencing in the middle of a primary season. The media has been embarrassingly wrong and the dangers of a blog-minded media when there is no news to actually report should be noted. I am greatly happy that it will soon end.

And I will be perfectly happy to see The Clintons return to semi-private life.

Posted by poland at 04:25 PM | Comments (63)

BYOB - Taxed

Posted by poland at 04:03 PM | Comments (27)

LAByrinth Keeping NY Theater Vital

Something really great is happening at the LAByrinth Theater Company in New York.

We caught up with The Little Flower of East Orange a few weeks ago. This time, it was Philip Seymour Hoffman directing a play by Stephen Adly Guirgus. The duo had successes before with Our Lady of 121st Street and Jesus Hopped the ‘A’ Train.

And once again, it was a show about a multi-racial universe that was not about political correctness, but about the simple truth of what the urban world looks like when you live in it

The rest...

Posted by poland at 12:25 AM | Comments (7)

LAByrinth Piece... With Stupid Comments

This entry about the very valuable LAByrinth Theater Co was hijacked in comments by insanity. I am not removing the comments... and I hope that any need to be "wacky" will continue to limit itself to this entry and not spill over into the new entry... even if there is not a single relevant comment on that entry.

A little respect, please...

Posted by poland at 12:23 AM | Comments (17)

Lunch With... Young @ Heart Director Stephen Walker

Last summer, I sat down with the director of Young @ Heart and another director with a doc at LAFF, Ondi Timoner (Join Us). And here is The Lunch...

Posted by poland at 12:15 AM | Comments (0)

April 14, 2008

Turn Out The Lights, The New Line's Over...

Today was the day. Variety ran the story first, at 3:30p.

Is there really anything more to say?

They're going to squeeze out a few summer movies - not the ones that Time-Warner sees real potential for - and anyone with a contract (and a few people managed to re-up just before the bloodletting began) will either run the string out at the Robertson offices, at home, or in reassignment to what is sure to be a less-than-thrilled-to-see-them Burbank.

New Line will never be New LIne without Shaye and Lynne. And that's fine. Old, rich, and able to get over their short-term embarrassment, I'm sure.

And so it goes... tears already shed.

It's been that kind of year. Fox Atomic... IFC theatrical... Sidney Kimmel...HD-DVD... and dead or dying, with more bodies to drop. Speaking of which, there is some buzz growing that Picturehouse - unmentioned in today's NL announcements - is not in as good a place with Time-Warner parents as they thought... take that with a big grain of salt, but take it as balance...

My biggest hope is that with New Line clearing out, someone will take this opportunity to knock down that eye sore of a 1968-style building on Robertson and without building a monstrosity, putting something worth looking at in its place.

Posted by poland at 06:04 PM | Comments (12)

As DVD Sales Sail Into The Sunset...

Relased on DVD less than 2 months ago... though you can also buy this on Amazon.com brand new for $14.99.

And next month... buy the still-left-over AG DVDs for under $7.

For all the hand-wringing over internet delivery, the industry, just as it did by pushing the front-loading of theatrical release and making the marketing costs beyond sanity, is killing the goose so it can squeeze out the last golden egss all on its own.

Posted by poland at 04:48 PM | Comments (20)

Bribes To See A Summer Screening?

Posted by poland at 01:38 PM | Comments (24)

Digital Cinema Spin

There is a story in Variety today that reports the facts, but misses the real subtext. The journalism of it isn't my issue.

The story, as it did at ShoWest, ties Digital Projection to 3D... which is a bit of a scam. 3D is cool, yes. Avatar and animation are the cash cows that are being used to force the issue, just as the Star Wars trilogy was offered as a motive a decade ago.

The truth is simpler. The cost of digital projectors got low enough and the belief in sustainability got high enough that the studios - which stand to save billions every year - have decided that it's in their interest to pay their share for a technology that will benefit them a whole lot more than it will benefit the theater owners.

The story today is really about the studios playing games after having laid the public groundwork back at ShoWest. They got the media to sell the "3D is the future" con so that if it falls apart, it looks like the theaters owners are taking something away from the public, who they are scared of losing, even though the reality is that they are still showing up in huge numbers that ticket sales are dropping minimally in the face of so many alternate options for the delivery of same films. And now, behind the scenes, the studios are trying to force theater owners to pay for more than the offer that was on the table just months ago.

And in this story, NATO is pushing back and saying, "if you don't pay for it, it will not happen... here's a timetable... now YOU deal with Cameron and Katzenberg!" AND Lasseter, who just announced that all Pixar and Disney CG films will be available in 3D.

But in the end, this has very little to do with ten 3D releases a year... and has a lot to do with cold, hard cash. The studios want to squeeze a billion or so from the exhibitors over the next five years. The exhibitors have been saying for a long time that they are happy to have these projectors, but they will not make more money because of them, so the studios need to pay. And of course, the studios will be in profit on digital projection alone in less than 4 years.

In other words... it's the same old negotiation right before "escrow" closes..

Posted by poland at 10:30 AM | Comments (10)

Yet ANOTHER Speed Racer Trailer

Posted by poland at 12:05 AM | Comments (4)

April 13, 2008

Critical

We have all be reading and writing about the endangered film critic lately.

Here's a story about one that isn't in career trouble, but whose health is in danger... because he has no health insurance, which brings things full turn, as so many writers who are internet-based don't have benefits. (For the record, MCN has considered coverage for our writers, but all of our regulars are covered by other means.)

Portland's DK Holm's has "a very treatable case of esophageal cancer," but needs help paying for that treatment. Even if it is 10 bucks apiece, if enough of us step up, he should have what he needs.

I am not one to post appeals to anyone taking money out of their pocket, invoking humanity and/or guilt. But in this case, there seems to be the rare opportunity to have a real effect on what should be a productive future in an arena we all care about.

A web page with info on an upcoming benefit for Holm in Portland, as well as an address where donations can be sent is here.

Posted by poland at 11:46 AM | Comments (21)

Klady's Weekend Estimates - Pre Tax '08

The number that really struck me this morning was for La Misma Luna/Under The Same Moon, which has quietly grossed over $10 million now and should settle in to the box office neighborhood of Y Tu Mama Tambien and Volver.

For some reason, The Weinstein Co, which was a partner in the buy of the film, keeps getting credit for releasing the film... but the film is, in fact, being released by Fox Searchlight domestically. This is a rare foreign language release for the studio, having got their collective hand slammed in the money door three times in 2003 with Lucia, Lucia, L'Auberge Espagnole, and The Dancer Upstairs, which collectively earned $5.5 million... not to mention the Night Watch/Day Watch combo, a record-breaker in Russia and good for less than $2m domestically.

So congratulations are in order for Searchlight.

The news is not quite as cheerful with Young @ Heart, the studio's first doc release under Peter Rice.

There were only three $1 million-plus docs last year, including Sicko... the other two did $1.4m and $1.1m. And there were only four more that did over $500,000. The Oscar winner, Taxi to The Darkside? Under $250k.

This year, you might include the Stones concert film as a doc...but really, should we? Is the Vince Vaughn comedy tour really a doc? Because no other docs this year have hit $250k.

Young @ Heart may pass that number. So is that a hit? Or a miss?

Tough sledding.

Posted by poland at 10:24 AM | Comments (19)

April 12, 2008

There Will Be Blu: Episode 2

I wrote a piece on Blu-ray and There Will Be Blood based on Stu Van Gogh's near ear removal over the lack of great extras on this week's DVD release... which then vanished when the servers were "maintained" last night.

TWBB is the next to last Oscar title to land on DVD (Juno arrives this week) and the only one not available in hi-def.

Is PT Anderson waiting for the best DVD format to be available for release to offload his goodies? The Blu-ray of TWBB is actually set for release... in Europe... on July 7. Of course, Miramax owns international on the film. And Paramount's Sweeney Todd, which was just released in the US with no hi-def, is due on Blu-ray via international owner WB on May 19. Both are, of course, Region 2. Argh.

Or is Paramount just not ready for Blu, either by contract or by being set up to produce product? Paramount had hinted about a Blu-ray release, with an HD release no longer viable. But there has been no clear indication that Paramount has been released from their HD obligations... obligations that were paid for with many millions of dollars.

And then there is this...

There were 32 Paramount Blu-ray releases before the deal got done. Recently, 11 of those titles went back on sale on Amazon.com. (The other have a post-first-purchase EBay life.)

Meanwhile, Universal's next big DVD release, Charlie Wilson's War, has no current HD plans indicated in any market in any format at all.

Posted by poland at 09:24 PM | Comments (28)

And...

The Speed Racer International Trailer landed on the web site, with no family (except... is that a spoiler?), more action than any of the other trailers, and an Asian element that starts to show that The Wachowskis made this one with the world clearly in mind.

What is also beginning to become clear is that instead of feeling encumbered by the limitations of CG, they pushed the form in a way that reaches past the idea of reality. Pulling a frame for this entry was almost impossible, as the movement is so much of what the images are about.

The website also has a steering wheel POV that allows you to click on each of the Mach 5's buttons to see what it will do, like replacing its own tires, sawblading other cars, etc.

I am getting more excited. And hoping not to be dissapointed.

Posted by poland at 06:29 PM | Comments (17)

Speed Reading

As for Speed Racer, IO is right to say that The Second Weekend of the Summer looks crappy on paper.

What is unique about it, however, is that there is a limited history of major releases on that date.

The Matrix Reloaded - which opened to $92 million and is still in the Top Ten All-Time for May, with $282 million at the box office – opened May 15, a day before where The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian sits this year.

Only three films have cracked $100 million from that slot (unless you count Deep Impact): Twister ($242m), Troy ($144m) and Daddy Day Care ($104m).

But you’re looking at the “big” films in the slot being Georgia Rules, Poseidon, Monster-in-Law, Troy, and Daddy Day Care over the last five years.

WB is the only company that has tried to mine the slot with more-expensive films… and went 50/50 in the last five years after having a phenom success with Twister in 1996.

This all brings us to the specific question of Speed Racer. And what history tells us about May is that if you have the movie and the marketing, you open. If you don’t have the movie and the marketing, you don’t. There were three $115 million-plus openings last May, all within four weeks.

But does Speed Racer have the movie or the marketing?

Well, the release campaign just started. The film is still unrated, which suggests that they are still dealing with the nitty gritty of either PG or PG-13.

Personally, I love the outdoor. I am excited about the visual style of the film. I am sure that The Wachowskis will respect the simple central story of the cartoon… and ramp up the Oedipal subtext in a way that only we adults will notice.

Really… it could be a $50m/$225m-total hit or a $38m/$105m mixed bag or anywhere in between. Will it play like a family comedy, nearly animated, battling mostly with Prince Caspian until Kung Fu Panda lands in June? Will it become a teen phenom? Will it miss the imagination of the target audience completely?

But the story will be opening, opening, and opening. Will people want to go see this movie on a big screen that first weekend?

There is a clear, oft-repeated dubiousness amongst geeks. But they are not the key here. The TV spots will be… and they really aren’t rolling out heavy for another week or so. And then, we’ll get a better sense of where it’s all going.

But as for the date, I am much more worried about the brain damage involved with throwing The Love Guru and Get Smart onto the same date.

Posted by poland at 05:14 PM | Comments (19)

Iron Money

I’m starting work on my Summer Preview for next week on MCN, but with all the Iron Man talk, I thought I would offer this much now.

The First Weekend of Summer became the first weekend of May in 1998 with Deep Impact, the first movie to open in that slot to gross over $100 million in history. (Technically, it was actually the second weekend, with May 1 being treated as April fringe and DI opening on May 8... but perception/reality... oy.)

Of the nine films in the slot since then, only 3 have made less than D.I.’s $140 million domestic – Mission:Impossible III, Van Helsing, and the lowest grosser of them all, Kingdom of Heaven. All three have been seen as flops, fairly or not (not the point of this piece).

So, $140 million is The Success Bottom for that slot.

The six “successful films” in that slot, since DI, are: The Mummy ($155m), Gladiator (188m), The Mummy Returns ($202m), X2: X-Men United ($215m), Spider-Man 3 ($337m), Spider-Man ($404m).

You notice the obvious… half of the films are sequels.

The other three are, arguably, category launchers. The Mummy used Big CG and the template of old-fashioned films that has not been seen since Indiana Jones signed off to relaunch a genre. Gladiator was the first major sword & sandals film in a generation. And Spider-Man became the first real CG superhero film, starring the 3rd biggest comic book character of all time (while WB flailed around trying to get Batman and Superman back in business), with a nice-boy teen hero, made gently for four-quadrant accessibility.

So the question is… is Iron Man a category launcher?

I don’t think so.

In fact, I think Paramount has acknowledged in its marketing choices that it is not.

Moriarty’s mom may be into it (if that was him posting as "Drew" at Anne Thompson’s blog), but do you see any reason why teen girls are going to pay to see this film? Their moms? (And that is without accounting for Made of Honor, which will be the cause of many date fights that weekend.)

Irony and blasters are great for geeks and teen boys. But Downey, a special actor, is not the kind of star that will make Iron Man a must see for the smarty set.

Now… that said, the movie will open to over $50 million. Let’s not forget that Van Helsing, for all the shit Universal ate on it, opened to $47 million, the best opening for a non-sequel or non-Spidey 1 in that slot. Kingdom of Heaven is the only movie in the last seven years NOT to open to at least that much.

Flip side, the only movie to open to more than $86 million in that slot have been the Spider-Man films.

So, while stats can be wrong, there is, to my eye, a 90% or better chance that Iron Man will open between $50 million and The Mummy Returns’ $68 million.

Is that HUGE?

If you say so.

It IS solid. And that is the advantage of that slot. You have the open space to get a big start.

And then, it’s about legs.

The best legs in that slot in the last decade belong to Gladiator, whose opening weekend was just 18.5% of its domestic gross. Spider-Man 3, with an opening representing 44.9% of its total gross is the worst (though it was by far the biggest opening). Very roughly, that means that these films do between 2x opening and 5x opening. Most are 3x to 4x.

So do the math. If Iron Man does $60 million on opening weekend, $200 million is about the best that they can expect as the domestic gross, unless the film becomes a true phenom.

Last summer, that would have made it the #8 film. Is that HUGE? Or just good?

Ironically, #8 and #9 last summer (The Simpsons Movie and Knocked Up) were HUGE with less of a domestic gross… because they were so cheap to make.

Like I said at the top, I haven’t laid out the whole summer yet, so I won’t project anything more onto Iron Man… other than a gross around $170 million.

And before someone gets all uppity about that… remember… for a non-sequel in that slot, it is only behind Spider-Man and the extremely long-legged Gladiator.

And fighting off the other side, I would argue now that anything over $150 million domestic for Iron Man is a success. And that’s the problem with all the “HUGE” talk. The film can open to $60 million and do $155 million and still be branded a “miss” by the boo birds… and that’s really unfair.

Posted by poland at 04:02 PM | Comments (30)

Friday Estimates by Klady - 3/12/08

So what happened on Prom Night?

1. The best marketing materials for girls in this genre since The Ring.
2. Tracking doesn't get teens... just doesn't... why do people still get surprised?
3. Did I mention the marketing materials?

Street Kings will also do better than its best estimate for the weekend. See answer #2 above... and add penises.

Smart People will also be on the high side of estimates... and this is when star power does matter... when a $3.5 million opening looks good.

And those people who are going to Smart People? Many of the same adults who went to go see Leatherheads... and told their friends that they could wait until DVD.

Posted by poland at 10:55 AM | Comments (18)

Sorry...

I forgot that we were having maintenance last night from our server company... I should have put up a note.

In the process, I also lost a new entry... argh... which I will rebuild later today.

Meanwhile... the sound of a lie to come being danced around...

Posted by poland at 10:52 AM | Comments (0)

April 11, 2008

The Audacity Of Truth... Redux

It's been a few days since I have mentioned politics in this space. But once again, someone trying to make evil from an honest voice has reared its head.

Maybe people will disagree. The Clinton and McCain campaigns certainly have. And The Huffington Post has responsibly - in spite of their "blogger," who has now made two heavily promoted nasty posts out of one California fundraiser that press was not invited to attend, report on, or record - offered the tape recording that his quotes were pulled out of, along with a full transcript.

Here is what he said -

The truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Um, now these are in some communities, you know. I think what you'll find is, is that people of every background -- there are gonna be a mix of people, you can go in the toughest neighborhoods, you know working-class lunch-pail folks, you'll find Obama enthusiasts. And you can go into places where you think I'd be very strong and people will just be skeptical. The important thing is that you show up and you're doing what you're doing.

Is that not the cold, hard truth?

I guess you could spin the mention of religion as some form of attack, but coming from a man who has spent the last six weeks being beaten up because he was "too close" to his retired pastor, it would be stunning to read this - and the guns and other "take to ground" choices - as anything other but a fair look at how people behave when they feel threatened.

The first thing I thought when reading this full transcript was that Michael Moore MUST come out for Obama now, because he just was quoted saying very much what Moore has been saying in ALL of his films. Fear creates separation. Hope must overcome cynicism and that fear to become trusted.

OF COURSE people in Pennsylvania hit by closings and unemployment are bitter... what the hell else would they be?

I was also reminded of that scene in Primary Colors, where the Clinton character speaks at a closed or closing mill, and is reminded that they can take a curse word or two there. This is yet another example of Obama playing on exactly what Bill Clinton played on when he was running for office... offering hope to people who suffered... who are angry... who are bitter... who are scared.

These comments are exactly WHY I support Obama... not why I would call him elitist. He is as honest a man as any politician I know of… matched only, perhaps by McCain, whose politics make him less attractive as a candidate to me. And maybe some people in PA - exactly the ones he is speaking about - will use this as excuse to withdraw further. Or this could be a replay of the Wright speech, which pushed Obama forward in the end, not backwards.

But I'm sure some of you will disagree...

Posted by poland at 03:58 PM | Comments (39)

Box Office Hell - 4/11

Prom Night reference
The Messengers - $14.7m - 2/2/07
When a Stranger Calls - $21.6m -2/3/06

Posted by poland at 02:43 PM | Comments (11)

April 10, 2008

A Must See

Tarsem's The Fall is a deeply flawed piece of storytelling... but if you are at all serious about cinema, you MUST see the film on a big screen during its upcoming run via Roadside Attractions, supported by "Presented by" credits from Fincher and Jonze.

Tarsem made this movie on his own dime, shooting for years around his schedule of commerical shoots in the world's most exotic locations. And piece by piece, it is frickin' breathtaking. The story device - a sick soldier telling the story to a little girl in order to trick her into getting him drugs that he wants to use to commit suicide - is iffy, though in the end, the emotion works. But the tale, which mixes The Wizard of Oz, Baron Munchausen, and other admitted tall tales leads to exception bouts of visual imagination unlike you will see in all but a small handful of films.

So... see it.

Unless your date is studying film at Columbia, you may not get laid until you wake him/her up and get her to another movie. But if you love the visual, you owe it to yourself to suck this one back.

The trailer... and my review from Toronto '06

Posted by poland at 06:25 PM | Comments (19)

Home Again... Naturally.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh...

There is something great about being home.

And now, the work begins. Time to get my head back into things in a real way.

I am thrilled that Michael Wilmington has started working with us at MCN. And his review of Shine A Light has all the passion and detail that has made him one of America's best.

Get ready for a load of new stuff in the next week as I ermerge from my traditional post-Oscar coma...

Posted by poland at 04:58 PM | Comments (8)

April 09, 2008

Drives Me Crazy

I have read at least 3 news stories today quoting numbers that are used to support an argument by the article's author. But while people are busy whining about blogs, how is it that they - and more importantly, their editors - getting that all stats are simply not the same.

An AOL poll about television is, a) based on people who are using AOL's site, b) based on a site, AOL, that is owned by Time-Warner, not an unbiased place to start, 3) naturally manipulated by the news, views, and ads on that AOL site, and 4) based on people who opt-in, who are notoriously unreliable.

I didn't run into it today, but my friend, Anne Thompson, runs stats from Fandango each week as though they are news. They are not. Of course there is a natural tendency for more ticket sales to reflect more popular movies. But audiences that buy tickets online, people who hang out on Fandango, the theater chains that Fandango serves, race, age, and sex all are variables that are not in any way counted in this "survey." With all due respect, it is nothing but a slightly interesting artifact.

And in today's NY Times, a lazy reading of the MPAA materials about the last year at the box office leads to a quote of a MPAA "stat," that is actually from the portion of their report that was based on a survey. There is a HUGE difference from a hard fact, based on hard numbers, and a number coming out of a survey... especially when movie surveys come up misleading time after time after time, based primarily on the questions asked, not any ill intent. (As I often comment... could YOU really tell someone on the phone tomorrow how many movies you will go to a theater to see this summer? Without looking at a release chart and estimating? Speaking for myself, I could see 20 mainstream releases... or 30.. or more... in the 16 weeks of the summer season.)

This really isn't about the constant backhanding of the web with cheap disdain... though that raises my fury. It really is about reporters and editors not paying attention to where their information is coming from. Sometimes a banana is just a banana. Sometimes, it is a soda or a pie or a penis or some pudding. That detail matters if you seek to make a legitimate argument and not just to support your position with any "survey" or "stat" that's handy.

Posted by poland at 11:38 AM | Comments (9)

It Should Be Noted...

There is no mention of Paramount anywhere on the trailer of Tropic Thunder, as there was none on The Ruins.

There is a Paramount tag on materials for Kung Fu Panda, though the distributed by card for Paramount is stuck on the back side of the trailer, not up front.

If you want to read the tea leaves - though the tea is read, cold, and ready to move along - these are much stronger messages than a lot of the gossip that floats around. Credits are a powerful public comment taken quite seriously because the lack thereof can be embarrassing... just recall how Par Vantage ended up forcing its logo onto No Country For Old Men publicity and marketing materials domestically and gave space to Miramax on There Will Be Blood as well.

Posted by poland at 11:10 AM | Comments (4)

BYOB - Beware The Nines Of April

Travel day.

What other familiar phrases could use refreshing?

And what else do you have to say?

Posted by poland at 09:44 AM | Comments (28)

Mrs Coen & God Come To Broadway... Coo Coo Ca Choo

The experience of Odet's The Country Girl, starring Morgan Freeman, Frances McDormand, and Peter Gallagher, and directed by Mike Nichols was interesting.

The show is still in previews, though the many lost lines during last night's performance was off-putting, in that the show is about a guy who may or may not be able to remember his lines in a play. But that, I can forgive.

What struck me really odd was the choice of this show for this remarkable group of actors. It's a decent show... but it's a tiny, minor piece, more famous for who played the title role (Grace Kelly) than the show itself. The story is, basically, about an aging actor who lost his career after falling off the wagon hard, who gets a second chance. His wife, The Country Girl, is either a manipulative shrew or a patient, generous, supportive soul, depending on the perspective of the scene.

Thing is, in 2008, nothing this woman does seems remotely out of line, even when we are on the shrew tack.

And it is also worth noting that you can feel the audience connect mostly with the dozen laugh lines in the show... and the couple of big speeches. But the cast sparkles as an ensemble when they are funny.

Each actor gets at least one bite of scenery leveling dialogue... and all deliver. But by the second act of the show, I kept finding myself considering how much better this group would have been supported by a script from the same period, but with some intense energy. His Girl Friday, the boy-girl redo of The Front Page is what kept hitting me. McDormand can do anything, in my book. But here, she is quite muted. And Freeman is a force of nature, though he never seemed very relaxed on the stage, aside from in a couple of longer dialogue runs. Gallagher gets better and better on stage, where his looks are not as distracting to casting people.

What it felt like to me was the third show in a four show season of a theater company. If we had seen Freeman's Cyrano to McDormand's Roxanne and McDormand's Hildy to Freeman's Walter and then The Country Girl, it would have been a pleasant evening of theater... and a great short breath before the season close with Freeman's Higgins to McDormand's Dolittle and Gallagher's Pickering.

It's not the mess that the recent Cyrano on Broadway was. Nichols delivers and the set is spectacular in its understatement. But in the end, the show is just... okay.

This is a season with a lot of straight plays... most of which have already exited, stage right. Survivors include the deservedly Pulitzer-winning August: Osage County and Mamet's laughfest, November. Many shows were, to be fair. limited engagements. A Catered Affair, which is really a play with a few songs, is about to get sadly slaughtered (the intention is good... the show is missing any excitement... Light In the Piazza without the Italians). Cat On A Hot Tin Roof is black, Macbeth is Patrick Stewarted, and Les Liasons Dangereuses is a Roundabout with Oscar-nodded Laura Linney.

Things aren't much more exciting on the musical side, with Cry-Baby a possible teen girl hit, but not half the show that Hairspray was, and the only originals coming in are the oddball Passing Strange and In The Heights. South Pacific, Gypsy, and Sunday In The Park With George are bone fide revival hits.

Funny season.

Posted by poland at 09:10 AM | Comments (12)

April 08, 2008

Mid-Disney

We are at half-time of Disney's first animation futures presentation since the Pixar merger... and so far, it' a very impressive.

30 minutes of the near-silent Chaplinesque Wall-E (from Pixar)... a look at King of the Elves for Christmas 2012.. a 4-film Tinkerbell direct-to-DVD franchise... and an amazing CG Rapunzel from Disney for Christmas 2010... and Up, an adventure comedy about an old man and a scout fulfilling his promise to his wife, that will arrive in May 2009 and be Pixar's first 3D release.

The second half of the presentation opened with Bolt, the homeward bound comedy with the TV star dog who thinks he really can do all those cool tricks. Disney wasted no time adding Miley Cyrus to the November release's line-up, along with Travolta as the voice of Bolt, who isn't heard speaking by humans. I was surprised at how little finished material was offered with just six months until release, but Disney has used in-process footage to give people an insider feel before. This group was made up of international exhibs, partners, liscencers, journalists, and Disney family. Another note on Bolt... it will launch Disney's new mandate that all CG animation will be available in 3D.

Continued, 7:43p pdt - One of the notable things about this event was the emphasis on women/girls. Christmas 2001 will see the first Pixar fairy tale, The Bear & The Bow, written, produced, and directed by women, set in Scotland, with a strong female hero. The aforementioned Tinkerbell series looked to be at about the visual quality of A Bug's Life... not quite good enough for theatrical... but quite impressive for direct-to-DVD.

But most surprising - and generally unspoken about in the presentation - is Christmas 2009's hand-drawn musical The Princess & The Frog... set in New Orleans, built on jazz, blues, dixieland, and zydeco music... and starring a mostly black cast, led by Anika Noni Rose as The Princess and already sporting two Randy Newman songs. (If you don't know, Newman is one of the great musical chroniclers of American cities and a master of southern styles, especially the deep south.)

But let me emphasize... a black Disney princess... in a story that did not necessarily require a black star. On the very face of it, it is a daring move to clear and start walking the steps that the currently held-from-sight Song of the South once walked. The clearer reference is The Jungle Book, the racial politics of which have not raised ire lately, though they could. For me, this is the most eagerly anticipated film.

The afternoon event was introduced by Dick Cook, who intro'd Ed Catmull, who handed off MC duties to John Lasseter, who intro'd each of the teams behind each film. (Andrew Stanton, of Wall-E, was off recording the closing song for the film with Peter Gabriel, but offered a tape intro.)

What was most impressive in the day was not only that there didn't seem to be a dud in the group, but that Disney now has a five-year roll-out set in public stone. Five new Pixar movies in the summer, which became their preferred slot after The Incredibles. One Pixar movie set for Christmas. (And all the films except for this November's Bolt is listed as a "Christmas" release... a release date strategy shift for the studio if it holds and they don't slide back to November.) And four new Disney films, all fairy tales except, again, for Bolt.

The only downside on can see is that there are no Brad Bird or John Lasseter movies on the schedule.

Also notable is that of all 10 theatrical features announced, they all have humor, but the only two that seem to have the smart-ass tone that has been DreamWorks' territory are Cars 2 and Bolt... Disney's first and Pixar's last.

There was almost nothing to see, aside from concept materials, for any of the films past Christmas 2009, but there is a Classic Disney feel to almost everything we saw and a real sense of leadership at the helm of this boat. And you couldn't really ask for more than that.

The press release after the jump....

THE WALT DISNEY STUDIOS ROLLS OUT SLATE OF 10 NEW ANIMATED MOTION PICTURES THROUGH 2012

DISNEY'S "FAIRIES" DIRECT-TO-DVD FRANCHISE WILL ALSO DEBUT

New York, New York -- April 8, 2008 -- The Walt Disney Studios unveiled a diverse and ambitious slate of 10 new animated feature films from Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios to be released through the year 2012 at a New York press conference held today by Dick Cook, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios, and John Lasseter, chief creative officer for Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios.

The line-up includes new films from Disney and Pixar's accomplished team of filmmakers, and features vocal performances by such top celebrity talents as John Travolta and Miley Cyrus ("Bolt"), Reese Witherspoon and Billy Connolly and Emma Thompson ("The Bear and the Bow"), Anika Noni Rose and John Goodman ("The Princess and the Frog"), as well as return engagements by Tom Hanks, Tim Allen and the rest of the "Toy Story" vocal ensemble ("Toy Story 3"). The roster of new animated features includes six new films from Pixar Animation Studios, four from Walt Disney Animatio