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May 31, 2008

Friday Estimates by Klady - 5/31

What can one say about Sex?

Mighty niche plays are poorly predicted by tracking.

It's not going to quite be The Simpsons, but like The Simpsons, a TV series showed its ability to draw on opening day... even if, in this case, the movie sucks like Samantha.

What's truly remarkable... even if Indy opened on Thursday and even if Sex doesn't follow with similar muscle... is that if Klady's number is right, Sex had a better opening day number than Indy... not to mention Rings: 2 Towers and Bourne Ult.

Indy took, perhaps, a bigger than expected hit this Friday... but as there is little chance that families are going to spend the rest of the weekend at Sex, there may well be an uptick as the weekend progresses.

Universal got the $20m opening for The Strangers... which is about right for that title, even if it was released by Screen Gems, known for releasing those films, and whose campaign looked so much like a SG Special.

Posted by poland at 08:28 AM | Comments (70)

May 30, 2008

BYOB - No Sex, Please

Have I mentioned... I Love New York.

No crane fell on me this morning, but I have been having a lovely day seeing some of my favorite people and places... making up for the painfully unambitious revival of A Chorus Line that we saw last night. (It did make me think that a thoughtful revival of that show and/or Hair could really be great right now. And bring on the John Osborne plays... angry young man is "in.")

More to come, including a radio spot, another studio meal, and Passing Strange.

The sun is out, the city is alive, and any conversation not involving four women trying to live an era that happily concluded years ago is exciting.

How about you?

Posted by poland at 01:35 PM | Comments (39)

S&TC Is A Internet Ticket Sale Phenom

The MovieTickets.com Top 10 Pre-Sale List of All-Time
1. "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith"
2. "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"
3. "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
4. "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour"
5. "The Matrix Reloaded"
6. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
7. "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
8. "Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones"
9. "The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers"
10. "Sex and the City: The Movie"

A list that is interestingly missing six - Spider-Man 3, Shrek The Third, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, X-Men: The Last Stand, Indiana Jones IV, and Iron Man - of the Top Ten Openings of the last 3 years (before that, it would seem unfair to expect even the biggest openers to break into this list, as the technology was young). This might be because Fandango had a significantly larger number of the theaters playing those films. But it's still interesting.

And note that amongst some of the biggest openings of all time, their #4 biggest pre-sale led to "just" a $31.1 million opening.

So what does the pre-sale success of S&TC mean?

I would argue that grown women committed to going and utilized their credit cards more aggressively than teen boys do... as they did in order to take their daughters to see the Miley Cyrus concert film.

What do you think?

Posted by poland at 01:19 PM | Comments (51)

There Will Be Tie-Ins

**MEDIA ALERT**
Is your betty™ ready for Sex & the City?
betty - color for the hair down there™ is giving S&TC fans another reason to look forward to Friday, May 30th!

WHAT: betty – color for the hair down there™, the hottest new beauty product on the market, is giving Sex & the City fans another reason to look forward to Friday, May 30th! Don't miss “The betty™ Girls” at Lincoln Square’s AMC Loews Theatre between 7pm – 10pm! In attendance will be Nancy Jarecki, Philanthropist and CEO/Founder of the innovative beauty company bettybeauty, inc. with several other celebrity appearances! In addition to “sexy” treats and promotional gifts, “the betty™ girls” will be giving away specially created ‘betty – color for the hair down there™’ products commemorating the unforgettable Samantha Jones “bozo” episode! No “Sex & the City” fan will want to miss out on this memorable event!

Unlike the famous "bozo" moment, when Samantha Jones attempted to cover a gray hair “down there” with off-the-shelf hair dye and wound up a “bozo” color orange, betty – color for the hair down there™ is the first no-drip color dye, specially formulated to match your hair below with your hair above, cover gray or just have fun!

WHO: “The betty™ Girls” and CEO/Founder of bettybeauty, inc. Nancy Jarecki with special celebrity guests.

WHEN: Friday, May 30th
7 p.m. – 10 p.m.

WHERE: Lincoln Square’s AMC Loews Theatre
1998 Broadway at 68th St.

Posted by poland at 01:11 PM | Comments (3)

Box Office Hell - May 30

Posted by poland at 01:09 PM | Comments (18)

Matson & The City

Posted by poland at 12:53 PM | Comments (2)

May 29, 2008

Ouchie!!!

Ella Taylor is taking heat for shredding, accurately, Sex & The City- Episodes 127-133: The Cash Grab.

Less a movie than a very long goodbye (again), at 142 minutes, Sex and the City is basically a whole season’s worth of episodes — or outtakes — slung together for no better reason than to squeeze all remaining revenues from a stupendously popular show that got out while the going was good. If nothing else, Sex and the City confirms King’s gifts as a TV director while demonstrating conclusively that he’s in way over his head working on the big screen. Where TV is small and broad and domestic and episodic, movies are large and potentially deep and climactic. But here, the show’s lifeblood — its trippy, back-talking, très gay script — sags into the garden-variety sassiness you’d find on any network sitcom. After sampling the movie’s bloodless dialogue, I missed the show’s bitchy one-liners like hell. And despite the pubic hair, well-hung penis and mildly graphic Malibu copulating that won the movie its R rating, there are more bad sex jokes than good sex.

If you want to test your gag reflex, watch the pleasant and talented Sarah Jessica Parker con herself into believing that Michael Patrick King could write his way out of an emotional paper bag without resorting to true misogyny disguised as "you go girl" philosophy on Larry Ki... uh, Charlie Rose. She's smarter than this. And he is about as concious of how others perceive his work as Kevin Spacey.

But my greatest love today is saved for Lynn Yaeger's Questions for Michael Patrick King, Sex and the City Writer and Director Or: later that day, I got to thinking about why your movie sucks. After listening to Sarah Jessica and Michael Patrick dare - DARE! - to suggest that Time Out New York's "enough already" cover was about shutting up women and not because - as mediocre as Iron Man and Indiana Jones IV (it's a number... it's how he eats!!!) are - the level of self-delusional arrogance about the importance about a show that made its name for talking about expensive shoes and sexual activities in orifices and with liquids rarely talked about on TV (It's not TV, It's Home Blow Job!).

Bring on Lynn!
1. Who are the four pathetic bimbos in funny outfits inhabiting this movie, and what have you done with our girls?

And the rest...

And my review...

Posted by poland at 09:58 PM | Comments (18)

Thursday

Not much to discuss.

The Sex & The City coverage is interesting. The idea of the film opening to more than $30 million seems to be freaking some people out... particularly the people at WB who just fired the people who picked up the title after the larger studio took a pass on the ol' TV show.

There is no real history for a film like this, though the question of whether women could open was probably similar - fewer dart-throwing monkeys in the chorus - for Charlie's Angels... a movie that should have been a cash cow for Sony, but cost way too much. If reports that S&TC cost $65 million are true, that's kinda crazy as well.

Obviously, the woman niche is, in hard numbers, much bigger than The Geek 8 niche. And they will have to come out in force, though it is probably a mistake to underestimate gay men attending the film in pretty significant numbers (though many gay men would be offended by the very idea... just like straight men).

The ticket sales companies are all in a flutter because shows are selling out in surprising numbers... but I would argue that this is more about the market for the movie, older women, who plan weekend choices more carefully and have the cash to pay the service charge without thinking about it. S&TC could be Tyler Perry for women.

Posted by poland at 02:51 PM | Comments (40)

May 28, 2008

BYOB - Heading East

AFTRA continues to be the piss in SAG's coffee, driven by the avarice of wanting a bigger piece of the media landscape. Still... like DGA's not- evil deal during the WGA work stoppage, this is likely checkmate for SAG and will quash any real chance of a strike.

And with that, off I fly...

Posted by poland at 12:12 PM | Comments (78)

May 27, 2008

Capturing A Critic In Your DVR

It seems kind of obvious, but I was immediately rocked by this New York Times story about Tivo making a deal which will allow users to sign up to have the picks of a Chicago Trib TV critic automatically downloaded to their Tivos.

What struck me immediately was... how much would someone pay to have Roger Ebert's 15 or 20 or 30 movie picks a month automatically downloaded to their DVR? But really, regardless of payment, what a great way, using delivery services you already pay for, to get a direct experience based on the taste of tastemakers in whom you really believe!

Sign me up for Scorsese's Top 10 movies from across the DirecTV line-up next month!

This idea matches up magnificently with a project like Cinetic's problematic but interesting effort to find some kind of outlet for a couple hundred indies and foreign language films a year - ridiculously overstated in the story as the 3600 submissions to Sundance each year – enhanced by taste guides who you can choose each month. (The problem remains about how to monetize all this free delivery.)

I don’t know about you, but I have many friends and acquaintances who want to know what I recommend for their NetFlix queues or to watch on TV. For them, it is a chance to have my taste – for those who like it – work for them. And for me, it would be a wonderful opportunity to dig into what’s available, pushing myself to make the best possible choices for someone looking for my input.

The Olivier/Oberon Wuthering Heights is on TCM Thursday morning at 10 on TCM. Badlands is on Hi-Def at 1:30p tomorrow on HDNet Movies. Have you seen the film that launched David Gordon Green and the KY film movement… George Washington is on IFC on Saturday at 2:35. You want some macho? Fight Club is on Cinemax HD on Sunday at 11a.

You get the idea. And those were the easy choices.

Now imagine that I – or whomever – has a few different options inside these options. You want HD only? You want Classics? Action? Foreign?

The second biggest problem with The Long Tail and the movie world is that narrowing distribution is actually a part of getting people to ultimately sit down and have the experience if you want anything beyond the most marketed and already best loved movies to be viewed. (The biggest problem is $s.)

It’s a critics’ dream to be able to directly effect what your readers sit down to watch. It probably works for a lot of movie lovers too. And technically, it is quite doable, as viable as an individual making something available on iTunes.

Cool.

Posted by poland at 11:14 PM | Comments (7)

Desperate Times For Republicans

As a Jew, I am not in love with any candidate mistaking one concentration camp for another.

On the other hand, when the Republicans have to try to turn Obama calling his great uncle his "uncle" and who recalls him suffering depression after being part of the group liberating Buchenwald and not Auschwitz into a major issue...

desperate.

When they find out his great uncle wasn't there when Buchenwald was liberated or was never depressed after he returned home, have them call me.

It's ironic that I am breaking down language and intent so often these days - as that is where the story of New Media vs Traditional Media lives - and yet I find this so meaningless. For the record, I also find McCain's inability to get Shia and Sunni right to be overblown as well. Yes, it would be good for The President to talk about world affairs with clarity. But it's not the stumbles, it's the ideas that matter.

And I think there was something to Clinton's use of assassination as a reference point... but not because she was calling for something horrible, but because she has so consistently baited the media into talking about a subject meant to hurt an opponent and taken no responsibility for it. I do think this was intentional... and sloppy. But Keith Olbermann went too far on this one for me.

Anyway... if this and "bitter" and Rev Wright are the big guns that McCain can come up with in this campaign, it's already over.

I won't even get far into Bill Clinton's latest meltdown... except to note that it's sad... and that there has been endless reporting about both sides pressuring/pushing superdelegates to come on board for months now. Bobby Kennedy, Watergate (cover-up)... what's next, an effort to suggest that Obama will send inflation soaring and get hostages taken in Iran, a la Carter?

Posted by poland at 06:08 PM | Comments (65)

Wilmington On Pollack

Sydney Pollack, the man who directed Out of Africa The Way We Were, and Three Days of the Condor, was one of those Hollywood professionals who seemed bullet-proof -- so versatile and ubiquitous, and so talented in all three of his movie professions (director, producer and actor) that it seemed no bilious critic or conniving executive would ever lay a glove on him.

They didn’t. Death apparently was the only adversary he couldn’t out-talk or outmaneuver.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 03:53 PM | Comments (0)

The Nikki Finke Effect

I guess we've now gotten to the point where Nikki Finke is going to desperately try to spin her gossip blog into a new source. As usual, her spin is self-referential and utterly self-serving. And as it is so often... a load of crap.

At least, partially.

And this is how the truly great liars make their lies seem truthful.

Today, Nikki explains “How Reputable Reporters Screwed Up.” The bulk of the blog entry is about the comment left on Nikki’s self-vetted comments pages by “A CAA Agent”… an amusing rant about a star’s ego run amuck and an agency’s overreach in trying to keep him in their pen. Maybe it was real… maybe it was simply what felt like insight but was not actually from a CAA agent. This is why people read Finke’s blog. They aren’t looking for facts, they are looking for entertainment.

But as Nikki vainly recounts the repetition of this comment, she never points out a couple of facts.

1. In the month and a half that this story floated around Hollywood as fact (how many times have I pointed out that this is a web comment and should not be assumed to be real, even if it makes sense), Nikki never called out the comment as potentially false. Instead, she sucked up all the post-strike publicity she could get.

2. Nikki positioned herself as the arbiter of comment legitimacy from the first day she started taking and arrogantly vetting comments for her blog. To wit:

“A week ago, DHD began allowing comments for the first time in its brief 20-month history. (I started DHD in time for the Oscars on March 3, 2006.) I wanted to provide a forum to express your strike opinions, rants, sorrows. In order for a comment to post, I have to approve it first. You see, I own this website so everyone has to play by my rules.

If you don't see your comment right away, it's because a) I'm busy, b) I'm asleep, or c) I deleted it. I want to present both sides, so don't expect me to just post "pro" or just post "con". But I also won't post comments that are virtually word-for-word repetitions of other approved comments (as if some group is trying to manipulate insiders' opinions.)

Keep it pithy, or I'll delete. (I mean it: be briefer!) Stay on topic, or I'll delete. Be intelligent, or I'll delete. Don't attack anyone personally, or I'll delete. Don't be racist or sexist or any other stupid "ist", or I'll delete. Don't impersonate Jeff Berg or Steven Spielberg or Barry Meyer, or I'll delete. (I'm now verifying comments "signed" by well-known names before I'll approve them.) Don't make wild unsubstantiated claims, or I'll delete.”

So… Nikki wants to set herself up as legit. She set herself up as the one who determines whether comments on her site are legitimate. And she let the comment be talked about endlessly for more than a month before suddenly spinning on her heels and using it as ammo against other journalists.

Still, she is right. None of those people – Stu VanArsdale, Anne Thompson, Patrick Goldstein, and Kim Masters – had any business referring to this comment on Nikki’s blog as anything more an amusing, anonymous comment… because Nikki is not terribly concerned about accuracy, journalism, or doing the right thing. She is primarily interested in building her image and self-image and anything that supports that effort is given lots of ink and anything that doesn’t is attacked, often in private, often with excessive, salacious lies.

So over a month later, what is Nikki’s motive to bring this up now? Well, look at who is complaining… “one CAA partner… especially outraged over Goldstein's inaccuracy”

So you get to know that she spoke to a CAA partner and that he came to Nikki for relief. What Nikki genuinely seems unable to comprehend is that that CAA partner is using Nikki to attack Patrick Goldstein anonymously (being that he was obviously more upset about Patrick picking it up than Nikki letting it run in the first place) and to deny the veracity of the piece without putting himself on the line, since, of course, he can’t have the slightest idea whether the comment was actually from one of his employees or not.

And as a bonus, the hack most likely to make us all look like hacks gets to take a swipe at Anne, Kim, Patrick… all long-time competition, even pointing to Patrick's potential daily blogging in direct competiton with Nikki (an idea I've been advocating for years)… and also at Stu VanArsdale who is daring to report gossip on agents – Nikki’s main beat and a subject that bores me to death – at Defamer… a self-acknowledged gossip rag.

But what Nikki never did, never does, and is unlikely ever to do is to take responsibility for her actions. Unlike my blog or most others, Nikki personally approves the comments that go up on her site, and therefore, has direct editorial responsibility for it. (And on my blog, were something like that to turn up, I would loudly point out the fact that the legitimacy of the author's employment was in question from the first day it ran. For the record, this blog has never held comments for approval. for better or for worse. I can take the heat and I prefer to treat those who read this blog - even the yahoos - like adults.)

Not a single one of the people who Nikki takes on in her blog entry has not been taken on by yours truly at various times. A least one of the people has felt so damaged by me that they have taken out their pain on me professionally. (No one as nastily or dishonestly as Nikki has.) Still... it takes a huge set of girl-balls to be the source of the gossip and then to complain and claim to have the high ground when others follow in kind. The standards for accuracy in industry coverage have become to low at media outlets high and low. But if anything, this is not the work of well-intended and often stunningly earnest writers like the ones Nikki is attacking today. If there is any proper name for it, it is The Nikki Finke Effect.

"Anyone can claim to be whoever they want on the Internet. The blurring of it all is astounding, anonymous comments cited as sources. Everybody is so damn desperate to be relevant and beat the Internet that it's making good journalists betray themselves."

Yes. And malicious, single-sourcing, buyable-by-access hacks like Nikki Finke too.

Posted by poland at 03:31 PM | Comments (8)

New (Media) Pre-Jac City

The New York Times had two stories yesterday that seemed disconnected... but are completely connected.

The first was about Redlasso, which decided to try to get ahead of the curve as a clearinghouse for daily television programs, clips of which are popular on websites. Unfortunately for Redlasso - or more so, its funders - the cutesy trick of trying to do this without the approval of the copyright holders is now turning into a real problem - the story - as the copyright holders build their own business models to control this very same content. Note that every sketch on SNL is now available for viewing and embedding on the NBC site, which includes ads for the networks and outside companies.

Next, you have a story about WB "Tr(ying) a New Tactic to Revive Its DVD Sales." Of course, the central premise of the story is utter bullshit. The film they are "experimenting with" is one of maybe one or two a year they could consider making this kind of investment in... as they already did with The Animatrix and to some degree, with Batman and Superman animated product in anticipation of big theatrical releases. (the story) However, in the case of Watchmen, it is an interesting experiment. Will it have anything at all to do with the future of WB Home Ent? No. Not anymore than an pay-per-view day-n-date experiment with, say, the next-to-last Harry Potter movie would change the face of home delivery.

The third story is Sony's creation of The Hot Ticket (the press release), announced last week, with the intention of delivering non-movie product to digital screens across America.

All three are stories of trying to get ahead of the curve, even if there are all kinds of inevitable reasons why it won't work. Redlasso was hoping, it seems, that copyright owners wouldn't notice that there was an outside company controlling and making money on their materials, so happy they would be with the popularity of the clips. Bzzt!

Sony is an established company, but still... if this kind of product ever ends up working in movie theaters as alternative programming - and the resistance for the last decade has been irrefutable - then won't each studio with a distribution arm seek to built their own outlets for material, replicating the structure of theatrical distribution now?

And can Warners make people more anxious to buy DVDs by spending more on specific production for those DVDs? Well... weren't these called extras for the last decade? Ah... it's different... it's better. Yes. And it's much more expensive. And in this case, it might work. And 95% of the public doesn't want to hear a director's commentary on a dumb rom-com 95% of the time.... they want to see the movie... they want it for a price... and yes, on huge, culty movies, you can bend the public over and screw them until they bleed and they will come back for more. I'm not sure this is a breakthrough.

The thing is, everyone is reaching for new revenue streams, leaping into the fray, hoping that being first will mean being successful before anyone else gets wise.

It’s going to be a long few years to come…

Posted by poland at 05:50 AM | Comments (2)

3 Movies Blur Into One

Had it occured to anyone else that Baghead seems to be the comedy version of The Strangers and that both seem to be channeling a less outrageous version of Funny Games?

Or is it just me?

Posted by poland at 05:39 AM | Comments (20)

May 26, 2008

Sydney Pollack, 73

I will write more on this later... boarding a plane. But this long-anticipated loss is one of the big ones for the film world, in this year or any other.

He was not only an important filmmaker, but an important supporter of filmmaking... the old and the new. He was, in so many ways, a traditionalist, yet he broke the rules at will, with style and real insight into what else was possible.

We all go, but few in this game will be remembered as fondly and respectfully by so many that they have been to war both with and against.

And on a personal level, Pollack is a bridge between the old and new Hollywood for me, his films coming of age just before I would and then, as I did. He romanticized the past and was raw and real (in a Hollywood context) about the present. So his loss represents the real starting line for the exits of an era of filmmakers that touched my life profoundly and more directly than the greats of the past.

Sadness...

Posted by poland at 06:09 PM | Comments (25)

Weekend Estimates by Klady - May 26

So... after protecting Indy, it turns out he didn't need much protection after all.

Len has it estimated at $149 million, BO Mojo and Fantasy Moguls at $151m. Regardless, it is the #5 first five days domestically ever. It might also be the fifth $150m+ 5-day ever. It's a bigger opening than any Harry Potter or any Rings film.

My personal take is that the #2 Memorial Day Weekend thing is pretty irrelevant. The significance of that kind of landmark really varies from year to year. What doesn't vary - in spite of the adjusted gross and ticket price folks - is money. Money is money is money. There is no realistic comparison between movie grosses and ticket sales in the mid-sixties and earlier with the seventies and then we see another big leap in the mid-90s. The top opening before 2000 is 1999's Star Wars - Episode One, which is all the way down at #20 now. But Indy follows in the footsteps of the four years before, as the top five openings of all time are now one per year, 2004-2008, three in May, one in June and one in July.

The question of how the film is being perceived, outside of our media and geek bubble, is still mostly unknown. I am not a big fan of the film, but as I recall, there was even great rage in our bubble about Episode One... and that went on to four times opening, which doesn't prove that the film is any good, but does prove that word-of-mouth in the real world was very good, at least.

After these numbers, most of the boo birds will back off... but not Nikki Finke, who continues to push the negativity. Knowing, as we do, that Nikki writes what Nikki is fed, one has to wonder whose agenda is it to diminish this obvious success? My guess has shifted away from another studio and right back to people inside Paramount who are about to lose Mr Spielberg again... particularly based on the new spin, which is that business is good, but Spielberg wasn't really trying.

As I always say... it takes a lot of hard work to make even a crappy movie. And in this case, love it or hate it, S/L/F took a lot of time to decide on a story and a script before making this film. Yes, they might all have been delaying, in part, until it was most advantageous to go ahead and make the movie. But the idea that this was not an effort is simply foolish.

Meanwhile, the worldwide number is over $300 million for this weekend. This means that Paramount will have their expenses on the film covered by the middle of next weekend and Spielberg/Lucas/Ford will start taking home 48 cents of every dollar grossed by the film (45 cents to the theaters and 7 cents to Paramount).

There's not a lot more to talk about... the Caspian bloodbath being covered and mourned.

Posted by poland at 03:26 PM | Comments (56)

May 24, 2008

BYOB Weekend

Thinking is easy... posting is hard.

If there is more to discuss, let the players play!

Posted by poland at 12:58 PM | Comments (90)

Assassination Throwdown

I would be writing about the assassination invocation... but I don't really know how I feel about it yet.

My first instinct was that it was completely intentional, as have "misspoken" comments about race, etc, launching public debate then apologized for. But it seemed the screaming from some was excessive.

But now, it is looking like there may be a longer run of planting this seed than I realized.

Still not sure though. The race - no pun intended - is over either way. But the rage just keeps getting piled onto when it should be subsiding.

Posted by poland at 12:54 PM | Comments (20)

Are Ticket Prices Soaring?

Crazy Nikki has been headlining "Movie Ticket Prices Are Soaring" for days now... which someone must have told her and which she clearly didn't bother to look into at all.

The ticket increases, which seem to be limited to a small number of theaters and to a $1 increase, seems to be a minor story that is being hyped by a hyper. There does seem to be a story in some increases in the cost of popcorn at the theaters... based on increases to the cost of corn.

Specific inaccuracies -
1. "Movie theaters are raising ticket prices by a dollar or two this summer because popcorn is more expensive. "

In the Kansas City Star, Robert Butler is reporting that there will be $1 increases in tickets... after 4p on weekends... from $9 to $10. In his piece, he says the increase is, "partly because of the rising price for popcorn," but there is no specific about cause-and-effect. Butler confusingly connects a March LA Times story on popcorn price issues with ticket sales, even though AMC specifically denied the correlation on the record.

I can find no reference anywhere to any $2 ticket increases. And keep in mind, the studios have a vested interest in keeping prices sane, even though 55% of that revenue is theirs.

A USA Today story on increases in corn costs included AMC, but didn't mention ticket price increases at all.

2. "The profit margins at theaters which rely on concession sales for as much as 45% of their revenue are desperate to make up the difference."

Same as it ever was. Gross revenue, however, is irrelevant at a theater. In terms of net revenue, concessions are more like 80% of the net. Perhaps the 45% figure comes from the percentage theaters keep from ticket sales.

3. Also, major theaters in cities are starting to charge the same for children as adults.

This has been an issue for years. As reported in USA Today , Clearview Cinemas in Manhattan dumped children and senior pricing last year, which raised those tickets to the adult price of $12 from $8... but they also report that the decision was reversed and the $8 ticket is back for seniors and kids.

You will not find many theaters that do not offer senior and children's pricing... and when they do not, it is usually on weekend evenings.

Of course, the rise of popcorn prices by 25 cents isn't much of a story. And the annual summer raise of prices by 25 cents or 50 cents has been going on for more than a decade.

As far as I can tell, there has been no change of ticket pricing in Los Angeles, for instance, where it's still $12.75 at The Grove, still $10.75 in Culver City, and still just $11.50 for AMC's Century City multiplex.

The spin from Nikki on all of this is, "The result is that Indy 4's totals, and Paramount's bragging rights, can surely benefit even if it does hurt the finances of filmgoers who increasingly feel ripped off."

Utter bullshit. Even assuming a uniquely high average ticket price for this weekend's blockbuster release, a $1 increase in ticket prices would only lead to an increase of under $15 million to the weekend total.

This spin was likely placed there by someone other than her pal Brad Grey... someone at another studio that wants to devalue the Indiana Jones success.... like someone who might be worried about a certain web-slinger losing position on the history charts. That's not happening, of course. Indy will fall short of those numbers. But all is spin in war and movies.

Posted by poland at 12:01 PM | Comments (13)

Friday Estimates by Klady - 5/24

So... this estimate is still the fourth biggest Friday that wasn't opening day in history, behind Star Wars 3/6, Spidey 2, and Matrix 2. Still not a story.

It is also pointed out to me that none of the actual forecasts by the tracking companies came close to the $170m bandied around by Steve Mason and Nikki Finke, who positioned Paramount's discussion of the actual tracing projections as a lowering of their projections. Part of the problem there is that now that Brad Grey feeds Finke, he seems to get overly enthusiastic, which she then runs, whether in box office or excitement about deals that are not as positive as spun. So perhaps the blame is not 100% on her... unless you still think of her box office coverage as journalistic in some way. Or did the higher numbers come from the competition that wants to see a $140 million 5-day look like a disappointment?

There is something thrilling about record-breaking. But it's not always going to happen. You don't have to be math whiz to have noticed a year ago that this summer is not going to be the kind of summer we had last year... though it might be more profitable. And my projection of Indy was always a summer leading $350m... not the $400 million-plus that you would have to project in a softer-than-2007 summer if it actually did a $170 million 5-day.

Anyway...

Narnia took a big hit this weekend and suddenly looks like $125m is going to be a stretch. Lots of dissection to come on that at Disney... and even more so, Anchutz' office, where all the self-hype going into the release is now looking ill-conceived.

Iron Man is still holding like a champ. And Speed Racer is just barely going to beat out Harold & Kumar II at the domestic box office. Brutal.

Posted by poland at 11:15 AM | Comments (28)

May 23, 2008

The Idiocy Of A $25 Million Day "Disappointment"

Funny... the first time this summer I didn't warn about overhype causing stupid stories about a non-record for a movie being a "disappointment" and we get one.

Crazy shite.

This 5-day opening will still surely be amongst the 15 best ever. (#15 is $120.84m) And the odds are good that we are looking at the Top 10 or higher. But as is always the case with these movies, we are in the ether... all precedent is iffy, at best.

What galls is that the notion that this was going to be a $170m opening five came from people who want to tell the public that there is such a thing as tracking that says that a movie will open to $170 million. NRG or MarketCast may project that kind of number, but there is no such thing as tracking that is specific to ANY number, much less numbers for weekends over $100 million.

Of course, those same people then start using the "d" word to cover for the fact that their numbers were, simply, wrong... possible, but wrong.

And that's what's wrong with all this obsessive box office projection, which has really taken off since Drudge started linking to Nikki Finke offering Sony's or Universal's pre-weekend projections and/or Friday early evening (west coast) projections. As one of the regulars in here has asked, what's wrong if the numbers are right? The answer is, "nothing." The problem is when the numbers or projections are wrong. Like Barack Obama: The Muslim, unringing the bell completely is impossible. And false mythology continues to spread like a media game of Telephone.

My guess is around $140 million. But even if it's $130m or $125m... are we really counting that as a disappointment these days? Even with that start, you're still likely looking at the top grossing film of the summer. And internationally, it is pretty much guaranteed to be #1 for the summer in the traditional of Pirates and Spider-Man 3 and the Potter films. So....

Posted by poland at 05:13 PM | Comments (42)

Sea Your Fest, 1

It's amazing how quickly I settle into a 5-film day.

Year after year I go to festival after festival and yet, it's easy to forget that it's second nature to me to juggle a bunch of movie experiences each day... as I think it is for most of my critical brethren.

The first film of the day was actually not a Seattle International Film Festival movie, but rather a terrific doc about Jimmy Carter by Jonathan Demme, The Man From Plains. And I watched it (well, most of it)… taa dah!... on my iPhone after renting it from Apple iTunes.

It was the first time I tried the rental experience and the results, for me, were mixed. The 30-day period you have to start watching the film is good. The 24-hour period you have to finish watching the film kinda sucks. As I imagine a lot of renters and potential renters for iTunes are, I was in a business traveling situation. And though I had 2.5 hours on an airplane, sleeping for an hour meant not seeing the whole movie… and landing in Seattle with other things to do meant that I would not return to my iPhone to watch a doc inside the allotted 24 hours. (The countdown pop-up on the phone each time I turned it on was cool… though doubly frustrating.) Thing is, the rental is much more profitable for studios than me renting a DVD via Blockbuster or Netflix… yet the experience is even more restrictive… for no real reason. I will never rent that movie again… and surely not buy it. So as good an experience as the movie was, the rental experience was not.

The festival’s opening night film was Battle In Seattle, the Stuart Townsend directed political potboiler starring an array of known faces. The film also played in Sundance, but remains without domestic distribution. Thing is, it was a perfect choice for Seattle, where a good half of the audience lived through the WTO riots. As a result, the screening was like going to a concert by your favorite 80s band… you love every minute but you do notice how creaky the old boys are.

Townsend did a decent job for a first timer, showing some of the classic mistakes, but getting what he needed on film. Townsend the screenwriter and concept creator, however, didn’t get the job done for the director. Simply, the documentary footage outshone every single idea he had for a dramatic narrative. There was no reason for this fictionalized feature to exist and all the reason in the world to wish Townsend had spent the last 6 years on a documentary about this… because that might have been sensational.

And of course – SPOILER – there is the old Hitler-in-an-argument thing… if you need to compare someone to Hitler to make the point, you have already lost the argument. Here, if you need to have the cops hit the pregnant woman in the belly with a club, you have lost an serious effort to make you narrative feel real and not just a mile over the top (even if such an event did occur… I have no idea, actually.) END SPOILERS

The cast was good. Andre Benjamin continues to show he will make it as an actor if he likes. And we continue to wonder if Michelle Rodriguez will ever get past her reputation as a handful to become the movie star she really should be… she really is insanely charismatic on camera.

Anyway…

The other three films I saw were festival films, two docs and one pseudo-doc. And I really was moderately okay with only one of them. As a rule, these are the kinds of films that I just don’t write about. Why kick a movie when it is seeking an audience that might appreciate them even when I don’t? And I do think that two of the films, made in highly stylized ways, will find some who are passionate about them. The third will also find a feel-good audience that isn’t too demanding.

And so it goes…

Posted by poland at 04:45 PM | Comments (1)

The Indy Reviews Redux

Non-Spoiler

All Spoilers

Wilmington

Pride

Posted by poland at 04:41 PM | Comments (17)

May 22, 2008

BYOB Thursday

Headng to Seattle for SIFF... talk amongst yourselves..

Please play nice... anyone who types in caps shouldn't find such easy marks in those who do not.

(And by the way... anyone who had trouble with the Joel Silver interview link, it seems to be working now.)

Posted by poland at 01:28 AM | Comments (73)

Not As Far As I Can Throw 'Em

This is one of those moments where I actually would like to have been in Cannes...

The critics are all worked up over Che and based on what I'm reading... they don't really know what it is and they all felt compelled to offer their opinions way too early. Some are even wagging their fingers at Soderbergh, explaining what the movie must be or not be.

I have no idea how I would feel about the four hours of the film as they are right now. But I do know that I am frustrated that I might never get the chance to find out. If Soderbergh cuts the film under Cannes pressure - even though there is no consistent correlation between Cannes response and US release success - this version, or a slightly different 4-hour version, will still likely turn up on DVD some day.

But honestly, the perceptions are so all over the place that I can't say I trust a single thing I've read about the movie yet... except for those who have acknowledged their confusion and their sense of same amongst their peers.

Posted by poland at 01:04 AM | Comments (16)

The 48 Hr Diaries... Week One

Welcome to MCN's new weekly series, The 48 Hrs. Journals, screenwriter Larry Gross's contemporaneous diary from the set of the classic that launched the buddy/cop craze of the 80s. I expect you will find it interesting, frustrating, and thought-provoking. A glimpse...

"I don't know what you've heard...I've been working this fella and while I like em I know it's not gonna work out...."

That's Walter referring to my predecessor on the project Steve De Souza.

"I been reading a few things...the script needs some things you do well I always think do less well. I gotta bunch of people standing my office wanting know whether to make the police cars red or blue...It's brushwork on the script that's needed...basically this things a pounder... a shaggy dog story. Defiant Ones plus chuckles...I'll be honest with ya...with four weeks till we shoot you probably won't get screenwriting credit...basically all you got time for is to do what I tell ya...are ya interested?"

The rest...

Posted by poland at 12:29 AM | Comments (3)

Best Review Of Meirelles' Blindness?

A Brazilian friend of the site, Cinema em Cena's Pablo Villaca, sent this link, along with a translation into English. The moment is at a screening of Blindness, which is based on José Saramago's novel. And it would be a sweet moment for any filmmaker converting the novel of a writer they admired.

The transcription...

Saramago says:

- Fernando...

Meirelles, sensing that maybe the writer is feeling obligated to say something, interrupts him:

- You don't need to...

But Saramago doesn't stop:

- I'm as happy after watching this film...

He pauses... And then he completes the sentence:

- ... as I was when I finished writing the book.

Fernando: "Really? You don't know how happy this makes me."

And then he leans forward and kisses Saramago's forehead.

Posted by poland at 12:06 AM | Comments (3)

May 21, 2008

Hot Button: Whose Scoop Is It OR Why Does My Shoe Smell?

I have great empathy for Latino Review and Collider, both of which stuck their neck out this week – and took the kind of tone that allows Traditional Media to marginalize them internally – and complained about specific cases of The Trades running news that these sites claim they already broke as new news and even Exclusive.

Anyone who has lived on the web for a while knows about this. It starts with The Trades and others not picking up on reports made online, even if they are able to confirm them with a phone call. Then there is a lull. Then, suddenly, the news “breaks” in the trades or the LA Times or wherever.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 03:13 PM | Comments (1)

Indiana Jones & The Battle For Dominance In Utterly Irrelevant Hype

One of the ways the very valuable, well-run, helpful internet ticket buying companies are now hyping themselves is to send out weekly reports on their tickets sales. These reports are now regularly reported on websites, including Variety's, and even referred to in Traditional Media.

One problem... they're irrelevant non-information posing as valuable info.

You see, the further any poll gets from an unbiased survey, the less valuable that poll becomes. The least reported on aspect of polling, even in the political season, is how questions skew any survey. For instance, last night, 21% of people in KY said race was important in their voting choice... and only 80% of those people voted for Clinton... this, according to the exit polling. Something is screwy there, unless you have a lot of white people voting for Obama because he's black or the polling is simply wrong. We have no way of knowing.

Polls by ticket-sellers are also skewed... mostly by the vagaries of online ticket sales, none of which are offered as warnings when these numbers are bandied about. I would be willing to bet that more women use the service than men, that parents who are taking smaller kids to the movies use it more than single for matinees, and that bigger cities with theaters that sell out regularly have a much higher percentage of online sales than anywhere else.

So in other words, Sex & The City should be doing big numbers with women who are planning to go one opening weekend in cities where the show had the biggest penetration, which is bigger cities. So on the Fandango chart below, you see a 5-to-1 percentage of ticket sales for S&TC vs Narnia, when there is almost no chance that this weekend’s Narnia box office will total just 20% of Sex & The City’s opening gross.

Likewise, as of the Friday morning Speed Racer opened, it was within 1% of sales of tickets with the second weekend of Iron Man… and did less than half the business of Iron Man that weekend.

And let’s not forget that none of these companies offer actual sales figures, lest we actually analyze their sales figures each week… way too scary.

So why do people keep hyping this “information?” Well, it seems to me that everyone is looking for “news,” even when there is none… and guess what… there is very, very little here… and what little there is gets completely glossed over by not having any real numbers or details about the buyers to work with.

Just sayin’…

===============

On the eve of the release of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, MovieTickets.com reports that as of 4:15 p.m. ET, the movie has accounted for 77 percent of its total tickets sold today. Further, the total volume of Indiana Jones tickets sold at MovieTickets.com tripled from Sunday (5/18) to Monday (5/19).

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is set to release at midnight.

For further information or to speak with a MovieTickets.com spokesman, please contact…

=============

Dozens of tonight’s midnight shows for INDIANA JONES 4 are already sold-out – while the SEX AND THE CITY movie (opening May 30) is seeing hearty group ticket sales, with indications that female filmgoers might show up at the theater next weekend en masse. (As of this morning, 68% of respondents in our SATC survey say they’re planning to see it on opening weekend with “a group of women.”)

Please contact us if you need sources on summer movie ticketing trends – or if you’d like a movie travel expert to talk about where you can “Vacation on Location, visiting this summer’s movie locations.

Best wishes, XXX XXX/Fandango

Fandango Five – Ticket Sales (as of 5/21/08 9:00 a.m. PT)

Movie
Fandango User Rating % Fandango Sales

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
“Must Go” 76%

Sex and the City
“Go” 15%

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
“Go” 3%

Iron Man
“Must Go” 1%

What Happens in Vegas
“Go” 1%

Posted by poland at 02:42 PM | Comments (2)

May 20, 2008

The Love Guru Attacks

In the last two months, I have gotten about 3 e-mails a week from a man who seems to actually be Hindu chaplain Rajan Zed, attacking The Love Guru and either pushing or "reporting" support for various calls to stop or change the film.

I don't get it.

As far as I know, they haven't even seen the movie. But there you go. We haven't run any of these e-mails on MCN or further pursued the issue, since there seems to be very little traction or any reaosnable argument. There was a spike in interest when the British Film Institute released a statement last week that said, "Please rest assured that the BFI will not be screening this title nor will be involved with a possible release of it.”

This victory was turned upside down, however, when BFI was forced to respond to the spin on this story with, "The only reason we are not screening the film is that we don't support large budget films from Hollywood. We tend to screen small-budget films that need our support. There is no religious or moral reason whatsoever behind our decision not to screen it."

Of course, if you listened to Traditional Media, this story should be great guns on the internet because, you know, the internet will run anything! But it has not. Most of the play the story has gotten has been in the Indian media.

Anyway... just one of those interesting oddities.

The most recent missive, in full, after the jump...

For favor of publication/broadcasting

Hindus urge United Kingdom film organizations to halt Hollywood movie “The Love Guru”

Hindu groups have contacted cinema/film related organizations in United Kingdom (UK) urging them not to distribute/screen upcoming Hollywood movie “The Love Guru” till its presenter Paramount Pictures makes necessary changes to it.

Advancing the movement launched by acclaimed Hindu leader Rajan Zed; Bhavna Shinde, representing Hindu Janjagruti Samiti and Sanatan Society for Scientific Spirituality, in communiqués to UK Department of Culture, Film Council, British Board of Film Classification, British Council, British Film Institute, British Screen Advisory Council, Cinema Exhibitors Association, Film Distributors’ Association, Churches’ Media Council, Video Standards Council, Cineworld Cinemas, Office of Film Communication, Showcase Cinemas, United International Pictures, etc., said, “…stop distributing or screening the movie till Paramount has made necessary changes to the movie, so that it will not hurt the feelings of the worldwide spiritual and Hindu community.”

“…If the trailer is an indicator of the content of the movie…then we feel that this movie is most likely to hurt the sentiments of seekers from various spiritual paths…it will hurt the religious sentiments of millions of Hindus worldwide, who hold the ‘Guru-disciple’ relationship as sacred…we are supporting Rajan Zed’s protest against the denigration…Poking fun is one thing, but if it creates a sense of belittling other’s faith, then it is wrong,” Shinde stressed in this communiqué.

Meanwhile, furthering the drive pioneered by Indo-American leader Rajan Zed, various organizations and leaders have been coming out expressing concern about the possibility of “The Love Guru” hurting the sentiments of Hindus worldwide and urging filmmakers to be more responsible when handling faith related subjects. Zed has been saying that from the information available about the movie, it appears to be lampooning Hinduism and Hindus and using Hindu terms frivolously. Various Hindu, Catholic, Presbyterian, Jewish, Native American, Methodist, Buddhist, youth, film, spiritual/religious, music, yoga, civil rights, etc., leaders have already issued statements in support of this cause espoused by Rajan Zed.

On the other hand, Hindu groups have recently been approaching film distributors associations, exhibitors groups, regulatory bodies, government ministries, theater owners, etc., in various parts of the world urging them not to distribute/screen “The Love Guru” till Paramount Pictures makes necessary changes to it.

G. Kendrick Macdowell, Vice President of the National Association of Theatre Owners, largest exhibition trade organization in the world, replying to one such request wrote, “I am sympathetic to your concern as I have been to the ashrams in India and know a little bit about the guru-disciple relationship. I have not seen the trailer or the movie, but I can guess that it satirizes ‘gurus on the make’. I doubt I would find it funny. Nevertheless, we are not in a position to take action you recommend …we are a trade association, and we cannot interfere with the decisions of our members regarding what movies or trailers to play…”

Ilona Cheshire, Press Officer of prestigious British Film Institute (BFI), wrote in her reply, “Please rest assured that the BFI will not be screening this title nor will be involved with a possible release of it.” J.L. Green, Chief Assistant (Policy) to the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC), replying the communiqué, said, “The BBFC is sympathetic to your concerns. However, THE LOVE GURU has not been submitted to the BBFC for classification…”.

A prominent Jewish Rabbi, Elizabeth W. Beyer of Nevada (USA), has called for boycott of “The Love Guru” because it “…lampoons Hinduism, mocks Ashram life and Hindu philosophy…” and asking “who laughs at religious practices”.

Paramount Pictures, through its Senior Vice President National Publicity, Jessica Rovins, has earlier stated, “It is our full intention to screen the film for Rajan Zed and other Hindu leaders in the U.S. once we have a finished print."

It may be recalled here that advance screenings of Mel Gibson’s 2004 movie “The Passion of the Christ” were held for clergy and others.

“The Love Guru”; a comedy starring Mike Myers (of Austin Powers fame, who is also the co-writer and co-producer), Jessica Alba, Justin Timberlake, Ben Kingsley; and directed by Marco Schnabel; is set to release on June 20 next. In it Myers, an American, raised in an ashram in India, moves back to US as Guru Pitka to seek fame and fortune in the world of self-help and spirituality.

Hinduism, oldest and third largest religion of the world, has about one billion followers. Moksha (liberation) is the ultimate goal of Hinduism.

Paramount Pictures Corporation is a global producer and distributor of filmed entertainment.

Beginning with first moving picture made in Hyde Park London in 1889 and Lumiere brothers first show in 1896, UK has considerably influenced the development of the world cinema. Claiming its Ealing Studios as the oldest in the world, UK has given us great films like “2001: A Space Odyssey”, “Lawrence of Arabia”, “The Third Man”, “Dr. Strangelove…”, etc.

Posted by poland at 06:52 PM | Comments (22)

Three From Synecdoche...

(run cursor over running video for the other clips)

Posted by poland at 06:22 PM | Comments (1)

The Real Math That Doesn't Work

Gerry Ferraro is out pushing the sexism angle on the campaign again... atter she pushed the race issue. Yet, when she is asked for details, she has to scrape together absurd fragments of things that have occured. She wants to make Obama camp responsible for every word to come out of TV commentators mouths for the last year. Then she runs stuff up the flagpole, like the idea that Obama would never have taken the "Annie Oakley" tack against a male competitor who had suddenly gone from being pro-gun restrictions to a virtual NRAer. Of course he would... but he'd have asked whether he was suddenly Daniel Boone or Rambo.

But this is not why I started this entry.

First, in terms of math that never gets discussed, don't forget that Obama has won 10 primary elections with 67% of the vote or more. If Clinton wins Kentucky by that number, that makes 3 for Clinton. Bully for her. But it seems like everyone has forgotten that he had already achieved this.

Second... and the one that endlessly confuses me... Obama has raised just over $265 million from about 1,475,000 donors. His campaign has over $37 million in cash on hand.

The Clinton campaign has raised about $190 million... spent every dime... and is carrying an additional $20 million-plus in debt.

So... how can the Clinton camp argue that they are economically responsible?

Moreover... all this finger-wagging about Obama spending multiples of her campaign in certain states never mentions that he has spent about $18 million more than her total... or less than 10% more than her campaign has spent.

Whose fiscal policy would you prefer?

Posted by poland at 05:52 PM | Comments (39)

Luhrman's Epic Australia Trailers

Clealry an attempt to return to the epics of the past, though using the full box of digital paints that are available...

Someone channeling Clint Eastwood?

Of all the airplanes in all the...

The trailer...

Posted by poland at 04:37 PM | Comments (33)

If It's Tuesday, It Must Be Boring... BYOB

Oy... did the soft fall off the Indy waterfall ever leave us all floating in the water, waiting for a wave.

Even the cover of Movie City News is stuck linking to retreads of stories, from Patrick Goldstein's lightweight review of woman in the film business that Manohla Dargis did weeks ago and that I am many others responded to in some depth, to the NY Times still giving the brilliant Errol Morris space to sell his not-quite-as brilliant movie Standard Operating Procedure with what seems to be his fourth op-ed piece the subject, to both the coastal Timeses doing "real people" stories meant to reflect the state of the industry (funding/acting), to Gillian Anderson talking X-Files and Joan Collins talking Bond (I thought it more likely she'd be offered a role in the new Mummy movie).

Maybe there is a good reason to go to Cannes... because it's boooring around these parts.

Posted by poland at 03:06 PM | Comments (33)

May 19, 2008

A Trailer We Never Thought We'd See

Posted by poland at 04:11 PM | Comments (7)

BYOB Monday

Everyone seems worn out on Indy chat... what else?

Posted by poland at 01:36 PM | Comments (33)

The Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Review (ALL Spoilers)

SPOLIERS... SPOILERS... SPOILERS!!!

Are we clear?

Spoliers via this link!

If you don't want to be spoiled, don't click on the link... ok?

Here is a spoiler-free sample of the spoiler section...

I kinda love Spielberg doing XXX XXX XXX for, probably, the first and last time of his career. The XXX XXX XXX is funny and creepy (though in the back of my head, I kept expecting Indy to XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX). The only downside, really, is that it was XXX XXX XXX XXx with the XXX XXX the XXX. (The XXX XXX is another mixed bag… the kind of XXX XXX that could work once in a film like this… but it is the first of XXX, XXX.)

In other words... stay out until you are ready.

Posted by poland at 01:28 AM | Comments (15)

May 18, 2008

The Indy Review (No Spoilers)

The most striking thing to me about Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is that it is, in spite of claims otherwise made, a CG version of an Indiana Jones movie. And this changes a great deal about what was so very pleasurable about the first three films. Even then, post-Star Wars, they were throwbacks. Star Wars had many layered effects, but they had the limitations – beautiful limitations – of the pre-computer-driven effects universe. Indiana Jones was about big sets and dramatic landscapes and stunts that were breathtaking, even if we knew that it wasn’t always Harrison Ford sliding underneath the truck.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 10:06 PM | Comments (19)

I Want To Address This... But I Am Heading To The Movie

Updated 2a, Monday morning

This post was inspired by one of Drew McWeeney's comments in another entry...

By the way, Dave... even if you don't want to admit it, "buzz" has certainly existed on this film since they began production. The stories we DIDN'T print would fill a book. Sourced stories. Accurate stories. You can pretend that the only buzz is from non-existent people, but you're fooling yourself.

I hope that the film is awesome. I hope it blows people's minds all day long tomorrow at Paramount. But you need to stop with this "there was no buzz" lie. Go talk to your friend Jack M. and ask him what the near-deafening buzz is and has been for months and months. It's not from exhibitor's screenings, m'man.

Posted by: Drew at May 18, 2008 01:41 AM

And this is what I have a problem with.

All of the "buzz" that is turning up in the media IS based on those early reviews on AICN... not from reported issues from the scripting process, production, or post-production.

I believe, 100%, that Drew and others in the geek culture have heard a ton of stuff... much of it true, though this kind of "truth" is often just perspective. It actually is NOT reported the way a real reporter reports a story. Every angle is not checked. Details are not fact checked. A source can be beyond reproach... and be wrong.

It happens every single day. It happens in Traditional Media. It happens in New Media. It happens to gossips. Every. Single. Day.

And this is why there are journalistic standards that serious people take seriously and commit to. Sometimes, we even have a great story, but it doesn't work out so that we know it's fair and completely right... so we spike it!

Without baiting you, Drew, I'd like to know what the criteria for AICN spiking stories? Did you run all the Indy news... or at least all the news you feel was sourced and accurate? Why or why not?

I will be happy to read your answer and to continue this discussion calmly and without malice. But please understand... this is the reason why the internet and the people who make their names by spreading gossip are a problem. The NY Times didn't report what you say you know, sourced and accurate, about what happened on that set or in the decision-making process.

There is buzz of every movie. And as often as not, it's wrong. And it's wrong floating out of studios and it's wrong floating out of junkets and it's wrong from critics... and so on. And sometimes, it's right. And there is always a better percentage in being negative than positive because most movies turn out badly. It's high school, Drew. It's not journalism.

I've seen the movie. I think it's ok, but not great. And still, I object to the blind domino effect. Being right is no excuse. And no matter what I think... who am I to determine if I am right or wrong anyway? Are you going to write Roger Ebert to tell him he's a sucker because you know people on this movie who didn't like the choices that were made?

Slippery slope... as it has always been at AICN and at other similar sites. You guys report out of context. You think you have control of these rumors and ridiculous screening reviews because you "know" what's really happening, even when you aren't reporting it. But that too means you are providing skewed information. That's never seemed to bother you or Harry much. But as a journalist who's been watching my profession degrade and degrade and degrade, I care a lot.

I fear that the discussion might feel like piling on, especially if I like the film... but Drew hits on the key issue I have been going on about regarding coverage of this movie and I think it is worth more discussion... especially with Drew's perspective...

More to come...

=================

By the way, Dave... even if you don't want to admit it, "buzz" has certainly existed on this film since they began production. The stories we DIDN'T print would fill a book. Sourced stories. Accurate stories. You can pretend that the only buzz is from non-existent people, but you're fooling yourself.

I hope that the film is awesome. I hope it blows people's minds all day long tomorrow at Paramount. But you need to stop with this "there was no buzz" lie. Go talk to your friend Jack M. and ask him what the near-deafening buzz is and has been for months and months. It's not from exhibitor's screenings, m'man.

Posted by: Drew at May 18, 2008 01:41 AM

Posted by poland at 12:29 PM | Comments (64)

Weekend Estimates by Klady

So Narnia 2 opens about $10 million behind Narnia 1... why?

Don't really know. Did skewing older cost them? Maybe. There could be some parents waiting to make sure, around the soccer field, that it's safe for the little ones. There was more competition here... $25 million more grossed by the rest of the Top 5 this weekend than on Narnia 1's first weekend. And there was a marketing emphasis on the new star and much less on the four kids at the center of the first film. But... who really knows?

Another nice hold for Iron Man. Great numbers, but it still remains $60m behind Spider-Man 3 and $50 million ahead of X2: X-Men United as it heads into its first weekend with some market-changing competition, a luxury S-M3 didn't have. This suggests a total around $270 million.

Speed Racer continues to drop like a stone after being the media whipping boy for the last two weeks. Too bad.

Forbidden Kingdom is surely the quietest $50 million hit of the year.

Posted by poland at 10:05 AM | Comments (34)

Variety "Review" And The Pathetic Fear Of Irrelevance

What's almost as sad as live-blogging during the first screening of a movie is disrespectful?

Variety being so insecure about being relevant that it has to run the following before actually reviewing the film...

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Posted: Sun., May 18, 2008, 6:55am PT

By TODD MCCARTHY
One of the most eagerly and long-awaited series follow-ups in screen history delivers the goods -- not those of the still first-rate original, 1981's "Raiders of the Lost Ark," but those of its uneven two successors.

"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" begins with an actual big bang, then gradually slides toward a ho-hum midsection before literally taking off for an uplifting finish.

Nineteen years after their last adventure, director Steven Spielberg and star Harrison Ford have no trouble getting back into the groove with a story and style very much in keeping with what has made the series so perennially popular. Few films have ever had such a high mass audience must-see factor, spelling giant May 22 openings worldwide and a rambunctious B.O. life all the way into the eventual "Indiana Jones" DVD four-pack.

Full review to be posted shortly.

Thankfully, there is almost no insight or substance there... since I am seeing the film in a few hours and don't want to know.

But Todd McCarthy is a serious, serious guy... and to allow criticism to be so reduced, as any critic will tell you that they learn more about how they feel about a film as they write, is sad.

The NY Times is quickly becoming the one place where the critics take themselves and their work seriously enough not to stunt endlessly... if only that extended to their industry coverage.

Posted by poland at 07:58 AM | Comments (41)

May 17, 2008

What Is With The Times Online?

After the embarrassingly misreported story on how dangerous Cannes is to Indiana Jones yesterday, The Times Online today offers an alleged first newspaper review of the film... that is nothing close to being a review!!! All they do is drop a few spoilers and indicate that they liked the movie more than the buzz... the buzz that didn't much exist and that they propagated!!!

Really... there is nothing much to read here, especially if you don't want to read spoilers, albeit fairly minor ones. There is nothing approaching a single graph of critical argument about the film... not even hack level criticism.

I just don't get it. Isn't The Times Of London supposed to be Traditional Media? Aren't they supposed to act like adults?

My guess - just a guess - is that they feared printing a full review before the Cannes screening because they had made an agreement with Paramount in order to get early access to the movie. But trying to have it both ways is so... so... so...

Argh.

Posted by poland at 11:51 PM | Comments (7)

Friday Estimates by Klady

The first Narnia film opened to $23m on Friday and ended up doing less than triple that for the weekend... and about 12 times the number in the end, dometically. But that was early December, not on the holiday weekend and not in summer. So we don't really know what the multiple will look like this weekend. I could be anyway between 2,5x to 3.5x really. We'll have a better sense of that tomorrow, though the final number may be skewed by the Christian question, which is, do families go see the film after church tomorrow?

But let's also keep perspective on the story. The difference between a Christian push and not is probably 20% - 30%... the difference, say, between a $200 million movie and a $250 million movie. That's a lot of money in the real world, but in Move World, not as much.

Also keep in mind than the first Narnia did just over 60% of its box office overseas, $290m domestic to $450m foreign.

Iron Man is running about $40 million ahead of X2 and about $60m behind Spider-Man 3. This suggests that $260m doemstic is close to where the number will land.

Posted by poland at 11:36 AM | Comments (15)

You Cannes Drive Me NUTS!!!!

This is why I got so angry about the NY Times’ idiotic story about “the internet knives” being out for Indiana Jones… and this… and this… and this and sadly, this...

Why do people run this shit without doing more than 10 seconds of damned legwork?

1. The Times of London, relying on inaccurate away-from-the-office Variety reporting, lazily failed to research or copy edit the FALSE information it offers about this premiere. Not only is it not true that studios shied away from Cannes after the (massively successful, but unpleasant) Da Vinci launch two summers ago, but in fact, the May 19 slot movie (within a day or 4) has premiered out of competition at Cannes EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2001.

Shrek, Star Wars II, The Matrix Reloaded, Shrek 2, Star Wars III, The Da Vinci Code, Shrek The Third, and now Indy.

GET IT?!?!?!

There is no story here, children!

2. Why has every single film released in the highest profile spot in the domestic summer had an out-of-competition premiere in Cannes for 8 straight years?

Because that's where the f-ing a-list critics are... especially the European critics.

It's not complicated.

If you don't want to screen early - and few films under this kind of pressure do - and you want the top critics to review your film in their papers, you must bring the film to them. And if you want to get your talent in one place to get a press push and to do, often, a European junket, this is the only way to make it work.

3. Every single one of these films ended up within the Top 4 of the summer after "starting" at Cannes (in quotes because the films almost inevitably screen in the US markets within 24 hours of the Cannes screening).

4. None of these movies were being reviewed more than a couple of days earlier than they otherwise would have been had they not gone to Cannes.

5. There is no clear corrolation between the good or bad reviews of these films and being at Cannes.

Are grown up journalists really anticipating a flood of negativity because of one anonymous f-ing review of the film on AICN? YES!!!! And the fault lands dead on the editorial desk of the New York Times. And they should be embarrassed and apologize for a terrible editorial choice. (Fat chance of that!)

And Variety should be embarrased as well. Creating false, ambitiously eye-grabbing mythology out of whole cloth is supposed to be what we expect from Nikki Finke, not a highly edited trade magazine!

It is, of course, possible that Indy will be slammed tomorrow. But all of this obsessive talk that skews negative based on NOTHING is relentlessly irresponsible and shoud stop. It's just not right.

Posted by poland at 01:34 AM | Comments (31)

May 16, 2008

20 Weeks Of Summer... Wish Fulfillment

A theme for the summer has finally emerged from the back of my brain pan.

It's not the most original idea, but it's come together in the reflection of Iron Man's massive opening and the rising tide of expectation for Sex & The City, the male and female conduits.

But even more so, It was about figuring out the problem with Speed Racer? There was no character in that film that became the connective tissue to a wider audience. Speed is, pretty much, a kid in a fast toy. The emotional rooting interest was never offered in the advertising and the critics rarely noticed it, as they reached for vomit bags because too much movement tends to upset people over 30.

Of course, as I said from the moment I saw the film, the film is primarily for children, who dream, like Speed, of going fast, winning races, and receiving perfect love from their parents. But they didn't sell that.

It's Wish Fulfillment, Stupid.

The rest....

And updated gross projection charts...

Posted by poland at 11:57 PM | Comments (29)

BYOB - Friday

Can we please keep the personal blog politics to a dull roar? It's more than a little boring.

How will Caspian open? Who is interested in seeing it?

Anyone still revving their Cannes engines?

Posted by poland at 03:15 PM | Comments (57)

Wilmington...

"One thing I really missed this time around were those brave, but homey bickering beavers voiced by Ray Winstone and Dawn French who guided the Pevensies in Witch I realize we keep leaping ahead through centuries of Narnian time in these stories. But couldn't those beavers somehow get a return engagement?"

Just thought I would solicit some opinion about MW...

The reviews of Caspian and Garcia Girls

Posted by poland at 03:13 PM | Comments (2)

the assassination of speed racer

I wouldn't normally link to something so in agreement with me, especially when the issue has died down in here. But I found the image amusing enough to link it.

LINK

(Now THAt would be a conversion... Lancelot Link! Or is it Space Monkeys?)

Posted by poland at 01:59 PM | Comments (34)

The Media Conspiracy Against Hillary Clinton

Rolling Stone's Jann Wenner on Conversations With Michael Eisner:

"I put (Obama) on the cover because I am just — swallowed the Kool-Aid and I'm for him, and I wanna throw the, you know, impact of whatever it may be at Rolling Stone behind him and — and throw everything we've got behind him. I think that's a really important thing in our times."

Later...

"We offered Hillary a chance to be on a cover with Obama and Edwards early on in the campaign. They were agreeable, and she was not agreeable to it. You know, 'cause [the Clinton camp] thought they were the front-runner. They didn't need this. They didn't need to speak to the Rolling Stone readers, you know?"

Posted by poland at 11:58 AM | Comments (17)

May 15, 2008

More Sex, More City... More Than Anyone Needs

We were asked, before the screening, not to give away the surprises in the third act. And I won’t. But SURPRISES?!?!?!?! Really? To anyone who had ever seen a season of this HBO sitcom? Impossible!

I would be willing to be real money that if you took a poll of people who had seen at least one full season of the series, asking them for the 10 surprises they might suspect will happen in this feature film, at least 90% would get all 5 of the actual “surprises” in the film.

You want a review? Watch the DVDs of the series. There is not a single idea in this film that was not conceived, discussed, and beaten to within an inch of its life during the run of the show on HBO. Not ONE!

Nor was there a tick or a schtick or a flick that these four very good actresses haven't done to within an inch of my vomit reflex on the show that isn't recalled here... with little more.

The rest...

Posted by poland at 10:46 PM | Comments (14)

Appeasing Me Off

The rhetoric of the Republican game today is so false, that I trust it will ultimately be irrelevant.

But what struck me was that this kind of game being run at Obama is something the Republicans are taking right out of the Hillary Clinton playbook... which she and hers got from Karl Rove.

Here's the game:
1. Have a surrogate make a statement with obvious defamatory intent with clear links to your target without ever mentioning their name.
2. Watch the target's supporters get enraged.
3. Claim they are a bunch of hotheads, intentionally misreading the statement.
4. Claim they are only upset because they know it's true... even though you never actually said it.
5. Watch the media wet its pants discussing the event that has been denounced as a non-event by both sides.

Why would Bush & Co go there today? I can only come up with two reasons.
1. Because turning the already tender Jewish vote against Obama is the only seismic shift left, combined with crazy over coverage of White People Who Won't Vote For Obama, to try to help Clinton get the nomination.
2. Because Israel is the land of the Jews and where else better to call Obama a Muslim-loving liar?

The reality is, I think the discussion of whether you talk directly to nations you are in a cold conflict with or not is a subject worthy of debate. I happen to land on the Obama side of it and feel that Bush's "let them concede before we converse" policy has been terrible for the nation. But people of good conscience can disagree vigorously on this.

But backdooring someone is not a discussion. It is scummy politics. Same as it ever was… whichever side is doing it.

Posted by poland at 06:23 PM | Comments (32)

Pellicano Gets Got

So Pellicano was found GUILTY today... shocker.

Defending himself in court, he basically pleaded guilty, repeatedly crying, "I vant to tap alone!"

The story here remains... they never got the goods.

A one-eyed monkey with a limp could prove that Pellicano tapped phones illegally. The YEARS of this endless whinny saga was not intended to get Pellicano. The government was after the bigger fish, starting with Bert Fields and Brad Grey... and got bupkiss (aka Pellicano).

With 76 charges against him... how much more time will Anthony Pellicano get after living in jail for quite a while now?

And will anyone really care? Did you get the impression that any of the celebrities trotted out to testify and make this look like it was worth all the effort really could give two excremental releases?

Pellicano kept his mouth shut. Fields kept his mouth shut. Case closed.

The only hanging thread is the embarrassing harrassment prosecutions by the US government against small fish in this case like John McTiernan and Robert Pfeifer. The government has acknowledged openly that McTiernan's bad behavior was lying to someone who told him over the phone that he was an FBI agent. REALLY? Is that what stands as a prosecutable offense in this country? Not telling the truth to someone who tells you that they are a member of law enforcement? No wonder so many little old ladies and gentlemen are giving their pension checks to phone con men. In fact... isn't that really a Pellicano-esque game?

Okay... next! Thanks for the rancid fish.

Posted by poland at 01:43 PM | Comments (0)

This Week's Matson

larger size

Posted by poland at 12:37 PM | Comments (14)

BYOB - It's Thursday!!!

Posted by poland at 12:33 AM | Comments (92)

May 14, 2008

Hot Button - The Trouble With Trouble

There are two stories on the web today that may be 100% true… but also concern me deeply. It’s not about pulling back the curtain. That’s the job. But there is a kind of malignancy in the idea that what has always been gossip is now being published by bloggers as “news”… and then, followed up on, even without any real confirmations of anything nefarious, as a way of self-glorifying… even getting down to the “send me your complaints about people who pay you late so I can humiliate them too!” gamesmanship. But who can blame Ms Finke for her gutter urges. They have gotten her so much attention so far!

The rest...

Posted by poland at 05:32 PM | Comments (0)

Baaaaaaaad Idea

If you want my best Harvey Keitel imitation, it inevitably starts with a hunch, a lean into an imaginary window of a car with two party girls in it, and the grunting.... arrrrrrrrr..... unnnnnnnn... ahhhhhhh... and of course, the quick motion of the hand moving in sync with a tightening musculature.

I don’t need to see Nic Cage do any more masturbating on screen. Period.

But the more shocking element of this Nu-“The Place Where Celebrities Go To Make Films That Shouldn’t Be Made-Image project is the great Werner Herzog deciding to remake a 16-year-old film made by Herzog contemporary Abel Ferrara. Herzog has gone back into his own filmography to mine material. But Ferrara’s (who also co-wrote the film with three actors)???

Truth is, I think Ferrara will be revered in the future by the next generation of critics and cultists and that many of his films will eventually be remade.

For me, Cage redoing Bangkok Dangerous is about where the edge is before he falls off. On the other hand, this is a choice that could not be stopped and will surely be financed (on the back of National Treasure) with absolutely no risk to the funders. And I guess he deserves a pat on that back for that… or a pat somewhere… ewwwww… arrrrrrrrr..... unnnnnnnn... ahhhhhhh...

Posted by poland at 03:59 PM | Comments (20)

May 13, 2008

Cannes-y

Interesting Cannes kick-off from Tony & The Man at the NY Times…

It is a reminder that even the folks with the most secure job slots who are at the top of the group interested in a lot more than marketability are focusing on more than The Movie these days. Fortunately, they do a pretty darned good job laying it all out.

They said goodbye to Picturehouse and Warner Indie, though in their remembrance of the four most successful films from the companies, they are kind not to point out than none of these films were Cannes pick-ups anyway, though one of the films premiered at the fest.

The said goodbye to paid film criticism, though they gave critics a little too much credit for indie successes, since the Dependents have become dominant and rely on ads much the same way that the Majors do.

They said goodbye to the notion that there is a market for higher profile films that start in Cannes and actually have success in America based on that launching platform.

And they say hello to the four highest profile films for Americans, put together by high profile American directors Eastwood, Soderbergh, and writer-turned-director Charlie Kaufman… but not before giving a nod to films likely to play a lot of US fests and a week or two in NY and L.A. from The Dardennes, Nuri Bilge Ceylan, and Lucrecia Martel. Perfect.

And more kindness and restraint in not pointing out that Cannes is opening with an already-Miramaxed film from the great Fernando Meirelles, closes with Sundance also-ran What Just Happened?, and that there will be highly-covered out-of-competition films include such natural Cannes fare as Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull, Kung Fu Panda, and Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

I sincerely applaud the restraint and thought that went into that. Why complain and smack the easy targets? Instead, the duo leads towards the idea of journalists embracing what they feel is really important and not just get drawn to the brightest light like free-booze-seeking moths.

What would be really, really interesting to read at festival’s end is just how many films the duo really think are worth worldwide attention. That might be the saddest column of them all, as the number, I’m afraid, will be as low as it has been at most other festivals in recent years.

Posted by poland at 09:03 PM | Comments (5)

Wither Weinstein?

It just screams, "OUCH!"

How bad is it for The Weinsteins when they can't get Michael Moore on board for his next film... which is being called a sequel to Fahrenheit 9/11, but apparently will not be specifically one, avoiding the entanglement with The Weinsteins?

Like Hillary Clinton, The Weinsteins are like Mike Myers in Halloween... every time you think they're dead, should be dead, must be dead, they just keep getting up. (Of course, you rarely get to be the good guy when you keep coming back from the dead.)

But this time... aside from remaining muscular by keeping a ton of balls in the air at the same time... alive, but not the same... not nearly the same...

(Edited 8p - for stupid error on slasher film history.)

Posted by poland at 04:15 PM | Comments (17)

Tony Noms

The one sore thumb, stand-out, HUGE miss in these nominations? Jackie Hoffman, who should have won the Tony easily for her performance in Xanadu and her sidekick in the show, Mary Testa, in the Featured Actress-Musical category. Maybe they cancelled each other out. But both women kick Andrea Martin's butt, killing with scalpels while Martin is left overplaying to the big barn of a theater that left Young Frankenstein with just two other nominations.

It is a testament to how YF was disregarded that it missed in lighting, sound, and costume, while grabbing a nod unavoidably for the set. How much did Tony voters rage against Young Frankenstein? They nominated the ultimately mediocre Cry-Baby instead... a show that apparently had no actors in it, as none were nominated. Christopher Fitzgerald would be a serious contender to win Best Featured Actor - Musical... but won't because the voters are going to roll over for Passing Strange or In The Heights as a vote for the new, though South Pacific is likely to come up from behind Sunday in the Park and win many revival awards... except probably Jenna Russell, who will be coronated with a win for Sunday.

Tony voters also overlooked - though not neccessarily a tragedy here - The Little Mermaid, which has become a consistent top 10 grosser, and Cat on a Hot Tin Roof.

Macbeth also got a lot of love, while Laura Linney was left alone while her show nemesis got his due. Rufus Sewell grabbed a Roick-n-Roll nom ahead of Brian Cox. And were Tom Wopat and Faith Prince given nominations as a reward for suffering through the drudgery of A Catered Affair for all these months? (Harvey got zilch, further insult coming when The LIttle Mermaid got an Original score nod mostly for five 20-year-old songs.)

It's also pretty funny, though charming in its way, to see Arthur Laurents nominated for recreating his direction from the 1974 revival of Gypsy, for which he was Tony nominated and Drama Desk-winning. He will be about one month shy of his 90th birthday at the Tonys... will he get a lifetime nod for his remarkable career in the same year Sondheim gets a lifetime achievement award? As with all, we'll see...

The complete list of noms after the jump...

Musical: "Cry-Baby," "In the Heights," "Passing Strange," "Xanadu."

Revival-Musical: "Grease," "Gypsy," "South Pacific," "Sunday in the Park With George."

Book-Musical: "Cry-Baby" (Mark O'Donnell and Thomas Meehan), "In the Heights" (Quiara Alegria Hudes), "Passing Strange" (Stew), "Xanadu" (Douglas Carter Beane).

Actor-Musical: Daniel Evans, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Lin-Manuel Miranda, "In the Heights"; Stew, "Passing Strange"; Paulo Szot, "South Pacific"; Tom Wopat, "A Catered Affair."

Actress-Musical: Kerry Butler, "Xanadu"; Patti LuPone, "Gypsy"; Kelli O'Hara, "South Pacific"; Faith Prince, "A Catered Affair"; Jenna Russell, "Sunday in the Park With George."

Original Score (music and/or lyrics): "Cry-Baby" (Music & Lyrics: David Javerbaum and Adam Schlesinger), "In the Heights" (Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda), "The Little Mermaid" (Music: Alan Menken, Lyrics: Howard Ashman and Glenn Slater), "Passing Strange" (Music: Stew and Heidi Rodewald, Lyrics: Stew).

Featured Actor-Musical: Daniel Breaker, "Passing Strange"; Danny Burstein, "South Pacific"; Robin De Jesus, "In the Heights"; Christopher Fitzgerald, "Young Frankenstein"; Boyd Gaines, "Gypsy."

Featured Actress-Musical: Laura Benanti, "Gypsy"; de'Adre Aziza, "Passing Strange"; Andrea Martin, "Young Frankenstein"; Olga Merediz, "In the Heights"; Loretta Ables Sayre, "South Pacific."

Play (and playwrights): "August: Osage County" (Tracy Letts), "Rock 'n' Roll" (Tom Stoppard), "The Seafarer" (Conor McPherson), "The 39 Steps" (Patrick Barlow).

Revival-Play: "Boeing-Boeing," "The Homecoming," "Les Liaisons Dangereuses," "Macbeth."

Actor-Play: Ben Daniels, "Les Liaisons Dangereuses"; Laurence Fishburne, "Thurgood"; Mark Rylance, "Boeing-Boeing"; Rufus Sewell, "Rock 'n' Roll"; Patrick Stewart, "Macbeth."

Actress-Play: Eve Best, "The Homecoming"; Deanna Dunagan, "August: Osage County"; Kate Fleetwood, "Macbeth"; S. Epatha Merkerson, "Come Back, Little Sheba"; Amy Morton, "August: Osage County."

Featured Actor-Play: Bobby Cannavale, "Mauritius"; Raul Esparza, "The Homecoming"; Conleth Hill, "The Seafarer"; Jim Norton, "The Seafarer"; David Pittu, "Is He Dead?"

Featured Actress-Play: Sinead Cusack, "Rock 'n' Roll"; Mary McCormack, "Boeing-Boeing"; Laurie Metcalf, "November"; Martha Plimpton, "Top Girls"; Rondi Reed, "August: Osage County."

And...

Direction-Play: Maria Aitken, "The 39 Steps"; Conor McPherson, "The Seafarer"; Anna D. Shapiro, "August: Osage County"; Matthew Warchus, "Boeing-Boeing."

Direction-Musical: Sam Buntrock, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Thomas Kail, "In the Heights"; Arthur Laurents, "Gypsy"; Bartlett Sher, "South Pacific."

Choreography: Rob Ashford, "Cry-Baby"; Andy Blankenbuehler, "In the Heights"; Christopher Gattelli, "South Pacific"; Dan Knechtges, "Xanadu."

Orchestrations: Jason Carr, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Alex Lacamoire and Bill Sherman, "In the Heights"; Stew and Heidi Rodewald; "Passing Strange"; Jonathan Tunick, "A Catered Affair."

Scenic Design-Play: Peter McKintosh, "The 39 Steps"; Scott Pask, "Les Liaisons Dangereuses"; Todd Rosenthal, "August: Osage County"; Anthony Ward, "Macbeth."

Scenic Design-Musical: David Farley and Timothy Bird & The Knifedge Creative Network, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Anna Louizos, "In the Heights"; Robin Wagner, "Young Frankenstein"; Michael Yeargen, "South Pacific."

Costume Design-Play: Gregory Gale, "Cyrano de Bergerac"; Rob Howell, "Boeing-Boeing"; Katrina Lindsay, "Les Liaisons Dangereuses"; Peter McKintosh, "The 39 Steps."

Costume Design-Musical: David Farley, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Martin Pakledinaz, "Gypsy"; Paul Tazewell, "In the Heights"; Catherine Zuber, "South Pacific."

Lighting Design-Play: Kevin Adams, "The 39 Steps"; Howard Harrison, "Macbeth"; Donald Holder, "Les Liaisons Dangereuses"; Ann G. Wrightson, "August: Osage County."

Lighting Design-Musical: Ken Billington, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Howell Binkley, "In the Heights"; Donald Holder, "South Pacific," Natasha Katz, "The Little Mermaid."

Sound Design-Play: Simon Baker, "Boeing-Boeing"; Adam Cork, "Macbeth"; Ian Dickson, "Rock 'n' Roll"; Mic Pool, "The 39 Steps."

Sound Design-Musical: Acme Sound Partners, "In the Heights"; Sebastian Frost, "Sunday in the Park With George"; Scott Lehrer, "South Pacific"; Dan Moses Schreier, "Gypsy."

Posted by poland at 11:22 AM | Comments (13)

Lunch With... Joel Silver

The interview

Posted by poland at 12:51 AM | Comments (21)

May 12, 2008

Tonys In The Morning

The Tony Nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. I have been enjoying the Broadway season without foisting it on the blog. There was always whining about pieces… so your loss. Some of you might want to expand your game.

In any case…

I have decided to throw together a list of what I see coming tomorrow morning. Unfortunately, without a NY trip in the last six weeks or so, I am short a bunch of shows that turned up late in the season: Boeing-Boeing, Cat In A Hot Tin Roof, Gypsy, In The Heights, Les Liasons Dangereuses, Macbeth, Passing Strange, Thurgood, and Top Girls.

Easily the most competitive category for a nomination – really the only category that will be really hard to get into – is Lead Actor in a Play. It’s brutal. You have The Seafarer, with a bunch of great performances and no clear lead. You have to wonder whether Tony voters will write off Nathan Lane for doing a somewhat familiar turn – brilliantly – in November. (Also, a great show that has no chance against Osage.) Terrence Howard comes to Broadway. Can they really pass on Brian Cox, great in Rock-n-Roll… or Kevin Kline, albeit miscast in Cyrano… or Morgan Freeman, a great actor having some discomfort on stage this time? There’s also The Homecoming to consider.

You’ll notice some open slots below. Hard to know where they will land. It was a season with just enough great shows to count on one hand.

And now, some picks –

NEW MUSICAL
In The Heights
Passing Strange
Young Frankenstein
Xanadu

MUSICAL REVIVAL
South Pacific
Sunday In The Park With George
Gypsy

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Evans
Boyd Gaines
Paulo Szot
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Stew

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Christopher Fitzgerald
Danny Burstein
Harvey Feirstein
Colman Domingo

ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Kerry Butler
Jenna Russell
Patti Lupone

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Mary Testa
Andrea Martin
Laura Benanti
Jackie Hoffman

BEST NEW PLAY
August: Osage County
Rock-n-Roll
The Seafarer
November

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Boeing Boeing
The Homecoming
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof

BEST ACTOR / PLAY
Brian Cox
Nathan Lane
Ben Daniels
Patrick Stewart
Mark Rylance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR / PLAY
Micheal Maguire
David Pittu
Dylan Baker
James Earl Jones
Jim Norton

BEST ACTRESS / PLAY
Amy Morton
Sinead Cusack
Jennifer Garner
Christine Baranski
Anika Noni Rose

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS / PLAY
Deanna Dunagan
Rondi Reed
Laurie Metcalfe

Posted by poland at 07:19 PM | Comments (11)

BYOB Monday

Congrats to editorial cartoonist RJ Matson on the birth of his new son, Milo.

Anything else going on out there?

Posted by poland at 11:35 AM | Comments (65)

May 11, 2008

The Last Words On Clinton?

The New York Times' Jo Becker and Christopher Drew put together a very well researched piece on Obama, that offers both his strengths and weaknesses quite fairly, I think. Unlike many of the hurredly thrown together pieces about the South Side politics of Chicago, this reads like it was written by reporters who got themselves familiar with what it is really like in Hyde Park.

The piece offers some strong proof of Obama as politician, not religious figure. But it also makes the argument that Obama understands the value of finding solutions instead of wallowing in dogmatism, even at the cost of some support. If I were just pushing Obama, I don't think I'd be thrilled. But I believe that editorial non-partisanship is a dying form and that this piece really offers it in spades.

On the flip side... and probably for the last time...

Two guys named James Andomian& Dan Strange wrote and assembled the video below, using the great film, Downfall, as a basis. It is brutally funny...

... but it's not nearly as brutal as SNL's slaughter of Clinton this week... which was so unsympathetic that it felt a bit like piling on and ass covering, especially after there was so much Clinton sympathy in recent months. It's interesting to me, how when a comedy show gets it wrong for a while, really taking sides, and then shifts so dramatically to the other side when the other side wins. Did they really just figure out who Ms. Clinton is?

Posted by poland at 02:49 PM | Comments (19)

Weekend Estimates by Klady - May 11

Posted by poland at 10:14 AM | Comments (74)

May 10, 2008

Friday Estimates by Klady

What's fascinating from the start is that Box Office Mojo has both What Happens In Vegas and Speed Racer at least $300k or about 5% lower... and has Iron Man a whopping $2.8 million higher than Klady.

Meanwhile, Brad Grey's #3 Girl has Iron Man at $15m - avoiding the 65% drop that Klady estimates - and was actually $500k higher on the Friday estimate for Speed last night... and lower on Vegas last night than this morning. (Of course, some people can't do math either. A $15 million Friday is a 57% drop, not 62%.)

What does all this mean?

It means that box office obsession and confusion are now in charge and that people who don't actually know much about box office, but who are being "sourced" by people with vested interests, are going to make Saturdays interesting all summer long.

Meanwhile, Iron Man dropping anything less than 55% for the weekend after that opening is a very strong showing. And anything more, a pretty average showing. We'll see.

Speed Racer and What Happens In Vegas, not so much.

We really don't know the future of either film yet. The slot is more promising for legs for Vegas than for Speed with Narnia coming up next weekend. But the question of who Speed Racer is playing to is really the issue at hand.

Both films are in line with Monster-in-Law, which opened in this slot 2 summers ago. Thing is, for Fox, that is comforting. M-i-L got to $83 million and it's hard to imagine that Fox was expecting more from their comedy. This is not comforting to WB, where they are well behind Daddy Day Care, a movie that got slaughtered by the critics from the same summer slot, but still managed to crack $100 million with family audiences. But again... the question is whether the under 12s are going to see this film or if their parents are going to push them off and make them wait for DVD, since the