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May 07, 2008
Declawed
There is something sad about seeing a wild animal declawed or defanged.
And as much as last night's Clinton speech felt like a lap around the stadium to acknowledge and be acknowledged, it was this morning's speech in West Virginia that marked the clear end of the Clinton campaign.
There was no mention of Obama at all. There were none of the big narrative hooks of the last two months of campaigning. And for about half the speech, there was not even any specificity about who should be implementing the ideas she was gently advocating.
But even beyond the speech was the body language. She had the emotional slump of a sports team playing out the string late in the season when the playoffs are well out of reach. Of course, she is capable of rising above the failure of her candidacy, like great athletes that play hard even when all they can do is win the one game they are playing. But she’s clearly gone into second place mode.
The key revelation of the morning is Clinton’s $6.5 million loan to her campaign… which now becomes part of the $11.5 million in debt that her campaign has to pay her back. Can she generate enough money from the position she is now in to both pay for a campaign and to cut into that debt? An even bigger question… can she generate enough money from this passive position to pay for her campaign without going further into personal debt?
The Clintons are very wealthy, but they have now invested about 20% of their personal wealth into her campaign. That leaves them with a lot of money, but rich people don’t stay rich by siphoning off chunks of their after-tax income with no possible return. And the very real question of whether Bill Clinton will be the cash cow he has been comes into play as his role as The Most Powerful Democrat is usurped by Obama. No one is sending The Clintons back to Arkansas to live in a trailer. But they have to be feeling that pain now.
And like Hussein hiding in a hole in a farm, it is a little pathetic… and creates sympathy even from someone who has been as enraged by the behavior of this campaign in recent months.
I expect to get irritated in the days to come with the media again, as they shift from beating the drum for all things negative about Obama in the guise of “it’s what the Republicans will do in the fall” to finding out and pushing into the light every little pain of the failed Clinton campaign, as it fades. I expect one big issue to be about her fundraising to fund a debt.
Another will be how she dances with Obama. In the old days, a campaign with a lot of money, like Obama’s, would pay some of the opponent’s debt as part of the “exit settlement.” But that would come under enormous scrutiny in this every-second media age. She started to make the case for a VP slot today, citing her constituency, with whom Obama has had a hard time. If she is the VP candidate, him paying down her debt would not be as much of an issue.
One private pundit said this week, “Obama’s first Profile in Courage will be saying, ‘No’ to Hillary as VP.”
We shall see.
My favorite moments last night, aside from the great speech by Obama - which reminded me once again that he now has an advantage in that McCain can’t sell the “it’s just words” crap with the passion that Clinton did, McCain's inherent decency working against him in a bit of irony – was watching the guys on FoxNews sit there deflated and almost speechless at times.
Clinton lost last night. It's over. The media is finally beyond the willingness to rationalize that she can overtake Obama. And the choice of when to officially concede will be negotiated, not won. But the biggest loser? The Republican Party.
And wasn’t that always the point?
Posted by poland at May 7, 2008 10:09 AM
Comments
Comparing Hillary to Hussein. Nice DP, is there really no other visual metaphor you could come up with, or can Obama fans only compare Hillary to tyranical dictators.
I voted for Senator Clinton, I hoped she was going to be our next president. But last night was indeed the end of the line. I had not joined the call for her to drop out, knowing there were different possible scenarios, but no more. Last night's tally makes it literally impossible for her to win. I'll concede it, and I hoped she'd do it last night. But it looks like she'll wait for Oregon and West Virginia to vote. And if she's come this far, why not let two more states let their votes be counted.
I hope you Obama fans take the victory with class and stride.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at May 7, 2008 11:06 AM
"But the biggest loser? The Republican Party."
I've heard that one before. Famous last words.
Posted by: Blackcloud
at May 7, 2008 11:07 AM
"I hope you Obama fans take the victory with class and stride."
In an election year filled with unknowns, that this will not happen is perhaps the one certain.
I suspect an Obama presidency will be no more harmonious than a Bush, McCain or Clinton one will and could be worse when any criticism of the man or his policies will lead to the charge of "racism" from his supporters.
Posted by: Nicol D
at May 7, 2008 11:15 AM
Clinton hasn't done herself any favors, especially with that Gas Tax Holiday plan that no one thinks is a good idea.
Posted by: brack
at May 7, 2008 11:20 AM
Newt isn't worried for nothing Blackcloud, though at the same time I never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to lose presidential elections they really should win.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at May 7, 2008 11:21 AM
I sympathize with Hillary too, if Obama hadn't run this year (and I really expected him to wait until '12 or '16 and build up a little more experience) she would have had it in the bag, and I would have been happy to vote for her. But she really did herself no favors by going so negative. And that, Nicol, is where I think Obama as Prime Minister - I mean, President - would be different, because he's taken such great pains to stay above the fray, to not get bogged down in the standard mudslinging. And to accuse his mainstream followers of reverse racism says, to me, that you haven't been paying attention.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 11:29 AM
"I never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to lose presidential elections they really should win."
Yeah, like the last two. I don't know what it is about the Dems, but you never know when they're going to have a Bartman moment and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Obama had a great end to what was looking like a dismal fortnight. But winning primaries ultimately means nothing. November 4 is the only election that counts.
Posted by: Blackcloud
at May 7, 2008 11:29 AM
The first hint that it's over? After last night's results Hillary canceled all her scheduled appearances for today -- TV and public.
Hillary blew it by embracing the Rush Limbaugh crowd. When you get into bed with the right wing you do what the right wing says -- or else.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at May 7, 2008 11:29 AM
Yeah, and then she uncancelled one in West Virginia today.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 11:32 AM
"And to accuse his mainstream followers of reverse racism says, to me, that you haven't been paying attention."
Exactly, Jeff. I haven't paid attention at all. I just sit up here in my igloo, drinking my Canadian Club while frying some backbacon in a pan over an open fire before pouring maple syrup on it. My AM transitor radio constantly blares Trooper's "Raise a Little Hell".
Thanks for setting me straight.
Case you haven't noticed Jeff, Canadians, pay a - lot - of attention to American politics because Canada is America's most significant trading partner.
Who is elected and why - does - make a difference and - does - affect Canada in a way that it does not most other parts of the world.
To try to infer that I should not partake in these discussions because I reside "up north" is to show a great ignorance about world politics and economics.
NAFTA has and will play a huge part in this election and last time I checked...that affected Canada. So do issues like border security, importing of goods, national defence and the economy.
Posted by: Nicol D
at May 7, 2008 11:42 AM
Nicol, you don't understand me. Are you interested in an explanation or should I not waste my time?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 11:46 AM
Who inferred that you shouldn't take part in the discussion? If you're referring to jeffmcm that seems like a pretty big overreaction to what he wrote.
Posted by: Krazy Eyes
at May 7, 2008 11:47 AM
I'm just going to point out that the title of this post is a little sexist.
Otherwise, I'm perfectly willing to do what needs to be done and psych myself up about Obama at this point. I hope he and his supporters make it easier than it has been.
Next up: A strident "blame Hillary" chorus if Obama loses in November.
Posted by: Rob
at May 7, 2008 11:53 AM
Jeff,
Please take all the time in the world to explain. But everytime of late that I engage in the political discussions here you always put in a snide reference to Canada as a subtext of implying I should not partake.
If you intend differently...then you should be clear. You do not exactly have a rep around here for being open to new thoughts and ideas.
Remember, your comments to me come in the context of our relationship on this blog which has been acrimonious at the best of times. When I see you respond to me...I rarely interpret it with the most noblest of intentions.
Posted by: Nicol D
at May 7, 2008 11:54 AM
Actually, Nicol, I was trying to think about what exactly it is that bugs me about you when you write about American politics as if you lived here and I couldn't - you just bug me. But to your credit, you're less annoying than the liberal loonies who show up with posts like "Reason #4587 why I'm right? Because _____."
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 11:54 AM
I will add that a big part of the problem is the many months, or maybe it was years, you refused to admit that you were indeed not American. Where I come from, we call that a pretense.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 11:57 AM
I never said I was or was not an American. You were for the most part the only one who ever asked me that question and it was always as a way of implying I should not partake in the discussion.
It was an ad hominen attack to discredit what I was saying and avoid my idea. I decided I would not play your game.
Eventually, I just didn't care anymore.
Where I come from, it's called not letting the other side dictate the terms of the game.
Posted by: Nicol D
at May 7, 2008 12:00 PM
Well, Nicol, that's your view. My view is that you'd start a discussion on, say, social topics like homosexuality or abortion or something and all your examples would be from Canada, and since that struck me as strange I'd ask "Do you live in Canada?" which was always meant just to clear up my confusion and add context - sorry if you thought differently - and you never answered, and it didn't make sense, especially since there are other posters here from New Zealand and Australia and even Thailand. And since your national origin has zero relevance to a philosophical argument over social issues, I could only assume you were being coy or deceptive or something.
Sorry if you felt like you were being persecuted, but I was really just confused and your what-seemed-like-evasiveness didn't help.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 12:18 PM
First Wells, then Poland, now Ebert...
http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2008/05/hillary_and_bill_the_movie.html#more
Could it be that this campaign is the most cinematic thing worth talking about?
I mean the guy hasn't even reviewed Iron Man.
Posted by: Crow T Robot
at May 7, 2008 12:19 PM
And to accuse his mainstream followers of reverse racism says, to me, that you haven't been paying attention.
what about this then, jeff?
http://betsyspage.blogspot.com/2008/05/obama-image-control.html
Posted by: hendhogan
at May 7, 2008 12:28 PM
That's not the same thing Nicol is talking about, which was "Don't criticize me, I'm black!" as if he was some kind of Chapelle character. This is your same-old same-old political imagery stuff. I don't think it's a big deal. Are you suggesting it's a form of lying? If Obama was doing really, really poorly with white voters I might agree, but you can't win an election with only black voters.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 12:42 PM
ahh, misunderstood.
but the question remains, if he's doing so well with white voters, why bother with the spin? it's not lying, it's spin. there must be some concern in the obama camp or why pull that kinda crap?
Posted by: hendhogan
at May 7, 2008 12:48 PM
Well yeah, because Hillary still did/does better among working-class white voters. Obviously it's an image thing that's tailored towards a specific audience, in the case you mention, to a TV crowd. And it speaks more towards an entrenched racism - that if he's perceivedas only being surrounded by adoring black crowds it could turn off certain other types of voters.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 12:51 PM
Why do you keep bringing Wells in here, Crow. If you choose to have him in your life, good luck to you. But he is meaningless in here.
And Nicol... I respect your political leanings and how you are often off on your own in here. But the "every criticism is seen as racism" shit will not fly. It is, simply, a lie. And ironically, it is a lie loaded with not racism, but the use of race as a cynical tool.
I only times I have called "racist" in this election is when race has been used by the Clinton campaign to try to separate voters from considering Obama... in a way that her being a woman has never been used by the Obama camp.
Rev Wright is an issue. A minor one. But I think the issue of him has been a reflection of him being a new face, more than an issue of race. That said, it has also allowed some people who are racists an excuse to hide behind.
Bill Clinton comparing South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's win there was not racist. But it was a malevolent use of race as a way of connecting Obama to a losing and pretty much hopeless former candidate.
McCain's age and health are real issues. But again, I don't expect Obama to lean on them. And if McCain's doctors give him a good bill of health, his age should not be a blockade to him being president.... except in how his thinking is a product of his lifespan.
Anyway... I was offended by the argument that a vote against Clinton was a vote for misogyny, that men who like Obama are wild-eyed loonies, that McCain is too old.
Race was injected into this campaign by The Clintons, who sent out Gerry Ferraro to do the dirty work and then, when caught with their hand in the dirty tricks cookie jar, revived a years old issue with Rev Wright and beat it like a drum for the last 2 months. So don't be pissing all over Obama supporters for whining about race. It's not only unfair, it's a lie.
Posted by: David Poland
at May 7, 2008 01:00 PM
but, jeff, a tv crowd is national. how is that tailored? race is obviously an issue. and being made so by obama as much as anyone. shouldn't the image being presented be one of all colors on the stage behind him? if the message is about uniting, shouldn't that be the image?
i don't understand the disconnect.
Posted by: hendhogan
at May 7, 2008 01:12 PM
The Ebert piece is lovely...somebody get Peter Morgan and Stephen Frears (or their American counterparts) on the phone. It'll be Oscar #3 for Streep in 2011.
Posted by: Rob
at May 7, 2008 01:28 PM
Well Hendhogan, it's two things. First of all, in general Obama has to fight the battle that he's not just the 'black candidate' if he wants to win over the voters that have been going to Clinton. And from the sound of that event, it sounds like creating an 'all colors' image on the stage behind him was what was being done at a 75% black event.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 01:30 PM
no, jeff, read it again. kicked out an asian girl for an all white background. and again, isn't it a misrepresentation to not have any african americans up there at a 75% black even?
Posted by: hendhogan
at May 7, 2008 02:07 PM
"The media is finally beyond the willingness to rationalize that she can overtake Obama."
David: Actually, not all of the media have been guilty of this. To name only the most obvious example: Keith Olbermann pronounced her campaign dead weeks and weeks ago. Honest.
But I know what you mean about having mixed emotions. I remember watching the final Dole/Clinton debate in 1996, and, right in the middle of it, I found myself feeling very sorry for an obviously faltering Dole. It wasn't just the giveaway look in his eyes -- the look that indicated that he, too, knew the game was lost. I felt like, right before my very eyes, the WWII generation represented by Dole was slipping into obsolescence, in terms of wielding political power. Now, mind you, I voted for Bill Clinton, in 1992 as well as 1996, and have never regretted it for a moment. But at that moment -- well, yeah, I was a little sad.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at May 7, 2008 02:33 PM
It doesn't say 'kicked out', it just says 'moved', which I agree they probably shouldn't have done. And I'm sure that if the event was as big as it was, there were no shortage of black faces to be seen.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at May 7, 2008 02:35 PM
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