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July 31, 2008
Bat Haiku
You know, I love it when a commenter has a stroke of genius... or in some cases, just a stroke.
But seriously, folks...
The idea of the BAT HAIKU came up and, heck, why not give it a try?
Nolan up to Bat
So much more than a comic
But a comic still
The Joker is cool
Makes The Batman just a mouse
Dent's teeth feel the breeze
Your turn...
And yes, there will be a prize. (We'll figure out what it is in time.)
Posted by dpoland at 05:17 PM | Comments (59)
More Great News For Paramount
They landed Brett Ratner... WOOO HOOO!
Take a breath....
Ratner has good taste. He can make $100 million look like the most beautiful $75 million you've ever seen on screen.
So what is Paramount getting itself into?
Well, the relationship seems mostly about Beverly Hills Cop IV, being written by the geniuses who "wrote" Wanted... I seem to remember a few words somewhere in that crapfest... and soon to be directed by Ratner, who will surely have the very hottest ethnic women in Hollywood in the backround of every scene of Axel Foley walking around Beverly Hills.
The biggest question about the "first look deal" is whether Ratner can deliver his first "tentpole" that's not a 3rd X-Men or a Rush Hour film to gross over $210 milion worldwide.
Even though the last Beverly Hills Cop was 14 years ago - have you notcied that Par is now acting like MGM and teh Walking TE Corpse Of New Line, desperately trying to revive any former hit? - it is a sequel. So there is no point in comparing it to Ratner's originals, none of which has grossed as much as $125m worldwide. But Red Dragon, at $209m ww, seems fair to worry about. And the fact that Rush Hour 3 grossed less than either of its predesessors domestically and about the same as the first film worldwide (27% off of RH2) is also a cause of concern.
A decade into his career as a director, there is no indication that Ratner is a better bet on a project than, say, Dennis Dugan or Brian Robbins. Goiod luck all around.
1 - X - Men: The Last Stand - $459.3 - 2006
2 - Rush Hour 2 - $347.3 - 2001
3 - Rush Hour 3 - $255.0 - 2007
4 - Rush Hour - $244.4 - 1998
5 - Red Dragon - $209.2 - 2002
6 - The Family Man - $124.7 - 2000
7 - After the Sunset - $61.3 - 2004
8 - Money Talks - $48.4 - 1997
Posted by dpoland at 11:59 AM | Comments (353)
Selling A Paramount Turnaround
The Variety headline reads, "Paramount films fuel Viacom - (sub-head) Revenues up 21% to $3.9 billion last quarter"
How does one take the trade seriously when they don't offer the real facts, but the spin as a headline?
The real deal from the Paramount/Viacom press release....
Was Paramount the cause of the increase in overall revenues (not net, which is down)? Philippe Dauman leads with something else - "The advantages of our growing multiple revenue streams were evident in the quarter, as we delivered double-digit growth in both our affiliate and ancillary revenues, led by the top-selling Rock Band music
video game."
Then, he gets into the movies.
And what are the actual numbers of the movie side?
In terms of box office, the studio had about $863 million in domestic gross box office dollars compared to $536m in the same quarter last year… a 61% increase.
But the report notes an 84% increase. I assume that reflects a significant increase in international revenues from the three summer movies vs last year’s primary international earner, Shrek The Third… approximately $130m for the quarter.
Paramount produced films, as opposed to DreamWorks produced films, had a much bigger upturn this quarter, which I am surprised was not emphasized. Last year, the quarter was $486 million from DW and $50 million from Paramount proper. This year, it’s $663 million Par and just $200m DW.
But it’s Operating Income that is of greater interest to me. It’s up 291%... but that’s only from $22 million to $86 million.
Disney’s quarterly report for this quarter just came out. (Variety's Headline - "Disney revenue inches forward") Their Operating Income for “Studio Entertainment” (movies) third quarter 2007 (which matches the same months of the year at Paramount’s second quarter) was $192 million compared to Paramount’s 86 million.
What’s really interesting is that Disney’s 3Q 2007 revenues for film were $1.8 billion… the same number as Paramount’s this summer. But the Operating Revenues are more than $100 million better when Disney had that number.
Why?
Indiana Jones barely exists in the quarter because of the studio’s deal with Lucas/Spielberg/Ford. Paramount netted about $50 million on Iron Man in theatrical, so that alone is a big piece of that leap, with marketing staff costs the only out-of-pocket for the studio. Kung Fu Panda is good for another $30 million or so. The entire rest of the schedule represented less than $120 million in worldwide gross and some small amount of Operating Income.
On the other hand, Disney owned their two hits, Pirates 3 and Ratatouille outright.
Also, it seems that Paramount’s percentage of revenues that came from Home Entertainment this last quarter was higher than Disney’s in last year’s summer quarter.
But let’s put last year aside… THIS year, with no Pirates movie which cause Operating Income for Studio Entertainment to drop 49% in this quarter compared to last year, the OI is still $97 million… to Paramount’s $86 million. That’s with about $300 million in total theatrical revenues at Disney versus $863 million at Paramount.
Of course, these numbers include DVD and ancillary sales and apparently, television production, which is stronger at Disney than at Paramount these days. Still…
Scariest for Paramount is anticipating next year’s 3rd Quarter announcement. They are relying on DWA’s Monsters vs Aliens (8% distrib fee only) and Star Trek and a small drama, Case 39 to replace the big revenues of this year’s Iron Man and Kung Fu Panda. The one thing on their side is that they own Star Trek outright, so if the film can escape the series’ atmosphere in which no Star Trek movie has ever grossed over $150m worldwide… well, breakeven is probably around $250 million worldwide (figuring in ancillaries) so the $50 million cleared on Iron Man is at about $350 million worldwide.
I’m not actually angry at Variety or The LA Times for their failure to get into the numbers in a real way, even if the Variety headline is a bit of a scam. The sad part is that I am used to these industry-focused publications offering the surface and not the substance for many years. And it’s kind of sad to watch when they attack each other about whose shallow coverage is less shallow.
Posted by dpoland at 11:41 AM | Comments (6)
July 30, 2008
Matson Is All Thumbs
Posted by dpoland at 02:01 PM | Comments (9)
Hot Button - Circles Of Lies
Oy... this is what I get for watching The View.
The ladies spent 5 minutes discussing how the Western Wall prayer that was taken out of the wall and published in Israel was, according to the paper that published the presumably private document, Ma'ariv, pre-approved for publication by Obama even before the note was stuck in the wall. The claim from an unnamed Ma'ariv editor was legitimized by publication in The Jerusalem Post as part of a story about a potential legal probe and boycott of Ma'ariv for publishing the note.
The Wall Street Journal pushed the story further by publishing a series of web attacks on Obama without bothering to do what they do best... report news.
"Maariv's response: "Obama's note was published in Maariv and other international publications following his authorization to make the content of the note public. Obama submitted a copy of the note to media outlets when he left his hotel in Jerusalem. Moreover, since he is not Jewish, there is no violation of privacy as there would be for a Jewish person who places a note in the wall."
Problem is... the story was a lie.
Posted by dpoland at 10:43 AM | Comments (13)
July 29, 2008
The Swing Vote Campaign That You Should Have Seen
Posted by dpoland at 10:41 PM | Comments (13)
BYOEarthquake
If an earthquake hits Hollywood in late July, does anyone actually feel it?
Posted by dpoland at 03:11 PM | Comments (27)
Hot Button - Batting Around Titanic Numbers
Is it anything less than a dereliction of duty, whether it be Horn's choice or his editors' choice, to not even mention the worldwide box office success of Titanic, which really is what makes the box office landmark the equal of what “Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak is to baseball.”
================================
No Batman film has ever even matched the level internationally that it reached at home. But let’s give The Dark Knight that. $500 million at home and $500 million overseas. You’re $850 million away from Titanic.
But let’s give it more. International at 60%! So… $500 million at home, $750 million internationally. And we’re still almost $600 million away from Titanic’s number.
Do you want to believe in miracles? How about $600 million domestic and $900 million worldwide? You’re still almost $350 million away from Titanic.
Posted by dpoland at 01:12 PM | Comments (79)
July 28, 2008
El Mummy Tres Sucks And Sucks Hard
Just when you thought it might be safe to go back to a Rob Cohen movie…
The Uwe Boll of studio film. A man who makes Brett Ratner look like a cinematic intellectual. He brought you Stealth, easily the worst summer movie of 2005… and now, they gave him the Mummy franchise to kill off once and for all.
How bad is The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor? Well, doesn’t the name tell you almost everything you need to know? Close your eyes for a second and try to remember that whole title. Dare you!
How bad is it?
Mario Bello, an excellent actress, gives one of the worst performances of her career and probably the worst work by any actress this summer.
Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, living legends… barely in the movie.
The movie starts with an 11 minute voice-overed introduction, trying to explain the insanely complicated story for this incredibly simplistic movie.
Universal green lit two summer movies with the same plot… good guys trying to stop bad guys from reviving ancient armies that were put to sleep by some form of hoodoo.
Did I mention that Rob Cohen, who appears on the dance floor at the end of the film, is an epic hack… perhaps the worst working director in the studio game?
And what’s an action movie without the Yeti Protection Program, in which Yetis inexplicably turn up and save various days? Really? And how many times do you think they “look” at the camera and scream like Jurassic Park dinos? Too many.
Cohen, the man who hacked up Dragonheart, even manages to turn one character, out of nowhere, into a flying three headed dragon… then a Muppet-like monster of no specific clarity or origin… and then back to having some really bad skin covering in pottery. Oy.
The movie really does feel like the direct-to-dvd version of The Mummy, complete with cheesy, already-done CG effects, and best of all, not a single actual mummy in the entire movie.
I haven’t seen The Love Guru or Space Chimps, so I can’t be sure, but The Mummy:TotDE seems like it has a real shot at Worst Film Of The Summer awards. It was much worse than Meet Dave or Journey To The Center Of The Earth or The Happening. Really special.
It’s quite a feat that Universal has managed to get the movie just three days away from release without a single review from anyone on RT – pro, civilian, web or print - because I think tonight’s all-media was the first time, aside from the junket, that anyone saw this epic mess.
Ouch.
Posted by dpoland at 11:44 PM | Comments (104)
P-n-P Blog Factory
I was planning on holding an update on The Pete-n-Pat Blog Show for a while. After all, we’re still waiting for either one of them to do something close to the “blogging” that led me to start an actual blog in addition to my once-daily-then-thrice-weekly-then-weekly-then-almost-never column.
Bart has written one blog entry in the last four days… and it was self-promotion for the TV show that has about as much business at ComicCon as a Strindberg panel. Patrick has trumped him with two entries today alone (after no weekend entries)… one a set-up for someone else’s take on a very good Euro-fest and the other, a defense against Pete, who didn’t bother to take his swipe at Pat in the blog, but in his “column,” which consists of 3 blog excerpts and the swipe. Duh!
The reason I decided to blog about their pseudo-blogs is that it is instructive about how both of them continue to be led by the nose on the Paramount Vantage story as each claims to be right about the future. The future, as we noted from the day of the announcement, is just about nothing. The division is not set to be the next Rogue or Fox Atomic… they hope. And it’s not in any way being set up to be Screen Gems, which is involved in most of their productions from early on, not make the pick-ups that so many others live off of (including Vantage’s ONLY profitable movie… An Inconvenient Truth).
Even after Lesher and Grey lied overtly that they were not going to keep firing people after the first wave… … even after they hired a guy who wouldn’t be given a new division to start at any studio, including Lionsgate… even after Amy Israel was dismissed by internal chatter and not her boss (A Paramount signature in this regime)… even after they put most of its surviving executive talent into a worldwide acquisitions and international development group... these guys are still screaming about who was told what directly by Lesher… as though he is a straight forward honest player.
This is a guy who announced his hiring in the trades before the deal was done verbally, much less on paper…which was exactly how news of Brad Grey’s hire was handled by Grey.
Paramount Vantage’s losses were over $100 million in 18 months under Lesher. Vantage was not shut down by bean counters, but by Grey, whose only perceived success of any kind in the movie world was Lesher and his Oscar nods… Grey, who made a bad deal for DreamWorks that let them and their team walk away from Paramount in just 3 years, just long enough to take control and not long enough to make the deal profitable… Grey who is hoping that Lesher can somehow convert what he did at Vantage – which was to hire all of his clients to make their dream projects on dream budgets – to success at Big Paramount, where none of his indie agent relationships mean much.
Meanwhile, Pete-n-Pat are fighting over the deck chairs on the Titanic.
I would love to see Lesher turn it around. That would be one of the greatest stories ever. I wish him luck, but my expectations are low… as everyone else’s who is paying attention must be.
Maybe they were right all along… maybe blogging does mean too little thinking and too much typing. Good to see The Guys working so hard to prove their point.
Posted by dpoland at 06:00 PM | Comments (7)
BYOB - Manic Monday
Posted by dpoland at 04:48 PM | Comments (41)
Hot Button Review - Tropic Thunder
Tropic Thunder strikes me as the ultimate example of Stars Gone Wild. Let’s put aside that the commercial viability of movies about movies has always been iffy, no matter how good the movie. (See: Bowfinger. Really. See it now! See it again!) The premise for Tropic Thunder is funny. Selfish, obnoxious, spoiled people forced to face real pain for the first time… how will they respond?
We have seen similar ideas before during this summer… Iron Man, Kung Fu Panda, Hancock… even, in a way, Mamma Mia! and Speed Racer.
But none of the other movies have so reduced the central idea to nothing but that basis for an extended comedy sketch, often forgetting the central idea and simply trying to milk laughs out of any action that some very talented people can come up with.
I have to say, I was pushed right out of Tropic Thunder as soon as the blood became real and there was zero connection to any honest human response to it. And I never really came back.
Posted by dpoland at 01:22 PM | Comments (36)
July 27, 2008
W
Posted by dpoland at 10:33 PM | Comments (50)
Sunday Estimates by Klady
Posted by dpoland at 10:19 AM | Comments (33)
July 26, 2008
Worth 1000's Renaissance Star Wars Contest
Jabba the VIII
Posted by dpoland at 07:06 PM | Comments (5)
Friday Estimates by Klady
What can one say about The Dark Knight's number? The film is about $477 million ahead of the previous highest 8 day grosser in history.
In spite of what seened to many to be a low key campaign, Step Brothers will open in the top group of Ferrell numbers, really only overshadowed by Talladega Nights.
X-Files 2: I Want To Know Why They Thought Someone Was Coming is a bit of a wreck. Patrick Goldstein's obsession with Fox's Rotten Tomato scores will continue and be supported by another lame box office showing. Still... this is the tough walk of all studios. Last year, tehy scored a massive worldwide hit with a TV show that was still on the air, The Simpsons. This year, they get Chris Carter and a franchise that once had a cult behind it... and boom. (Perhaps the first question is why the studio released a film to this demo during ComicCon... the crowd there represents as much as another million at the box office... which in a situation like this, actually matters.)
Mamma Mia! is now edging out Hairspray for bragging rights to being #3 muisical of all time... and more importantly, a gross of over $120 million. People keep wanting to lazily blame the popularity of the musical on stage, but that has not been a sure bet in the past. I still give Universal marketing ALL the credit. They have positioned and continue to position the film as a light, happy alternative for women in a very dark summer. Yes, it sucks. But if you are a woman and you want to go to the movies and want something light, what the hell else is there for you in theaters?
Hancock passed $200m and Wall-E is almost there, but they seem to have had some life sucked out of them by The Dark Knight. Hellboy 2 passed the first film's total gross, domestically, in the last couple of days... but Batman and a market that seems to be just about at the limit - between $70m and $90m for the franchise, max, even though Guillermo is brilliant and created some of the summer's finest images - make the box office somewhat of a dissapointment for Universal, which ended up kicking in a lot more (30%+) to make the film than oriiginally intended. International on the first was 2/3 of the domestic... U will hope to build on that this time out with a bigger visual feast.
The folks left at Paramount Vantage and their bosses who moved to The Big Show pushed hard on American Teen... but it seems to be a prank call. The film will be fortunate to do $7000 per screen on 5 screens. To offer perspective, the company's Shine A Light (the Scorsese Stones doc) opened on 276 screens to $5391 per screen. Trumbo opened a few weeks ago on 3 screens and did $9375 per. Young @ Heart opened to $12,734 per screen on 4 this spring. So we don't know exactly where Teen is going from here. But with some scathing critical reviews - too scathing, too unkind, too suspicious - and no apparent luck in getting around art house habits (where critics still matter) to find an audience of teens, it doesn't look good. Fortunately, if it loses money - and there's always DVD - it will be a minor note on the Lesher list of cash drains (which includes money-loser Babel, which some blooger credited with being past the red ink the other day). Deck chairs on the Titanic, folks.
Posted by dpoland at 09:35 AM | Comments (118)
July 25, 2008
Box Office Hell LIVES!
Posted by dpoland at 03:14 PM | Comments (43)
ComicCon To Go
As they did last year, Paramount sent their ComicCon package out to journalists around the country this morning... I ran into it as I opened the door shortly after writing the last entry. It's just like being there... except without thousands of screaming, cranky people in Hall H waiting hours for 2 minutes of footage for Mega Movie X, Y or Z, $5 sodas you have to wait on line for, fighting one's way through the convention floor, and trying to find another way of explaining why the most entertaining moments at the event are not the scripted dog & ponies, but the crazy questions that some Con-ers ask... a practice which The 'Con has been cutting back on harshly in the last two years as personal publicists whined...
Brilliant. Let's throw credit to Mike Vollman, who is on his way out to UA/MGM, where the "Tom Cruise Is A F**king Nazi!" T-shirts can't be far behind. (It's actually a good idea... lower the flame on that pot.)
And they finally decided it was time for one last Air Bud movie. Cool T. The guys from Pineapple Express would dig it.
Posted by dpoland at 11:15 AM | Comments (2)
Luke Y Thompson's Deadline ComicCon Daily
I've been enjoying reading Luke Y Thompson's coverage of ComicCon for the LA Weekly. (Does anyone think Nikki has seen a single entry before Luke has posted them to the site? My guess is her first glimpse is to see it on the site and then to call and SCREAM at the LA Weekly web folks to tell them to post the notice that Luke works for her. And to remove the images of the Nikki Finke dolls that are on the convention floor this year. She did get an e-mail from someone telling her that The Weinsteins were mocked at the Fanboys press conference... and those fans won big... the movie, which was shot 2.5 years ago is actually going to be released and forgotten this fall, before the 3rd anniversary. WOW! And I have a surge I can sell you as rationalization that the Iraq War was a good idea too!)
(CORRECTION, 8p, Fri: Luke was kind enough to return an e-mail from the 'Con floor and corrects my notion that Nikki never even sees his entries. She does, as he sends them to her. My apologies all around.)
But the coverage reminds me... I am so happy NOT to be there.
ComicCon is a great experience for the 125,000 or so people who go down there every year. It is what a convention in any industry is. And has such, has become pretty much as irrelevant and unavoidable.
How ironic is it that every studio in L.A. is scrambling to get to San Diego this week/weekend, but The Dark Knight barely did anything (except for very basic viral marketing stunts) last year and underperformers Beowulf, Halloween, The Incredible Hulk, Shoot 'Em Up, Southland Tales, Drillbit Taylor, Spiderwick Chronicles, Hot Rod, and others all had a big presence at The 'Con.
Yes... Iron Man was there. And Iron Man did huge business. Does anyone really think that a dime of that business was garnered at ComicCon? Was the no-footage appearance by Indiana Jones the reason why that film got slammed by so much of the geek-edia?
Really... party on... commuinity comes together... good food, good drinks, good times... and as long as most studios are there, most other studios will argue to the bosses paying the bills that it's a million bucks well spent. And if you have a low profile film, it surely is. But does Watchmen need Comic-Con? Well, you got the answer loud and clear last week... no... or they would have held the trailer release until The 'Con. Yeah, they'll all be down there, pushing it out to the geeks. But that trailer, which is being watched all over the world right now, is what will sell the movie. People walking through the Owl ship will not.
Of course, the greatest irony is that most of the geek-edia that is down there has already experienced a significant percentage of what they will encounter on sets over the last year. Grease is the word.
Posted by dpoland at 10:26 AM | Comments (30)
Calling Dr Freud's... Janitor, Barber... Anyone, Really...
Sometimes a sword-covered-in-sticky-drippy-blood-that-El-Kabob's-35-year-old-actress-top-should-be-smart-enough-to-know-is going-nowhere-and-the-actually-seeing-of-which-in-print-(complete-with-chainmail-push-up)-should-remind-her-that-she-should-be-chasing-Wes-Anderson-movies-and-not-licking-someone's-mid-life-crisising-38-year-old-daddy-who-is-more-clever-than-talented is just a sword.
And sometimes, it's a penis substitute for unsophisticated children, some of whom direct movies.
I have always held out hope that Rose McGowan, who has always shown signs of being more smartly earth-bound than the image, would find her place as a Bette Davis styled S&TC character. (The trouble is that as on-screen maneaters go, she makes “Samantha” look as over-that-hill as she is.) This feels a lot like the last squeeze out of the toothpaste tube. She might want to put a call into Heather Graham, who rose a little higher in features, but whose career is effectively over now at 38, having not been hired for a studio movie in over six years. A pilates body and blow-job lips can get you a boyfriend in Austin, but it won't convert your career, which has never found its strongest play, which pushes the body to the background and the only push-up is the line reading.
The real opportunity for McGowan was to be one of the four girls in the car for QT in Death Proof… relaxed, edgy, and sexy on screen. This would have also been really good for the duo of films. Instead, McGowan played a variation of that same character in both films. And though that has been the image, the only way to keep playing that past 35 is to be a big name or to be in a sitcom ensemble.
Posted by dpoland at 09:50 AM | Comments (89)
If It's Friday, It Must Be BYOB
Here's a little grist for the mill...
Posted by dpoland at 12:36 AM | Comments (28)
July 23, 2008
Hot Button - Forbes' List Is A Disaster
Why are journalists who know better talking about this idiotic Forbes value list as though it made sense?
And then I realize… it’s late summer! Any crap flies as news about now!
I mean, seriously. I have never read anything quite as random and profoundly irrelevant. The list purports to actually say something about the value of actors, but it is so random about the circumstances of rankings, you have to throw your hands up in the air.
=================
How did Hugh Jackman get to #9 on this list with 3 films grossing a total of $73.7 million… two outright flops and one soft grosser? Apparently, these three films happen to be the ones he did for $7.4 million total.
Yet where is Daniel Radcliffe on this list with $832 million from his last three films… his “gross income for studios for every dollar he was paid” can’t be less than $10, can it?
What about Seth Rogen, whose last three films grossed $345.9 and for which he got paid, what, $6 million total? $10 million total? Even $15 million total (and he is surely now getting paid that per film) means a $23 return per dollar, blowing away everyone else. And unlike many on this list, he earned every dime of it.
And if anyone at Forbes wants to pretend this project took months and months to research, I cry “bullshit” on them. Anything more than 2 weeks doing this was a waste of a salary. Really. Not complex. I ran the numbers on the first 10 people on the list in less than 30 minutes.
Posted by dpoland at 10:35 PM | Comments (12)
Bat Bucks
A blog regular asked about the dollars on The Dark Knight and, frankly, my head hadn’t even gone there yet. However, suddenly it reminded me that this is one of those chances for Legendary Pictures to get make up sex after being shredded and left for dead on Superman Returns (about a $50 million hit while WB pretty much broke even).
Of course, we have no idea where the Batman number is going to land. But let’s work with some hypothetical numbers.
The Legendary deal has been 50/50 on production, studio gets out marketing and distribution fee first.
So…
The Dark Knight does $600 million worldwide.
$330 million in rentals comes back.
WB gets roughly a $60 million distribution fee.
$150 million worldwide marketing comes off the top.
We’re down to $120 million going to production costs, which are reportedly $180 million.
So, WB and Legendary are $60 million in the hole in theatrical.
Not unusual.
But keep in mind, WB is actually $30 million into profit as a company at this point, having earned the big distribution fee. So their 50% of post-theatrical dollars is all profit.
Legendary is not so lucky. They have $30 million to make up.
Figure that post-theatrical revenues on this film will be about $350 million. Say that $250 million of that comes back to the film. Cut it in half. WB is about $155 into profit on their $90 million (and the property, via T-W-owned DC Comics) investment (which could be read as a $250 million investment, as the company handles the costs of marketing) and Legendary is $95 million in profit on their $90 million investment.
Of course, had The Dark Knight simply had a modest gain over Batman Begins, WB would be looking at $45 million in distribution fees, the movie would have been $80m in the hole after theatrical (WB just $35m behind) and about $90m in overall profit in the end, WB up $90m and Legendary up $45m.
Obviously, these are rough figures. The gross could be higher and any increase over these numbers would be pure profit (after exhibition and DVD costs are taken out). Could be lower. And in this case, much more so than Superman, character merchandising could have a major upturn that would actually add another big chunk of money to WB’s coffers.
It’s also interesting opposite the Marvel summer. Paramount distributed Iron Man, invested nothing, and will net less than $60 million on the exercise. Universal will net about $30 million for The Incredible Hulk and take no hit on the production costs. WB split the cost on The Dark Knight and could earn triple what Par took on Iron Man.
Risk/Reward remains the daily anxiety of Hollywood.
This is also why Harry Potter is so mighty-mighty in the WB portfolio... a wholly owned property that is also a mega-franchise. The search for these unique situations will continue to inspire some very dumb behavior, both by studios and private funders.
But what has become painfully apparent is that the wins are not as big as they used to be… and the losses have become more dramatic every year.
Posted by dpoland at 06:09 PM | Comments (50)
It’s Not What You Do, It’s How You Do It
Two things that has stuck out for me in the Ebert Show exit coverage. First, there is very little discussion taking into account that Roger has now been off the air for two years. His exit from the show, given his physical limitations (specifically his lack of voice), has been a reality for a while. There has been hope, but Roger has been “gone” for a long while now. And the coverage has been almost as though he and Roeper quit the show together after a Monday taping.
Secondly – and more interestingly – is the complete lack of understanding that this showdown has been in process via Disney TV’s actions for a long, long time. Even more so, that this is the reason why this end is unhappy and angry – and make no mistake, this is an angry exit – instead of thoughtful and well-rehearsed.
What struck me about that is that so much is defined by how parties in a relationship behave, not primarily by the end result. In this case, what is particularly striking is that Mr. Ebert is, even as a general, a great soldier. Decisions which he really decided and which he didn’t… he would not only take responsibility for changes, but he would go to bat with full force in selling changes as progress, even when they were actually regressive. The show was nickeled and dimed… and Roger never acknowledged it once… would get a bit offended by any suggestion that anything negative was happening on his watch. And even yesterday, whatever Disney’s behavior, one thing Roger did not want to become The Story was that this happened because of any decline in the ratings.
(And indeed, I think it was a Disney strategic decision… not so much because of further erosion, but because there was little hope of a ratings improvement with Roger permanently out. With two years left with Disney “owning” syndicated slots, they could go cheaper, still deliver a show, and take a swing at trying something “fresh” that might have a better shot at increasing the audience again.)
Even as the man was being kicked to the curb in the most callous and inappropriate – and completely unnecessary – way, he was protecting his child, the show.
Thing is, Ebert can be a stubborn man, but he is not illogical or unable to reconsider, and he can be very, very generous indeed. Had Disney appealed to his loyalty, instead of trying to muscle a man who might seem to be at a disadvantage but who even in aural silence carries more weight than any other film critic in America, things could have been quite different. I am pretty confident that they could have had “the thumbs” and the imprimatur of The Man had they simply treated him with the respect he has earned and given he and Marlene Iglitzen, Gene Siskel’s widow, some input in the reconsideration of the show. Roger’s loyalty to Richard Roeper is unquestionable, but things change and given that they were going to change, there was a better answer as to how.
This is hardly the only example of this kind of “how they do it” discomfort in Hollywood. So many of the jobs lost in this community in the last few years have become associated with still-bitter emotions, not so much because people were unhappy about losing good jobs… though they were. It was that how these firings were done, often of long-time executives, was inexcusably brutal.
But even the party at ComicCon starting today… there is virtually no logical analysis of the event impacting movies in a real way. Yes, shoring up the base is always a good idea. But there are better ways of spending millions of dollars doing that. The industry has converted the event into an early junket, essentially, for the geek-focused movies. As it has grown, personal publicists have embraced the idea that they have to make their clients attend, a reality which has had more effect, good and bad, on the ongoing relationships with talent and the studios, than the public ever gets to hear. But to NOT show up is to virtually demand attacks from GeekWorld. The sense of entitlement – which has been reflected in the entire generation now in their 20s and early 30s – is profound.
But again… who can chart cause and effect in a way that argues affirmatively that the event helps box office? No one. But the aggravation of not going? Too big to fit on a chart for studio publicists who are sensitive to every small tremor that might turn into ugliness.
Posted by dpoland at 05:25 PM | Comments (7)
Two Buds Up... Way Up!
Smoke to the left...
Smoke to the right...
The device... one barrel for each dude
Posted by dpoland at 04:49 PM | Comments (6)
Comic-Con '08 Kick-Off... All Aboard City Of Ember
Fox Walden's City of Ember was the de facto kick-off of Comic-Con this year, traveling the usual suspects from LA to San Diego in two specially decked out cars, complete with a screening room to show about 20 minutes of footage, director Gil Kenan, and others. Here is what it looked liked heading in...
And Devin Faraci doesn't seem to quite have the CoE spirit yet... hopefully he will feel more in touch with the good feelings of the film after the train ride is over... touching can sometimes be a good thing.
Posted by poland at 01:11 PM | Comments (53)
July 22, 2008
BYOB
This one is only for sane, sober commenters, thanks.
Posted by dpoland at 10:20 PM | Comments (73)
Better Days
Posted by dpoland at 10:08 PM | Comments (7)
The Unfired
As the studio continues to shutter Paramount Vantage, a few of the survivors are being moved into a Shiny New Division.... Paramount Worldwide Acquisitions Group.
WOO HOO!!!!
In other words, they dumped Amy Israel and the rest of the group is going to go look for movies, same as before, except that they really don't want more than a half-dozen acquisitions a year, so they are offering up the idea that Focus was built on, that Sony is Crouching Tiger and Stephen Chow deep in, and that WB has started chasing a bit... that there is money in films that are funded, made, and distributed with the US as a secondary market. And if the movie turns out to be viable in the US, you already have the rights in house. Team Focus was already strong in international distirbution and Sony has doen really well in the Asian market.
So, good luck to the "Mounters, congrats on keeping your jobs for another 18 months (they way things are going, any one of you could be in change by 2010)... Go PWAG!!!
Posted by dpoland at 12:14 PM | Comments (1)
Insult To Injury
Disney, apparently stuck with 2 years to go on syndication contracts and dreaming the dream that their systematic destruction of The Ebert Show - starting with the choice of Roeper, but getting much much worse with the dumbing down of the show with less actual discussion of the films and narrowing of its core idea into a gimmick - is not really their fault, but the fault of an antiquated idea or the hosts.
The thing you learn in this business is that no ideas - like Batman movies - are antiquated, just the execution of them. But as someone who does a lot of TV feeds into programs with a voice in my ear ad a 1/2 second time delay, I can promise you that doing "roundtables" via satellite is not going to improve anything. It will continue to muddy the waters and miss the point. If you want to engage people who love movies enough to watch a show like this, you need people on the show who REALLY care.
We all remember the fighting between Roger & Gene. But in retrospect, it was more than fighting... it was real arguing over different ideas of what made a good or bad movie. And we, as an audience, were invited to take sides.
But now the geniuses at Buena Vista will offer what is sure to be a hyped up imitation of the NBC O&O flailer, Lyons & Bailes, starring Ben's once-worthwhile now complete hack father, Jeffrey and a very attractive host with an accent and little to say, Alison Bailes. The show is so successful that Anne Thompson didn't even know it existed, apparently.
Moreover, what "respected critic" would ever show such disrespect to Ebert and such a desperate need for airtime as to participate in a show with one of our great emerging quote whores and movie ignoramuses (anyone who has seen him live on E! knows that he has as much movie knowledge as most other Taco Bell employees), Ben Lyons? (I have never once seen the other guy, but TCM is legitimately interested in movies, so I will assume, for now, that he is going to be the smart one on this set.) That is so what I want to watch… commercials for the industry from idiots who want to be quoted. 9021-DOH!
Anyway…
It isn’t really worth getting too worked up about… it will be gone in two years and forgotten by October. Just more hack grist for the mill.
So I actually think Roeper and Phillips will get a pick-up elsewhere? Like I wrote yesterday, if someone needs a way of getting attention, these guys have the highest profile in that game right now. But truth be told, it’s not a very good show anymore and even with Richard, who I have a low opinion of, if someone moves forward, I would suggest simplifying the whole thing back down to what it once was… a conversation about movies. If people want to want Richard and Michael have that conversation, it will have a following. If not, not. And if, someday, the Ebert & Siskel chemistry is found again, it will be a real pleasure.
In the meanwhile, may Lyons & Other & Buena Vista have all the success they deserve.
And riddle me this... Disney is doing so many smart things right now... showing so much insight into their brand and avoiding distractions... why is it that Bob Iger is letting this ugliness be a part of the Disney legacy? Roger Ebert should be treated like Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck by this company, especially after all these years of investment in brand building. But they are throwing it away. This is an Iger level issue, but like Roeper, hired by the now-dumped Mary Kellogg, they are leaving it to people who are the industry's version of minimum wage workers. o vision past this week's problem. And it is truly a stain on Disney.
Posted by dpoland at 08:39 AM | Comments (30)
Bat Mess
How does one speak to the Christian Bale situation with anything other than pained sympathy for all involved?
What does "assault" mean? What kind of confrontation led to the conflict? What drives family members to a place where they will go to the police, knowing that their family member, a public figure, will be dragged through the mud, perhaps for teh rest of his life?
There is not going to be a happy answer here.
And I think it ranks up there with Paris Hilton, Lindsey Lohan, and Heath Ledger's death in term of meda frenzy's that need not be. But that won't stop anyone, will it?
Posted by dpoland at 08:30 AM | Comments (48)
Dumping Posts
I havep proudly chosen NOT to dump comments or to "ban" anyone from this site over the years.
Today is an exception.
One of the regulars decided to go above and beyond in being a jackass... and most likely, a drunken or stoned jackass. And his comments are going away, though if you are really compelled to read them, they exists after the jump in this entry. I haven't bothered reading past the first couple of them.
As I wrote just the other day, I have been pretty proud of the civility shown in here.. more so when the topics are challenging.
Don"r post drunk.
Don't attack other posters for sport.
If you have no a-game, at least bring a b-game.
As I have written before, I would rather shut this thing down than babysit. Please don't press me to make that decision.
LYT looking like Lou from CADDYSHACK and shit.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 12:46 AM
WHERE IS ROEPER IN LIFE AND WHERE ARE YOU MCMAHON?
WINNER = ROEPER.
OWNED.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 12:47 AM
That's a stupid argument. You're drunk.
Posted by: jeffmcm at July 22, 2008 12:50 AM
Roeper is awesome, fun, funny, cool, and we all know that dude gets mad fucking pussy.
BIG UPS TO THE ROEP MAN, KEEP TAPPING THAT ASS, KING.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 12:53 AM
And, yeah, ALL should go watch LUKE Y THOMPSON'S godawful PLAINVIEW IMITATION ON YOUTUBE where calls a sex line and pretends to jerk off.
What a douche; NOTHING against the guy, but I'm the BIGGEST STAR ON THE HOT BLOG, and LYT, USC GRAD WHO'S FRIENDS WITH MY FRIENDS, has never acknowledged me here.
PAY SOME RESPECT, LOU.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 12:54 AM
Attention whore. Good night.
Posted by: jeffmcm at July 22, 2008 12:55 AM
(that should be, 'You're an attention whore', not 'Attention! Whore!')
Posted by: jeffmcm at July 22, 2008 12:56 AM
You know who's giving me a BONER lately?
MAGGIE Q.
WHAT IS UP HOTNESS? HIT ME UP ON MYSPACE. YEP.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 12:59 AM
Roeper's bank account and pussy count vs. LYT's?
WINNER = ROEPER.
Another mediocre blog critic who's JEALOUS.
YOU LOSE, HAT.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:04 AM
LUKE, IF YOU LOOK LIKE LOU FROM CADDYSHACK, WHY IS YOUR ROTTEN TOMATOES PICTURE A JAPANESE MAN WITH FUSCIA HAIR?
SEE, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE; WHY DON'T YOU KNOW WHO I AM? WE HAVE LIKE 10 MUTUAL FRIENDS, and you pay me no homage?
I AM THE BIGGEST ATTRACTION ON THE HOT BLOG. SHOW YOUR RESPECT, HAT.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:07 AM
I AM THE GOD OF HOT BLOG.
I MAKE THIS SHIT THE IRON-HOT BLOG.
WITHOUT LEXG THE GOD OF ALL, IT IS THE COLD BLOG.
RECOGNIZE MY BRILLIANCE, POLAND. PUT ME ON PAYROLL, KIMMEL JR.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:12 AM
MY IDEA FOR A MICHAEL PHILLIPS: THE MOVIE was the FUNNIEST THING EVER, especially since I opined that he would/should be played by XANDER BERKELEY.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I AM BRILLIANT.
POLAND WOULD BE PLAYED BY ROD LURIE WITH A BOSLEY HAIR TRANSPLANT POWDERED WITH CHALK DUST.
DPO, IS THAT A BOSLEY ON YOUR HEAD?
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:13 AM
I DON'T GET WHY SOME PEOPLE GET TO BE PROFESSIONAL MOVIE CRITICS WHEN I'M OBVIOUSLY SMARTER THAN THEM.
I HAVE DEGREES IN JOURNALISM, FILM HISTORY, AND ENLIGHT LIT, WITH MINORS IN RUSSIAN LIT, FILMMAKING, AND LIKE 15 OTHER THINGS.
HOW DOES A LUKE THOMPSON OR A FATBODY LIKE ELVIS DOUCHEBAG MITCHELL GET A PAID JOB AS A FILM CRITIC?
OR THAT FAT OLD BITCH KEN TURAN? THAT GUY IS THE WORST MOVIE CRITIC IN AMERICA, AN OLD, ELDERLY, BORING STUFFY BORE. KEN TURAN BLOWS.
LEXG IS SMARTER THAN FUCKING KEN TURAN, WHO'S LIKE THE BORING BOOK CRITIC VERSION OF MICHAEL MEDVED.
YEAH, I SAID IT. FUCK KEN TURAN. WORST MOVIE CRITIC IN AMERICA. OLD FUCK. MAN UP, TURAN, YOU'RE A PUSSY.
KEN TURAN IS GARBAGE.
HIRE THE LEX.
I'M SMARTER THAN HALF THE SO CALLED EXPERTS. I SHOULD BE A FUCKING FILM CRITIC. WHY AM I A WORKADAY POSTHOUSE DOUCHE WHEN I'M SMARTER THAN ANYONE IN THE WORLD?
YES, I AM SMARTER THAN YOU.
YOU ARE A BITCH. I AM GOD. BOW TO ME.
THREE COLLEGE DEGREES, IQ OF 230.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:47 AM
IS THERE ANYONE IN MODERN FILM DISCOURSE THAT'S MORE IRRELEVANT THAN KEN TURAN?
SO WHY DOES THE MOVIE CAPITAL OF THE WORLD GET STUCK WITH THAT PATHETIC OLD MAN?
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 01:52 AM
ALCOHOL OWNS. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
DRINK UP ALL BITCHES-- LEXCOUNT = 11 BEERS, HALF A BOTTLE OF THE D.K.A. AND NOW SOME JACK BITCH.
YEP YEP.
KNOW. I AM PLAINVIEW. FUCK EVERYONE.
Posted by: LexG at July 22, 2008 02:01 AM
Posted by dpoland at 08:19 AM | Comments (68)
July 21, 2008
The Ongoing Adventures Of Roger Ebert
I learned back when I was involved in a minor way in the life of Ebert On TV, that everything happens in June and July for that show. That’s when the decisions for the year to come are made, course is charted, and focus is set.
But even before I got there, just after Gene Siskel had passed away, things were in decline. Ebert and Siskel were icons, but the big ratings of their heyday were no longer there. Things were stable, but not sensational.
And so Disney was nickel-and-diming the show to death even then. Budget cuts kept coming. Eventually the staff was pared down and the show moved from Chicago’s CBS studio, where it had been taped for decades, to the ABC station, where facilities were “free” and full-time staff could add the show to their weekly duties in part.
But the process really accelerated after Roger’s illness. After one year off the air, Disney tried to low-ball Ebert and Mrs. Siskel on the rights to the thumbs. That didn’t work. But Ebert’s name remained on the show. Then the parade of guest critics was halted because it was time-consuming and travel was expensive. The Robert Wilonsky was set… and unset. Then A.O. Scott, who really liked the gig, was pushed aside for full-time status by Michael Phillips, who was local and therefore, didn’t need a hotel or an airfare from NY each week.
And now, the show is dead. The exits are being sold as a choice. But the reality is that Disney has been hacking at both Ebert & Roeper to work for less and less for years now and apparently this summer, the rubber meets the road. The ratings were not strong enough in syndication for Disney – whose O&Os gave the shows its best clearances (NY, LA, Chicago, etc) – to hang onto the show or for the rest of the syndication world to try to hold Disney to its contracts, which had a couple more years on them.
It’s unlikely that there is a much better opportunity for Roeper out there, so I would guess that Disney let him walk with dignity instead of publicly dumping the show. But make no mistake, no one walks away from a show that is successful… not Roeper… not Disney.
Roger, on the other hand, may well have been faced with no longer getting paid for the use of his name. And that may have been Disney’s tipping point. At The Movies with Roeper and Phillips, with due respect to Michael Phillips, is not what the network of stations bought.
In any case, despite being unable to speak, Roger is working his ass off as a full-time print critic and showing enormous enthusiasm and energy. I would argue that his legacy is best served by continuing down that road, perhaps reviving “the thumbs” as a print item. But Roger is ever ambitious and seeking new challenges - though he is not big on change, which is why he might continue to work with the branded Roeper in spite of there being so many high quality film critics seeking work these days - so I don’t expect things will go that simply.
There seem two be two tracks of possibility for the future.
1. Cable/Satellite - Reelz Channel, owned by Hubbard Broadcasting and partnered with the Weinsteins on Ovation, picked up reruns of Ebert & Roeper in the last year. The ratings may not have been high enough in syndication, but I would bet money that E&R was the best watched show on Reelz every week.
As a result, it would make sense for Reelz, still fighting for its place on the cable and satellite “dial” to jump in and to do the show for a price, giving Roeper and Ebert equity in the show - Richard for hosting and Roger (and Siskel’s widow) for “the thumbs” – instantly getting week-in and week-out movie advertising play (marketers still love the thumbs best of all) branded “Reelz” as well as building a show that legitimizes the channel.
For Roeper, even a minor payday has great value in this context, as it drives the value of everything else he does. Without the show and Roger’s imprimatur, he is a nothing. And for Roger, it gives him creative control and ownership, likely carving out a place on the show for his writing to be highlighted.
It is always possible that there is another cable/satellite net out there for this product, like STARZ or AMC. But Reelz seems to make the most sense on both sides. They have the most to gain, which means they are the most likely to give Ebert & Roeper the most lucrative package.
2. The Internet – Fandango just picked up Movies.com, Yahoo! is forever trying to build its movie brand, Microsoft – who Roger was in business with on Cinemania many years bask – continues to seek firmer footing. And Google, Moviefone, and even Amazon.com are legitimate potential partners for a serious internet play starring established Mainstream Media branding.
Whatever happens, Ebert's legacy is intact. There are many great emmories of his decades on the air and his Pulitzer-winning work in print.
And for the moment, Roeper joins the ever-growing list of film critics who are out of work.
Posted by dpoland at 11:49 AM | Comments (17)
Statement from Roger Ebert
After 33 years on the air, 23 of them with Disney, the studio has decided to take the program named "Siskel & Ebert" and then "Ebert & Roeper" in a new direction. I will no longer be associated with it.
The show was a wonderful experience. It was a great loss to me when surgery in July 2006 made it impossible for me to appear on the air any longer. Although I remained active behind the scenes, I feel that Richard Roeper and several co-hosts, notably Michael Phillips and A.O.
Scott, have excelled at carrying on the tradition Gene Siskel and I began in 1975 with "Sneak Previews" on PBS.
Gene and I felt the formula was simplicity itself: Two film critics, sitting across the aisle from each other in a movie balcony, debating the new films of the week. We developed an entirely new concept for TV that has lasted all these years. Few shows have been on the air so long and remained so popular. We made television history, and established the trademarked catch-phrase "Two thumbs up."
The trademark still belongs to me and Marlene Iglitzen, Gene's widow, and the thumbs will return. We are discussing possibilities, and plan to continue the show's tradition.
Roger Ebert
Posted by dpoland at 10:37 AM | Comments (17)
July 20, 2008
More On Weekend Box Office
Mojo is back to its normal, high quality service, so I can crunch a few numbers.
If you want to know why other studios are bitching about WB’s estimate, it’s because in the cases of the previous Top 5 openings of all time, Sunday was off at least 20% from Saturday and most a few points more. TDK is estimating a 17.7% drop. 5% more on Sunday makes the estimate $2.4 million lower, $152.3m, which is even lower than our Len Klady has it. Moreover, the Saturday estimate of a flat $47.4 million has to be somewhat inaccurate, just because it’s too clean… and suggests a drop of virtually ZERO from Friday to Saturday if you count the midnight shows separately.
All of a sudden, you are .79% ahead of Spidey 3’s opening… $1.2 million.
Does it really matter?
No.
Does it matter a lot to Sony?
Yes.
Is fudging by less than 1% completely doable by any studio in this town on any weekend of the year?
Absolutely.
Do I personally care?
Absolutely not. But it is an interesting issue.
The only Top Ten film with a smaller than TDK-estimated Sunday drop was Episode III… but again, the comparison is odd because it opened fully on a Thursday with midnight Wed shows, so the Saturday number was on quite a different plane. Same with something like Transformers, which opened on a Tuesday and had a huge first week by the end of its first weekend.
Mamma Mia! is walking an even thinner line vs reality. I am willing to buy the Friday-to-Saturday drop being less than Hairspray by 14.5% because the movie skews a little older and there was probably some Bat-intimidation of older audiences who didn’t want to face huge crowds on Friday. But the Sunday drop estimate of under 19.5% is a reach. And in that case, if the Sunday number is really 22.5%, 3% worse than estimated (and still less than Hairspray’s Sat-to-Sun drop), the weekend falls back behind Hairspray as the best musical opening ever…. only by $109k, but behind nonetheless.
I think that’s about it… another reminder that fractions count, egos count, and that there is nowhere like Hollywood when it comes to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If The Devil told WB last week that they could be guaranteed a $130m opening for TDK, they would have been thrilled to offer up a dozen interns’ souls. And if you had told Universal that they could have a $25 million start for Mamma Mia!, the same would be true.
But wave records in front of a studio and all bets are off. Vanity makes fools of us all. (And yes, that includes me.)
Posted by dpoland at 03:30 PM | Comments (41)
Summer Marketing Champs?
I made the comment in the last thread that Mamma Mia! was a more impressive marketing effort than The Dark Knight.
My case...
In one corner, you have a musical, much like Phantom or Rent or The Producers, with a 59 year old woman in the lead, playing comedy which she rarely has done to financial success, an unknown fronting most ads, music that was hugely popular two decades ago, and a challenge getting any media attention in the wake of The Bat... and they opened the movie to around the best musical opening ever. Much bigger challenge.
On the flip side, you have a movie series that has been the biggest opener in history 3 times out of 5 films, a massive budget, a dominating position in theaters, and a smart marketing campaign that didn't emphasize the darkness of the film.
With due respect to Sony marketing, do you really think that the Spider-Man 3 campaign was why that was the previous top opener of all time?
Pirates 2, which was a nearly exact rip-off of the previous campaign?
Shrek The Third?
You can't market for a $150 million opening. You can only do a good job of supporting and getting out of the way.
Who should get the biggest kudos of the summer so far for marketing?
For me, Number 1 would be Paramount launching Iron Man on a whole different level than any secondary character has ever launched before.
I'd put Mamma Mia! next.
Then Wanted, Kung Fu Panda, and The Happening.
After that, I would start on the many franchise films.
#6 – The Dark Knight
#7 – Hancock
#8 – Indiana Jones IV
#9 – Sex & The City
#10 – Wall-E
#11 – Get Smart
#12 – Hellboy
#13 – You Don't Mess with the Zohan
That leaves 11 other wide release films that I think were either just not impressively marketed or blown or badly blown.
But what do you think?
Posted by dpoland at 02:48 PM | Comments (62)
Weekend Estimates by Klady
First... I would like to protest, yet again, the idiotic use of estimated ticket sales as a measure of ANYTHING other than journalists looking for an angle. Paul Dergarabedian is a good guy, but he doesn't have the slightest fucking idea what the average ticket price is right now and more importantly, has no inkling what tickets to Spider-Man 3 were sold for versus The Dark Knight. None. And with due respect to AP's Dave Germain, another good and smart man, reporting that shite is lousy journalism... because it is a FALSE stat.
How many tickets were sold in which cities at what prices at what times? If you don't know, then SHUT UP and tell us about what you DO know and not what you are guessing at for no reason other than to try to differentiate your ideas from all the other drooling media attention seekers out there.
It's bad enough that people have now institutionalized what studios tell them on Sunday morning as fact, staring dead in the face the FACT that no one knows for sure what today's box office will be. Media is guessing. Dan Fellman is guessing. Len Klady is guessing. And we all do that. And almost no one reports the final numbers. And that's what it is. But at least put a damned "estimated" on the number instead of hiding behind the tail end of the sentence of "according to WB," as though real people are supposed to be able to parse that out as "the people who are selling you the movie are guessing at this number, 25% of which has not happened yet."
Okay… done with that…
It seems that Box Office Mojo’s servers are being overwhelmed a bit by web traffic with The Dark Knight's record breaking estimate as well as the musical-record-breaking estimate for Mamma Mia!. So relying on an easily accessible database of numbers for analysis is not so easily accessible today. I will try to take a look at the numbers again later today to see if there is anything as fascinating as breaking records in there.
Truth is, Sunday estimates on both films look like a bit of a record reach. But who knows? I don’t. You don’t. They don’t. Both films opened very successfully. Both want to be able to claim top slots on tonight’s news and tomorrow morning’s chat shows.
No matter what the answer – and “final numbers” are imperfect as well, no matter how we pretend they are not – both studios deserve a lot of congratulations. I am stunned by the endless speculation about why the movies opened, like there is some magic potion out there. When studios skillfully offer up what people want to see, they go on opening weekend. Heath Ledger’s death didn’t suddenly turn a guy who wasn’t a movie opener into bog box office… critics didn’t MATTER to an opening weekend for the first time this year… the ad campaign, whose one sheets were right out of Batman Returns, was good, but nothing game changing, the online push selling water to geeks in the desert…
Warner Bros did a solid job and the third director of a Batman movie became the third director to have a “best ever” opening weekend and the movie became the fourth Batman movie to own that title. Context is everything.
Universal – in the much more impressive marketing effort this week - did an excellent job selling MM! as a big, happy romp with a charming Meryl Streep, a young starlet who made the movie safe for the younger set, and a song that I couldn’t stop singing to myself all week no matter how crap the movie is. How good was the effort? I kept thinking, “I want to go see that movie” even though I had already seen it and was perplexed at how it missed the mark so badly. (No… not going back… will surely watch on TV and enjoy it piecemeal, never ever watching it front to back again.)
Onward…
Posted by dpoland at 10:16 AM | Comments (69)
July 19, 2008
Friday Estimates by Klady
chart fixed... Hellboy & Journey cumes were flipped
I don't know why Klady's Dark Knight number is different than elsewhere, other to remind everyone that Friday numbers this morning are actually an estimate... another forgotten reality.
Sane people are continuing to be circumspect about what the weekend total will be. Comparisons are pretty much worthless. The Star War "late-night" screenings were on a Wednesday night, not a Thursday night, so that dynamic is quite different. (Sith was as $83.5m by the end of Friday.) Spider-Man 3 did some midnight screenings, I think, but not with the heavy push of the TDK push. (How many in Dark Knight's fan base get their head turned by the TDK initials, remembering when audio tape was hot, hot hot?)
Spider-Man 3’s Friday-to-weekend ratio was 40%, so if Bat7 stays on that track, it’s looking at $162m. But the singularly high must-see-this-second of Friday (29% of the day in those late night shows) brings up the question of whether the situation was so front-loaded that it will drop harder. Demand, in the end, is pretty much finite in Movie World. We still only have one $600 million domestic movie ever and #2 is over 20% behind that figure. And there are still only 6 movies in history to gross over $400m domestically in their original release.
On the other hand, just by math, the sky is the limit. More than a third of the seats for TDK yesterday went unsold. But selling anything close to two-thirds of opening day inventory is quite a feat.
The Dark Knight will be the 11th $100 million-plus opening. Only 4 of the 10 cracked $350m domestic (3 of the top 5 did not). Only 3 of teh 10 went on to crack $400m.
The only $100 million-plus opening that has failed to gross at least $799m worldwide was X-Men 3: The Last Stand, which did $460m worldwide. The flipside for TDK is that the only comic book movie to do better than that is Spider-Man (all three) and Iron Man, which is going to do close to $600m worldwide. Batman Begins did $372m worldwide and even if it doubles its domestic gross, it would still have to double its gross internationally as well to get to $700m..
The front-loading of theatrical continues to gallop forward.
Mamma Mia! is hot on the trail of Hairspray’s $27.48m best-musical-opening-ever from last summer. Like SM3, Hairspray’s opening Friday ended up being 40% of the opening weekend number (which would translate to a $24.3m start for MM!), but the movie skews a bit older, so we might see a different b.o. track for this musical.
Space Chimps will land at the low end of animated knock-offs, which include Fox’s 2006 release, Everybody’s Hero. To day that their disinterest was signaled in the ad campaign would be to understate the obvious.
Posted by dpoland at 09:28 AM | Comments (71)
July 18, 2008
Gross On The Dark Knight's Roots.... & 48 Hrs
On the issue of The Dark Knight's models – There is the sublime, unbelievably ahead of its time, 1928 Fritz Lang silent movie thriller, Spies, an astonishing techno thriller about a maniacal chaos spreading agent, infiltrating every sector of Weimar society. The image of Joker burning a mountain of money is an inspired commentary on the opening image of Spies where a banker has gone insane while being surrounded by piles of devalued currency.
ALSO - Episode 7 Of The 48 Hr Diaries went up earlier this week.
JUNE 27, 1982 - DAY OFF
Went to Blade Runner that we've all been looking forward to for so long.
My favorite line, the dancer-replicant to Deckard:" You think I'd be working n a place like this if I could afford a real snake?"
There's rich thematic possibility in juxtaposing, the sci-fi future with old fashioned film noir and making that duality, an analogy with the duality of human/inhuman. It was Godard by the way who invented this future/self-consciously noir past juxtaposition, with Alphaville. Point Blank, Roeg's Performance, and Altman's The Long Goodbye all played this game to a certain degree. I wrote about this "genre" in Film Comment about eight or nine years ago
==================
JULY 6, 1982
Walter has a bad cold today. It's the scene of Nick meeting Eddie for the first time at the jail.
After a take fails: "Let's go again. Debbie picture up--picture now."
Eddie, improving. His rendition of Roxanne, by the Police, -- super.
==================
JULY 7, 1982
This morning, a long elaborate take of Nick and Eddie at the prison, Eddie in his armani suit for the first time in the film, Nick angrily pushing Eddie around, fluffing his lines a few times, Eddie much better still yelling at Nick.
Nick got very tense and frustrated, sluffing his lines, and oddly I think it's because he's reluctant to be as mean and aggressive as the scene requires him to be. The odd thing is of course is he's so good at it. But I almost feel like it makes Nick feel guilty to be good at this kind of being rough and even vicious. It's like a part of him feels like these were the kinds of feelings he got into acting to avoid. He's such a gentle and not violent person.
To everyone's despair -- Walter's, Joel's and mine -- the studio furnished us today with their list of alternative titles.
Posted by dpoland at 05:40 PM | Comments (8)
Sick Of It, But...
... I do feel compelled to keep doing the homework on this movie. There are so many stats being thrown around without any perspective whatsoever... and that really gets me.
In another thread, someone talked about Star Wars having a much stronger fanbase than Batman, but that doesn't hold up to history. (What does these days?) Honestly, I was surprised how mighty the Bat openings actually were...
Batman - Biggest opening ever, as of 1989, first $40 million opening ever
Batman Returns - Biggest opening ever, as of 1992, first $45 million opening ever
Batman Forever – Biggest opening ever, as of 1995, first $50 million opening ever
Batman & Robin - 3rd biggest opening of 1997, 8th biggest opening ever as of 1997
Batman Begins – 9th biggest opening of 2005, $48.7m, #47 opening of all time when it landed
So really, Batman Begins was the outlier. The first four non-TV Batman movies were four of the eight best openings in history up until 1997. But the landmarks really started falling in 2001.
First opening over $53m (besting Barman Forever) – 1997, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, $72.1m
First opening over TLW – 2001, Harry Potter 1 - $90.3m
First opening over HP1 – Spider-Man (2002) - $114.8m
Three movies opening better than that:
Spider-Man 3 - $151.1m
Pirates 2 – $135.6m
Shrek The Third - $121.6m
And one nearly tied... Pirates 3 - $114.7m
What does The Dark Knight's record-breaking midnight release mean?
Hard to say. Star Wars: Episode 3 was a Thursday release. The film did $158m in 4 days, including its massive midnight launch. Take a day out of the equation and you are in the high 1-teens or low 1-twenties. Would that be anything less than hugely impressive for this film? Of course not. Could it be higher? Of course.
But let's not confuse ourselves about the power of The Bat in the marketplace, with great or shite reviews, with a prematurely passed Joker or a ready-to-retire one, even with Alicia Silverstone and bat nipples for boys.
Opening weekend is never about the movie itself. It is about what's been sold. And the genius of this sell was, a) keeping the materials lighter than the film itself (keeping the movie safe), and b) the media flogging this thing endlessly and without ever asking any hard questions. The critics are whipped cream.
And on comes the weekend...
PS - After complaints yesterday about me writing about Los Angeles and TDK, I decided to look at other towns today.
Milwaukee – As of 3p, CDT, there are only three theaters in this town with sold out shows. Two of them are “draft house” theaters. The only conventional theater with sell outs is the Marcus Majestic Brookfield with 4 screens running and 7 of 12 shows sold out.
Baton Rouge – College town… no sell outs today
Phoenix – No sell outs today
Seattl – One 8p sell-out at the Cinerama, the only sell-out all day today.
Again… not saying shows won’t sell out or that the movie isn’t performing remarkably well. Just asking for a little sanity.
Posted by dpoland at 12:14 PM | Comments (53)
Matson Goes Bananas
Posted by dpoland at 09:18 AM | Comments (9)
Spoiler Bat-Thread
No point in separating out the spoilers... at least not in this thread.
Here's some space to kick it around... or love it around... or whatever...
Posted by dpoland at 08:22 AM | Comments (136)
July 17, 2008
coming soon
There is a special genre of comedies, bringing together can't miss talent, a big ambitious idea, and a trunkful of money. The list includes:
Mystery Men
Harlem Knights
Johnny Dangerously
Club Paradise
Young Doctors In Love
Soon, they will be joined by one more classic miss. The movie is ikely to open pretty well thanks to a very aggressive marketing campaign, but time will not be kind.
Posted by dpoland at 10:27 PM | Comments (41)
About Those SELL OUTS!!!!!
I hate to offer a look at the truth of what's going on out there, but by way of the MovieTickets.com and Fandango ticket sales websites...
Here in Los Angeles, at The Grove, the most often sold out movie theater in the Los Angeles area, there are, indeed six The Dark Knight screenings starting between midnight and 1am that at sold out. There are no later screenings currently scheduled. And as I recall - since I was there - the last Star Wars film was on more screens after midnight, all sold out as well.
But with all the "SELL OUT" screaming, there is a grand total of ONE screening of the film on Friday that is currently sold out. 8pm.
Want to go at noon? No problem. 7p? No problem. 10? No problem.
Saturday and Sunday have NO sell-outs.
You can still get online tickets for the 12:45a show in Century City, where they have 8 screens going.
Friday, the only sell-out os 7:15p. Zero sell outs Saturday or Sunday.
The Mann Bruin in Westwood still has seats for midnight, as do all but a handful of theaters in the Los Angeles area.
On Friday, the are a TOTAL of 3 sell-outs in ALL Movietickets.com serviced theaters within 15 miles of Beverly Hills.
Fandango theaters don't have A SINGLE sell out on Friday. Not one.
The opening is going to be tremendous. But part of this is hype that the media is participating in with the support of Movietickets.com and Fandango, whose only interest is to make YOU think there is a ticketing gridlock and that you need to pay to use their services RIGHT NOW.
And yes, 7p on Friday and Saturday night is going to sell out at most theaters from Santa Monica to Hollywood. But not today. Not even close.
MovieTickets.com has sell outs after midnight Thursday of 66 screenings in 15 theaters. Fandango has 16 post-midnight sell outs in 6 theaters. That's 82 sell outs in LA. 3 More over the weekend. 85. Figure the same in Manhattan and you're at 170.
One more bit of perspective. Even if, against all mathematical logic, there were 4000 sell outs… that’s 4000 sold out shows out of over 150,000 schedules showings of The Dark Knight this weekend.
It's not unnimpressive. But it's not quite the mania being sold out there for love, money or page views.
Posted by dpoland at 05:43 PM | Comments (41)
BYOB - Thursday
YOU!
Posted by dpoland at 11:07 AM | Comments (45)
July 16, 2008
Giving Me A Bat Headache Already
The same daily reports from Movietickets.com and Fandango that are driving the endless blog entries about The Dark Knight’s box office expectations keep hitting my déjà vu button. So I finally went into my e-mail archive…
The Day Before Release -
‘Sex and the City: The Movie’ Enters Top 20 Pre-Sale List of All-Time, MovieTickets.com Reports
LOS ANGELES (May 29, 2008) - MovieTickets.com is reporting that the highly anticipated movie "Sex and the City: The Movie" is currently ranked number 16 on the Internet movie ticketing service’s list of top pre-sale films of all time. The movie ranks with coveted series such as “Star Wars,” “Harry Potter” and “The Lord of the Rings.”
Today, Two Days Before Release –
"Dark Knight" No. 17 MovieTickets.com Pre-seller of All-Time
As the movie ticketing paradigm continues to shift to the online realm, "Dark Knight" continues to make advance ticketing history.
As of Tuesday, three days prior to its release, "Dark Knight" is already No. 17 on MovieTickets.com's Top-20 Pre-Sale List of All-Time, just ahead of "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and "Transformers." MovieTickets.com expects the movie to continue to climb as advance ticket sales increase exponentially today and tomorrow.
The Day Of Release –
'Sex and The City' Breaks into MovieTickets.com's Top 10 Pre-Sale List of All Time
LOS ANGELES (May 30, 2008) -- MovieTickets.com is reporting that the highly anticipated film "Sex and the City: The Movie" finished No. 10 on the Internet movie ticketing service's list of top pre-sale films of all time.
The MovieTickets.com Top 10 Pre-Sale List of All-Time
1. "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith"
2. "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"
3. "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
4. "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour"
5. "The Matrix Reloaded"
6. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
7. "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
8. "Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones"
9. "The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers"
10. "Sex and the City: The Movie"
The Top Ten List Sent Out Yesterday –
MovieTickets.com’s Top-10 Performing Films of All-Time
1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
2. Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
3. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
4. The Passion of The Christ
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
6. Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
7. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
8. Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones
9. Matrix Reloaded
10. Spider-Man 3
Wed Before Opening
"Dark Knight" Dominating Daily Sales
According to MovieTickets.com, "Dark Knight" accounted for 83 percent of online ticket sales Tuesday and 82 percent of ticket sales Wednesday as of 12 p.m. ET.
Wed Before Opening
SEX Rules with 90% of Ticket Sales; Multiple Show Times Already Sold Out
NOW... it seems obvious that The Dark Knight will beat S&TC’s $57 million opening by a good margin. But I keep finding myself rubbing my head and trying to figure out how one of these movies is expected to do more that double the opening, based on these figures… and you will note, almost every single story speaks about these press releases…
Hmmm…
Posted by dpoland at 03:23 PM | Comments (26)
Yet Again... & The Ongoing Paramount Exodus
Just another reminder of the games people play with press release news...
At 9:35a this morning, Michael Fleming ran the news that Par Pub chief Mike Vollman was heading over to UA/MGM and exiting Paramount. Ink isn't dry on the deal, but indeed, the town gossip mill has been on notice that this was happening for weeks now. Apparently, Vollman dropped the "bomb" on his Par bosses on Tuesday.
Who fed the news to Fleming, who has been the town's top phone-call-receiver for years? Not Vollman. Look to the first name in the story for insight.
At 10:06a, Crazy Nikki Finke runs an "exclusive" with fewer details and the "see, I am an insider" schtick of "This is all supposed to be very hush-hush so everyone I've named here is gonna kill me. Sorry, guys, but news is news."
If Nikki had run the gossip last week, it would have been "hush-hush," which is why the many people who knew but did not tell didn't run it a week ago. But my guess is that the same person who called Fleming called Nikki and that Nikki hadn't noticed that it went up on Variety before she started transcribing.
Vollman is actually a fan of Finke... but this intentional leak was not his. Few execs in Hollywood are better at holding their nose and swimming through the crap with a smile and an affirmative argument than Vollman, who did a very good job of cleaning up the mess left by the first wave of this administration slicing and dicing at Paramount, but never really got clear of the bureaucratic thinking that never weighed him down during the DreamWorks years. The step up to marketing chief at UA gets him out of jail free… a card he earned after landing on Unhappy Community Chest for long enough. (No “Chance” here.)
(Nikki also jumped all over a trade report about Amy Pohler getting a new sitcom, this time shortly before the Hollywood Reporter ran their much deeper, fully reported story. This is, actually, how Drudge developed his rep… by stealing major papers’ headline stories before they could run, thus claiming “first” position. Here comes some more paranoia and the compulsion to run stories before they are ready just to avoid being “scooped” by someone not interested in getting it all or getting it right, but just getting it first.)
Fleming correctly reports, "Since Vollman worked closely with Terry Press at DreamWorks, the hire will only accelerate speculation that she is in line for the top post, which has been the rumor for months."
If Press heads to MGM, in spite of telling people that she is happy consulting - and if she did take a job, fall consulting gigs that she already has have to be jettisoned - the last big cog of her marketing team (aside from retired Mitch Kreindel), Chip Sullivan, sits in the job of President of Publicity at DreamWorks. He was a key element in buffering Terry's edge, so he would be missed.
Here is some TOTAL SPECULATION... Stacey Snider & Mary Parent, together again? Team DreamWorks, united again? A DreamWorks/MGM relationship that could actually produce 15 big movies a year and finance a lot of their business through other studios who want Spielberg and/or Cruise and/or Stiller and/or Bond and/or the promise of a high-quality DVD output deal? Again, TOTAL SPECULATION. Other families have split up and been reconstituted elsewhere. And DreamWorks will live in The Adobe on the Universal lot no matter what. But hmmmm….
DreamWorks looks like it will be funded by Reliance, but the ambitions of Reliance seem bigger than DreamWorks’ ambitions. MGM needs reliable funding. That library is actually still enticing and offers stability. It’s also large enough to absorb the overpriced DreamWorks library that Soros floated for Par/DW a couple of years ago without it being painful.
MGM could be the underground railroad for getting DWers out of Paramount without creating a war between the companies as they start the separation process.
I KNOW NOTHING. But hmmmm… it makes more sense than any other story we’re all chewing on right now. For DreamWorks, it would be bigger than just becoming another Imagine, but not as massive a deal to approach as buying NBC Universal. For Harry Sloan, it would make MGM real… right now. Hmmmmm….
Again... it's 100% SPECULATION...
Anyway….
Rumor at Paramount is that Jessica Rovins, who lost the top publicity spot at the studio to Vollman the last time it was up for grabs, will now take the slot for Brad Grey, reporting to the three-headed marketing chiefs for the studio. Vollman exits August 15. We’ll see. My guess is that there will be a skirmish from the Vantage side, looking to place one of theirs in the slot instead of the Grey-Weston associated Rovins.
And by the way - Amy Israel’s exit at Vantage was no surprise after Lesher didn’t take her “upstairs” and the division was reduced to picking up fewer than a half-dozen films a year. The only people who could have been surprised were people who believed that the shutdown of the division was only partial. Expect Israel to land before Aug 1 at some company looking for legitimacy in the now-tough indie market by Toronto… or to wait until October or so to take a job that has her revving up for Sundance/Berlin/Cannes ’09.
Posted by dpoland at 12:10 PM | Comments (4)
July 15, 2008
Sloooooow Week
People are revved up about The Dark Knight, though interestingly, most of the box office hype is coming from Fandango and MovieTickets.com, which are hyping themselves and their services in the process. It feels more like a little like the noise over Sex & The City. Of course, that turned into a $57 million opening weekend... but people are hyping the upcoming one as being almost 2.5 times that big... and if you look at the old ticket pre-sale info, Dark Knight is not at running 2.5 times S&TX's number. Still... anything can happen. The DK vibe is strong... but there is sure to be a lot of controversy around kids under 10 and women once they start seeing the film in droves.
I can't stop singing "Mamma Mia," but I still can't reccomend the film.
Anyway...
There must be SOMETHING else to discuss, right?
Posted by dpoland at 10:06 PM | Comments (64)
Hot Button - Quietly Former-lized News
The Weinstein Co has announced its re-pacting with Showtime... at the expected lower price (the Hollywood Reporter reporting on TWC paying Showtime upfront cash makes little logical sense... there may be smoke and there may be money changing hands, but why and how and how much probably has not yet been uncovered)... which is most likely exactly what Paramount and MGM and Lionsgate will end up doing also.
With The Weinsteins out… MGM building with Mary Parent, but unlikely to be delivering much product to anyone before product that would have been running on Showtime will need someplace to land… Lionsgate having a rough run and 13 films on the schedule for the rest of this year, which means a lot of cash out in marketing and few guarantees of big hits… and Paramount already in flux with the anticipated DreamWorks exit in the months to come and not able to promise more than a half dozen films to a new outlet for cable release in 2009…
It’s independence vs. security. And with all three major players weak… well…
Posted by dpoland at 02:14 PM | Comments (8)
What Does It Cost?!?!
Today, on "What Does It Cost?"...
What does it cost a friendly studio to get a smear on another, less-friendly studio to cover their own financial troubles?
A. Info About A Lunch That US Magazine (And Almost No One Else) REALLY Cares About Via A Studio Head's Producing Partner
B. Something Else
C. Something Else
What does it cost to get attention for your blog?
A. Shred An Actor's Career Without Offering All The Facts
B. Overhype An Upcoming Release’s Opening So That It Can Perform Spectacularly & Still Disappoint At The Box Office
C. Let Powerful People Play Games By Dropping Info Into Your Blog, Not Really Knowing Or Even Trying To Understand The Other Side That Is Not Soliciting You
Posted by dpoland at 12:18 PM | Comments (4)
July 14, 2008
For The Record... Episode One
1. There has been exactly one July opening of over $90 million in history. That was for the first Pirates of the Caribbean sequel, which opened to $136 million. Number two is Spider-Man 2 at $88 million. Transformers did $155m by the end of its first weekend... but that also was 6.5 days worth of box office.
2. The biggest opening weekend EVER for a musical was last summer’s $27 million for Hairspray. The second biggest weekend for a musical EVER was Hairspray’s second weekend of $15.9 million. Third was Dreamgirls with $14.1 million.
3. As to Fox specifically, last year was a bad year after two very, very good years. But to date, this year is up almost 30% at the box office. And oddly enough, studios are judged on box office and not Rotten Tomato scores.
And in 2009? Fox rolls out a franchise parade with Dragonball, Wolverine, Night at The Museum 2, Ice Age 3, and Jim Cameron's Avatar. I think Jim G and Tom R might be smiling through this little down cycle.
4. Yes, the box office is up almost 3% this summer. Remarkable. The reasons are overperformance against expectation by Iron Man, Kung Fu Panda, and Sex & The City.
But as we so often do, we are a bit short sighted on the business. Last summer's Top 6 films did $5.4 billion worldwide. This summer's Top 6 films will be fortunate to total out at $4 billion worldwide.
There were never more than three $700m worldwide films in one summer before last year... there were five in '07. We may have only one this summer with Indy pushing $750m ww and #2, Iron Man, at $565m ww. (Hancock has an outside shot at 700 and is almost certain to be the #2 hit of the summer worldwide.)
So, we will be off by more than 25% worldwide on the top films from last summer to this summer.
And that is not shocking or horrible. It's just reality... the kind of reality that is constantly oversimplified in traditional media blogs and other outlets.
Back to 2008 domestic...
2008 has beaten 2007’s strong numbers in seven of ten weeks. The biggest concern is now that the last two weeks have trended back down.
The Dark Knight seems certain to outdo Bourne 3’s $227m domestic and Hairspray, Chuck & Larry, Rush Hour 3, and Superbad seem likely to be replaced by The Mummy 3, Pineapple Express, Tropic Thunder, and either Mamma Mia! or Step Brothers in the $100 million club. But is there anything close to the $180 million shock payday of The Simpsons Movie (not counting the already accounted for Dark Knight) coming? That looks like a big “no.”
We’re still more than $2 billion dollars away from being 3% up on last years summer total… and we’re at about $2.3 billion now. That’s a long, hard road. And down 3%? We’re still $1.75 billion away from that. It could go either way.
And that wouldn’t be the end of the world either.
Posted by dpoland at 08:19 PM | Comments (13)
For The Record... Episode Two
5. Eddie Murphy has made thirteen movies since 2000. Only THREE have opened to less than $15 million. SEVEN have grossed over $100 million domestic and one more was at $96 million. FOUR were outright bombs... Showtime, The Adventures of Pulto Nash, I Spy, and now, Meet Dave.
In the same period, George Clooney has made fourteen movies... nine have opened to under $15 million... four have grossed over $100 million domestic… six were outright bombs.
Ben Stiller has made thirteen movies… three have opened to less than $15 million… five have grossed over $100 million domestic… three were outright bombs.
Johnny Depp has made sixteen movies… eight have opened to less than $15 million… four have grossed over $100 million domestic… five were outright bombs.
Name – titles / under $15m / over $100m / bombs
Murphy – 13 / 3 / 7 / 4
Clooney – 14 / 9 / 4 / 6
Stiller – 13 / 3 / 5 / 3
Depp – 16 / 8 / 4 / 5
Damon – 15 / 6 / 7 / 3
Pitt – 12 / 5 / 5 / 3
Hanks – 8 / 2 / 5 / 0
So… tell me… aside from Will Smith… who has had the career THAT much better than Eddie Murphy in the last 8 years? Hanks has been closest to a clear topper, but made fewer movies.
I’m not saying that Eddie Murphy is the biggest star in Hollywood right now or that he has not done some embarrassing work. But anyone stupid enough to be trying to write off Murphy's career based on one bomb and a movie that they didn't like, Norbit, but which made money should be mocked and ridiculed, no matter who they are having lunch with.
6. Paramount, as f-ed up as things are, are not losing a financing partner, as per the Financial Times story, but rather outside funding to pay for movies, most of which they do not want to fund. The inclusion of Transformers 2 or the already-shot JJ Abrams Star Trek would be bait to close a deal, not money the studio needs to have to make or release these films.
In fact, just the four films mentioned as expected to be part of the deal - Transformers 2, Star Trek, Tropic Thunder, and Benjamin Button – would, under terms suggested in the FT story (25% of production), represent an investment of $150 million of the $450 total that claims to be intended to cover 30 films.
Considering that if these four films – expected hits- generated $1 billion worldwide, Paramount would have a float of about $100 million on distribution fees alone. That would mean that Deutsche Bank would still be about $100 million in the hole after theatrical while Paramount would be in profit, as a corporation.
And that is projecting 4 significant hits!
Then you have less than $10 million per film under the rest of this package, allegedly meaning that all the films together would average $40 million or less to produce.
As I have been writing for a long while now, with DreamWorks exiting, Brad Grey will have to have remarkable success to survive. But we’ve had no indication of this likelihood to date. If John Lesher is going to do for Paramount what he did for Paramount Vantage, expect the company to have an Oscar or two in the bank and a Chapter 11 filing in the court before 2011.
Viacom and Disney are the only owners of major studios whose primary business is the movie/television/entertainment business. This leaves them more vulnerable to Wall Street's whims based on the performance of films than the other four majors.
But while Viacom is literally a company split in two, Moonves’ CBS vs Grey’s Paramount and Nick Networks, Disney is not only a focused organization, but is pushing a very specific focus more so than any other big company in town. So both sides of Viacom are more vulnerable to Wall Street trouble than any of the other majors.
My prediction remains that Redstone will be forced to either reintegrate his two halves of Viacom, most likely under Moonves, or to sell the Paramount side outright before the next few years pass. Resisting this could, as soon as 2010, force a major sell-off of some major assets from the Paramount side.
The thing is, the timing for Paramount could not be worse. Money is tightening. The value of the library assets is lessening, even as technology will lengthen the life of product. And the price of production and distribution is still going up, even as most studios are working to get out of the movie funding business in all but the most obviously viable product.
There is nothing wrong about making a lot of money on the distribution side this summer from Iron / Indy / Panda. But you can’t keep the massive infrastructure afloat when you have that kind of success and your take is $150 million. It’s on the massive hits that studios make up for the inevitable (and increasingly expensive) flops. Companies can get into the business of hitting doubles and triples financially. But there is a lot of retooling to do and there are not signs of this at Paramount.
The story today was just a minor road hazard. There are craters ahead… and none are any kind of surprise.
Posted by dpoland at 08:17 PM | Comments (19)
Monday In The Park With Dave
The day suddenly got full... running, running...
The revelation of the weekend was the 2.0 update for the iPhone. It's interesting playing with it after reading all the yawning reviews of the new iPhone 3G on Friday. The story is, as many did indicate, the new application store, which you can use from the phone itself, and not so much the new phone. Then the really real story is the transformation of the device via these apps and the potential that adding 3G to those apps creates.
I have never thought of dumping the Blackberry as "the mail phone" and the main phone until now... and I haven't even bought a 3G yet. Between the truly revolutionary website for The New York Times - which isn't just regurgitation, but actually allows you to browse news in a different way, led by photos, not words... and fascinatingly leads with Business and Op-Ed - the AOL Instant messaging services, photo and community site access from most of the big providers, working radio from dozens of internet radio providers, improved gps, video beyond YouTube, and all kinds of wonderful toys, this is an experience that steps as big and wide as the initial iPhone’s use of the touch screen.
When my phone can actually – in a functional way, not a "it should work, but doesn’t quite" way - listen to a song on TV or radio, figure out in less than 20 seconds what the song is, who is singing, and where I can watch a video or buy it on iTunes (a program called Shazam), my phone is no longer just a phone. And it’s not a toy either. It is an integrating life organizer offering real opportunities for business to capitalize on my access.
The very real question for the movie and TV industry of “what is the price point?” remains a problem to consider for the future. And pricing on the majority of paid applications available will make for a fascinating study in the months to come. (With 10 or more Sudoku apps available, will I choose randomly or will I stick with buying the EA branded one because the brand makes me feel safe?)
Anyway…
I think the Obama New Yorker cover “controversy” is a pig in a poke. The false stereotypes exist out there and the more openly discussed they are, the better for Obama and for the country. It’s so lacking in subtlety that I’m not worried about it being popular as “We told you so” fodder outside of a KKK meeting.
And…
Did someone give birth somewhere? Is that the sound of me crying because anyone anywhere who is not friend or family to this couple is really spending more than 10 seconds on what came out of Angelina Jolie? We are a planet of fucking morons sometimes.
Did I Mention…
I am chewing on the fascinating – and quick! – evolution of the Finke-to-Goldstein-To Bart blog revolution. Here is a trio that actually works the same beat much the same way to completely different results. And I’m kinda finding it thrilling. There’s an enormous amount of junk journalism coming out of it. But in the classic 3-is-a-trend of EW thinking, this group is creating their own genre in the e-blogosphere.
I think this notion really started to sink in via the combination of considering Charlie Joffe’s lifespan as a talent manager and the bouncing of some of the same stuff through each of these blogs. Nikki HATES Bob Shaye and Jeff Robinov with the insane obsession of someone who has no idea other than her rage (also vented at Patrick’s BFF, John Horn, who dared to actually do some reporting on her rose-petal covered agency turf) and Patrick is calling them (or their boss) up and running whatever prattle falls from their tongues and pretends he got insight. Meanwhile, PB is over there pissing on Hancock, then running away ("Variety’s own critic wrongly predicted mid-range results" and you, Pete, predicted The Last Action Hero treatment for Will Smith before Hancock assured itself of being no less than the #3 film of the summer in America and probably #2 worldwide, and no worse than the 4th biggest film of Smith's career )… sucking up to Guillermo, then attacking comic book movies… being on the cutting edge of the “children are not going to be a good movie market” bullshit after finally retiring the “teen boys aren’t going to the movies anymore” lie Variety has been selling for the last couple years since Sharon Waxman invented the Fake Slump of 2005, and mocking box office guessing games that Variety has been a leader in for years.
I’m sure I will write more on this in the months to come as three of the best fed, thinnest skinned journalists in town continue to expose themselves, redefine themselves under fire, and expose themselves again. The joy of Blogville is that people actually have to go on the record – even Nikki, who overwrites her many mistakes in recor… uh, reporting (and leaves many others) is seeing that sham figured out by more and more people, though most of her very narrow audience still wants to see her attack people they wish they could attack – and being on record exposes not only what and how you think, but how you do your work.
I, for one, am actually getting more comfortable with Patrick and Peter and Nikki as they circle each other in their Polish firing squad. The old boy’s club of Hollywood (which Nikki pretends she is beyond, when it is all that she has… at least Patrick and Peter smile and shake hands in public with their “sources”) is coming out of the closet. I can live with that. Sunlight is the best disinfectant. And if people want THAT, God bless ‘em. All I have ever wanted from any of these writers or any other journalists on this beat is truth in advertising. And blogging is the Sodium Pentothal of journalism. Toldja!
Posted by dpoland at 11:16 AM | Comments (23)
July 13, 2008
Weekend Estimates by Klady
Posted by dpoland at 12:13 PM | Comments (33)
July 12, 2008
Charlie Joffe, RIP
I have a slightly odd history connected to Charlie Joffe’s business. (I’ve never heard anyone call him anything but “Charlie.” I’m not trying to be disrespectful in any way.) It was my cousin, who also passed away recently, Lenny Maxwell, that brought Jack Rollins and Charlie to see Woody Allen, with whom he was good friends at Tamiment in 1958. At least, that’s how Lenny told the story.
Woody was by far the highest profile driver of the Rollins-Joffe (Oscar in 1978 for Annie Hall) machine. They managed him for a decade before he made his first movie, Take The Money & Run. (He made What's Up, Tiger Lily? by redubbing a Japanese movie in '66, but his management took no credit.)
In 1980, the famous Rollins-Joffe became Rollins, Joffe, Morra, and Brezner with the addition of Buddy Morra and Larry Brezner. Larry was the most aggressive one in the pursuit of the comic-turned-movie-star. At the same time, Bernie Brillstein was also converting management clients into movie stars, most of his flock coming from Saturday Night Live and Second City.
These were, for a few years (which included Brillstein’s addition of Brad Grey), two of the most powerful independent companies in Hollywood. And this was before managers became so much hipper than agents. Comedians converting to movies and TV series was the hot ticket. And these guys let the way from the start.
The company had their first smash together with Arthur, Steve Gordon’s first and last movie, passing away less than four months after the film’s release. Movies like Throw Mama From The Train and Good Morning, Vietnam were defining what producers wanted to make. The Top 15 domestic grossers of 1987 included 6 films led by comics or TV comedians (Tom Selleck and Ted Dansen in 3 Men & Baby, Eddie Murphy in Beverly Hills Cop II, Robin Williams in Good Morning, Vietnam, Michael J. Fox in The Secret of My Success, Crystal & DeVito in Throw Mama, Dan Ackroyd and Tom Hanks in Dragnet).
This was around the same time I came to L.A. and visited the company on my first day in town. I made a friend, who was an assistant, who is now a director, and who opened the door to my first group of friends in this town. I never figured out how to use the relationship with this powerhouse company to my advantage. I didn’t know what I wanted. They set me up on some meetings at Paramount. I didn’t know what to do with those opportunities either.
I met Charlie and Jack a number of times. Heard stories about and from. But can’t say I know much about either, aside from the pleasant words that often flowed about them, tinged with comic edge, especially from comedians who were riding through the company’s power slide. It was my first glimpse of The Country Club that is Hollywood. And my first real insight into how small and human and real it all was.
The Billy Crystal/Robin Williams side of the business was Brezner-Morra. Also starting off in the business under R-J/M-B was Robert Weide, who went on to be an Oscar nominee for a doc and to win awards as Larry David’s main co-producer (with Jeff Garlin and Larry Charles) and director of 26 of 54 episodes of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Mike Binder and Charlie Peters and Todd Graff went through there too, amongst so many.
But that whole game wasn’t really for Joffe and Rollins. They were old school guys. Charlie was around 60 and Jack, 75, when less than a decade into the team-up, the foursome split b